sâmbătă, 12 noiembrie 2011

Seth's Blog : Lifetime value of a customer/cost per customer

Lifetime value of a customer/cost per customer

Two things every business and non-profit needs to know:

  • How much does it cost you to get one new customer.
  • On average, what's that customer worth over the relationship you have with her?

The internet revolutionizes both sides of the equation.

Facebook and Twitter are marvels because for each, the cost of a new customer is vanishingly close to zero. When you can get people into a relationship for nothing, you don't need to make much on each one to be delighted with the outcome.

Note that the ongoing, digital connection with a customer can dramatically increase the lifetime profit as well. Netflix is far more likely to have a higher average lifetime value than the local video store. Musicians are moving from making a dollar a listener from CDs to hundreds of dollars a true fan in collectibles and concert tickets--things they can only deliver because they know who their best customers are.

On the other hand, legions of unsophisticated marketers are getting both sides of the equation wrong.

They invest a lot in hoopla, spin and hype to get strangers to notice them (once), making the cost of a connection high, and then, once they borrow a little attention, they put everything into a one shot transaction, which few people engage in, and those that do create little value, because the permission asset is then discarded.

Dates, not singles bars. Subscriptions, not vegomatics.

 

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vineri, 11 noiembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


European Crisis Through Eyes of 11-Year Old in Comic he Created

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 11:11 PM PST

Reader Geoffrey writes ...
Dear Mish

I read your column daily and am always refreshed by your insight. I often discuss the topics with my children who show great interest in the world economic situation.

Lately we have been discussing the economic crisis in Europe and my 11-year-old drew a cartoon that he feels is an approach as sensible as any that are being proposed by the "experts" in Europe.

It is attached as a jpeg and you may publish it if you wish!

Geoffrey Robertson
Panel 1 of 2.
Click on panels for sharper image.



Panel 2 of 2.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


"I Want You All Fired" Yet Another Fantastic Video from Nigel Farage, Speaking to European Parliament

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 03:32 PM PST

Farage asks MEPs "What planet are you on?", then proposes they all be fired.



It's an awesome video. Please play it as a stark contrast to everyone wanting to keep the Eurozone intact, at any cost.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Greece Turns to Iran for Oil as Credit Shut Down Elsewhere; EU Considers Oil Sanctions on Iran

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 02:00 PM PST

Greek suppliers concerned about the potential default of Greece have shut off financing for oil. In turn this has caused Greece to turn to Iran. However, the EU is now threatening to impose more sanctions on Iran over nuclear issues. If the EU acts that stupidly, the Greek economy will shut down.

Please consider Greece turns to Iranian oil as default fears deter trade
Nov 11, 2011
Traders said Greece has turned to Iran as the supplier of last resort despite rising pressure from Washington and Brussels to stifle trade as part of a campaign against Tehran's nuclear program.

The near paralysis of oil dealings with Greece, which has four refineries, shows how trade in Europe could stall due to a breakdown in trust caused by the euro zone debt crisis, which is threatening to spread to further countries.

More than two dozen European traders contacted by Reuters at oil majors and trading houses said the lack of bank financing has forced Greece to stop purchasing crude from Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in recent months.

Greece, with no domestic production, relies on oil imports and in 2010 imported 46 percent of its crude from Russia and 16 percent from Iran. Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan provided 10 percent each, Libya 9 percent and Iraq 7 percent, according to data from the European Union.

"They are really making no secret when you speak to them and say they are surviving on Iranian stuff because others will simply not sell to them in the current environment," one trader in the Mediterranean said.
EU Considers Oil Sanctions on Iran

Reuters reports EU mulls new sanctions against defiant Iran
Nov 10
The European Union may approve fresh sanctions against Iran within weeks, after a U.N. agency said Tehran had worked to design nuclear bombs, EU diplomats said Thursday.

Iran denies trying to build atom bombs and its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said any U.S. or Israeli attack on its nuclear sites would be met with "iron fists.

Iran already faces a wide range of U.N. sanctions, as well as some imposed unilaterally by the United States and the EU.

New EU sanctions would be a significant part of Western efforts to ratchet up pressure on Tehran after the U.N. nuclear watchdog's report this week that laid bare a trove of intelligence suggesting Iran is seeking nuclear weapons.

Tehran, which says its nuclear program is for producing electricity and other peaceful purposes, said Wednesday it remains ready for negotiations with world powers on the issue.
Economic Insanity

Banning Iranian oil would be the kiss of death for the Greek economy and economic insanity in general for Europe. Given the oversupply of economically insane ideas lately, it is difficult to predict the outcome.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Slovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entry in 2007; Might Slovenia Exit the Eurozone First?

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 12:03 PM PST

Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor's government was toppled in a no-confidence vote on September 20 and the crisis in Slovenia has worsened ever since.

Bloomberg reports Slovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entry
Slovenia's 10-year government bonds slid for a fourth day, with the yield topping 7 percent for the first time since the nation adopted the euro in 2007, as the debt crisis in Europe roils markets.

The yield rose to 7.14 percent at 1:05 p.m. in Ljubljana, according to Bloomberg data. Slovenia, which holds early elections next month, was cut by Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings on the government's collapse, the poor economic outlook and a weak banking industry. The former Yugoslav republic is also a victim of its "proximity" to Italy, which is struggling to fend off an investor crisis of confidence.
Slovenia Must Tackle Debt

Bostjan Vasle, Slovenia's chief economic forecaster, says Slovenia Must Tackle Debt as Recession Looms
Slovenia's next government must cut public spending as the likelihood of the nation sliding into a recession because of the euro region's debt crisis increases, according to the government's forecasting institute.

Slovenes will vote on Dec. 4 after Prime Minister Borut Pahor's government was toppled in a no-confidence vote on Sept. 20. Its failure to cut public spending and the rejection of the pension changes in June prompted credit rating companies to lower the country's assessment.

The export-driven economy is faltering as demand in Europe weakens after governments embarked on spending cuts to allay investors' concern over debt sustainability. Gross domestic product weakened to an annual 0.9 percent in second quarter from a 2.3 percent pace in the first three months.

"The key challenge for the new Cabinet will be to consolidate public finances," Bostjan Vasle, the institute's director told reporters in Ljubljana today. "We can't rule out the possibility economic growth will be negative in some quarters as there are visible signs of an economic slowdown in Europe."
Recession 100% Guaranteed

Some of these bureaucrat's comments are rather humorous, such as "We can't rule out the possibility economic growth will be negative in some quarters."

Good grief. Negative growth is 100% guaranteed.

Might Slovenia Exit the Eurozone First?

Slovenia had no business joining the Eurozone in the first place. With all eyes on Greece, perhaps it is Slovenia that says goodbye first.

The first thing Slovenia has in its favor is the ECB and IMF did not blow hundreds of billions of euros attempting to rescue it.

The second thing it has in its favor is recent grief immediately after joining the Eurozone.

Let's see what a new government brings. Hopefully a sensible one that exits the EMU, proving the world will not end when a country does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Whack-a-Mole Euphoria; Reflections on 6-Sigma Events

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 10:14 AM PST

Hooray! The Borg Technocrats have saved us already, even though they have yet to lift a metallic finger.

The Borg took a huge whack not at a mole actually, but an Italian Elephant. This event instantaneously brought upon mass-euphoria.

The market has more-or-less been in a continual state of euphoria recently having been saved (by something), for the 83'rd time in the last 63 days.

Today's euphoria is about falling yields on Italian government debt. The yield on 10-Year Italian bonds is down 44 basis points to 6.45%. The yield on 2-year government bonds is down a whopping 70 basis points to 5.70%.

Is this another 6-Sigma event? I will get back to that in a moment, but first consider a few charts.

Italy 2-Year Government Bonds



Spain 2-Year Government Bonds



France 2-Year Government Bonds




While the Italian elephant took a big whack, the Spanish mole did not. France, an even bigger elephant than Italy, barely budged in relation to the huge recent surge in yields.

This should give notice that the rise in French yields cannot be blamed on the huge gaff by the S&P, accidentally sending out a notice of a rating change lower on France (that the S&P immediately took back).

The irony is the S&P should cut the rating of France.

Reflections on 6-Sigma Events

In my article France, the New Elephant in the Room I stated ... "The two-day move in French bond yields vs. German is likely a 6-sigma event. Today alone, the 2-year yield rose 27 basis points vs. 2 for Germany."

Almost

One inquiring mind intrigued by the idea, sent in the following charts with the comment "no credit required. It was your idea: I just put it into my Bloomberg. Love your site."

2-Year Bonds France vs. Germany



click on chart for sharper image

10-Year Bonds France vs. Germany



click on chart for sharper image

As shown in the upper-right of each chart with a label of "Off Avg StDev" the first chart depicts a 5.79 sigma event, the second a 5.92 sigma event.

6-Sigma Events

Financial Risk Manager has this explanation of 6-Sigma Events.
A six sigma event assumes a 99.99996 % probability of occurrence. For a daily horizon this translates into one event happening once every 2,500,000 days.

All the recent market slumps i.e. '87 Crash, Mexican Tequila effect, Russian Devaluation, Asian Crisis and Internet speculative bubble, .. have all been six sigma events and they've all happened in the past two decades.

That such event happen far more frequently than expected says that assumptions of financial models simply are not correct.

S&P 500 Futures 10-Minute Chart



I expect that gap to fill sooner rather than later as whack-a-more euphoria wears off.

Don't worry, there is no reason to expect the current trend of 83 euphoric events in 63 days will end any time soon.

On the other hand, don't expect any of these euphoric events and announcements from Borgs will accomplish anything.

Finally, do expect more 6-sigma events, with increasing frequency, in spite of what the odds suggests. Borg technocrats and EMU bureaucrats will make sure of that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


We Must Crush Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Nouriel Roubini, Martin Wolf, the Army of Krugmanites into Submission; Reflections on "Dangerous and Insane"

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 12:15 AM PST

Two days ago, Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf made an attempt at Thinking through the unthinkable. The "unthinkable" was the breakup of the Eurozone.

Reflections on the Easily Thinkable

For starters, a eurozone breakup is hardly unthinkable given that no currency union in history has ever survived in the absence of a fiscal union, and the Eurozone has no such fiscal union.

I suppose one might not want to think about history while praying for a miracle union, but the German Supreme court gratefully put a kibosh to the bureaucratic nanny-zone of never-ending regulation with a definitive ruling that no more German taxpayer funds can be out at risk without a common voter referendum.

Please see Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers for details.

I do not want to dwell on the "easily-thinkable unthinkable", I want to focus on poor economic theory within Wolf's post in regards to proposed solutions to the crisis.

Four Proposed Solutions

Wolf quoted Nouriel Roubini's proposed list of solution.

  1. Restoration of growth and competitiveness through aggressive monetary easing, a weaker euro and stimulatory policies in the core, while the periphery undertakes austerity and reform.
  2. A deflationary adjustment in the periphery alone, together with structural reforms, to force down nominal wages
  3. Permanent financing by the core of an uncompetitive periphery
  4. Widespread debt restructuring and partial break-up of the eurozone

Wolf points out that option 2 will morph into option 4. I concur while pointing out that is the path we are on, also in agreement with Wolf.

Wolf points out that German would veto option 3 but fails to point out the absolute silliness of the idea in the first place, which I will get to in a moment.

Option 4 is where we are headed, and the debate ought to be how to do that correctly instead of how to achieve the impossible option 1 which Germany would also veto.

I propose, as has Michael Pettis before me, that the best solution is to have Germany exit the Eurozone rather than Greece, then, Portugal, then Spain exit in succession.

Breakup Inevitable but How?

Here is a snip from France, Germany have "Intense Consultations" on Smaller Eurozone; Breakup Inevitable, but How?
Realization the Eurozone is no longer tenable is at long last at hand. In fact, "intense discussions" have been underway for months but are just now admitted to by senior EU officials. ....

The Eurozone is a failed experiment. A breakup is inevitable just as it has been from the beginning. Structural flaws were too great, built up over the years. No currency union in history has ever survived unless there was also a fiscal union.

The key question now is how?

It would be best for all involved if Germany left the Eurozone and went back to the Deutschmark. Germany would have an immediately credible currency. Should Greece or Spain leave first, those countries might experience hyperinflation or massive inflation.

Breakup Scenarios and Logistics of Denial

It's important to remember that Germany suffers regardless. As long as the Eurozone stays intact (it can't and won't over the long haul) German taxpayers have to keep acting bailing out foreign countries, foreign banks, and their own banks.

On the other hand, were Germany to leave, the debts to German banks will not be paid back in Deutschmarks but rather deflated Euros.

On the whole, Germany exiting the Eurozone would be less disruptive, than massive inflation scenarios in Greece, Portugal, and Spain.

If France wants to stay in the Euro, let them. They can have the ECB as well. Then the ECB will print money to bail out the French banks (just as French president Sarkozy wants).
Logistics of Denial

Micahel Pettis presented a more detailed discussion of various breakup scenarios as well as a discussion on the "Logistics of Denial", in my September 16 article Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied)

In his opening gambit, to the lead question "Will the eurozone survive?" Wolf surmises "I suspect the answer is, no."

Thus, it would be more helpful to debate the merits of "how" a breakup should happen, which countries should leave, and details on how that happens rather than hoping it won't.

Unfortunately, Wolf pines near his conclusion "[we] must go back to the first on the menu of options laid out by Mr Roubini. Potentially solvent countries would be financed and the eurozone would grow its way out of the crisis."

History and Common Sense

As noted earlier, unless there is a complete fiscal-nanny-zone with a one size fits all policy, option 1 cannot possibly work.

Germany would veto option 1, for solid reasons. Moreover, and more importantly, option 1 would not work anyway for the same reason option 3 cannot work: Printing money never solves anything.

How many times does this have to be proven before it sinks in?

Japan offered mammoth quantities of fiscal and monetary stimulus and all it has to show for it is debt in excess of 200% of GDP. Economist Richard Koo pines the lesson was Japan did not do enough stimulus. Sheeesh.

Cash-for-clunkers, multiple tax credits for housing, QE 1, QE 2, a trillion in fiscal stimulus and a myriad of other fiscally insane programs did not create jobs or a lasting recovery.

No amount of stimulus would work because the problem is debt. Yet, the Army of Krugmanites propose we need to do more.

Greenspan resorted to loose monetary policy and it created the biggest housing bubble the world has ever seen.

Now Cristina Romer proposes GDP targets by the Fed to which I responded in Dear Christina ... in light of the facts I presented above in regards to the experiences of Japan, the excess reserves at the Fed, the increase in inflation with no increase in jobs, and the number of people on fixed income destroyed by the rise in price level while getting 0% on their CDs, you have a hell of a lot more explaining why "It's different this Time".

For starters the Fed does not control GDP so the suggestion in and of itself is blatantly idiotic. The Fed can encourage spending but cannot force it. A trillion dollar mountain of excess reserves of banks is proof enough, yet the Monetarists want more.

No matter how much money one throws at a problem it is never enough. We had a housing bubble followed by a crash. Throw enough money around and we will have another bubble and a bigger crash, or simply a massive debt problem from which there is no escape.

The average eighth-grader can easily understand this. The average economist cannot because they are so tied up in monetary theory that has no real world application.

In September, Bernanke himself said he was puzzled by weak consumer spending.

Bernanke is puzzled over something an eighth-grader can easily figure out. Consumers have a mountain of debt and are underwater in their mortgages. Debt is made worse by declining real wages, global wage arbitrage, and a dearth of jobs.

ZIRP did nothing to create jobs but it did affect food and gas prices and effectively destroyed anyone on fixed income.

I would think that should be obvious, but obviously it's not because Bernanke is puzzled over it. This is what happens when academics become addicted to economic models that do not work in periods of debt deflation (assuming they ever worked at all).

Original Sin

Krugman is a big believer in the idea "debt does not matter". He made the mistake of using Italy as the prime example. Oops!

Guess what? Debt matters. Now Krugman is attempting to pass off a foolish statement by blaming Original Sin for the Euro Crisis.
One question that keeps coming up is, how can I reconcile my scorn for warnings about bond vigilantes with what is happening to Italy? This seems especially pointed because I have in the past used Italy's ability to carry debt exceeding its GDP as an illustration that debt concerns were overblown.

The answer lies in the concept of original sin. Not the Pope's kind, but the economics kind — the long-standing notion that developing countries were especially vulnerable to financial crises because they borrowed in foreign currency.

The key point is that by joining the euro, Italy took a bite of the apple — it converted its advanced-country status, as a nation issuing debt in its own currency, into original sin, with debts in someone else's currency (Europe's in principle, Germany's in practice). That is the root of its new vulnerability.
Krugman finishes with "More on all this later, I hope."

I hope so too, starting with my questions

  • When did you realize Italy gave up the Lira?
  • Did you not understand Italy was on the Euro when you used it as an example?
  • Are you looking for excuses after the fact?

Krugman Joins the Euro Cannot Work Parade

For all Krugman's pissing and moaning about imposed austerity measures on Europe, he now has the gall to blame the mess in Italy on "Original Sin" (which I might add also applies to Greece, Portugal, and Spain).

Oh well, it's a start. Perhaps we can get Krugman discussing the best way to break up the Eurozone instead of everyone pretending Roubini Option 1 is still in play.

As an aside, if Krugman turns to Japan for his "debt does not matter" model, he will be wrong again.

Two Things We Can Say for Certain

  1. Japan's Debt Does Not Matter Now
  2. It Will, and in a Major Way (we just do not know when, as with Italy)

All it takes to crush Japan is rising interest rates or a collapse in its export model. Given the cyclical nature of a great many things, one or the other or both will. And when it does, Japan will not be able to get financing.

Debt matters when it matters, and it eventually will. Until it does, we have to put up with foolish statements from major economists that it doesn't, followed by excuses when they are proven wrong.

America and China must crush Germany into submission

Wolf's article was hard enough to take but it was followed by an even more preposterous article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

Please consider America and China must crush Germany into submission
As we watch Italy's 10-year bond yields near 7.5pc and threaten to detonate the explosive charge on €1.9 trillion of debt, it is time for the world to reimpose order.

Yes, this means mobilizing the full-firepower of the ECB – with a pledge to change EU Treaty law and the bank's mandate – and perhaps some form of quantum leap towards a fiscal and debt union.

The EU Project has become both dangerous and insane.
Reflections on "Dangerous and Insane"

  • What's dangerous and insane is economists like Prichard demanding treaties be tossed to the wind to test poorly thought out economic ideas.

  • What's dangerous and insane is economic theory that says printing presses are the answer. It has never worked in history and will not work now.

  • What's dangerous and insane is more leverage. Didn't Lehman and LTCM prove that? How many more times do we have to prove that before it sinks in?

  • What's dangerous and insane is the idea is that central banks can impose their will on the world.

  • What's dangerous and insane is doing the same damn thing over and over and over again hoping for a different result

  • What's dangerous and insane is the moral hazard policy of time-and-time-again forcing the 99% to bail out the 1%.

The world will not end if banks fail. Forcing the 1% (banks and bank bondholders) to take a hit will not cause the world to end either, nor will it cause lending to cease.

Please, let's stop the blatant hyperbole that suggests otherwise.

The ECB could have and should have let Greece default. "We Say No To Default" said a dangerously arrogant ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet.

Trichet loaded up the ECB balance sheet with Greek debt against the advice of Axel Weber. Trichet's move blew up in his face, and I for one am glad to see it. If only he would have learned something from it.

The hubris of central bank wizards and economists is dangerous and insane. Indeed it is central bank wizardry combined with fractional reserve lending and insane levels of government bureaucracy that is at the root of the problem.

Corruption, Bloated Bureaucracy, Poor Productivity

My advice for Pritchard would be to stop writing dangerously insane ideas and start reading fellow columnist Nick Squires who has the common sense to write Italy's debt crisis: doomed by corruption, bloated bureaucracy and poor productivity

Insane Welfare System

I would also recommend Pritchard, Krugman, and Wolf read Eight Reasons Why Italy Is Such a Mess
Wacky Welfare System

The root of Italy's problems, the Wall Street Journal argues today, is that the country "financed generous entitlements with high taxes and towering piles of debt," and now finds the money running out as the economy sputters. Indeed, Italy has more pensioners than workers and currently spends about 14 percent of GDP on pensions -- more than any other country in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Silvio Berlusconi pledged to raise the retirement age in Italy to 67 as part of his raft of austerity measures, but it's a controversial move. In late October, two Italian lawmakers exchanged blows in parliament during a debate about whether to revamp the country's pension system. House Speaker Gianfranco Fini had noted on television that the wife of the Northern League's Umberto Bossi had taken early retirement at 39 and cashed in on Italy's generous benefits.

Public Union Pension Woes

Bear in mind that is just one of the eight reasons Foreign Policy Magazine mentioned. The author called the pension system "wacky". I call it fiscally insane.

Italy currently has more pensioners than workers. Is that insane or what?

In light of the above, can someone, anyone explain how Roubini's option number 3 "Permanent financing by the core of an uncompetitive periphery" can possibly work?

By the way, the same public union pension problem exists in the US and it is the cause behind massive state and city deficits. Our system will blow up as well, just give it time.

Instead of focusing on those problems (and for the US I propose scrapping Davis Bacon, ending all prevailing wage laws, and ending collective bargaining for public unions) Krugman wants more freaking fiscal stimulus.

Quite frankly, it's insane. Want a compromise? Give me those three things and I will even take higher taxes.

Exceptionally Sound Advice

My friend Pater Tenebrarum offers exceptionally sound advice in The 'Technocrats' Are Coming
What's the EU All About?

"One keeps hearing demands for more centralization – tax 'harmonization', which is new-speak for 'let's impose the highest possible taxes everywhere', more 'redistribution', and above all, 'more regulation', especially of the evil financial markets where all sorts of bad things are happening to sovereign bonds nowadays.

Naturally, fractional reserve banking and the inflationary boom-bust sequences it has brought forth doesn't even rate a mention – since it has also enabled the growth of this huge statist moloch the EU and many of its member nations have become.

What is really needed is some introspection and remembering what the EU was originally about. Its founders wanted to restore 19th century liberalism to Europe – free trade and freedom of movement for people and capital within Europe.

They emphatically did not want to erect some sort of socialist super-state. They wanted to bring back to Europe what the mad socialist and fascist ideologues of the 20th century had destroyed.


Now we have a bureaucratic monster in Brussels that has produced nearly 300,000 new regulations over the past decade, in addition to the hundreds of thousands of pages of 'administrative law' and other regulations the member states themselves produce every year.

It is a miracle we still have a functioning civilization.

If we want the problems to be solved, the most important question should be: what is needed to enable the production of new wealth? What kind of environment will be most conducive to reviving the entrepreneurial spirit? It should be simple enough, but it would of course threaten a great many vested interests."
Crush Into Submission

You cannot fix a problem unless you understand it. Moreover, even if you do understand the problem, you cannot fit it with unsound theory.

The discussion from Wolf, Pritchard, Roubini, Romer, the vast army of Krugmanites, and the smaller army of equally misguided Monetarists suggests they do not fully understand the problem, nor do they understand sound economic theory as to what it takes to fix it.

To use Pritchard's catchy title, I respond "We Must Crush Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Nouriel Roubini, Martin Wolf, the Army of Krugmanites into Submission."

That is the mission, and it is a desperately needed mission at that. To accomplish the mission we must prove to the group, to their satisfaction, their solutions are nonsensical.

Unfortunately, the only way I can think of doing that is to give the group everything it wants, then watch it blow sky high. That means turn on the global printing presses, bail out the public pension plans, pour more money into Medicare and Medicaid, create a "living wage" indexed to inflation, give Krugman his tariffs, and declare China a currency manipulator. Not enough jobs? No problem, the government can easily create them. That's what the vast army of Krugmanite Borgs thinks.

There is only one problem with the idea. When the plan blows sky high, Krugman would say "It wasn't enough".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Canvas Hotel in Norway

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 01:07 PM PST

If in Norway, Nissedal i Telemark, be sure to stay at the Canvas hotel. If you like mountain biking, outdoor baths and stunning scenery this is the place for you!

Canvas Hotel consists of 10 Mongolian yurts that form a yard around a kitchen and dining area. Each yurt is equipped with a wood-burning stove, sleeping place and bathtub.








































The Smartphone: A Must-Have for Every Modern Mom [Infographic]

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 10:48 AM PST



Just 15 years ago cell phones were rare, 3x as big and didn't do nearly as many cool things. We used our phones just to talk. These days though, more and more people are getting better and faster technology to help them keep up with their busy lives and families. It is easy to see why the Modern Mom is depending more and more on her smartphone.


Source: life360


Internet Meme Mashup Medley By Gag Quartet

Posted: 10 Nov 2011 11:43 PM PST



From Leekspin to Trololol to Nyan Cat, The GAG Quartet mash up over 40 musical Internet Memes into one amazing medley. This is how a nerdy meme overload is done the right way.


Thirteen Movie Poster Trends That Are Here To Stay

Posted: 10 Nov 2011 11:27 PM PST

I can't help but notice how so many posters for various films look alike. If you think Hollywood is running out of ideas for screenplays, than you should see how desperate they are when creating posters. Christophe Courtois recently produced a fun article displaying thirteen movie poster trends that are here to stay, and what they say about their movies.

1. Tiny People On the Beach, Giant Heads in the Clouds


2. Sexy Back (Most Likely to Contain Weaponry)


3. Back to Back


4. The Bed


5. I've Got My Eye On You


6. Nature is Blue


7. Black/Orange


8. Run For Your Life


9. Legs Wide Spread


10. Is That Your Face Or Are the Drugs Kicking In?


11. The Red Dress Never Goes Out of Fashion


12. The Rip-Off


13. Text In Your Face