Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Currency Intervention Madness; Japan Intervenes to Weaken the Yen; Selected Quotes
- 59% of Canadians Live Paycheque-to-Paycheque; Implications of a Canadian Housing Bust; How Sound are Canadian Banks?
- Retail Sales Rise .4% from July - How Far to Pre-recession Levels? Where to from Here?
- Political Debate: What Should Congress do to Stimulate the Economy?
- Shuffling the Commercial Real Estate Deck
Currency Intervention Madness; Japan Intervenes to Weaken the Yen; Selected Quotes Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:45 PM PDT After months of attempting to talk the Yen down, Japan Intervenes First Time Since '04 to Rein in Yen. Japan intervened in the foreign-exchange market for the first time since 2004 after a surge in the yen to the strongest against the dollar in 15 years threatened to stunt the nation's economic recovery.Is Currency Manipulation OK or Not? Both China and Japan are intervening in the Forex markets for the same reason, to strengthen exports and stimulate the economy. Pardon me for asking the obvious question but it needs to be asked: Why does Geithner give the green light for Japan to intervene in the currency markets but China is threatened with a currency manipulator label for doing the same thing? Boosting the Dollar Please consider a few select quotes from the New York Times article Japan Moves to Boost the Dollar JOHN VAIL, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENTBang for the Yen If Japan's exports have been strong, why does Japan need to weaken the Yen to boost exports? If the Problem for Japan is the Korean won, what the heck is Japan doing buying dollars? It certainly would get a lot more bang for the Yen buying Won. TAKAO HATTORI, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, MITSUBISHI UFJ MORGAN STANLEY SECURITIESSheer Madness Takao Hattori says that the Forex market is too big for intervention to work but "it was good for the government to show its strong stance". Excuse me for asking but how can it be good policy to take actions that cannot work? Prior Currency Intervention Madness Please consider Currency Intervention And Other Conspiracies. .... Note those numbers. Japan spent hundreds of billions in 2003 starting in August, attempting to prop up the dollar.It has been proven time and time again that currency intervention does not work. Yet, somehow it is "good for the government to show its strong stance". Line of Defense click on chart for sharper image Note that the "Line of Defense" is right near the 1995 high. Intraday Intervention in Action click on chart for sharper image Some might think the above chart shows that intervention works. It doesn't except possibly in the very short term. In 2008 the Fed intervened multiple time to support Fannie Mae. In one such move, the share price doubled from $7 to $15 in less than a week on a short squeeze. A couple months later Fannie Mae collapsed to a buck. Central banks cannot change the prevailing trend. Assuming Japan was going to have a "line of defense", one near the 1995 is a spot where there would be technical resistance anyway. If the Yen does drop in a sustained way, it will not be because of the intervention, but rather because the Yen had outrun fundamentals and was simply ready to drop. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 14 Sep 2010 05:30 PM PDT In today's Breakfast with Dave, Rosenberg notes "Most Canadians Still Living Like It's A Recession" According to Statistics Canada, Canada's recession was short-lived, beginning in Q3 2008 and ending a year later in Q3 2009. But why doesn't it feel like that for nearly 60% of Canadians?How Big is that Bubble? 10-20% overvalued is overly optimistic. Vancouver in particular could easily see a 40% haircut if not much more. Like Australia, it is more difficult in Canada to "walk away". See Australian Lenders Learn Nothing from US Housing Bust: Mortgage House offer 105% Mortgages, Westpack offers 97% Mortgages for a discussion. Question of Soundness The so-called "soundness" of Canadian banks stems from the fact that Canada's central bank is on the hook guaranteeing the vast majority of residential mortgages. That Canadian banks do not have a skin in the game allows housing bubbles to build over a longer time period and get bigger than they otherwise would. Is that a good thing? For who? The banks or the taxpayers? The answers should be obvious: The ultimate setup is similar to US taxpayers bankrolling Fannie and Freddie for unlimited losses. Alternatively the Canadian Central Bank could print money and paper over the losses. Neither setup is any good. No Escape from Illiquid Greater Fool's Games The most important question is "when will it matter?" There are signs now of hugely growing inventories and that is how a housing bubble always bursts. Nonetheless, it will not matter until it does. When it does matter, it will be sudden and irreversible (as is typical of every illiquid Greater Fool's Game or Ponzi scheme). There will be no escape for underwater sellers, just as happened in the US, with the further restriction that Canadian borrowers simply cannot walk away. The economic implications are enormous with so many living paycheque-to-paycheque already. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Retail Sales Rise .4% from July - How Far to Pre-recession Levels? Where to from Here? Posted: 14 Sep 2010 11:59 AM PDT Inquiring minds are investigating the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for August 2010, noting the discrepancy between what is reported and reality. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 3.6 percent above August 2009.As typical, Calculated Risk has some nice charts of the data. Calculated Risk writes "This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 8.4% from the bottom, but still off 4.3% from the pre-recession peak." Although that is what the data says, I don't buy it. If retail sales were back to within 4.3% of the pre-recession peak, sales tax collections would be back towards the pre-recession peak, if not exceeding the pre-recession peak. Why might they exceed the peak? Because of numerous state sales tax hikes. The Slow Rebound - Very Slow September 02, 2010: State Tax Revenues Slowly Rebound, But ... The Nelson Rockefeller Institute reports State Tax Revenues Are Slowly Rebounding. However, as always, the devil is in the details. Let's take a look. Preliminary tax collection data for the April-June quarter of 2010 show improvement in overall state tax collections as well as for personal income tax and sales tax revenue. However, revenue collections remain significantly below peak levels and are still weak in a number of states.Sales Tax Collections Down 5.9% June 2010 vs. June 2008 In spite of numerous sales tax hikes, tax collections are still 5.9% lower than two years ago. Moreover, June of 2008 was not the pre-recession peak. November of 2007 was the pre-recession peak. Bear in mind the Rockefeller reports are from June and Calculated Risk's charts are for August, but that would barely dent the comparison, if at all. The proper conclusion is that retail sales are down 10% or more from the pre-recession peak, especially if one factors in tax hikes. Many states look at the Census report trying to figure out why their sales are lagging the national averages. The problem is the Census Bureau national averages are a blatant distortion of reality. The key to the states' conundrum is Census Bureau sampling methodology does not take into consideration stores that have gone out of business. Sales tax collections obviously do. Closed stores make no sales and collect no taxes. Major Revision Coming? I wonder how long it will take the Census Bureau to do a major revision, but as it sits, the retail sales report data is totally screwed up and paints a much brighter image of the "recovery" than has actually occurred. In a genuine recovery, new stores would be opening and the data would be off in the other direction, with sales tax collections expanding faster than reported by the Census Bureau. Where to From Here? The number of store closings has probably peaked and that will make census reporting a bit more accurate going forward. Currently all sign point to a renewed consumer slowdown. Thus, I suspect state tax collections will soon start to drop. With census bureau year-over-year comparisons starting to get more realistic, I expect to see that drop show up in the Census reports as well, even though the Census charts will remain totally screwed up from all the store closings in 2008-2009. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Political Debate: What Should Congress do to Stimulate the Economy? Posted: 14 Sep 2010 10:30 AM PDT On the Department of Education Opening Statements Closing Statements In 2010 voters have a choice: David Price - Congressman David Price is a Political Science Professor, 22-year incumbent politician who supports government bailouts, social welfare programs, protecting the environment and Obama's Health Care reform. He votes with Nancy Pelosi more than any other congressman. or B.J. Lawson - William B.J. Lawson is a Constitutional Conservative, father, Medical Doctor, engineer and small businessman who supports reducing taxes, cutting spending and repealing unconstitutional legislation. 4th district voters will choose principle over Washington rhetoric this November. Money is always welcome, but so is your time and energy! Please click here to Volunteer Time or Services to B.J. Lawson. Please do what you can to support B.J. Lawson. He is of a rare Ron Paul mode, and we cannot afford to let any opportunities to elect such candidates slip through the cracks. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Shuffling the Commercial Real Estate Deck Posted: 14 Sep 2010 01:00 AM PDT According to the Star Tribune the Minneapolis suburban office market suffers from 20 percent vacancy rates. Recent large deals have done nothing to dent that glut of inventory. Please consider Deals don't make dent in the southwest metro's empty offices Several high-profile office leases have been signed in the Twin Cities' key southwest submarket this year, grabbing headlines and generally giving the impression that things might not be as bad as they seemed in terms of vacancies.Deflationary Pressures Companies are moving at the drop of a hat to get better rates or a better location for the same price. The effect of this is of course deflationary, adding to price pressures and more commercial real estate defaults. Remember that commercial real estate lags residential and residential real estate has not yet bottomed, and indeed may not bottom for years. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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