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luni, 13 mai 2013

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Seth's Blog : The certain shortcut

The certain shortcut

The shortcut that's sure to work, every time:

Take the long way.

Do the hard work, consistently and with generosity and transparency.

And then you won't waste time doing it over.

• Email to a friend •

duminică, 12 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

German Finance Minister Throws Cold Water on Single Bank Resolution Agency; For How Long?

Posted: 12 May 2013 08:19 PM PDT

Germany's Finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has an uncanny ability to tread a very narrow line on formation of an EU banking union. He frequently crosses over the line in both directions but never very far, and never for long.

Every time he gives an inch to solidarity, he quickly takes it back, and vice versa. And here we go again.

Weeks before the European Commission is due to present its plan for a single bank resolution agency and rescue fund, Schäuble threw the plans in doubt with a warning EU bank rescue agency needs treaty changes.

Germany's finance minister has warned that a single EU bailout agency and rescue fund for ailing banks is legally untenable until the bloc's treaties have been overhauled.

In today's Financial Times, Wolfgang Schäuble calls for a "two-step approach" that would leave bank rescues in the hands of "a network of" national authorities until treaty changes can take place.

Mr Schäuble's declaration comes just weeks before the European Commission is due to present its plan for a single bank resolution agency and rescue fund – widely touted as the second pillar in the eurozone's much-vaunted "banking union" – throwing the proposal into doubt even before it is unveiled.

"The EU does not have coercive means to enforce decisions. Its historical roots are young. Its democratic legitimacy could be improved upon," Mr Schäuble writes. "What it has are responsibilities and powers defined by its treaties. To take them lightly, as is sometimes suggested, is to tamper with the rule of law."

Lawyers for the European Commission and the European Central Bank, which has joined Brussels in pushing for quick adoption of a resolution authority after last month's creation of a common EU bank supervisor in Frankfurt, have argued that existing treaties allow for centralising powers to shut down or restructure weak banks.

But Mr Schäuble writes that the treaties "do not suffice to anchor beyond doubt a new and strong central resolution authority". He added that promises to create an authority quickly would cost the EU credibility, saying: "We should not make promises we cannot keep." Even limited changes to EU treaties can take months if not years.

While he acknowledges his "two-step" plan would lead to "a timber-framed, not a steel-framed, banking union", Mr Schäuble said it would be adequate until treaties were changed. However, the ECB has expressed concern about keeping resolution at a national level after centralising bank supervision, saying it would undermine Frankfurt's ability to make independent judgments about a bank's health.

It's crystal clear the banking union proposal is in violation of both the eurozone treaty and the German Constitution, but such things only seem to matter on an on again off again basis. Most likely this is just another election ploy attempting to hoodwink potential AfD party members into thinking CDU/CSU will not let a full-fledged banking union happen without treaty changes.

Given past wishy-washy politics from both Chancellor Angela Merkel and Schäuble, I would not trust this stance one bit if I was a potential AfD voter.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

German Export Machine Hits Skids; Imbalances Intensify: Exports Drop 4.2% YoY, Imports Drop 6.9% YoY

Posted: 12 May 2013 09:59 AM PDT

Eurozone imbalances continue to grow even as German exports slump. Why? German imports slumped even more, and the German current account surplus grew.

Via Mish-Modified Google Translate from Les Echos, please consider Germany's Export Machine Slumps in March.

The German trade surplus grew in March for the third consecutive month in raw data (to € 18.8 billion after € 16.8 billion in February) detailed figures released Friday, yet the report shows much weakness.

First, calculated seasonally adjusted data, the trade surplus fell slightly on a month to € 17.6 billion after € 17.7 billion in February.

Then, based on gross figures published by the Federal Statistics Office, both imports (€ 75.8 billion) and exports (€ 94.6 billion) increased compared with February, annual rate the situation is quite different.

In one year, exports fell 4.2% after a decline of 2.8% yoy in February. As for imports, their decline is stronger and reached 6.9% compared to March 2012.

In one year, German exports to the euro area fell by 7%, while their decline was limited to 2.2% to European countries outside the euro area and 2.6% to non-European countries.

All of the alleged eurozone austerity (there really isn't much austerity as it's mostly tax hikes instead of spending cuts), has not fixed any imbalances.

Germany's trade surplus managed to grow even with a collapse in German exports. Yet, Germany is slowing rapidly along with the rest of Europe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : 2 new articles

Life is full of holes

Every scrutinized historical event fails to hold up to serious inspection.

There's missing evidence. How did he get from point A to point B? Where's the document or the eyewitness or the proof?

Your future opportunities are like this as well. Even at the hottest part of the 1998 Internet run up, skeptics wanted more proof that the internet wasn't merely a waste of time. They wanted all the dots connected, and were happy to keep collecting dots until they were.

For a train to get from one city to another, it makes countless tiny leaps, crossing microscopic chasms that would easily show up if you looked closely enough. That doesn't keep you from getting there, though.

I don't think the right question is, "is the path perfect?"

It's probably, "Is this somewhere I'd like to go?"

It's significantly easier to cross a gap when you have direction and momentum.

• Email to a friend •

Is this spam?

If you have to ask, it probably is.

The essential truth is that spam is always in the eye of the recipient. If you think it's spam, it's spam (if you're the recipient. If you're the sender, your opinion is worthless.) I don't care what the privacy policy fine print says, if someone thinks it's spam, it is.

The best definition of permission marketing used to be messages that were anticipated, personal and relevant. If this is going to be an asset of your organization (and it should be), let's take it to the next, easily measured level: would people miss it if it didn't arrive?

Once you have people looking forward to what you have to say, no more worries about spam. You've built an asset worth owning.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 11 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Expect a Spike in Long-Term Japanese Interest Rates; Currency Crisis Just Around the Corner

Posted: 11 May 2013 06:26 PM PDT

I expect a spike sometime in the near future in long-term Japanese interest rates. People have been saying this for years, but the time may finally be at hand.

The following headline is what tipped me off: BOJ chief expects no spike in long-term Japan interest rates.

Japanese long-term interest rates should not shoot higher as a result of money flowing out of government bonds, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Saturday.

Kuroda added, however, that it would be natural for long-term rates to rise over time if Japan meets its goal of pushing inflation up towards two percent.

He said a shift in funds from Japanese government bonds to stocks and into lending was already taking place but that the BOJ was increasing its balance of JGB holdings at an annual pace of 50 trillion yen.

"The BOJ dealt with short-term volatility in bond prices by adjusting its market operations," Kuroda told reporters after a two-day meeting of G7 finance officials.

"I do not expect a sudden spike in long-term bond yields. In the long-run, if the economy recovers and inflation heads towards two percent, we might see nominal interest rates rise but that's natural."

Currency Crisis Just Around the Corner

When Japanese inflation spikes higher (and it will), the only way the Bank of Japan will be able to suppress long-term rates is to buy every long-term bond on the market.

A currency crisis in Japan is now just around the corner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read Between the Lines: IMF Admits Spain is Bankrupt; Get Your Money Out While You Can

Posted: 11 May 2013 09:38 AM PDT

It should be obvious to anyone reading this blog that Spain is in an economic depression as well as bankrupt. It is equally obviously that eurozone imbalances and a flawed treaty are to blame.

Finding mainstream organizations willing to admit Spain is bankrupt is another matter. Yet today, Jeremey Warner writing for The Telegraph says just that.

Warner says Spain is officially insolvent: get your money out while you still can

I'd not noticed this until someone drew my attention to it, but the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor, published last month, comes about as close to declaring Spain insolvent as you are ever likely to see in official analysis of this sort. Of course, it doesn't actually say this outright. The IMF is far too diplomatic for such language. But that's the plain meaning of its latest forecasts, which at last have an air of realism about them, rather than being the usual dose of wishful thinking.

Let's take the projected budget deficit first. This is expected to decline quite steeply this year to 6.6 per cent of GDP, but that's mainly because the cost of bailing out the banking sector fell substantially on last year's budget. On a like-for-like basis, there has in fact been very little fall in the underlying deficit. And nor on the present policy mix is there ever likely to be, for that's where the deficit is projected to remain until the end of the IMF's forecasting horizon in 2018.

Next year, the deficit is expected to be 6.9 per cent, the year after 6.6 per cent, and so on with very little further progress thereafter. Remember, all these projections are made on the basis of everything we know about policy so far, so they take account of the latest package of austerity measures announced by the Spanish Government.

The situation looks even worse on a cyclically adjusted basis. What is sometimes called the "structural deficit", or the bit of government borrowing that doesn't go away even after the economy returns to growth (if indeed it ever does), actually deteriorates from an expected 4.2 per cent of GDP this year to 5.7 per cent in 2018. By 2018, Spain has far and away the worst structural deficit of any advanced economy, including other such well known fiscal basket cases as the UK and the US.

So what happens when you carry on borrowing at that sort of rate, year in, year out? Your overall indebtedness rockets, of course, and that's what's going to happen to Spain, where general government gross debt is forecast to rise from 84.1 per cent of GDP last year to 110.6 per cent in 2018. No other advanced economy has such a dramatically worsening outlook. And the tragedy of it all is that Spain is actually making relatively good progress in addressing the "primary balance", that's the deficit before debt servicing costs.

I don't advise getting your money out lightly. Indeed, such advise is generally thought grossly irresponsible, for it risks inducing a self reinforcing panic. Yet looking at the IMF projections, it's the only rational thing to do.

Inquiring minds with time on their hands may wish to slog through the 93 page IMF World Economic Financial Survey, Fiscal Adjustment in an Uncertain World that Jeremey Warner mentioned in his article.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Advice for Kids & Your Pinterest Recommendations

Trending on Pinterest...

Is everything related to The Great Gatsby. The remake movie is inspiring pins about 1920s fashion, classic cars, book covers and F. Scott Fitzgerald quotes, but one of the pins we love the most is a simple list of advice he wrote to his daughter in 1933.