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Now I know you're bluffing.
First, everyone has good ideas. Maybe not as fast or as often as others, but are you telling me that in your entire life, you've never had one good idea? Ever?
Second, and way more telling, what happens if I give you a good idea. Here. Take it. Now what? You have it, right?
Now you need to find a second reason for not making things happen. "I don't have enough time." "I can't get the resources." "I'm not sure, really sure, guaranteed, that this is a good idea." "My boss won't let me."
And so the lizard brain speaks up, and so the cycle continues, and so the Resistance wins.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Common Sense vs. Academic Formulas; Fed Concludes Structurally High Unemployment is a Myth Posted: 08 Nov 2010 11:32 PM PST Ben Bernanke and the Fed have great belief in academic models whether they make any real world practical sense or not. Indeed, Bernanke's reliance on formulas instead of common sense is what told him there was no housing bubble, that unemployment would not get above 8.5%, and that Quantitative Easing in massive force would cause the unemployment rate to drop. He was wrong on all counts. Nonetheless Bernanke is sticking to his models. With a hat tip to Zero Hedge, here is yet another article from the Fed (not Bernanke), that places great reliance on academic formulas. The article concludes structural unemployment is "likely to be transitory rather than permanent". For Academic Wonks Only Academic wonks may wish to consider the San Francisco Fed article Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise? Labor demand has been growing in the United States, reflected in a modest increase in private payroll employment this year and a more substantial increase in private-sector job vacancies over the past 12 months. Despite these signs of improvement, the unemployment rate has declined only slightly. Some analysts have raised the specter of a fundamental mismatch between the supply of labor in terms of workers' skills and demand for labor in terms of employers' skill requirements. Such a mismatch between available workers and available jobs could increase the level of structural unemployment. To the extent that structural unemployment is actually rising, the phenomenon poses a dilemma for policymakers. It cannot be ameliorated through conventional monetary and fiscal policy. And it implies an increase in the lowest unemployment rate associated with stable inflation, often identified by the acronym NAIRU, which stands for the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.If You Understood That Congratulations! If you know what Beveridge Curves are and you understood the article, congratulations, you are an academic wonk. More importantly, If you believe there is any merit in the conclusion, you are a fool. Zero Hedge Chimes In In Your Taxpayer Dollars At Work: San Fran Fed Asks If Structural Unemployment Is On The Rise, Discovers It Isn't Zero Hedge quips ... With unemployment stuck at 10% for about a year now, and with the real unemployment rate probably well over 20% if one removes all the BLS gimmicks, by now it is rather clear even to 2 year olds, that the New Abnormal is one where unemployment of 5% is merely a pipe dream, and that the Fed's attempt to revert to an abnormal mean, and blow the biggest bubble ever in the process, will do nothing to fix what is now a new structural baseline unemployment level. And yet, just to prove that the Fed will take taxpayer money and spend it on the most Captain Obvious topics ever, has just released a paper titled "Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?" Adding insult to monetary injury, paper authors Rob Valetta and Katherine Kuang conclude that not only are worries about a "new normal" misplaced, but that jobs will promptly revert back to old levels. Sure, why not - as we showed previously, it will only take the creation of over 230,000 jobs a month for about 6 years straight to get back to the old unemployment level.Zero Hedge is correct, but let's investigate why that is so. Conditions Have Changed Common sense suggests that if you are going to model data and make predictions based on previous events, current conditions need to be the same. Every one of those curves represents a typical economic slowdown, not a consumer-led credit and housing implosion the likes of which has not been seen since the great depression. Thus, the San Francisco Fed's conclusion is as likely to be correct as concluding a robust housing rebound is likely to start any time based on analysis of housing charts from prior recessions. Well a housing rebound is not likely, and if it's not, neither is a hiring spree, nor a rebound in commercial real estate nor any other meaningful increase in jobs. In short, the study is invalid because conditions have changed. No one has modeled a credit crunch or a housing bust because we have not seen one since the Great Depression. Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade I am not an economist, nor do I place any current relevance in prior Beveridge curves, nor do I think it makes sense to model this recession compared to any other recent recession. I believe that is to my advantage when I made the claim on August 18, 2009 of Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade Harsh Reality From BernankeFed Projects 2012 Unemployment 6.1-7.6% Flashback December 7, 2009: Fed's Unemployment Projections From Mars Fed's 2012 ForecastBeveridge Curve Analysis vs. Common Sense I did not need an analysis of Beveridge curves to trash the Fed's forecast. All I used was a bit of common sense. You can certainly kiss 6.1% by the end of 2012 goodbye. It is highly likely you can kiss 7.6% by the end of 1012 goodbye as well. Moreover, I do not think the top in unemployment rate is in. The only reason unemployment is not above 10% right now is the participation rate has been plunging like a rock (people have been dropping out of the workforce). Heaven help us if the economy slows further, even if it does not technically double-dip. The bottom line is simple: There is still no driver for jobs, there is little likelihood of a driver for jobs, and reliance on academic wonks for economic forecasts is fraught with error. Common sense will triumph over academic formulas, 8 days a week. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Al Gore's Cap-and-Trade Pumpkin Dies, No One Notices, Not Even Glen Beck Posted: 08 Nov 2010 09:31 PM PST After a decade of hype over what amounted to nothing more than a fraudulent taxpayer ripoff, Cap-and-Trade is about to turn into a pumpkin. Glen Beck did not even notice. This begs the rhetorical question If Al Gore's Chicago Climate Exchange Suffers Total Failure, Does the MSM Make a Sound? Global warming-inspired cap and trade has been one of the most stridently debated public policy controversies of the past 15 years. But it is dying a quiet death. In a little reported move, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) announced on Oct. 21 that it will be ending carbon trading — the only purpose for which it was founded — this year.My favorite comment to the article is #9 from B Rubble who writes ... OMG!!!!! How's Al doing? Is he okay? How will this impact his selfless work in saving the planet? More importantly, how will this impact his new digs in California, and his financial support of hotel masseuses willing to release his "second chakra"???? Will a loss of finances result in less settlement monies to Tipper? Will she have to settle on a crappier drum set to replace the ones she's no doubt beat the bejeesus out of during her last few years of wedded bliss to ManBearPig?The death of Cap-and-Trade is one of the reasons I said (in advance) that the election mattered. A slowdown in fiscal insanity was another. So yes, the Mid-Term Election Does Matter - It Really Does In response to Election Predictions - How Big the Blowout? I received a fair number of comments from cynics who say the "election just does not matter, that nothing will change".Barring a late stage appearance by Al Gore's fairy-godmother, cap-and-trade is dead. That is a good thing. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Foreclosure Case May Set Anti-Bank Precedent; Restoring Equity vs. Penalization Posted: 08 Nov 2010 07:23 PM PST Inquiring minds should be quite interested in GMAC Foreclosure Case May Set Anti-Bank Precedent When James Renfro had to stop making payments on his two-story fixer-upper in Parma, Ohio, a suburb of Cleveland, he triggered events that were supposed to result in the forced sale of his home."Restoring Equity" vs. Penalization I am not a lawyer. Indeed I would have a damn hard time being either a defense lawyer or a prosecutor. The former has a duty to get his client off even if he knows full well his client is guilty. The latter pursues cases known to be weak, perhaps even trumped up for political reasons. I would not want to be in either situation. I could not send an innocent man to jail, nor could I defend a client who privately admitted to rape or some other crime yet insisted on a plea of "not guilty". My sense of fairness would not allow it. In this case, a lawyer wants to punish GMAC. I happen to agree with that. Fraud must be punished. Nothing would please me more than to see a bunch of crooks go to jail. However, we must also deal with the issue of "Restoring Equity". Definition of "Equity" By "restoring equity", I do not mean equity in the sense "4. the monetary value of a property or business beyond any amounts owed on it in mortgages, claims, liens, etc." I mean equity as in "3.c an equitable right or claim". In regards to 3.c, there is no dispute that people have stopped paying on their mortgages for months or years. The equitable thing is for those home owners to lose their homes. The idea that homeowners deserve "equity" (principal) writedowns over robo-signing is potty. Notice I said "deserve". I have no idea what a court of law might allow. A court of law is not interested in "equity" (fairness), it is only interested in the rule (interpretation) of the law. What's Equitable? To restore equity in both senses of the word, the ideal solution is to prosecute fraudulent behavior to the full extent of the law, and to otherwise speed up foreclosures, with new laws if necessary. There is nothing "equitable" in forcing lenders to give homeowners a break over robo-fraud. In short, this is what needs to be done: 1. Send the fraudsters to jail 2. Speed up the foreclosure process in cases of default, with new laws if necessary. Anything else is a travesty of justice. What to Expect Expect a travesty of justice in regards to sending fraudsters to jail. Also expect a travesty of justice whereby some judges give breaks to homeowners who successfully game the system over a perverse sense of "justice". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Housing Bubble and Currency Controls in Poland Posted: 08 Nov 2010 11:01 AM PST In response to my article on currency controls and QE feuding in many countries (See South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, China, Volcker Complain about Bernanke's QE Policy), reader Robert has some personal observation on happenings in Poland. Robert writes ... Hi Mish,Poland Stats: 62% of Mortgages, 23.9% of Corporate Loans made in Foreign Currencies In a followup question I asked Robert what percentage of mortgages in Poland were in foreign currencies. Here is Robert's response ... Hello MishThanks Robert! I always appreciate emails like yours so readers in the US can find out what is really happening in Europe. Mortgages denominated in foreign currencies are a disaster waiting to happen, not only for the debtors but to the banks that made the loans. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 08 Nov 2010 08:50 AM PST With Republicans taking control of the House, Ron Paul becomes the senior member on the Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee. Paul looks to raise hell judging from his plans. Those looking for good news amidst the insanity of QEII can find it here: Ron Paul Is About to Totally Revolutionize the House Monetary Policy Panel "I will approach that committee like no one has ever approached it because we're living in times like no one has ever seen," Paul said in an interview with NetNet Thursday.Rubio Supports Balanced Budget Amendment Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, Tea Party backed candidates, both won and both back a balanced budget amendment. Please consider Rubio On A Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment RUBIO: "Growing our economy is essential. We need new jobs in America. New jobs means new prosperity. New prosperity, by the way, leads to more revenue for government. But what would they use this new revenue for?Senator Jim DeMint on the Balanced Budget Amendment Hats off to Senator Jim DeMint for his support of a Balanced Budget Amendment as noted in Senators Call for Earmark Moratorium & Balanced Budget Amendment February 4, 2010That list contains 11 senators who back a Balanced Budget Amendment. We can safely add Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio to the list. Case for Compromise Senator DeMint should capitalize on this opportunity and renew his effort for a balanced budget amendment. The immediate problem however, is that earmarks are a drop in the bucket. Eliminating all of them will not put a dent in the deficit. To tackle the deficit we need to look at all spending including military and entitlements. We also need to eliminate entire departments such as the department of energy and education. The US can no longer afford to be the world's policeman with troops in 140 countries. It is time for Republicans to admit that simple fact and do something about it. My plea to Republicans is to compromise. Cut some military spending in return for cutting some entitlement spending. To stimulate the economy we desperately need to get rid of public union collective bargaining and scrap Davis Bacon. Whatever the Democrats want in return for ending collective bargaining and Davis Bacon would be worth it, even some extra short-term stimulus. I am calling on Senator DeMint and Rep. Ron Paul to introduce new measures to kill Davis Bacon and public union collective bargaining. The time is now. More Scrutiny of Fed Coming Bloomberg reports Bernanke Faces More Scrutiny After Republican Gains With Republicans reclaiming a majority in the House of Representatives and eroding Democrats' hold on the Senate, Tea Party candidates who campaigned in part against the Fed get an opportunity to call Bernanke to task for taking part in the unpopular financial rescues that helped propel them to office.Ultimate Irony Please note the irony in Bernanke's letter to Senator DeMint. Bernanke said audits would "seriously threaten monetary policy independence, increase inflation fears and market interest rates, and damage economic stability and job creation." Bernanke is both a liar and a buffoon. He is a liar because he said he would not monetize the national debt and that exactly what QEII does. He is a buffoon because it cannot possibly accomplish the stated goals as noted in Three Reasons QEII Will "Backfire"; Pavlov's Dogs and the "No Choice" Argument Yet Again. Moreover QEII has annoyed our trading partners as noted in South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, China, Volcker Complain about Bernanke's QE Policy. The ultimate irony is Bernanke had the gall to preach to Senator DeMint about rising inflation expectations when that is exactly what Bernanke is foolishly attempting to do. We do not need to Audit the Fed, we need to Abolish the Fed. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics |
Posted: 08 Nov 2010 08:03 AM PST |
Posted: 08 Nov 2010 07:16 AM PST |
Posted: 08 Nov 2010 12:49 AM PST There's nothing better than a hot chick who loves to dress up like an anime characters. Related Posts: Cosplay Fail Cosplay Girls Vs. Cosplay Guys 25 World of Warcraft Cosplay Girls Cute Female Japanese Cosplayers Jessica Nigri in a Pokemon Costume The Best Cleavage of Comic Con 2010 The Girls of Comic-Con 2009 |
Posted: 08 Nov 2010 12:25 AM PST |
Qantas A380 in Emergency Landing Posted: 08 Nov 2010 12:18 AM PST On 4 November, an Airbus A380 belonging to Australian company Qantas, made an emergency landing at the airport of Singapore. The reason is that one of the plane's engines failure. After the plane took off the engine just shut down. It was reported first that the plane had crashed but later the information confirmed that the aircraft returned to Singapore as a precaution. None of 459 passengers were injured. |
Awesome "Flower Thrower" Costume Posted: 07 Nov 2010 11:56 PM PST George Schakenberg made a great costume of the famous Banksy painting "Flower Thrower". He really did an amazing job and this Halloween it is maybe the one among all the Halloween costumes that was worth wearing. This is a comparison of his costume and the original painting. |
What Zuckerberg Could Buy With 6.9 Billion Posted: 07 Nov 2010 11:48 PM PST A few weeks ago 26 year-old Mark Zuckerberg—the founder of Facebook, for those of you who've been living in a cave—was recently ranked on the Forbes 400 at #35 with 6.9 billion dollars. This is an exceptionally large amount of money. So large, in fact, it can be hard to comprehend, much like the known universe or Christina Hendrick's bosom. Thus we thought it'd be informative to try and put Zuckerberg's billions into a little real-world perspective. Hence, we present: More Infographics. Click to Enlarge. Source: coolmaterial |
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