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miercuri, 7 august 2013

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Yesterday, President Obama spoke in Phoenix about his plan to build a better foundation for homeownership. This afternoon, he'll be answering your questions about that plan and what it means for homeowners -- and those who want a home of their own.

Tune in at 1:00 p.m. ET to watch the President answer your questions.

We hope you'll watch at 1 p.m. ET

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

We hope you'll watch at 1 p.m. ET

Yesterday, President Obama spoke in Phoenix about his plan to build a better foundation for homeownership.

Today he's taking your questions online about that plan and what it means for homeowners, and those who want a home of their own. It's part of an online chat with Zillow -- the online real-estate marketplace -- and Yahoo!.

So at 1 p.m. ET, click here to watch President Obama answer your questions.

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Seth's Blog : "Oh, that's just a hack someone put together..."

"Oh, that's just a hack someone put together..."

Just about all the big decisions, innovations and perfect solutions around you didn't start that way.

They weren't the result of a ten-person committee, carefully considering all options, testing the reasonable ones and putting in place a top-down implementation that went flawlessly.

[The idea behind Amazon, the Mailchimp logo, the medical approach to childhood leukemia, the cell phone, the microwave oven, ethical email marketing, Johnny B. Goode, the Super Bowl, Kiva, Buffalo chicken wings...]

No, they were the result of one person, a person in a jam or a hurry or somewhat inspired. One person flipping a coin or tweaking a little bit more or saying, "this might not work" and then taking a leap.

Inventing isn't the hard part. The ideas that change the world are changing the world because someone cared enough to stick it out, to cajole and lead and evolve. But even though the inventing isn't the hard part, it scares us away.

Before you tell yourself you have no right to invent this or improve that, remind yourself that the person before you had no right either, but did it anyway.

• Email to a friend •

InTheWorldNerd: "Retrogameplay - PC - Max Payne - Parte III (ITA)" and more videos

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marți, 6 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Army Will Not Suspend Contracts with Al Qaeda-Tied Companies, Citing "Due Process Rights"

Posted: 06 Aug 2013 09:40 AM PDT

As amazing at it may seem, the US army will not suspend contracts with Al Qaeda-Tied Companies if the ties are based on classified information.

Here are the key paragraphs straight from the SIGAR Special Inspector General Afghanistan Reconstruction Report for July 2013.

A continuing problem is the Army's refusal to act on SIGAR's recommendations to suspend or debar individuals who are supporters of the insurgency, including the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and al-Qaeda. The Army suspension and debarment official has taken the position that suspension or debarment of such individuals and entities would be a violation of their due process rights if based on classified information or if based on findings by the Department of Commerce which placed them on the Entities List.

SIGAR has referred 43 such cases to the Army, and all have been rejected, despite detailed supporting information demonstrating that these individuals and entities are providing material support to the insurgency in Afghanistan. In other words, they may be enemies of the United States, but that is not enough to keep them from getting government contracts.

The above link is from the Fox News story Army won't suspend contracts with Al Qaeda-tied companies, citing 'due process rights'

In a scathing passage of his latest report to Congress, Special Inspector General John Sopko said his office has urged the Army to suspend or debar 43 contractors over concerns about ties to the Afghanistan insurgency, "including supporters of the Taliban, the Haqqani network and al Qaeda."

Sopko wrote that the Army "rejected" every single case.

Sopko pointed out the apparent disconnect between one part of the Army that is killing insurgents and the other part that allegedly is doing business with them.

"I am deeply troubled that the U.S. military can pursue, attack, and even kill terrorists and their supporters, but that some in the U.S. government believe we cannot prevent these same people from receiving a government contract," he wrote in a letter attached to the report.

In the wake of the report, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill aimed at restricting U.S. agencies from awarding contracts to supporters of extremist groups in Afghanistan. The bill would give the inspector general's office the authority to suspend Afghanistan contractors when agencies fail to review companies the office has flagged.

Pressure Cooker Threats

I invite the reader to compare what the US Army can or cannot do regarding military contracts with the targeting of journalists, and how an innocuous online search for a pressure cooker can lead to a knock on the door from the terrorism police.

In case you missed the above story, please consider NSA tool collects "Nearly Everything You Do On the Internet"; Targeting Journalists; What Google Knows About You; Warrantless Cellphone Tracking Upheld .

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Reader Question: Does the Fed Balance Sheet Properly Reflect QE Announcements?

Posted: 06 Aug 2013 08:19 AM PDT

Reader Richard writes ...

"Hi Mish I hope you can explain something. Everyone talks about QE of $85 billion per month, but where does the alleged money go? The fed's balance sheet doesn't reflect it. The balance sheet was up $720 billion from Aug 1, 2012 to Aug 1, 2013 ($309B in treasuries and $393B in MBS) but that is only $60B per month. Where is the other $25B per month everyone talks about. And from Aug 1, 2011 to Aug 1, 2012 (give or take a day or so), the Fed balance sheet only went up $9.997B in treasuries and went down $43.862B in MBS. So if QE is $85B a month, where is it and why doesn't it show up in the Fed's balance sheet."

Fed's Balance Sheet

QE History

Here is a bit of QE History from Wikipedia.

Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1, December 2008 to March 2010)

"On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced that it would purchase up to $600 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and agency debt. On December 1, Chairman Bernanke provided further details in a speech. On December 16, the program was formally launched by the FOMC. On March 18, 2009, the FOMC announced that the program would be expanded by an additional $750 billion in purchases of agency MBS and agency debt and $300 billion in purchases of Treasury securities.

Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2, November 2010 to June 2011 )

On November 3, 2010, the Fed announced that it would purchase $600 billion of longer dated treasuries, at a rate of $75 billion per month. That program, popularly known as "QE2", concluded in June 2011.

Operation Twist (2011)

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its September 21, 2011 Meeting at about 2:15 p.m. EDT by announcing the implementation of Operation Twist. This is a plan to purchase $400 billion of bonds with maturities of 6 to 30 years and to sell bonds with maturities less than 3 years, thereby extending the average maturity of the Fed's own portfolio. This is an attempt to do what Quantitative Easing (QE) tries to do, without printing more money and without expanding the Fed's balance sheet, therefore hopefully avoiding the inflationary pressure associated with QE. This announcement brought a bout of risk aversion in the equity markets and strengthened the US Dollar, whereas QE I had weakened the USD and supported the equity markets. Further, on June 20, 2012 the Federal Open Market Committee announced an extension to the Twist programme by adding additionally $267 billion thereby extending it throughout 2012.

Quantitative easing 3 (QE3)

On September 13, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). This new round of quantitative easing provided for an open-ended commitment to purchase $40 billion agency mortgage-backed securities per month until the labor market improves "substantially".

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to expand its quantitative easing program further on December 12, 2012. This round continued to authorize up to $40 billion worth of agency mortgage-backed securities per month and added $45 billion worth of longer-term Treasury securities. The outright Treasury purchases as part of the augmented program continued at a pace comparable to that under "Operation Twist"; however, the Federal Reserve could no longer sell short-dated Treasury securities to buy longer-dated ones since they had insufficient holdings of short-dated Treasuries.

Timing Issues

It appears most of the discrepancy is a timing issue. It was not until December of 2012 that the Fed authorized up to $85 billion in asset purchases per month, adding an additional allocation of $45 billion per month of long-term treasuries.

Other Issues

Nonetheless, I bounced the question off Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog and he cited some additional factors that may cause discrepancies in Fed Balance Sheet reporting.

Delayed settlement of MBS buys (i.e. the payments and balance sheet increases tied to mortgage backed securities occur with a delay)
Balance sheets adjustments due to unamortized discounts on securities held
Fluctuations in repo balances
Shrinkage in outstanding currency swaps
Fluctuations in the treasury's cash balances with the Fed
Declining balances of the Maiden Lane portfolio
Changes in non-reserve bank deposits with FR banks
Valuation changes in foreign currency assets
Declining face value of mortgage backed securities as underlying mortgages are paid back

In essence, the Fed's balance sheet does reflect announcements (and of course the absurdity of those announcements).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Miss Redneck Alabama
Sun Bright Hotel, The Cheapest Hotel in NYC
Best News Bloopers July 2013 [Video]
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Game of Thrones Exhibition

Miss Redneck Alabama

Posted: 06 Aug 2013 05:55 PM PDT

Redneck hotties at Ms. Redneck Alabama 2013 in Woodstock.

Sun Bright Hotel, The Cheapest Hotel in NYC

Posted: 06 Aug 2013 05:37 PM PDT

Chinatown's Sun Bright Hotel is the cheapest hotel in New York and probably the worst one. For just $10 a night you get a place to sleep with cockroaches and vermin. More than 100 disadvantaged men live side by side in 'human kennels' separated by chicken wire on two floors.