miercuri, 15 ianuarie 2014

Magic Johnson on Getting Covered: "It Saved My Life"

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Watch Live

Today at 1:40 p.m. ET, President Obama will deliver remarks on the economy at North Carolina State University. Click here to watch on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

 

 
 
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Magic Johnson on Getting Covered: "It Saved My Life"

No matter how old you are or what your profession is, an injury or illness could happen to anyone at any time. Watch Magic Johnson talk about what having quality health care has meant to him.

See why Magic thinks you should get covered.

Magic Johnson on Getting Covered: "It Saved My Life"

 

 

  Top Stories

President Obama Welcomes the 2013 NBA Champions the Miami Heat

Yesterday, President Obama welcomed the Miami Heat back to the White House to honor the team for winning their second-straight championship title.

READ MORE

President Obama Holds the First Cabinet Meeting of 2014

At the first Cabinet meeting of 2014, President Obama said this is going to be a year of action on important issues, including extending emergency unemployment insurance and passing legislation to reform our immigration system.

READ MORE

Wide Bandgap Semiconductors: Essential to Our Technology Future

Today, President Obama will announce that North Carolina State University will lead the Energy Department’s new manufacturing innovation institute for the next generation of power electronics. The institute will work to drive down the costs of and build America’s manufacturing leadership in wide bandgap (WBG) semiconductor-based power electronics -- leading to more affordable products for businesses and consumers, billions of dollars in energy savings and high-quality U.S. manufacturing jobs.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

9:25 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

9:55 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews

11:10 AM: The President arrives in Raleigh, North Carolina

11:35 AM: The President tours Vacon

1:05 PM: The President delivers remarks at North Carolina State University WATCH LIVE

2:05 PM: The President departs Raleigh, North Carolina

3:05 PM: The President arrives at Joint Base Andrews

3:15 PM: The President arrives at the White House

3:40 PM: The President makes a personnel announcement

5:00 PM: The President meets with the Senate Democratic Caucus


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Seth's Blog : The buffet problem keeps getting worse

 

The buffet problem keeps getting worse

Here's the thinking that leads just about every all-you-can-eat buffet to trend to mediocrity:

"Oh, don't worry about how fresh the mashed potatoes are, after all, they're free."

Indeed, as far as the kitchen is concerned, each individual item on the buffet is 'free' in the sense that the customer didn't spend anything extra to get that item.

The problem is obvious, of course. Once you start thinking that way, then every single item on the buffet gets pretty lousy, and the next thing you know, the customers you seek don't come.

So, the hotel that says, "With this sort of volume... we do tend to encounter a slower pace with our free wireless internet," has completely misunderstood how to think about the free internet they offer. It's not free. In fact, it might be the one and only reason someone picked your $400 hotel room over that hotel down the street. Sure the hot water and the towels and the quiet room are all free in the sense that they're included in the price, but no, they're not free in the mind of the purchaser.

Successful organizations often beat the competition by turning the buffet problem upside down. "Let's make these the best mashed potatoes in town--who knows, next time, that guy out front will bring his friends."

The mashed potatoes aren't free, the mashed potatoes, the wifi and everything else you do are an opportunity. The cheapest and most effective marketing you'll do all year.

       

 

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marți, 14 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


When Will the Fed Hike Part II - Discussion of Debt Duration - Communication the Only Tool Left

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 11:25 AM PST

In response to When Will Interest on US National Debt Exceed $1 Trillion some readers objected stating "things are different now". I had to laugh at that.

Others stated that I ignored duration. I did, but I did post results at various interest rates, one of them optimistically assuming rates would stay at current levels.

For ease in discussion, here is the chart again, with my original "fed is in a box" claim. An analysis of "debt duration follows".

Projected Interest at Various Rates


Hidden Agenda

The current blended rate of interest on the national debt is a mere 2.4% according to the CBO.

The "optimistic" projection of $668 billion assumes the rate will stay below 3.1% through 2020.

Shifting Goalposts

Really think the Fed is going to hike? They know they can't, and the Fed is disingenuous as to why.

A year ago the Fed was discussing 6.5% as a trigger point.

In December, the Wall Street Journal noted the Fed's Shifting Unemployment Guideposts

Now, in the wake of a massive collapse in the labor force in which unemployment rate just dropped to 6.7% it's easy to understand why the goalposts shifted.

The Fed pretends its interest rate policy is about a dual mandate of jobs and GDP growth.

The above charts show the real reason for the shift: the Fed is in a box of its own making and it has no freaking idea how to get out of the box.
Duration Weighted Average

Reader "Paul" pointed me to the OMB Fiscal Year 2012 Q1 Report.

There are lots of interesting charts in the report, but especially note the chart on page 15, shown below (annotations in red are mine).



Duration is expected to rise from from about 67 months (5.58 years) to about 78 months (6.5 years).

Current Trends

According to Bloomberg, yields are rising sharply on the long end.



click on chart for sharper image

Yield on the 5-Year note is currently 1.59%. A year ago it was 0.78%. Yield on the 10-Year note is 2.83%. A year ago it was 1.87%.

Think the Fed can afford to let interest rates rise further?

I didn't and still don't.

Even though the average duration is now 5.5 years, The Fed Owns 40% Of All Treasuries Over 5 Years In Maturity.

According to Forbes (see above link), during 4 years of QE, QE1, QE2, and QE3, the Fed accumulated 36% of all Treasury securities between 5 years and 10 years in maturity plus 40% of those government bonds over 10 years in maturity, as well as 25% of all the mortgage backed securities not owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What's the Fed going to do now? Accumulate all the notes and bonds? While buying less of them? The math doesn't quite work does it?

Communication the Only "Tool" Left

The Fed hopes to stabilize rates via communication, hoping to convince everyone of three things

  1. The economy is strengthening
  2. Regardless of the strengthening economy, the Fed won't hike rates
  3. Long-term rates should not rise

Three Problems

  1. If the economy is strengthening, interest rates should rise
  2. If the economy is headed into a recession or even weakening, then equity prices and corporate bonds are grossly overpriced
  3. The Fed is not really in control

Exit Strategy

So what is the Fed's exit strategy?

The Fed really doesn't have one, and that is the reason for all this meaningless communication from various Fed governors (frequently in contradiction with each other).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Obama Promises the Pen of Executive Orders if Congress Does Not Act; Should Republicans Complain?

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 09:48 AM PST

Similar to a speech made last week in which French President Francois Hollande vowed to pass his agenda by executive order instead of parliamentary law, Obama warns Congress he will act alone.
President Barack Obama said Tuesday he was pleased Congress had passed a sweeping $1 trillion spending bill, but warned he would wield power alone if lawmakers blocked his policy plans.

Obama also called on Congress to act on his other priorities, including an extension of jobless insurance for the long-term unemployed and comprehensive immigration reform.

"We're not just going to wait for legislation," Obama said.

"I've got a pen and I've got a phone, I can use that pen to sign executive orders and take executive action and administrative actions that move the ball forward."

While Obama can use his authority to implement policy changes on issues ranging from immigration to climate change and other issues, he must pass laws through Congress to enact the kind of sweeping political change he envisages and to deploy the power of the public purse.
If Obama's threat sounds familiar it's because it is. Please consider, Hollande Wants to "Get Things Done" by Decree, Not by Passing Laws.

When Hollande made his statements I asked two questions.

  1. Was president Obama inspired by Hollande or was Hollande inspired by Obama?
  2. Why have parliament, or Congress, if this is the ways the legislative process works?

Should Republicans Complain?

Obama seriously sounds like a spoiled brat. "If you won't give me cake, I will have cake anyway".

No doubt, Republicans will complain strongly about the president's message.

I have a better idea: As long as this is the way the system works, then let's see some real hardball from Republicans the next time they are in office.

Turnaround is Fair Play

By decree, let's get rid of the National Labor Relations board. More importantly, since President Kennedy instituted collective bargaining of public unions by decree, let's undo collective bargaining by decree as well.

There is a massive amount of fertile ground for the kinds of decrees the country really needs, especially in regards to less government. If we can get less government via decree rather than Congressional bickering, I'm 100% in favor.

So rather than complain now, let's hope the next president, Rand Paul, carries the "executive order torch" to the fullest extent possible.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Ghetto Tattoos

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 11:35 AM PST















This Kid is a True Hero

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 10:17 AM PST

Expensive Things You Don't Need

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 10:04 AM PST























The Most Regrettable Tattoos Ever [INFOGRAPHIC]

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 09:26 AM PST

ave you ever regretted a tattoo? Take a look at this infographic put together by the folks at laseraway.net. Just remember if you ever want to get rid of any of your ink remember LaserAway is the nations largest laser tattoo removal company.

Click on Image to Enlarge.
Most Regrettable Tattoos
Courtesy of: LaserAway


Google Secrets You Need To See [Video]

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 09:18 AM PST



For a mammoth corporation, Google still keeps a legitimate sense of humor. Take a look at these seven sneaky Google hacks guaranteed to make you smile: