Central Perk

joi, 7 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Czech Republic Enters Currency Debasement Club; Koruna Intervention Triggers Record Drop; "Hardball" in Pictures
Euro Swings Significantly, Gold Dips Following ECB Rate Cut Announcement; US Tapering Coming Up?
ECB Unexpectedly Cuts Rate to .25%; Draghi Promises Loose Policy for "Extended Period", "Ready to Consider All Instruments"; What Debasement is Next?

Czech Republic Enters Currency Debasement Club; Koruna Intervention Triggers Record Drop; "Hardball" in Pictures

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 05:23 PM PST

Currency madness has spread to the Czech Republic. Central bank intervention triggered a record plunge in the Koruna vs. the Euro.

Bloomberg reports Czechs Play Koruna Hardball as Intervention Triggers Record Drop

The Czech central bank's return to currency interventions after 11 years heralds a push for a weaker koruna to ward off deflation and kick-start the economy.

The koruna plunged 4.4 percent to 26.982 against the euro yesterday, its biggest-ever drop and the most in the world on the day, after the central bank sold the currency in the foreign-exchange market. Governor Miroslav Singer pledged to keep intervening "for as long as needed" to spur inflation, setting a target of "near" 27 per euro, a level the koruna last traded at in 2009.

"The central bank signaled willingness to play hardball in its foreign-exchange policy," Luis Costa, an emerging-market strategist at Citigroup Inc., said by e-mail from London. "For the moment, I believe the 'ideal level of 27' will be met."

Unlike interventions aimed at strengthening the exchange rate, which require sales of foreign currencies that can deplete foreign reserves, the Czech central bank is printing more koruna to drive down its value. The money supply increase may lead to the higher inflation rates that Singer is pursuing.

"The power is unlimited," Guillaume Tresca, a Paris-based strategist at Credit Agricole SA, wrote by e-mail yesterday. "They can theoretically print as much koruna as they want."

Hardball in Pictures - Koruna vs. Euro

It seems the "ideal" level of 27 was reached in a day. Of course it is preposterous to propose that anyone, especially central banks have any notion of what the "ideal" level is.

From a consumer standpoint, the more European goods Czech citizens can buy with the Koruna the better. But central banks will have none of that.

About That Eurozone Entry

Wikipedia comments on the Czech Republic Plans to Join the Eurozone.

The Czech Republic planned to adopt the euro in 2012, but its government suspended that plan in 2007. Although the country is economically well positioned to adopt the euro, there is considerable opposition to the move within the Czech Republic. According to a survey conducted in January 2011, only 22% of the Czech population was in favour of replacing the koruna with euro.

One alleged disadvantage of joining the eurozone is giving up the ability to do what the Czech Republic just did.

Of course the ECB is on its own currency debasement mission vs. the US dollar and Japanese Yen as noted in ECB Unexpectedly Cuts Rate to .25%; Draghi Promises Loose Policy for "Extended Period", "Ready to Consider All Instruments"; What Debasement is Next?

Where Does It End?

For years, I have been asking supporters of these competitive currency debasement schemes "where does it end"?

The euro monetarists want a weaker euro vs. the dollar, the yen, and the koruna.
The koruna monetarists want a weaker koruna vs. the euro, the dollar and the yen.
The dollar monetarists don't much care about the euro, but they do want a lower dollar vs. the euro and the yen.

Recently, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph proposed the ECB devalue the Euro to support growth and end deflation.

For further details, please consider Lunatic Howls for Competitive QE Debasement; Another Swan Dive Into Cesspool of Economic Silliness; Following Lemmings Over The Cliff; It's Madness!

How the hell can competitive devaluation work, when every country can "theoretically print as much currency as it wants" and every country wants a declining currency vs. every other currency to support growth?

Ambrose, I am still waiting for the answer to that question.

Given that Ambrose (and every other misguided monetarist on the planet) proposes a mathematical impossibility, I may be waiting for a long time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Euro Swings Significantly, Gold Dips Following ECB Rate Cut Announcement; US Tapering Coming Up?

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 10:41 AM PST

Here is a 10-minute Euro chart that shows wild swings following the Unexpected ECB Decision to lower rates today.

10-minute Euro Chart

The Euro swung 2 cents vs. the US dollar but has now regained about half of the move.On a percentage basis, these are substantial swings.

10-minute Gold Chart

Charts from Barchart.

Gold fell about $30 following the ECB announcement and has taken back about a third of the decline.

US Tapering Coming Up?

Is competitive currency debasement bad for gold? It shouldn't be.

Likely, this is more of an over-reaction to the still-lingering belief that the Fed is going to taper.

How likely is that? Not very according to Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum in her article today A GDP Report in Search of Liftoff

While real GDP increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, inventories accounted for almost a third of the growth. Consumer spending added 1 percentage point and net exports 0.3 percentage point. Real final sales, which is GDP less inventories, rose 2 percent, close to the trend since the recession ended in June 2009. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which excludes exports and includes imports, rose a meager 1.7 percent.

So there you have it. Almost five years of zero-percent interest rates, about $3 trillion of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve and lots of forward guidance on both, and the U.S. economy still can't get out of its own way. Whatever else the Fed decides, tapering asset purchases isn't in the cards any time soon.

Should vs. Will are Horses of a Different Color

Given the huge asset bubbles in equities and corporate bonds, the Fed ought to be tapering now. Then again, given that repetitive bubble blowing never makes any sense, the Fed should never have launched three rounds of QE in the first place.

But what the Fed "should" do and what the Fed "will" do are horses of a different color. Baum is highly likely correct in her assertion "tapering asset purchases isn't in the cards any time soon."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Unexpectedly Cuts Rate to .25%; Draghi Promises Loose Policy for "Extended Period", "Ready to Consider All Instruments"; What Debasement is Next?

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 09:22 AM PST

The ECB did the unexpected today, cutting the interest rate to .25% from .50%.
Here is the ECB press release.

7 November 2013 - Monetary policy decisions

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 25 basis points to 0.25%, starting from the operation to be settled on 13 November 2013.

The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 25 basis points to 0.75%, with effect from 13 November 2013.

The interest rate on the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%.

News Conference Text

Bloomberg has the ECB President Draghi News Conference Text.
Here are a few key snips.

We decided to lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem by 25 basis points to 0.25 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent. The rate on the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00 percent.
Our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary.
The Governing Council expects key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation continues to be based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy and subdued monetary dynamics.
We are ready to consider all available instruments, and, in this context, we decided today to continue conducting the main refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the 6th maintenance period of 2015, more precisely on July 7, 2015.
The Eurosystem's special-term refinancing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period will continue to be conducted for as long as needed, and at least until the end of the second quarter of 2015. The fixed rate in these special-term refinancing operations will be the same as the MRO [main refinancing operation] rate prevailing at the time.
We decided to conduct the three-month longer-term refinancing operations, the LTROs, to be allotted until the end of the second quarter of 2015 as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment. The rates in these three-month operations will be fixed at the average rate of the MROs over the life of the respective LTRO.
The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. Developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include higher commodity prices, weaker than expected domestic demand and export growth, and -- and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.

What Debasement is Next?

It could be anything. Here is the key sentence: "We are ready to consider all available instruments, and, in this context, we decided today to continue conducting the main refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the 6th maintenance period of 2015, more precisely on July 7, 2015."

The currency cranks calling for more debasement got their wish today. But given the ECB did not do everything at once, and is only "ready to consider all available instruments", I doubt the cranks will be satisfied.

For further discussion, please see Lunatic Howls for Competitive QE Debasement; Another Swan Dive Into Cesspool of Economic Silliness; Following Lemmings Over The Cliff; It's Madness!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Ultimate Martial Arts Fails Compilation 2013 [Video]
Mexican Drug Cartel Members on Facebook
The Most Gruesome Wedding Cake Ever
Dazzling Blue | The Pantone Color for Spring 2014 on the Runways [Infographic]

Ultimate Martial Arts Fails Compilation 2013 [Video]

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 05:16 PM PST

This video is three and a half minutes of reasons why I don't do martial arts. Although, I don't think martial arts itself is to blame…

Mexican Drug Cartel Members on Facebook

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 01:05 PM PST

Mexican drug cartel members are posting on Facebook selfies and photos of the drugs, guns and cash.

The Most Gruesome Wedding Cake Ever

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 11:16 AM PST

David and Natalie Sideserf wanted a non-traditional wedding cake.

Natalie operates a specialty cake shop called Sidesurf Cake Studio in Texas so the sky was the limit.

They went with a "Till death do us part" theme and as you can see, somebody is taking those words pretty seriously.

Dazzling Blue | The Pantone Color for Spring 2014 on the Runways [Infographic]

Posted: 07 Nov 2013 10:31 AM PST

As soon as Pantone announced the new color for the 2014 spring will be the vibrant Dazzling Blue, several designers fell in love with it and now you can see it in every runway across the world.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via: fashiongonerogue.com

President Obama: "Nothing Is Going to Stop Us From Getting This Done"

Featured

President Obama: "Nothing Is Going to Stop Us From Getting This Done"

On Wednesday, the President traveled to Dallas, Texas, where he joined canvassers and navigators who are part of the community's most active group of volunteers working to enroll their neighbors in quality, affordable coverage through the Marketplace.

President Barack Obama delivers remarks at an Affordable Care Act event at Temple Emanu-El in Dallas, Texas, Nov. 6, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Must-Have Social Media Meta Tag Templates for Improved Sharing and SEO

Posted: 06 Nov 2013 03:01 PM PST

Posted by Cyrus-Shepard

At Moz, we strive to include social media metadata in all new pieces of content that we publish. This allows us to optimize for sharing Twitter, Facebook, Google+ and Pinerest by defining exactly how titles, descriptions, images and more appear in social streams.

Think of it as conversion rate optimization for social exposure.

The implications for SEO are also significant. We know from experience and studies that the right data, including optimized images, helps content to spread, which often leads to increased links and mentions. We also know from correlation studies that content with higher social metrics exhibits many of the same qualities as content that performs well in search results.

Knowing exactly which social meta tags to include can be confusing even to experienced webmasters. This post by Micheal King is a huge help, and Wordpress publishers who use Yoast's SEO plugin are well ahead of the game.

For the rest of us, consider the different structures supported by the major social platforms:

Twitter Cards: Summaries, Images, Galleries, Apps, Video, Audio, and Products
Pinterest Rich Pins: Products, Recipes, Movies, and Articles
Google+: Articles, Blog, Book, Event, Local Business, Organization, Person, Product, and Reviews
Facebook: Articles, Photos, Audio, Video, and more

To help ease this problem, I created four social media tag templates that you can fill out, customize for your own use, and share with your team and others.

How to use these templates

Simply copy and paste the template into the text editor of your choice. Make sure to replace any orange or green text with your own data, and customize, eliminate or add any tags you find necessary.

The first three of these templates are optimized using a typical "article" markup and data, ideal for blog posts and most written content. The final template contains markup for product pages.For other post types, such as book or recipes, refer to documentation linked at the end of this post for reference on what to customize.

When you are done, don't forget to test and apply for approval.

1. The Minimal Template

This slimmed back version runs lean and fast. It contains a bare minimum of data for optimized sharing across Twitter, Facebook, Google+ and Pinterest.

Title tags and meta descriptions are included even though they aren't technically social media meta tags. This is because they can be used by Google+ and other social media platforms, and it is best practice to include them on every page you publish.

Minimum Social Media Tag Template: Article

<title>Page Title. Maximum length 60-70 characters</title>
<meta name="description" content="Page description. No longer than 155 characters." />

<meta name="twitter:card" value="summary">

2: The Standard Template

The standard template represents a more robust implementation of social tags and is meant to work across all platforms. In addition to all of the features of the mimimal template above, the standard template includes the following:

The basic Twitter Summary card
Twitter thumbnail image
Facebook Page Insights

Standard Social Media Tag Template: Article

<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary">
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@publisher_handle">
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Page Title">
<meta name="twitter:description" content="Page description less than 200 characters">
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@author_handle">
<-- Twitter Summary card images must be at least 200x200px -->
<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://www.example.com/image.jpg">

3: The Full Monty

This is the monster! In addition to all the data contained in the standard template, the full template contains:

Google Authorship and Publisher Markup. Although this data doesn't change your content appearance in Google+, it potentially add links to your Google+ pages in search results.
Schema.org article markup
Twitter Summary card with large image
Expanded Open Graph article data

Full Social Media Tag Template: Article

<html itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article">

<link rel="author" href="https://plus.google.com/[Google+_Profile]/posts"/>
<link rel="publisher" href=â€https://plus.google.com/[Google+_Page_Profile]"/>

<meta itemprop="name" content="The Name or Title Here">
<meta itemprop="description" content="This is the page description">
<meta itemprop="image" content="http://www.example.com/image.jpg">

<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@publisher_handle">
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Page Title">
<meta name="twitter:description" content="Page description less than 200 characters">
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@author_handle">

<meta name="twitter:image:src" content="http://www.example.com/image.html">

<meta property="og:title" content="Title Here" />
<meta property="og:type" content="article" />
<meta property="og:url" content="http://www.example.com/" />
<meta property="og:image" content="http://example.com/image.jpg" />
<meta property="og:description" content="Description Here" />
<meta property="og:site_name" content="Site Name, i.e. Moz" />
<meta property="article:published_time" content="2013-09-17T05:59:00+01:00" />
<meta property="article:modified_time" content="2013-09-16T19:08:47+01:00" />
<meta property="article:section" content="Article Section" />
<meta property="article:tag" content="Article Tag" />
<meta property="fb:admins" content="Facebook numberic ID" />

Bonus: The Product Template

For merchants, product markup is very popular, and usually easy for developers to implement in their shopping cart software. The product template differs from article markup in only a few ways:

Modified <html> tag to reflect schema.org product data
Twitter Product Card includes required data labels
Open Graph data includes price and currency data

Product Social Media Tag Template

<html itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Product">

<meta name="twitter:card" content="product">
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@publisher_handle">
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Page Title">
<meta name="twitter:description" content="Page description less than 200 characters">
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@author_handle">
<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://www.example.com/image.html">
<meta name="twitter:data1" content="$3">
<meta name="twitter:label1" content="Price">
<meta name="twitter:data2" content="Black">
<meta name="twitter:label2" content="Color">

Tools for testing and approval

A. Twitter Validation Tool

https://dev.twitter.com/docs/cards/validation/validator

Before your cards show on Twitter, you must first have your domain approved. Fortunately, it's a super-easy process. After you implement your cards, simply enter your sample URL into the validation tool. After checking your markup, select the "Submit for Approval" button.

B. Facebook Debugger

https://developers.facebook.com/tools/debug

You don't need prior approval for your meta information to show on Facebook, but the debugging tool they offer gives you a wealth of information about all your tags and can also analyze your Twitter tags.

C. Google Structured Data Testing Tool

http://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/richsnippets

Webmasters traditionally use the structured data testing tool to test authorship markup and preview how snippets will appear in search results, but you can also use see what other types of meta data Google is able to extract from each page.

D. Pinterest Rich Pins Validator

http://developers.pinterest.com/rich_pins/validator/

Like Twitter, Pinterest requires an approval process to enable Rich Pin functionality. Use the Rich Pin Validator tool to test your data markup and apply for approval at the same time.

Tips and best practices

Optimizing for images

The image you link to in your social data does not actually have to be on the page, but it should represent your content well. The image allows you to controll what people see when they share your content, so it's important to use quality images.

Every social platform has different standards for sizing. Typically, it's easier to keep it simple and choose one image size that will work for all services.

Twitter thumbnail: 120x120px
Twitter large image: 280x150px
Facebook: Standards vary, but an image at least 200x200px works best. Facebook recommends large images up to 1200px wide.

In short, larger images offer you the most flexibility. When in doubt, test each page using the appropriate tool below to see exactly how your images will appear in snippits.

The importance of Open Graph data

If you could choose only one type of meta data to include, your best bet is Open Graph. That's because all the platforms can use it as a fallback, including Twitter to a large degree.

Facebook page insights

The meta property "fb:admins" requires that you enter your numeric Facebook id number, and gives you access to analytics about how your website content is shared on Facebook. Read more about Page Insights, including how to set it up and discover your numeric id.

Further resources

Use these templates as a starting point, but you can customize them in millions of ways. A few valuable resources to aid your journey:

What are your best tips for optimizing your content for sharing? Let us know in the comments below.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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joi, 7 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

President Obama: "Nothing Is Going to Stop Us From Getting This Done"

Must-Have Social Media Meta Tag Templates for Improved Sharing and SEO

Must-Have Social Media Meta Tag Templates for Improved Sharing and SEO

How to use these templates

1. The Minimal Template

Minimum Social Media Tag Template: Article

2: The Standard Template

Standard Social Media Tag Template: Article