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Is there a human being alive who is capable of getting to an airplane who doesn't know how to buckle his seatbelt?
Given that we have 100% seatbelt understanding among the flying population, why do flight attendants repeat the instructions literally millions of times a year? (Low and flat across the waist...)
It's stuck.
Like so many policies, beliefs and procedures in our organizations, this is a ritual that's stuck. To get unstuck, organizations need two things:
a. a vacuum and,
b. a willingness to ignore dissent
Change gets made by people who care, who have some sort of authority and are willing to take responsibility. Often, though, finding all three is tough, particularly when faced with the immovable object of the stuck organization.
One approach to getting unstuck is the clean sheet of paper. Dictate that the speech before flight is going to change, that the menu will be redone, that the qualifications are going to start over, from zero.
Now, instead of needing an unanimous vote to remove something, merely demand that you need a passionate voice to add something.
For years, the Yahoo home page was stuck, with literally hundreds of links on it. No one could take a link off the page, because unanimous consent was impossible. Once Google decided to start with a completely blank page, a different approach was possible.
Move your team across the street, open a new location, completely rewrite the employee handbook, throw out the standard sales script--by creating a vacuum, you give your team permission to invent.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 01 Jun 2012 11:20 AM PDT George Orwell coined the term doublethink in his classic book 1984. Doublethink is the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them. Have you listened to the conflicted beliefs coming from Spain lately? Conflicted Beliefs
Geithner to the Rescue? The Financial Times reports Spain and US hold talks on bank aid Madrid has begun openly discussing outside assistance for its troubled banking sector, with a top Spanish official saying she had raised the issue with Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, who urged the EU to "find a solution" to stabilise Spain's banks.De Guindos is globe-trotting the world, holding meetings with the EU in Brussels, with French president Hollande in France, with Germany's finance minister in Berlin, with treasury secretary Tim Geithner and the IMF in the US, asking for "assistance with no strings attached" while insisting "Spain does not need a rescue and its banks are not in trouble". This is exactly the kind of Orwellian story that is nearly impossible to make up. In response, gold is bucking the overall market trend as is the $HUI unhedged miner index up nearly 7% on the day as of 1:30 central while the overall market is down 3.3%. So what can Geithner really do? Nothing is the answer. What did Geithner say? Undoubtedly something along the lines and as pertinent as "Rah! Rah! Rah! Ciscoom Bah!" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 01 Jun 2012 08:57 AM PDT Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
These numbers and the monthly swings in the numbers are well past the point of believability and will be revised at some point in my opinion. Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness. Jobs Report at a Glance Here is an overview of today's release.
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data. May 2012 Jobs Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May 2012 Employment Report. Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade but declined in construction. Employment was little changed in most other major industries. Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted ![]() Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted ![]() Employment is finally above the total just prior to the 2001 recession. Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted ![]() click on chart for sharper image Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs. Since a recent employment low in February 2010, nonfarm payrolls have expanded by 4.1 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, approximately 46.7% percent have been recovered. Statistically, 125,000+- jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat. For a discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics? The average employment gain over the last 27 months has been 139,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate. Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% to 8.2%. Current Report Jobs ![]() Average Weekly Hours ![]() Average weekly hours for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined to 34.4 hours in May. Average weekly hours for production and nonsupervisory employees remained unchanged at 33.7 hours. Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI ![]() Except in the depths of the recession when the CPI plunged into negative territory, wages have not kept up with the CPI. "Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist
BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey. The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total. The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance. Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way. Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions. Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011 ![]() Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012 ![]() Birth-Death Note Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Household Survey Data ![]() click on chart for sharper image In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,653,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,307,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,345,000. That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes. Decline in Labor Force Factors
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%. Part Time Status ![]() click on chart for sharper image There are 8,098,workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment ![]() click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 8.2%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 14.8%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Duration of Unemployment ![]() Note the huge drop in duration of unemployment in the 15-26 week category accompanied by an even larger increase in the long-term unemployed category. Grossly Distorted Statistics Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers. Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate. Last month the seasonally adjusted Civilian Labor Force fell by 342,000. This month it rose by 642,000.This is beyond statistical noise, to the point of pure statistical bullsheet. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 01 Jun 2012 07:23 AM PDT Once again it was a pleasure to be on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster. The show is live TV with the studio in Washington D.C. with the feed to my house over Skype. The clip below was taped. The audio connection dropped twice but most of that was edited out in the video below. The main topics were US GDP, hyperinflation, Ireland, and a eurozone breakup. I present my ideas on how a breakup should happen. Link if video does not play: Mike Shedlock on the Spexit, the Grexit and Running for the Eurozone Exit! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 31 May 2012 11:28 PM PDT The latest word of the day is the already approved, then denied, then tabled plan to implement hispabonos was dropped from discussion at Friday's cabinet meeting according to La Vangauardia. The approval of so-called hispabonos, which will allow the autonomous communities in the markets financed through the state with a lower cost, will be delayed at least a week after the Government has decided not to take it to the Council Ministers tomorrow.Mish Translation Prime minister Mariano Rajoy has no idea what to do. Without hispabonos (central bank guarantees of regional debt) the regional governments are going to have an exceptionally difficult time financing new debt or rolling over existing debt. Yet with guarantees, Spain faces more debt downgrades and higher yields overall. When you don't know what to do, the default choice is to table the discussion and pray for a miracle. IMF Discusses Contingency Plans The Wall Street Journal reports IMF Begins Talk On Spain Contingency Plans The European department of the International Monetary Fund has started discussing contingency plans for a rescue loan to Spain in the event that the country fails to find the funds needed to bailout its third-largest bank by assets, Bankia SA, BKIA.MC +0.19% people involved in the handling of the Spanish crisis said Thursday.Spain's Economy Minster Says IMF Rescue Plan is Nonsense Economy minister Luis de Guindos calls the rescue plan "nonsense" stating IMF report sees 70% of Spanish banks as healthy Economy minister, Luis de Guindos, has described as "nonsense" that the IMF is preparing a plan if Spain fails to rescue Bankia funding. Moreover, says the institution will publish a report saying that 70% of Spanish banks is healthy.Anyone who thinks Spain's banks other than Bankia are "perfectly healthy" is a liar or insane. Hyperbolic Selloff Coming? The Telegraph reports Spain faces 'total emergency' as fear grips markets Markets are on tenterhooks as Spanish yields test levels that forced the European Central Bank to respond last November with its €1 trillion liquidity blitz. "Nobody is short Spanish debt right now because they are expecting ECB intervention," said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS. "If it doesn't come -- if we take out 6.8pc -- we're going to see a hyberbolic sell-off," he said.Academic Wonderland and a Lesson on Moral Hazzard LSE professor Paul De Grauwe is a complete fool trapped in academic wonderland. If the market thinks the yield of Spanish and Italian debt should be greater than a 300 basis point spread to German bunds, then the ECB would soon be the proud owner of 100% of Spanish and Italian debt. It is rather amazing that a professor cannot figure out that simple truism. Economic fools like De Grauwe are part of the problem. They brainwash students into believing total and complete nonsense. As for "doing the job of a central bank and stop worrying about moral hazard" I can say the same thing about Guy Mandy. Neither cares one iota that the German constitution does not allow what they propose. Neither bothered to figure out this mess has gotten bigger every step of the way because central banks ignored moral hazard. Indeed, central banks are by their very existence the epitome of moral hazard. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Wheels Of The Future [Infographic] Posted: 01 Jun 2012 11:06 AM PDT ![]() We know plenty about how digital technology is reshaping computing, smartphones, personal relationships and business. But what about something most of us depend on every single day — the automobile? Digital tech is also changing how we use and interact with our cars, and in more ways than you probably realize. Vehicle-to-vehicle communications, for example, could help automobiles detect one another's presence and location to avoid accidents. That could be especially useful when it comes to driverless cars — another advance already very much in development. Similar technology could help ensure that cars and their drivers slow down for school zones or stop at red lights. Symphony Services scoured sources from around the web to compile all this and more into the infographic below. Click image to see a larger version. ![]() Via Mashable |
Posted: 31 May 2012 10:47 PM PDT ![]() Surrender Monkeys teams up with advertising agency Buzzman and brings us this special effects video of soccer players celebrating their goals. So, if you ever wanted to see Christiano Ronaldo shooting lasers from his eyes and Wayne Rooney literally on fire, now is your chance. |
Take a Peak into Blizzard Entertainment Headquarters Posted: 31 May 2012 10:28 PM PDT |
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