Central Perk

luni, 23 februarie 2015

BIPrecords just uploaded a video

BIPrecords has uploaded Mr. Jack & Dirty - Party (Official Music Video) (HQ) (HD)

Mr. Jack & Dirty - Party (Official Music Video) (HQ) (HD)

Mr. Jack & Dirty – Party
iTunes Downloadlink: https://itunes.apple.com/be/album/party-original-extended-mix/id969597321?l=nl

(P) & © 2015 BIP Records

Web: www.biprecords.com
Facebook: www.facebook.com/BIPRECORDS
Twitter: @BIPRECORDS

Seth's Blog : "Leap First" is now available

"Leap First" is now available

An original audio production* via Sounds True, with 100% of my royalties going to the Acumen Fund.

Find it right here: Leap First.

I just got this great note from Jason Connell. I hope the recording resonates with you as much as it did with him:

Wanted to let you know that I listened to Leap First over the past two days and love it. I am amazed by how you blended business, personal development, and spirituality into one fluid recording.

It did an amazing job of inspiring confidence, vision, and excitement about tackling... not just projects, but life and I plan to listen to it again soon.

Thank you for so generously sharing your insight. You could have charged far, far more for this.

Thanks to everyone who has listened, reviewed it and recommended it. I appreciate your support.

(*Producing this audio inspired my new book, Your Turn).

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Building Online Marketing Strategies for Small Businesses - Moz Blog

Building Online Marketing Strategies for Small Businesses

Posted on: Monday 23 February 2015 — 01:15

Posted by MorganChessman

Building marketing strategies for small businesses is one of my favorite things. In my first marketing role, I worked in the marketing department for a small company before moving on to Distilled, where I've been lucky enough to continue working with small businesses that have enormous potential. Despite the various industries, locales, and personalities, one of the prevailing similarities between them is that small businesses often don't position their company or use the web as effectively as they could. While this is partially due to the time and resource crunch small business owners feel, it's also because, beyond building a website, they don't know where to begin.

It doesn't have to be so overwhelming though. I'll walk you through the preliminary steps I take my small business clients through.

1. Define the brand

A number of the small companies I've worked with didn't have a brand. That's not to say that they didn't have a name, a website, and a logo. It's that they didn't stand for something.

For example, what comes to mind when you think of Apple? Innovative and well-designed products? Exactly. So many small businesses are built from an individual wanting to work for themselves or because they see an opportunity to improve on an existing product. They figure, build the website and they will come.

But it's not that way. You need a brand. As we've seen throughout history, the companies that have staying power have a brand, something that differentiates them from their competitors, something that people connect with and, coupled with good products and customer service, something that keeps people coming back.

I'm sure you're thinking, "Well that's all fine and good, Morgan, but I don't know how you go about building a brand." That's fine. There are people who make careers out of building brands you could contact, market research surveys you could pass out, and focus groups you could run, but, realistically, small businesses don't usually have the financial resources to invest in these strategies. This doesn't mean you can't have a brand though; you'll just have to run a lightweight brand building exercise which goes something like this:

1. Think about your origin story

Ask yourself: "Why did I start this company? What am I proud of?" Oftentimes what drove you to start your own company and how it's reflected in your business practices is what makes you unique.

2. Talk to your customers

Ask your customers: "What do you like about our company? What don't you like? Why did you choose us over our competitors? What are your pain points?" When you listen to customers talk about your business, you'll have a better understanding of the aspects of your company that resonate with people and what should be reflected in your brand messaging.

3. Do competitor research

Take a look at your competitors' websites. Ask yourself: "What are they doing well? What aren't they doing well? How do they talk about their company?" You're looking for holes in your industry, a way to make your company different than your competitors.

4. Compile all information and develop a brand

Once you've researched your origin story, competitors' tactics, and customer sentiment, it's time to start building a brand. What from your origin story and customer conversations stood out and got you excited? How can you talk about those things in a way your competitors haven't? Once you have that figured out, you have a brand position.

Let's make this final step more concrete with an example. I worked with a tech consulting and recruiting firm that had a history of success in the immediate area, but was looking to attract people from the greater region as well as gain new client companies. In order to stand out from the other technical consulting firms and get people excited about working for them, we knew that they had to have more than a website that stated they were a consulting firm. They were going to have to develop a brand. We ran through the steps above with the following takeaways:

Origin Story: The owner started the company because he liked working with really competent developers, and realized that the best way to ensure he did so was to start his own company.
Customer Research: Customers preferred going with this particular company because the quality of work was always so high. People liked working for this company because there was always a lot of challenging work.
Competitor Research: The rest of the companies weren't run by people with technical backgrounds. This company was, though, and as a result was able to do more rigorous testing and find the best people.

The main theme here was that the company only hired the best (origin story), because they had the technical chops to know who the best were (competitor research), which meant that this company's employees did exceptional work (customer research), which in turn made sure they landed challenging contracts (customer research).

Due to this insight, we positioned the company as the elite option, heavily citing the fact that only 4% of people could pass the technical interview—to work for this company was to work with the best and that to hire them was to have the best working for you. This resonated well with both target audiences, and they saw a heightened brand awareness with both potential recruits and clients.

2. Review the website content and language

Although most small businesses have websites, it's necessary for owners to take a step back and review the website through the eyes of a consumer. Too often people assume that website visitors have a certain level of company knowledge, or that they speak the same jargon. That's not always the case. For example, the aforementioned tech company originally wrote so vaguely about their services using insider jargon that neither target audience understood the company's mission. Once the text was rewritten with specific consumers in mind, people started coming to the owner and saying "Now that you've redone your website, I finally understand what your company is about." In order to not find yourself in that position, ask yourself:

1. Does the website have the information my target audience needs?

A company website is useless if it doesn't have the information your target audience needs. On the most basic level, this should include what your company does, in-depth product or service information, prices associated with your services, and contact information. It's actually astonishing how often companies, both large and small, don't do this.

Just the other day, I was looking at marketing software and even now I couldn't tell you what their product does. If they had taken a step back and assumed that people didn't know what their company did, their website would be more effective and they'd likely increase leads.

2. Am I using the language my target audience would use?

Oftentimes, we get so wrapped up in our industry that we forget that others, especially customers, don't necessarily use the same terms as us. By using terms that are different from those of your target audience, your organic traffic will suffer and your website won't be nearly as effective. When you talk to your customers during the branding exercise, see what terms they use. Use keyword research to validate your findings and use this language on the website.

Remember that your brand position is at the heart of this language and content. You want to talk about your core competencies in a language that's accessible, but through the lens of what makes you different. The tech consulting firm I worked with, for example, rewrote their text so that there were pages dedicated to both their recruiting and consulting services. Both of those pages used the terms that those specific audiences would use, spoke in depth as to what these services were, and did so by concentrating on the 'elite' factor in a way that appealed to both sides. The content and language need to be there for your audience, but use the defining aspects of your brand to spice it up.

3. Develop overarching marketing strategy

So at this point, you have a website that reflects your brand and differentiates you from your competitors. I'm going to assume that your website is already optimized for search engines and that you have a good user experience. You're done, right? Yes and no. You could be done if you're not relying on online to be a huge source of business. If you are counting on online, it's time to start working on your overarching online marketing strategy.

This is the part that tends to feel the most overwhelming for small businesses. With so many different avenues out there, it can be stressful knowing what to pursue. My first piece of advice? Don't pursue them all. It's okay not to. You're a small business owner with limited resources, so only go with the ones that will have the biggest ROI.

So how do you know which ones are worth your time?

Content strategy

In the online marketing world, content is king. Google wants you to deliver value to your site visitors and unique content is one way of going about this. Building a content strategy isn't easy though. You don't want to write the same thing that everyone else in your industry is writing about. There's no unique value in that, and because your site likely isn't strong from a domain authority perspective (yet!), you'll usually find it difficult to rank against the big sites who are writing the same content.

Instead, you'll need to take stances on issues or solve your clients' unique problems, giving them a reason to keep coming back to your site. If you can do this, great, but don't just write content for the sake of it. If you're a small ice cream shop for example, it's going to be difficult to write content that's on-brand and relevant to your audience. In this case, focus on other marketing strategies.

Paid

Doing paid, whether search, display, or social, can be really effective if done correctly. The downside? It can take a lot of time and money to monitor and improve on your campaigns. Highly competitive terms can have extremely high cost-per-click (CPC) rates, and the cost-per-action (CPA) is usually even higher. For example, terms in the insurance industry can have CPCs of $50 in a search environment.

In order to be as cost efficient with this strategy, you'll have to constantly monitor your campaigns and see what is working well and what isn't. Even though it can eat through your time and money, it's a good option for people who aren't showing up in SERPs or driving traffic from other avenues.

Social

Social can be a really effective way of engaging consumers and building brand loyalty, but I normally only suggest starting a social strategy once a company has built out their brand and website. You're going to need unique content, images, or deals in order to have a social marketing strategy. It's often easier to start in other areas and build a catalog of resources before you launch into social.

Once you have content to share, decide which social platforms best fit your company's mission. For example, LinkedIn and Twitter are usually better for B2B while Facebook is better for B2C. Just like you don't have to chase every marketing strategy, you don't have to have a social campaign for every platform. Concentrate on the one or two that will best reach your audience. Make sure the content you're sharing will do well on that platform. For Facebook and Pinterest, you'll need image based content while Twitter and LinkedIn will be best for article-based content or quick updates.

Email

Email marketing isn't an effective method of gaining new customers, but is a great avenue for businesses trying to increase retention or brand loyalty. If this is your goal, make sure your emails contain value. For example, you open email from your doctor's office reminding you about an appointment or from a local ice cream shop that offers discounts because these emails contain value. When people open these emails, their lives get easier or they're given something that gives them tangible value. It's vital that your email marketing communications do the same whether it be content or deals.

Local

If you're a small business using the Internet to drive traffic to your store, I absolutely believe you should be invested in local. While there's the initial time investment to get it set up, there's a minimal time investment needed to keep it up-to-date.

Promotions

At Distilled, we have a whole team responsible for reaching out to bloggers and publications in order to get our clients and their content featured in the right places. Their work not only helps build brand awareness but, when our clients' work is covered and linked to, also has the added SEO benefit of natural links and, in turn, a stronger site.

Most small businesses don't have the resources for this kind of promotion, but if you want your brand and organic traffic to grow, it's vital that you partake in a variation of this. Instead of scoping out bloggers and target publications like the New York Times though, start small. Build relationships with other businesses in your area or be active in industry specific forums. Building those relationships and positioning yourself as a thought leader will help your business as well as your own name grow which can then result in brand awareness and links. For small businesses, it's important to network even in a way that isn't necessarily 'online first.'

There's a lot that goes into marketing for any size company, but it can be particularly overwhelming for small businesses which have limited time and resources. It'll be a lot of work, no doubt about it, but will feel a little more manageable, even for one-person teams, if you take it one step at a time.

Start by figuring out what makes your company different and communicating that. In my experience, this alone will put you ahead of many of your small business counterparts. Then it's time to think about your customers' needs and how you'll address them. Having content that's valuable to your customers and their problems, content they'll actually want to consume, is a huge part of the battle.

Now that you've got the content, decide which marketing strategies will be most likely to help you reach your target audience. Just remember that you don't have to overextend yourself and use every possible marketing channel to do this. So: Brand. Language. Content. Share. You've got this.

Tell me about your small business branding adventures in the comments below!

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Seth's Blog : Ruckusmaker day

Ruckusmaker day

About to be celebrated all over the world for the first time, tomorrow is annual Ruckusmaker Day.

Tomorrow would have been Steve Jobs' 60th birthday. Steve's contribution wasn't invention. Technology breakthroughs didn't came out of his workbench the way they did from Land or Tesla. Instead, his contribution was to have a point of view. To see something and say 'yes' or 'no'. To not only have a point of view, but to change it when the times demanded.

Most of all, to express that point of view, to act on it, to live with it.

There's a lot to admire about the common-sense advice, "If you don't have anything worth saying, don't say anything."

On the other hand, one reason we often find ourselves with nothing much to say is that we've already decided that it's safer and easier to say nothing.

If you've fallen into that trap, then committing to having a point of view and scheduling a time and place to say something is almost certainly going to improve your thinking, your attitude and your trajectory.

A daily blog is one way to achieve this. Not spouting an opinion or retweeting the click of the day. Instead, outlining what you believe and explaining why.

Commit to articulating your point of view on one relevant issue, one news story, one personnel issue. Every day. Online or off, doesn't matter. Share your taste and your perspective with someone who needs to hear it.

Speak up. Not just tomorrow, but every day.

A worthwhile habit.

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duminică, 22 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Google Chrome Approaching World Domination?

Posted: 22 Feb 2015 03:54 PM PST

A few moments ago a reader was having difficulty with an ad on my blog. I occasionally get complaints, and most of the recent ones involve non-US ads. The reader said the problem went away when he switched over to Chrome from Internet Explorer.

That got me wondering what browsers people were using to read my blog. Here are the results from a 20-minute, mid-Saturday snip.

Mish Readers by Browser

The above is publicly available on Stat-Counter which tracks my traffic.

If you wish to take a look, click on the "View My Stats" button (not the number) at the bottom of this page.

Since inception I have had over 102 million hits (the number shown).

I switched over to Stat-Counter from SiteMeter long ago, for numerous problems that I still see people complaining about. Stat-Counter keeps track of all kinds of things as does Google Analytics.

Search Engine Traffic

Search engine traffic (if someone found by blog via a search rather than a bookmark) looks like this.

Mish Traffic by Location

Browser War Over?

I did a search for the term "browser war" and discovered this December 19, 2014 ZDNet article: Did the browser wars finally end in 2014?

The modern browser wars began in earnest in 2004, when Mozilla Firefox challenged Internet Explorer's complete and utter market dominance, successfully growing from zero to several hundred million users in less than five years.

Google took over in 2008, introducing its Chrome browser, which caught up with Firefox by 2012.

The fighting might have finally ended in 2014.

Over the past decade, a lot has changed: Mobile devices now outnumber traditional PCs, and the desktop browser has become much less important than mobile web clients and apps. Apple's mobile Safari and Google's Chrome are now major players, Mozilla is in a time of major transition, and Microsoft is still paying for its past sins with Internet Explorer.

And in 2014, all those players seem to have dug in to well-entrenched positions. Here's an end-of-year status report for each one.

Google Chrome: On a Path to World Domination

Google, it turns out, would love to have the dominant market share that Internet Explorer did back in its heyday, without the performance and security nightmares associated with IE.

The company is using a move straight out of the Microsoft playbook from the 1990s, using its dominant free services (Google Search, Gmail, and YouTube, in particular) to push the Chrome browser, and adding capabilities that require Chrome apps, which are designed to create the same type of lock-in that Microsoft's ActiveX enforced in the early days of the Web, minus the horrible security flaws.

If that screenshot reminds you of "Best viewed in Internet Explorer 6," you're not alone.

The strategy seems to be working. While other browsers are remaining flat or declining in share, Chrome is still ascending, albeit more slowly. According to Net Applications, Chrome was in use on 20.6 percent of desktop and notebook PCs and Macs at the end of 2014, up from 16.4 percent at the beginning of the year. At StatCounter, which measures usage, Chrome crossed the 50 percent mark this year and now accounts for more web-based activity than Internet Explorer and Firefox combined.

Internet Explorer: Still No Respect

Microsoft's biggest problem at this point is maintaining compatibility with older IE versions that don't hew to modern standards. This year the company announced plans to drop support for all but the latest version of Internet Explorer, a policy that would bring it into parity with most of its rivals. The trouble is, that policy doesn't take effect until January 2016.

Meanwhile, Internet Explorer is still despised by developers, who rightfully resent having to build in hacks for all those old but still supported versions. Despite the fact that recent versions of Internet Explorer are remarkably standards-compliant, there are still sites that don't work properly in IE, usually because whoever built the site designed it to run on Chrome or Safari and didn't even bother testing it with Internet Explorer.

Mozilla: An Uncertain Future

For the past three years, Mozilla has been living high on the hog, thanks to a search deal with Google that paid $300 million a year for the past three years.

That Google deal expired in November. As the clock ticked down, Mozilla announced a new five-year (U.S.-only) search partnership with Yahoo but pointedly resisted specifying its terms. A look at Mozilla's balance sheet raises questions about its long-term prospects, especially as it tries to move aggressively into the mobile sector with its own Firefox OS.

It hasn't been a great year for Mozilla. In March, Firefox Vice President Johnathan Nightingale publicly threw in the towel on a long and expensive development effort to build a touch-capable Firefox for the Windows 8 Metro interface. That same month, co-founder Brendan Eich became CEO but lasted less than two weeks before resigning over a controversial political donation.

Safari: Apple's House Browser

In the beginning, Safari was introduced on the Mac as a way for Apple to break its dependence on Internet Explorer.

And then a funny thing happened: As mobile devices became more important, mobile Safari on iOS became more important than its older sibling on the Mac. Apple has sold far more iPhones and iPads than MacBooks and iMacs at this point, and sales of mobile devices are continuing to grow faster than Macs.

And Safari is actually being used on those mobile devices. Yes, there are third-party browsers (including Chrome) in the App Store, but they're forced to use the Safari rendering and JavaScript engines, which means Apple has complete control over the web browsing experience.

Opera: Hanging On

For several months this year I've used Opera as my default desktop browser. The experiment was designed to see whether an independent alternative based on the Webkit rendering engine could succeed.

Overall, it hasn't been a completely unsuccessful experiment. There's a lot to like in the new Opera, although a few key features, including the ability to sync bookmarks and passwords, are still missing. More importantly, some sites that were designed to work best with Chrome or Safari fail in mysterious ways in Opera. The failure rate is worse than with Internet Explorer 11, in my experience.

Unfortunately, the most messed-up pages are those I see when I try to use Opera to visit ZDNet. In particular, our new commenting system is almost impossible to use with Opera. That means I either have to use another browser or ... stop reading comments. Decisions, decisions.

It's pretty clear to see where this is headed. Firefox has some major issues. Opera is not in the picture at all, and Microsoft is headed that way.

Addendum

Out of further curiosity, I did a Google Analytics view of readership sessions for the month of December 2014. In December, every country in the world visited my blog at some point except for Turkmenistan and 9 countries in Africa.

Top 10 Visits by Country

Those are sessions. Page hits are about 1.5 times higher.

For all of 2014, every country in the world visited this blog.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tspiras Claims to have "Won a Battle, Not the War"; Greece to Combat Tax Evasion; Illusion Shattered; Another Bailout?

Posted: 22 Feb 2015 11:54 AM PST

On Friday, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras backed down on nearly every promise made to the Greek electorate except one, to stay on the euro. After so much tough rhetoric, the question is why?

I believe the answer is the Greek primary account surplus vanished, making it impossible to honor all commitments made.

Simply put, Greece had to choose between staying on the euro and honoring the other campaign promises.

Greece Attacks Tax Evasion

On Monday, Greece will submit its reform plan to eurozone officials. At the heart of the deal, Reforms Will 'Combat Tax Evasion'.

Greece will crack down on tax evasion and streamline its civil service in its bid to secure a bailout extension, minister of state Nikos Pappas says.

The government is working on a package of reforms that it must submit to international creditors on Monday. If the reforms are approved, Greece will be granted a vital four-month extension on its debt repayments.

Mr Pappas said the reforms being proposed would take the Greek economy "out of sedation". "We are compiling a list of measures to make the Greek civil service more effective and to combat tax evasion," he told Greece's Mega Channel.

Illusion Shattered

Streamlining civil services will reduce expenses, but it's hardly what the leftist government promised. Combating tax invasion was a campaign promise, so make it two campaign promises kept for those keeping an official score.

Nonetheless, those expecting Tsipras to immediately honor all pledges, just had their illusion shattered.

Reuters reports Greece Readies Reform Promises.

Top Marxist members of Tsipras's Syriza party, a broad coalition of the left, have so far been silent on the painful compromises made to win agreement from the Eurogroup.

But veteran leftist Manolis Glezos attacked the failure to fulfill campaign promises. "I apologize to the Greek people because I took part in this illusion," he wrote in a blog. "Syriza's friends and supporters ... should decide if they accept this situation."

Glezos, a Syriza member of the European Parliament, is not a party heavyweight. But he commands moral authority: as a young man under the World War Two occupation, he scaled the Acropolis to rip down a Nazi flag under the noses of German guards and hoist the Greek flag, making him a national hero.

A government official said Glezos "may not be well informed on the tough and laborious negotiation which is continuing".

The opposition pounced on the climbdown from promises that have raised huge expectations among Greeks. "No propaganda mechanism or pirouette can hide the simple fact that they lied to citizens and sold illusions," said Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the socialist PASOK party.

Friday's agreement merely buys time for Greece to seek a long-term deal with the Eurogroup. Euro zone members Ireland and Portugal have already exited their bailouts, but Greece faces yet another program - on top of bailouts in 2010 and 2011 totaling 240 billion euros - when the extension expires.

"Once you get them into the safe space for the next four months, there'll be another set of discussions which will effectively involve the negotiation of a third program for Greece," Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said on Saturday.

Troika by Any Other Name Smells Just as Bad

Six days ago in Greek Negotiations and Philosophical Questions I asked Does "Troika" by any other name stink as bad?

My answer was "Beauty is in the nose of the beholder. But logically, the answer is yes."

Keep Talking Greece has some interesting Excerpts from a Statement Made by Glezos.

"Renaming the Troika into Institutions, the Memorandum of Understanding into Agreement, and the lenders into partners, you do not change the previous situations as in the case renaming meat into fish.

The people voted in favor of what SYRIZA promised: to remove the austerity which is not the only strategy of the oligarchic Germany and the other EU countries, but also the strategy of the Greek oligarchy.

Some argue that to reach an agreement, you have to retreat. First: there can be no compromise between oppressor and oppressed. Between the slave and the occupier is the only solution is Freedom.

But even if we accept this absurdity, the concessions already made by the previous pro-austerity governments in terms of unemployment, austerity, poverty, suicides have gone beyond the limits."

Third Bailout Coming

On February 11, I discussed the need for a third bailout in Third Greek Bailout? Another €53.8 Billion Needed? Primary Account Surplus Revisited.

That explains the comment made by Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan yesterday. "Once you get them into the safe space for the next four months, there'll be another set of discussions which will effectively involve the negotiation of a third program for Greece."

"Won a Battle, Not the War"

Will Tspiras finally draw a line in the sand or will he accept another €53.8 Billion crammed down his throat?

I think so. But before he can do so, Greece needs to have a solid primary account surplus. That explains why the heart of his reform program involves a crackdown on "tax evasion" and cutting civil service.

To default on the Troika and stay in the eurozone, Greece must have a primary account surplus. Tsipras has a four month window to achieve that.

War Postponed Four Months

In context, the battle was to stay on the euro. The war was postponed for four months. In the interim, Tsipras needs to keep his coalition intact.

Once again, I do not care for the leftist policies of Syriza. But the citizens of Greece have suffered enough and are better off defaulting as soon as they can. That requires a primary account surplus.

On Friday German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble rubbed Greek capitulation in Tsipras' face with his comment "The Greeks certainly will have a difficult time to explain the deal to their voters. As long as the programme isn't successfully completed, there will be no payout."

Let's see what happens four months from now.

With roles reversed and Schäuble playing the witch, I envision Tsipras' silently saying "All in good time my little pretty, in good time".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : The trolls inside

The trolls inside

The worst troll is in your head.

Internet trolls are the commenters begging for a fight, the anonymous critics eager to tear you down, the hateful packs of roving evil dwarves, out for amusement.

But the one in your head, that voice of insecurity and self-criticism, that's the one you need to be the most vigilant about.

Do not feed the troll.

Do not reason with the troll.

Do not argue with the troll.

Most of all, don't litigate. Don't make your case, call your witnesses, prove you are right. Because the troll knows how to sway a jury even better than you do.

Get off the troll train. Turn your back, walk away, ship the work.

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sâmbătă, 21 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Prepare for Full-Scale War" says Ukraine Deputy Foreign Minister: "With What?" asks Mish; Ukraine Lie of the Day

Posted: 21 Feb 2015 01:25 PM PST

I have been sitting on close to a dozen videos describing the massive damage in military equipment in the latest separatist surge.

For a description, but no videos, please see Debaltsevsky Under Rebel Control, Boiler Remains; What's Next?

I saw no need to post videos because to me it was pretty obvious this was a repeat of the devastating defeat of Ukraine last August in the Battle of Ilovaisk in which Ukrainian forces refused an offer to exit encirclement by leaving behind equipment.

Ukraine Lie of the Day

Today Ukrainian "Antiterrorist Operation" spokesman Andrei Lysenko says Since 2015 Ukraine Destroyed Nearly 3,000 Militants.

I have no idea how many separatists were killed, but the rest of the claim in the body of the article is preposterous.

"According to operational information and data provided by our scouts, since the beginning of 2015, in Debaltsevo area, the Ukrainian military killed 2,911 militants and Russian military. More than 40 tanks, 30 armored combat vehicles, about 30 multiple rocket launchers."

In addition, since the establishment of the cease-fire, that is, from February 15, we neutralized 868 militants, 8 tanks, 11 armored combat vehicles and four multiple rocket launchers.

Tour of Carnage

Does anyone in Ukraine or elsewhere believe the horse hockey by Andrei Lysenko?

If 3,000 rebels are dead, can we have some images? What about images of tanks destroyed? Images of anything?

If there were destroyed separatist tanks, satellites would pick that up.

Let's take a brief video tour of the actual carnage. Here is a short 1:32 video showing a destroyed tank, captured equipment and a Nazi helmet.

Link if video does not play: On the former UAF Position we Found a German Helmet with Swastika. That video may have an annoying 15-second ad.

Here is a 4:16 video whose title roughly translates as Ukrainian Media Officer and Recon Team Meets Fate in Debaltsevo.

Tank Battle Video

Here is an 11:28 video that describes "Details of the Tank Battle on the Night of February 18"

This video starts out slow. You may wish to fast forward to the 2-minute mark. It does not get really interesting until the four minute mark when you see more destroyed Ukrainian tanks and other equipment. You also see captured stockpiles of weapons. The heart of the video is the 4 to six minute mark but more destroyed vehicles around the 7 minute mark and another destroyed tank towards the end.

Abandoned Tanks

Let's assume for a second the Ukrainian forces managed to destroy a tank or two. If it pleases you, assume three or five

Check out this video of abandoned Ukrainian tanks, other vehicles, and munitions.

The announcer at the beginning ends in about 15 seconds. Some of the footage repeats but around the 3:00 minute mark or so it gets interesting for a second time. The video shows an entire Ukrainian army camp abandoned.

No doubt the soldiers wanted to escape on foot with their lives. Again some of the footage repeats so it's difficult to tell how many times and many angles some of the same equipment appears.

Regardless, we can say the separatists captured many "trophies".

Link if video does not play: "Ghost" Brigade Took Novogrigorovku Towards Artemovskii

I have many more of these, from many locations, some showing gruesome bodies. In the above horse hockey, it's as if Andrei Lysenko is describing Ukrainian losses not separatist losses.

Jacob Dreizin comments ...

Politicians and generals in Kiev have been making up statistics on rebel casualties and "Russian tanks crossing the border" (and denying their own losses) since day one. However, it's clear now that the Anglo-American press is finally wising up to this. Although they are not yet wise enough to attempt an aggregate total for Ukrainian KIA to date. I estimate this at 6000 since April 2014 as an absolute minimum. This is about 4-5 times higher than the "official" tally from Kiev. That's my minimum estimate. I suspect the real figure is 1000 or 2000 higher. This does not include those too seriously wounded to ever return to front-line duty, which may be another 50% of the total dead. In addition, Ukraine is prosecuting over 1,000 deserters. Those deserters must also be counted as troops lost. As for rebel losses, I estimate 1/4 to 1/3 of the Ukrainian total.

Ukrainian equipment lost in the "Ilovaisk cauldron" and the various mini-cauldrons last summer were replaced from mothballed Soviet-era stocks and to a much lesser extent from new production.

I believe Kiev has finally hit the wall. Its stocks are nearly empty. There's still enough ammo to fight for a few years, but in terms of equipment, Ukraine no longer has anything to replace what it just lost around Debaltsevo, let alone to seriously equip new units coming online.

So all of these new draftees they are now "mobilizing" will have to fight on bicycles. Either that, or American tanks. Or, Kiev will need to ask the rebels for a 3-year ceasefire while it produces enough new equipment from its half-ruined factories. Take your pick.

"Prepare for Full-Scale War"

Jacob's comment came in yesterday. Today we see this headline from Colonel Cassad: Ukraine Deputy Foreign Minister Vadim Pristayko Says Ukraine Prepared for "Full-Scale War."

According to Pristayko, Kiev "Ukraine is no longer afraid to come into conflict with a nuclear power".

Don't like Cassad? OK I have Canadian source. CBC News says Ukraine preparing for 'full-scale war,' says former envoy to Canada.

An envoy to Canada is one thing, and a Deputy Foreign Minister is another. Vadym Prystaiko is now Ukraine's deputy foreign minister. And he is begging Canada for weapons for obvious reasons.

Ukraine's deputy foreign minister says he is preparing for "full-scale war" against Russia and wants Canada to help by supplying lethal weapons and the training to use them.

In an interview with CBC Radio's The House airing Saturday, Prystaiko says the ceasefire brokered by Germany and France was not holding.

"The biggest hub we ever had in the railroad is completely destroyed and devastated," he told host Evan Solomon about Debaltseve, captured by Russian-backed rebels after the terms were to have taken effect earlier this week.

The former ambassador was in the room during the attempts to broker a political solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Minsk.

"Personally I don't trust him," he says. "You look at him and you think, 'Are you serious?'"

[Mish comment: And why the hell should anyone, including Ukrainian citizens trust Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko has lied about the losses, the civilian casualties, amnesty, constitutional reforms, and damn near everything else. This does not condone Putin. It's a statement that lies are not one sided.

"Nobody knows what is going on in his head. I believe he is becoming very emotional [over the two countries' historic ties]," he suggests, calling Putin's intentions "difficult to predict."

[Mish Comment: I do not pretend to know what is going on in Putin's head. But what the F is going on in Poroshenko's head to not give a damn about willingness to engage a nuclear power? And if anything it's easier to ascertain Putin. He does not want NATO on his back porch any more than Kennedy would allow Russian missiles in Cuba.]

"We don't want to scare everybody, but we are preparing for full-scale war."

What to do in the face of such a threat? For starters, get over your fears, he says.

"What we expect from the world is that the world will stiffen up in the spine a little," he says. "Everybody is afraid of fighting with a nuclear state. We are not anymore, in Ukraine — we've lost so many people of ours, we've lost so much of our territory.

[Mish comment: Prystaiko now begs Canada for weapons.]

"We would like Canada to send lethal weapons to Ukraine," he said. "Weapons to allow us to defend ourselves."

Canada has been helping to train Ukrainian soldiers for the last decade, but it isn't enough, he says. "It wasn't on the level that would help our army [against an] invasion." Ukraine wants weapons, and training to use them, he said.

Prepare for Full-Scale War - With What?

Why is Prystaiko begging Canada for weapons?

Because Ukraine is out of weapons. Ukraine lost masses of weapons last summer in various cauldrons and were pounded again recently.

These idiots in Ukraine do not care how many of their citizens die.

Why should the US or Canada or anyone else care about a civil war in Ukraine? So what if Russia is backing one side. It's none of our business.

And now these jackasses are prepared to up the ante risking war with a nuclear power. They are nuts and Canada would be nuts to give Ukraine weapons.

Flushing Action

Should there be a Maple Leaf on the above leg as well?

War is Over

On January 29, in Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus I made these statements:

This War is Over

The Vietnam war ended when public support turned against it, even though fighting continued long after.

The same applies here. The war is over. Hearts and minds have been lost along with the will to fight. Ukraine is split in two, barring a major military intervention by the US.

Even though the war is over, the fighting can continue. How much longer the battles go on now depends on the US and IMF.

The US can fund the bloodshed for a while longer and so can the IMF. US war-mongers may decide no price is too high to pay, even to the absurd point of engaging Russia directly.
The US and IMF can force true peace negotiations on Kiev with a partition or federation of the country. But, what may have been acceptable to the separatists and Russia six months ago may no longer be so.

Either way, Ukraine is never going to be a single country again. Such is the madness of arbitrarily drawing borders with no regard to cultural, political, or religious beliefs.

The war is over. Kiev lost, even with the backing of the US. Let the peace process begin before more lives are lost and more needless destruction occurs.

I believe that was an accurate assessment, and no one else called it.

Not only have the citizens of Ukraine given up the will to fight, Ukraine is out of military equipment and now begs Canada and the US for some.

For what? Why?

Ukraine is never going to be a single 100% united country again. Crimea is gone for good. Of course, Crimea was never really part of Ukraine in the first place.

There is still hope for a loose federation with what remains. But that requires 100% guarantees of amnesty and constitutional reforms.

Meanwhile, if the US and Canada send more weapons, so will Russia.

The US and Canada should both tell Ukraine, as did Chancellor Merkel, "the solution is political not military".

If that were to happen, and especially if the IMF demanded a ceasefire before agreeing to more funding, the fighting would end tomorrow.

You cannot fight war with no money, no arms, and no will of the people. Realistically, the war is over. You may prefer the term "decided" instead of "over". Regardless, all the US and Canada can do at this point is prolong the misery.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 23 februarie 2015

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