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joi, 27 iunie 2013

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Michael Pettis on the China Liquidity Crunch; China Bulls Beware
22% Think Obamacare Will Make Their Situation Better, 42% Say Worse
Destruction of French Manufacturing Placed Squarely on Euro

Michael Pettis on the China Liquidity Crunch; China Bulls Beware

Posted: 27 Jun 2013 12:46 PM PDT

Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets commented on the liquidity crunch and spike in SHIBOR a few days ago via email.

His comments came in before China intervened to quite the markets as noted in China Acts to Calm Markets; Stock Market Rebounds From 6% Plunge After Central Bank Pledges More Liquidity; Wet Nurse Action.

Nonetheless his comments are still relevant and much worth a review. What follows is a guest post from Micahel Pettis.

Pettis Guest Post

Special Points

Short-term rates in the interbank lending market rose steadily over the past two weeks and then suddenly soared Thursday amid rumors of the market's having frozen up and one or more large banks having missed payments.
For the past ten years China's soaring credit has been accommodated by rapid money expansion as the PBoC was forced to monetize large net inflows on the current and capital account. This year, however, while credit continued to expand at historically unprecedented rates, net foreign exchange inflows seem to have dried up, especially after the authorities clamped down some time in May on the over-invoicing of exports that had been used to bring "carry trade" money illegally into the country.
The tension created by accelerating credit expansion (much of it supporting activities that were not generating sufficient cashflow to repay the associated debt) and decelerating money creation has created liquidity strains for much of the past year. Last weeks' events were likely to have been simply an exacerbation of those strains.
I believe talk in the market of China's experiencing its own "Lehman moment" are very much exaggerated. There is liquidity in the system and the PBoC still has the tools needed to alleviate a short-term liquidity crunch before it leads to a banking crisis. Government credibility is high, and given the wide-spread assumption that the government stands behind the banks, I do not expect anything approaching a bank run.
There are however two important lessons to be drawn. First, we are likely to see similar stress in the banks many times again (and have seen it before) as a financial sector wholly addicted to cheap and plentiful credit struggles to accommodate Beijing's determination to control credit growth.
Second, the way the crisis was handled should make it clear that volatility in the financial sector is suppressed by administrative measures. This, however, may increase the risk of a future gapping in confidence and volatility.
During the coming week I believe that a significant amount of Wealth Management Prodiucts (WMP) will mature, and because of asset/liability mismatched this WMP must be rolled over. Beijing, correctly in my opinion, continues to be eager to clamp down on risks within the shadow-banking sector. This is likely to create further stress in WMP placement, which, if mismanaged, could create a run on WMP.
If there is indeed a reduction in the amount of funding available for WMP, the money will have to flow into some other sector. Given the large size of the WMP market, these flows might be significant, although it is not yet clear to me where they will go.

Probably the main lesson of last week is that systems in which volatility is suppressed often seem less volatile, but this is only true when shocks are small. Large shocks tend to result in increases in volatility that far exceed expectations.

I have always argued that China's lack of transparency wouldn't matter too much during the bull phase of the market. It is when market sentiment turns negative that we see the real cost of a lack of transparency. When investors and businesses are nervous, they are likely to over-interpret bad news and to fill in knowledge gaps with the most alarming of the various plausible scenarios.

Lack of transparency, in other words, is a kind of positive feedback mechanism that exacerbates volatility. It can increase buying appetite on the upside (limited information gives us greater scope to assume best-case scenarios) and it hurts prices on the way down (uncertainty rises dramatically and worst-case scenarios become plausible).

This means not only that non-transparent markets are likely to be more volatile, but also that this volatility can be suppressed when adverse shocks are small and exacerbated when adverse shocks are large. Markets lacking transparency, in other words, are more likely to experience lower volatility during normal times and more likely to "gap" when conditions change. Market participants may not have access to negative information until the negative information has accumulated and there is no longer any way to prevent it from becoming widely known, in which case the decline in the market can be sudden and even out of proportion to the value of the negative information.

This is why I think we need to watch carefully what happens this week. It is not clear to me how widely Chinese depositors knew about or understood the events of last week. Although they were discussed in the specialized financial press, the accounts tended to be very "factual".

By this I mean that the articles provided the raw data – money market interest rates surged during the week and peaked on Thursday – but there was little attempt to explain why this happened, or to discuss the seemingly credible rumors of bank defaults, or to analyze the terrific stress in the payments system. To the extent that the press covered the events, they were more likely to focus on the fall in the stock market than on the liquidity squeeze among the banks.

If the foreign and Hong Kong press makes a big deal about trying to understand what happened last week, concerns may filter back into the mainland and may affect behavior. The impact on the behavior of market participants might be very limited, as it usually is when transparency is limited, but the risk is that when it does affect behavior we are more likely to see significant "gapping" in market behavior.

The most important effect is likely to be on demand for wealth management products. I believe that there is RMB 1-2 trillion of WMP coming due before the end of June, and most if not all of this will have to be rolled over. Already it seems that WMP rates are rising. Several friends received SMS offers on their mobiles (this happens a lot in China) for short-term WMP deposits at 6%, which is 100-200 bps higher than we have seen in the past and higher than the 5% cited in the People's Daily article. Until recently, the average rate on WMP seems to have been around 4.3%.

So what can we conclude from the events of last week? The good news is that the new administration seems far more determined than the previous to rein in credit growth and restructure the economy. Clearly the PBoC's refusal to provide liquidity to bail out the interbank market reflects Beijing's tougher stance on speculative excesses. The bad news is that the credit system is so distorted and over-leveraged that any attempt to rein in credit growth creates enormous stress in the system.

By the way I seriously discount much the overexcited talk in the market about how the PBoC engineered the freeze the markets in order to punish the banks and to force discipline onto the financial system. Clearly there is some truth to this argument, and the PBoC certainly did refrain from bailing out the liquidity needs of the banks for the past two weeks as rates rose, but we shouldn't let lack of information lead us into conspiracy theories.

I suspect the PBoC never expected this to happen the way it did and they were caught as flatfooted and confused as everyone else. Remember that the PBoC has almost no experience of any kind of financial market condition except that of soaring money creation and credit expansion. Until last year they have never had to deal with a stable or even contracting money supply, and consequently they have had little experience in dealing with these kinds of conditions. This was new for everyone.

In fact there is an important lesson here for the PBoC, and investors more generally. Chinese financial markets often seem less volatile than one would expect for a poor, developing country, largely because of administrative measures that intentionally or unintentionally suppress normal volatility. These kinds of systems, however, are not less volatile. They seem less volatile because small shocks have minimal impact. Larger shocks, however, tend to cause a much greater than expected surge in volatility. Perhaps last week was a case in point.

Going forward we will probably see more of this in China. Volatility will be suppressed for periods of times only to erupt in greater than expected volatility from time to time. This is not only a China problem, of course. One can easily argue that the Fed's actions under Alan Greenspan seemed to induce a "great moderation", but only temporarily, and when the great moderation became less moderate, the economy was always likely to be more disorderly than expected. The euro, similarly, sharply reduced volatility in peripheral Europe for many years until it suddenly exacerbated it. Of course no student of Hyman Minsky would be surprised by any of this.

Beyond the lesson of unexpected surges in volatility, this coming week is likely to be important. One of my colleagues tells me that according to Fitch there is RMB 1.5 trillion of WMP coming due in the next ten days. I want to confirm this number but haven't yet had the time to do so, although this information is from a credible source, so I assume it is correct. This matters because there may be real trouble rolling over some of these WMP and we know that there is likely to be a huge maturity mismatch in the funding of WMP. The demand for short-term funding might be quite high this coming week and it will be interesting to see how the PBoC reacts.

Stay tuned. This is not a "Lehman moment" and we are not likely to see a sudden crisis, but it certainly indicates just how strained the money markets have become. Some questions:

1. If there is indeed enough money in the system, as the PBoC says there is, and the problem was just that the big banks were hoarding money, where did that hoarded money show up? Was it in higher excess reserves at the PBoC, or higher central bank bill purchases, or somewhere else? We will need to wait for the next PBoC data release in July to see whether excess reserves went up in June, although we will only get month end numbers, which won't tell us much about what happened last week.

2. Why hasn't this received more attention in the mainland press? Are they trying to prevent Chinese depositors from knowing how risky things are? If the foreign press makes this into a big deal, eventually ordinary Chinese are going to find out. How will they react? Will they close out WMP positions?

3. If demand for WMP drops, where will the money that until now went into WMP show up? I can only think of the following: more outflows from China, higher deposits in the banks, stock markets, real estate markets, cash hoarding.

This coming week is quarter end, and we are likely to continue seeing tough liquidity conditions in the markets. I will be watching interbank interest rates closely, of course, as well as trying to get a sense of what the perceptions might be among ordinary households. I will also be watching WMP closely. I think we can safely discount warnings that China's financial system is about to collapse. For many years it was impossibly difficult to convince many people that China's growth model was leading inevitably to a serious debt problem, and it is sort of ironic that it has become equally hard to convince people nowadays that we are not going to see a financial collapse.

Because of limited investment alternatives, a more-or-less closed capital account (unless you are rich or powerful), and resilient government credibility, we are unlikely to see bank runs among the large banks or a financial collapse (which is ultimately just a kind of bank run). The huge maturity mismatches in the banking system are effectively "hedged" by the inability of bank depositors to leave the system. But one way or another we do have to write down the huge hidden losses in the country's balance sheet, and this will mean not a collapse but rather many years of Japanese-style slow growth as the system grinds its way though its excesses.

Pettis Guest Post End

China Bulls Beware

The last sentence above is worth repeating "One way or another we do have to write down the huge hidden losses in the country's balance sheet, and this will mean not a collapse but rather many years of Japanese-style slow growth as the system grinds its way though its excesses."

Those still bullish on base commodities because of demand for China, and those who think China will pass the US in GDP this decade are about to find out how wrong they are.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

22% Think Obamacare Will Make Their Situation Better, 42% Say Worse

Posted: 27 Jun 2013 11:09 AM PDT

A new Gallup poll shows Americans Wary of Health Law's Impact.

Americans are more negative than positive about the healthcare law's future impact on their family and on the U.S. in general. Forty-two percent say that in the long run, the law will make their family's healthcare situation worse; 22% say it will make it better. And almost half believe the law will make the healthcare situation in the U.S. worse; 34% say it will make it better.

Question: In the long run, how do you think the healthcare law will affect your family's healthcare situation and the healthcare situation in the US? Will it make things better, not make much difference, or will it make things worse?

These data are from a June 20-24 Gallup poll, conducted as the Obama administration and its supporters are trying to raise awareness of the Affordable Care Act. A new nonprofit group, Enroll America, just launched a campaign, "Get Covered America," to help the uninsured in particular learn about the new law and how to sign up for health coverage, which everyone is required to carry starting in 2014.

It is possible that once Americans start to learn more about the law -- and see it in action, with the uninsured able to start shopping for coverage Oct. 1 -- they will change their perspective on its potential impact.

The uninsured are slightly more likely than the insured to think the law will make the healthcare situation for their family and for the U.S. better. But even the uninsured are divided as to whether the law will make their healthcare situation and the country's better or worse.

Majority Disapproves of the Affordable Care Act

Fifty-two percent of Americans say they disapprove of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, while 44% approve. Last fall, 48% said they approved of the law and 45% disapproved. Americans have generally been divided in their views of the law since it was passed in 2010, in response to slightly different question wordings.

The healthcare law itself elicits highly partisan responses, with Republicans nearly unanimously disapproving (89%) and a smaller but still large majority of Democrats (76%) approving. Democrats' and Republicans' views are essentially unchanged from November 2012. It is independents whose views have changed -- they have become more likely to disapprove now. The majority of independents (52%) approved of the law last fall, while now a majority disapprove (53%).

Those without health insurance -- a group that most benefits from the new law -- are slightly more likely to see it as having a positive effect, but even they are not ardent supporters.

If people were more aware of the impact Obamacare had on part-time hours I suspect the poll showing would be much worse. Still, it's significant that independents have changed their minds.

And if premiums soar as expected, even Democrats may wake up.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Destruction of French Manufacturing Placed Squarely on Euro

Posted: 27 Jun 2013 12:17 AM PDT

Inquiring minds are digging into a 23 page report by Dr Eric Dor, Directeur IESEG School of Management, Université Catholique de Lille, regarding the consequences of monetary union on the destruction of French manufacturing industry.

Eric Dor writes "The launch of the euro brought about an impressive decrease of manufacturing production in France and huge losses of market shares."

Abstract

Since the launch of the euro, French and German industrial productions have extremely diverged. French manufacturing production decreased while German manufacturing industry very strongly increased. The decrease or stagnation of exports of French products contrasts with the strong increase of German exports. France lost market shares on the foreign markets. This evolution is a direct consequence of the flaws of the monetary union as it has been organized. Also, due to sharp differences in the average degree of sophistication of French products, sharing a common currency with Germany inevitably had to lead to a loss of competitiveness of France on foreign markets.

Manufacturing industry production in France

The detailed data computed in this paper shed light on the magnitude of French disindustrialisation since the launch of the euro. Before EMU, the rates of growth of French and German industrial production were close to each other. For example, from January 1995 to December 1998, the cumulated rate of growth was 5.5% in France and 6.4% in Germany. However, since the launch of the euro, from January 1999 to April 2013, French industrial production decreased by 11.4% while German industrial production increased by 32.8%!

Even before the financial crisis, from January 1999 to December 2008, the divergence was obvious. French manufacturing production only increased by 3.4% while German manufacturing industry increased by 32.4%. The crisis was destructive for France, where manufacturing production decreased by 15.2% from January 2009 to April 2013, while Germany resisted with a decrease limited to 1.5%. The data on manufacturing industrial production also show that since the start of EMU, the UK has performed better than France, which is clearly close to the distressed economies of the periphery, like Spain and Italy.

Disaggregated data of Cumulated growth of industrial production in % show that the divergence between France and Germany occurred in nearly all sectors of industrial activity.

The shortcomings of the monetary union were known from the start

The responsibility of those who pushed ahead with the EMU project is enormous, because many of them were aware of the flaws of its design. This awareness is very well documented by Geert De Clercq (2011).

It must be pointed out that it was known by experts that the mechanics of the common currency would lead to a likely implicit funding of the southern countries by northern countries. Before joining the ECB in 1998, Otmar Issing himself had published a paper where he warned that a single currency would require transfers of cash between the member countries and that it would cause political tensions. While the enormous TARGET related claim of the Bundesbank on the rest of the Eurosystem has recently raised major concerns in Germany, such a likely phenomenon had been very early identified, even before the launch of the Euro, for example by Garber.

The consequences for France

While France did not experience a real estate bubble and an excessive private sector indebtedness that could compare with those of other European southern countries, the competitiveness of the country and the profitability of its industry have dramatically deteriorated since the launch of the euro. As a result the trade deficit has continuously increased and the losses of productive capacity in the industry have been huge.

The PDF paper is 23 pages long and is loaded with charts like these.

Cumulated Industrial Production

click on any chart for sharper image

Trade Balances

Exports

Euro Exacerbated Existing Imbalances

To be completely fair, problems in France (Spain, Greece, Italy, etc) cannot be pinned entirely on the euro. However, it is 100% certain the euro exacerbated existing problems, and in a major way.

Instead of being a savior, the Euro has been more like an anchor to most of the economies in the eurozone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

32 Greatest Movie Scenes Of All Time

Posted: 27 Jun 2013 12:15 PM PDT

Awesome unscripted movie scenes.

Gun vs. Sword
Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)

Director - Steven Spielberg

While chasing Marion Ravenwood (Karen Allen) after she's been kidnapped, archaeologist and adventurer Dr. Indiana Jones (Harrison Ford) runs into a large sword-wielding bad guy dressed all in black. Instead of fighting him in what would surely be a losing whip versus sword battle, Indy simply pulls out his revolver, puts the man down with one shot and moves on.

The original script called for a long sword fight but a day earlier Ford got a severe case of food poisoning and didn't have the energy to film the scene as written. After a discussion with director Steven Spielberg, the scene was changed and became an iconic part of Indiana Jones mythos.

Why Male Models?
Zoolander (2001)

Director - Ben Stiller

In this scene involving former hand model J.P. Prewitt (David Duchovny) and the dimwitted male model Derek Zoolander (Ben Stiller), Prewitt - a conspiracy theorist - explains how the fashion industry has been behind every high profile political assassination of the last hundred years.

Zoolander asks, "Why male models?" Prewitt answers with a lengthy explanation, after which Zoolander responds again, "Why male models?" Stiller forgot his original line and just repeated his previous line instead. This prompted Duchovny to ad-lib his response "Are you kidding? I just told you like a minute ago."

The scene ends up reinforcing the movie's narrative of the brainless male model stereotype and Stiller turned a gaffe into one of the funniest parts of the film.

The Cat
The Godfather (1972)

Director - Francis Ford Coppola

Vito Corleone (Marlon Brando) is more than the cold-hearted head of a powerful Italian mob family. That trait shows when he sentences a man to be beaten as retaliation for the beating of another man's daughter - all while gently stroking a cat.

Thing is, the cat was never part of the original script. Some reports say that Coppola plopped the feline into Brando's lap just before filming began. Other reports say Brando found "il gatto" roaming around the set, picked him and gave him an offer he couldn't refuse (heh).

I Don't Care
The Fugitive (1993)

Director - Andrew Davis

In this famous showdown between Richard Kimble (Harrison Ford) - a doctor wrongly accused of murdering his wife - and U.S. Marshal Samuel Gerard (Tommy Lee Jones), Kimble gets the jump on Gerard in the sewers. Instead of shooting the Marshal and making things worse, Kimble pleads his case to him saying, "I didn't kill my wife!" Gerard, with a sober tone and intense look on his face, responds with a simple, but brilliant and ad-libbed, piece of dialog, "I don't care."

The line wasn't part of the script but those three words reinforced to Kimble, and audiences, that it didn't matter to Gerard whether the doctor was guilty or innocent of the crimes for which he was accused. He was going to get his man - no matter what.

Slow Clapping
The Dark Knight (2008)

Director - Christopher Nolan

As the Joker (Heath Ledger) waits quietly alone in jail after having been arrested by Jim Gordon (Gary Oldman), Mayor Garcia (Nestor Carbonell) shows up to look over Gotham's latest scourge. While there he also promotes Gordon to the position of Commissioner.

As the officers in the room applaud the announcement Ledger begins, unscripted, to slowly clap - never changing his facial expression. It was just a simple improvisation but one that was unsettling and darkly brilliant.

Spitting Blood
RoboCop (1987)

Director - Paul Verhoeven

When antagonist Clarence Boddicker (Kurtwood Smith) is taken to the police precinct after receiving a solid whooping by RoboCop (Peter Weller), Boddicker spits a bloody glob onto the paperwork of the desk sergeant, followed by the line "Give me my f*ckin' phone call!"

Smith and Verhoeven briefly had discussed the unscripted moment before filming the scene but neglected to inform the extras - which was evident by their real and disgusted surprise as the scene unfolded.

Necklace Laugh
Pretty Woman (1990)

Director - Garry Marshall

In what became one of the most famous scenes from the film, Edward Lewis (Richard Gere) presents call girl Vivian Ward (Julia Roberts) with a gorgeous and rather expensive diamond necklace. As Roberts reaches out to touch the precious jewels, Gere - in an unscripted playful moment - quickly snaps the box shut genuinely surprising her.

Her laugh was so honest, and the scene so good, that Marshall decided to leave it in the film as is.

Think Fast!
Being John Malkovich (1999)

Director - Spike Jonze

Shortly after John Malkovich meets Craig Schwartz (John Cusack) on the side of the road he wanders off mad. As he does, a car passes by with a man leaning out the window. The man throws a can hitting Malkovich square in the back of the head while yelling, "Hey Malkovich! Think Fast!" - causing the Oscar nominated actor to scream out in legitimate pain.

Neither the can throwing nor the reaction were scripted but the drunken extra in the car felt the opportunity was too good to pass up. Jonze thought the scene added to the character's frustration and left it in.

Instead of being fired, the extra was added to the final cut of the film and given a raise.

The Cinderella Story
Caddyshack (1980)

Director - Harold Ramis

One of the best and most quoted scenes from this film is "The Cinderella Story" where groundskeeper Carl Spackler (Bill Murray) mutters a story to himself about an unknown golfer winning The Masters.

This entire scene was developed by Murray on the spot saying in his 1999 book Cinderella Story: My Life in Golf: "The Cinderella Story was a spur-of-the-moment idea. 'Get me some flowers,' I said. 'Four rows of mums."

Most Annoying Sound in the World
Dumb and Dumber (1994)

Director - Farrelly Brothers

There are many scenes in the film that show how moronic and simple-minded best friends Lloyd Christmas (Jim Carrey) and Harry Dunne (Jeff Daniels) can be but this one showed how annoying they can be on car trips - and it was entirely unscripted.

Even hitman Joe Mentalino's (Mike Starr) hissy fit reaction to the scene was unscripted, which makes the scene that much funnier.

Know How I Know You're Gay?
Knocked Up (2007)

Director - Judd Apatow

Crafting a good and funny insult is one of the hardest things to do but Seth Rogen and Paul Rudd are two of the best - proving it in this scene of put down jokes.

This entire exchange between Pete (Rudd) and Ben (Rogen) while in the car was completely ad libbed by the two actors. The scene is only a few seconds long on the final cut but as an extra on the DVD, the scene goes on for over six minutes.

Farting Wife
Good Will Hunting (1997)

Director - Gus Van Sant

In this scene between therapist Sean Maguire (Robin Williams) and math genius Will Hunting (Matt Damon), Williams proves that comedic-minded actors usually give the best ad libbed scenes.

The entire story about Maguire's flatulent spouse was made up on the spot by Williams and not a part of the original script.

Delayed Explosion
The Dark Knight (2008)

Director - Christopher Nolan

Originally, the Joker (Heath Ledger) was supposed to walk down the street while the explosion at the hospital began, get on the school bus during the scripted pause, and the bus would drive away while the explosion finished.

However, Ledger stopped walking during the pause and in a moment of improvisation began fidgeting with the remote detonator in a very Joker-esque manner - bringing a slight amount of dark humor to what would have just been a serious scene.

Game Over Man
Aliens (1986)

Director - James Cameron

Chaos and confusion are everywhere after the first attack by the xenomorphs decimate the Space Marines and their drop ship crashes. As the crew tries to get their bearing and fully understand what just happened, Private Hudson (Bill Paxton) - ever the pessimist - laments "That's it man, game over man, game over! What are we going to do now?"

The original line didn't include the "game over" part and was ad libbed by Paxton.

Party Talk
Tootsie (1982)

Director - Sydney Pollack

During this scene, aspiring playwright Jeff Slater (Bill Murray) was required to appear to be talking throughout the entire party; however, there was no dialog written for the character.

As a natural entertainer and comedian, Murray improvised the entire scene.

The Line Up
The Usual Suspects (1995)

Director - Bryan Singer

Christopher McQuarrie wrote only one line for this scene - "Give me the keys, you f*cking c*cksucker!" - it was up to the individual actors to deliver it however they wanted. McQuarrie actually plays the cop speaking with the suspects and both his line to Fred Fenster (Benicio Del Toro) "In English please?" and Del Toro's reaction were unscripted.

According to interviews on the DVD, the laughing during Del Toro's delivery was due to his constant farting while filming - boys will be boys.

Come Out to Play
The Warriors (1979)

Director - Walter Hill

In this scene, the script called for Luther (David Patrick Kelly) - leader of the vicious New York gang the Rogues - to drive up and provoke rival gang The Warriors to a fight in the streets by clinking bottles together.

Kelly spontaneously added the now famous line "Warriors, come out to play!"

Take the Cannoli
The Godfather (1972)

Director - Francis Ford Coppala

Corleone family capo Peter Clemenza (Richard Castellano) orders his henchman Rocco Lampone (Tom Rosqui) to carry out a hit on Paulie Gatto (John Martino) for his betrayal of Don Vito Corleone (Marlon Brando).

Castellano's original line was "Leave the gun" but drawing from an earlier scene where Clemenza's wife reminds him to bring home some cannoli, he improvised the now famous line "Take the cannoli."

Mein Furher, I Can Walk
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)

Director - Stanley Kubrick

Nuclear scientist Dr. Merkwürdigliebe or Strangelove (Peter Sellers) was confined to a wheelchair for the entire film - but Sellers decided to spontaneously stand at the very end of the film, take a couple of steps and proclaim, "Mein Führer! I can walk!"

In a process known as "retroscripting", Kubrick changed much of the script he co-wrote with Terry Southern to incorporate much of Sellers' improvised dialog, including this now famously unscripted scene from the end of his black satirical comedy.

Remembering the Brothers
Saving Private Ryan (1998)

Director - Steven Spielberg

During a brief break from fighting, Captain Miller (Tom Hanks) sits with Private Ryan (Matt Damon) swapping stories about what it was like back home for them both. The story Damon tells about his brothers and the barn was made up entirely by him during filming.

None of the story was part of the original script.

You're Gonna Need a Bigger Boat
Jaws (1975)

Director - Steven Spielberg

While chumming the waters in an attempt to lure the deadly great white shark within range, Police Chief Brody (Roy Scheider) gets his first look at exactly how massive the killer shark truly is.

Stunned, startled and filled with fear he stands up and utters the now famous line to Orca Captain Quint (Robert Shaw) completely off-script, "You're going to need a bigger boat."

Turns out, he was right.

I Know
Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (1980)

Director - Irvin Kershner

As smuggler-turned-hero Han Solo (Harrison Ford) is about to be encased in carbonite, Princess Leia (Carrie Fisher) reveals her love for him. The script called for Leia to say "I love you" to which Solo was supposed to respond with "I love you too".

Ford decided that Solo wouldn't say something like that and instead, changed the line to simply "I know."

Can You Hear Me Now?
Reservoir Dogs (1992)

Director - Quentin Tarantino

The script for Tarantino's violent, freshman project called for jewel thief Mr. Blonde (Michael Madsen) to torture Officer Nash (Kirk Baltz) by cutting off his ear with a straight razor - however, Tarantino didn't give Madsen any specific direction what to do once the gruesome deed had been done.

All of Madsen's lines and actions with the ear were improvised by him.

Here's Looking at You Kid
Casablanca (1942)

Director - Michael Curtiz

The scene of Rick Blaine (Humphrey Bogart) putting Ilsa Lund (Ingrid Bergman) and Victor Laszlo (Paul Henreid) on a plane bound for America with the help of Captain Louis Renault (Claude Rains) is chock full of memorable lines but the line listed as 5th in AFI's 100 Years...100 Movie Quotes wasn't even part of the original script.

According to reports, Bogart said the phrase "Here's looking at you kid" multiple times to Bergman while teaching her to play poker between takes.

The Sneeze
Annie Hall (1977)

Director - Woody Allen

Neurotic Jewish comedian Alvy Singer (Woody Allen) is at a party when his friend passes him a small tin filled with cocaine. As Alvy takes the tin in his hands he has a violent sneeze - sending white powder everywhere. The surrounding actors' uncontrollable laughter was spontaneous and genuine and Allen decided to leave it in the final cut of the film after it tested well with audiences.

So one of the most famous sneezes in cinema history was never actually intended to be part of the final film - it actually occurred during a scene rehearsal.

Here's Johnny!
The Shining (1980)

Director - Stanley Kubrick

Wendy Torrance (Shelley Duval) and her son Danny (Danny Lloyd) hide from the deranged novelist Jack Torrance (Jack Nicholson) in a hotel bathroom. As Jack begins chopping through the door with a fire axe and sticks his face into the splintered opening, he utters a phrase previously made popular by Ed McMahon on The Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson - "Here's Johnny!"

The line was not part of Kubrick's original screenplay and was improvised by Nicholson.

Like Tears in the Rain
Blade Runner (1982)

Director - Ridley Scott

As ex-blade runner Rick Deckard (Harrison Ford) attempts to "retire" the replicant known as Roy Batty (Rutger Hauer), he finds himself in a precarious position. The battle worn replicant shows mercy on Deckard rescuing him from the edge of the building - only to "die" shortly after giving a moving monologue.

As he reminisces about his past he says, "All those moments will be lost in time...," but then Hauer adds the unscripted and philosophical phrase "...like tears in rain."

I'm Walking Here!
Midnight Cowboy (1969)

Director - John Schlesinger

As want-to-be gigolo Joe Buck (Jon Voight) and crippled scam artist Ratso (Dustin Hoffman) cross a street in New York City, a REAL NYC taxi cab driver who ignored all the "Street Closed for Filming" signs drives through the scene.

Obviously this wasn't scripted and Hoffman's response and actions were all improvised, in character, as a result.

Singing in the Rain
A Clockwork Orange (1971)

Director - Stanley Kubrick

Alex (Malcolm McDowell) breaks into a happy song as he and his "droogs" perform a bit of "ultra-violence" and rape. Reportedly Kubrick filmed this scene several times and wasn't happy with it each time - until he told McDowell to just "do anything he wanted".

McDowell decided to belt out "Singing in the Rain" and Kubrick was so pleased with how much better the scene became that he acquired the rights to use the song immediately.

You Talking to Me?
Taxi Driver (1976)

Director - Martin Scorsese

When screenwriter Paul Schrader wrote this scene it simply said "Travis talks to himself in the mirror" - there was no specific dialog given. Everything that insomnia-plagued taxi driver Travis Bickle (Robert De Niro) says during his faux-conversation was improvised by De Niro on the spot.

To this day, whenever someone walks by a mirror they can't help but utter his now famous line "You talking to me?"

Hsssss!
The Silence of the Lambs (1991)

Director - Jonathan Demme

The famous "hssssss" sound made by Dr. Hannibal Lecter (Anthony Hopkins) during his story about eating a liver with "fava beans and a nice Chianti" to FBI agent Clarice Starling (Jodie Foster) wasn't in the original script.

Apparently it was something Hopkins did during rehearsals to creep out Foster - and Demme decided leaving it in was the best way to creep out his audience too.

Drill Sergeant
Full Metal Jacket (1987)

Director - Stanley Kubrick

Originally, R. Lee Ermey wasn't even cast in the role as Gunnery Sergeant Hartman but after Ermey submitted a tape of himself spewing insults at group of Royal Marines for 15 minutes straight, Kubrick cast him immediately

Ermey wrote 150 pages of insults and Kubrick estimated that 50% of the character's dialog was improvised by the former drill instructor.

Via: screenrant

The Economics of Going Viral [Infographic]

Posted: 27 Jun 2013 10:52 AM PDT

Until recently viral YouTube videos were one-time flukes.Now an entire industry surrounds YouTube stars: Managers, PR programs, award shows, and content networks!

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Source: The Economics of Going Viral

How about this week?

Hello, everyone --

When was the last time you can remember a week like this? On Tuesday, President Obama committed the full weight of American leadership to the fight against carbon pollution and climate change. Then on Wednesday, the Supreme Court struck down the Defense of Marriage Act and took us one step closer to marriage equality.

It's not all been good news. Before the President spoke on Tuesday, the Supreme Court struck down one of the core provisions of the Voting Rights Act that has helped to protect one of Americans’ most fundamental rights for nearly 50 years. As the President said, it’s now up to Congress to ensure that every American has equal access to the polls.

But the most incredible thing about this week is that it's not over yet.

Today, 68 members of the U.S. Senate, Republicans and Democrats, came together and voted to reform our nation's immigration system. They voted for a bill that secures our borders and cracks down on employers who refuse to play by the rules. They voted for a bill that provides undocumented immigrants with a way to earn citizenship so they can come out of the shadows. They voted for a bill that provides visas to foreign entrepreneurs looking to start American businesses, reunites families, and helps the students and young people who've never known any home but America fully embrace the country that they love.

And if you support this set of ideas, we want to hear from you. Tell us why immigration reform is important for people like you, and we'll make sure your voice is part of the conversation in Washington.

For weeks, people from all over the country have been sharing their immigration stories with the White House.

We heard from a 24-year-old honors student named Ruben who told us that he has dreamed of joining the U.S. military since he was 17 years old. "Since then," he said, "there has not been one day in which I do not think of the day that I will finally become a U.S. Marine."

We heard from a man named Miguel who arrived in the United States at 12, speaking hardly any English. He's now a citizen, a taxpayer, and the president of his local Chamber of Commerce.

We heard from a woman named Ramona whose father landed on Ellis Island in 1920, then helped build the New York subway system. "We all have come from someplace else if we go back far enough," she wrote, "and, as you said Mr. President, 'we've always been better off for it.' "

Each of these stories is representative of others like them. For these people, immigration isn't a chance to score political points or win an abstract debate. It's a common heritage that unites us all. And in the weeks ahead, we're going to do everything in our power to lift up their voices.

Today, we took a big step forward with this Senate vote. But we haven't won the debate. This bill isn't yet a law, and there are a lot of policymakers who are still weighing their options. As the conversation unfolds here in Washington, we need you to be part of it.

Tell us why immigration reform is important for you:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/immigration-support

Thanks!

Cecilia

Cecilia Muñoz
Director, Domestic Policy Council
The White House

P.S. -- Want to learn about the President's plan to combat climate change? Click here. Want to read the President's statement on the Supreme Court's DOMA decisions? Click here.

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See the White House Through a New Lens

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See the White House Through a New Lens

We are proud that President Obama is committed to giving Americans an unfiltered look at life inside the White House, but you can't always go #nofilter.

Yesterday morning, the White House posted its first photo on Instagram, an image of the First Family taking off on Marine One for their trip to Senegal, South Africa, and Tanzania.

Click here to learn more about how you can engage with the White House on Instagram.

The First Family takes off for a three-country trip across Africa captured in Earlybird.

joi, 27 iunie 2013