Central Perk

luni, 11 octombrie 2010

Daily Snapshot: Investing in America's Infrastructure

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, October 11, 2010

Photo of the Day

White House Pastry Chef Bill Yosses, center, leads students from River Terrace Elementary School in Washington, D.C., on a tour of the South Grounds of the White House, Oct. 7, 2010. The group toured the White House Kitchen Garden as a part of a program available to local elementary, middle, and high school students. (Official White House Photo by Samantha Appleton)

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

9:30 AM: The Vice President attends an event for Representative Chris Carney

9:40 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:15 AM: The President holds a meeting on infrastructure investment

10:50 AM: The President delivers a statement to the press

11:10 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

1:30 PM: The President meets with the students from Waiting for Superman

1:30 PM: The Vice President attends an event for Representative Kathy Dahlkemper and Representative Mark Critz

1:55 PM: The President departs the White House en route Andrews Air Force Base

2:10 PM: The President departs Andrews Air Force Base en route Miami, Florida

4:30 PM: The President arrives in Miami, Florida

5:45 PM: The President delivers remarks at a DCCC reception

6:00 PM: The President delivers remarks at a DCCC dinner

7:00 PM: The President departs Miami, Florida en route Andrews Air Force Base

9:10 PM: The President arrives at Andrews Air Force Base

9:25 PM: The President arrives at the White House

Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

SEOptimise

Stop Chasing Traffic – Practice Human Powered SEO

Posted: 08 Oct 2010 08:46 AM PDT

Image: Catching up by M.Danys.

While working on an extended review of the new social news community for SEO, SERPd I had a realization. Thus the review will have to wait till next week. First I have something more important to say. Listen up SEO people: Stop chasing traffic!

On the Web today traffic is a side effect.

Traffic can not be your goal. Also once you have the traffic it’s just a milestone on your way to conversions and ROI. SEO is complex these days. Depending who you are and who you work for SEO can be anything and everything that makes a business more profitable on the Web.

SEO may be web development, SEO may be PR, SEO may be usability. We all know that, I hope at least but SEO is also relationships with other people. You know, all those

influencers
connectors
bloggers
journalists
industry veterans

ultimately decide who you are and where you are. Of course you can ignore them and do your own thing but it’s far easier to be part of the larger social sphere you belong to in the first place instead of just being a lone ranger.

SERPd fills in the void Sphinn has left after they discontinued voting. It’s still nascent, sometimes buggy and the design isn’t as polished as one would expect these days. Also SERPd is just a tiny social news community. It may have around 300 members now. This reminds me of course of the early days of Sphinn when I started out there as an enthusiastic contributor.

Sure, Sphinn has proved be a great targeted traffic source at the end. A frontpage appearance on Sphinn was good enough for a thousand qualified visitors. It never was the main motivation though. The most important thing Sphinn has given me were the relationships with my peers. Living in Germany I haven’t met most of the individuals I converse with online about SEO. So I have to use the Web to be part of the international SEO community. These days I mostly do on Twitter but in the early days om my international blogging career I did mainly on Sphinn and partly on StumbeUpon.

The sites change but the people are still around.

They still know me, who I am and what I stand for. I managed to insult some people over the years. They don’t like my anymore. Some people have disappeared altogether. Either they moved on from SEO and social media to something else or they don’t socialize that much anymore online. There is a huge number of people who still there and more people show up all the time.

It’s how you interact with these people that determines your future SEO success.

It’s your peers who link to you, it’s the social media users, it’s the professional bloggers.

It seems that I am the third most active user on SERPd right now, the other two are the people behind the project. I didn’t even try very hard. I just went there and contributed to the budding community. A community is like a garden, you have to plant seeds first to reap later. This post is not about Sphinn or SERPd though. It’s just an example.

The main point is that you need people. You must go after the people not the traffic.

Be kind, supportive and part of the community and you will get the links, the traffic and the support in the future. Of course you have to deserve it. You won’t get it without a good blog, great content and some true expertise but being there and being part of the community is crucial.

When I started out on Sphinn nobody knew me, my blog was new as well and I only had been around some forums. Within a short time frame I managed to get a substantial amount of attention from the industry as well as from a wider audience. Throughout the years I had many other opportunities. I got clients, job offers, software providers ask me to review their tools etc. etc.

Never underestimate the power of relationships. Stop chasing traffic. Practice human powered SEO. You will be faster by bike than by car during the rush hour to extent the metaphor.

Seth's Blog : Do you need a permit?

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Do you need a permit?

Where, precisely, do you go in order to get permission to make a dent in the universe?

The accepted state is to be a cog. The preferred career is to follow the well-worn path, to read the instructions, to do what we're told. It's safer that way. Less responsibility. More people to blame.

When someone comes along and says, "not me, I'm going down a different path," we flinch. We're not organized to encourage and celebrate the unproven striver. It's safer to tear them down (with their best interests at heart, of course). Better, we think, to let them down easy, to encourage them to take a safer path, to be realistic, to hear it from us rather than the marketplace.

Perhaps, years ago, this was good advice. Today, it's clearly not. In fact, it's disrespectful, ill-advised and short sighted. How dare we cheer when a bold changemaker stumbles? Our obligation today isn't to spare the feelings of our peers from future disappointment. It's to establish an expectation that of course they're going to do something that matters.

If you think there's a chance you can make a dent, GO.

Now.

Hurry.

You have my permission. Not that you needed it.

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duminică, 10 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

PBoC Researcher says China Should "Set Red Line for Yuan Appreciation at 3%"; IMF Participants Pledge to "Create Reports"
Cost of War Since 2001; Federal outlays and revenues, 1940-2015
Sunday Funnies 2010-10-10 Sacrifices Must Be Made
FDIC Authorizes $1 Billion Lawsuits Against Failed-Bank Executives; Token Search for Low-Profile Scapegoats

PBoC Researcher says China Should "Set Red Line for Yuan Appreciation at 3%"; IMF Participants Pledge to "Create Reports"

Posted: 10 Oct 2010 09:48 PM PDT

In spite of ongoing currency wars, there are no surprises to report from G-20 participants at the IMF's annual meeting. Indeed, I cannot recall ever being surprised by major agreements at any IMF or G-Whatever meeting.

Year in and year out the achievement is the same, a pledge to cooperate more. This year we see a slight twist: the G-20 agrees to have the IMF to create reports on the U.S., China, the U.K. and the Eurozone.

Translation: The talks failed.

Bloomberg reports Finance Chiefs Fail to Resolve Currency Spat as G-20 Splits

Leaders of the world economy failed to narrow differences over currencies as they turned to the International Monetary Fund to calm frictions that are already sparking protectionism.

Exchange rates dominated the IMF's annual meeting in Washington on concern that officials are relying on cheaper currencies to aid growth, risking retaliatory devaluations and trade barriers. China was accused of undervaluing the yuan, while low interest rates in the U.S. and other rich nations were blamed for flooding emerging markets with capital.

Finance ministers and central bankers pledged to improve cooperation, yet did little to show how they would alter their ways beyond agreeing to let the IMF to study the matter.

Days after Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega set the tone for the gathering by declaring a "currency war" was underway, officials held their traditional battle lines. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet were among those to signal irritation that China is restraining the yuan to aid exports even as its economy outpaces those of other G-20 members.

"Global rebalancing is not progressing as well as needed to avoid threats to the global economic recovery," Geithner said. "Our initial achievements are at risk of being undermined by the limited extent of progress toward more domestic demand- led growth in countries running external surpluses and by the extent of foreign-exchange intervention as countries with undervalued currencies lean against appreciation."

Some forms of protectionism may already be on the rise. Ukraine's Deputy Premier Serhiy Tigipko said in an interview in Washington that his country may follow South Korea, Poland, Brazil and other emerging markets in introducing capital controls to prevent short-term investments from fueling currency volatility. India may also intervene to "prevent the disruption of the macroeconomic situation," Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao told reporters.

Unable to find common ground themselves, governments agreed the IMF should serve as currency cop by preparing reports which show how the policies of one economy affect others. The studies will focus on the U.S., China, the U.K. and the euro area.

"The need to have this kind of spillover report has been discussed for months and now it's part of our toolbox," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

Preparing Reports Useless

Brazil set the tone for the meeting with complaints about currency wars, but Brazil can scream its wants but no one can force China (or any other country), to do anything.

Since the IMF cannot set or enforce policy decisions, it was known in advance the whole conference was a waste of time and money.

The main "achievement" is the G-20 countries all agreed to have the IMF prepare reports. Sheesh. What a waste of money. What good is yapping and preparing reports when no one will act on those reports?

Capital Controls, Constant Bickering are Signs of Increasing Stress

The fact that Ukraine will follow South Korea, Poland, and Brazil in setting capital controls (with Japan, the US, Europe, and China all at each other's throats) is a clear indication of global currency stress.

Something is sure to blow sky high, but what and when is still not clear.

China to Cap the Yuan's Rise at 3 Percent

All the pressure being applied to China is likely to be futile given that a Chinese Central bank researcher says China must cap yuan rise this year

China need not worry about whether U.S. lawmakers label the country as a currency manipulator and should instead halt the yuan's rise at an appropriate time, said Wang Yong, a professor at the central bank's training school in Zhengzhou, Henan province, according to the Securities Times.

"This is the red line for yuan appreciation," he said, referring to a 3 percent rise.

"Once the line is crossed, it means the yuan's exchange rate will be derailed from the normal track and the government should intervene in the market in a timely manner," Wang added.

Adding Fat to the Fire

The yuan has risen 2.3% this year, certainly not the 20-40% that Congress and Geithner wants. Thus, limits of 3% are likely to infuriate Congress.

Bear in mind that announcements of a possible 3% cap could be China's way of setting expectations deliberately low, with a planned reversal coming at an opportune time later.

However, moves of 20% or even 8% are highly unlikely to be in the cards.

For more on economic tensions and currency wars please see

Prepare for Currency/Trade Wars; How Might China Respond to US Tariffs?

Global Competitive Debasement; Currency Wars Begin; Message of Gold

Trichet's Exit Strategy Trapped by PIIGS; Currency Tensions Continue to Build; China Tells EU to Stuff It

It will be interesting to see how Congress responds to news of a possible 3% cap on Yuan appreciation. With an election coming up, followed by a lame-duck session, China may have correctly calculated Congress will not do anything, at least for at least 3-4 months.

Regardless, tensions beneath the surface continue to mount. All it may take to see some very unwise legislation is a few more bad job reports and unemployment rising.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Cost of War Since 2001; Federal outlays and revenues, 1940-2015

Posted: 10 Oct 2010 10:46 AM PDT

The National Priorities Project has some interesting charts and graphics on the US budget.

Federal outlays and revenues, 1940-2015

The following chart shows federal outlays and revenues from 1940 to the proposed levels in 2015. The difference between the two equals the federal deficit or surplus.

Aside from specific policy initiatives, spending grows over time in order to accomodate a larger economy and population. Though many federal programs were cut during the 1990s, the outlays continued to increase as more people retired and Social Security payments grew. Recent growth in spending is due in large part due to increases in military spending.

Federal outlays and revenues, 1930-2015 as a percentage of the GDP

The following chart shows federal outlays and revenues from 1930 to the proposed levels in 2015 as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP).

Viewing federal spending and revenues as a percentage of GDP indicates how large or small government is in relation to the economy.

Bring the Troops Home Now!

Those costs do not include the future medical costs of injured soldiers, the countless wrecked lives of US soldiers and the lives of millions of innocent civilians killed in the needless war in Iraq.

Bear in mind, I do not support the social agenda of the National Priorities Project. However, I would rather see any spending in the US than the needless destruction of lives and property around the globe.

The US cannot afford to be the world's policemen, and even if we could, I still would not support such needless destruction.

It's time to declare the war won and bring back all the troops.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies 2010-10-10 Sacrifices Must Be Made

Posted: 10 Oct 2010 10:41 AM PDT

Government Workers Prepare To Make Much Needed Sacrifices.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

FDIC Authorizes $1 Billion Lawsuits Against Failed-Bank Executives; Token Search for Low-Profile Scapegoats

Posted: 10 Oct 2010 07:53 AM PDT

The FDIC has only brought one case to date against executives of failed banks. Supposedly more charges are coming.

Bloomberg reports FDIC May Seek $1 Billion From Failed-Bank Executives

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has authorized lawsuits against more than 50 officers and directors of failed banks as the agency aims to recoup more than $1 billion in losses stemming from the credit crisis.

The lawsuits were authorized during closed sessions of the FDIC board and haven't been made public. The agency, which has shuttered 294 lenders since the start of 2008, has held off court action while conducting settlement talks with executives whose actions may have led to bank collapses, Richard Osterman, the FDIC's acting general counsel, said in an interview.

"We're ready to go," Osterman said. "We could walk into court tomorrow and file the lawsuits."

The FDIC, which reviews losses for every bank failure, has brought only one case against officers or directors tied to recent collapses -- a suit filed in July seeking $300 million in damages from four executives of IndyMac Bancorp Inc.

The FDIC "brings suits only where they are believed to be sound on the merits and likely to be cost-effective," according to an agency policy statement that dates from the savings-and- loan crisis of the 1980s. That requires considerations of whether an individual, if sued, has the means to pay or an insurance policy to cover all or part of the claim.

"It doesn't make sense to file a lawsuit if at the end of the day you have a low chance of recovery," Osterman said.

"It's in both our interest and theirs to try and settle this matter before it gets into the court and we get into expensive litigation," he said.

Political Stunt to Placate the Public

I see this as little more than a political stunt to placate the public. These cases are unlikely to go to trial, on purpose, and not for the reason the FDIC says.

The FDIC does not want to rattle the banking system, so they won't. Instead they will settle most if not all of these cases for peanuts.

To make it look legit, the FDIC might pursue a couple of scapegoat cases, IndyMac being one of them, but don't expect anything more.

Criminal Fraud

"In the IndyMac case, executives are accused of granting loans that were unlikely to be repaid while seeking to benefit from the bank's compensation structure."

Excuse me but why isn't this criminal fraud?
Why isn't the SEC involved?

I believe all the executives from Dick Fuld on down are guilty of fraud. Indeed, there is a huge list of those who should be prosecuted for fraud.

Running List of Needed Criminal Investigations

It's time to update my rolling list of who should be criminally indicted and why.

April 29, 2010: Barofsky Threatens Criminal Charges in AIG Coverup, Goldman Sachs Abacus Deal, TARP Insider Trading; New York Fed Implicated

April 16, 2010: Rant of the Day: No Ethics, No Fiduciary Responsibility, No Separation of Duty; Complete Ethics Overhaul Needed

March 2, 2010: Geithner's Illegal Money-Laundering Scheme Exposed; Harry Markopolos Says "Don't Trust Your Government"

January 31, 2010: 77 Fraud, Money Laundering, Insider Trading, and Tax Evasion Investigations Underway Regarding TARP

January 28, 2010: Secret Deals Involving No One; AIG Coverup Conspiracy Unravels

January 26, 2010: Questions Geithner Cannot Escape

January 07, 2010: Time To Indict Geithner For Securities Fraud

October 20, 2009: Bernanke Guilty of Coercion and Market Manipulation

July 17, 2009: Paulson Admits Coercion; Where are the Indictments?

June 26, 2009: Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America "Turd in the Punchbowl"

April 24, 2009: Let the Criminal Indictments Begin: Paulson, Bernanke, Lewis

We can safely add IndyMac and countless other bank executives to the list.

Token Search for Low-Profile Scapegoats Continues

To date, in spite of the myriad of possible targets, and even some threats from Barofsky and others, we have seen no real action. So why should we expect this to be any different?

At best, all we are likely to see is a token search for a couple of relatively low-profile scapegoats, and those will be settled out of court for peanuts, with bank executives laughing all the way.

Addendum:

In response to the post, Janet Tavakoli pinged me with a one line comment: "Angelo, Angelo, Angelo...Lloyd, Lloyd, Lloyd....Jamie, Jamie, Jamie"

Without a Doubt

In case you do not recognize the above by first name, here they are...

Angelo Mozilo - Former CEO Countrywide Financial
Lloyd Blankfein - CEO of Goldman Sachs
Jamie Dimon - CEO of JPMorgan Chase

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : When the long tail is underwater

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

When the long tail is underwater

There are millions of songs on iTunes that have sold zero copies. Millions of blog posts that get zero visitors each day.

The long tail is real... given the ability, people create more variety. Given the choice, people seek out what's just right for them to consume. But, and there's a big but, there's no guarantee that the ends of the long tail start producing revenue or traffic. And a million times zero is still zero.

Sometimes, the best strategy isn't to to head farther and farther out on the tail. No, you don't have to make average stuff for average people. But it also doesn't pay to brainwash yourself into believing that super-extreme is the same as profitable.

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luni, 11 octombrie 2010

Daily Snapshot: Investing in America's Infrastructure

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

Seth's Blog : Do you need a permit?

Do you need a permit?

More Recent Articles

duminică, 10 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : When the long tail is underwater

When the long tail is underwater

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

luni, 11 octombrie 2010

More Recent Articles

duminică, 10 octombrie 2010

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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