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miercuri, 8 septembrie 2010
Daily Snapshot: Rebuilding Our Economy
Answering Your Questions About the Economy
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Seth's Blog : Marketing to the bottom of the pyramid
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Marketing to the bottom of the pyramid
[this short essay (long blog post) is inspired by and related to this video. You can engage one without the other, but they go together.]
Part 1: The bottom is important.
Almost a third of the world's population earns $2.50 or less a day. The enormity of this disparity takes my breath away, but there's an interesting flip side to it: That's a market of more than five billion dollars a day. Add the next segment ($5 a day) and it's easy to see that every single day, the poorest people in the world spend more than ten billion dollars to live their lives.
Most of that money is spent on traditional items purchased in traditional ways. Kerosene. Rice. Basic medicines if you can afford them or if death is the only alternative. And almost all of these purchases are inefficient. There's lack of information, high costs because of a lack of choice, and most of all, a lack of innovation.
There are two significant impacts here: first, the inefficiency is a tax on the people who can least afford it. Second, the side effects of poor products are dangerous. Kerosene kills, and so does dirty water.
Part 2: The bottom is an opportunity (for both buyer or seller).
If a business can offer a better product, one that's more efficient, provides better information, increases productivity, is safer, cleaner, faster or otherwise improved, it has the ability to change the world.
Change the world? Sure. Because capitalism and markets scale. If you can make money selling someone a safer item, you'll make more. And more. Until you've sold all you can. At the same time, you've enriched the purchaser, who bought something of her own free will because it made things better.
Not only that, but engaging in the marketplace empowers the purchaser. If you've got a wagon full of rice as food aid, you can just dump it in the town square and drive away. You have all the power. But if you have to sell something in order to succeed, it moves the power from the seller to buyer. Quality and service and engagement have to continually improve or the buyer moves on.
The cell phone, for example, has revolutionized the life of billions in the developing world. If you have a cell phone, you can determine the best price for the wheat you want to sell. You can find out if the part for your tractor has come in without spending two days to walk to town to find out. And you can be alerted to weather... etc. Productivity booms. There's no way the cell phone could have taken off as quickly or efficently as a form of aid, but once someone started engaging with this market, the volume was so huge it just scaled. And the market now competes to be ever more efficient.
Part 3: It's not as easy as it looks
And here's the kicker: If you're a tenth-generation subsistence farmer, your point of view is different from someone working in an R&D lab in Palo Alto. The Moral Economy of the Peasant makes this argument quite clearly. Imagine standing in water up to your chin. The only thing you're prepared to focus on is whether or not the water is going to rise four more inches. Your penchant for risk is close to zero. One mistake and the game is over.
As a result, it's extremely difficult to sell innovation to this consumer. The line around the block to get into the Apple store is just an insane concept in this community. A promise from a marketer is meaningless, because the marketer isn't part of the town, the marketer will move away, the marketer is, of course, a liar.
Let me add one more easily overlooked point: Western-style consumers have been taught from birth the power of the package. We see the new nano or the new Porsche or the new convertible note on a venture deal and we can easily do the math: [new thing] + [me] = [happier]. We've been taught that an object can make our lives better, that a purchase can make us happier, that the color of the Tiffany's box or the ringing of a phone might/will bring us joy.
That's just not true for someone who hasn't bought a new kind consumer good in a year or two or three or maybe ever. As a result, stores in the developing world tend to be stocked with the classic, the tried and true, because people buy refills of previous purchases, not the new.
No substistence farmer walks to a store or stall saying, "I wonder what's new today? I wonder if there's a new way for me to solve my problems?" Every day, people in the West say that very thing as they engage in shopping as a hobby.
You can't simply put something new in front of a person in this market and expect them to buy it, no matter how great, no matter how well packaged, no matter how well sold.
So you see the paradox. A new product and approach and innovation could dramatically improve the life and income of a billion people, but those people have been conditioned to ignore the very tools that are a reflex of marketers that might sell it to them. Fear of loss is greater than fear of gain. Advertising is inefficient and ineffective. And the worldview of the shopper is that they're not a shopper. They're in search of refills.
The answer, it turns out, is in connecting and leading Tribes. It lies in engaging directly and experientially with individuals, not getting distribution in front of markets. Figure out how to use direct selling in just one village, and then do it in ten, and then in a hundred. The broad, mass market approach of a Western marketer is foolish because there is no mass market in places where villages are the market.
The (eventual) power of the early adopter
This gentleman is a swami, a leader in his village. He owns a d.light lantern. Why? He could fit all his worldly positions into a rollaboard, and yet he owns a solar lantern, the first man in his village to buy one.
For him, at least this one time, he liked the way it felt to be seen as a leader, to go first, to do an experiment. Perhaps his followers contributed enough that the purchase didn't feel risky. Perhaps the person he bought it from was a friend or was somehow trusted. It doesn't really matter, other than understanding that he's rare.
After he got the lantern, he set it up in front of his house. Every night for six months, his followers would meet on his front yard to talk, to connect and yes, to wonder how long it would be before the lantern would burn out. Six months later, the jury is still out.
One day, months or years from now, the lantern will be seen as obvious and trusted and a safe purchase. But it won't happen as fast as it would happen in Buffalo or Paris. The imperative is simple: find the early adopters, embrace them, adore them, support them, don't go away, don't let them down. And then be patient yet persistent. Mass market acceptance is rare. Viral connections based on experience are the only reliable way to spread new ideas in communities that aren't traditionally focused on the cult of the new.
This raises the bar for customer service and exceptional longevity, value and design. It means that the only way to successfully engage this market is with relentless focus on the conversations that tribe leaders and early adopters choose to have with their peers. All the tools of the Western mass market are useless here.
Just because it is going to take longer than it should doesn't mean we should walk away. There are big opportunities here, for all of us. It's going to take some time, but it's worth it. [More info: Acumen]
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marți, 7 septembrie 2010
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- European Credit Stress Returns With Vengeance - Irish, Portuguese Bond Spread at All Time High - Yen Soars - Gold Hits All Time High
- NBER Likely to say "Recession Ended" July 2009; Assessing the Real Time Probability US Back in Recession
- B.J. Lawson Pulls Into Lead in North Carolina Over Democratic Incumbent
- Infrastructure Bank: Obama's Desperate Attempt to Win Midterm Democrat Votes; Stimulus Déjà Vu
| Posted: 07 Sep 2010 07:56 PM PDT The risk aversion trade was back in play today with treasuries, the dollar, the Yen, and gold all rallying while the Euro and European government bonds (except German Bunds) were under significant pressure. Please consider Stocks, Irish Bonds Drop, Gold, Yen Rally on Europe Concern Stocks slid, while Greek, Portuguese and Irish bonds tumbled, gold rose to a record and the yen surged to a 15-year high versus the dollar on concern Europe's debt crisis will worsen. U.S. and German bonds rallied.Another name for the risk aversion play is the deflation play. There is plenty of room for the dollar, treasuries, gold, and German government bonds to rally while the rest of the commodity complex drifts lower. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 07 Sep 2010 12:03 PM PDT One problem with the NBER recession dating analysis is that it is months and sometimes years late in making its assessments. Marcelle Chauvet, professor of economics at the University of California addresses those shortfalls in an interesting article called Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle Although careful deliberations are applied to determine turning points, the NBER procedure cannot be used to monitor business cycles on a current basis. Generally, the committee meets months after a turning point (that is, the beginning or end of an economic recession) has occurred and releases a decision only when there is no doubt regarding the dating. This certainty can be achieved only by examining a substantial amount of ex post revised data. Thus, the NBER dating procedure cannot be used in real time. For example, the NBER announced only in July 2003, twenty months after the fact, that the 2001 recession had ended in November 2001.The Beginning and End of the 2007-2009 Recession Inquiring minds are reading the Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles article dating The Beginning and End of the 2007-2009 Recession The Figure shows the real time probabilities of recession from the Dynamic Factor Model with Regime Switching (Chauvet 1998). The probabilities indicate that the U.S. recession started in December 2007.Review of the Odds Over Time - To Date Marcelle Chauvet updates the odds we are currently in recession in his blog Real Time Probabilities of Recession U.S. Recession ended in June/July 2009 That is a partial table. Marcelle Chauvet shows the odds starting in October 2007. Notice how the odds the US is currently in recession have risen from 2.5% in May to 24.7% in June. Odds Higher Today Than June We will see the odds for August in a couple months. Those odds will be higher than today because of all the recent grim economic data. Bear in mind Chauvet posts the odds we are already in recession. When the current odds are soaring at an amazing rate (which they are), the odds of a going into recession at a future time, will be much higher. Some don't see it that way. Here is a snip is from Bloomberg as discussed in Nonsense from NBER on Odds of Double-Dip Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who sits on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research says "There's still a significant risk, maybe one chance in three, that there will be a double dip." Fellow panel member and Princeton University Professor Mark Watson said those odds are "way too high" and puts them instead at "one in 10 or maybe one in 20."Double-dip odds of one-in-10 or one-in-20? When the odds are roughly 1-in-4 we are already in recession as of June? If Marcelle Chauvet's model is accurate (and assuming the recession is over, his model is the most realistic model I have seen to date), then the above snip was indeed nonsense, not from the NBER per se, but rather from one or two economists who sit on the panel, most notably Princeton University Professor Mark Watson. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| B.J. Lawson Pulls Into Lead in North Carolina Over Democratic Incumbent Posted: 07 Sep 2010 10:47 AM PDT On Sunday, I received an email from B.J. Lawson saying he has pulled into a small lead over incumbent David Price. B.J. Writes ... Dear Friends,Sentiment has indeed shifted. I am starting to expect a blowout in the midterm elections as Voters Strongly Favor Non-Incumbent GOP Newcomers in Midterm Elections. B.J. Lawson Profile Inquiring minds will want to check out where Lawson Stands on the Issues
Those are highlights. Click on the above link for details. David Price, his Democratic congressional opponent in the upcoming election admits to not reading or understanding health care legislation before voting. Lawson says "Passing legislation that is not fully understood, or understandable, is simply legislative malpractice. We must demand better of our elected representatives if we are to restore the trust and legitimacy of our federal government." Charles Goyette Interview Please click on this link to download and play this B.J. Lawson Interview with talk show host Charles Goyette. Money is always welcome, but so is your time and energy! Please click here to Volunteer Time or Services to B.J. Lawson. Please do what you can to support B.J. Lawson. He is of a rare Ron Paul mode, and we cannot afford to let any opportunities to elect such candidates slip through the cracks. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Infrastructure Bank: Obama's Desperate Attempt to Win Midterm Democrat Votes; Stimulus Déjà Vu Posted: 06 Sep 2010 11:40 PM PDT The president's pandering to public unions has backfired and now he wants to create an "infrastructure bank" which would be run by the government but would pool tax dollars with private investment. The New York Times reports Obama Offers a Transit Plan to Create Jobs. President Obama, looking to stimulate a sluggish economy and create jobs, called Monday for Congress to approve major upgrades to the nation's roads, rail lines and runways — part of a six-year plan that would cost tens of billions of dollars and create a government-run bank to finance innovative transportation projects.Mish Comment: What a bunch of crock. If the president was genuinely interested in keeping costs down he would ask Democrats to scrap Davis Bacon and collective bargaining. The White House did not offer a price tag for the full measure or say how many jobs it would create. If Congress simply reauthorized the expired transportation bill and accounted for inflation, the new measure would cost about $350 billion over the next six years. But Mr. Obama wants to "frontload" the new bill with an additional $50 billion in initial investment to generate jobs, and vowed it would be "fully paid for." The White House is proposing to offset the $50 billion by eliminating tax breaks and subsidies for the oil and gas industry.Mish Comment: If the bill was fully paid for the the President ought to have the balls to say how. In simple terms he is either disingenuous or a blatant liar. Is there not even $50 billion in military spending he could cut? Nothing? After months of campaigning on the theme that the president's $787 billion stimulus package was wasteful, Republicans sought Monday to tag the new plan with the stimulus label. The Republican National Committee called it "stimulus déjà vu," and Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House Republican whip, characterized it as "yet another government stimulus effort."Mish Comment: Schwarzenegger and Mayor Bloomberg both have no backbone. Bloomberg panders to unions and until recently Schwarzenegger refused to play hardball. All there are hoping for a large share of the transit plan. There is no shortage of projects in search of money. The problem, analysts say, is that Congress, which would create the bank, is not known for its ability to single out strategic priorities for growth. Instead, it traditionally builds broad support by giving a little something to everybody — Montana, for instance, would get a small amount of Amtrak money in return for its support for improvements along the Northeast corridor.Mish Comment: There is never a shortage of ways Congress can and will waste taxpayer money. This will not change unless and until there is balanced budget amendment. Until taxes have to be raised to fund projects, Congress and any Business Tax relief In addition to the Infrastructure Bank, Obama to Propose Business Tax Relief, Spending to Spur Growth Obama tomorrow will announce an expanded tax incentive to encourage business investment, an administration official said on condition of anonymity. Obama also will urge Congress to extend permanently and expand a research-and-development tax credit for businesses, costing about $100 billion over a decade. He began the rollout of initiatives yesterday in Milwaukee, calling for $50 billion in the first of a six-year program to fix roads, railways and runways and modernize the air-traffic control system.Things are looking very bleak for Obama in the midterm elections, and even Democrats are starting to shy away from many of his policies, including healthcare. For more on Labor Day pandering, please see Labor Day Insanity from Clinton's Secretary of Labor Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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