Central Perk

duminică, 3 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Long-Wave, Fixed Investment, Inventory, and Demographic Cycles all Downwardly Converging
Sunday Funnies 2010-10-03 World's First Bureaucrat; Cobb County Georgia Spends $78,000 on Mules Jack and Jill, has Second Thoughts, Finds No Buyers
California Legislature and Schwarzenegger Agree to Kick the Can; Corporations Vote with their Feet
Government Share of Personal Income Tops 30%

Long-Wave, Fixed Investment, Inventory, and Demographic Cycles all Downwardly Converging

Posted: 03 Oct 2010 11:06 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are reviewing a chart of Total Loans and Leases and also a chart of Quarterly Real Final Sales of Domestic Product for clues about the strength of the alleged recovery.

After a review of the charts, my friend "BC" shares some of his thoughts regarding the converging Long-Wave, Fixed Investment, Inventory, and Demographic Cycles. The possibilities are not pretty.

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product

Year	Annualized QoQ	Annualized YoY
Q2 '08	+1.10%	+1.80%
Q3 '08	-3.90%	+0.15%
Q4 '08	-4.60%	-1.93%
Q1 '09	-3.90%	-2.86%
Q2 '09	+0.22%	-3.07%
Q3 '09	+0.41%	-2.00%
Q4 '09	+2.07%	-0.33%
Q1 '10	+1.06%	+0.94%
Q1 '10	+0.90%	+1.11%
Avg.	-0.74%	-0.69%
Avg Since Q1 '09	+0.13%	-1.04%

Total Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks

My friend "BC" writes ....

US GDP Poised to Contract

The trend rate of bank lending and money supply ex incremental annualized government spending implies that the private sector probably decelerated to around 0% or slightly negative early in Q3 and is poised to contract again hereafter.

Consider what real final sales/demand would have been had the government not borrowed and spent 30% of private GDP over two years.

The average trend rate of real final sales since the secular '00 peak is 1.6% vs. the average long-term trend rate of 3.4%.

This means that the US economy has experienced a 14-15% decline (24-25% per capita) in real final sales/demand below what would have otherwise occurred had the long-term trend rate continued from the secular peak. Were the trend to persist through the rest of the decade, as the secular LW (Long-Wave) debt-deflationary precedent implies, the loss of US real final sales/demand from the long-term trend rate will be 30% (~40% per capita), which is likely to be the level at which the US labor market underutilization rate eventually reaches.

Downwardly Converging Cycles

Moreover, we are likely completing a weak Kitchin Cycle (inventory rebuilding) as a part of the simultaneously downwardly converging Kondratiev Cycle (Long-Wave), the Juglar Cycle (fixed investment), and the Kuznets Cycle (demographic swings).

If so, the post-'00 trend rate will likely decelerate well below the 1.6% rate to around the 1% rate or lower, implying the risk that real final sales/demand will be 35-40% (as much as 45-50% per capita) below the long-term pre-'00 trend rate by the late '10s or early '20s.

Note that bank loans grew 9%/yr. (5-6% in GDP deflator terms) from after WW II to the absolute peak in '08 and 7% from '74 and '82 (4-5% deflated), whereas real final sales grew 3.2% from after WW II to the peak in '08 and 2.9% from '74 and '82.

A deceleration of real final sales/demand of 35-40% or so below the long-term trend implies a similar scale of decline in bank loans of 35-40% (-4%/yr.) from the secular '08 peak to converge by '20 with the longer-term trend growth of final sales from the onset of the secular reflationary phase in the early '80s.

As mentioned earlier, the loss of growth of final sales/demand per capita from the secular peak will be closer to 50%, which is approximately the scale of decline per capita likely to have occurred from the '85 secondary peak for US oil production by '20.

The loss of bank loans and final sales/demand, with total government /GDP of 36-37% (and 56-57% of private GDP), implies a combined loss of GDP and resulting government receipts totaling no less than 8% of GDP or $1.1T/yr. avg. in federal deficits for the decade just to keep nominal GDP from contracting.

Loan Growth and PE Contraction

Growth of bank loans, final sales, and thus GDP and corporate earnings will have decelerated from the 6-7% secular bull and long-term trend to 4% by 2020. The implication for stock prices given the tendency for the P/E to contract and earnings to track GDP is for the SPX to fall to the 300s-400s at some point.

Unfortunately, by the late '10s to early '20s, the doubling or more of the US debt held by the public will have a net interest burden reaching and then surpassing 25% of government receipts (absent large tax increases and/or cuts in spending).

The larger the deficits in the meantime, the sooner the US government will reach the fiscal day of reckoning.

Please note that the above analysis is not a prediction that the S&P 500 will fall to 300. Many things can happen along the way.

However, it is important to keep an open mind on these things.

The S&P 500 certainly could fall that low. Moreover, were it to do so, it would be consistent with the convergence of the various cycles as described above, and it would also be consistent with Japan's Two Lost Decades.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Sunday Funnies 2010-10-03 World's First Bureaucrat; Cobb County Georgia Spends $78,000 on Mules Jack and Jill, has Second Thoughts, Finds No Buyers

Posted: 03 Oct 2010 08:12 PM PDT

In a belated edition of "Sunday Funnies" please consider Mules Jack and Jill  run up $78,000 bill

Cobb County taxpayers became the proud owners of two mules in August 2009. County officials bought the animals to put them to work on a proposed historic farm, a living museum where schoolchildren would learn how farmers tilled the land a century ago.

But Cobb put the cart before the horse. Or rather, the mules before the farm.

Several key steps in the development of historic Hyde Farm had not been completed by the time the county bought the mules. More than a year later, some are still not resolved.

In the meantime, Cobb taxpayers have footed the bill for $78,000 on the mules in the past year — including purchase price, a caretaker, food and other expenses. With the cost rising, the county has been trying to sell the mules since June but has not found a buyer.

The problems don't surprise the Alabama farmer who sold the animals to Cobb officials.

"Most of that bunch, you know, they didn't know a mule from a donkey," said Terry LeDuke of Vincent, Ala.

While $78,000 is a tiny fraction of the county budget, that amount could have covered the price of building a medium-size playground or a pavilion restroom structure at a county park. And the episode demonstrates how poor planning can lead a government to get in over its head.

Once purchased, the mules quickly started racking up other expenses that now stand at $63,490, the largest of which was $25,488 to pay a caretaker to feed, groom and exercise the animals. The caretaker, Cindy Cason, is the wife of a county transportation department employee, Randy Cason.

County workers also spent 701 man hours — an estimated cost of $15,000 in taxpayer money — to work on four different mule-related projects.

For three months, county staffers have been trying to find a new home for Jack and Jill. They are advertising them on eBay, Craigslist and several specialty mule websites but are not getting good offers for them, Canon said.

LeDuke, the Alabama man who sold Cobb the animals, said it's a bad time to sell mules. "Ain't no market for them. Right now, it's winter coming on and somebody's got to feed them all winter."

LeDuke told the county he'd be willing to buy the mules back for $3,000 — less than half of what he sold them for.

When LeDuke learned how much Cobb had spent on his former animals in the past year, he said, "Good God almighty ... That's a bunch of [expletive]."

Archeologists Unearth Bureaucrat

It's very difficult to top that story but in honor of government bureaucrats as well as government mules and jackasses, here is this week's cartoon feature.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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California Legislature and Schwarzenegger Agree to Kick the Can; Corporations Vote with their Feet

Posted: 03 Oct 2010 06:11 PM PDT

The budget impasse in California is over. The governor and the legislature agreed to a "compromise" that does essentially nothing and solves no long-term problems.

Please consider California Budget Deal Ends Impasse With Vote Expected in Days

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and top lawmakers came up with a compromise to close a $19.1 billion deficit and give the state a budget, ending a record three-month impasse with a vote expected next week on the spending plan.

The accord doesn't raise taxes, as sought by Democrats, nor does it dismantle the state's welfare system, proposed by Republicans, the leaders said yesterday. Passage of the plan would clear the way for Treasurer Bill Lockyer to borrow about $10 billion on Wall Street by issuing short-term notes needed to pay bills until tax revenue comes in later in the year.

Legislative aides briefed on the details said last week's framework cuts spending by around $8 billion, less than the $12 billion the governor had proposed, and holds education spending about the same as last year's level, around $49 billion. The framework also would suspend for two years a tax break that let companies deduct part of net operating losses in a previous year from current-year taxes, said the two people briefed on it.

Nothing was solved by this "compromise". The state's massive welfare system is still intact, the massive pension problem was shoved aside, and the bloated state prison system was not even discussed.

Instead, the state will borrow $10 billion of the $19 billion it needs, hoping the revenue comes in later. It won't. California will be back at this next year with a different legislature and governor in place.

Perhaps democrats can win the Governor's office and enough seats in the legislature to raise everyone's taxes enough to support more free give aways to unions, illegal aliens, and other groups with their hands in taxpayer pockets.

Corporations Vote With Their Feet

Wealthy taxpayers and corporations are not bothering to wait for the vote. They have had enough. Nevada News and Views reports Companies Fleeing California For Utah Over Confiscatory Tax Rate

Computer software giant Adobe, computer game monster EA Games, and Internet auction king ebay are abandoning California to set up shop in Utah. Why? California's horrid business climate and high taxes.

Adobe Systems, maker of a suite of graphics programs such as Adobe PDF, Illustrator, Photoshop, and InDesign, have announced that they are building a $100 million facility in either Salt Lake City or in nearby Utah County, Utah. The facility will bring thousands of jobs to Utah over the next few decades.

In May the Internet auction company ebay also announced a major new facility to be built in Salt Lake City. The $287 million data center will also bring hundreds of new jobs to the Bee Hive State.

Not to be forgotten, games maker Electronic Arts opened its new facility in July in Salt Lake City where around 100 employees are already at work.

These companies fleeing California's horrid business climate are not alone. There has been a steady flow of businesses out of California for the better part of a decade. As California's political morass worsens, as its budget woes increase, and as her politicians are proven incapable of making the hard budgetary decisions to take power from unions and chop unnecessarily lavish social programs, the state's jobs are bleeding out. California is an a freefall the end of which is still unseen.

It should be noted that Utah is a right-to-work state.

The article mentions by name, about 70 companies that have left California. Many of the names are highly recognizable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Government Share of Personal Income Tops 30%

Posted: 03 Oct 2010 09:29 AM PDT

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported US Stocks Rise, Boosted By Upbeat Income, Spending Data

The U.S. Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.4% in August after rising the same amount in July. Incomes, meantime, increased by 0.5% in August after a 0.2% rise in July. The numbers were slightly better than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast spending and income would both climb by 0.3% in August.

Not only is the data from August, but raw numbers without an explanation as to what really happened paints a very misleading picture.

Jed Graham at the Capital Hill Blog explains how Government Propped Up Personal Incomes In August

News accounts are highlighting the fact that the 0.5% increase in personal income in August was the biggest of the year. But the data weren't evidence of a healthy and sustainable private-sector expansion.

Government transfer payments accounted for 60% of the increase, and the government share of personal income crept further into record territory at just over 30%. That's up from just above 25% before the recession.

Transfer payments include Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Food Stamps - now called Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) , medical insurance (Medicaid and Medicare), and housing assistance.

Transfer payments are social schemes to redistribute the wealth. However, given the US is running an enormous deficit, one can argue these schemes are funded by the government printing money and giving it away.

Regardless of how you look at it, government share of personal income at 30% is outrageous. Moreover, more than half of that 30% is transfer payments, an equally outrageous happening.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Your ecosystem

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Your ecosystem

The tropical acacia tree has hollow thorns, nectar and protein-producing leaves. All perfect for the stinging ants that live inside the thorns and eat the nectar and the leaves.

And what's in it for the tree? The ants keep birds and other pests away, as well as killing off small shoots that might grow into competitive trees (ht: Jerry Coyne).

The ecosystem combines two elements that can't live without one another. Each produces something the other needs.

Too often, businesses (and freelancers) focus on making it on their own. In fact, the secret of being indispensable is making it together.

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sâmbătă, 2 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

University of Oregon President Begs Legislators for $800 Million and Says "We are Not Asking for More Money"
Saturday Listening and Reading: Bill Fleckenstein, Art Cashin, Ben Davies, Hugh Hendry
250,000 Stimulus Jobs Set to Vanish; Firing Bureaucrats in NY Easier Said than Done; Seeking Jobs "Nobody Else Wants to Do"

University of Oregon President Begs Legislators for $800 Million and Says "We are Not Asking for More Money"

Posted: 02 Oct 2010 09:12 PM PDT

The liar-whiner of the week award goes to University of Oregon President Richard Lariviere who wants the state to float $800 Million in bonds because "We have to do something."

Please consider University of Oregon President Richard Lariviere asks legislators for $800 million in bond money.

An impassioned University of Oregon President Richard Lariviere made his pitch before legislators today for funding his university with $800 million in state-issued bonds.

If the university does not find a new way to raise money, tuition will keep climbing an average 7.5 percent per year, as it has for the past 38 years, he said. That means annual tuition will hit $17,000 by 2020, he said, a price tag that will squeeze out middle class students.

Mish Comment: The reality is tuition is already outrageous and the key reason is absurd salaries to administrators and staff.

"It is not fair," he told a legislative work panel reviewing a variety of proposals to overhaul the state's higher education system. "We have to do something."

Mish Comment: The university of Oregon, like all universities churns out thousands of students a year, at an absurd cost to the students, many of whom graduate 10's of thousands of dollars in debt, with no realistic job opportunities and no way to pay off that debt.

Yes, this is grossly unfair. The reason it happens is the staff is grossly overpaid with absurd pension benefits on top of it all. The cure is not to float bonds, but to slash pension benefits and salaries of the teachers, adminsitrators, and staff.

Lariviere's controversial funding plan, which he says has never been tried anywhere in the country, will be introduced as a bill in the 2011 Legislature, said Sen. Mark Hass, D-Beaverton, co-chairman of the work group, which met at Portland Community College.

"This is one of the most significant proposals in higher education we have had in decades," Hass said.

Mish Comment: Controversial is not the right word, "idiotic" is the right word. The state absolutely cannot afford to go $800 million into debt on a chance the idea will work out.

Lariviere said he also wants the university, now governed by the State Board of Higher Education, to have its own 15-member governing board appointed by the governor.

In exchange for more independence, the university would agree to meet performance goals set by the Legislature on freshman retention, college completion and other measures.

Mish Comment: Excuse me for asking the obvious question, but why should the state have to exchange anything for performance goals? Why shouldn't the state cold turkey flat out mandate goals on retention and completion?

The plan would be a bargain for the state, the president argued, because its annual obligation to the university would remain $63 million a year and not increase for 30 years.

"We are not asking for more money, " Lariviere said.

Mish Comment: The missing word in the sentence is "yet". The assumed rate of return on investments and donations guarantees the university would be back asking for more money.

The university in turn would match the $800 million with private donations and put the entire $1.6 billion into its endowment, which would be invested by the university's foundation.

The university would then draw 4 percent to 4.5 percent of the fund each year for its operations. The foundation projects it could on average reap a 9 percent return on the endowment, which would grow to $6.9 billion in 30 years.

Mish Comment: I have a better idea. Given the university feels it can raise $800 million and earn 9% on it, the university should do just that, and taxpayers should do nothing.

The reality is Lariviere is promising $800 million in donations when he has no idea how much will come in. Moreover, rate of return assumptions of 9% a year with 10-Year treasuries yielding 2.5% is downright absurd.

I would not be surprised to negative rates of return over the next 10 years. The long-term average is about 6%.

However, the economy is smack in the midst of Schumpeterian Depression with no end in sight. Please see Creative Destruction for more about the theory behind Schumpeterian Depressions.

Bob Davies, president of Eastern Oregon University, said Lariviere's plan is creative and has merit, but questions remain about how it would affect the rest of the university system.

He agreed with Lariviere on one point. "We have got to do something different."

Mish Comment: Bob Davies wants his hand in the taxpayer's pocket as well. However, if Lariviere and Davies really want to do something different, why don't they slash pension benefits and salaries of overpaid faculty and staff?

No such proposals are on the table for the simple reason Lariviere is looking out for the best interests of administrators and teachers, not the best interest of the kids.

Choice Comments From The Oregonian

Oregon000 writes: According to the Oregonian, their new AD is earning a pretty penny. We would be surprised to learn how much money all the university fat cats are earning. "Mullens, introduced July 15 to replace former football coach-turned-athletic director Mike Bellotti, will earn a base salary of $450,000 and deferred compensation of $50,000. Athletic and academic incentives could add up to $150,000 annually." Let's look at the rate at which the salaries for administrators, coaches, professors has increased vs. inflation. The poor students are funding a lavish lifestyle for many of them.

Jacjsonstew asks: What cuts has OU made so far?

Gnuut writes: "The foundation projects it could on average reap a 9 percent return on the endowment, which would grow to $6.9 billion in 30 years. " The same estimates that put PERS in the ditch. Won't these clowns ever learn that their lies don't sell any more?

JojoValley writes: We, the tax payers, will not gladly pay you $1.9 billion tomorrow for $800 million today. Since when is floating a loan the way to pay annual expenses? It is however a great way to delay cutting back on the growth of salary expense per full time equivalent at U of O. Private sector jobs are disappearing and deflating as the supply of workers rises. But government jobs in any sector, education, police, prisons, etc. just keep getting more expensive. Will the last taxpayer left please turn out the lights?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Saturday Listening and Reading: Bill Fleckenstein, Art Cashin, Ben Davies, Hugh Hendry

Posted: 02 Oct 2010 10:55 AM PDT

Eric King has had a great list of guest interviews recently. Please see King World News Broadcast for a list.

Ben Davies discussed currency frictions and how that might eventually lead to war. Also see Hinde Capital's Ben Davies: Currency Interventions Mark End Of Dollar Era And First Step Toward War on Business Insider.

Bill Fleckenstein talked about how reckless and arrogant policies by Greenspan and Bernanke are contributing to strength in gold and silver.

Art Cashin discussed the comments from the Walmart CEO regarding extremely significant and stronger sales at the beginning of the month. Meaning customers were coming into the store at 11 pm and shopping to get necessities like baby formula and other staples but shopping long enough for the government assistance cards to become activated at midnight and beyond.

Hugh Hendry looks for a big deflation event to happen ahead of currency debauchery. Hendry is also very bearish on China and thinks that China is due for a fall in terms of GDP.

Zero Hedge discusses the Eric King interview with Hugh Hendry in Interview With King World News: "If Inflation Is A Monetary Phenomenon, Hyperinflation Is A Political Phenomenon"

In general, I side with Hendry. All King interviews are lengthy, discussing topics in detail. Please give one or more of them a play. The interview with Hendry is particularly interesting.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

250,000 Stimulus Jobs Set to Vanish; Firing Bureaucrats in NY Easier Said than Done; Seeking Jobs "Nobody Else Wants to Do"

Posted: 02 Oct 2010 12:44 AM PDT

Stimulus is running out and states will cut employees whether they want to or not. Some job seekers on Craigslist are willing to do anything. In New York, "fine print" has delayed many needed cutbacks.

When Stimulus Runs Out

CNN Money discusses the Latest unemployed: Stimulus-subsidized workers

Tens of thousands of low-income workers lost their jobs Thursday as a stimulus-subsidized employment program came to an end.

About a quarter of a million people in 37 states were placed in short-term jobs thanks to a $5 billion boost to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. States used about $1 billion to provide subsidized employment, with the remaining funds going to cash grants, food programs, housing assistance and other aid.

With the program expiring, many of the adults have been told not to report to work anymore. And it won't be easy for them to find a new position at time when the unemployment rate continues to hover at 9.6%

"They are just joining the millions of other people looking for permanent work," said Elizabeth Lower-Basch, senior policy analyst at the Center for Law and Social Policy, an advocacy group known as CLASP.

1,200 NASA workers to be laid off

CNN Reports 1,200 NASA workers to be laid off

More than 1,200 NASA workers will be laid off Friday, despite Congress passing a $19 billion budget for the space agency two days earlier. Lori Garver, NASA's deputy administrator, said Thursday she didn't believe the bill would affect planned layoffs, "certainly not for tomorrow."

Thursday was the last day for laid-off employees to report to their workstations. Shuttle workers on their last day were to receive their final paperwork. Many of the departing workers have worked on the shuttle program since its beginning in the early 1980s.

Tough to Get Rid of Unwanted Bureaucrats

The Times Union reports State layoffs offering trial by fine print

Word of impending layoffs sent shock waves and more than a little anger throughout the state work force Friday after Gov. David Paterson told state agencies they could lay off up to 2,000 people by the end of the year in order to achieve savings targets.

But if and when people actually start getting pink slips, the process is likely to cause a lot of headaches and maybe a bit of head scratching too.

That's because the layoff process for public employees in New York is so complicated, convoluted and potentially case-specific that it will likely take a large cadre of lawyers, civil service experts and others to manage.

"The big print giveth and the little print taketh away," said Harvey Randall, a Capitol Region lawyer who serves as a consultant on public-sector layoff issues.

Randall co-authored a book on the various rules and procedures that govern layoffs.

It runs more than 600 pages, which should disavow anyone of the idea that layoffs are a simple matter. Generally, state and most public-sector layoffs are done by reverse order of seniority and that's true with the state.

But it's important to realize that the seniority is generally limited to job titles within what is known as a "layoff unit." Some of the units can run across state agency lines. For example, a clerk in the Department of Environmental Conservation could conceivably "bump" or displace a less-senior person in, say the Department of Health, although that depends on the labor contract and precise job title involved.

Also, job titles from which people are being laid off generally have to be abolished, but that doesn't stop cross-agency bumping.

For example, if a printer's job is being eliminated in one agency, that printer might be able to go across town and bump a less-senior printer somewhere else.

It gets even more complicated in agencies involved in direct care such as the Department of Corrections or Office for People With Developmental Disabilities, where layoffs can proceed based on facilities. Even then, people targeted for layoff would generally have the option to bump someone in another facility such as a prison or home for the disabled, but it could be halfway across the state.

The rules are preposterous, but arcane rules or not budget cuts, including layoffs are going to happen.

Willing to Do Anything, Including Scooping Poop

Some people are willing to do nearly anything. This ad in Craigslist (I corrected numerous typos) is proof enough. Please consider Poop Pick up (Cape Cod)

Date: 2010-09-30, 9:53AM EDT

If you are tired of picking up after your dog, then this add is for you! I am willing to come to your house and clean your yard of all the dog crap, and haul it away! I can also walk the dog/dogs at a time that is best for you. I can also clean/hall trash yard debris etc. If you have a basement that needs cleaning/organization, give me a call! I am basically looking for those jobs that nobody else wants to do. No job is too big or small!

Expect to see more ads like that as benefits expire and the last remnants of various stimulus packages fade into distant memory.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

SEOptimise

Get 15% Off Conversion Conference London

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 07:13 AM PDT

Rising Media, the guys behind the SMX conferences, have launched a new event called Conversion Conference.

This is running across two days (November 1-2) at Park Plaza, Victoria and based on a great line-up of conversion optimisation speakers, it looks like it’s going to be a very interesting event!

To get a 15% discount off ticket prices, all you need to do is sign-up using the promo code: SEOPTIMISE010 – see you there!

Solar Power and a Clean Energy Economy

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, October 2, 2010

Your Weekly Address: Solar Power and a Clean Energy Economy

The President points to a revolutionary new solar plant that will employ 1,000 people and power 140,000 homes. The plant is possible because of the President’s investments in the clean energy economy, which Congressional Republicans want to eliminate. Watch the video.

Seth's Blog : The buddy system

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The buddy system

Here's the best way to improve your business plan or your resume:

Have someone else write it.

Find a friend of a friend, a document-buddy, someone who needs the same thing done for them, but not someone who is a close friend. And then interview each other and write the other person's plan.

Don't show them the existing plan or document, and don't read it to them. Have a conversation. Tell your story. Answer questions. And then see what they come up with.

Writing about yourself is infinitely harder than writing about someone else--and you're going to discover that the story you thought you were telling probably isn't the story that's coming across.

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duminică, 3 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Your ecosystem

Your ecosystem

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sâmbătă, 2 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

Solar Power and a Clean Energy Economy

Seth's Blog : The buddy system

The buddy system

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duminică, 3 octombrie 2010

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sâmbătă, 2 octombrie 2010

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