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Jackson Browne gave us that advice. He would rather have you explore.
Exploring helps you figure out what you can do the next time you present or perform or interact. Rehearsing, on the hand, means figuring out exactly what you're going to do so you can protect against the downside, the unpredictable and the embarrassing.
I'm not dismissing study, learning, experimenting or getting great at what you do. In fact, I'm arguing in favor of this sort of hard work. No, I'm talking about the repetition of doing it before you do it, again and again. Just drilling it in so you can regurgitate later. Better, I think,as they say, "...let's do it live."
A well-rehearsed performance will go without a hitch. An explorer seeks the hitches, because hitches are the fissures and chasms that help us leap forward.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Flattens; Huge Divergences Appear - What Does It Mean? Posted: 15 Sep 2010 02:32 PM PDT Inquiring minds are digging into details of the September Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey for clues on the economy. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions held relatively steady in New York's manufacturing sector in September. The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.Selected Empire State Charts ![]() Current Business Conditions ![]() Expectations Six Months Ahead ![]() Divergences Current conditions have stabilized while future expectations continue to deteriorate, five consecutive months. Did we just see a "last gasp" in new orders and shipments? Stabilization? More interesting yet is the way in which the current conditions index has "stabilized". A tip of the hat to reader "Ronald" who writes... In the ten years of data they have on their website, this is the first time I have seen the percentage of businesses showing increases and the number of businesses showing decreases in general activity both increased 2 months running. Moreover, this is the 3rd lowest level of businesses conditions staying at the same level. Finally, when businesses showing deteriorating conditions reached 30 percent, it has typically been during recession and the index has historically been between 0 and -10.A quick check shows the following. July: This month, 27 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved, while 22 percent said that conditions had worsened. August: Roughly 30 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. September: Almost 35 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month—up from the 30 percent who had said so last month, but the percentage that reported worsening conditions increased from 22 percent in August to 31 percent." The reports actually show consecutive rises in improved conditions with a one month huge rise in deteriorating conditions. Nonetheless, how long can a third of businesses report better conditions with nearly a third of businesses reporting worsening conditions? In conjunction with future expectations falling 5 consecutive months to the lowest level since March 2009, I suggest "not long". Look for these divergences to break to the downside, most likely in a strong way that will surprise the vast majority of economists who never bother to look at the details in these reports. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 15 Sep 2010 10:53 AM PDT The small upward correction in home prices from multiple tax credit offerings died in July. Worse yet, inventory of homes for sale as well as shadow inventory both soared. 8 million foreclosure-bound homes have yet to hit the market according to Morgan Stanley. Home Prices Drop in 36 States CoreLogic reports Growing Number of Declining Markets Underscore Weakness in the Housing Market without Tax-Credit Support CoreLogic Home Price Index Remained Flat in JulyCoreLogic HPI Including Distressed Sales ![]() See the above article for additional charts Beazer Homes Warns on Orders The Wall Street Journal reports Beazer Homes Warns of Order Miss Beazer Homes USA Inc. said Wednesday it might miss order expectations for its fiscal-fourth quarter, as it also cut estimates for the year's land and development spending, reflecting the sector's weakness following the expiration of home-buyer tax credits.Inventory Soars Bloomberg reports U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Supply Gains The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market.I disagree with Herb Blecher. I see little advantage stretching this mess out for a decade, and that is what the government seems hell-bent on doing. Everyone wants the government to "do something". Unfortunately tax credits stimulated the production of new homes, ultimately adding to inventory. Prices need to fall to levels where there is genuine demand. The short-term rise in the Case-Shiller home price index and the CoreLogic HPI was a mirage that will soon vanish in the reality of an inventory of 8 million homes that must eventually hit the market. Lost Decade About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders by the end of next year, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. He estimates prices will drop 5 percent by 2013.Home Price Pressures
Last Bubble Not Reblown After the bottom is found, remember the axiom: the last bubble is not reblown for decades. Look at the Nasdaq, still off more than 50% from a decade ago. The odds home prices return to their peak in 10 years is close to zero. Houses in bubble areas may never return to peak levels in existing owner's lifetimes. Zandi is way overoptimistic in his assessment of 3% annual appreciation after the bottom is found. Price Stagnation I expect small nominal increases after housing bottoms, but negative appreciation in real terms as inflation picks up in the second half of the decade. Yes, deflation will eventually end. Alternatively the US goes in and out of deflation for a decade (depending on how much the Fed and Congress acts to prevent a much needed bottom). Either way, look for price stagnation in one form or another. Thus, if you have come to the conclusion there is no good reason to hold on to a deeply underwater home, nor any reason to rush into a home purchase at this time, you have reached the right conclusions. Hyperinflation? Please be serious. When Will Housing Bottom? Flashback October 25, 2007: When Will Housing Bottom? On the basis of mortgage rate resets and a consumer led recession I mentioned a possible bottom in the 2011-2012 timeframe. See Housing - The Worst Is Yet To Come for more details.When I wrote that in 2007, most thought I was off my rocker. Now, based on inventory, I may have been far too optimistic. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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What You Need to Know About the #NewTwitter Posted: 15 Sep 2010 04:11 AM PDT Posted by JoannaLord Well yesterday was a big day on Twitter, wasn't it? I don't know about you but I was glued to the live stream of the not-so top secret Twitter press conference at exactly 3:30 pm and watched closely for an hour and a half while @Ev and @Biz told us all about the new "bigger and better" Twitter.com. The founders outlined many of the recent achievements they have seen with the growth of their community and announced the release of a brand new interface for Twitter.com, which will be rolling out to all users over the new few weeks (it's important to note that currently only 1% of users have access to the redesign, that decision was not so well received.) The new interface has a renewed focus on the user experience with in stream multi-media expansions, more search capabilities, and an all around sexier more fluid feeling. I went crazy yesterday playing with the new interface and wanted to share way too many screenshots and my thoughts on the new layout. I am excited to hear what you guys think all of these changes mean, so let's do this, shall we? What are the big changes to our beloved Twitter.com? 1. Redirect users back to THEIR WEBSITE – Whoa! I have to admit I got a little fiesty yesterday when I saw my stream fill up with tweets that said things like "that is it?!" and "its just a new interface, what's the big deal?!" Twitter has over 160 million users, but as we all know many of those users use second party Twitter clients rather than the web interface itself. Ev noted yesterday at the conference that Twitter mobile users are up 250% year over year, which was the motivation for them to release their own mobile apps earlier this year. While this mobile surge has meant huge growth for the community it hasn't done as much for their on-site value. The announcement yesterday was important because it was their first real attempt to redirect those millions of users to a more compelling on-site experience. Whatever the long term goal is for Twitter.com the website, yesterday's announcement was a huge step toward a more united community of users. This.is.a.big.deal.folks. (The new Twitter.com... ohhh pretty!) 2. A whole lot more space for .... uhmmmm advertisements? So now that we have refocused our attention and time back to Twitter.com what will they do with it? Well sell us things obviously. As you can see below there sure is a lot more space for Twitter to fill. You will notice the "Sponsored Tweets" and the "Who to Follow" elements are more prominent. In addition to that you will see some open areas (that look a lot like traditional ad space units) laced throughout the platform. In general I think its pretty clear that they used this UI redesign to give themselves more options for the up and coming advertising platform we keep hearing about. (Notice all that space they get to play with!) 3. Focus on other tweets, searches…you know uhmmm NOT your tweet During the press conference Ev mentioned specifically that Twitter is a unique community of users in that not everyone actually tweets. He noted plenty of people use it just to listen or research...very "search enginey" if you ask me (yes I just made that word up). The new design certainly focuses less on my actual tweet and more on the experience I am having as a Twitter user. You will see the "search box" was moved to top right, and has much more functionality than previously. I can see tweets with my searched word(s), "tweets with links" & that word, "tweets near me" with that word, and see profiles or people that include that searched word. This is a far better experience all around if you ask me, again compelling users to stay on Twitter.com rather than leave and search elsewhere. Smart move people, smart move. (New search experience...man I love Pumpkin Spice lattes from Starbucks) 4. Media, media, media oh my! This is probably the change you are hearing most about. The new platform has the ability to view pictures and video in stream, by expanding from the left column (your tweet stream) to the right column (now used more as an expanded view). In addition to seeing whatever multi media you clicked on you will also see people mentioned in the tweet you expanded, a brief history of that user's tweets, and the latest tweet that tweet may have been in response too. Uhmmm sound confusing? Basically the expanded view of any tweet is now much more of a comprehensive story of that tweet. No longer on the web client will you be clicking from profile to profile to read a full conversation and get context. This new layout has put the story of a tweet together for you in one place. It's smooth, trust me...you will like it! (The new platform when you expand an image... Hi Matt!)
(The new platform with expanded video...ohhh puppy!) 5. All sorts of other little things
That about sums up the big changes I am seeing. As for what it all means? I think this is a renewed focus on Twitter.com - the site not Twitter - the company. Both Evan and Biz alluded to lots of changes coming down the pipeline, and there is a clear energy of excitement in the stream. I don't know about you but I am certainly going to playing around more on the web interface both as a user and a marketer. I think we will have some interesting opportunities coming our way...uhmmm both as users and as marketers ;) Looking for other insights? |
Build Your Own Weighted Sort (GA Style) Posted: 14 Sep 2010 11:26 AM PDT Posted by Dr. Pete If you're a Google Analytics fan, you probably already know that Google released a new and incredibly useful featured called Weighted Sort. If you haven't seen it, here's a quick example – let's say you want to know which of your referring sites have the highest bounce rate. You could pull up your referrers, sort by bounce rate, and get something like this: Fascinating, right? I now know that I lost 7 visitors due to 5 sites. If I could just get that bounce rate down to 60%, I'd have 3 more visitors. Wow. What did you really want to know, intuitively? Probably something more like this: That's better – it's not the absolute highest bounce rate you wanted to know about, but the most important high bounce rate referrers. In a nutshell, that's the question weighted sort tries to answer. How It WorksSo, how does weighted sort work, exactly? Avinash Kaushik wrote a fascinating and very transparent post on the method behind Google's weighted sort algorithm. I encourage you to read his post and I don't want to copy it, but I'll try to do a very basic review here. Google uses something called the "Estimated True Value" (ETV). ETV essentially says this – if the count column of the sort (in this case, Visits) is very low, assume that the column of interest (Bounce Rate) is roughly the average for the data in question. In other words, if a row has 1 visit and the average bounce rate is 75%, then set the ETV of bounce rate for that row to 75%. Since 1 visit isn't enough, statistically speaking, to make any really conclusions, we'll essentially ignore it. On the other end of the spectrum, if you have a very high visit value, assume the bounce rate is accurate as is. Simple enough, right? What about values in the middle? Well, Google sets the ETV somewhere in between the average and the row's bounce rate. Exactly how much of each they use is the tricky part. The EquationThis is where Avinash's post ends and mine really begins. I should warn you – it's not going to get Ben-complicated, but there is going to be some math. After a bout of 4am insomnia, I pieced together a simplified weighted sort equation. I'm going to present it first, explain it, and then provide an Excel spreadsheet with some real-life examples. Let's assume we've got a data set exactly like above – visit counts and bounce rates for a set of referring sites. We're going to need 4 sets of variables:
For any given row, the ETV of Bounce Rate – ETV(B) – can be represented by the following equation: ETV(B) = (V / MV * B) + ((1 - (V / MV)) * AB) Crystal clear, right? It's not really as bad as it looks. Let's take an example – say we have the following data (same 4 variables as above):
The ETV(B) will consist of two components:
Pay attention to the parts in bold – since 100 visits is 20% of the max visits for this data set, this row gets 20% of its bounce rate from the actual value and the rest (80%) from the average value for the data set. So, essentially, how much we use the "real" bounce rate for the row is a function of the proportion of that row's visit value to the visit value of the top referrer. Build Your OwnWant to try it yourself? You can download my Excel spreadsheet and see the formula at work across a larger data set of actual referring visits from my own site. Although this replicates a function you already have in Google Analytics, it can be used for all sorts of applications that you don't have in GA, including PPC metrics (Visits by Quality Score, for example). There are actually four sheets in the Excel workbook:
Those last two require a bit of explaining. In my very simple model (1), I calculate the average bounce rate by just taking an average across all the rows (for this data set = 70.6%). The thing is, that's not how Google calculates the average bounce rate. They actually weight it by the number of visits, which makes perfect sense. So, in Google Analytics, my bounce rate for this data set is 74.6%, which is what (3) shows. If you compare (2) to (3), you'll see that my weighted formula only differs in the Top 10 by rows #8 and #9 being swapped. My approach is a pretty good approximation for this data set, but it's still just an approximation. If you have a very large range of visit values (1 to 100,000), you might find that rows with smaller but still interesting counts (1,000+) get unfairly ignored. Sheet (4) is a more complex formula that uses the Log (base 2) of visits instead of the raw visit value. This has the effect of de-emphasizing the visit count in favor of the "real" bounce rate for that row. If you're still with me at this point, I hope you'll play around with the spreadsheet. If you find issues with your own data sets or discover some better/cooler way of doing it, please share it in the comments. |
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