marți, 5 octombrie 2010

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Reputation Management SEO: 6 Advanced Tactics

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:39 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Last week I visited Milan, Italy thanks to the generosity of the US State Department and Marco Montemagno, organizer of Social Media Week. I was, first off, impressed that the State Dept. had a formal program to encourage digital entrepreneurship and the promotion of Internet use as part of their mission to spread democracy. I was even more impressed that Marco's Social Media Week garnered more than 25,000 attendees (granted, most events were free, but still exciting numbers).

During my participation in the event and in private meetings with several folks from local businesses and government offices, I was surprised at how many times the issue of SEO for reputation management arose. Perhaps Italians on the web are given to sparking controversy or perhaps it's merely coincidence, but either way, I promised to write a post describing some of the most powerful methods we've observed for driving down negative or unwanted results in Google and controlling one's own listings.

The following are my (more advanced) suggestions to anyone seeking to "own" their SERPs in the engines:

#1: Cultivate the Right Social Profiles in the Right Ways

A big mistake many in the reputation management field make is to register social profiles at dozens or hundreds of sites and point links to as many as possible, hoping that some will take over those top rankings. This actually dilutes the effectiveness of the strategy, as those links could be consolidated across a few powerful profiles instead, often with much greater effect. The general sites I recommend include (in order of profile effectiveness):

  1. Twitter
  2. LinkedIn
  3. YouTube
  4. Flickr
  5. Facebook

That said, another big mistake is presuming that just registering a profile is enough to take over the rankings. My experience has been that participating heavily in the sites (for example, on Flickr, uploading lots of photos and sets, making lots of friends, getting others to comment on your photos, etc) can be more valuable to help those profiles rank than just earning external links. This is why if you're passionate and active on a community like DeviantArt, Quora, Armor Games or another niche social site, those can outrank even the big guns of the social world. Regular, authentic partcipation is key.

Some additional rules to remember with social profiles include:

  • Name your profiles correctly. If possible, don't use pseudonyms, but rather your full first and last name (or brand name) either as a single word or with hyphens
  • Fill out the profiles completely - photos, bio, videos, links, topics, tags - whatever the platfrom offers, take advantage of it fully.
  • Leverage your address book or a list of your social media active contacts - friend/follow/connect with them on each of the platforms.
  • Make new connections on each platform, too. Use OSE's top pages tab to find the most linked-to URLs on the social platforms and see if you can comment, connect or otherwise get your profile linked-to from those pages.
  • Don't forget about relevance - if the page looks unnatural or keyword-stuffed, you risk having the profile banned by the admins of the site and jeopardize your ability to authentically participate and make connections with other people, brands and content.

Like everything else in life - nothing worth having comes easy. Invest in your social profiles and they'll reward you with controllable front-page real estate in the rankings.

#2: Author a Universal Bio with Embedded Links

If you or your company appear in press, media, at events or even receive mentions and references on the web, there's almost always a stock "bio" or "profile" that's requested by the publisher. This stock paragraph is a remarkable opportunity to link to your various pages on the web in relevant, appropriate ways. For example, let's say I'm crafting a stock profile for SEOmoz to be used whenever we're a sponsor, participant or reference-source in an event/media piece). I'd go with something like:

SEOmoz is a Seattle based software startup focused on making SEO (Search Engine Optimization) easy and accessible to all marketers. The company's popular SEO blog serves more than 80K daily subscribers, while their SEOmoz twitter and Facebook accounts interact with thousands more in the social world. For more about SEOmoz, see funding + investors via Crunchbase and job opportunities on LinkedIn.

Notice the multiple links with reasonably good anchor text pointing back to pages we control on the web? This works reasonably well for companies, but is even more effective for individuals, as these "bios" tend to follow you everywhere in your professional/public life. Be sure to follow up when you send these to press outlets, places you're advertising or events you participate in/sponsor to make sure the links are included. 50% of the time or more, you'll need to send a reminder email to make sure they're properly attributing.

#3: Speak, Invest, Donate & Hire

These four tactics are the most effective ways I've seen to get your brand/bio/links propogated across the web. Speaking at events is typically free (other than travel), promotes yourself and your brand, and almost always carries a high quality bio with links. Investing in companies or donating to non-profits or even individuals is similarly effective and can save the travel/pitching/Powerpoint. Even small amounts carry recognition from powerful pages, press releases and media articles to help boost your links.

Hiring is unique, because the ads are often temporary. However, many sources for job ads will maintain a permanent profile so long as you regularly or intermittenltly have jobs available. If you're used to posting only on your own site or on Craigslist (where ads do dissappear fast), consider leveraging other services and including your company/personal bio when you do. Even if it's only a contractor position or a role you are considering, these can have a dramatically positive impact (and you might find someone great to add to the team!).

#4: Avoid Wikipedia Pages & Other Free-for-All Sites

Wikipedia pages are powerful, right? Thus it must follow that it's wise to create profiles/pages about our companies or ourselves on the site to use for reputation management, too? Wrong.

The first rule of reputation management is - own the listings with pages you control completely. If other people can leave comments, edit your material, insert additional references or otherwisely editorially negate your work, don't bother. I've actually had to fight with Wikipedia's bureaucracy on two separate occassions to have my page there taken down. I have little faith in the accuracy, quality or intentions of their editorial board and with such a powerful profile (my Wikipedia page, the day after it was first created, with no additional external links I could find, ranked #3 for my name in Google and #4 in Bing), it's not worth taking chances.

This applies to many others (actually, TechCrunch's "Crunchbase," which I linked to above in the SEOmoz profile example, is another potentially risky candidate). Before you invest time, effort or external links, be sure of the general practices of the site around control of content and profiles. Generally, places like LinkedIn, Flickr, Twitter, etc. let you control that real estate unless you're engaging in serious mischief (and even then, they won't allow negative material to be posted about you on those URLs, they'll just take them down).

#5: Start an Alternative Blog

Blogs naturally attract a lot of links and external references, which is why so many reputation management SEOs recommend registering firstlastname.com or brandnameblog.com and using it as a professional or personal blog. What I don't often see, but have observed working brilliantly, is alternative blogs on separate topics using a similar system.

For example, imagine I want to control my name "Rand Fishkin." I'd not only run a blog at randfishkin.com, but I'd also strongly consider starting a cooking blog or a sports blog or a travel blog at randfishkincooks.com or the like. Yes, it will take work to set it up, author some real content and build up a web profile for the new domain, but if I can tie it to something I already do and love sharing, the references will come fast and furious.

Be sure, when doing this, to leverage your existing network for blogroll links and share via Twitter/Facebook/etc. You'll be surprised how friends, family and business contacts will come out the woodwork to link to your new property.

#6: Leverage Lower Quality Links for Social Profiles, Higher Quality for Self-Managed Domains

I'd never suggest buying crappy links, but if you must or if you have other links you control that are of questionable quality or you think search engines might consider low value or even manipulative, don't point these to your newly registered domains or the sites you own. Instead, point them at the powerful, high authority social profile pages you've created and let the engines decide what/whether to count them.

This works particularly well for nofollow links from comments, wikis and other social participation forms on the web. I'm not sure whether the nofollows directly get counted or if the pages get scraped and re-published in some followed format, but time after time I've seen examples of nofollows seemingly doing the heavy lifting to get social profile pages ranking.

If you own some old, neglected sites that are questionable in quality and rankings from the engines' point of view, you could try testing these by pointing them to other social profile pages (and observing/testing the impact on those URLs' rankings) before pointing them at your own profiles. Better to be safe than sorry, and there have been plenty of cases where aggressive SEOs have gone too far with linking to social profiles and had either the search engines penalize the pages or even the site administrators pull down the profile, wasting hours or days of work.


Have some effective reputation management tactics of your own to share? Please do - I'm sure those working in this sector will appreciate them.

p.s. Obviously, with Google's shift to showing many more pages from a single domain in the SERPs for a brand name query, this practice has become easier for some. In a future post, I'll try to discuss how to get that brand "entity" association with your site but in the meantime, I recommend two posts from Bill Slawski on the issue - Influence of Brands & Entities and - How a Search Engine Might Assume a Query Implies a Site Search.


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Daily Snapshot: White House Summit on Community Colleges

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
 

Photo of the Day

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama meets with interim Chief of Staff Pete Rouse in the Oval Office, Oct. 4, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

 Today's Schedule

Today, the President will join Dr. Jill Biden at the first-ever White House Summit on Community Colleges.  This event will highlight the critical role that community colleges play in developing America’s workforce and reaching our educational goals. The President will join Dr. Biden at the opening plenary session.  The opening session and clossing session will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

9:45 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:15 AM: The President receives the Economic Daily Briefing

10:30 AM: The Vice President delivers remarks at a rally for Gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton

10:45 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

12:15 PM: The President delivers remarks at the Community College Summit with Dr. Biden WhiteHouse.gov/live

12:15 PM: The Vice President attends an event for Mark Dayton

1:00 PM: Briefing by Press Secretary Robert Gibbs WhiteHouse.gov/live

3:00 PM: White House Summit on Community Colleges Closing Session WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:30 PM: The President and the First Lady host the Diplomatic Corps Reception WhiteHouse.gov/live

7:50 PM: The President delivers remarks to the 2010 Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog

Building Skills for America’s Future
President Obama announces the launch of a new initiative Skills for America’s Future - an effort to improve industry partnerships with community colleges to ensure that America’s community college students are gaining the skills and knowledge they need to be successful in the workforce.

Helping More Women-Owned Small Businesses Compete for Federal Contracts
SBA Administrator Karen Mills discusses the new Women’s Contracting Rule.

Creating a Fair Playing Field for American Businesses Overseas
Victoria Espinel, U.S. Intellectual Property Enforcement Coordinator, explains efforts to enforce American intellectual property rights as the President seeks to dramatically expand American exports.

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Seth's Blog : The business of software

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The business of software

Inspired by a talk I gave yesterday at the BOS conference. This is long, feel free to skip!

My first real job was leading a team that created five massive computer games for the Commodore 64. The games were so big they needed four floppy disks each, and the project was so complex (and the hardware systems so sketchy) that on more than one occasion, smoke started coming out of the drives.

Success was a product that didn't crash, start a fire or lead to a nervous breakdown.

Writing software used to be hard, sort of like erecting a building used to be hundreds of years ago. When you set out to build an audacious building, there were real doubts about whether you might succeed. It was considered a marvel if your building was a little taller and didn't fall down. Now, of course, the hard part of real estate development has nothing to do with whether or not your building is going to collapse.

The same thing is true of software. It's a given that a professionally run project will create something that runs. Good (not great) software is a matter of will, mostly.

The question used to be: Does it run? That was enough, because software that worked was scarce.

Now, the amount of high utility freeware and useful free websites is soaring. Clearly, just writing a piece of software no longer makes it a business.

So if it's not about avoiding fatal bugs, what's the business of software?

At its heart, you need to imagine (and then execute) a business that just happens to involve a piece of software, because it's become clear that software alone isn't the point. There isn't a supply issue--it's about demand. The business of software is now marketing (which includes design).

The internet has transformed the software industry in two vaguely related ways:

1. It makes it far more efficient to communicate with people who might buy your software and,
2. It enables software's most powerful function: communication between users

Let's take them one at a time:

COMMUNICATE TO USERS: As we've seen in just about every industry, marketing involves effectively communicating a story about benefits to (and among) the people who will appreciate them. For software entrepreneurs, this means identifying a group of people who need the utility of what you can offer them and who are willing to give you permission to educate them about why they should buy. Without either element, the software is dead.

Over time, this permission becomes the core asset of the company. Selling upgrades, for example, is a great revenue path for software companies because of the ease of alerting current users about the upgrade.

I think niche opportunities for software are largely unexploited. There are countless tribes of people who would eagerly try and ultimately benefit from software optimized for their needs. A simple example: Firehouse.com is a website for firefighters. They have tens of thousands of members and hundreds of contributing writers and bloggers. Is it possible to imagine software that would help a fireman during a typical day? If you could, here's a group ready to listen.

The amplification of tens of thousands of tribal niches online creates a significant opportunity for specialized software worth paying for.

So, the questions I'd ask:

  • Who can I reach?
  • Is the product so remarkable that they will talk about my product with their peers?
  • Can I earn and maintain permission to continue the conversation?
  • Once they learn about the utility offered, will they pay for it?


ENABLE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN USERS: This is the holy grail of software, and has been since multi-player games, email, ICQ and the web revolutionized the way we thought about computers.

It's hard to imagine, but twenty years ago, this is not what we thought about when we turned on a computer or went to the store to buy software. (Yes, the store--that's where you bought software). The purpose of software was to interact with a device, not another person. Old software had no network effect.

The network effect is the increased utility of a device that enables communication. One fax machine is useless, two are good, a thousand are a vital tool. One user of software is lonely, a million is a sea change in the way we communicate. Software enjoys a central role in the network effect--if you can improve productivity or satisfaction by connecting people, then people will selfishly help you do your marketing.

When building a software business that uses the network effect, I'd ask:

  • Does the connection this enables create demonstrable value?
  • Is there an easy and obvious way for someone who benefits to recruit someone else to join in?
  • Is it open enough to be easy to use but closed enough to avoid becoming a zero-cost commodity?


Worth taking a minute to think about that last question. eBay, for example, is a business because instead of developing an open protocol that would have enabled anyone to run an auction anywhere on any platform, Pierre Omidyar built a piece of software that was easy to use and open to changes in content--but required all the users to use his software. Compare that to the many pieces of software middleware that depend on Twitter content to work. Since the feed from Twitter is software independent, it's very difficult for a middleman to earn the privilege of charging much at all. The user can easily switch to a different middleman with little or no hassle.

What you're looking for in a connected world is a piece of software that sits in the middle of a sphere, enabling the user to make valuable connections, to build utility in a way that they couldn't without you. That's worth paying for and not worth switching out of.

LAST THING: Paying for it

In a competitive market where the marginal cost of an item is zero, the price will move to and eventually reach zero. If it doesn't cost you (or your competitors) anything to add one more user, then in a truly competitive market, there will be a race to add users, even if the next one doesn't add any revenue.

The goal, then, is to create a dynamic where the market isn't competitive. Back to the eBay example: copying the functionality of their software is now easy and cheap. You could probably build something way better, in fact. But switching is hugely expensive for the user, because all the buyers and all the sellers are there, not with you. It's not a competitive marketplace.

The other condition that's necessary, though, is that users have to believe that payment is an option. The web has trained the vast majority that interactions online should be free. That makes the act of selling software, particularly to people who haven't used it yet, really difficult.

There are two ways around this:
1. Free samples. Many software companies (37signals being an obvious one) have discovered the drug dealer model, in which the software is free for a month, connections are built, utility is created and then it begins to cost money.

2. Move to a platform where commerce is expected. They sell a lot of candy at bookstore cash registers, because wallets are already out and people are feeling in the mood for a treat to leaven their purchase of some intellectual tome. The app store for the iPad is like that. The expectation is that this software is going to cost money. It's far easier to sell a serious app for the iPad than it is on the web, because the platform is organized around commerce.

A long post, sure, but I wanted to help you realize that just because you can code something that doesn't mean it's a good idea. The issues of permission, of networks, of scarcity and of the desire to pay are inherent in the business part of the business of software. I think we're at the very beginning of the arc of software as business, and I can't wait to see what you come up with next.

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luni, 4 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Japanese Politicians fed up with Deflation, Challenge BOJ Independence

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 09:15 PM PDT

Things are simmering once again in Japan. The Yen is approaching all-time highs and Japanese politicians have had enough of deflation. Another round of quantitative easing is now on the front burner.

MarketWatch reports Bank of Japan may buy asset-backed paper
Japan's central bank may announce plans to buy asset-backed securities when it issues its policy decision later Tuesday, the Nikkei business daily reported. The newspaper had reported earlier in the week that the Bank of Japan may expand its low-interest loans to financial institutions. But in the report Tuesday, the Nikkei said "a growing number of board members argue that the bank should go further" and begin buying securities backed by loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. The report, which didn't cite sources, said such a move would be aimed at making more funds available to the private sector.
BOJ Independence Under Attack

Bloomberg reports BOJ Independence Challenged as Deflation Continues
Increasing risks to Japan's recovery prompted what may become the biggest threat yet to the Bank of Japan's independence as politicians seek to redress its failure to end the deflation entrenched in the economy since 1998.

Your Party, an opposition group, plans to submit a bill in the Diet session running through December that would give the government a greater role in BOJ policymaking. Ichiro Ozawa, a former challenger to Prime Minister Naoto Kan whose calls for currency intervention and enlarged fiscal stimulus have been adopted by Kan, made a similar proposal last month.

The debate comes after BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa refused to expand purchases of government bonds this year even as deflation persisted. The bank may today instead widen a 30 trillion yen ($358 billion) program providing loans to banks, according to 14 of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The effort has so far failed to stanch a contraction in lending.

Shirakawa's intransigence has incurred the ire of politicians pressing the bank to boost efforts to end deflation, which erodes corporate profits, makes debt harder to pay back, and enhances the yen's lure by lifting its purchasing power. The GDP deflator, a gauge of prices across the economy, has fallen 14 percent since 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"Japan is the only industrialized country which has had consumer price changes of minus or zero over the past decade," Keiichiro Asao, head of policy research at Your Party, said in an Oct. 1 interview in Tokyo. "If the central bank is a guardian of stable prices, it shouldn't allow price declines."

The BOJ, which has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent since December 2008, currently purchases 1.8 trillion a month of government bonds. At the current pace of buying, the bank's self-imposed ceiling for bond holdings will be reached in 2014, according to Barclays Capital estimates.

The Federal Reserve, by contrast, has eschewed any such ceiling and indicated last month it's prepared to add to its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, the Fed's balance sheet, at $2.3 trillion, is smaller than Japan's relative to the size of the economy, at about 16 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The BOJ holds about $1.5 trillion, or about 26 percent of Japan's GDP.
Bank Balance Sheets Compared

ZeroHedge Asks Is The BOJ Preparing An Imminent Announcement Of Its Own Latest (And Certainly Not Greatest) QE?
The BOJ's balance sheet, which has been relatively flat when compared to peer central banks, especially since FX interventions will likely be sterilized, is about to explode and the JPY will plunge once the carry traders reorient themselves to shorting the original carry currency of choice.

As a reminder, here is how Japan has demonstrated remarkable restraint (at least recently) as everyone else has been printing.



In other words, the BOJ will continue to use FX intervention as an acute weapon every time the USDJPY drops below 83, and gradually implement asset-backed purchases as the chronic intervention against endless deflation.

Because this time it will be different. And, because, as the G-7 people promised, and everyone believed them, there will be no competitive devalution. Ever.
Politicians Know This Time is Different!

It's hard not to laugh out loud at the sarcasm in the last paragraph above.

Not only did QE fail to do what the Bank of Japan wanted (raise prices), QE has also failed to stimulate bank lending as Bernanke wants. Moreover, Japan's currency intervention efforts have not accomplished anything, ever.

But yeah... this time is different, because .... politicians know better!

By the way, this exercise in stupidity by all the central banks in question, shows just how hard it is to destroy a currency, even when you try (except against gold of course).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Analysts Cut S&P 500 Profits Forecast; Earnings Estimates Still Overly Optimistic; Stocks Not Cheap

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 12:28 PM PDT

Bloomberg reports S&P 500 Profits Cut for First Time in Year by Analysts.
For the first time in more than a year analysts are cutting their forecasts for Standard & Poor's 500 Index earnings, jeopardizing gains from the biggest September rally since World War II.

Estimates for S&P 500 companies' combined 2011 profit fell as low as $95.17 last month from an August high of $96.16 and posted the first quarterly reduction since the three months ended June 2009, according to more than 8,500 analyst forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. The revision came as the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities rose 8.8 percent last month, the largest September advance since 1939.

Estimates show S&P 500 earnings may rise 15 percent in 2011, down from a forecast of 20 percent growth in March, Bloomberg data show. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2 percent to 1,146.24 last week amid lingering concern that Europe's government debt crisis may threaten the economic recovery.

Companies in the S&P 500 may report profits rose 23 percent on average during the third quarter, according to forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. That's about half the 49 percent growth during the second quarter and the 52 percent increase from January through March.

Michael Levine of OppenheimerFunds Inc. says the outlook for lower earnings is already reflected in stock prices after the S&P 500 fell as much as 16 percent between April 23 and July 2. He predicts equity prices will keep rising as investors grow more confident that the U.S. economy isn't headed for the second recession in three years.

"Equities are cheap," said Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds, which oversees about $165 billion. "The broader markets are assuming there's a slow but gradual recovery. As long as that's the message, the markets will be fine."

"Stocks go up and they raise their earnings estimates, the markets go down they start reducing estimates -- a lot of it has to do with the psychology," said Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates, which manages $235 billion in St. Petersburg, Florida. "Over the long run, investing is indeed all about the earnings, but over the short term it's all about psychology."
Earnings Estimates A Mirage

It's important to understand why earnings have gone up: Trillions of dollars of stimulus worldwide that is not sustainable. Bank earnings estimates have been inflated by massive extend-and-pretend games encouraged by the Fed with a blind eye from the FASB.

Moreover, the FASB has delayed mark-to-market accounting rules and has still not forced banks to bring SIVs and off-balance-sheet assets back on the books. Those assets are held at inflated values.

It is disgusting to hear those like Michael Levine of OppenheimerFunds Inc. says "equities are cheap". Equities only look cheap if you use absurd forward earnings estimates, and ignore future writeoffs and other "one-time" items that seem to have a way of recurring with remarkable regularity.

Stocks Not Cheap

Stocks are not cheap an besides, share prices are not always a direct function of earnings. I talked about that in Sure Thing?!
Earnings vs. Share Prices

Right now, sentiment is so bullish and earnings estimates so lofty there is room for hefty earnings expansion that falls short or estimates. Buying stocks that miss wildly optimistic earnings estimates is not likely to work out well.

Furthermore, even if earnings do come in on target, there is no historic guarantee that stock prices follow. For example, on March 31, 1973 the S& P was at 111.52 with trailing earnings of $6.80. Seven years later, on March 31, 1980 the S&P was at 102.09 with trailing earnings of $15.27.

Thus, over a span of seven years, earning rose 125% while stock prices fell 8.5%!

What happened? The PE ratio on the S&P fell from 16.40 to 6.68, that's what.

Moreover, those were real earnings then. Now, corporations hide garbage in SIVs with the blessing of the Fed and analysts cite pro-forma earnings that throw out "one-time" charges that occur with increasing regularity.

Thus, anyone who says stock prices will go up because earnings go up, does not understand history.
Fancy Numbers

"You need pretty fancy GDP numbers to get to $95 a share in earnings next year," said Robert Doll, vice chairman of New York-based BlackRock Inc., which oversees $3.2 trillion. "Our view is that they're still a little too high, and that nobody believes them."

Robert Doll is half-right. He's right in that "You need more that fancy earnings to get to $95 a share". He's half-right because the consensus believes. Bear in mind we could still see a bit of earnings expansion, but with the inventory replenishment and stimulus coming to an end, and with consumers heading back into a shell, it will not be sustainable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Factory Orders Drop More Than Expected, Treasuries Rally

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 10:42 AM PDT

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes the rally in treasuries continues in the wake of the third decline in four months in factory orders and expectations of renewed Quantitative Easing by the Fed.

Yield Curve July 2008 - Present



click on chart for sharper image

Two-year (not shown above) and five-year treasuries are at record lows.

Factory Orders Drop More Than Expected

The Wall Street Journal reports Factory Orders Decline
U.S. factory orders dropped more than expected in August, marking the third decline in the last four months.

U.S. manufactured goods orders decreased by 0.5% to $408.94 billion, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Commercial airplanes drove the decline; excluding transportation, all other factory orders rose.

The report had positive data. A barometer of business capital spending increased; non-defense capital goods orders excluding airplanes rose by 5.1%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected overall factory orders would decrease by 0.4% in August. July orders rose 0.5%, revised from a previously reported 0.1% increase.

Factory orders are either durable or non-durable. Durables are designed to last at least three years -- things such as cars. The Commerce report Monday said durables dropped by 1.5%, revised from a previously reported 1.3% decrease. Nondurables rose by 0.3%.

Capital goods orders fell 0.1%. Non-defense capital goods orders rose 0.1%.

Meanwhile, defense-related capital goods dropped by 1.8%. Excluding defense, all other factory orders decreased 0.5%.

Among industries, orders rose for electrical equipment, machinery, and computers. Demand fell for primary metals.

Transportation equipment fell 10.2% as orders for cars and commercial airplanes dropped. Orders for manufactured goods excluding transportation rose 0.9%. This was the first increase in the last five months.

Manufacturers' inventories were up by 0.1% in August, after increasing 0.9% in July.

Shipments declined 0.6%. Unfilled orders, a sign of future demand, were flat.
That is a very weak report with inventories rising and nearly everything important falling or flat.

Durable Goods Drop Should Not Have Surprised Anyone

The drop in durable goods may have surprised some but it is consistent with my July 7th post Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash

This should have been pretty easy to figure out. If people stop buying houses, and they have, then people will not be buying many appliances for the houses they did not buy.

Moreover, autos are big ticket items and with sentiment souring on job prospects, one might have anticipated the auto recovery (as weak as it was), would also stall.

Rear View Mirror Look

Please note that today's report is a look in the rear view mirror. Today's factory orders report reflects August data.

October ISM Recap - Looking Ahead

Let's recap a few charts from Manufacturing ISM Expands, Rate Slows, Internals Weak
September ISM Manufacturing at a Glance



New Orders June Thu September



Falloff in the rate of growth of new orders is persistent and dramatic.

Inventories June Thu September



The backlog of orders is now contracting, and judging from the persistent trend in orders, it is highly likely orders will contract next month. Meanwhile inventories continue to rise.

This situation cannot last. Production is headed for a plunge if orders and backlog start contracting in a meaningful way, as appears likely.

Manufacturing ISM has likely peaked.
More Downward Surprises Coming

Today's Factory Orders report (for August) along with the October ISM report (September data as shown above) is further evidence the glowing September ISM report (August data) was an outlier.

Expect to see more downward surprises as the vast majority of economists do not understand the implications of the recent ISM data, or the meaninglessness of the Fed's renewed quantitative easing plans.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Why Most Conference Presentations Suck

Posted: 03 Oct 2010 02:00 PM PDT

Posted by willcritchlow

Normally, I tend towards the uncontroversial when I write. I haven't been the author of many posts that have caused debate.

But I've had enough. I need to speak up.

Most conference presentations suck

There. I said it.

I remember being amazed (and, back then, pretty heartened) when I went to my first SEO conference and realised I already knew most of what was being said. Amazement turned to disappointment at my second conference, which was billed as "Advanced" and where the same old basics were trotted out by too many of the speakers.

Since then, I've been to hundreds of presentations. I've learnt a lot, but from a surprisingly small proportion of them. (Thank you to those speakers who consistently turn out the excellent stuff!).

I'm no exception

This is as much a criticism of myself as anyone else. Looking back, there are some presentations I've given that make me cringe now (especially early ones). Early on in my speaking career, it wasn't necessarily that I phoned them in. I was suitably scared / motivated to do a good job - I think I just didn't know how. More recently, I think it's probably happened when I agreed to talk on a subject I didn't really know enough about. I'm definitely trying to learn that lesson.

So before I go any further, if you've had to sit through one of my presentations and learnt nothing, I'm sorry.

If it happens in future, email me and tell me (my contact details are easy to find and always on my last slide).

I'm a strong believer in the idea that you should praise in public and criticise in private so I'm not asking you to tear presentations apart on Twitter. I'd love it if we saw more strong praise of great presentations, and more honest private feedback to speakers and organisers when they haven't delivered the goods.

Basic has its place

Before I go any further, I wanted to point out that I am often called upon to give "SEO 101" type presentations and these wouldn't teach any of you anything. I hope this doesn't mean that they are bad presentations. It's all about knowing the level of the audience I guess. This rant is squarely aimed at "advanced" presentations of one form or another.

Delivery is important, but it's not a substitute for content

If you start googling "how to give a great presentation", you'll find masses of advice on slide design, how to speak at the right speed, the kind of opening line to use, what to wear etc. All of this stuff can help, but I would urge implore you to work harder on the other axis. Make the content kick-ass and I'll listen to you even if you mumble at your feet in a monotone looking like a scarecrow. (Yes, I know I talk too quickly when I present. One day I'll fix that).

Content is more important than delivery

I do like listening to great speakers and entertaining presentation does improve things, but there are better places than SEO conferences to go for stand-up comedy, so generally, I'm there to learn things. You can get away with slightly weaker content if your delivery is awesome but please remember this highly scientific chart:

Why bother?

And you know what? I don't even care if it's a sales pitch if you are teaching me stuff. It sets the bar higher and I'm more likely to criticise you if you pitch your own stuff without teaching me anything, but if you do teach me stuff, you can bet I'm going to check out whatever you're hawking.

By content, I mean new stuff

In the past, just to avoid embarrassing myself, I have:

  • Learnt new things (this was about how to do first touch tracking in Google Analytics):

  • Carried out research (this slide shows a correlation I established between search volume for the 2006 world cup and the 2010 world cup before this year's competition started - it was part of a methodology for forecasting search volumes that haven't happened yet):

  • And published data (this is actually one of Tom's slides):

Don't worry about being too advanced

That's what Google is for. Give me the ideas and the data that I couldn't get anywhere else. If there's terminology I'm not familiar with or you skip over something too quickly, I can easily do my own research. But please don't spend half an hour telling a room full of experts what Google Insights is.

Why should you bother?

At the Seattle mozinar, I gave a presentation on "how to pitch SEO". One of my core themes was that the best way to win business is to avoid competitive pitches by giving yourself an unfair advantage. Being known for being smart is one of those advantages. If people get to know you through learning from your presentations, you will find yourself in a disproportionate number of uncompetitive pitches... Just sayin'.

Recipe for success: Speakers

At Distilled, I have been thrilled to see great first-time presentations from our guys - this isn't something that only comes with experience. For example, Sam's Advanced Keyword Research presentation at SMX London was more highly rated than those of many more experienced speakers including mine. In advance of the show, Sam asked Tom and I to run through our secret recipe. It's actually pretty simple - just follow these steps:

  • Only agree to speak if you actually know the subject and have something new to say
  • Ask yourself what you can give away in your talk that will be new for the majority of the audience
  • What action can people take as a result of your talk?
  • Be prepared to do work / research to discover or demonstrate your new stuff
  • Unless you are an incredibly gifted public speaker, practice before the event. There's a huge difference between preparing the slides and giving a great talk. Although I truly believe that content > delivery, it's worth working on the delivery at least a bit! Check out Lisa Barone's post last week about How To Rock Your Presentation for more great presentation delivery recommendations.

If you need a little bit more incentive to be awesome, I've found that having a head to head competition and then a vote at the end of your session (thanks Rand!) is a good way to make you up your game.

Recipe for success: Organisers

This rant is mainly aimed at speakers, who I think are the primary culprits, but for organisers, while I realise that larger conferences especially don't want to micro-manage every session the way Rand and I have been for the Pro training seminars, can I beg for one small thing?

  • Don't invite speakers back if they didn't add value last time

Everyone runs those follow-up surveys and knows which speakers were loved by the audiences and who phoned it in. Please stop inviting people back if they don't want to teach things to the attendees. [Rand wrote a whole post a while back with his thoughts on this from an organiser's perspective].

Rand and I actually tend to harangue our speakers with instructions a little bit like those above asking them to bring their 'A' games. Beyond a certain point, it hopefully gathers momentum because no-one wants to be the guy giving the sales pitch when everyone else's presentation is rocking. At the beginning of September (almost two months before the show), I had a call with every speaker for the London Pro seminar to help shape what they were going to talk about and make sure that they are bringing their secrets. It's not too late to get in on the action and see the result of all that hard work:

There are still tickets left for the London Pro SEO seminar

It's lucky that we have a bigger venue this year. We passed last year's total (sold out) sales a few weeks ago and unfortunately all the VIP breakfast tickets are gone, but there are still tickets left at the time of writing. Like last year, we anticipate that there will be a rush of bookings as the date approaches so it is likely that we will sell out. If you are wanting to come and see me put my money where my mouth is (yes, I'm feeling the pressure a little bit after writing this) don't leave it too late to book:


The Details:
Where: The Congress Centre in London's West End
When: October 25th and 26th
Price: £699 +VAT
Book: now!

If you are an SEOmoz PRO member, you can get access to special pricing by using the code in the discount store - making it a steal at £499 +VAT / person.

Book now

You can read a sneak preview of the event that I wrote a few weeks ago to get an idea of the kinds of things that you will see there.


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