Central Perk

joi, 24 aprilie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 24 Apr 2014 07:05 PM PDT

Japan's CPI spiked to 2.7% this month. What's more interesting is how it was reported in various places.

Less Than Expected

The Wall Street Journal reports Japan CPI Rises Less Than Expected.

A closely watched Japanese inflation gauge rose a bit less than expected in April, the government said Friday, creating room for possible doubts among Bank of Japan 8301.TO +0.81% policy makers that the recent increase in the domestic sales tax would stoke strong upward price movements.

The core consumer-price index for the Tokyo metropolitan area climbed a preliminary 2.7% from a year earlier in April, the largest gain since 1992, according to data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Core CPI exclude volatile fresh food prices.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal and the Nikkei had expected an increase of 2.8%.

While the figure dwarfed a 1.0% rise in the previous month, the big jump was largely due to a sales tax increase of three percentage points that kicked in at the start of this month. By a Bank of Japan measure that cleans CPI data of the effects of the tax change, underlying inflation in Japan's capital was unchanged at a 1.0% increase.

The nationwide core CPI for March increased 1.3%, the same as in February, the Internal Affairs Ministry said. Economists had expected a 1.4% rise.

Tokyo CPI Spikes To Highest Since 1992

The ZeroHedge headline reads: Tokyo CPI Spikes To Highest Since 1992 (Well Above Abe's 2% Target)

If this evening's data from Tokyo on April's Consumer Price Inflation is any guage on the national inflation picture, those hoping for moar stimulus had better start praying for war. Thanks to favorable comps and the April 1st tax rise, Tokyo CPI jumped to 2.9% YoY - its highest since 1992 - and well above the BoJ's 2% inflation goal. Mission accomplished (almost)... except that the economy just won't play ball and now stocks are fading too (along with Abe's approval ratings).

Which story more accurately reflects what happened? I vote for the WSJ.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Verge of War: Ukraine's Foreign Minister says "We are Ready to Fight"; Russia holds Military Exercises on Border

Posted: 24 Apr 2014 11:07 AM PDT

Tensions in Ukraine took another step for the worse today as Russia held military exercises on the border and Ukraine's foreign minister responded "We are Ready to Fight Russia"

Andriy Deshchytisa said Russia's decision Thursday to launch the military exercises "very much escalates the situation in the region."

Talking to The Associated Press in Prague, Deshchytisa says his country has been taught a lesson by Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. He says "having this experience, we will now fight with Russian troops if ... they invade Ukraine."

He says "Ukrainian people and Ukrainian army are ready to do this."

Russia holds Military Exercises on Border

The Financial Times reports Russia Plans Military Exercises After Mounting Ukraine Unrest.

Russia has announced military exercises on the border of Ukraine, hours after Kiev sent in its army to flush out armed pro-Russian rebels in the east of the country raising fears about the worsening crisis.

As tensions on the ground escalated, the war of words between Moscow and Kiev also intensified. Russia's President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine there would be consequences for sending its armed forces into the volatile east to oust separatists from government buildings and checkpoints. Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov retaliated on national TV, accusing Russia of "co-ordinating and supporting killer terrorists".

The two leaders' remarks came shortly after Ukraine's army began a big security offensive against the separatist stronghold city of Slavyansk on Thursday, making good on its vow to crack down on armed rebels holding public buildings in the country's east.

But there were reports that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from a checkpoint north of Slavyansk they had taken over earlier in the day and pro-Russian separatists had moved back in and began to strengthen the position with sandbags.

Tensions have been rising in eastern Ukraine after the tortured body of a local politician – allied to Kiev – was discovered in a river near Donetsk.

Obama Warns Russia Sanctions 'Teed Up'

For sake of completeness, meaningless red line talk comes from president Obama who warns, Sanctions 'Teed Up'

Mr Obama said that it was "a matter of days, not weeks" before new sanctions would be levelled on Russia unless it took decisive steps to reduce the tensions in eastern Ukraine.

The new round of US sanctions is likely to target more of the business figures around the Russian leader Vladimir Putin as well as potentially some banks or state-owned companies. US officials have said that the broader, sectoral sanctions that the White House now has the power to impose are only likely if there is an explicit Russian military intervention in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Danylo Lubkivsky, Ukraine's deputy foreign minister, said on Thursday that it was time to impose new sanctions on Russia. Speaking on a visit to Washington, he said he still hoped for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, but he insisted that "Russia has already crossed a new red line, so we need to impose further economic pressure on the Kremlin".

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former US national security adviser, said that events in Ukraine were quickly spinning out of control. "I fear we are stumbling into a crisis which is unpredictable," he said. "But I still think there is a residual chance for reaching some sort of accommodation."

I still suspect cooler heads will prevail. Let's hope so. Perhaps it would help if Ukraine repeated its offer of amnesty to rebels who lay down their weapons now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

“The Walking Dead” Cast in Real Life

Posted: 24 Apr 2014 05:41 PM PDT

See what all your favorite stars from The Walking Dead look like when they're on and off camera.

Lauren Cohan

Andrew Lincoln

Steven Yeun

Sarah Wayne Callies

Norman Reedus

Laurie Holden

David Morrissey

Denmark Gurira

Chandler Riggs

What is Life Really Like Inside Iran

Posted: 24 Apr 2014 05:22 PM PDT

These pictures will give you an inside look at what it's really like to live in Iran. Get ready, a lot of these are going to surprise you.

Seth's Blog : Is digital the end of luxury brands?

Is digital the end of luxury brands?

Luxury goods as we know them were invented/amplified/regulated by Colbert in the 1600s. At the beginning, luxury goods were better goods--better made, better leather, etc. This was actually a huge insight, and one that generated billions of dollars of revenue over the years.

Over time, as others figured out how to make things just as well as the 'luxury' brands could (the triumph of industrialism), the label on the item, the brand, became at least as important as what was made. The brand is a tribal signifier, a way of demonstrating good taste and a membership in the elite. People pay extra partly for the privilege of paying extra. For a very long time, a sale on luxury goods made no sense, because the fact that it wasn't on sale was precisely what made it a luxury good.

It's this selling of the logo, of Hermes or Chanel or Champagne that made the last fifty years of luxury production such an extraordinary opportunity. Add to this a growing cadre of the newly wealthy, eager for a badge, and it's nearly perfect. Feed the tribe, maintain the value of the logo and you actually get paid a premium for making the thing cost more.

And then, the outlet stores showed up and Ralph Lauren danced the line between mass and class, selling logos big and small, at all price points. When anyone can make a nice shirt, which nice shirt should you pay extra for? H&M took this even further. There's still plenty of money being spent on the expensive, but the concentation of brand impact is diluting, quickly.

Here's what shifted just recently: In the post-industrial connection economy, we often value networks more than we value stuff. We'd rather have a working smart phone than a fancy car. We'd rather be invited to the right conferences than wear expensive shoes. Logos are worth less, easier to copy and not as valuable a tribal signifier as they were.

And yet...

And yet elites (of all kinds) still desire a way to demonstrate their inclusion into certain groups, groups that aren't open to all. And human beings still seek out the best of something, the item that carries with it the magic of a trained hand, of a bespoke origin and of the nostalgia for the special thing we remember.

I don't think think the luxury industry will disappear, but without a doubt, it is changing. Charging more is one tactic, but it might not be the only one.

I'll be speaking on this in Paris in early July. The organizers of the event tell me that code SETH-GODIN-GUEST saves you (ironically) about 30%.