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Are you making a dent in the universe?
Hint: lots of random pokes in many different spots are unlikely to leave much of an impact. And hiding out is surely not going to work at all.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
GDP Miss Far Bigger Than Announced; Real GDP is 0% Using More Reasonable Deflator Posted: 27 Apr 2012 12:44 PM PDT The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.2%, down from 3.0% in the previous quarter, and below most mainstream media estimates of 2.5%. However, my friend BC notes .... The GDP deflator is reported to have averaged 1.2% annualized in the past 2 qtrs. Had the trend rate from '11 persisted, the deflator would have subtracted 2.6% annualized from real GDP, resulting in a 2-qtr. growth of real GDP of 0%. ECRI's Achuthan would appear correct that a recession were imminent instead of looking like a dummy. Rick Davis at the Consumer Metric Institutes makes a similar calculation. In their "advanced" estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.20%, down more than three-quarters of a percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. The vast bulk of the downturn was in commercial activities, with both fixed investments and inventories lowering the headline number substantially. Consumer spending on both goods and services improved slightly, and the ongoing contraction in governmental spending moderated somewhat. The BEA's bottom-line "real final sales" improved about a half-percent to an annualized growth rate of 1.61% -- hardly robust and certainly not the kind of numbers we would expect to see nearly three years into a recovery.Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives has some interesting charts is his post GDP Q1 Advance Estimate Disappoints at 2.2%. This chart shows the disturbing trends. ![]() click on chart for sharper image GDP Trends
Take a good look at the last decade. The US only managed 1.7% growth in the biggest housing boom in history followed by the biggest multi-trillion dollar global stimulus effort in world history. Three years into a recovery, growth (if you believe preposterous deflators) is a mere 2.2% but only 0% if you don't. Moreover, with parts of Europe in an outright depression, with even Germany and the UK in recession, and with China slowing significantly, the odds the US economy decouples for too much longer is now approaching zero. I think the ECRI has its recession forecast reasonably correct. However, it may take a well-deserved GDP revision (likely after the next election) to prove it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 27 Apr 2012 09:55 AM PDT Via email from Barclays Capital, Spain: Q1 unemployment rate rises; trend likely to continue into H1 2013. This morning Spain released labour market statistics for Q1. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate rose to 23.6% from 23.1% in Q4 last year (Figure 1). We think that the labour market's deterioration is likely to continue over the next 3-4 quarters. We look for unemployment to peak at nearly 26% in H1 2013, before slowly starting to decline.Depression in Spain It is difficult to know precisely when Spanish unemployment stops going up. I see no reason it cannot hit 28% or even 30%. Spanish politicians (for now) remain insanely committed to the Euro. How long the citizens remain committed to the Eurozone is another matter. When is the Breaking Point? Will the general population of Spain put up with an unemployment rate of 28%? 30%? I think not, but I do not know the precise breaking point. Whatever it is, Spain has little chance for growth prospects for a decade as long as it remains in the eurozone. Eventually will come a time when a politician will hold up a copy of the EMU treaty, declare it null and void, and the debt null and void right along with it. That politician will be elected. Spain will be better off as soon as that happens. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 27 Apr 2012 02:30 AM PDT The word of the day is plunge. Retail sales fell like a rock in Germany and fell at a record pace in France. Jobs and retail sales plunged at a record pace in Italy, and in general, did a nose-dive across the entire Eurozone German Retail Sales Plunge Into Contraction Please Consider the Markit Germany Retail PMI® Report. Fastest drop in retail sales since April 2010 as year-and-a-half run of growth comes to an end.French Retail Sales Plunge at Record Pace Please Consider the Markit France Retail PMI® Report. French retail sales fall at survey-record rate in AprilNote the absurd level of optimism by French retailers. Eurozone Retail Sales Plunge at Strongest Pace Since Late-2008 Please Consider the Markit Eurozone Retail PMI® Report. Key points: Record Job Losses, Record Retail Plunge in Italy Please Consider the Markit Italy Retail PMI® Report. Sharp decrease in retail sales leads to survey-record job lossesVindication For months I have been reading the apologists at Markit (and elsewhere) predict a short, shallow Eurozone recession. Check this snip from my April 4, 2012 post: Eurozone Composite PMI® Signals Recession Says Markit; France in Renewed Decline, German Growth Weakens, Italy and Spain Contract Further: Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:This was extremely easy to predict, yet most blew it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 26 Apr 2012 11:52 PM PDT There can be little doubt of fraudulent tax avoidance in Greece. However, the Greek solution (seize money first, then place charges and hold trials later) leaves a lot to be desired. Please consider Greece to seize money from suspected tax evaders' accounts The Greek government is to begin seizing money from the bank accounts of suspected tax evaders, Finance Minister Filippos Sachinidis told Skai TV on Thursday.More Capital Flight Coming Up Anyone with any common sense has already pulled all of their money out of Greek banks. However, the unthinking masses probably have not. This move will without a doubt cause more than a few to worry about accusations, true or false, and in the case of the latter, the illegal confiscation of money. Expect to see a further plunge in money kept at Greek banks. Also expect capital flight of another kind: human capital. With this kind of crackdown, anyone capable of leaving would be wise to leave Greece immediately. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics |
Real African Men Vs. Hollywood Stereotypes Posted: 26 Apr 2012 07:38 PM PDT ![]() In this video brought to you by Mama Hope and directed by Joe Sabia, four Kenyan men - Benard, Brian, Derrick, Gabriel - are letting you know that the typical African man is nothing like the ones portrayed on movies and TV. They said, "If people believed only what they saw in movies, they would think we are all warlords who love violence." They, like Mama Hope, are tired of the over-sensationalized, one-dimensional depictions of African men and the white savior messaging that permeates our media. They wanted to tell their own stories instead, so we handed them the mic and they made this video. Via: blameitonthevoices |
Capybaras that look like Rafael Nadal Posted: 26 Apr 2012 02:48 PM PDT It has been said more than once: There's a website for everything. Even for Capybaras that look like Rafael Nadal. The capybara is the largest rodent in the world, and Rafael Nadal is a Spanish professional tennis player, ten time grand slam winner and a former World No.1. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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