joi, 29 decembrie 2011

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Thursday, Dec. 29, 2011

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First Lady Michelle Obama walks with children past the official White House Christmas Tree in the Blue Room, Nov. 30, 2011. Mrs. Obama welcomed military families to the White House for for the first viewing of the 2011 holiday decorations. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

Counting to 10 the Google Way

Posted: 28 Dec 2011 12:17 PM PST

Posted by Dr. Pete

With the end of 2011 in sight, I thought it would be a nice time to reflect on the good old days. Remember the good old days? Back then, men were Real Men, women were Real Women, and SERPs were Real SERPs. Good, decent, God-fearing SERPs had 10 listings – no more, no less. You could count them on your calloused fingers after a hard day’s work, and you knew that all was right with the world.

Then Google got fancy, like some city boy wearing $100 pants and a man-purse. Now, decent folk everywhere are subjected to images, news, videos, and coffee shop listings, when all they want is a good, old-fashioned link. Worse yet, you can’t even count on a SERP to add up to 10. No sir, I don’t like it.

It’s getting harder and harder for SEOs to count rankings the old-fashioned way. While we need to let go of rankings as our only metric, being able to count a SERP reliably and consistently is still an important SEO task, and it seems to be getting tougher every day. I’d like to give a few examples of SERPs that don’t add up to 10, and discuss how to cope with Google’s new math.

What About the Children?!

Sadly, even the children aren’t safe from Google’s new math. Here’s a Google SERP for “Muppets” (logged out and with the “pws=0” depersonalization parameter added):

SERP for "Muppets"

Let’s say we had never seen a vertical search result before, and we just counted them the old-fashioned way. These numbers are in red. If we skipped the “Top References” section (since the headline isn’t linked), we’d end up with 13 results for this SERP.

Of course, you and I know that vertical SERPs are different, so we’d be smart enough to skip Showtimes, Videos, Images, and News, right? That count is in orange, and we'd end up with – hold on – only 8 results. So, what’s missing? Well, it looks like the video results do count – even though Google owns YouTube, those are still external links. Using the green counting method, we end up with 10 results, as expected.

What About My Friends?!

These results were depersonalized – what if I add in personalization, and with it, social signals? Surely my friends will save me from this counting conundrum! Sadly, they only add to the mess. On a search for “muppets” while logged in, I get an extra listing:

Social result (#11)

Although the logged-in SERP varies a bit from the example above, the social listing is an add-on. Even by our SEO-savvy green counting method, it’s #11. Fortunately, you can currently tell these apart by the “...shared this” indicator at the bottom, but expect social results to evolve dramatically over the next year. When counting your SERPs, trust no one.

Is Anything Safe?!

But wait, it gets weirder. Let’s look at a SERP for good, old-fashioned pizza pie. This one is also depersonalized, but it’s localized to Vero Beach, FL (I discovered this one by accident, based on the location of one of my hosting companies):

SERP for "Pizza"

Just for comparison, let’s count them the old-fashioned way (in red). If we lump in everything, we get 16 results. Obviously, we’re smarter than that, so we’ll cut out the Images and News results. That count (in orange) is 14, still 4 over our sacred 10.

The savvy SEOs among you will immediately recognize that the top results have addresses next to them – these are integrated Places results (a 7-pack, in this case). Problem solved, right? Let’s remove those Places results and, sure enough, we get (in green) – wait a minute – 7? That’s right, this page has 7 organic results.

Hold on: 2 of those Places results have Google Maps addresses and not their own URLs. Those must not be “real” results. Subtract those 2 from the orange count and we get – tada! – 12. Ok, wait a minute, I’ve got it now. Domino’s and Pizza Hut both have mini site-links – they must actually be organic results. Add those back into the green count, and we’re up to – crap – 9.

Won’t the Code Save Us?!

This counting thing isn’t turning out to be so easy after all. If we can’t tell which listings are technically “organic” (not Places or vertical) by looking at them, maybe the source code can help us. There are markers in the code, but they’re tough to tease apart. The most telling markers are currently as follows:

(1) The <h3> Wrapper

Each listing’s link is wrapped in an <h3 class=”r”> tag, but that header doesn’t seem to distinguish between Places and organic results. Even expanded site-links are wrapped in this <h3> tag, so it seems to be purely a design convention.

(2) The “cd=” Parameter

In each listing’s Google cache link, there’s a parameter called “cd=” which counts up with the listings (cd=1, cd=2, etc.). At first glance, “cd=” isn’t very reliable, because it seems to tag vertical categories on the left-hand navigation as well (“Images”, “Maps”, “Videos”, etc.).

In the example above, though, something interesting happens. The first 3 listings are tagged with cd=1, cd=2, cd=3, but then the next listing to get tagged is the Wikipedia entry, with cd=8. The rest of the listing each have a cd= parameter. This suggests that only the top 3 Places listings (in this example) are being counted the same as regular organic results. Finally, 3 + 7 = 10.

Will the Madness End?!

Sorry, but it probably won’t. Google has been experimenting mad-scientist style with the SERPs in 2011, and I only expect that to continue. We’ve got little choice but to adapt and do our best to keep metrics consistent. It’s entirely likely Google could even apply the “infinite scroll” approach used in Google Images to organic listings, killing SERP pagination as we know it.

While it’s fun to dig into the inner workings, the reality is that we need to take a broader view and stop relying only on rankings. Rankings will become tougher to measure and personalization is only going to get more aggressive. If you aren’t already training your clients to look at their organic traffic, unique keywords, organic conversion, and deeper metrics, it’s time to get started.

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Seth's Blog : "It's always been this way"

"It's always been this way"

The only standard is impermanence.

It's very easy to believe that the world we live in has always been this way.

Your ethnic group has always had a similar standing.

Technology has always permitted certain kinds of interactions and is always improving.

Real estate values always rise from decade to decade. (Until it didn't).

A job has always been the standard way to make a living.

Your chosen religion has always been practiced the way you practice it.

People in positions of authority and leverage have always had degrees from famous colleges.

Information has always been widely available.

As soon as you accept that just about everything in our created world is only a few generations old, it makes it a lot easier to deal with the fact that the assumptions we make about the future are generally wrong, and that the stress we have over change is completely wasted.'

• Email to a friend •

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Update on Brazil, BRICs
"It's a Mistake To Pursue a United States of Europe" says German Supreme Court Justice in Spiegel Interview ; Interpretation of Interview from Saxo Bank Chief Economist
European Bank-to-Bank Lending Mistrust Hits Second Consecutive High; ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion

Update on Brazil, BRICs

Posted: 28 Dec 2011 02:30 PM PST

In response to Brazil is World's 6th Largest Economy, Overtaking UK Earlier this Year. Can Brazil Overtake France by 2016? What about BRICs in General? I received a nice email from Felipe Fiel, an economist from Brazil working in the hedge fund industry for Fram Capital.

Felipe writes ...

Hi Mish, hope is all well with you. First of all I would like to congratulate you for your blog and outstanding contribution do financial observers. I´m an economist who lives in Brazil, working for the hedge fund industry.

I agree entirely with you about Brazil´s skepticism.

I would like to highlight that the way you show inflation and GDP might cause a distorted impression to your readers.

You show GDP growth quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted, without annualizing it, which is the norm for US viewers. It was running at almost 8% annualized growth before 2008 crises and even recently it grew at 3.2% in the 4 quarters before stagnating in 3Q.

For next year, even the most pessimistic projections see growth at 4.3% on average, which is more or less what is seen at GDP potential. However, I personally think we cannot growth at that rate without generating too much inflation.

Best,
Felipe Fiel

BRIC Decade Ends as Growth Peaked

According to Goldman Sachs, BRIC Decade Ends as Growth Peaked

Dec 28, 2011

In the past decade, mutual funds poured almost $70 billion into Brazil, Russia, India and China, stocks more than quadrupled gains in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the economies grew four times faster than America's.

Now Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which coined the term BRIC, says the best is over for the largest emerging markets.

BRIC funds recorded $15 billion of outflows this year as the MSCI BRIC Index sank 24 percent, EPFR Global data show. The gauge, which beat the S&P 500 by 390 percentage points from November 2001 through September 2010, has trailed the measure for five straight quarters, the longest stretch since Goldman Sachs forecast the countries would join the U.S. and Japan as the top economies by 2050.

BRIC indexes may fall another 20 percent next year, buffeted by the liquidity squeeze stemming from Europe's sovereign debt crisis, Arjuna Mahendran, the Singapore-based head of Asia investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank, which oversees about $499 billion, said in an interview. Nations such as Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey may overshadow the BRICS in the next five years as they expand from lower levels of growth, he said.

"The slowdown we're seeing in the BRICs will continue for most of the first half," Mahendran said. "Compared to the U.S., corporate profits haven't been that good as companies face higher wages, higher interest rates and currency volatility, and at best, we'll only start to see the effects of monetary policy loosening in the second half of 2012."

2011 Losses

The BSE India Sensitive Index led declines among BRIC equity gauges this year, falling 23 percent. China's Shanghai Composite Index also dropped 23 percent, while Russia's Micex retreated 18 percent and Brazil's Bovespa sank 16 percent. The 21-country MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) lost 20 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent.

The time to warn about BRICs and emerging markets was a year ago, which I did, specifically in regards to China (but also with many references to trade surplus nations and commodity producers throughout the year).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

"It's a Mistake To Pursue a United States of Europe" says German Supreme Court Justice in Spiegel Interview ; Interpretation of Interview from Saxo Bank Chief Economist

Posted: 28 Dec 2011 09:31 AM PST

Those looking for a reason for a sinking Euro and falling stock markets today just may find the answer in a Spiegel Interview with German Constitutional Court Judge Udo Di Fabio who says "It's a Mistake To Pursue a United States of Europe".

SPIEGEL: Didn't the court's decision on the Lisbon Treaty in effect place strict limits on further European integration by banning the transfer of important political powers from Germany to the EU?

Di Fabio: The decision on the Lisbon Treaty pinpoints the sensitive areas, such as budgetary autonomy. Furthermore, in the euro-zone bailout ruling, issued on Sept. 7 of this year, the court made it clear once again that this particularly concerns the parliament's power of disposition over revenue and expenditure.

SPIEGEL: But this is precisely the aim of the fiscal union to control the debt crisis. If the national budget falls under the control of the European Commission, the next Constitutional Court veto will be just around the corner.

Di Fabio: Not necessarily. Since no politician really intends to transfer their power of disposition over the substance of the national budget at an EU level, there is no insurmountable obstacle.

SPIEGEL: Does it concern the substance when a Brussels fiscal commissioner says to the German parliament, the Bundestag: You're not allowed to pass this budget?

Di Fabio: If Brussels only more closely supervises whether the member states are adhering to the agreements that they have concluded, then this does not constitute an infringement on their identity. Anyone who voluntarily agrees to something has to accept that they will be checked to ensure that this contractual obligation is fulfilled. Such a veto could come from Karlsruhe, however, if there were a violation of the new debt brake (an amendment to Germany's constitution that requires the government to balance its budget each year by 2016).

SPIEGEL: The president of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg nonetheless recently said that he's not happy to hear that Karlsruhe wants to have the last word.

Di Fabio: I'm also unhappy to hear certain things, but I accept them.

SPIEGEL: How long can this really work, this coexistence of authorities to adjudicate in Europe?

Di Fabio: As long as we don't have a United States of Europe, we will continue to have a polity that has a certain network character.

SPIEGEL: Wouldn't it be easier to form a democratic United States of Europe with separation of powers?

Di Fabio: I think it is a mistake to pursue a United States of Europe model. There is no ideal solution on earth, nor is there one that dates back to the 19th century. The supposed universal remedy of a United States of Europe could cause even greater conflicts than the current union with its many weights and counterweights that allow for a balance.

Interpretation From Saxo Bank

Via email Steek Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank in Denmark writes ...

This was a very open and interesting interview. The "killer stuff" is in the late part of the interview. Here are my notes:

Di Fabio does not see Constitutional Court and Basic Law as Euro unfriendly, actually states the opposite

Euro-bonds are "illegal" in his view (p.5 top)

Wrong to pursue United States of Europe – you need intra- government coordination but also strong individual states – not one without the other

No state can save the world on its own!

Europe…a "security construction" – (the good old excuse for slow non-working EU)

EY SENTENCE (p.2 top) : "….. Anyone who voluntarily agrees to something has to accept they will be checked to ensure that this contractual obligation is fulfilled. Such a veto could come from Karlsruhe, however, were a violation of the new debt brake (an amendment to Germany's constitution that requires the government to balance its budget each year by 2016!)

The last sentence – extremely critical – I must admit I did not know this. However, knowing this, Germany's position makes sense! – They need "order" before anything and it also makes their compromise with France less "solid" as this exercise of buying time will end by 2012/13 – where they need to "structurally" get their budget down.

Germany looks to have weak growth in 2012 – and government is spending more money not tightening. However, Germany CAN'T stimulate when they need to be at ZERO deficit by 2016.

NOTE to ALL politicians – this is major, major, major statement – the new RULE is to BALANCE by LAW your fiscal imbalances.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

European Bank-to-Bank Lending Mistrust Hits Second Consecutive High; ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion

Posted: 28 Dec 2011 02:04 AM PST

Bond action in the Eurozone has modestly picked up (yields steady or falling) since the ECB's 3-Year LTRO program - Long Term Refinance Operation. However, European banks still do not trust each other, not even for overnight lending.

Instead, banks park all available funds with the ECB, as noted by the Wall Street Journal in Deposits at ECB Hit Record High.

Use of the European Central Bank's overnight deposit facility hit the second all-time high in a row Tuesday as euro area banks increased the amount of cash they park at the central bank's safe haven, ECB data showed Wednesday.

Banks parked €452.034 billion ($589.72 billion) at the ECB, up from €411.813 billion the previous day. The high level reflects prevailing distrust among banks which prefer using the ECB's facility rather than lending to each other.

The increase in deposits follows the ECB's first-ever three-year liquidity tender last week in which it allocated nearly half a trillion euros to more than 500 banks.

The ECB also said banks borrowed €6.225 billion via its overnight lending facility, up from €6.131 billion the previous day. When markets are functioning properly, banks use the facility to the tune of a few hundred million euros overnight.

The "first-ever three-year liquidity tender" offer cited by the Wall Street Journal is the 3-year LTRO that I mentioned at the top.

ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion

Gordon Long put out an outstanding report on his website on why the ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion. I picked up the link from Zero Hedge. Following are a few snips:

Here is the stark reality of what forced the ECB to offer unprecedented three year loans at absurd rates and most alarmingly, the acceptance of collateral that no other financial institutions will accept. The ECB has sacrificed its balance sheet in yet another EU "kick at the can".

1. COLLATERAL CONTAGION: There is a cascading Collateral Contagion crisis in which secured lending, based on sound assets, has replaced unsecured lending based on future expected cash flows.

2. WHOLESALE LENDING: Wholesale bank lending, which is a unique cornerstone of European banking, has completely frozen since the failure of Dexia and US Money Market Funds will no longer risk short term capital having learned their lesson in 2008.

3. BANK RUNS: Bank Runs are quietly and insidiously occurring throughout the peripheral EU countries as corporate and private depositors seek safe havens for their cash holdings.
...
WHOLESALE LENDING

There are approximately $55T of banking assets in the EU. This compares to only $13T in the US. Bank Assets in the EU are 4 times as large as the US.

In the US, debt held by the bank is smaller because retail deposits are a primary source of funds. EU banks use wholesale lending and, as a consequence, the debt held by banks is closer to 80% versus less than 20% by US banks.

Wholesale bank lending in the EU approximates $30T versus only $3T in the US, a 10 X differential.

Wholesale lending is fundamentally borrowing from money market funds and other very short term, unsecured instruments. The banks borrow short and lend long. It all works until short term money gets scarce or expensive. Both have occurred in the EU and this recently placed DEXIA into bankruptcy, forcing them to be taken over by the Belgium and French governments. The unsecured bond market fundamentally closed in the EU in Q3 2011, as fears mounted that an EU solution was not forthcoming.

Assuming $30T of loans is spread over three years, EU banks have a requirement for $800B / Month of rollover financing for wholesale lending outstanding.

Where is this money going to come from? No one is waiting around to find out as there will be cascading counterparty failures soon surfacing. Banking money in Europe is fleeing to custodial and official accounts of the ECB, the US Federal Reserve and any other central Bank willing to accept their cash.

Excerpts do not do the article full justice. It's well worth a read in entirety.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

miercuri, 28 decembrie 2011

Damn Cool Pics

3D Fingernail Gun Art
The Most Popular TV Shows Ever [Infographic]
Red Panda Becomes Surprise House Guest In China
Cats Celebrating Christmas
Neglected Star Wars Characters
History of the Batman Suit [infographic]

3D Fingernail Gun Art

Posted: 28 Dec 2011 01:02 PM PST

For the cover of London-based magazine SuperSuper!, Laurent Theopane Bertrand of The Theophany created the below awesome 3D fingernail gun art.

Source: laughingsquid

Posted: 28 Dec 2011 12:50 PM PST

Visualization of the top television shows since the 1950s. The IG explains why they were popular, and TV technologies that made them great.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Source: direct.tv

Red Panda Becomes Surprise House Guest In China

Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:43 PM PST

A rare red panda became a surprise house guest just before Christmas for one family in the Chinese city of Leshan. The red panda turned up at the home of a Chinese family in the suburbs of Leshan, a city located in southwest China's Sichuan Province, last week.

"We were having a meal outside our home and saw it climbing down the slope toward us. We approached it slowly, leaving the door of our house open, and then the red panda suddenly rushed inside," said the homeowner.

Source: telegraph

Cats Celebrating Christmas

Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:14 PM PST

Christmas is a time of cats. OK, that's not strictly accurate, but BuzzFeed has a great collection of pictures of kitties celebrating Christmas. From cats climbing Christmas trees to kittens playing with presents, the pictures are all simply adorable.

Neglected Star Wars Characters

Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:31 PM PST

Tired of Darth Vader, Yoda, Luke and Han hogging all the spotlight? So was artist Elliott Quince who created this art series dubbed Plasticine Tattooine to bring the depressed non-Skywalkers back into the public eye.

History of the Batman Suit [infographic]

Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:11 PM PST

When you've been around for over 70 years, chances are you've made your fair share of fashion statements. As a great new infographic by Screenrant shows, every "significant" Batsuit from Batman's 1939 debut through the present, in comic books, movies, TV, video games, and even "Batman Live."

Source: screenrant

joi, 29 decembrie 2011

Tell Us What You Think

Counting to 10 the Google Way

Counting to 10 the Google Way

What About the Children?!

What About My Friends?!

Is Anything Safe?!

Won’t the Code Save Us?!

(1) The <h3> Wrapper

(2) The “cd=” Parameter

Will the Madness End?!

Seth's Blog : "It's always been this way"

"It's always been this way"

More Recent Articles

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

miercuri, 28 decembrie 2011

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

joi, 29 decembrie 2011

What About the Children?!

What About My Friends?!

Is Anything Safe?!

Won’t the Code Save Us?!

(1) The <h3> Wrapper

(2) The “cd=” Parameter

Will the Madness End?!

More Recent Articles

miercuri, 28 decembrie 2011

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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