luni, 27 mai 2013

Seth's Blog : Upcoming seminar/internships

 

Upcoming seminar/internships

Seven early bird tickets left for my event next month.

Hope to see you there.

Also, last few days to apply to my paid summer internship. I'm seeing some absolutely extraordinary talent. Late applications aren't accepted.

     

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Learning How To Be A Manager

Learning How To Be A Manager


Learning How To Be A Manager

Posted: 26 May 2013 07:41 PM PDT

Posted by caitlin.krumdieck

Introduction from Will Critchlow:

I want to introduce the post that follows for two reasons. First, it’s a little different to the majority of posts we write for the SEOmoz blog, and second, it’s Caitlin’s first post here. Caitlin Krumdieck is our Director of Client Development at Distilled. Until she joined the company (as a sales executive), I had sold every piece of work that Distilled had done. She (supposedly) joined the company to assist me in responding to leads and putting together proposals. When she out-sold me in her third month, it became clear that I should be making way for her to do her thing and her growth at Distilled has continued from there. Along the way, she’s learned some interesting things about herself and the various roles she’s held in the company. I hope you enjoy reading about Caitlin’s growth and development and take away something useful for your own career and company.


Throwing myself in the deep end (aka learning how to be a manager)

I always thought I wanted to be a manager. Growing up naturally bossy and bit of a control freak, it just seemed like the natural spot for me to end up. So when I stepped into my first management position at Distilled, I was surprised at how hard the transition was. Moving from consultant to manager of a team required a complete change of mindset and challenged me in ways I never expected. Today, I'll be sharing the four things I believe are worth thinking about if you are looking to make the move into management. 

Gut check: make sure you actually want to be a manager

About three months after my transition from London Sales Exec into the Head of Sales role, I had a very frank conversation with Will Critchlow (Distilled's Co-Founder) about my role. He then asked me point blank if I actually wanted to be a manager.

For me, this was a career-changing question. At the time, I was having a tough time letting go of my old responsibilities and moving forward into management responsibilities. I had been working in sales for over six years. I loved the buzz of talking to clients and closing deals. I liked the fact that I was personally responsible for bringing in revenue for Distilled, and I still valued my contribution to the company by the amount of money I could generate. So instead of focusing all my time and energy on how to make my team awesome, I was still spending at least 70% of my time trying to bring in new business. This meant I was essentially doing two jobs, over working myself, and not giving my team the management support they needed.

My answer to Will was, “Let me think about it.” I surprised myself by not going right back to him with a, “Hell yeah, I want to be a manager” response. I spent a few days really thinking about the changes I would need to make if I really wanted to step into a management position. To help me evaluate both opportunities, I made a list of the responsibilities for each. I thought about what it would mean to my day-to-day work, and I asked myself quite frankly, “Will I be happy as a manager?”

I think a lot of people make the mistake of skipping this step. They think that, because management seems like a step up, it is the natural progression they should strive for. But the truth is that management isn’t for everyone. It is a somewhat thankless job that requires a lot of patience, focus, determination, and self-motivation. It isn’t just a progression from a consulting role; it’s a complete job change.

In the end, I decided to challenge myself and devote myself fully to becoming a great manager. I would love to say that from the moment I made that decision everything changed, but to be honest, it took about another nine months before I made the full transition.

So before you eagerly put yourself forward for that management position, ask yourself, “Do I really want to be a manager?” If you are currently a consultant and love working on accounts, would you be happy if your daily responsibilities shifted from being at the heart of the action to becoming the person setting team targets, having line manager meetings, and generally solving problems? Would you miss the thrill of the discovery that only comes from day-in, day-out work with clients? These aren't easy questions, and it is well worth taking the time out to really think about what a move into management means. Rand wrote a great post covering the management vs contributor conundrum, highlighting how management isn't everything and shouldn't be the only growth path within a company.

Transitioning: re-learning how to be a team player

When I was in high school, I was the goalie for my school’s water polo team. This role requires a lot of the same characteristics of a great manager. While everyone knows that it is the goalie’s job to stop the ball from going in the net, it is also the goalie’s responsibility to set plays into motion. However, once the ball is in play, they need to get their ass back to the goal and provide support. From the vantage point in the goal, you can see the whole pool, so it is your job to let the other members of the team know what's going on, but you can’t actually get involved. A goalie is the ultimate support position. Sure, you get credit for any major saves, but you never get credit for the goals your offense scores.

Management is very similar. At Distilled, we subscribe to the belief that good management means being the support for the whole rest of the team, not the other way around. We are avid believers of Joel Spolsky’s support function approach to management.

http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/02/the-management-team-guest-post-from-joel-spolsky.html

As a manager, you have to be constantly aware of everything happening and make yourself available to help, but you need to let your team score their own goals.  A good manager doesn’t take all the great leads/clients; they share their experience and knowledge so their team is able to step up and perform on their own.

Another big mind shift for me in going from a consultant to a manager, was learning to see my team’s success as my success. While I wasn’t out there directly making clients happy, I was supporting a team that was getting results. That is the management win.

Learning to lead: don’t dictate, start a flywheel

We talk about the power of flywheels a lot at Distilled. Building a great team should be approached with the same ideology and methodology as starting a flywheel. The goal is the same: ideally, when you push hard in a consistent direction for a length of time, it seems to get easier and easier to build momentum. With a small team and big targets, it was essential for me to think about how, as the manager, I could push my team to get the best possible results and continued growth for Distilled.

It’s easy to assume that you know what all the right answers are and that your team should do things your way. This was a mistake I made when I first started managing my team. As the first sales person at Distilled, I created a lot of our original sales material. I thought the most successful approach would be to get my team to just use what I built and go out and sell the way I would sell things. That approach worked OK for a while, but it was short-sighted and didn’t allow us to leverage the talent within our team. It also meant I had to be involved with every major deal we did, which limited our ability to speak with a larger number of clients.

So I took a step back. I stopped telling people how I thought they should approach working with a new client, and I started asking them what they thought they should do. I forced myself to stop getting involved in every conversation, and gave my team the space and responsibility to own all the client relationships, only bringing me in when they really need me. Instead of bulldozing in when trying to solve problems, I started to refuse to give my team advice until they told me what they thought a solution looked like.

The results have been amazing. My team has grown in confidence and the work they are doing now is more than twice as good as it was when I was forcing my approach on them. We are talking to more clients than ever before, and were able to double business last year without growing the size of our team.

Getting results: make sure your team knows what is expected of them

As a sales team, it was easy to focus target setting on revenue, but that only looks at part of the picture. If you only focus on the money coming in, you might miss some crucial areas of personal development that need to also be addressed as a manager. While I could use our sales reporting system to see how my team was performing, I couldn’t see if they were happy or achieving what they wanted to in their roles.

The first step I took was to redefine the roles within our team and to set out clear responsibilities of the roles my team currently filled and what progression into more senior roles would look like. I made sure to focus not just on their sales targets, but also team development responsibilities within the role. I put in more ownership-based responsibilities so the team could see how they were a part of the big picture and not just a cog. This helped my team to see exactly what is expected of them and what they can start working on to progress to the next level within the team. It also allowed me to open up conversations with my team on what sideways steps might look like, should someone on the team choose to move in a new direction.

Once I had the roles clearly defined, I sent out a happiness survey to each member of my team. Here are the questions I asked my team.

  1. On a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the best, how happy are you in your roll at the moment? On a scale from 1-5 with 5 being the best, how do you feel you are performing in your role?        
  2. Do you feel like you know what is expected of you in your role?      
  3. On a scale from 1-5 with 5 being the best, do you feel that you are well supported in your roll?        
  4. On a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the best, do you feel you get the support you need from Caitlin?  
  5. What do you feel is your biggest accomplishment in the past 12 months?     
  6. Where do you think you have failed or would like to improve?          
  7. What do you think of the targets set for 2012/2013 (this past year)? 
  8. What are areas you feel like you could use more support in?
  9. What is one thing Caitlin can do for you to support you in your role?           
  10. Do you understand what Caitlin's role is?      
  11. What is one thing you would like to see improve/change/grow for the Client Development team for the New Year?
  12. How would you rank the general quality of leads you have received in the past 3 months?

My line manager Duncan Morris (Distilled CEO) had used a similar tactic with me in our line manager meetings and I found it was a great way to open up conversations about happiness and personal development. In the past when asking my team, “How are you doing?” I tended to get half thought-out answers. Giving them the space to write at length about it and asking them to assign a number to how they felt about how things were going, meant I got much more critical responses. It also allowed me to ask them what I needed to do as their manager to get them to the next level, which forced them to give me critical feedback. This really opened up conversations and has led to better personal development, increased team happiness, and improvements in openness across the team.

Wrapping up

Every company is going to demand different things from its management team, but I found getting the team management side of things right is one of the most important steps I took. It wasn’t until I got that right that I really started to feel like a manager. There have been a lot of lessons along the way and I could probably write another whole post on the challenges of setting targets, managing difficult consultants and clients, and the importance of communication. However, I felt these three things really sum up the major lessons I learned as a person when moving into a management role and are the most transferable, regardless of the type of manager you are looking to be.

If you would like some more references, I found these resources very helpful:

One of the great things about being a manager is that you are always learning and there is always more to think about when trying to help your team grow. I hope sharing my own learning experinces has helped and I would love to hear from others who have advice on how to manage a team effectively.

I'll leave you with an aswer I had to give recently, when someone I was interviewing asked me what I love about my job: For the past four years, I have found my self doing something brand new and challanging every day. No week is the same. Finally, while a manager may not get a lot of credit for all the behind the scenes work you do supporting the team, seeing your team be successful can be supremely rewarding and fulfilling. 

Good luck!


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Seth's Blog : The illusion of choice

 

The illusion of choice

Sometimes, it seems like all we do is make decisions.

Most of those decisions, though, are merely window dressing. This color couch vs. that one? Ketchup or Mayo? This famous college vs. that one? This nice restaurant vs. that one? This logo vs. that one?

Genuine choice involves whole new categories, or "none of the above." Genuine choice is difficult to embrace, because it puts so many options and so many assumptions on the table with it.

There's nothing wrong with avoiding significant choices most of the time. Life (and an organization) is difficult to manage if everything is at stake, all the time.

The trap is believing that the superficial choices are the essential part of our work. They're not. They're mostly an easy way to avoid the much more frightening job of changing everything when it matters.

     

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duminică, 26 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Large Risk of Instability in Japan; Rates Climb Even With Japan Buying 70% of New Issuance

Posted: 26 May 2013 10:00 AM PDT

When political leaders go out of their way to make mollifying statements on the economy, it's a sure thing the opposite is about to happen. Platitudes are flowing in Japan as Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan's central bank governor, says the risk of systemic instability is "not large".

The correct interpretation of course is "the risk of instability is huge". Please consider Haruhiko Kuroda says rates must stay low until economy improves.
Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan's central bank governor, said the country's financial system could cope with rising interest rates only once the economy improved, as he laid out the stakes in his attempt to tame the volatile bond market.

Japanese banks and insurance companies have accumulated vast holdings of government bonds whose value would fall sharply if investors demanded higher yields on newly issued debt. The BoJ calculates that a 1 percentage point rise in rates would lead to mark-to-market losses equivalent to 10 per cent of tier one capital at big banks, and 20 per cent at weaker regional lenders.

Mr Kuroda said he believed that Japanese financial institutions were "strong enough to deal with these negative effects even if such a situation occurred" and that the risk of systemic instability was "not large".

Rates on 10-year Japanese government bonds climbed to 1 per cent last week for the first time in a year. The market has gyrated since Mr Kuroda announced in April that the BoJ would dramatically increase its purchases of JGBs, to the equivalent of about 70 per cent of new issuance, in an effort to stimulate lending and investment and reverse more than a decade and a half of consumer price declines.
Rates Climb Even With Japan Buying 70% of New Issuance

Rates are climbing even with massive purchases by the bank of Japan. That tells you banks and pension plans are attempting to unload existing inventory as well.

There is no one to unload to, except the Bank of Japan. Yet given age demographics, pension plans are now net sellers of Japanese bonds. And Japan is still piling on more debt with a 10-trillion Yen ($128 billion) stimulus package.

Kuroda says "rates must stay low until the economy improves" but in spite of the improvement in the stock market, business investment and demand for loans shrank for the 5th straight quarter.

The only way rates can stay low with this borrowing is if the Bank of Japan buys 100% of new issuance and all existing bonds at a price the central bank likes.

This is theoretically possible, but only if Japan is prepared to suffer the consequences of a collapsing Yen.

Further Reading



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Does it happen for a reason?

 

Does it happen for a reason?

Small children and dogs are certain that everything is aimed at, designed for, or in reaction to them. To quote Jim Holt, "Why does it rain in the spring? So the crops will grow!"

Of course, things that happen often happen for no reason. At least no reason having anything to do with us. Reasons are nearly always the things we make up to explain what happened, not the actual cause of what happened. Whether it's the bird that just messed up your new car wash or the job that you didn't get because a thousand people applied, there's a lot more randomness in the world than we'd care to admit.

There are two things to be done with that fact. The first is to identify the few things that do happen for a reason and learn from them, as opposed to ignoring the available lesson. When cause and effect is at work, figuring out the cause is the single best way to manage the effect.

And the second is to take the (essentially) random events and choose to respond (as opposed to an overreaction). The big opportunity is to figure out how to take advantage of the change that was just handed to us, even if it wasn't for us, about us, or what we were hoping for.

     

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sâmbătă, 25 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Corporate Share Buybacks: How Timely Are They?

Posted: 25 May 2013 08:52 AM PDT

Factset Buyback Quarterly has an interesting series of charts and facts on corporate share buybacks.

Here is my favorite chart in the series.


Aggregate Buybacks: Dollar-value share repurchases amounted to $93.8 billion over the fourth quarter and $384.3 billion for 2012. The fourth quarter total is in-line with that of Q3, but represented year-over-year growth of 9.6%.

Sector Trends: The Information Technology and Health Care sectors spent the most on quarterly repurchases ($19.8 billion and $14.4 billion, respectively) in Q4 2012. However, of the sectors that averaged $2 billion or more in quarterly share repurchases since 2005, the Industrials sector showed the largest sequential and year-over-year growth (30.6% and 59.4%) in dollar-value buybacks.

Buyback Conviction: Dollar-value buybacks amounted to 79.1% of free cash flow on a trailing twelve month basis, which is the largest value since Q3 2008. The Consumer Discretionary and Consumer  Staples sectors both spent more than 100% of their free cash flow (116.7% and 114.2%, respectively). The Energy and Utilities sectors spent $35.8 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, on buybacks, despite generating negative free cash flow (-$25.7 billion and -$23.5 billion). The Consumer Discretionary sector also led all sectors in repurchasing the most shares relative to its size. Over the trailing twelve months, the sector repurchased shares that amounted to 4.5% of the sector's average shares outstanding over the year.
Timing Suspect at Best 

One look at the above chart is all it takes to see most shares are bought back at high prices rather than low prices.

And check out the latest authorizations.
Looking Forward: Program Announcements & Buyback Potential Going forward, several companies in the S&P 500 have authorized new programs or additions of $1 billion or more since December 31st, including Gap (GPS), Blackrock (BLK), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), L-3 Communications (LLL), Visa (V), Allstate (ALL), Moody's (MCO), CBS Corporation (CBS), Dow Chemical (DOW), and AbbVie (ABBV). In addition, even larger authorizations were made by United Technologies Corp. (UTX), 3M Co. (MMM), and Lowe's (LOW), which all announced replacement programs worth approximately $5.4 billion, $7.5 billion, and $5 billion, and Hess Corporation (HES), which announced a $4 billion buyback program on March 4th. Finally, a number of banks were approved to buy back large amounts of common and preferred shares in 2013. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) which was approved for $6 billion in share repurchases, Bank of America (BAC) was approved for $5 billion in share repurchases plus $5.5 billion in redemption of preferred shares, and Bank of New York Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), State Street Corp (STT), and American Express (AXP) were also approved to repurchase greater than $1 billion worth of shares.
Why? Share prices certainly are not cheap.

Much of the buybacks are in conjunction with massive shareholder dilution via stock option grants to executives. The executives continually unload their shares and corporations buy them back.

Buybacks from the last two years generally look good, at least right now. But for how long? 2006 and 2007 buybacks looked good too, up until the crash.

Is this yet another case of "here we go again?"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Penguin 2.0/4 - Were You Jarred and/or Jolted?

Penguin 2.0/4 - Were You Jarred and/or Jolted?


Penguin 2.0/4 - Were You Jarred and/or Jolted?

Posted: 24 May 2013 06:07 AM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

The long-awaited Penguin 2.0 (also called "Penguin 4") rolled out on Wednesday, May 22nd. Rumor has been brewing for a while that the next Penguin update would be big, and include significant algorithm changes, and Matt Cutts has suggested more than once that major changes are in the works. We wanted to give the dust a day to settle, but this post will review data from our MozCast Google weather stations to see if Penguin 2.0 really lives up to the hype.

Short-Term MozCast Data

First things first - the recorded temperature (algorithm "flux") for May 22nd was 80.7°F. For reference, MozCast is tuned to an average temperature of about 70°, but the reality is that that average has slipped into the high 60s over the past few months. Here's a 7-day history, along with a couple of significant events (including Penguin 1.0):

MozCast Temperatures (for 7 days around Penguin 2.0)

By our numbers, Penguin 2.0 was about on par with the 20th Panda update. Google claimed that Penguin 2.0 impacted about 2.3% of US/English queries, while they clocked Panda #20 at about 2.4% of queries (see my post on how to interpret "X% of queries"). Penguin 1.0 was measured at 3.1% of queries, the highest query impact Google has publicly reported. These three updates seem to line up pretty well between temperature and reported impact, but the reality is that we've seen big differences for other updates, so take that with a grain of salt.

Overall, the picture of Penguin 2.0 in our data confirms an update, but it doesn't seem to be as big as many people expected. Please note that we had a data collection issue on May 20th, so the temperatures for May 20-21 are unreliable. It's possible that Penguin 2.0 rolled out over two days, but we can't confirm that observation.

Temperatures by Category

In addition to the core MozCast data, we have a beta system running 10K keywords distributed across 20 industry categories (based on Google AdWords categories). The average temperature for any given category can vary quite a bit, so I looked at the difference between Penguin 2.0 and the previous 7 days for each category. Here they are, in order by most impacted (1-day/7-day temps in parentheses):

  • 33.0% (80°/60°) – Retailers & General Merchandise
  • 31.2% (81°/62°) – Real Estate
  • 30.8% (90°/69°) – Dining & Nightlife
  • 29.1% (89°/69°) – Internet & Telecom
  • 26.0% (82°/65°) – Law & Government
  • 24.4% (79°/64°) – Finance
  • 23.5% (81°/65°) – Occasions & Gifts
  • 20.8% (88°/73°) – Beauty & Personal Care
  • 17.3% (70°/60°) – Travel & Tourism
  • 15.7% (87°/75°) – Vehicles
  • 15.5% (84°/73°) – Arts & Entertainment
  • 15.4% (72°/62°) – Health
  • 15.0% (83°/72°) – Home & Garden
  • 14.2% (78°/69°) – Family & Community
  • 13.4% (79°/70°) – Apparel
  • 13.1% (78°/69°) – Hobbies & Leisure
  • 12.0% (74°/66°) – Jobs & Education
  • 11.5% (88°/79°) – Sports & Fitness
  • 7.8% (75°/70°) – Food & Groceries
  • -3.7% (70°/73°) – Computers & Consumer Electronics

Retailers and Real Estate came in at the top, with just over 30% higher than average temperatures. Consumer Electronics rounded out the bottom, with slightly lower than average flux, oddly. Of course, split 20 ways, this represents a relatively small number of data points for each category. It's useful for reference, but I wouldn't read too much into these breakdowns.

"Big 20" Sub-domains

Across the beta 10K data-set, we track the top sub-domains by overall share of SERP real-estate. Essentially, we count how many page-1 positions each sub-domain holds and divide it across the entire data set. These were the Big 20 sub-domains for the day after Penguin 2.0 hit, along with their SERP share and 1-day change:

  1. 5.66% (+0.29%) – en.wikipedia.org
  2. 2.35% (-0.75%) – www.amazon.com
  3. 2.22% (+3.11%) – www.youtube.com
  4. 1.49% (+6.05%) – www.facebook.com
  5. 1.35% (-8.11%) – www.yelp.com
  6. 0.84% (+4.77%) – twitter.com
  7. 0.58% (+0.37%) – www.webmd.com
  8. 0.58% (+1.87%) – pinterest.com
  9. 0.52% (+1.24%) – www.walmart.com
  10. 0.49% (+4.54%) – www.tripadvisor.com
  11. 0.47% (+0.45%) – www.foodnetwork.com
  12. 0.47% (-0.44%) – allrecipes.com
  13. 0.44% (+1.98%) – www.ebay.com
  14. 0.41% (-0.76%) – www.mayoclinic.com
  15. 0.38% (+1.72%) – www.target.com
  16. 0.37% (-4.37%) – www.yellowpages.com
  17. 0.37% (+0.58%) – popular.ebay.com
  18. 0.36% (+2.12%) – www.huffingtonpost.com
  19. 0.33% (+3.27%) – www.overstock.com
  20. 0.32% (-0.32%) – www.indeed.com

By percentage change, Yelp was the big day-over-day loser, at -8.11%, and Twitter picked up the highest percentage, at +4.77%. In absolute positions, YouTube picked up the most page-1 rankings, and Yelp was still the biggest loser. Overall, the Big 20 occupied 20.00% of the page-1 real estate the day after Penguin 2.0, up from 19.88% the previous day, picking up a modest number of ranking positions.

3rd-Party Analyses

I'd just like to call out a few analyses that were posted yesterday based on unique data, since there are bound to be a lot of speculative posts in the next few weeks. SearchMetrics posted its Penguin 2.0 biggest losers list, with porn and gaming sites taking the heaviest losses (Search Engine Land provided additional analysis). GetStat.com showed a jump in Top 100 rankings for big brands, but relatively small changes for most sites, and most of those changes on pages 3+ of SERPs.
 

Most reports yesterday showed relatively modest day-over-day changes (solid evidence of an algorithm update, but not a particularly big update). One exception was Dejan SEO's Australian flux tracker, Algoroo, which showed massive day-over-day flux. We believe that at least two other major algorithm updates have rolled out in May in the US, so it's possible that multiple updates were combined and hit other countries simultaneously. This is purely speculative, but no other reports seem to suggest changes on the scale of the Australian data.

The May 9th Update

I'd like to also call out an unconfirmed algorithm update in early May. There was a period of heavy flux for a few days at the beginning of the month, which was backed up by webmaster chatter and other 3rd-party reports. Temperatures on May 9th reached 83.3°F. The MozCast 7-day graph appears below:

May 9th Algo Update

The temperature spike on May 5th is unconfirmed, and may have been a test across a small number of data centers (unfortunately, our 10K data for that day was running a separate test and so we can't compare the two data sets). Reports of updates popped up across this time period, but our best guess is May 9th. Interestingly, traffic to MozCast tends to reveal when people suspect an update and are looking for confirmation, and the traffic pattern shows a similar trend:

MozCast May Traffic

Traffic data also suggest that May 5th was probably an anomaly. Private data from multiple SEOs shows sites gradually losing traffic over a couple of days in this period. Unfortunately, we have no clear explanation at this time, and I do not believe that this was directly related to Penguin 2.0. Google did roll out a domain crowding update at some point in the past couple of weeks, which may be connected to the early May data, but we don't have solid evidence either way. At this point, though, I strongly believe that the data indicates a significant algorithm update around May 9th.

Were You Hit by Penguin 2.0?

It's important to keep in mind that all of this is aggregate data. Algorithm updates are like unemployment rates. If the unemployment rate is 10%, the reality for any individual is still binary – you either have a job or you don't. You can weather 20% unemployment if you have a job (although you may worry more), and 5% unemployment is little comfort if you're jobless. I don't want to suggest any lack of empathy for those hit by Penguin 2.0 by suggesting that the update was relatively small, but overall the impact seems to be less jarring and jolting than many people feared. If you were hit, please share your story in the comments.


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