vineri, 7 decembrie 2012

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


Top 10 free video sharing sites for 2013

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 10:57 PM PST

What is a video sharing website? Video sharing website is an online platform where a user can upload and share the videos with the other users. These video sharing websites give chance to an amateur video creator to share his work with thousands and lakhs of people without any investment....
Read more »

Discovering Local Citation Opportunities - Whiteboard Friday

Discovering Local Citation Opportunities - Whiteboard Friday


Discovering Local Citation Opportunities - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 06:52 PM PST

Posted by randfish

Local SEO has become increasingly important for all business, but small businesses are affected the most. As the percentage of mobile searches increases, Google's algorithm begins to assume that more and more of them have local intent.

This week, Rand discusses Local Citation and the best ways to utilize the resources out there for your local SEO. He also mentions our new BFFs, GetListed.org! If you haven't already gone in to claim your business' profiles, do that now (or after the video).

p.s. I strongly recommend checking out the Best Sources for Local Citations by City and by Category on GetListed, as well!



Video Transcription

"Hi, everyone, and welcome to this edition of Whiteboard Friday. Today we're talking about discovering local citation opportunities. So, as many of you might be aware, we are tremendously excited here at SEOmoz to welcome David Mihm and GetListed.org into the family. We're excited for the future of what those tools and resources are going to be. There's already some fantastic information that I urge you to check out on David's site and on GetListed.org.

But I wanted to get really specific today and talk about the local citations themselves. So some of you are probably aware of what goes into local and map style data. Local and maps data is really important because, as you're probably aware - you might have to follow me over here - the search results, if I do a query in here, there's oftentimes an organic set of results and then what we sort of call the "Local OneBox".

The Local OneBox will have some results that are like, "A, B, C, D", and they'll line up to a map that's over here on the right-hand side. Sometimes these can kind of dominate the results. Depending on where you are, especially if you're on a mobile phone, Google is going to assume that a lot of your queries have a local intent behind them.

Many queries that are done from the desktop now are assumed to have local intent, and certainly anytime you add a modifier - a city name, an address, a ZIP code, those kinds of things - Google is going to think local intent. This means those local results can dominate a lot of search queries, and a ton of searches today are already resulting in a lot of these local types of listings.

Now, local listings use a different algorithm, and that different algorithm is made up by a number of different things: structured and unstructured citations, which are the big important ones we're going to be talking about today, as well as things like reviews, the geography, your business name, links that come into your site. Links sort of are varied in importance as to how much they matter for local. They matter somewhat. We're not exactly sure quite how much, but it's not zero. These determine your local ranking in the five-pack, three-pack, seven-pack, eight-pack, whatever it is, and the map rankings.

There's one interesting thing that I want to note about this before we get specifically into citations, which is remember that this data all applies to one listing if you're doing it right. A lot of the time people are doing it wrong.

So I got to spend my morning here at SEOmoz on a help team working with Joel. One of the queries we answered through the help ticketing system was someone who had some challenges because her business name down in South Florida was in several different locations, or was listed in Google and in Bing with several different locations, incorrect addresses, incorrect ZIP code, all this type of stuff.

That creates a lot of problems, because Google can't identify and say, "Aha, this all applies to this." It's, "Oh, well maybe some of these structured citations are for this, and then these are the structured citations are for that, and I think this review applies to that and not to this one." You don't want that. You want everything going all to one place. Just like with classic SEO, you want everything to be on one domain, hopefully one sub-domain, and in sub-folders.

Some citation tactics, you need to find citations, both structured and unstructured citations, structured citations being the ones that are very formalized, that Google is sort of sucking in and recognizing as formal addresses, and unstructured being more of the sort of casual mentions and references to a business location. Sometimes they might include an address detail or a phone number detail. But they're usually not in that clean sort of name, address, phone number, location, all that type of stuff. They don't have the schema.org markup. They're not coming from necessarily a trusted local citation provider, something like that, but still very important. In fact, unstructured citations oftentimes, David will tell me, are the factor that's pushing a ranking over the edge and letting it appear in the maps pack or letting it rank higher.

So I want you to start with some competitive queries. This is the obvious one, but search for businesses that are ranking next to yours. You want to be searching for their name and/or the address. For example, if I were searching for SEOmoz, I might search for SEOmoz itself, minus site:SEOmoz.org. I might also search for 119 Pine Street #400, 119 Pine Street, and SEOmoz Seattle, those kinds of things.

I want to do this off their website. So I'd probably add the query string minus site:SEOmoz.org, so as not to get overwhelmed with results from the domain that I'm reference checking against. This will show you lots of places where that site, where that local business is listed.

SEOmoz is obviously not a great example because we're a web business, so we're all over the web. But for a local business, this type of query can work really well.

Also, look at reviews from around the web. That section appears on the Google+ local page. So if you pull up the Google+ local listing for any local small business, you will see, sort of around the middle before you get to the reviews, it will show you this, "Reviews from Around the Web." It'll show you a few different sources, sometimes three, sometimes four.

You can also find a few that are sometimes different in the "More Reviews" section, which is on the knowledge base OneBox. So that would be if I perform a search query for, say, if you search for David Mihm, you'll actually see a nice photo of him up here. Then you'll see "More Reviews," and it'll say places like Yelp or CitySearch or those types of things. Check both of those. They can show you places where your competition is listed, where you might not have a listing, great citation source.

Events, press, bios, and beyond, these are going to be very unstructured reviews typically. But anytime your business or yourself are going to be mentioned anywhere around the web, on some other website, you should try to employ your full address, phone, and business name. So this means if I knew that SEOmoz were in a very competitive battle for local rankings, I probably would have my bio say this type of stuff.

I would make sure that on social sites, even if there's not a formal address field, that I have some information. So I wouldn't just say SEOmoz and what we do. I would say, "I work at SEOmoz. Here's the address and the phone number." I would include both of those in the description or whatever of where I work.

Other places you can do this - job ads, anytime you're putting out a job ad, press releases, events that you host or sponsor. Places where you make a charitable contribution will often have a listing, and you can get that listing to include your address and phone number. If you can't get both, you can go for the phone number or just the address.

This is a lot like link building. You want the link to be in a certain way. You want it to point to a particular page. You'd like that link to contain certain anchor text, and for local the citation is all about connecting up the business information properly as it appears.

Last tip for this, use broad categories. One of the things that I see people doing in local a lot of times is they get very obsessed with, "Well, I'm a certain type of tax attorney, and here are the five people ranking against me. Here's where they have their citations, and I'm done."

But if you can broaden that out to say things like, "I'm not just going to query tax attorneys. I'm going to look for attorneys, and I'm going to look for lawyers. I'm going to find all the listing sources for all the folks in there. I'm also going to broaden out by not just looking at who's appearing in that little OneBox. I'm going to click down to 'More Results' from the maps page and keep scrolling down, keep finding more and more places and see where they're listed using the competitive searching systems."

You can also run broad searches for the query that you're looking for plus city name. So, for example, things like, I might say, "tax attorney Seattle", "attorney Seattle", "lawyer Seattle", and then I'd look at all the places that are listing. Those can be opportunities as well for either structured or unstructured citations that can help move your rankings up.

When you do this, dig into the far back of the results. A lot of the time, I see that the top 20 include a lot of places where everyone is mentioned. But 50, 60, 70 results in, I'm still finding gold in terms of citation opportunities.

All right, everyone. I hope you've enjoyed this edition of Whiteboard Friday. I hope you'll check out GetListed, which is a fantastic tool. It can help you with some of this stuff and certainly with your local listings, and I hope you have good luck getting your citations and your reviews in order. Thanks everyone. Take care."

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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So, You Want to Know About Foreign Language SEO? Mozinar Q&A

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 03:57 AM PST

Posted by Zeph Snapp

I was grateful for the opportunity to do a Mozinar about foreign language SEO. There were a ton of questions from viewers, and while I was able to get to most of them, there were a few topics that I wasn’t able to cover in the detail they deserved.

There has been a lot of talk lately about what SEO is, and what it will become. One of the main things that SEOs have to think about every day is opportunity cost. We’ve also started looking at the world through a long-term lens rather than just short term wins (although quick wins are always great). Foreign language SEO plays on both sides of the field. You have to think long-term, but there are certainly opportunities for quick wins. Out of the top ten economies in the world today, only two of them are English-dominant. None of the primarily Spanish-speaking countries rank, but if you combine them, the Spanish speaking world would be firmly entrenched in the number five spot.

Online, the tendencies are the same. Spanish is in third place as far as Internet languages, and while English is still in first, other languages are gaining fast. Unfortunately for foreign language SEO, over 50% of the web is in English. This means that foreign language SERP’s are serving inferior results. There are massive opportunities for those brave enough to go after them, and you don’t necessarily have to go overseas… 

 The Hispanic Market has over 1 trillion dollars in purchasing power

The Spanish-speaking market in the US is huge. Obviously not all Hispanics prefer Spanish, but there are a fair amount that do. While translating your website is not a cure-all, it is certainly a start.

Now, let's dive into those Mozinar Q&A questions! 

1. What is the best way to see if your client has a market for Spanish or another language?

I provided a quick explanation of how to do this in the webinar, but let's break it down again:

  • Take your top five converting keywords and drop them into Google Translate.
  • Take the translated terms and put them into the Google Keyword Tool.
  • Make sure to set up exact match, as well as the language and country settings. I also like to ask that it only return results that are related to my terms. If I don’t get results with searches, I can always run it again without that filter.
  • See if the numbers justify going after that market.

If you are looking to further prove your case, you can search Twitter and bios for the top terms using Followerwonk, check the terms on Facebook to see if there are fan pages or groups, and check for related groups on LinkedIn. Because social is a big part of the process, I highly recommend this option. Always over-deliver when building a case!

In-depth foreign language keyword research is no walk in the park, but check out this post for some tips primarilty on Spanish keyword research if you are interested.

2. What patterns do you see that differentiate users in Spanish vs. those in English as it relates to SEO?

This is a HUGE question deserving of its own presentation, but the short answer is that you first have to think about how different Spanish speakers are unique in and of themselves.  As it relates to SEO, these are the main differences that I see:

  • We use social for recommendations.
  • Searcher intent is different. We see more informational queries than transactional. This is not a universal truth, but simply our experience.
  • Brand loyalty is high. If someone has a good experience with a company, they are very likely to be a repeat customer, and in many cases recommend the service or product to friends and family.
  • Mobile is growing at a tremendous rate. Make sure that your website is ready for that.

3. Do you recommend a startup company to have a multi-language site right away when it’s building its main site?

That depends on the size of your market and whether or not you have the budget. I usually tell startups to figure out how to serve the market in their own language before trying to get customers from other countries. The exception, of course, is if your native language has few speakers or is not in need of the product. Then it is best to start with English and build from there.

4. If you can’t provide foreign language support, should you target foreign language SEO?

The short answer is no, but that doesn’t mean you can’t scale support slowly. In fact, with these types of customers, we always offer to set up a phone line and answer their calls for the first couple of months. That way the person who translated the website and is familiar with the product is also the one answering emails, chats, and phone calls. Call centers are unfortunately having a tough time right now, so if you need help in languages that are difficult to support, you can get cheap, temporary help while you figure it out.

5. Do you recommend translating as much of your pages as possible, including every product page? Is "literal translation" a good idea?

The plan is always to make your international visitor feel welcome, and if you’ve proven the concept and gotten buy-in, then yes. However, this is for UX reasons just as much as SEO. Can you imagine finding a site that sells stuff you really like, but once you get to their product pages, the descriptions are suddenly in Russian? You would be suspicious, and would probably leave the site. As AJ Kohn once said to me, “If the customer is confused, the answer is always 'No.'”

Regarding literal translation, I’m not a fan. Even when you have highly technical product specifications, there is something lost. 

Terrible Spanish Translation

The above image is an example of literal translation gone wrong. Skateboard is translated as “knee roofing.” When you do this, you immediately lose the trust of the person browsing your site, not to mention that they will probably make fun of you on social media platforms.

6. Will your translated website get picked up as duplicate content?

Search engines are much smarter than people give them credit for. If the content is translated correctly, enough of the information should change so that most search engines will understand the difference between the two pages. However, the <hreflang> is a good tool for avoiding confusion and giving the search engine a better idea of your intended language.

7. With so many dialects of Spanish, which do you suggest to translate into?

That depends a great deal on your market, and is why keyword research is so important. I always suggest that unless you already have internal data informing your decision, do your research across multiple markets. This will allow you to make the right choice.

8. How do you deal with accents?

This opens up a huge can of worms. Through conducting Spanish keyword research, it is obvious that there are significant differences in keyword volume between terms with and without accents. Generally speaking, keywords without accents receive more traffic. This makes sense because when you are typing in the search bar, you aren’t concerned with how you are addressing someone, and for 99.9% of the queries, the meaning of the word doesn’t change.

This means that searcher intent is the same, but what about the results? We haven’t done extensive tests on this (believe me, we will), but the SERP’s do change:

Spanish language SERP's with and without Accents

Now, according to the Google Adwords tool, if you put them in as exact match, the version with the accent has not even 10% the number of searches as when you don’t use the accent. But when you go to broad match, they show up as identical.

The way we deal with this divide is the following:

  • Don’t put accents in the URL (for Spanish).  This is a surprisingly difficult rule that we stick to. I’m about to do a study on this subject for Eastern European languages, but if supporting/refuting data already exists, please share it in the comments.
  • Don’t use accents in the metadata because of the query. Because the priority is to rank for the keyword phrase without the accent, we want to indicate to the search engine that we are optimized for this phrase. Co-citations notwithstanding, we’ve found this strategy to be effective.
  • Use the grammatically correct phrase on the page itself (including the H1 tag).  At this point, we want to make sure that the person arriving on this page knows that we actually have the ability to write well.  We are obviously still concerned about optimization, but once someone is here, we want them to convert.  Writing correctly leads to higher conversions.

9. What is the best way to change an English site to support multiple languages? What framework or technologies can you recommend?

My philosophy is always that where there is a will, there is a way. I've never been in a situation where I had to tell a client “do it this way or else.” The most notable exception being that using a CMS makes translation much simpler. 

10. Can you explain best practice related to domain structure if company is in the US, but want to target the Hispanic market? 

For this type of campaign, assuming that you are focusing on Spanish speakers first, you want to go with subdirectories. That means you should structure your pages in the following way:

www.yourwebsite.com/es/spanishproductname

This will pass along some of the authority that you have already built into your site, rather than forcing you to start over from scratch.

11. Can you comment on the usage of separate domain TLDs corresponding to different locales/localizations? Is there some sort of canonicalization process on a domain level? 

Let’s say that you are an international organization that plans on selling widgets in both Mexico and Guatemala. Since they are both in Spanish, and the dialects are pretty similar, chances are that you are going to serve the same content to both. In this case, you would want to use the canonical tag to indicate to Google that while these pages have the same content, they are aimed at different audiences.

12. Can you explain more about registering a domain in a foreign country, and should you set up hosting there?

Buying a domain for another country is easy. Almost any company that you can buy domains from will do it for you. Hosting, however, is a different matter. Finding a reliable hosting company, especially when you are expecting lots of traffic, can be difficult.

The good news is that you don’t have to find a different hosting company in every situation. The location of where a website is hosted is no longer a high priority for Google, as long as you have the correct ccTLD. However, if you are targeting China or Russia, Baidu and Yandex do consider it important that your site be hosted in the targeted country. 

Because I haven’t personally worked in either of those markets (yet), I can’t make a recommendation for providers.

13. What activities will help you promote a Spanish language website?

It’s no different from a site written in English. What I can tell you is that in Latin America, we use social media and mobile technology at a higher rate than in the US. Also, in order for a customer to purchase a product, you will need to establish trust. Because eCommerce is relatively new, do everything you can to show the potential customer that you are the real deal.

14. What about links from websites in other languages and from other countries or regions? How important is relevance in that content, and should the anchor text be in the target language or that of the website that is doing the linking?

Relevance is always important. I’m going to share a little secret about how I select link targets: if it can send qualified traffic to my client’s site, then I want it. If it can’t, then I don’t care. At the end of the day, the goal is not just to increase traffic, it is to increase conversions. 

Of course, there are situations where relevance is less important. If the New York Times wants to link to a client of mine, I’m not going to say, “Don’t link from the Culture page, link from the Business page.” I’m just going to say, "Thanks!"

As far as anchor text language, in most cases the best anchor text is going to be branded, right? At that point, if your links are being built organically, the language that the anchor text is in doesn’t matter. 

15. What tools do you recommend for targeting Hispanics outside the US? What do you use for Link Building?

Your brain. (Credit, @ipullrank)

I know that seems pithy and not particularly helpful, but the fact is that there are very few useful tools that are specific to the Spanish language market. As a result, you end up using many of the same tools as you would in English. I’m a fan of the SEOmoz suite for on page work, I like Buzzstream for keeping track of relationships, and Trello for project management.

For link building, many of the tools aren’t going to be nearly as helpful in other languages as they are in English. This means that you have to be more creative in your approach. I use Rapportive and Boomerang for outreach, but the main thing that helps me is being extremely persistent (sometimes I have to talk to the same person 6-7 times in order to get a link/guest post opportunity).

Finally, I use social media as a way to create a relationship out of thin air. You’d be surprised how easy it is to create ego-bait and figure out what people actually want by following them on Twitter or connecting with them on LinkedIn.

My team has also been building some tools internally, and are thinking about releasing some of them soon. If we were to do, what tools would you find most interesting? Please answer in the comments.

 

Well, Mozzers, there you have it! Thanks for reading, and feel free to leave your thoughts or ideas in the comments below.


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Photo of the Day: In Step on the Colonnade

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, December 7, 2012
 
Photo of the Day: In Step on the Colonnade

President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama walk along the Colonnade of the White House, Dec. 6, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama walk along the Colonnade of the White House, Dec. 6, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

West Wing Week: 12/07/12 or "I Have To Pinch Myself"

This week, the President visited a toy factory, hosted Kennedy Center Honorees, held the 2012 White House Tribal Nations Conference, welcomed the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, answered questions live on twitter, spoke on National Security achievements, visited a family who had written the White House, and lit the National Christmas Tree.

Watch this edition of West Wing Week.

.West Wing Week: 12/07/12 or "I Have To Pinch Myself"

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

The Employment Situation in November
While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Tiffany Shared What $2,000 Meant to Her ... and the President Stopped by to Talk About It
Yesterday, President Obama visited one of the 114 million American families who would see their taxes go up next year if Congress fails to extend the middle-class tax cuts.

Hispanic-American Families Just Can't Afford Tax Increases
If Congress fails to act, the median Hispanic family of four would see their income taxes rise by $2,200. An astounding 99 percent of Hispanic families will be affected.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

11:45 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

12:20 PM: The President signs the Child Protection Act of 2012

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Seth's Blog : Too simple

 

Too simple

If the explanations you're demanding for what works aren't working, perhaps it's because you're avoiding nuance in exchange for simplicity.

It would take Lee Clow far more than five minutes to explain how to design an ad that works. Clive Davis didn't have the words to tell you what would make a hit record. Even the ostensibly simple food of Alice Waters can't be easily copied by an amateur.

And yet your boss keeps asking you to explain your whole plan in three Powerpoint slides.

The VC who allocates one minute to understand why your business will work has done everyone no favors. The blog reader who clicks away after a paragraph wasted his time visiting at all. 

Skip the complicated, time-consuming part at your own risk. The cycle of test and failure works largely because it exposes us to nuance.

If it were obvious, everyone would do it. Wait, that's too simple. How about this: Nuance and subtlety aren't the exception in changing human behavior. They're the norm.



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joi, 6 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Small Business Owners' Hiring Intent Plunges to 2008 Lows; Don't Blame Sandy or Fiscal Cliff

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 09:11 PM PST

A Gallup random dial poll of 607 small businesses conducted November 12-16 2012 asked the question "Over the next 12 months, do you expect the overall number of job positions at your company to increase a lot, increase a little, stay the same, decrease a little, or decrease a lot?"

The net survey results show Small-Business Owners' Hiring Intentions Plunge.
U.S. small-business owners expect to add fewer net new jobs over the next 12 months than at any time since the depths of the 2008-2009 recession, according to this November's Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey. Small-business owners' net hiring intentions for the next 12 months plunged to -4 in November, down from +10 in July and matching the previous record low recorded by the Wells Fargo/Small Business Index of -4 in November 2008.



Historically, net hiring intentions have tended to be very positive, with small-business owners expecting to grow and hire more new employees than they will let go over the next 12 months. In good economic years, net hiring intentions have been in the double-digits. This has not been the case since the recession and financial crisis in 2008-2009 with net hiring intentions reaching a low of -4 in November 2008. There was considerable improvement in small-business owners' hiring expectations during much of 2012, prior to the recent November plunge, but now expectations have deteriorated to tie the low recorded in 2008.



In November, 21% of owners say they expect to decrease jobs at their companies over the next 12 months, the most recorded on this measure since the inception of the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index in August 2003. At the same time, 17% of small-business owners say they expect to increase the number of jobs or positions at their companies, down from 20% in July of this year and the lowest level measured since November 2011.

Owners' Net Hiring Down Over Past 12 Months

In addition to asking about future hiring intentions, the survey also asks small-business owners to report on hiring over the past 12 months. In November, more small-business owners reported decreasing the number of employees (26%) than increasing (14%), resulting in a net hiring score of -12. That is down from -7 in July and -9 in the prior three quarterly measurements. Net hiring over the past 12 months is about where it was in July 2011, at -11. This lack of improvement in small-business owners' self-reported hiring helps explain why too few new jobs have been created during much of 2012 to significantly lower the U.S. unemployment rate.

Implications

That net hiring expectations at the nation's small businesses have declined to levels last seen in late 2008 is reason for concern. Such low net hiring expectations were followed by massive layoffs in early 2009. While a repeat of that experience seems unlikely in 2013, there is the potential for a serious decline in jobs early next year if small-business owners' hiring intentions do not improve.

Whether the pessimism of the nation's small-business owners is due to the fiscal cliff, Superstorm Sandy, the election, or some combination of these factors, the U.S. economy remains weak and unemployment remains high from a historical perspective. A further sharp increase in small-business layoffs, resulting in higher unemployment on top of the current economic conditions, could turn today's slow growing U.S. economy into something worse.
Not Sandy, Not Fiscal Cliff

It is difficult to blame this on the fiscal cliff, and even more difficult to pin this on Sandy. More than likely, the poor net result is primarily the result of a clear slowdown in the economy (lack of customers).

I believe the US is back in recession and so does the ECRI.

On top of deteriorating economic conditions, also factor in the election and Obamacare.

Obamacare Discussion


No Election Relief

I suspect a majority of small business owners are Republican, and most Republicans seemed to believe Romney would win. Certainly any businesses expecting election relief from Obamacare were mistaken.

It would have been interesting if Gallup asked "why?" to those who intended to hire less.

Regardless of "why?" it makes perfect sense for businesses to cut back if the economy is slowing, and indeed it is.

Manufacturing leads the way (see ISM Manufacturing in Contraction; Expect Conditions to Worsen), and services will follow sooner rather than later.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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France Unemployment Rate Hits 10.3%, Youth Unemployment at Record High 24.9%; New Business Activity Plunges

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 03:38 PM PST

President Francois Hollande's economically insane policy "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" continues to reap negative rewards.

Reuters reports French jobless rate hits 10.3 pct, highest in 13 years
France's unemployment rate rose to 10.3 percent in the third quarter of 2012, its highest since the third quarter of 1999, from 10.2 percent in the previous quarter, data published by national statistics office INSEE showed on Thursday.

Youth unemployment rose more markedly, with the jobless rate edging up to 24.9 percent, from 23.6 percent, among people under 25 years old. That was higher than any quarter on records going back to the start of 1996.

On the non-ILO measure issued by the Labour Ministry, the picture is even bleaker, with October data showing mainland jobless totals at 3.1 million, the highest in 14 years.

Francois Hollande, who took over in May as France's first Socialist president in 17 years, has promised to reverse the upward trend by the end of 2013.
How high will unemployment rise before it reverses as Hollande promises?

While pondering that question, please note the Markit France Services PMI® shows new business falls at sharpest rate since April 2009.
Summary

French service providers reported another decrease in business activity during November. Although the slowest in three months, the rate of contraction was solid. Underlying the drop in activity was a marked and accelerated contraction of new business. Backlogs of work and employment both decreased, albeit at weaker rates.



Composite data showed that business activity across the French private sector fell for the ninth month running in November. The rate of contraction remained considerable, despite easing to the slowest in three months.

The level of new business placed with service providers in France decreased for the eighth month running in November. The rate of contraction was substantial, having accelerated to the sharpest since April 2009. Panel members commented that general market conditions remained tough, with clients cancelling projects and making fewer invitations to tender.

With manufacturers also registering a steep (albeit slower) decline in new orders, overall new business across the French private sector continued to contract at a marked pace in November.
Expect a plunge in GDP and further plunge in employment to catch up to the PMI plunge in the above chart.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Senator Jim DeMint, Republican Tea Party Activist, Resigns From Senate; DeMint Seeks to "Harden the Jello"

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:35 AM PST

Following the dismal results of Republicans in the last election, and amidst all the Republican infighting over the fiscal cliff comes startling news DeMint resigns from Senate to run Heritage Foundation.
Sen. Jim DeMint said Thursday he'll resign from the Senate to go run the Heritage Foundation, the powerhouse conservative think tank that dominates Republican policy circles.

"It's been an honor to serve the people of South Carolina in United States Senate for the past eight years, but now it's time for me to pass the torch to someone else and take on a new role in the fight for America's future," Mr. DeMint said in a statement announcing the news.

He will step down from the Senate in January and will take over for Heritage President Edwin J. Feulner in April.

Mr. DeMint, a tea party favorite who became a major electoral force in the 2010 elections, helping promote tea party candidates in primaries against establishment GOP favorites, said he's ready to shift to the policy arena.

He said he never intended for the Senate to be a career for him. He previously served six years in the House and won election to the Senate in 2004 and re-election in 2010.
South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, a Republican will get to appoint a replacement so the seat will remain in Republican hands.

Video



DeMint: "I've decided to join the Heritatage Foundation at a time when the conservative movement needs strong leadership in the battle of ideas"

DeMint Seeks to "Harden the Jello"

The Financial Times has some interesting comments in DeMint resigns from US Senate.
Mr DeMint's departure comes amid difficult budget negotiations over the US fiscal cliff, $600bn worth of tax increases and spending cuts that are triggered on January 1 unless the White House and Republicans can reach a deal.

Mr DeMint sharply criticised the Republican leadership in Congress this week for its budget proposal to Mr Obama offering extra tax revenues, even though they are gained through the close of loopholes rather than by lifting rates.

It is not the only reason why many Republicans may be happy to see the back of Mr DeMint, who angered colleagues in the last two elections by backing and funding extremely conservative candidates to run for the Senate, with disastrous results.

In both 2010 and 2012, Republicans failed to gain control of the Senate when they were well positioned to win, in large part because a number of DeMint-backed candidates were judged by voters to be outside the mainstream.

In an interview with the Financial Times last year, Mr DeMint said his main focus was getting more staunch conservatives into the Senate to harden the "jello" in the middle of Republican ranks.

Clearly Jim DeMint thinks he will have more influence heading up a special interest group rather than staying inside the US Senate.

I highly doubt that. More importantly, let's hope not. A majority of US citizens favor reductions in military spending, and do not favor extreme stances on abortion.

Indeed, extreme positions of the Tea Party on military spending and abortion are two reasons Republicans lost the WhiteHouse and seats in the US Senate as well.

A genuinely moderate, non-wishy-washy Republican candidate might have won the election. More militant extremism is highly unlikely to do Republicans any good.

I would like to see Republicans take up a true fiscal-conservative cause (including reductions in military spending), while leaving the social issues aside.

Many independents are in the same camp, and ignoring independent voters is no way to win elections. Didn't the last election just prove that?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Significantly Downgrades 2013 Economic Forecast; Is Italy Falling Into the Abyss?

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 08:43 AM PST

Earlier today the ECB left its benchmark rate at a record low .75% stating the rate was "very accommodating". What's more interesting is the ECB's Significant Downgrades To Growth And Inflation Forecasts.
The ECB downgraded its 2012 GDP forecast to a range of -0.6% to -0.4% from -0.6% to -0.2% previously, its 2013 GDP forecast to a range of -0.9% to 0.3% from -0.4% to 1.4% previously, and said its 2014 GDP forecast was for a range of 0.2% to 2.2% growth in the euro area.

On inflation, the ECB forecasts 2.5% inflation in 2012 versus a range of 2.4% to 2.6% previously. 2013 inflation forecasts were lowered to a range of 1.1% to 2.1% from 1.3% to 2.5% previously. In 2014, the ECB sees inflation in a range of 0.6% to 2.2%.
In the Q&A period following the meeting, ECB president Mario Draghi refused to answer the first question from a reporter regarding whether Italy is falling into the abyss.

Is Italy Falling Into Abyss?

Draghi would not address the question, but I will. Let's take a look at the Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI® released yesterday, for clues regarding the abyss.
Key Points

  • Business activity and new work fall at accelerated rates
  • Steepest decrease in employment since June 2009
  • Input price inflation weakest for a year

Output across Italy's service sector decreased at a marked and accelerated rate in November, as highlighted by a drop in the seasonally adjusted Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index – which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on the actual change in business activity at their companies compared to one month ago – from October's reading of 46.0 to 44.6. That stretched the ongoing sequence of contraction to a year-and-a-half.

Contributing to the decrease in activity was a further reduction in the volume of new business placed with Italian service providers in November. The latest drop was sharper than one month before, and attributed by the survey panel in part to lower disposable incomes and a lack of credit.

With incoming new work decreasing, services firms directed more resources towards the clearing of backlogs, which fell for the twenty-first straight month in November. Moreover, the rate of decline was the fastest since August 2009. That was despite a considerable decrease in operating capacity within the sector, as businesses continued to cut staff numbers over the month. In fact, the decline in employment was the most pronounced since June 2009 and close to the series record. Panellists commented on reduced working days and the non-renewal of temporary contracts.

Comment

Phil Smith, economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI® said:

"These data, showing business activity at service providers contracting at a marked and accelerated rate in November, mark a turnaround from the general trend seen in recent months when the pace of decline had eased steadily. Furthermore, a sharper decrease in new business inflows points to further weakness in coming months and adds to the suggestion that Italy's largest sector is some way off a return to growth. Firms were quick to react to the renewed downturn, reducing employment levels at near survey-record pace over the month amid efforts to lower costs. The sharpest decrease in backlogs since August 2009 shows that there remains a substantial degree of excess capacity, giving businesses more room to cut staff numbers."
I believe that answers the question. More specifically, "Yes, Italy has fallen into the abyss." Expect France to fall into the abyss as well, and expect Spain and Greece to stay in the abyss.

Draghi might have spooked everyone if he gave the answer I just did. Thus, it's no wonder that he failed to address the question.

My answer also explains the significant downgrades in the overall eurozone forecast (likely way too optimistic still).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Geithner Says Obama Willing To Go Over Fiscal Cliff: Game Theory Bluff Or Reality?

Posted: 05 Dec 2012 11:40 PM PST

If republicans will not go along with tax hikes on the wealthy, then Geithner Willing To Go Over Fiscal Cliff.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday that the Obama administration was willing to allow the economy to go over the fiscal cliff if Republicans did not agree to raise tax rates on the wealthy. In an interview with CNBC, Geithner drew a harder line in the sand than the White House previously has articulated. "There is no prospect of an agreement that doesn't involve those rates going up on the top 2%," he said. The Treasury Secretary repeated President Barack Obama's tough line that he would not negotiate with Republicans if they held the economy "hostage" to threats that the debt ceiling would not be lifted. At the same time, Geithner tried to sound optimistic that the two sides would reach a deficit-reduction framework. "I think you see the broad outlines of a framework now look more inevitable," he added. Reports to the contrary were "orchestrated drama."
Orchestrated Drama

I am amused at the idea Republicans will not cave in is "orchestrated drama". There is nothing purposely "orchestrated" about the setup.

Republicans brought this mess upon themselves out of arrogance, but game theory now suggests they have little to lose by telling Obama where to go. Likewise, president Obama has little incentive to bargain either.

Ironically, the US could stand a great deal of fiscal austerity. However, the sad reality is neither party has the decency to stand up and say to US citizens what needs to be said: We cannot afford the promises we have made on entitlements, nor can we afford our lavish military budget, nor can we afford to be the world's policeman with US troops in 140 countries.

So, instead of realistic compromises, we have to listen to demagogues in both political parties acting as if cuts in projected budget increases are the same as actual cuts in real spending.

The result is fiscal insanity and trillion dollar deficits for four consecutive years. Whether or not inability to face reality constitutes "drama" is clearly in the eyes of the beholder.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com