sâmbătă, 25 iulie 2015

Seth's Blog : In search of your calling

In search of your calling

I don't think we have a calling.

I do think it's possible to have a caring.

A calling implies that there's just one thing for you, just one thing you're supposed to do. 

What we most need in our lives, though, is something worth doing, worth it because we care.

There are plenty of forces pushing us to not care. Bosses, systems, bureaucracies and the fear of mattering.

None of them are worth sacrificing something as important as caring.

       

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vineri, 24 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Hedge Funds Net-Short Gold First Time in History; Contrarian Views

Posted: 24 Jul 2015 01:52 PM PDT

After being net long all the way from $1900 to $1100, Bloomberg reports Hedge Funds Are Holding First-Ever Gold Net-Short Position.
Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold prices since the U.S. government started collecting the data in 2006.

The funds and other speculators shifted to a net-short position of 11,345 contracts in New York futures and options in the week ended July 21, according to figures from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Gold futures on Friday fell to the lowest since 2010 on the Comex, and the short wagers show investors expect the rout to deepen.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Jeffrey Currie says the worst is yet to come for gold, and that prices could fall below $1,000 an ounce for the first time since 2009. "The risks are clearly skewed to the downside," Currie, the bank's New York-based head of commodities research, said in a phone interview Tuesday.

Currie isn't alone in predicting more declines. ABN Amro Bank NV's Georgette Boele and Robin Bhar of Societe Generale AG say bullion will approach $1,000 by December.
Contrarian Views

From a contrarian point of view, this sure seems like good news to me.

Also, my friend Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this thought: "Yesterday, the entire gold futures curve out to December traded in backwardation to cash. This is never supposed to happen in gold, and is a sign that physical demand is far stronger than futures prices would indicate."

Strong negative sentiment is a prerequisite for a strong rally. It would be far worse if everyone was bullish during this decline.

However, and as I have noted before, sentiment is not a timing issue. And to answer reader questions in advance, I am still holding. If I were to do anything here it would be to add. I still like the long-term prospects.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

New Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline 6.8%, April and May Revised Lower; Writers Still Upbeat

Posted: 24 Jul 2015 09:18 AM PDT

New home sales unexpectedly plunged 6.8% to 482,000 annualized units, far below any Bloomberg Consensus Estimate.
Volatility is common for new home sales and there's plenty of it the June report where the headline plunged 6.8 percent to a far lower-than-expected annual rate of 482,000 and where revisions erased 40,000 from the prior two months.

But there is some good news in the report and that's a surge in supply of new homes on the market, up 3.4 percent in the month to 215,000. Greater supply points to greater sales ahead. On a sales basis, supply is at 5.4 months vs 4.8 and 4.7 in June and May.

Prices look soft in the report, at a median $281,800 which is up 0.5 percent in the month but down 1.8 percent year-on-year. The latter reading points to deep discounting compared to the year-on-year sales gain of 18.1 percent.

Regional data show big drops in the West and the Midwest in the month and a smaller drop in the South. But the Northeast is showing life with a second straight solid gain. Year-on-year, the South and Northeast lead with respective sales gains of 23.7 and 23.1 percent with the West and Midwest lagging at 10.9 and 5.7 percent.
Key Numbers

  • The Bloomberg consensus range was 535,000 to 570,000 annualized.
  • The consensus estimate was 550,000 (over-optimistic by 68,000). 
  • Actual new home sales were 482,000.  
  • May was revised from 546,000 to 517,000 (downward revision of 29,000).
  • April was revised lower by 11,000.

Seven Month Low

Reuters reports New home Sales at Seven-Month Low.
New U.S. single-family home sales fell in June to their lowest level in seven months and May's sales were revised sharply lower, in what appeared to be a minor setback for the housing market recovery.

New home sales dropped 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 units, the lowest level since last November, the Commerce Department said. May's sales pace was revised down to 517,000 units from the previously reported 546,000 units.

"You never want to see the data regress, but we remain optimistic that we're still on a long-term upward trajectory," said Tom Wind, vice president of home lending at EverBank in Jacksonville, Florida.

Despite two straight months of declines in new home sales, the overall housing market recovery remains intact.
Writers Upbeat

Reuters called this a "minor setback", further stating the "overall housing market recovery remains intact."

Is the recovery intact? How could the writer possibly know?

Bloomberg says "Greater supply points to greater sales ahead."

Is that what greater supply points to, or does it point to builder over-optimism coupled with another round of homes built on spec in hope that buyers show up later?

Which is it? How could the Bloomberg writer possibly know?

While pondering those questions, let's put a little perspective on new home sales and new homes for sale.

New One-Family Homes Sold



New One Family Homes for Sale



That's "the good news" in perspective.

Problems With the Good News Scenario

The key problem with these upbeat forecasts is that homes are not affordable for the one set of buyers that matter most: millennials.

Millennial family formation is low because of student debt overhang, low wages, high prices, and changing attitudes.

In regards to changing attitudes, millennials have seen what debt has done to their parents and do not want to follow the same path. Millions have moved back home with their parents because that's all they can afford.

And instead of chasing the suburban dream like their parents, millions more prefer to live in cities close to where they work.

To top it off, mortgage rates have been rising. Fed rate hikes may push rates even higher. And the higher rates go, the less house one can afford.

Yet, allegedly the housing recovery is "intact".

Is it? How can anyone possibly know?

Here's one thing we do know: This report will shave a bit off 2nd quarter GDP estimates. It will also give the Fed another reason to not hike in September.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


How much is your old phone worth? [Infographic]

Posted: 24 Jul 2015 02:14 PM PDT

As a country with the highest cellphone penetration per square meter in Africa, almost all of us have unused cell phones lying around. But how much can you sell it for? Gumtree has created an unique phone price checker that collates all the data from the site to demonstrate how much second hand cellphones are being sold for, per brand, device and model. This allows you to not only sell your old phone for what it's worth, but also to determine what phones you could afford to buy.

"It's a great way to recoup some money from your old phone to put towards a brand new one," says Claire Cobbledick, Head of Marketing for Gumtree South Africa. "Cellphone technology changes rapidly, which is why buying and selling is a great way to always have the latest gadget in your pocket without breaking the bank." 

A recent study by Havas Worldwide has shown that 43% of 16-35 year olds consider the resale value before they make a purchase, which is why taking the resale value of a cell phone into account before purchase pays dividends. "We do it for other high-value items like cars – why not do it for cellphones?" says Cobbledick.

The phone price checker is the latest offering in a series of three by the classifieds site, which also boasts a car price checker and a property checker. "These tools are ultimately aimed at helping our customers decide what to purchase and how to determine resale value," says Cobbledick.

Cobbledick believes that the latent data on the classifieds site can be "immensely valuable", particularly to retailers and automotive dealerships. "There is no other portal that answers the question, "What happens to my product after it's been sold?" in a better fashion. It's telling to see, for instance, how quickly certain phones are being sold after purchase or how much value consumers place on one brand as opposed to another."

Cobbledick says that electronics remain one of the most popular categories on the site. "There are at least 17,000 cell phones being sold on the site every month, and they sell very quickly." Phones sold can range from feature phones to the latest Samsung Galaxy or iPhone. "Smart phones are in high demand but very few people can afford to buy them new, particular pay-as-you-go customers. Gumtree offers an affordable access for aspiring techies."

All three price checkers can be viewed here.



Photos That Captured Fascinating Moments And People Throughout History

Posted: 24 Jul 2015 02:01 PM PDT

Photos allow us to look into the past and sometimes the past is absolutely fascinating.

Bruce Lee teaching his son Brandon how to kick (ca. 1971)


A police officer in the 1980's



Bear enjoying some honey in a cafe, 1950



Black man drinking at white only fountain, ca 1964


A photo of Anne Frank and her friends who are celebrating Anne's 10th birthday (c. 1939)



German soldier trying to dig himself out after being buried after a bombardment, Normandy, 1944



Miss NASA 1968



Horse mounted Soviet "cavalry" during Afghanistan conflict, 1980's



1950s cowgirl



The original Charlie's Angels. Late 70s



Sylvester Stallone in 1982



San Francisco girl, 1989



Arnold showing off his muscles to old ladies, 1967 in Munich



Woman, wearing a barrel, advertising for clothing drive, walks down the middle of Times Square, New York, 1944



1939 condom testers



Showgirls atop the Golden Horseshoe Saloon, Disneyland, July 17, 1955



American pressure suit, designed by Republic Aviation, for extended operations on the moon's surface (1966)



Burlesque dancer Miss Zorita walking her snake, 1940s



Pinpoint vs. Floodlight Content and Keyword Research Strategies - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Pinpoint vs. Floodlight Content and Keyword Research Strategies - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

When we're doing keyword research and targeting, we have a choice to make: Are we targeting broader keywords with multiple potential searcher intents, or are we targeting very narrow keywords where it's pretty clear what the searchers were looking for? Those different approaches, it turns out, apply to content creation and site architecture, as well. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand illustrates that connection.

Pinpoint vs Floodlight Content and Keyword Research Strategy Whiteboard

Pinpoint vs Floodlight Content and Keyword Research Strategy Whiteboard

For reference, here are stills of this week's whiteboards. Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat about pinpoint versus floodlight tactics for content targeting, content strategy, and keyword research, keyword targeting strategy. This is also called the shotgun versus sniper approach, but I'm not a big gun fan. So I'm going to stick with my floodlight versus pinpoint, plus, you know, for the opening shot we don't have a whole lot of weaponry here at Moz, but we do have lighting.

So let's talk through this at first. You're going through and doing some keyword research. You're trying to figure out which terms and phrases to target. You might look down a list like this.

Well, maybe, I'm using an example here around antique science equipment. So you see these various terms and phrases. You've got your volume numbers. You probably have lots of other columns. Hopefully, you've watched the Whiteboard Friday on how to do keyword research like it's 2015 and not 2010.

So you know you have all these other columns to choose from, but I'm simplifying here for the purpose of this experiment. So you might choose some of these different terms. Now, they're going to have different kinds of tactics and a different strategic approach, depending on the breadth and depth of the topic that you're targeting. That's going to determine what types of content you want to create and where you place it in your information architecture. So I'll show you what I mean.

The floodlight approach

For antique science equipment, this is a relatively broad phrase. I'm going to do my floodlight analysis on this, and floodlight analysis is basically saying like, "Okay, are there multiple potential searcher intents?" Yeah, absolutely. That's a fairly broad phase. People could be looking to transact around it. They might be looking for research information, historical information, different types of scientific equipment that they're looking for.

Are there four or more approximately unique keyword terms and phrases to target? Well, absolutely, in fact, there's probably more than that. So antique science equipment, antique scientific equipment, 18th century scientific equipment, all these different terms and phrases that you might explore there.

Is this a broad content topic with many potential subtopics? Again, yes is the answer to this. Are we talking about generally larger search volume? Again, yes, this is going to have a much larger search volume than some of the narrower terms and phrases. That's not always the case, but it is here.

The pinpoint approach

For pinpoint analysis, we kind of go the opposite direction. So we might look at a term like antique test tubes, which is a very specific kind of search, and that has a clear single searcher intent or maybe two. Someone might be looking for actually purchasing one of those, or they might be looking to research them and see what kinds there are. Not a ton of additional intents behind that. One to three unique keywords, yeah, probably. It's pretty specific. Antique test tubes, maybe 19th century test tubes, maybe old science test tubes, but you're talking about a limited set of keywords that you're targeting. It's a narrow content topic, typically smaller search volume.

Now, these are going to feed into your IA, your information architecture, and your site structure in this way. So floodlight content generally sits higher up. It's the category or the subcategory, those broad topic terms and phrases. Those are going to turn into those broad topic category pages. Then you might have multiple, narrower subtopics. So we could go into lab equipment versus astronomical equipment versus chemistry equipment, and then we'd get into those individual pinpoints from the pinpoint analysis.

How do I decide which approach is best for my keywords?

Why are we doing this? Well, generally speaking, if you can take your terms and phrases and categorize them like this and then target them differently, you're going to provide a better, more logical user experience. Someone who searches for antique scientific equipment, they're going to really expect to see that category and then to be able to drill down into things. So you're providing them the experience they predict, the one that they want, the one that they expect.

It's better for topic modeling analysis and for all of the algorithms around things like Hummingbird, where Google looks at: Are you using the types of terms and phrases, do you have the type of architecture that we expect to find for this keyword?

It's better for search intent targeting, because the searcher intent is going to be fulfilled if you provide the multiple paths versus the narrow focus. It's easier keyword targeting for you. You're going to be able to know, "Hey, I need to target a lot of different terms and phrases and variations in floodlight and one very specific one in pinpoint."

There's usually higher searcher satisfaction, which means you get lower bounce rate. You get more engagement. You usually get a higher conversion rate. So it's good for all those things.

For example...

I'll actually create pages for each of antique scientific equipment and antique test tubes to illustrate this. So I've got two different types of pages here. One is my antique scientific equipment page.

This is that floodlight, shotgun approach, and what we're doing here is going to be very different from a pinpoint approach. It's looking at like, okay, you've landed on antique scientific equipment. Now, where do you want to go? What do you want to specifically explore? So we're going to have a little bit of content specifically about this topic, and how robust that is depends on the type of topic and the type of site you are.

If this is an e-commerce site or a site that's showing information about various antiques, well maybe we don't need very much content here. You can see the filtration that we've got is going to be pretty broad. So I can go into different centuries. I can go into chemistry, astronomy, physics. Maybe I have a safe for kids type of stuff if you want to buy your kids antique lab equipment, which you might be. Who knows? Maybe you're awesome and your kids are too. Then different types of stuff at a very broad level. So I can go to microscopes or test tubes, lab searches.

This is great because it's got broad intent foci, serving many different kinds of searchers with the same page because we don't know exactly what they want. It's got multiple keyword targets so that we can go after broad phrases like antique or old or historical or 13th, 14th, whatever century, science and scientific equipment ,materials, labs, etc., etc., etc. This is a broad page that could reach any and all of those. Then there's lots of navigational and refinement options once you get there.

Total opposite of pinpoint content.

Pinpoint content, like this antique test tubes page, we're still going to have some filtration options, but one of the important things to note is note how these are links that take you deeper. Depending on how deep the search volume goes in terms of the types of queries that people are performing, you might want to make a specific page for 17th century antique test tubes. You might not, and if you don't want to do that, you can have these be filters that are simply clickable and change the content of the page here, narrowing the options rather than creating completely separate pages.

So if there's no search volume for these different things and you don't think you need to separately target them, go ahead and just make them filters on the data that already appears on this page or the results that are already in here as opposed to links that are going to take you deeper into specific content and create a new page, a new experience.

You can also see I've got my individual content here. I probably would go ahead and add some content specifically to this page that is just unique here and that describes antique test tubes and the things that your searchers need. They might want to know things about price. They might want to know things about make and model. They might want to know things about what they were used for. Great. You can have that information broadly, and then individual pieces of content that someone might dig into.

This is narrower intent foci obviously, serving maybe one or two searcher intents. This is really talking about targeting maybe one to two separate keywords. So antique test tubes, maybe lab tubes or test tube sets, but not much beyond that.

Ten we're going to have fewer navigational paths, fewer distractions. We want to keep the searcher. Because we know their intent, we want to guide them along the path that we know they probably want to take and that we want them to take.

So when you're considering your content, choose wisely between shotgun/floodlight approach or sniper/pinpoint approach. Your searchers will be better served. You'll probably rank better. You'll be more likely to earn links and amplification. You're going to be more successful.

Looking forward to the comments, and we'll see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Seth's Blog : Opposition

Opposition

The opposite of creativity is fear.

And fear's enemy is creativity.

The opposite of yes is maybe.

Because maybe is non-definitive, and both yes and no give us closure and the chance to move ahead.

Perfect is the enemy of good.

Us is not the enemy of them. Us is the opposite of alone.

They can become us as soon as we permit it.

Everything is the opposite of okay. Everything can never be okay. Except when we permit it.

The right is not the opposite of the left. Each side has the chance to go up, which is precisely the opposite of down.

Dreams are not the opposite of reality. Dreams inform reality.

       

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