marți, 14 octombrie 2014

Announcing the 2014 Local Search Ranking Factors Results

Announcing the 2014 Local Search Ranking Factors Results


Announcing the 2014 Local Search Ranking Factors Results

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 05:00 AM PDT

Posted by David-Mihm

Many of you have been tweeting, emailing, asking in conference Q&As, or just generally awaiting this year's Local Search Ranking Factors survey results. Here they are!

Hard to believe, but this is the seventh year I've conducted this survey—local search has come a long way since the early days of the 10-pack way back in 2008! As always, a massive thanks to all of the expert panelists who in many cases gave up a weekend or a date night in order to fill out the survey.

New this year

As the complexity of the local search results has increased, I've tried to keep the survey as manageable as possible for the participants, and the presentation of results as actionable as possible for the community. So to that end, I've made a couple of tweaks this year.

Combination of desktop and mobile results

Very few participants last year perceived any noticeable difference between ranking criteria on desktop and mobile devices, so this year I simply asked that they rate localized organic results, and pack/carousel results, across both result types.

Results limited to top 50 factors in each category

Again, the goal here was to simplify some of the complexity and help readers focus on the factors that really matter. Let me know in the comments if you think this decision detracts significantly from the results, and I'll revisit it in 2015.

Factors influenced by Pigeon

If you were at Matt McGee's Pigeon session at SMX East a couple of weeks ago, you got an early look at these results in my presentation. The big winners were domain authority and proximity to searcher, while the big losers were proximity to centroid and having an address in the city of search. (For those who weren't at my presentation, the latter assessment may have to do with larger radii of relevant results for geomodified phrases).

My own takeaways

Overall, the algorithmic model that Mike Blumenthal developed (with help from some of the same contributors to this survey) way back in 2008 continues to stand up. Nonetheless, there were a few clear shifts this year that I'll highlight below:

  • Behavioral signals—especially clickthrough rate from search results—seem to be increasing in importance. Darren Shaw in particular noted Rand's IMEC Labs research, saying "I think factors like click through rate, driving directions, and "pogo sticking" are valuable quality signals that Google has cranked up the dial on."
  • Domain authority seems to be on its way up—particularly since the Pigeon rollout here in the U.S. Indeed, even in clear instances of post-Pigeon spam, the poor results seem to relate to Google's inability to reliably separate "brands" from "spam" in Local. I expect Google to get better at this, and the importance of brand signals to remain high.
  • Initially, I was surprised to see authority and consistency of citations rated so highly for localized organic results. But then I thought to myself, "if Google is increasingly looking for brand signals, then why shouldn't citations help in the organic algorithm as well?" And while the quantity of structured citations still rated highly for pack and carousel results, consistent citations from quality sources continue to carry the day across both major result types.
  • Proximity to searcher saw one of the biggest moves in this year's survey. Google is getting better at detecting location at a more granular level—even on the desktop. The user is the new Centroid.
  • For markets where Pigeon has not rolled out yet (i.e. everywhere besides the U.S.), I'd encourage business owners and marketers to start taking as many screenshots of their primary keywords as possible. With the benefit of knowing that Pigeon will eventually roll out in your countries, the ability to compare before-and-after results for the same keywords will yield great insight for you in discerning the direction of the algorithm.

As with every year, though, it's the comments from the experts and community (that's you, below!) that I find most interesting to read.  So I think at this point I'll sign off, crack open a GABF Gold-Medal-Winning Breakside IPA from Portland, and watch them roll in!

2014 Local Search Ranking Factors


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Seth's Blog : Avoiding magical thinking

 

Avoiding magical thinking

There's a relationship that's easy to imagine but actually incorrect: We often come to the conclusion that in order to make something magical, we'll need magical events to occur to get there.

Building a startup is hard. Publishing a great book successfully is quite difficult. Launching a non-profit that matters is a Herculean task. I hope you will do all three, and more, often.

But while your intent is pure and your goal is to create magic, the most common mistake is to believe that the marketplace will agree with your good intent and support you. More specifically, that media intermediaries will clearly, loudly and accurately tell your story, that this story will be heard by an eager and interested public and that the public will take action (three strikes).

Or, more tempting, that ten people will tell ten people to the eighth power, leading to truly exponential growth (some day). Because right now, you've told ten people and they have told no one.

Or, possibly, that you will call on businesses and offer them a solution so powerful that they will pay you at that very first meeting, generating enough cash flow that you will be able to immediately hire more (and better) salespeople to grow your organization exponentially.

All great organizations make change. Change is hard. Change takes time. In markets that matter (meaning not gossip, not snark, not spectator sports), people rarely tell dozens of other people about what they've discovered. And action is taken, sometimes, but not as much as you deserve.

No, you'll need to work hard to create something magical, and a big part of that hard work is relentlessly eliminating all magical thinking from your projections and your expectations of how the market will react.

Only count on things that have happened before, a funnel you can buy and time you can afford to invest. Anything more than that is a nice bonus.

[HT, worth reading: Aaron]

       

 

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luni, 13 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


UKIP Support Hits Record High 25% of Voters; Let's Be Clear: Cameron Clearly a Fake Conservative Liar

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 10:53 PM PDT

Support for UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) hit a record high 25% following recent elections that gave UKIP its first ever seat in the British parliament.

Still that's one seat out of 650. Is UKIP anything Cameron's Tory party or Labour need fear?

In case you don't already know, the answer can be found in Poll: Support for UKIP Hits Record High.
Support for the anti-EU UK Independence Party hit a record high of 25%, an opinion poll showed yesterday (12 October), days after it won its first elected seat in Britain's parliament at the expense of Prime Minister David Cameron's party.

The survey suggested that UKIP, which favours a British exit from the European Union and tighter immigration controls, could pick up more seats than previously thought in a national election next year.

UKIP's rise threatens Cameron's re-election drive by splitting the right-wing vote, increases the likelihood of another coalition government, and poses a challenge to the left-leaning opposition Labour party in northern England too.

UKIP won its first elected seat in parliament by a landslide in a by-election on Thursday, after a parliamentarian from Cameron's centre-right Conservatives defected and took almost 60 percent of the vote.

Before Sunday, most polling experts had forecast it could win only a handful of the 650 seats in parliament in 2015.

But based on the result of the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, the party could win more than 100 seats in 2015, the newspaper quoted a pollster as saying.

Support for the Conservatives and Labour was tied at 31%, according to the poll, which was based on interviews with 1,003 people nationwide.

Labour leader Ed Miliband, whose party came within a whisker of losing a seat in northern England to UKIP on Friday, wrote in The Observer newspaper that he recognised that UKIP was "tapping into a seam of discontent and despair that Labour cannot - and will not - ignore."

Miliband signalled his party would not respond with a knee-jerk policy change, but would stick to its re-election plan to promise a higher minimum wage and more money for the country's health service.
Interesting Labour Response

Miliband responds to voter sentiment shifting to the right, with an even stronger shift to the left.  He seeks to splinter UKIP from the Cameron's Tory party, hoping to win the next election.

Indeed, Cameron now warns British citizens that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour. 

Who's Bluffing Whom?

The Daily Mail reports 'Go to bed with Farage, wake up with Miliband,' Cameron jokes in warning that a vote for UKIP will hand power to Labour.
Mr Cameron insisted that a vote for UKIP would only make a Labour government more likely.

He told the Conservative conference: "Let's be clear. This is a straight fight. It doesn't matter whether Parliament is hung, drawn or quartered, there is only one real choice. The Conservatives or Labour. Me in Downing Street, or Ed Miliband in Downing Street. If you vote UKIP – that's really a vote for Labour."
Cameron Clearly a Liar

"Here's a thought: On 7th May you could go to bed with Nigel Farage, and wake up with Ed Miliband. I don't know about you but not one bit of that works for me," said Cameron.

Here's the equally valid alternative thought: If you vote for Cameron, you will wind up in bed with Ed Miliband and Labour.

So by all means, "let's be clear". Cameron is clearly a liar.

Who Do You Trust?

Cameron asks, "When it comes to Britain's future, who do you trust? Labour – the party of something-for-nothing, and human wrongs under the banner of human rights, or the Conservatives – who believe in something for something, and reward for hard work?"

That is not only a false choice, but a blatantly obvious one at that. Is there not a third party with 25% popular support?

Cameron could easily win reelection if he would put the EU referendum on the ballot right now. But he won't.

Why?

Because Cameron is a fake conservative, clueless about the real meaning of the word.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

End of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - Not

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 11:38 AM PDT

Is the end of US dollar hegemony at hand?

Inquiring minds may be asking that question given China's Zhou Says Some Countries Using Yuan in Reserves.
Some countries are already using the Chinese yuan in their foreign-currency reserves without announcing it publicly, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.

While China's yuan has begun to be used as a reserve currency for several years, some countries "may not be willing to say so," Zhou told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington.

China has stepped up efforts to promote the yuan's use overseas since the global financial crisis, as expansion in the world's second-largest economy provides more clout while Europe has yet to fully recover. The European Central Bank will discuss next week whether to begin laying the groundwork to add the Chinese yuan to its foreign-currency reserves, Bloomberg reported yesterday.
Over the course of the past decade there has been countless articles on the end of US dollar supremacy, the crash of the dollar, and the rise of the Yuan and Ruble.

Recent Examples


Prime Petrodollar Nonsense

The most ludicrous of the above articles is by Clive Maund on Kitco. It's a perfect example of misguided, overblown, petrodollar hype.

The central thesis of these articles is

  1. It takes dollars to buy oil
  2. Oil is starting to trade in yuan and rubles
  3. Oil will start trading in other currencies
  4. Collapse of the dollar is at hand
  5. Yuan will soon supplant the Dollar as world's reserve currency

The starting thesis that it takes dollars to buy oil is wrong.

As I have pointed out for at least a decade, it does not take dollars to buy oil any more than it takes dollars to buy gold.

Gold is priced in dollars. But you can walk into any coin store in the UK and buy gold with British Pounds; You can walk into any coin store in China and buy gold in Renminbi (yuan); And you can walk into any coin store in France and buy gold with euros.

Oil is priced in dollars. So what? Currencies are fungible. Even if one did need dollars to buy oil (they don't), the pound, Swiss francs, euros, and every other major currency on the planet can instantaneously be exchanged for any other currency at will.

That holds true at both the front and back end. Thus, there is no need for Saudi Arabia (or any other oil exporter) to demand euros, or francs, or whatever, when the exporters can instantaneously convert to whatever freely traded currency they want.

Regardless of the pricing unit, one does not need to stockpile dollars to buy oil. If oil was priced in euros across the board right now, it would not make a damn bit of difference.

Questions for Yuan Lovers

Please note that in spite of all the yuan reserve currency hype, one currency that is not freely convertible is the Yuan.

When will China have the biggest, most open bond market in the world? Next year? A decade? three decades?

I ask these questions because until China has the biggest, most open bond market, a freely floating currency, and it eliminates currency controls, there is no chance the Yuan will supplant the dollar.

And what about political freedoms and global trust? Will a centrally planned undemocratic economy like China ever get that trust?

Petrodollar Silliness Way Back

I talked about the silliness of the petrodollar thesis as early as 2005. (See Oil Priced in Euros. Would it matter?)

In 2009, we saw Ridiculous Hype Over Secret Oil Meetings.

For discussion of another truly ridiculous idea, please consider Countdown To Dollar Implosion Madness in which the dollar was supposed to collapse in favor of a "Super Sovereign Currency" demanded by China. 

Such stories have continued at an endless pace for over a decade.

I bring this all up because of an interesting email from Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets.

Pettis on Chinese Reform, Currency, and Interest Rate Deregulation

In his email, Pettis writes about China's reform, China's banking solvency, currency controls, and other topics related to possibility the yuan will become the next reserve currency.

From Michael Pettis (emphasis mine)... 
Recent rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan will retire as governor of the PBoC should not be interpreted as an indication that Beijing has changed its mind about the urgency of reform. Given Zhou's age, it was unlikely that he would remain in his seat for very long, and in fact if these rumors are true, they may simply reflect recognition by Beijing that as the reforms are implemented, conditions are likely to become tougher. Replacing Zhou at a later date would then be more damaging then replacing him now.

Contrary to some of the speculation, if Zhou retires soon I don't think it would imply that there has been a change in policy or policy objectives. Zhou has always been considered as one of the most determined and articulate of the reformers, warning about the perils of excess credit expansion as long ago as 2006-07.

The kinds of reforms that Zhou is believed consistently to have championed are pretty much the liberalizing reforms that will open the Chinese economy up to a far more efficient and productive use of domestic resources.

Currency and Interest Rate Deregulation

Zhou is also considered to be one of the main supporters of systematic efforts to speed up the internationalization of the RMB, the political implications of which are a little murkier. A relaxation of currency controls of course makes it easier for capital to flow into and out of the country, which benefits wealthy individuals eager either to stash money abroad or to bring in outside money quickly to take advantage of domestic profit opportunities, but I am not sure how aware people outside of monetary circles are that removing capital controls is an extremely risky strategy.

China has a rigid, unsophisticated, and largely insolvent financial system with vague delineations between what is and what isn't implicitly guaranteed by local governments or by Beijing. Managers have little experience of risk management. An elimination of capital controls and a significant increase in the use of the RMB in international trade and capital flows (currently it is a little more actively traded than the Mexican peso, and its use over the past two years has grown slightly faster) could subject the banking system, especially given the uncertainty that surrounds the Chinese economy, to shifts in capital flows.

I don't think China's banking system can handle the risk, especially of large inflows followed by sudden massive outflows. These could easily destabilize the Chinese economy at a time when it is most vulnerable. I have heard some analysts, both Chinese and foreign, argue that this kind of risk can be managed by the simple expedient of restoring capital controls as soon as there is a problem, as Malaysia did in response to the 1997 crisis, but it isn't quite as easy as all that. Regulators are always eager to try to calm markets down whenever a rise in uncertainty threatens to become destabilizing, and to impose capital controls during a period of uncertainty is almost guaranteed to increase the uncertainty substantially. At any rate, during the nearly thirteen years I have lived in China, the elimination of capital controls was always something to be expected within the next five years, and I personally never believed then, nor do I believe now, that we were or are likely to see significant relaxation of capital controls anytime in the foreseeable future.

There have been rumors that Governor Zhou understands this risk, but had nonetheless pressed forward on the issue of currency deregulation largely because, frustrated by the slow pace of financial sector liberalization, he saw this as a way of exerting pressure on the pace of domestic reform. In that case if he were indeed to retire very soon, the timetable for RMB internationalization, such as it is, would probably be pushed back.

Because he had also personally committed very strongly to interest rate liberalization within two years, which, unlike currency deregulation, I believe is an important goal and a plausible timetable, there is a chance that if he does indeed retire soon, the next governor might not feel the same commitment to maintain the schedule. In that case over the next two years, during which time I expect nominal GDP growth to drop by at least 2-3%, pressure by powerful vested interests for whom access to cheap capital was their primary economic advantage might cause the PBoC postpone interest rate deregulation and perhaps even to lower interest rates.

If Zhou leaves, the goal of weaning SOEs and local governments off their addiction to credit would remain, but the cries of pain would be heard a little more sympathetically. Policy objectives, in other words, are unlikely to be changed if Governor Zhou were to retire, but the timing of the reforms might be extended, especially of those reforms to which Zhou had a personal commitment. Zhou had a prestige both domestically and internationally that will be hard to match, and he probably would have found it easier than his replacement to press his views on the president and the premier.

China is slowly moving in the right direction and inevitably the long delay it allowed before rebalancing the economy means that the process will be very difficult and bumpy. There will be steps forward followed by steps backward, as Beijing balances one group against another, but I don't think we should read too much into events yet. It will take at least another six months to one year before we can say for sure whether or not Beijing has consolidated power enough to rebalance the economy successfully. Until then, we need to be patient. Each step backwards does not mean the end of the reform process.
Hype vs. Reality

For all the hype, the Yuan trades as actively as the Mexican Peso. Yes, this will change, s.l.o.w.l.y.

Right now, the US Has ...

  • The largest, freest capital market in the world. 
  • The largest bond market in the world. 
  • A freely floating currency.
  • Political freedom.
  • Strong property laws.
  • Democratic form of government.

Trade Math

By the way, it's important to note that foreign governments accumulate US dollars as a function of math.

For example, the US runs a trade deficit with China. China must accumulate US dollars (or US dollar assets such as US treasuries). Those who argue otherwise, do not understand the trade mechanics.

Sure, there will be more trading in currencies other than the dollar over time. But the idea that the yuan will soon rein supreme is complete silliness.

All Things End

All things come to an end, including US dollar supremacy. Yet, don't expect a miraculous rise of the yuan or anything related to the seriously misguided petrodollar and petroyuan theories.

As Pettis points out "China has a rigid, unsophisticated, and largely insolvent financial system with vague delineations between what is and what isn't implicitly guaranteed by local governments or by Beijing."

Currency Crisis Awaits

China is indeed "largely insolvent" to phrase things politely. But, it's not just China. The entire global financial system is insolvent.

A global currency crisis can start anywhere, at any time. Three likely places to look are the euro, the yen, and the yuan.

In baseball parlance, Euroland is the batter's box and Japan is on deck.

If a global currency crisis does start soon, then gold, the much maligned US dollar, and US treasuries will likely be the beneficiaries, not the illiquid yuan.

Precisely what the next currency system will look like is unknown. But if the system changes in a major way, neither the yuan nor the US dollar will be at the heart of it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Luke Skywalker And Princess Leia Reunite

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 04:25 PM PDT

They might look a little bit older but these faces are still iconic.



Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill 
 

Stunning Cruise Ship In Venice

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 12:34 PM PDT

Say hello to the MSC Magnifica 5 its a length of 194 meters, width 32 meters and 17 floors in height. This thing might as well be its own city.

















This Family Has A Lion As A House Pet

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 12:22 PM PDT

This series of intimate photographs from the 1970s of Neil the lion carries a chilling backstory that should remind us all that, no matter how much we might love them or feel close to them, we will never truly understand the mind of a wild animal.

After a trip to Africa, actress Tippi Hedren, her husband Noel Marshall, and their actress daughter Melanie Griffith, wanted to make a movie about lions. At the advice of Ron Oxley, an animal trainer who said that "to get to know about lions, you've got to live with them for a while," they had Neil the lion live with them. Their life was documented by LIFE photographer Michael Rougier.

Their life with Neil seems to have been nice, but their movie, Roar, didn't go quite so well. Melanie required 50 stitches after being attacked by a lioness that was part of the film, and cinematographer Jan de Bont had to have his scalp sewn back on. 70 people wound up being injured by the movie's cast of 150 large predatory cats. The movie cost more than 17.5 million and made 2 million.

















Via mashable

Some Of The World's Best Bachelor Pads

Posted: 13 Oct 2014 10:46 AM PDT

If you're having a tough time getting ladies back to your bachelor pad, maybe you should use some of these pictures as inspiration.