sâmbătă, 7 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!? Obama About to Suffer Glorious Defeat in Congress?

Posted: 07 Sep 2013 01:12 PM PDT

The coalition of the willing is now down to the US alone as France now wants to wait for more data on alleged gas usage. Yet, President  Obama rejects G20 pressure to abandon Syria air strike plan.

Obama Plans Full Court Press 

Inquiring minds note that Obama plans a 'full-court press' to sway Congress  and a speech to US citizens on September 10.
Obama's address to the nation from the White House on Tuesday will be part of a rejuvenated lobbying effort on Syria as Congress returns to Washington next week. A Democratic congressional aide said the administration is planning "a full-court press" aimed at undecided lawmakers.

According to a Washington Post count, only 23 senators have been willing to go on record in favor of military force, while 17 are against. It will likely take 60 of the Senate's 100 members to advance the measure to the House of Representatives.

In the House, where 218 votes will be required to pass the resolution, only 25 members are on record in support of military action so far, according to the Post, with 106 opposed.
Polls Show Citizens Solidly Against War

John Nichols writing for The Nation accurately sums up the situation in 'Nobody Wants This Except the Military-Industrial Complex'
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, backs President Obama's request for authorization to intervene militarily in Syria, as does House Democratic Minority Nancy Pelosi, D-California.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, is similarly "in," while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, in mum.

The president has done a pretty good job of selling his plan to congressional leaders.

He has not, however, sold it to the American people.

Thus, when members of Congress decide which side they're on in the Syrian intervention votes that are expected to take place next week, they will have to consider whether they want to respond to pro-war pressure from inside-the-Beltway—as so many did when they authorized action against Iraq—or to the anti-war sentiments of their constituents.

The United States says it has determined that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons in the civil war there," the Post/ABC poll asked. "Given this, do you support or oppose the United States launching missile strikes against the Syrian government?"

  • Sixty percent of registered voters (59 percent of all respondents) express opposition. Just 36 percent support intervention.
  • Self-identified Democrats are opposed 54-42—a 12 point gap.
  • Republicans are opposed 55-43—a similar 12 point gap.
  • Independents disapprove of intervention by a 66-30 margin. That figure suggests that members of Congress who represent swing districts might actually be more vulnerable if they vote to authorize the attack.

'Nobody Wants This Except the Military-Industrial Complex'

Nichols referred to a Huffington Post article quoting Congressman Alan Grayson, D-Florida, "nobody wants this except the military-industrial complex".
"One thing that is perfectly clear to me in my district, and I think is true in many other districts from speaking to other members, is that there is no desire, no desire on the part of people to be the world's policeman," Grayson said on SiriusXM's "The Agenda with Ari Rabin-Havt," which aired Thursday morning. "For us to pick up this gauntlet even on the basis of unequivocal evidence of chemical warfare by the Syrian army, deliberately against its own people -- even if there were unequivocal evidence of that -- that's just not what people in my district want."

That doesn't mean that opposition is universal, Grayson allowed. "I did notice, for what it's worth, that the manufacturer of the missiles that would be used has had an incredible run in their stock value in the last 60 days. Raytheon stock is up 20 percent in the past 60 days as the likelihood of the use of their missiles against Syria becomes more likely. So I understand that there is a certain element of our society that does benefit from this, but they're not the people who vote for me, or by the way the people who contribute to my campaign," he said. "Nobody wants this except the military-industrial complex."
Expected Votes on Authorizing Military Strike



The End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!

An article on The Daily Beast by David Stockman contains so much uncommon sense that it makes me want to stand up and salute!

Please consider The End of U.S. Imperium—Finally! by David Stockman.
Next week Congress can do far more than stop a feckless Tomahawk barrage on a small country that is already a graveyard of civil war and sectarian slaughter. By voting "no," it can trigger the end of the American Imperium—five decades of incessant meddling, bullying, and subversion around the globe that has added precious little to national security but left America fiscally exhausted and morally diminished.

Indeed, the tragedy of this vast string of misbegotten interventions—from the 1953 coup against Mohammad Mosaddegh in Iran through the recent bombing campaign in Libya—is that virtually none of them involved defending the homeland or any tangible, steely-eyed linkages to national security. They were all rooted in ideology—that is, anti-communism, anti-terrorism, humanitarianism, R2P-ism, nation building, American exceptionalism. These were the historic building blocks of a failed Pax Americana. Now the White House wants authorization for the last straw: namely, to deliver from the firing tubes of U.S. naval destroyers a dose of righteous "punishment" that has no plausible military or strategic purpose. By the president's own statements, the proposed attack is merely designed to censure the Syrian regime for allegedly visiting one particularly horrific form of violence on its own citizens.

Well, really? After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business? That's downright farcical. Nevertheless, by declaring himself the world's spanker in chief, President Obama has unwittingly precipitated the mother of all clarifying moments.

The recurrent phony narratives that generate these war-drum campaigns and then rationalize their disastrous aftermaths are rooted in a common structural cause: a vastly bloated war machine and national spying apparatus, the Imperial Presidency, and the house-trained lap-dogs that occupy the congressional intelligence, foreign affairs, and defense committees. This triangle of deception keeps the American public bamboozled with superficial propaganda and the media supplied with short bursts of reality TV when the Tomahawks are periodically let fly.

But it is the backbone of the permanent warfare-state bureaucracy that keeps the gambit going. Presidents come and go, but it is now obvious that virtually any ideological script—left or right—can be co-opted into service of the Imperium. The Obama White House's preposterous drive to intervene in the Syrian tinderbox with its inherent potential for fractures and blowback across the entire Middle East is being ramrodded by the dogma of "responsibility to protect." In that context, its chief protagonists—Susan Rice and Samantha Power—are the moral equivalent of Bush's neocon hit men, Douglas Feith and Paul Wolfowitz. In both cases, ideological agendas that have absolutely nothing to do with the safety of the American people were enabled to activate the awful violence of the American war machine mainly because it was there, marching in place waiting for an assignment.
Heart of the Hypocrisy

In case you missed it, Stockman nails the heart of US war-mongering hypocrisy with this question:

"After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business?"

There is much more in the article. Please take a look.

David Stockman is also the author of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America and the #1 New York Times bestseller The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.

Is this the "End of U.S. Imperium"? Finally?
We should all hope so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Calling for Limited Military Action in Syria

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Calling for Limited Military Action in Syria

In his weekly address, President Obama makes the case for limited and targeted military action to hold the Assad regime accountable for its violation of international norms prohibiting the use of chemical weapons.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Learn more about President Obama's response to Syria here.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 
 
  Top Stories

Chemical Weapons Attack in Syria: Saturday morning, President Obama laid out the case for a targeted military action against Syrian regime targets as a result of the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons that killed over one thousand people--including hundreds of children.

“After careful deliberation, I have decided that the United States should take military action against Syrian regime targets,” the President said.

I've long believed that our power is rooted not just in our military might, but in our example as a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. And that’s why I've made a second decision: I will seek authorization for the use of force from the American people's representatives in Congress.

On Tuesday, President Obama and the Vice President sat down with a group of bipartisan Congressional lawmakers to discuss the situation in Syria. “I've made a decision that America should take action,” President Obama said. “But I also believe that we will be much more effective, we will be stronger, if we take action together as one nation.”

On Friday, United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations Samantha Power spoke about the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons against Syrian and the need for an international response.

The President Visits Sweden: On Wednesday, President Obama traveled to Stockholm, Sweden for a brief visit before the G-20 Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia. President Obama’s trip to Sweden is the first bilateral visit by a U.S. President. While in Sweden, the President held a press conference with Prime Minister Reinfieldt, and participated in an event honoring Raoul Wallenberg, a Swedish diplomat and honorary U.S. citizen, at the Great Synagogue.

President Obama also toured an expo at the Royal Institute of Technology, which featured clean energy technologies developed in Sweden. Thursday morning, the President met with the King and Queen of Sweden on Thursday morning before flying to St. Petersburg for the G-20 Summit.

G-20 Summit: After arriving in St. Petersburg for the first day of the G-20 Summit on Thursday, the President held a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Abe of Japan and took part in a G-20 Working Session, where he and other world leaders discussed sustainable development. On Friday, President Obama held bilateral meetings with President Xi of China and President Hollande of France and participated in a G-20 session on investing in growth and jobs.

Labor Day: Monday was Labor Day and in honor of the working men and women in America, President Obama spoke about the importance of fighting for the middle class and making sure everyone who works hard in the United States has the chance to get ahead.

Secretary of Labor Sworn-In: Vice President Joe Biden swore-in Tom Pérez as Secretary of Labor on Wednesday. During his remarks, Secretary Pérez shared how he will continue to advocate for the working men and women and continue this country’s promise - it doesn’t matter where you come from, those who work hard deserve a fair shot at success.

 

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Seth's Blog : The trust brand

 

The trust brand

Dave Ramsey was telling a small business person how he'd built his media empire. The guy interrupted, "well, sure, that's fine for you, because you have a trust brand."

A trust brand?

What other kinds of brands are there?

Perhaps your brand stands for cheap or convenient. Sure, you can win with that for a while, at least until someone gets a little cheaper or the internet gets a little closer. For the rest of us, though, there's only one option, isn't there?

When you have a choice in what to buy, you will first and foremost (and second and third in fact) base your choice on a simple question, "who do I trust to keep the promise that the marketers are making?"

The fact is, people will soon forget if they overpaid for something. They will probably never (ever!) forget if you violated their trust.

The fascinating thing: even though most everyone shakes their head in agreement on this topic, they get stuck answering the question, "how have you regularly overinvested and prioritized being the most trustworthy organization/individual in your industry?" Being just like the others and doing your job doesn't get you to this level.

It doesn't matter if you work for a search engine, run a plumbing service or organize a conference. If I've come to know you and trust you and then you turn your back on me, abandon me and make me feel like a fool for trusting you, I won't be back any time soon.

       

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vineri, 6 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


The Dick Cheney-Syria Oil Connection

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 06:15 PM PDT

It appears there may be some energy sources in Syria that I was unaware of previously. They are in the Golan Heights area of Syria, now occupied by Israel. Dick Cheney is in the picture.

Please consider Cheney-Linked Company to Drill in Occupied Golan Heights.
The Israeli government awarded a local subsidiary of U.S.-based Genie Energy the rights to explore for oil and natural gas in about 150 square miles of the southern section of the Golan Heights.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said keeping Blue Helmets stationed in the area was essential to peace given the potential for conflict spilling out of the Syrian civil war. Genie Energy said there may be a significant amount of oil and natural gas in the license area. When Israel set its sights on offshore natural gas, Hezbollah warned that Israel shouldn't encroach on Lebanese territory. If recent concerns about Hezbollah's influence are any indication, the Shiite resistance movement may focus its guns onshore amid expanding Israeli energy interests. With former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney serving as an adviser to Genie, however, the implications may go beyond immediate worries over Hezbollah.

Genie Energy said there may be "significant quantities" of natural resources in the region. The license area encompasses about 150 square miles of the southern portion of the Golan Heights, considered territory occupied by the Israeli military.

"Genie Energy intends to conduct an exploration program to further investigate the size and quality of the resource in the new license area," the company explained in a statement.

Dick Cheney is serving as an adviser to Genie as it plans work in an area encompassing about 30 percent of the Golan Heights.
Also consider Separating Politics and War From Oil and the Economy

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Change of Heart: The Case for Sending Personnel to Syria; Totally-Go-It-Alone Ironies

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 11:49 AM PDT

I have had a change of heart. The US should send personnel to Syria. Notice I said "personnel", not combat troops or military equipment.

I had this change of heart after reading The Onion article Poll: Majority Of Americans Approve Of Sending Congress To Syria.
As President Obama continues to push for a plan of limited military intervention in Syria, a new poll of Americans has found that though the nation remains wary over the prospect of becoming involved in another Middle Eastern war, the vast majority of U.S. citizens strongly approve of sending Congress to Syria.

The New York Times/CBS News poll showed that though just 1 in 4 Americans believe that the United States has a responsibility to intervene in the Syrian conflict, more than 90 percent of the public is convinced that putting all 535 representatives of the United States Congress on the ground in Syria—including Senate pro tempore Patrick Leahy, House Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and, in fact, all current members of the House and Senate—is the best course of action at this time. 

"I believe it is in the best interest of the United States, and the global community as a whole, to move forward with the deployment of all U.S. congressional leaders to Syria immediately," respondent Carol Abare, 50, said in the nationwide telephone survey, echoing the thoughts of an estimated 9 in 10 Americans who said they "strongly support" any plan of action that involves putting the U.S. House and Senate on the ground in the war-torn Middle Eastern state. "With violence intensifying every day, now is absolutely the right moment—the perfect moment, really—for the United States to send our legislators to the region."

"In fact, my preference would have been for Congress to be deployed months ago," she added.
France Drops Out of the Coalition of the Willing

The coalition of the willing is now down to one. French President Francois Hollande said after a G-20 meeting France to wait for U.N. inspectors' report on Syria.

Obama can stick with his "world must act" message, but the world is increasingly fed up with Obama's rush to war message.

Totally-Go-It-Alone Ironies

ABC's Rick Klein noted historical ironies in Obama Faces Go-It (Almost)-Alone Decision On Syria.
President Obama will be alone should he choose to act militarily against Syria, for nearly all intents and purposes. He won't have the public behind him; nearly 8 in 10 Americans say they won't support military action without congressional approval. The vote in Parliament yesterday means he won't even have Great Britain. The historical ironies run deep. "Just words," it turns out, matter. And a man who would not be president except for his harsh critique of "dumb wars" and go-it-alone foreign policies is poised to engage in new military action virtually alone.
Note: The above was written on August 30, before France dropped out. Almost-Go-It-Alone has become Totally-Go-It-Alone.

Is Obama's Peace Price Losing Its Luster?
ABC's Abby Phillip notes: "Perhaps the most profound issue surrounding my receipt of this prize is the fact that I am the commander-in-chief of the military of a nation in the midst of two wars," Obama said in his acceptance speech. On the bring [brink] of  a military strike on Syria, Obama is also dogged by the irony that his allure to liberals in the Democratic primary when he ran for president in 2008 stemmed largely from his opposition to the Iraq war. Obama never gave his peace prize back but some of his critics say Obama probably should. "There's a growing sense that the Nobel Peace Prize has been tarnished by the award to Obama," said Norman Solomon, whose website RootAction.org launched a petition earlier this year for Obama to give back the award.
Syrian Woman Rips Into McCain At Town Hall For His Support For Bombing Syria



Link if video does not play: Syrian Woman Rips Into McCain

The case regarding so-called "collateral damage" is extremely pertinent. Neither McCain nor Obama cares how many lives they destroy to get the regime change they want (then when they get the regime change they will not be happy with the result).

Let Obama Make the Case (To the Syrian People, Not US Congress)

In addition to Congress, I propose we send Nobel Peace Prize winner President Obama to Syria to plead his case for war to the Syrian people.

President Obama and Senator McCain should go first.

In the meantime, please Sign the Petition to Revoke Obama's Nobel Peace Prize

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Grand Coalition" Led by Merkel, Not Going to Happen; Expect a Shocker in Germany Election

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 10:42 AM PDT

I am going to stick my neck out with a pair of predictions:

  1. Forget about a "Grand Coalition" led by Merkel. It's not going to happen.
  2. The AfD anti-euro party will be in the next German parliament.

AfD had been polling around 2.5%. However, in the wake of Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) stating a need for more aid for Greece, one pollster has AfD at 4%.

Reader Bernd from Germany (not AfD party leader Bernd Lucke) says the 4% figure is significant. If a party shows four percent in polls, potential voters are drawn in because they no longer fear their vote will be "lost", due to the 5% threshold.

The election is on September 22. Yet 30 percent of voters are still undecided.

Coalition Possibilities

  1. "Same" CDU/CSU + FDP
  2. "Grand Coalition" CDU + SPD led by Merkel
  3. "Grand Coalition" CDU + SPD led by someone else
  4. "Red Green Coalition" SPD + Grüne (Greens) + DieLinke
  5. "CDU/CSU+AfD Coalition" 

IF FDP can reach 5% of the vote, it is possible the same yellow-black coalition (CDU/CSU+FDP) rules as today. If FDP fails to reach 5%, then several alternate scenarios come into play:

There has been no talk at all of possibility number five above. Yet, if AfD can gather 6-7% (a number I think is possible), then there could be a coalition that includes AfD.

None of the "Grand Coalitions" seem stable.

Reader Bernd Comments
  • FDP does not make (or barely makes) the 5% margin in two polls
  • AfD is at 4% in at least one poll
  • 35% of voters are undecided, so much movement to come
  • Recent momentum has been away from CDU
  • In the "undecided" voter column, Steinbrück leads 44% over Merkel 38%.
  • A big problem for CDU and Merkel is to get their supporters to vote. CDU and Merkel followers are deeply convinced that Merkel has such a massive lead, that there is no cause for fear.
  • The State elections in Bavaria are held one week before federal elections. In Bavaria, Steinbrück's SPD will be trounced. Less than 20% of popular votes are a real possibility and might put a serious damper on the mood for the SPD in the last week of federal campaigning.
  • Die Linke is stable. However, many "Die Linke" voters are probably hidden in the undecided block. I would give them more than 9%


After reading, analyzing and comparing statistics, figures and the whole nine yards, my latest prediction is as follows:

  • CDU/CSU: 37%
  • SPD: 24%
  • Grüne: 11%
  • Die Linke: 10%
  • AfD: 06%
  • FDP: 05%
  • Total: 94%
  • Lost votes due to 5% threshold: 6%


I have the most serious difficulty to assess FDP. It is really  possible, they might not make it into Parliament. Reason: most Germans highly prefer a coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD over the current one of CDU/CSU and FDP.

Such being the case, strategic voters might support CDU directly, rather than giving their votes to FDP (remember, Germans have two votes, so "strategic splitting" is common).

The real dark horse is the AfD.

AfD is perceived to be positioned firmly in the center-right of the German political spectrum.

In reality, this is not so. AfD is more libertarian than right. But who would know the difference in a country, where being called a NAZI has become an every day affair of political opponent bashing.

If FDP and AfD make it into Parliament, a coalition between CDU/CSU/AfD/FDP might be an option for a stable Government. In reality, their positions are a lot closer together, than most people think or perceive.

Mr. Steinbrück will not be part of a "grand coalition".

Clearly, and there can not be any doubt: German voters want a grand coalition, with Mm Merkel as Chancellor and Steinbrück as second in command. Yet, Steinbrück has repeatedly said, again and again, he can only be the "King of Schnitzel" or he will resign as a politician after the campaign. I tend to believe him!

SPD party leader, Mr. Gabriel, may enter a Grand Coalition, but such an arrangement may not be very stable. If SPD goes for such a coalition, it will be the final demise of that party.

Best wishes
Bernd
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Establishment Survey: +169K Jobs, June and July Revised Lower; Household Survey: Employment -115,000, Not in Labor Force +516,000; BLS in Wonderland

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 08:31 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 169,000 jobs.

For the second consecutive month, the previous two months were revised lower. The employment change for July was revised down by 58,000 (from +162,000 to +104,000). Last month the BLS revised June employment down by 7,000 (from +195,000 to +188,000).

This month, the BLS said June was still not correct and revised June lower by another 16,000 to +172,000.

See the change in pattern here? Earlier in the year, revisions were to the plus side.

In spite of the above, the unemployment rate dropped 0.1 to 7.3%. After all, it's the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, not the establishment survey baseline jobs number. So let's take a look at the factors.

Explaining the Unemployment Rate Drop

  • Employment fell by 115,000 
  • Those in the labor force fell by 312,000 
  • The civilian population rose by 203,000.
  • The Participation Rate (The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) fell 0.2 to 63.2%, beating the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.

Employment fell by 115,000 but the labor force fell more (in spite of a population rise of 203,000). That's why the unemployment rate dropped.

August BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Payrolls +169,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Employment -115,000 - Household Survey
  • US Unemployment -198,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work -334,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work +211,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.1 - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment -0.3 to 13.7% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Labor Force -312,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force +516,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate -0.2 at 63.2 - Household Survey


Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,554,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,006,000 (an average of 167,000 a month)
  • In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,483,000 to 11,316,000 (a drop of 1,167,000)
  • Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 37.9%, an increase of 0.9 from last month.
  • The mean duration of unemployment also increased this month, from 36.6 weeks to 37 weeks.
  • Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
  • 7,911,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,043,000. There has been almost no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.


August 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) August 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Employment History Since January 20000



click on chart for sharper image

Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees rose 0.1 to 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings of all private workers rose $0.05 to $24.00. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.05 to $23.76.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013



Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.3%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 13.7%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job 
  5. Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 9%. In addition, there are 7,911,000 people who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.

Wonderland Statistics

Compared to recent Gallup surveys, these BLS stats regarding the base unemployment rate and the alternative measures as well are straight from wonderland. For details, please see Gallup Says Seasonally-Adjusted Unemployment Climbs to 8.6%; Who to Believe (Gallup or the BLS)?

I believe Gallup. Thus, I expect more downward revisions in jobs, and upward revisions in the unemployment rate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Fake Chemistry Professor Trolls class [Video]

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 11:21 AM PDT



Patrick of the The Chamber Boys radio show on WRUR's The Sting fools a whole freshman chemistry class at the University of Rochester, NY, on their first day of class, into thinking he's their professor, until Mr. H., their real professor shows up.

Korean Photoshop Trolls Make Their Own Rules

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 11:02 AM PDT

The Korean Facebook page called "We do Photoshop" has become extremely popular. It shows Photoshop requests and the funny interpretations of these by some Photoshop masters.

Request: Could you make the flowers in the background brighter? I love red flowers.



And now? Still love red flowers?


Request: Many girls are afraid of me for some reason. Can you make me cuter?


What can be cuter than a baby?


Request: Put me in the middle of the heart.


That's what you wanted?


Request: I love hugging this doll but can you make the doll bigger and hug me?


There! The best doll you could ever have.


Request: This is my picture of me and my students but the one of the girls standing in front of me looks a bit sullen.Can you create a sense of unity in the image?




Request: Make me sexy.


No problem.


Request: In this photo, I'm all alone. Could you put me behind my friends?


Now you're really behind.


Request: I am waving to the chickens. Can you make sure that they look happy to see me?


Now they are really happy.


Request: Please change the background. Add in a monster and make it look like we're fighting each other.




Request: Make it look like I am running from a scary man.


Is it scary enough?


Request: Remove this stupid yellow blanket and create a portrait image like for document photos.


I think it turned out perfectly.


Request: Can you remove the people to the right.


Is that better?


Request: I want to look as though I love Coke.


Here you go pal!


Request: Can you make the fire look like it is coming from my ass. Like a rocket flying into space.


Let's be realistic...

Bodybuilders Then and Now

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 08:47 AM PDT

The evolution of the bodybuilding.

1905






1935 



1938 





1940 



1951 





1955 



1956 



1961 



1963 



1964 



1971 







1976





1980 



2012