miercuri, 24 iunie 2015

Seth's Blog : The tragedy of small expectations (and the trap of false dreams)

The tragedy of small expectations (and the trap of false dreams)

Ask a hundred students at Harvard Business School if they expect to be up for a good job when they graduate, and all of them will say "yes."

Ask a bright ten-year old girl if she expects to have a chance at a career as a mathematician, and the odds are she's already been brainwashed into saying "no."

Expectations aren't guarantees, but expectations give us the chance to act as if, to trade now for later, to invest in hard work and productive dreaming on our way to making an impact.

Expectations work for two reasons. First, they give us the enthusiasm and confidence to do hard work. Second, like a placebo, they subtly change our attitude, and give us the resilience to make it through the rough spots. "Eventually" gives us the energy to persist.

When our culture (our media, our power structures, our society) says, "people who look like you shouldn't expect to have a life like that," we're stealing. Stealing from people capable of achieving more, and stealing from our community as well. How can our society (that's us) say, "we don't expect you to graduate, we don't expect you to lead, we don't expect you to be trusted to make a difference?"

When people are pushed to exchange their passion and their effort for the false solace of giving up and lowering their expectations, we all lose. And (almost as bad, in the other direction) when they substitute the reality of expectations for the quixotic quest of impossibly large, unrealistic dreams, we lose as well. Disneyesque dreams are a form of hiding, because Prince Charming isn't coming any time soon.

Expectations are not guarantees. Positive thinking doesn't guarantee results, all it offers is something better than negative thinking.

Expectations that don't match what's possible are merely false dreams. And expectations that are too small are a waste. We need teachers and leaders and peers who will help us dig in deeper and discover what's possible, so we can push to make it likely.

Expectations aren't wishes, they're part of a straightforward equation: This work plus that effort plus these bridges lead to a likelihood of that outcome. It's a clear-eyed awareness of what's possible combined with a community that shares your vision.

It's easy to manipulate the language of expectations and turn it into a bootstrapping, you're-on-your-own sort of abandonment. But expectation is contagious. Expectation comes from our culture. And most of all, expectation depends on support—persistent, generous support to create a place where leaping can occur.

There are limits all around us, stereotypes, unlevel playing fields, systemic challenges where there should be support instead. A quiet but intensely corrosive impact these injustices create is in the minds of the disenfranchised, in their perception of what is possible.

The mirror we hold up to the person next to us is one of the most important pictures she will ever see.

If we can help just one person refuse to accept false limits, we've made a contribution. If we can give people the education, the tools and the access they need to reach their goals, we've made a difference. And if we can help erase the systemic stories, traditions and policies that push entire groups of people to insist on less, we've changed the world. 

       

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marți, 23 iunie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Greetings from Beautiful Iceland

Posted: 23 Jun 2015 10:04 AM PDT

Greetings from beautiful Iceland!

Liz and I are taking 17 days to circle the ring road. We are also taking many side excursions. This is day 6 of 17. We are currently in Borgarfjordur Eystri in the East section of Iceland.

I have some phenomenal images to share, but currently they are in "raw" format. I will post some after we return.

Google Ads Follow You Wherever You Go

Google knows we golf. This ad popped up just now while writing this post. 



Here is another ad I captured.



The above ad extols the virtues of duty free shopping.

I Will Follow Him

In honor of Google knowing who you are, what you do, and where you are every moment of your "connected" life, I offer the following musical tribute.



Link if video does not play: I Will Follow Him, a number one hit form 1963 by Little Peggy March.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Durable Goods Orders Plunge in May, Huge Downward Revisions in April

Posted: 23 Jun 2015 09:34 AM PDT

In the durable goods May forecast, the Bloomberg Consensus Economist's Estimate was well off the mark.

The consensus estimate was -0.6% with the actual number a dismal -1.8%, but heavily skewed by a drop in aircraft orders.



The economists had the negative sign correct, but given the huge downward revision from -0.5% to -1.5% for April, they really missed the mark by a mile.
Big downward revisions to April data almost sink the latest durable goods report where, however, important details show some life. Total orders sank 1.8 percent in May but this is badly skewed by a 49 percent drop in aircraft orders where outsized month-to-month swings are the norm. The April revision is the big surprise here, now at minus 1.5 from an initial minus 0.5 percent in an unwelcome reminder of how volatile this series is.

Stripping out transportation, which is where aircraft is tracked, shows strength in the month at plus 0.5 percent which hits the Econoday consensus. But here again, the April revision swings in and takes an initial 0.5 percent gain to minus 0.3 percent.

The key area, however, that remains on the positive side is capital goods where new orders excluding aircraft rose 0.4 percent in May vs a 0.3 percent slip in April which was initially posted at plus 1.0 percent. Shipments for this reading, in what is a plus for second-quarter GDP, show back-to-back gains of 0.3 percent.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Amazingly Unique Jewelry

Posted: 23 Jun 2015 10:41 AM PDT

Would you like to know What Your Jewelry Preference Says About You? This is some truly unique jewelry. It is handmade by an independent design studio that specializes in urban jewelry in Brooklyn, New York. The jewelry is elegant and magnificently crafted.


















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