miercuri, 31 octombrie 2012

#Mozinars: They're Back, and They're Free!

#Mozinars: They're Back, and They're Free!


#Mozinars: They're Back, and They're Free!

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:51 AM PDT

Posted by Erica McGillivray

You've been asking and waiting patiently for them. Well, Mozzers, today's your lucky day! Mozinars are back and better than ever. Now you can join us for any upcoming Mozinar or watch previously recorded webinars as we've opened them up to everyone. That's right; they're now free for everyone's viewing pleasure! Think of it as a big hug from us to you.

Free Hugs (or Free Mozinars)

Photo credit Tristan Reville
 
Because we're committed to bringing you interesting and fun online marketing tips, we've booked some amazing voices from our community for the upcoming Mozinars. We hope you'll enjoy them and learn a ton. 
 
Take a gander at our full Mozinar line-up with Mozinars booked through March 2013, and even a few more scheduled further out.
 
Or, scroll through these awesome topics and presenters:
 
 
As you can see, we have a ton of Mozinars coming up that focus on a diverse amount of topics. Register today, and we'll see you soon!

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

One Step Back, Two Steps Forward

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 04:17 AM PDT

Posted by MozCTO

When we’re working on fixing an immediate problem, especially one that’s affecting customers, it’s difficult to stop and take a breather. But sometimes, a breather is exactly what is needed to solve the issue. 

One Step Back

Last month was a bit rough for our Big Data team. We spent most of the month heads-down fixing issues with Rankings and Keyword Difficulty, and our technical debt was creeping up on us. I wanted to give into my natural urge to hunker down, chew on the issues, and come up with a plan that would fix as much as I could. However, I had a weekly 1 on 1 meeting scheduled that seemed to be getting in the way of my plan to lay low and problem solve.

Here at Moz, each employee attends weekly or bi-weekly 1 on 1 meeting with managers or teammates to help keep our goals on track. 1 on 1 meetings are a chance for teammates to act as soundboards for project ideas and idea generators for solutions to issues. These meetings are an important part of our culture, but on this particular day my focus was elsewhere and I didn’t feel I had time for my 1 on 1 with Matt Peters, our rock star data scientist. Realizing that we had missed our last meeting, I begrudgingly made time to fit the meeting in. After our usual good talk on algorithms, correlations, and next steps for growing his team, we started bouncing ideas off each other on how to save money on processing. We were spending $800,000 on processing and not really getting anything for it. The current plan was simply unsustainable. 

Matt, in his very scientific way, broke down the problem in exact numbers. I, however, will break them down for you in a very Anthony way:

  • Long-term, we knew we needed to fix the issues we were having with Amazon, but we were reacting to missing our index release date instead.
  • Short-term, it seemed sensible to spin up more servers and get the index done more quickly.
  • In reality, spinning up more servers at Amazon was only increasing our costs, and our server failures. The current solution was not only not addressing the problem, but in some ways it was making the problem worse by taking time away from the team’s efforts to fix the long-term issues.  

Taking a step back from the immediate problem made it clear that our current approach wasn’t working.

300 Servers, 250 Operational Hours, Infinite Headaches

*Server photo by Kim Scarborough used through creative commons license.

Coming Up with a Better Plan

After the insight I gained in my 1 on 1 with Matt, it was clear we needed to change our approach. Matt and I and outlined a high-level plan for lowering our costs with the added potential bonus of getting indices out on time. We figured it might be a hard sell after telling the team, “Don’t miss the date at all cost,” for the last two months. They'd spent hundreds of hours trying to keep all of those servers up, and we weren't sure how open to this change they would be.

However, Carin, our stellar Manager of Big Data, brought the team together and we all agreed on the plan. Carin outlined the issues and then proposed the new approach in this snippet from her email to Rand:

The New Plan:

  1. Run two indexes at most in AWS:
  • One cluster on 80 cc2.8xlarge machines - these are HUGE and more expensive, but should complete an index in less time, making them cheaper over the month.
  • If necessary, run a backup index on 200 smaller c1.xlarge machines (current setup).
  1. Continue to maintain an index size of 60 - 70 billion URLs to keep processing time reasonable.

This plan allows for engineering time to tackle the larger problems: develop a testing environment and improve the Mozscape code base. Most importantly, though, we can distribute PLDs across processing shards in a more efficient manner, which could lead to significant time savings in processing.

Two Steps Forward

Luckily, Rand approved the plan, and the time and energy spent to take a step back really paid off. Newer, better, bigger equipment did the job, with no server failures and no operational headaches. The October index release is the result of the change. It finished in record time and only cost $100,000, compared to the $800,000 spent last month.

80 servers, zero operational hours, completed index

*Server photo by Kim Scarborough used through creative commons license.

We learned quite a few things from this experience, but this was our most important takeaway: the times when you feel like you don’t have time to step back and reassess are exactly the times when you should. It may not always save you $700,000, but there is a chance that it might. The time spent gaining a new perspective can bring solutions to light that you’d have never seen if you’d kept that nose to the grindstone! 

We are hopeful that future indexes run as smoothly as October, and if they don’t, we'll remember our own advice and take a step back before moving forward.


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How to Help the Survivors of Hurricane Sandy

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
 
How to Help the Survivors of Hurricane Sandy

As recovery and clean up begins along much of the East Coast, we know that people across the country are asking what they can do to offer to aid their fellow Americans.

FEMA offered a list of suggestions, including the most efficient ways to donate, best practices for volunteering, and a special reminder that the Red Cross has a need for blood donations right now.

If you’re a survivor of Sandy or know someone in need of shelter, see this list of Red Cross shelters: http://www.redcross.org/find-help/shelter

If you're interested in helping the survivors of Hurricane Sandy, please read this list of suggestions.

President Barack Obama delivers remarks during his visit to the Disaster Operation Center at the Red Cross national headquarters in Washington, D.C., Oct. 30, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Barack Obama delivers remarks during his visit to the Disaster Operation Center at the Red Cross national headquarters in Washington, D.C., Oct. 30, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Update on Hurricane Sandy
As Hurricane Sandy continued to track westward, federal response teams were already providing assistance for those affected by the storm.

Weekly Address: Protecting the American People with New Wall Street Reforms 
In this week’s address, President Obama highlights the work of the new independent consumer watchdog he fought to create.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

9:30 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

11:30 AM: The Vice President delivers remarks at a campaign event

12:00 PM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

12:15 PM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews

1:00 PM: The President arrives Atlantic City, New Jersey

1:05 PM: The President views storm damage with New Jersey Governor Christie

3:00 PM: The Vice President delivers remarks at a campaign event

4:40 PM: The President departs Atlantic City, New Jersey

5:30 PM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews

5:45 PM: The President arrives the White House

Get Updates


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Seth's Blog : Getting over ourselves

 

Getting over ourselves

In the face of billions of dollars of destruction, of the loss of life, of families distrupted, it's easy to wonder what we were so hung up on just a few days ago. Many just went face to face with an epic natural disaster, and millions are still recovering. Writer's block or a delayed shipment or an unreturned phone call seem sort of trivial now.

We're good at creating drama, at avoiding emotional labor and most of all, at thinking small. Maybe we don't need another meeting, a longer coffee break or another hour whittling away at our stuckness.

There's never been a better opportunity to step up and make an impact, while we've got the chance. This generation, this decade, right now, there are more opportunities to connect and do art than ever before. Maybe even today.

It's pretty easy to decide to roll with the punches, to look at the enormity of natural disaster and choose to hunker down and do less. It's more important than ever, I think, to persist and make a dent in the universe instead.

We've all been offered access to so many tools, so many valuable connections, so many committed people. What an opportunity.



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marți, 30 octombrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Governor Chris Christie Strongly Praises Obama's Response to Sandy; Could Christie's Comments Tip the Election?

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:01 PM PDT

Here's a headline story including an interview on Fox news that caught me by surprise: New Jersey Chris Christie Praises Obama, Doesn't 'Give a Damn' about Election Day
The presidential candidates have canceled all campaign events on Tuesday, but Republican New Jersey Chris Christie seemed to be stumping for President Barack Obama by appearing on several networks to praise the federal response to Hurricane Sandy.

In an interview on NBC, Christie called Obama "outstanding" for expediting relief efforts. He also told MSNBC that Obama "deserves great credit. He gave me his number at the White House and told me to call him if I needed anything," Christie said.

The New Jersey governor even took his message to Fox News, saying that Obama had helped "tremendously."

"I spoke to the president three times yesterday," he explained. "He called me for the last time at midnight last night asking what he could do. I said, if you can expedite designating New Jersey as a major disaster area that that would help us to get federal money and resources in here as quickly as possible to help clean up the damage here."
Chris Christie Video



Will Christie's Comments Tip the Election?

New Jersey, Christie's home state is solidly in the Obama column. However, storm-damaged Virginia is in a virtual dead heat. Praise from Governor Christie certainly cannot hurt Obama's election chances.

Mathematically, I do not believe Romney can win if he loses either Ohio or Virginia. Romney certainly cannot win if he loses both of them.

Here is question of the day: Is this genuine praise or is Christie looking to run for president in four years? I suggest both.

Regardless, widespread perception that Obama is doing a good job in response to Sandy, fueled by gushing praise from Christie may be enough to tip Virginia into the Obama column, and the election right with it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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Japan Manufacturing PMI Falls to 18-Month Low

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 08:15 PM PDT

The Japanese economy continues to skid as evidenced by the October Japan Manufacturing PMI™
Key points

  • Output and new orders both down at sharper rates
  • Employment falls at fastest pace since July 2009
  • Average output charges pared to steepest degree since December 2009

Summary

October's PMI data indicated a further deterioration in the performance of the Japanese manufacturing sector. Orders and output both continued to fall during the month, while evidence of rising excess capacity led to a first reduction in employment for half a year. Manufacturers also intentionally cut back on their stock holdings as order books deteriorated and the outlook remained uncertain.

Production and new orders both fell at similarly marked rates during the latest survey period. Panellists reported that the car industry was a particular source of softer demand. Overseas new orders also fell during the month, the seventh successive month that a decline has been recorded.

As volumes of new orders and output fell further in October manufacturers were again able to make significant inroads into their work outstanding. Nearly a quarter of the survey panel indicated that backlogs were down in October and, with spare capacity seemingly rising, a number of companies also chose to lower their staffing levels.
I have little to add that I have not said before numerous times. The entire global economy is heading South in a major way, and Japan is in serious trouble given its monstrous debt levels.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


NY Subway May Take Weeks to Restore Service, 5 Million Affected; 80 Flooded Homes Destroyed by Fire; Stunning Flood and Fire Images

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:41 AM PDT

Hurricane Sandy has moved on but the damage remains. The following picture of Times Square posted on Gizmodo caught my eye. Fortunately, it does not look real. Lights should not be on and there would be debris everywhere.

However, the Metra chairman did say water was "literally up to the ceiling" at one downtown station, so take this image and use your imagination, adding dead rats, debris, and whatever else suits your fancy.



Bloomberg reports the New York Subway System May Take Weeks to Recover From Flooding.
Restoring service on New York subway lines that have been flooded could take weeks, said Mortimer Downey, a former MTA executive director and current board member of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority.

"From the New York viewpoint, they've got a lot of work ahead of them," Downey said in an interview. "It's going to be days and possibly weeks."

He declined to estimate what the recovery may cost because there's no precedent for the work that will need to be done.
Previous reports said the New York city subway would remain closed for 14 hours to four days.

Unprecedented Challenges

Reuters reports Sandy leaves unprecedented challenges for New York City subways
The giant storm Sandy wreaked havoc on the New York City subway system, flooding tunnels, garages and rail yards and threatening to paralyze the nation's largest mass-transit system for days.

"The New York City subway system is 108 years old, but it has never faced a disaster as devastating as what we experienced last night," Joseph Lhota, the chairman of the Metropolitan Transit Authority, said in a statement early on Tuesday.

He later said that water was "literally up to the ceiling" at one downtown station.

All seven subway tunnels running under the East River from Manhattan to Queens and Brooklyn took in water, and any resulting saltwater damage to the system's electrical components will have to be cleaned - in some cases off-site - before the system can be restored, MTA spokeswoman Deirdre Parker said on Tuesday.

At dawn, emergency crews were assessing the damage to tunnels and elevated tracks. Restoring the system is likely to be a gradual process, Parker said.

"It's really hard to say which areas will come back first," she said, adding it will likely be a combination of limited subway and bus service. "It will come back gradually."

The storm brought a record storm surge of almost 14 feet (4.2 meters) to downtown Manhattan, well above the previous record of 10 feet (3 meters) during Hurricane Donna in 1960, the National Weather Service said.
ABC Video



Link if Video does not play: Sandy Floods NYC Subway System

80 Flooded Homes Destroyed by Fire

The Huffington Post reports At least 80 Flooded Houses Destroyed By NYC Blaze.
A huge fire destroyed 80 to 100 houses in a flooded beachfront neighborhood Tuesday, forcing firefighters to undertake daring rescues and injuring three people.

More than 190 firefighters contained the blaze but were still putting out some pockets of fire more than nine hours after it erupted.

As daylight broke, neighbors walked around aimlessly through their smoke-filled Breezy Point neighborhood, which sits on the Rockaway peninsula jutting into the Atlantic Ocean. Electrical wires dangled within feet of the street.
Click on preceding link for a video and images of the fire.

The economic losses from Sandy will far exceed the physical damages. Ridership losses on the NY subway alone will be catastrophic.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Greece Coalition Splinters, Austerity Vote Delayed, PM Warns of 'Chaos'; Another Puppet Show or Is This For Real?

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 09:39 AM PDT

In Greece, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras coalition has split. The result is yet another delay in an austerity vote required for the next tranche of loans to Greece, and the PM warns of 'chaos'.
Greece's conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is at odds with the Democratic Left party, a coalition partner, which is threatening to vote against the new austerity measures unless labor reforms included in them are scrapped.

Samaras formed a coalition with the traditional rival Socialists and the Democratic Left after general elections in June. In a statement, the prime minister said he had "exhausted all the available time" to try and reach a consensus.

"The problem is not whether we (introduce) this measure or that measure. On the contrary: It is what we would do if no agreement is reached and the country is led into chaos."

Unemployment in Greece has topped 25 percent, with rapidly worsening poverty that has prompted the Democratic Left to harden its position.

"There are certain issues for us that are fundamental — like labor issues," Theodoros Margaritis, a senior member of the Democratic Left party, told private Skai television. "The dilemma is with Mr. Samaras. Does he want a left-wing party in his government or not? Does he want our consent on certain issues or does he want to proceed alone? If he wants, he may proceed alone."

Cracks in Greece's coalition government are likely to be tested late Tuesday when lawmakers are set to vote on a privatization bill. The new law would give the government broader powers to privatize public utilities, but is facing growing dissent from deputies in the Socialist party and Democratic Left.
Another Puppet Show or Is This For Real?  

Is the inevitable about to happen or is this simply another puppet show for the masses?

Having seen so many puppet shows only to see the leftist puppets succumb to warnings of chaos or worse, I simply do not know.

However, when this coalition finally does splinter to smithereens, the radical left will win the next election and promptly tell the Troika to go to hell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


670,000 Without Power in NYC; Flood Crests 13.88 Feet, Besting 1960 Record of 10.02 Feet; Wall Street Flooded

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 01:12 AM PDT

The good news for New York City is the storm crest has peaked. The bad news is the cleanup will take days, or longer, and much of the city is blacked-out.

Please consider Hurricane Sandy's Waters Flood Blacked-Out New York City.
Hurricane Sandy sent floodwater gushing into New York's five boroughs, submerging cars, tunnels and the subway system and plunging skyscrapers and neighborhoods into darkness. Two deaths were reported in Queens and more than 670,000 were without power in the region as of 11:30 p.m. local time yesterday, according to Consolidated Edison Inc.

The company cut electricity to some areas to save its equipment and a transformer exploded at a plant on 14th Street, blacking out others. New York University evacuated its Langone Medical Center when it went dark and backup systems failed.

After the storm's tide crested about 8 p.m., the East River topped its seawall in the Financial District and flowed up Wall Street in a torrent that turned avenues into canals and intersections into lakes. Flooding took over Brooklyn's Red Hook neighborhood, submerging cars to the roof, while the Gowanus Canal overflowed and tree limbs plummeted.

A flood gauge at Battery Park, at the southernmost end of Manhattan, registered at 13.88 feet as of 9:24 p.m., beating the modern record of 10.02 feet in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, the National Weather Service said.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority was investigating water entering a subway tunnel in Lower Manhattan, said Charles Seaton, spokesman for the largest U.S. transit agency, which stopped its 24-hour system for weather for only the second time in its 108-year history. There's no way to tell when the system run again, he said.

The Lincoln Tunnel was the only major crossing in and out of Manhattan by about 8:30 p.m. The Brooklyn Battery Tunnel and the Queens Midtown Tunnel both had flooding, according to Ortiz.
Anything electrical that salt water touches is likely ruined. If those subway systems were badly-flooded, there are going to be serious repercussions. We will know more Tuesday morning.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com