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miercuri, 11 decembrie 2013
yasinyoyo: "Lilyhammer Season 2 : Ep 6" and more videos
Seth's Blog : Eight email failures (and questions for those that want to do better)
Eight email failures (and questions for those that want to do better)
A friend sent out an email blast (I hate that word, for good reason) to his ample address book to promote a new project and got a lot of blowback for it. He asked me for my feedback...
- Just because you have had a previous relationship with someone doesn't mean you have permission to email them. Permission marketing is anticipated, personal and relevant messaging. The simple measure is this: Would they miss you if you didn't mail them? If not, then you're fooling yourself into thinking you have something you don't.
- Blaming the tool. There are a wealth of powerful email tools out there (like Mailchimp). If your email campaign isn't working, it's almost certainly not their fault. Don't waste time looking for a better pencil--learn to write better.
- Your mailmerge is broken. Dear
is far worse than no mailmerge at all. Here's the simple test: if you're not willing to spend fifteen seconds per name reviewing the list and cleaning it up (why did you email me six times?), then don't expect that we have fifteen seconds to read what you wrote. If you have 4,000 names, that's 1,000 minutes. Don't have 1,000 minutes? Don't send the mail. - Text is what humans send. Corporations send HTML and pretty graphics. Either can work if expectations are set properly, but if you're a human, act like one.
- Why are you emailing me? If you can't tell me in six words what you need me to do, it's unlikely I'll be able to guess.
- The thing you need me to do better be fun, worth doing and generous. If it's not, I'm not going to do it, no matter how much you need me to do it.
- When does this end? If you're going to send me a series of notes to promote something, does it go on forever? Telling me what's ahead is more likely to earn you permission going forward. "Oh good, the next one!" If people aren't saying that, you've failed.
- Pinging everyone, at once. Why on earth would you hit SEND ALL? Send 20, see what happens. Send 20 different ones, compare. Send 50. Now send all.
If your email promotion is a taking, not a giving, I think you should rethink it. If you still want to take the time and attention and trust of your 4,000 closest friends, think hard about what that means for the connections you've built over the years. There are few promotional emergencies that are worth trading your reputation for.
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marți, 10 decembrie 2013
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- About That Illinois Pension "Fix"
- French Industrial Output Drops Unexpectedly; France Finance Minister in Complete Denial; Expect the Unexpected
- Close Inspection of Alleged "Draconian" Cuts in Food Stamp Program; Mish SNAP Proposal
About That Illinois Pension "Fix" Posted: 10 Dec 2013 09:30 PM PST The highly touted Illinois plan to fix its pension system is largely hot air. I was waiting for details to prove just that and they came out today. Let's flashback to the initial claim. A headline from six days ago reads Illinois lawmakers approve fix for $100b pension crisis The Illinois Legislature approved a historic plan Tuesday to eliminate the state's $100 billion pension shortfall, a vote that proponents described as critical to repairing the state's deeply troubled finances but that faces the immediate threat of a legal challenge from labor unions.Actuarially Unsound Unions are opposed to the plan, as always, and will file lawsuits, as always. But the plan does not even work. Via email, Jonathan Ingram, at the Illinois Policy Institute explains... House Speaker Mike Madigan and proponents of the temporary pension "fix" enacted last week promised taxpayers that it would immediately reduce the state's unfunded pension liability by about $20 billion. But despite these promises, the credit rating agencies have indicated that they would be waiting for actuarial analyses before making any decisions on how the new law will affect Illinois' worst-in-the-nation credit rating.Pension Fight Could Create Deeper Hole The Washington Post reports Ill. pension fight could create deeper fiscal hole With the fight over solving Illinois' worst-in-the-nation pension shortfall now headed to the courts, the financially troubled state faces a grim possibility: The plan could be tossed, and Illinois could wind up in an even deeper fiscal hole than the one it's in now.Economic Good of the State If Governor Quinn really wants to do something for the "economic good of the state" he can start by signing legislation that would ...
Plan Worth Fighting For As long as there is going to be a court battle with the unions, you may as well go to court over a plan that will actually fix the system. Illinois should figure pension liabilities at a reasonable rate of return, say the 30-year treasury rate. That would make the plan underfunding look far worse today, but so be it. The idea is sound. Then after barring new entrants into the scheme, the state should hike taxes on pension recipients enough to make the system fully funded with no additional taxes on regular taxpayers. I propose something along the lines of "taxing pension benefits above a specified amount at 80%, taken straight out of the check". The "specified amount" would be determined based on what it takes to make the system actuarially sound in a reasonable timeframe (say 15 years). If you going to have a fight, make it a fight worthwhile. As always, it's best to have a plan B. I propose a simple one: default on pension obligations above a certain level, but pay all other state obligations early to avoid bond market disruptions. Public Unions Should Bear the Brunt of the Pain Public unions (in conjunctions with pandering politicians) wrecked Detroit, and numerous cities in California and other states. Together they wrecked Illinois. It's perfectly fair for unions to bear the brunt of the pain in working out a solution. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 10 Dec 2013 11:39 AM PST I am in a near-constant state of amusement regarding what economists and analysts expect vs. what happens. A perfect example came up today. MarketWatch reports French Industrial Output Drops Unexpectedly. French industrial output dropped unexpectedly in October for the second month in a row, data from national statistics bureau Insee showed Tuesday, providing a further indication of a weak start to the final quarter of 2013 in the euro zone. Why Was This Unexpected? This decline should have been completely expected. I can give you three reasons.
If you are looking for a 4th bonus reason, please pencil in "Francois Hollande" and all the socialist ministers in his government. From the third Markit link above ... Sector Output Growth ( Nov. )Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: "declines in the PMIs for Italy and France raise the prospect of these countries' economies contracting again in the fourth quarter, meaning Italy's recession will have extended into a staggering tenth successive quarter and France will have slid back into a new recession." Amusingly, analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a 0.2% rise in industrial production. France Finance Minister in Complete Denial Those of you seeking still more amusement can find it in one of the usual places: statements made by French politicians. For example (and also from today), the Financial Times reports Pierre Moscovici, France Finance Minister Says Economy has 'Truly Emerged from Recession' "France has truly emerged from recession," Moscovici insists. "Of course, I would like to see the growth rate increase, but I wish we could stop this attitude of systematic doubt about the French economy."Anyone Believe Moscovici? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Close Inspection of Alleged "Draconian" Cuts in Food Stamp Program; Mish SNAP Proposal Posted: 10 Dec 2013 09:23 AM PST Inquiring minds are digging into the alleged "Draconian Cuts" in Food Stamps as championed by the Daily Koz. Of course the Daily Koz is not alone in whining about "draconian" cuts. Note: The food stamp program is now called "SNAP" Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. "The Unthinkable" On December 5, Greg Kaufmann, writer for The Nation wondered Why Is a Senate Democrat Agreeing to Another $8 Billion in Food Stamp Cuts? On the same day that President Obama eloquently described his vision of an economy defined by economic mobility and opportunity for all, Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow was busy cutting a deal with House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas to slice another $8 to $9 billion from food stamps (SNAP), according to a source close to the negotiations.Mother Jones Says "Kill the Farm Bill Entirely" Bitching and moaning would not be complete without Mother Jones getting in on the act. On November 12, Mother Jones proposed House Dems Can Block GOP Food Stamp Cuts—by Killing the Farm Bill The food stamps program—which helps feed 1 in 7 Americans—is in peril. Republicans in the House have proposed a farm bill—the five-year bill that funds agriculture and nutrition programs—that would slash food stamps by $40 billion. But by taking advantage of House Republicans' desire to cut food stamps as much as possible, Democrats might be able to prevent cuts from happening at all.Where's the Beef? On December 10, The Tennessean more evenly covers the issue in its report TN House Republicans back $40 billion in food stamp cuts. The future of food stamps — the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — remains the largest sticking point in House-Senate negotiations to finalize a new farm bill before the end of the year.Close Inspection of "Draconian" Cuts Please note that the alleged $40 billion in cuts is really only $4 billion in a close to $80 billion program. They arrive at $40 billion by multiplying $4 billion by 10 years. OK Fine. The cuts then are $40 billion in an $800 billion program. And I actually doubt we will ever see those "cuts" in the first place. A few charts from reader Tim Wallace will help explain. SNAP Growth in Benefits ![]() click on any chart for sharper image SNAP Benefit Facts
SNAP Participation ![]() SNAP Participation Facts
SNAP Per Person Benefits ![]() SNAP Per Person Benefits Facts
Supposedly a 5% cut is draconian. The Problem
As is typical with government programs, there is no incentive by the administrators to eliminate waste or fraud. The more funding for food stamps, the bigger the salaries and staffs of the administrators. I suggest that we need a way to provide necessary safety-net benefits while simultaneously providing an incentive to get off the program and get a job. I repeat my proposal. Mish SNAP Proposal
My proposal will not only lower the cost of the food stamp program, the resultant healthier diets would lower Medicaid and Medicare costs as well. Moreover, my proposal would give people a strong incentive to get off the food stamp program without intrusive, costly big-brother ideas like drug testing which cannot possibly work for the simple reason that anyone who fails will steal to get food rather than starve. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics
Damn Cool Pics |
It Happens When You Drink Too Much Posted: 10 Dec 2013 11:14 AM PST |
Posted: 10 Dec 2013 10:52 AM PST |
Only Dog Owners Will Understand Posted: 09 Dec 2013 09:16 PM PST |
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