duminică, 9 ianuarie 2011

Seth's Blog : Consider the category of 'without apology'

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Consider the category of 'without apology'

A cop with a Surefire flashlight doesn't have to say to her partner, "I'm sorry my flashlight isn't so bright." It's made without compromise for people who won't compromise.

There are high margins in the business of high-end flatware, for people who don't want to apologize for the lack of an asparagus fork when they have fancy company over.

One of the most vibrant segments of the stereo business is the category of products that are ridiculously expensive (and really good).

Where's the cell phone headset that will appeal to people who don't want to apologize for the quality of their cell phone connection?

People will go out of their way to buy and recommend products that don't require an apology.

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sâmbătă, 8 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Janet Yellen Says Fed Asset Purchases Will Create 3 Million Private Jobs By 2012

Posted: 08 Jan 2011 05:37 PM PST

Fed Governor Janet Yellen is bragging about the number of jobs the Fed is going to create because of its Quantitative Easing programs. Please consider Yellen Says Fed Asset Purchases Create 3 Million Private Jobs
The Federal Reserve's two rounds of asset purchases totaling $2.3 trillion will have helped boost private payrolls by about 3 million jobs by 2012, said Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, citing research by four central bank economists.

Policy makers' November decision to start a second round of asset purchases of $600 billion through June "is intended to support economic recovery from an exceptionally deep recession," the 64-year-old central banker said in the text of a speech today in Denver. "I believe it will be effective in fostering maximum employment and price stability."
Should we add those three million jobs to the 3.5 million jobs Obama wanted to create or save? By the way what happened to those 3.5 million jobs anyway?

I am glad you asked. I was going to figure it out, but a quick search led me to Tracking the 3.5 million jobs President Obama will save or create
This post will track the 3.5 million jobs. There are a number of ways to measure jobs in the US. Some people work several different jobs at a time while others change employers frequently, so measuring jobs is not as simple as it might seem. Obama's economic team define jobs as use the payroll data (see The Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Investment Plan for their original report).

Just before the stimulus bill passed, the Department of Labor [Employment Situation Report For January 2009 Table B1] shows the number of people working was 134,580,000. Using the Obama team methodology, without the stimulus bill employment would be expected to fall by around 1,613,000 jobs during the next two years so that without the stimulus bill we would expect employment to be 132,967,000 in January 2011.

With the revised estimate of 3,500,000 jobs "saved or created", employment should be 136,467,000, creating 1,887,000 in addition to the 1,613,000 jobs saved.
Here is a table from the above link.


Tracking Jobs Created or Saved
Date Number of Jobs Change in Jobs

After Stimulus

Number of Jobs needed

to reach target by Jan 2011

January 2009 134,333,000 1,887,000
February 2009 133,652,000 -681,000 2,568,000
March 2009 133,000,000 -1,333,000 3,220,000
April 2009 132,481,000 -1,852,000 3,739,000
May 2009 132,178,000 -2,155,000 4,042,000
June 2009 131,715,000 -2,618,000 4,505,000
July 2009 131,411,000 -2,922,000 4,809,000
August 2009 131,257,000 -3,076,000 4,963,000
Sept. 2009 131,118,000 -3,215,000 5,102,000
October 2009 130,991,000 -3,342,000 5.229,000
November 2009 130,995,000 -3,338,000 5.225,000
December 2009 130,910,000 -3,423,000 5.310,000

Some of the data in the table has been revised. For example, the BLS Employment Situation Report for December 2010 (see Table B1) shows that December 2009 has now been revised down to 129,588,000.

The key number however, is December 2010. Drum roll please.......
The just released report shows 130,710,000 jobs.

Let's do the math. 130,710,000 - 134,580,000 = -3,870,000. The president expected to create or save 3.5 million jobs. Instead he lost 3.87 million jobs. That is a whopping deficit of 7.37 million jobs.

Now Janet Yellen thinks the Fed is going to create 3 million jobs by the end of this year. Let's do that math, too. 3 million divided by 12 is 250,000 jobs a month. Does anyone believe that?

Should we add that total to the current deficit of 7.37 million jobs? If by some miracle we do create 250,000 jobs a month does the Fed get credit for them, President Obama, or the man in the moon?

More importantly where does she start? A year ago? It really does not matter because there is technically no way to prove her wrong. No matter what happens to jobs, she can say it would have been 3 million jobs worse without QE. President Obama can twist his words and say the same thing "It would have been 3 million worse".

That is the problem with bullsweet statements pulled out of one's ass, like Yellen made and Obama before her.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Republican Introduce Bill to Eliminate Presidential Czars; How Many Czars are There? Obama on Czars Then vs. Now; Vanity of Barack Obama

Posted: 08 Jan 2011 12:05 PM PST

President Obama has an army of Czars. Counts vary from 32 to 45 (with 7 more planned). The interesting thing about Czars is Obama's blatant hypocrisy about them. Let's start with a look at Obama and his 32 czars
"The biggest problems that we're facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all. And that's what I intend to reverse when I'm president of the United States."

- Sen. Barack Obama, March 31, 2008

To say President Obama failed to follow through on this promise is an understatement. By appointing a virtual army of "czars" - each wholly unaccountable to Congress yet tasked with spearheading major policy efforts for the White House - the president has made an end-run around the legislative branch of historic proportions.
The Imperial Court

Please consider The Compleat List of Czars

  1. Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) czar, Richard Holbrooke
  2. AIDS czar, Jeffrey Crowley
  3. Auto recovery czar, Ed Montgomery
  4. Behavioral science czar, position not yet filled
  5. Bailout czar, Herbert Allison Jr., [replaced Bush bailout czar Neel Kashkari, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability confirmed by Senate]
  6. Border czar, Alan Bersin
  7. Car czar, Ron Bloom [Counselor to the Secretary of the Treasury , under Senate oversight]
    UPDATE, 9/07/09: Obama announced his appointment of Ron Bloom as "senior counselor for manufacturing policy," a move that will eliminate Senate oversight. This position has been dubbed "manufacturing czar" and so this listing moves to a different alphabetical location.
    UPDATE, 9/08/09: My bad. Ron Bloom continues as car czar and takes the appointment as manufacturing czar. He will be double dipping.
  8. Climate change czar, Todd Stern
  9. Copyright czar, not appointed yet
  10. Counterterrorism czar, John Brennan
  11. Cybersecurity czar, position will be vacant on August 21st [upon the departure of Melissa Hathaway]
  12. Disinformation czar, Linda Douglass [This is a new media buzz since our earlier list, a response by pundits to the White House request for informants: see Glenn Beck and Lew Rockwell]
  13. Domestic violence czar, Lynn Rosenthal
  14. Drug czar, Gil Kerlikowske
  15. Economic czar, Larry Summers
  16. Economic czar number two, Paul Volcker
  17. Education czar, Arne Duncan
  18. Energy czar, Carol Browner
  19. Food czar, Michael Taylor [a former Monsanto executive, or, the fox in charge of the henhouse]
  20. Government performance czar, Jeffrey Zients
  21. Great Lakes czar, Cameron Davis
  22. Green jobs czar, Van Jones [who has a communist background]
    UPDATE, 9/06/09, Van Jones resigned after an exposé by Glenn Beck.
  23. Guantanamo closure czar, Daniel Fried
  24. Health czar, Nancy-Ann DeParle
  25. Infotech czar, Vivek Kundra [Shoplifted four shirts, worth $33.50 each, from J.C. Penney in 1996 (source). His last day in DC government was March 4 but on March 12 the FBI raided his office and arrested two staffers.]
  26. Intelligence czar, Dennis Blair [Director of National Intelligence, a Senate confirmed position. He is a retired United States Navy four-star admiral]
  27. Latin-American czar, Arturo Valenzuela (nominee) [although this post is referred to as a czar, he is nominatied to be Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs and so is subject to Senate confirmation. Voting on his confirmation was delayed to clarify his position on Honduras. Watch WaPo's Head Count to track status of confirmation.]
  28. Manufacturing czar, Ron Bloom, formerly a "car czar" under Senate oversight, now reporting directly to the President.
    UPDATE from Labor Day.
  29. Mideast peace czar, George Mitchell
  30. Mideast policy czar, Dennis Ross
  31. Pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg
  32. Regulatory czar, Cass Sunstein
  33. Religion czar, aka God czar Joshua DuBois
  34. Safe schools czar, Kevin Jennings [appointed to be Assistant Deputy Secretary of the Office of Safe and Drug-Free Schools, a newly created post (that does not require Senate confirmation); openly gay founder of an organization dedicated to promoting pro-homosexual clubs and curricula in public schools]
  35. Science czar, John Holdren
  36. Stimulus oversight czar, Earl Devaney
  37. Sudan czar, J. Scott Gration
  38. TARP czar, Elizabeth Warren [chair of the [Congressional Oversight Panel for the Trouble Assets Relief Program; note that Herb Allison is frequently called the TARP czar]
  39. Technology czar, Aneesh Chopra
  40. Trade czar, Ron Kirk
  41. Urban affairs czar, Adolfo Carrion
  42. War czar, Douglas Lute [retained from Bush administration, married to Jane Holl Lute, currently a Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security]
  43. Water czar, David J. Hayes [a Deputy Interior Secretary and therefore subject to Senate oversight]
  44. Weapons czar, Ashton Carter [actually Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics and so subject to Senate confirmation]
  45. Weapons of mass destruction czar, Gary Samore

Positions being planned:

  1. Income redistribution czar
  2. Land-use czar
  3. Mortgage czar, formally "consumer financial protection czar" (source)
  4. Radio-internet fairness czar
    UPDATE, 7/29/09: Mark Lloyd was appointed FCC diversity czar.
  5. Student loan czar, to oversee a program of mandatory service in return for college money (source)
  6. Voter list czar
  7. Zoning czar

Enough is Enough (and Too Much is Too Much)

Republicans have had enough of this nonsense. The Hill reports Republicans introduce bill to eliminate presidential 'czars'
Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and 28 other House Republicans introduced legislation to do away with the informal, paid advisers President Obama has employed over the past two years.

The legislation, which was introduced in the last Congress but was not allowed to advance under Democratic control, would do away with the 39 czars Obama has employed during his administration.

The bill defines a czar as "a head of any task force, council, policy office within the Executive Office of the President, or similar office established by or at the direction of the President" who is appointed to a position that would otherwise require Senate confirmation.

Republicans had complained about the president's use of czars to help advance his agenda in Congress. In particular, the GOP had harped about the personal history of Van Jones, the president's czar for "green jobs," over past comments Jones had made about Fox News came to light. Jones eventually resigned.

Another prominent czar over the past year was Carol Browner, the president's energy and environmental adviser. She helped head up efforts in response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, and the ultimately unsuccessful effort for an energy and climate bill from Congress.
The vanity of Barack Obama

Inquiring minds are reading American Narcissus regarding the vanity of Barack Obama.
Obama's vanity is even more jarring when paraded in the foreign arena. In April, Poland suffered a national tragedy when its president, first lady, and a good portion of the government were killed in a plane crash. Obama decided not to go to the funeral. He played golf instead. Though maybe it's best that he didn't make the trip. When he journeyed to Great Britain to meet with the queen he gave her an amazing gift: an iPod loaded with recordings of his speeches and pictures from his inauguration.

On November 9, 2009, Europe celebrated the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. It was kind of a big deal.

When the leaders of Europe got together to commemorate it, he decided not to go to that, either. But he did find time to record a video message, which he graciously allowed the Europeans to air during the ceremony.

In his video, Obama ruminated for a few minutes on the grand events of the 20th century, the Cold War itself, and the great lesson we all should take from this historic passing:

"Few would have foreseen .  .  . that a united Germany would be led by a woman from Brandenburg or that their American ally would be led by a man of African descent. But human destiny is what human beings make of it."

The fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War, and the freedom of all humanity—it's great stuff. Right up there with the election of Barack Obama.

In the presidential race in 2012. As he said to Harry Reid after the majority leader congratulated him on one particularly fine oration, "I have a gift, Harry."

But Obama's faith in his abilities extends beyond mere vote-getting. Buried in a 2008 New Yorker piece by Ryan Lizza about the Obama campaign was this gob-smacking passage:

I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I'll tell you right now that I'm gonna think I'm a better political director than my political director." After Obama's first debate with McCain, on September 26th, [campaign political director Patrick] Gaspard sent him an e-mail. "You are more clutch than Michael Jordan," he wrote. Obama replied, "Just give me the ball."

It's important to remember that our presidents aren't always this way. When he accepted command of the Revolutionary forces, George Washington said "I feel great distress, from a consciousness that my abilities and military experience may not be equal to the extensive and important Trust. .  .  . I beg it may be remembered, by every Gentleman in the room, that I, this day, declare with the utmost sincerity, I do not think myself equal to the Command I am honored with."
We need to reduce the deficit. We can make a tiny contribution by getting rid of 49 unneeded czars.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Kern County CA to Impose Contract on Unions; Time for a CA Reality Check; Half Moon Bay, Bell Face Bankruptcy; Brown Seeks Voter Approval for Tax Hike

Posted: 08 Jan 2011 09:24 AM PST

News has been flying in California the past few weeks over more budget concerns. Those budget problems will not go away until structural problems are fixed. That mean serious concessions across the board by public unions. Instead, Governor Brown may seek a referendum to raise taxes.

Rounding out the news, a couple of California cities face immediate bankruptcy, University of California executives have made outrageous pension demands, and Kern County California is playing hardball with public unions.

Kern County to Impose Contract on Public Unions

Please consider County-union mediation fails
Kern County government and its largest union have failed to reach an agreement during contract mediation, setting up a final decision by county supervisors about how to handle negotiations with thousands of their employees.

Negotiators with the Service Employees International Union, Local 521 notified union members Thursday that the mediation process had broken down and they should expect supervisors to impose the contract they want.

That contract does two things -- makes all employees in the union pay 20 percent of their health-care premiums and require thousands of workers who currently do not pay into to their pensions to begin making contributions from each paycheck.

Regina Kane, president of the Kern County chapter of SEIU 521, said supervisors have followed a firm course toward this date, failing to budge an inch when the unions proposed other ways to cut costs and save money that supervisors argued was critical to balance county budgets.

Kane said her members -- especially the most modest workers who handle the county's front-line public services -- will be devastated by the pay reductions.

"Many of our employees will be losing cars and losing homes," she said.

She said many of the county employees who are eligible for retirement will seize the opportunity and leave. Even if, Kane said, some of those jobs are filled, it will take months to bring new workers on board and train them.

"The public service system will be overloaded," she said.
A "Start"

I commend Kern County. Standing up to the unions is a start. However, 50% to their health-care costs would be a better start, and I do not see anything being done about pension benefits.

Nonetheless, not bargaining with unions is the correct approach. I suggest a 1 year imposition then next year attacking pension benefits.

Regina Kane whines "many of the county employees who are eligible for retirement will seize the opportunity and leave".

To that I say hooray! Let's hope 100% of them leave. New employees should be put into defined contribution plans. Better yet, the county should simply outsource every job and be done with it.

The correct way to deal with the SEIU is to not deal with them at all.

Kern County Map



Now, if only Los Angeles or Orange County would do the same thing. It is time for serious hardball. Complete elimination of every union should be the goal.

Bell California on Brink of Insolvency

The Los Angeles Times reports Bell nearly broke, faces drastic cuts, audit finds
Scandal-plagued Bell is hovering on the brink of insolvency and drastic cuts in city services — including disbanding the Police Department — probably will be necessary to fix its finances, according to a review of the city's books that Los Angeles County officials plan to release next month.

The report by the Los Angeles County auditor-controller paints the most dire financial picture yet of the southeast Los Angeles County city, where eight current and former city officials have been charged in a sweeping public corruption case. The findings were discussed with The Times by officials familiar with its contents who spoke on condition of anonymity because the document remains under wraps.

The review found that Bell has been running a deficit totaling several million dollars over at least the last three years under former Chief Administrative Officer Robert Rizzo. The red ink is the result of hefty salaries and pensions for top Bell officials and extensive city-run programs, the review found. To cover part of the deficit, city officials took money raised by the sale of bonds for specific projects and diverted it to the general fund, a likely violation of the law, according to experts on municipal finance.
Easy Decision in Bell

There is nothing for Bell to even think about here. The city is bankrupt. The correct solution is to declare bankruptcy, disband the police union, and outsource 100% of city services eliminating 100% of public union contracts.

Half Moon Bay Faces Financial Brink

The Wall Street Journal reports Half Moon Bay Faces Financial Brink
This coastal city next month will begin an aggressive campaign to warn residents of severe budget cuts that lie ahead, as the cash-strapped town tries to avert insolvency.

Laura Snideman, appointed earlier this month as Half Moon Bay's city manager, says she and the five-member city council and top managers will meet in the next few weeks with residents to alert them about impending changes, such as potentially outsourcing the town's 15-person police department to an outside agency.

"The choices are no longer hard, they're painful," says Ms. Snideman, formerly an economic development manager in the city of San Mateo. She adds that she hopes by making the case for cuts, some residents will offer ideas or even volunteer to save some services and programs.

The campaign is the latest development in Half Moon Bay's long and winding financial descent, which has made it a poster child of the problems plaguing Bay Area municipalities. While many towns face budget gaps, Half Moon Bay is in especially tough straits. The city already has outsourced some public-works services, including trash, building inspection and health-code enforcement to independent contractors and private companies.

The city of 13,000 is essentially "turning into a functionally unincorporated locale," says Christopher Thornberg, a principal at consultancy Beacon Economics in San Rafael. "They're pretty much a city in name only, having turned over or outsourced most of their essential services."
Easy Decision in Half Moon Bay

There is nothing for Half Moon Bay to even think about here. The city is bankrupt. The correct solution is to declare bankruptcy, disband the police union, and outsource 100% of city services eliminating 100% of public union contracts.

Outrageous Benefits Demands by University of California Executives

More people sent me an email on regarding this article than any other news story ever. The San Francisco Chronicle reports Highest-paid UC execs demand millions in benefits
Three dozen of the University of California's highest-paid executives are threatening to sue unless UC agrees to spend tens of millions of dollars to dramatically increase retirement benefits for employees earning more than $245,000.

"We believe it is the University's legal, moral and ethical obligation" to increase the benefits, the executives wrote the Board of Regents in a Dec. 9 letter and position paper obtained by The Chronicle.

"Failure to do so will likely result in a costly and unsuccessful legal confrontation," they wrote, using capital letters to emphasize that they were writing "URGENTLY."

The 36 executives who signed the letter include Mark Laret, chief executive officer of UCSF Medical Center; Christopher Edley Jr., dean of the UC Berkeley law school; and Marie Berggren, chief investment officer for the UC system.

They want UC to calculate retirement benefits as a percentage of their entire salaries, instead of the federally instituted limit of $245,000. The difference would be significant for the more than 200 UC employees who currently earn more than $245,000.
Amazing Arrogance

Of all the stories regarding public workers that I have seen, this ranks among the most galling and disgusting of them.

How any public employees can think they deserve those demands just shows how outrageous the sense of entitlement of public workers is from top to bottom.

Tuition costs are obscene and it is because of contracts like these. Benefits need to be cut dramatically, not increased.

Fortunately, there is some good news to report: High-paid UC executives denied retirement benefits increase by UC Regents

The issue may be headed to court. By the way, I have had many people who work for the University of California writing to complain about how outrageous those demands were.

Time for a Reality Check - California is Broken

Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Republican 73rd Assembly District, and Vice-Chair of the Appropriations Committee says it's Time for a Reality Check – California is Broken
Noted "straight talker," State Treasurer Bill Lockyer, must be living in another California. In a recent Los Angeles Times editorial ("California Isn't Broken"), he suggests that criticisms of California's fiscal and economic problems are overblown.

While I agree that the state will repay its bond debt, I strongly disagree that we are helpless victims of the recession. Our 12.4 percent unemployment, unfriendly business climate and runaway state spending must be addressed if we are to pull out of our financial abyss.

It's time for straight talk and a reality check. Blaming the recent economic downturn for California's woes ignores many of the deeper underlying problems.

Treasurer Lockyer quickly passes over the fact that California's unemployment rate is the second highest in the country. Our state lost 1.2 million private sector jobs from October 2007 to October 2010. More than 141,000 people left California during a twelve month period in 2008-09 because they could not find work. Jobs and opportunity continue to disappear because of high taxes, costly regulations and job-killer policies.

For the fifth year in a row, Chief Executive magazine rated California as the worst state in the country to do business. According to CNBC's 2010 ranking of "America's Top States for Business," California ranked 48th amongst the 50 states for the cost of doing business. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation found that California has the nation's second-worst business tax climate. California taxpayers pay the highest sales and gas taxes in the nation, and some of the highest top personal income taxes.

Straight talking, state government has been spending more than it receives in revenues for over 10 years. 70 percent of our General Fund spending is locked-in due to big-government program growth and auto-pilot appropriations. Our accumulating debt to fund operations consumes an increasingly larger portion of the revenue pie, as our state annually maxes out its credit cards and pays higher risk adjusted interest rates on its debt.

Despite Mr. Lockyer's assertions that California isn't broken, ignoring reality will only further jeopardize our state's fiscal stability. California will remain broken until we get government out of the way of job growth and come together behind a long-term plan to streamline and restructure the way the state does business. Only then will we be able to balance our budget once-and-for all.
Solution Far More Difficult than Harkey Lays Out

Harkey wants the state to "stop borrowing and live within our means." One line soundbites make things seem far easier than they are.

To live within means will require huge structural changes including properly addressing public worker wages and benefits, not just public union wages and benefits. It will also require an overhaul of the prison system, public worker pensions, health services, immigration, the universities, and education in general.

It is by no means as simple as the phrase "stop borrowing and live within our means" makes it sound.

Governor Brown's Day of Reckoning

Bloomberg reports Brown May Cut Aid, Ask Voters to Extend Tax Increases

Jerry Brown returns as California governor today after an absence of almost three decades, facing a "day of reckoning" over a $28 billion budget gap that promises battles with lawmakers, unions and investors threatening to shun the bonds of the most-indebted state.

Brown, 72, a Democrat who served two terms as governor from 1975 to 1983, has pledged an austerity budget, due Jan. 10, that will be free from gimmicks and that will skirt the gridlock that forced the state to pay bills with IOUs two years ago. He's told Californians they'll face painful choices to restore fiscal health. Whether that will mean higher taxes, he hasn't said.

"Please sit down if you're reading the stories on the budget on Jan. 10," Brown told educators in Los Angeles last month. "If you're driving, fasten your seat belt, because it's going to be a rough ride."

Brown has said he wants a budget to erase the nation's largest state deficit approved within 60 days. That task was eased by voters' decision in November to allow lawmakers to authorize spending plans with a simple majority, doing away with a 77-year-old rule requiring a two-thirds vote.

"The day of reckoning is upon us and I'm determined to bite the bullet and get it done," Brown said in Los Angeles last month.

Brown is likely to propose even more cuts and call for a special election to ask voters for money, said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the Edmund G. Brown Institute of Public Affairs -- named for Jerry Brown's father, himself a former governor -- at California State University, Los Angeles. Options include extending temporary tax increases on income, retail sales and vehicle registrations put in place in 2009. They are set to expire this year.

The governor inherits the nation's third-highest unemployment rate at 12.4 percent, what the treasurer's office says is $88.3 billion of bond debt and as much as $500 billion of pension liabilities following the longest recession since World War II.

While Democrats control both Senate and Assembly, they lack a so-called supermajority of 60 percent. Starting a ballot measure that would extend temporary levies, or increase taxes and fees, would need the assent of two-thirds of lawmakers or a citizen initiative drive.

Curbing the cost of state workers' salaries and their pensions may put Brown at odds with the labor unions that supported his campaign, such as the 120,000-member California Federation of Teachers. The state will spend $9.2 billion on payroll this year, according to the Finance Department. Payments to the two public-employee pensions, the largest in the U.S., will consume 5 percent of the general fund.

Brown signed legislation during his first term that gave teachers and state workers the right to bargain collectively, which Schwarzenegger and other Republicans repeatedly criticized.
Brown Helped Create This Mess

Governor Brown is largely responsible for this mess. The last paragraph above says much of what you need to know: "Brown signed legislation during his first term that gave teachers and state workers the right to bargain collectively"

It is time for Brown to put an end to collective bargaining.

California Republicans pressed to honor no-tax pledge

Reuters reports California Republicans pressed to honor no-tax pledge
A prominent Washington activist is calling on Republican lawmakers in California to stick to an anti-tax pledge, a risk to a special election for raising revenue that Governor Jerry Brown is widely expected to ask the legislature to support.

The pressure came in the form of a letter sent on Thursday by Grover Norquist, head of Americans for Tax Reform, a heavyweight conservative advocacy group. In it he told Republicans that "Voting to send tax increases to the ballot would violate the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, a written commitment that you made to your constituents to 'oppose any and all efforts to raise taxes'."

"I urge you to stand up for California taxpayers by opposing Governor Brown's efforts to refer higher taxes to the ballot, and in doing so, uphold your central campaign commitment to oppose any and all efforts to raise taxes in the already over-taxed Golden State," Norquist added.

Patrick Gleason, state affairs director at Americans for Tax Reform, said the letter marks the start of a broader campaign against efforts to raise taxes in California.

"This is the opening salvo," Gleason said.
With 12.4 percent unemployment, among the worst in the nation, coupled with a business environment that is the worst in the nation, the last thing California needs is a tax hike.

What California does needs is an end of public union collective bargaining, scrapping of prevailing wage laws, an end of defined benefit packages for public workers, and a complete overhaul of the prison system.

That is nowhere close to everything that needs to be done, but that would be a very good start.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Good and Bad News


The White House, Washington


Good afternoon,

Yesterday, we got some good news about the American economy.

113,000 new private sector jobs were created by America’s businesses in December, the twelfth consecutive month of positive job growth in this country.  In 2010, 1.3 million private sector jobs were added, the strongest job growth since 2006.  And thanks to strong jobs numbers during the fourth quarter of 2010, our unemployment rate has dropped .4 percentage points to 9.4%.

These numbers are encouraging, but the fact remains there are still too many Americans who are out of work and too many families who are struggling to get by in these tough times.

In his weekly address, President Obama discusses the jobs numbers and the importance of working together to grow our economy:

Growing our economy and creating jobs is President Obama's number one priority.

That's why the President worked so hard to extend tax cuts for the middle class and unemployment insurance for folks who are looking for work. These measures will help provide a vital boost to help spur stronger economic growth and job creation by America’s businesses in 2011 and provide some relief for families who are still struggling.

Now to the bad news. The new Congress seems more interested in re-hashing the political battles of the past two years than in moving our economy forward.

This week, the new Congress has, as its first act, announced their plans to attempt to repeal the law.  While this move isn't surprising, it is disappointing, particularly since repealing the health care law would increase costs for families and businesses, hand control back to insurance companies to deny, drop or limit your coverage, and reduce job growth.

In addition, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office found that repealing the law would add more than a trillion dollars to the deficit over two decades.

Our focus in the coming months must be on creating jobs and growing the economy.  We simply can't afford the symbolic battles and politics as usual in Washington.

Sincerely,

David Axelrod
Senior Advisor to the President

P.S. Yesterday President Obama discussed this important news and announced new members of his economic team.  You can watch a video of his remarks and  learn more about them here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/jobsnumbers


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Your Weekly Address: Tax Cuts Kicking In

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Saturday, Jan. 8,  2011
 

Your Weekly Address: Tax Cuts Kicking In

The President touts the new benefits coming from the tax cut compromise for any business large or small, tens of millions of workers and families, and the economy itself.

Watch the video.

Weekly Address

Weekly Wrap Up

Quote: “We will not rest until we have fully recovered from this recession and we have reached that brighter day,” said President Obama during his visit to Thompson Creek Manufacturing in Landover, Maryland to see an example of a company that is beginning to thrive, and to hear what role his Administration's actions have had. Watch the video. See the latest jobs chart.

New Chief of StaffPresident Obama explains why Bill Daley is the right person to take the reins. Watch the video.

Repealing the Affordable Care Act: A look at how repealing the Act would hurt the economy. Read the post. And what it would cost families, seniors, small businesses, states… Read the post.

West Wing Week: Resolutions: The first family returns to Washington, the President signs over 30 bills into law, and West Wing staff share their New Year's resolutions. Watch the video.

Notable Number: 5. President Obama signs 5 bills into law that will protect environmental and public health, and help rebuild our economy on a stronger foundation. Read the post.

The Employment Situation: Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, explains the jobs numbers. Read the post.

Top 10 of 2010: As we start a new year, we bring you the White House blog's top ten most popular posts and the most viewed videos from the White House YouTube channel.

The Future of @PressSec: Press Secretary Robert Gibbs answers the flood of questions that came in on what he's doing next. Watch the video.

Welcoming Holly Petraeus: Elizabeth Warren of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announces that Holly Petraeus will take on a new role at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Read the post.

On Twitter: @RayLahoodYes-- Han Solo, Indiana Jones can really fly those things! Thanks for using fame to boost #aviationhttp://bit.ly/fcYJKm

White House Internship: The White House welcomes over 100 interns into 18 different departments across the Administration. Don’t miss your chance to apply. Learn more.

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Seth's Blog : The sure-fire recipe for business success

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The sure-fire recipe for business success

Wait, I was confused. There's a sure-fire recipe for delicious chocolate chip cookies. There is in fact a magic formula.

For businesses, not so much. There isn't one secret, one process, one solution. Instead, there are a thousand or maybe a million.

It's not a jigsaw puzzle, it's a strand of DNA, easily rearranged and sometimes it even works.  For a while.

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vineri, 7 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Reader Question Regarding "Dropping Out of the Workforce"; Implications of the Falling Participation Rate

Posted: 07 Jan 2011 08:42 PM PST

In response to BLS Job Report: December Nonfarm Payrolls +103,000, November Revision +32,000, October Revision +38,000; Workforce DROPS by 260,000, reader "Aleph" wants to know how someone drops out of the workforce.

Aleph writes ...
Hello Mish

Can you explain to your readership how the government determines that a person has dropped out of the labor force, as opposed to running out of unemployment benefits and becoming desperate (or homeless) with no job and no decent prospects? Or do they make no distinction between voluntarily leaving the work force and involuntarily leaving it?

"Dropping out" sounds much less dire than being unemployed because there aren't enough jobs to go around.

Thanks,

Aleph
Ways of Dropping Out

Hello Aleph, someone drops out of the workforce in one four general ways.

1. They stop looking for work
2. They retire
3. They go back to school full time and are unavailable for work
4. They are institutionalized (prison for example)

The big numbers come from 1, 2, and 3 with #1 leading the pack.

If a person wants a job, is available for a job and keeps looking for a job, that person is unemployed. I suspect most retirees, stop looking.

Note that number 2 may be voluntary or involuntary. An example of an involuntary retirement is someone who wants work to work but retires because he has expired all his 99 weeks of benefits and desperately needs to start collecting social security before he goes homeless.

All of this is determined by a phone survey. The BLS attempts to determine the following

1. Are you employed full time?
2. Are you employed part time?
3. Do you want a job?
4. Are you available for a job?
5. Have you looked for a job in the last four weeks?

  • A Yes to #1 or #2, no matter how few hours someone worked (exceptions apply for unpaid family workers) puts someone in the "EMPLOYED" category.
  • A No to #3, #4 (except for temporary illness), or #5 would put someone in the "NOT IN THE WORKFORCE" category.
  • A No to #1 and #2, and a Yes to #3, #4 (except for temporary illness), and #5 puts someone in the "UNEMPLOYED" category.
  • Those employed or unemployed are considered "IN THE WORKFORCE"

However, the BLS does not ask those questions directly. Rather the phone interview attempts to figure the answers to those questions.

How the Government Measures Unemployment

Please consider How the Government Measures Unemployment
There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States.

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.

Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household.

Each person is classified according to the activities he or she engaged in during the reference week. Then, the total numbers are "weighted," or adjusted to independent population estimates (based on updated decennial census results). The weighting takes into account the age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and State of residence of the person, so that these characteristics are reflected in the proper proportions in the final estimates.

Because these interviews are the basic source of data for total unemployment, information must be factual and correct. Respondents are never asked specifically if they are unemployed, nor are they given an opportunity to decide their own labor force status. Unless they already know how the Government defines unemployment, many of them may not be sure of their actual classification when the interview is completed.

Similarly, interviewers do not decide the respondents' labor force classification. They simply ask the questions in the prescribed way and record the answers. Based on information collected in the survey and definitions programmed into the computer, individuals are then classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

What are the basic concepts of employment and unemployment?

The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:

  • People with jobs are employed.
  • People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
  • People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.

Unpaid Family Workers

But what about the two following cases?

  • George Lewis is 16 years old, and he has no job from which he receives any pay or profit. However, George does help with the regular chores around his father's farm and spends about 20 hours each week doing so.
  • Lisa Fox spends most of her time taking care of her home and children, but she helps in her husband's computer software store all day Friday and Saturday.

Under the Government's definition of employment, both George and Lisa are considered employed. They fall into a group called "unpaid family workers," which includes any person who worked without pay for 15 hours or more per week in a family-owned enterprise operated by someone in their household.

Interview Questions

The questions used in the interviews are carefully designed to elicit the most accurate picture of each person's labor force activities. Some of the major questions that determine employment status are: (The capitalized words are emphasized when read by the interviewers.)

1. Does anyone in this household have a business or a farm?
2. LAST WEEK, did you do ANY work for (either) pay (or profit)?
If the answer to question 1 is "yes" and the answer to question 2 is "no," the next question is:
3. LAST WEEK, did you do any unpaid work in the family business or farm?
For those who reply "no" to both questions 2 and 3, the next key questions used to determine employment status are:
4. LAST WEEK, (in addition to the business,) did you have a job, either full or part time? Include any job from which you were temporarily absent.
5. LAST WEEK, were you on layoff from a job?
6. What was the main reason you were absent from work LAST WEEK?
For those who respond "yes" to question 5 about being on layoff, the following questions are asked:
7. Has your employer given you a date to return to work?
and, if "no,"
8. Have you been given any indication that you will be recalled to work within the next 6 months?
If the responses to either question 7 or 8 indicate that the person expects to be recalled from layoff, he or she is counted as unemployed. For those who were reported as having no job or business from which they were absent or on layoff, the next question is:
9. Have you been doing anything to find work during the last 4 weeks?
For those who say "yes," the next question is:
10. What are all of the things you have done to find work during the last 4 weeks?
If an active method of looking for work, such as those listed at the beginning of this section, is mentioned, the following question is asked:
11. LAST WEEK, could you have started a job if one had been offered?
If there is no reason, except temporary illness, that the person could not take a job, he or she is considered to be not only looking but also available for work and is counted as unemployed.

Who is not in the labor force?

Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces. As mentioned previously, the labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.

To summarize, employed persons are:

  • All persons who did any work for pay or profit during the survey week.
  • All persons who did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a family-owned enterprise operated by someone in their household.
  • All persons who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs because of illness, vacation, bad weather, industrial dispute, or various personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off.

Unemployed persons are:
  • All persons who did not have a job at all during the survey reference week, made at least one specific active effort to find a job during the prior 4 weeks, and were available for work (unless temporarily ill).
  • All persons who were not working and were waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been laid off (they need not be looking for work to be classified as unemployed). -
One More Exception

Based on an example in the article, those out of work because of a labor dispute are considered employed even if they are looking for another job during the dispute.

Finally, please note that the official unemployment rate is solely based on the household phone survey as described above. It may not bear any resemblance to the weekly unemployment claims numbers or the monthly establishment jobs report.

Participation Rate, Employment Population Ratio, and Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

The above chart from The Declining Participation Rate by Calculated Risk.

The falling participation rate reflects the number of people dropping out of the workforce. It is falling for two reasons. People have given up looking for a job and also because of demographics (people retiring as the boomer population ages). The predominant reason is people have stopped looking for a job.

Here are my posts on Creative Destruction, referenced in the chart above.


The workforce should be expanding by 100,000 to 125,000 jobs a month. Instead it is falling like a rock. This is a very deflationary event. It stops credit expansion, and it reflects retirees needing to draw down on their savings, pulling money out of the stock market.

Stock market pressures are negative when people need to get out or they fear further loses in their retirement accounts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


BLS Job Report: December Nonfarm Payrolls +103,000, November Revision +32,000, October Revision +38,000; Workforce DROPS by 260,000

Posted: 07 Jan 2011 10:42 AM PST

Following ADP's report of private-sector employment at +297,000, the BLS reported private sector employment at +113,000 and an overall nonfarm total of +103,000 well under expectations of about +175,000 jobs. However, there were substantial backward revisions to note.

Revisions

  • November nonfarm payroll revised from +39,000 to +71,000 a gain of +32,000.
  • November private payroll revised from +50,000 to +79,000, a gain of +29,000.
  • October nonfarm payroll revised from +172,000 to +210,000 a gain of +38,000.
  • October private payroll revised from +160,000 to +193,000, a gain of +33,000.
  • Combined nonfarm payroll revision +70,000.
  • Combined private payroll revision +62,000

If those back revisions were instead added into today's numbers, nonfarm payrolls would be +173,000 and private sector jobs at +175,000. Those would have been good, but not amazing numbers.

However, a better way of looking at things is via the revisions. We had a better than expected seasonal ramp of jobs in October followed by subpar job growth in November (even after the revisions), and subpar growth in December as well.

This is along the lines that I have suggested several times: limited hiring following seasonal retail hiring.

260,000 Drop Out of Work Force

The reported unemployment rate fell a substantial .4% to 9.4%. However, much of that that gain is a statistical mirage. The BLS reports a whopping 260,000 people dropped out of the work force. As a result the participation rate fell to a new low of 64.3%.

BLS December Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) December 2010 Employment Report.

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.4 percent in December, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 103,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality and in health care but was little changed in other major industries.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Bear in mind, were it not for millions of people allegedly dropping out of the labor force over the last year, the unemployment rate would be over 11% right now.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted

Note the effect of temporary census hiring earlier this year. For all the hype about the improving economy, there has only been one good jobs report all year, in October.

Establishment Data



click on chart for sharper image

Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours



The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 34.3 hours in December. The manufacturing workweek for all employees declined by 0.1 hour to 40.2 hours, while factory overtime remained at 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours.

In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $22.78. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $19.21.
BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

For those unfamiliar with the birth/death model, monthly jobs adjustments are made by the BLS based on economic assumptions about the birth and death of businesses (not individuals).

Birth Death Model Revisions 2009



click on chart for sharper image

Birth Death Model Revisions 2010



click on chart for sharper image

Birth-death adjustments remain in the solar system for an unprecedented four consecutive months. November was negative. I cannot recall the last negative number in any month but January or July.

Birth/Death Model Methodology

The big news in the BLS Birth/Death Model is the BLS is going to move to quarterly rather than annual adjustments.

Effective with the release of January 2011 data on February 4, 2011, the establishment survey will begin estimating net business birth/death adjustment factors on a quarterly basis, replacing the current practice of estimating the factors annually. This will allow the establishment survey to incorporate information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages into the birth/death adjustment factors as soon as it becomes available and thereby improve the factors.

For more details please see Introduction of Quarterly Birth/Death Model Updates in the Establishment Survey

In recent years Birth/Death methodology has been so screwed up and there have been so many revisions that it has been painful to watch.

It is possible that the BLS model is now back in sync with the real world. Moreover, quarterly rather than annual adjustments can only help the process.

Please note that one cannot subtract or add birth death revisions to the reported totals and get a meaningful answer. One set of numbers is seasonally adjusted the other is not. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total. The Birth Death numbers influence the overall totals but the math is not as simple as it appears and the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Household Data



In the last year the civilian population rose by 1,965,000. Yet the labor force rose by a mere 518,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,447,000. In December alone, a whopping 260,000 people dropped out of the workforce. The one bright spot in the entire report: employment rose by 297,000.

Households Stats
  • The number of unemployed persons decreased by 556,000 to 14.5 million in December, and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent.
  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 6.4 million and accounted for 44.3 percent of the unemployed.
  • The civilian labor force participation rate edged down in December to 64.3 percent, and the employment-population ratio was essentially unchanged at 58.3 percent.
  • The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in December at 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
  • About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, little different than a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
In January 2010 the number of people working part time for economic reason was 8.3 million. 12 months later the total has gone up by 631,000.

Table A-8 Part Time Status



click on chart for sharper image

There are now 8,931,000 workers whose hours may rise before those companies start hiring more workers.

Table A-15

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.



click on chart for sharper image

Grim Statistics

The official unemployment rate is 9.4%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

While the "official" unemployment rate is an unacceptable 9.4%, U-6 is much higher at 16.7%. Moreover, both the official rate and U-6 would be much higher were it not for huge numbers of people dropping out of the workforce.

Things are much worse than the reported numbers would have you believe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Italy The Invisible Elephant

Posted: 07 Jan 2011 04:54 AM PST

In regards to the escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe, most eyes have been focused on Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal, the so-called PIGS.

Dr. Evil, a former government bond trader for a very prominent bank pinged me regarding my post PIGS Exposure Table, Explaining the Panic by Numbers. Her message was to pay more attention to the second "I" in PIIGS, namely Italy, the "invisible elephant".
Dr. Evil writes ...

Hello Mish

I just saw your table on the PIGS and I see the biggest one of all missing, ITALY. I traded Euro Government bonds for 11 years and know this market inside out. Spain is a big one should it go but Italy has a cool 2 Trillion EUR in debt and has much worse debt statistics than Spain.

Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio is 118% (2009). Greece got in trouble at 116%. Italy's deficit is smaller and has a high savings ratio. However, nobody focuses on that as Spain is in the limelight with a debt-to-GDP ratio under 60%. Should austerity measures result in a nominal GDP contraction in Italy, its debt stats will worsen very rapidly.

Italy is the elephant in the room not Spain.

Regards
Dr. Evil
Let's take a closer look at sovereign bonds spreads in Europe, comparing German 10-year government bonds to Italian 10-year government bonds.

German 10-Year Government Bonds



Italian 10-Year Government Bonds



Since mid-October, German 10-Year Government bond yields are up .64%. In the same timeframe, Italian 10-Year Government bond yields are up 1.04%.

The flight-to-safety divergence increased starting around December 16, 2010. Since then, German bonds yields are off .16% while Italian bond yields rose .14%.

Government Bond Spreads as of January 7, 2011

On January 7, 2011 the German-Italian spread government bond spread is 1.88% and rising. Table is courtesy of the Financial Times.



Web of Debt

Here is an interesting chart courtesy of the New York Times regarding Europe's Web of Debt that helps explain the picture.



click on chart for sharper image

The graphic is from May, 2010 so it's a bit dated. However, it does explain the interrelationships quite nicely.

Note that Italy owes France a whopping $511 billion, 20% of the French GDP. Moreover, nearly 1/3 of Portugal's debt is held by Spain. Meanwhile Spain owes huge amounts to Germany, France, and the UK.

Do you think all of that will be repaid? I don't.

Critical Court Ruling Coming Up

In Feb 2011 the German court gives its verdict on the constitutionality of the bail-out. Fifty academics and politicians sued the government over it. February is crunch time. For more details please see EU Commission Plans Haircuts on Bank Debt; Greek Yields Hit New Record; China Buys Spanish Debt; German Courts to Decide Bailout Constitutionality.

If the German courts uphold the constitutionality of these various bailouts, the crisis is merely pushed a bit further down the road.

New Irish Government Likely To Demand Haircuts

In March a new Irish government will take over and it is highly likely that government questions the hundreds of billions Ireland owes German, French, and UK banks.

I believe Ireland should tell the ECB and IMF to go to hell and default. For my rationale, please see To Ireland With Love. Here is the "Trojan Horse" image I used with the article.



Italian Snowball and Off-Balance Sheet Derivatives

In a subsequent email, Dr. Evil elaborated on Italy's off-balance sheet debt.
Hello Mish,

If Italy were to go into a nominal GDP recession on account of its austerity programs, its debt-to-GDP ratio would likely be 130% by 2012. It's difficult to see how the market would ignore that.

Also check out Italy's debt compared to Germany. Here is the official EU Gross Government Debt Figures by country. Note that as of 2009, Italy's Debt is 1.763 Trillion EUR, about the same as Germany. Obviously the German economy is far bigger.

Moreover, I assure you that Italy has a lot of off-balance sheet debt. Some European countries took some very creative measures to reduce interest payments on debt. Italy was one of those countries.

I have seen Italy do HUGE (10+ billion USD) derivative transactions. Those transactions were all off-balance sheet but the cash flows behind the transactions were very real.

Italy was the number 1 customer for big investment banks in London for years. You won't find anything about that in the press.

In 2011, Italy will need to rollover a pile of debt. It will be interesting to see how that goes. I believe that if the 10-year yield hits 6%, an irreversible snowball effect similar to what Greece and Ireland went through is likely.

That's when gold hits $2000

Dr. Evil
2011 Italian Debt Issuance

Inquiring minds are reading Italian Public Securities By Maturity to see how much debt Italy will need to rollover in 2011.

A quick look at page 3 totals approximately 281 billion in euro debt rollovers. Assume a 5% budget deficit on a GDP of roughly 1.5 trillion euros and you end up with 281 + 75 billion or roughly 356 billion euro total debt issuance.

Will the market accommodate that issuance at a good interest rate? If not, the "Invisible Elephant In The Room" will quickly make its presence known in a rather rude manner.

Addendum:

Flashback July 23,2006: Citigroup Haunted by Dr. Evil, Fails to Gain Governments' Trust
Almost two years after Citigroup Inc. riled the dozen countries in Europe's government bond market with secret trades code-named Dr. Evil, the debacle is hurting shareholders of the world's largest financial institution.

Citigroup arranged just 2.3 percent of the 155 billion euro ($196 billion) in debt sold by the governments since it unleashed Dr. Evil on Aug. 2, 2004. That's little more than a fifth of its market-leading 10.1 percent share in 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show. And while the $26 million fine Citigroup paid was the equivalent of a rounding error on annual earnings, the New York-based bank has lost the chance to win lucrative fees for handling sales of state assets, such as France's $7 billion stake in Groupe Caisse d'Epargne; Citigroup is now 14th among advisers on European privatizations, down from third.

German financial market regulator Bafin referred the case in January 2005 to a public prosecutor, who decided against pursuing the case "for legal reasons," said Anja Neukoetter, a Bafin spokeswoman in Bonn. France's Autorite des Marches Financieres passed its evidence to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said Sabine Baudin, a Paris-based spokeswoman at the AMF.

Thomas Maheras, 43, Citigroup's head of global capital markets, acknowledged in a memo to employees that the bank's conduct wasn't above reproach.

"We regret having executed this transaction," Maheras said in the memo, which was distributed to news organizations in September 2004. "We failed to fully consider its impact on our clients, other market participants and our regulators."
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List