Central Perk

sâmbătă, 23 octombrie 2010

Daily Snapshot: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, October 23, 2010

Your Weekly Address: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again

Pointing to the foreclosure crisis and the economy, the President cites passage of Wall Street Reform over the ferocious lobbying of Wall Street banks as a pivotal acheivement -- and condemns Republicans in Congress for vowing to repeal it.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

Photo: A fruitful Kitchen Garden harvest: http://wh.gov/3Ub

First Lady Michelle Obama, with students from Bancroft and Tubman Elementary Schools, look participates in a White House Kitchen garden harvest on the South Lawn of the White House, October 21, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Samantha Appleton).

Quote: “As a nation we’re founded on the belief that all of us are equal and each of us deserves the freedom to pursue our own version of happiness; to make the most of our talents; to speak our minds; to not fit in; most of all, to be true to ourselves. That’s the freedom that enriches all of us. That’s what America is all about. And every day, it gets better.”

– President Obama in a video message for the nationwide campaign focused on young people who are being bullied because of their actual or perceived sexual orientation. Video + Resources: http://wh.gov/3nn

White House White Board #2: Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, takes a look at the President’s record on the economy in this short video: http://wh.gov/3X2

Your West Wing Week: "The White House Science Fair" http://wh.gov/3Qb (Missed the fair? Check out the festival: http://bit.ly/cDxJLa)

Women & the Economy: A backyard discussion with the President: http://wh.gov/3nd A White House releases a report: http://wh.gov/3Nt & 10 ways our economic policies benefit women: http://wh.gov/3ng

You Asked, We Answered: White House officials respond to some of your questions that the President didn’t have a chance to answer in his live town hall with young people: http://wh.gov/3UY

Notable Number: $240 billion in tax cuts. Get the facts on how Obama’s tax cuts are helping American families: http://wh.gov/3RJ

Facebooking about Facebook: Secretary Chu’s thoughts on social networks: http://on.fb.me/d1WRhs

End Black Lung:The Mine Safety and Health Administration takes on black lung disease. Video: http://bit.ly/cdIJSD

An Executive Order: President Obama signs an Executive Order to renew and enhance the White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for Hispanics: http://wh.gov/35Y En Español: http://wh.gov/3Iq

Twitter Commentary: FCC: We’re filling in the baseball void for those without Fox-Cablevision. Matt Cain pitching a beauty. SF up 3-0 http://fcc.gov/consumer (WaPo story: http://wapo.st/cqQcMO)

What You Missed: Full videos from this week’s live chats: Austan Goolsbee on the economy: http://wh.gov/35F, Howard Schmidt on Cybersecurity: http://wh.gov/3nm, Chuck Close on the arts and humanities: http://wh.gov/3Nl

Ask Axe: Join David Axelrod, Senior Advisor to the President, for a Tuesday Talk on October 26th at 1:00 p.m. EDT. http://wh.gov/3UQ

Stay Connected

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SEOptimise

30 Quick & Clean Conversion Optimization Techniques for Buttons, Forms, Copy, Shopping Carts etc.

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 08:17 AM PDT

Image: Cleaner by atomicjeep.

Half a year ago I compiled a huge list of CRO (conversion rate optimization) resources. I think it was a bit too much for most of you. This time I decided to make it easier for you.

This list encompasses 30 conversion optimization techniques that are simple and quickly implemented in most cases but can significantly improve your conversion rate. I focused on six of the most important factors in web design, SEO and CRO and offered both “quick and clean” improvement suggestions for

buttons
forms
copy
shopping carts
typography
metrics

While you can improve the first five you have to employ the right metrics in the first place to make sure you don’t overlook conversions.

Buttons

It’s not a surprising fact that buttons are key to converting your visitors to customers. The button often determines whether a user takes action at all. Thus you combine buttons with effective calls to action.

make them bigger, bolder and add some striking color.
Add a short and clear call to action reflecting the desired action
make the step smaller (instead of “buy now” just “start now” or “try for free”)
Display just one button/option to minimize choices and avoid confusion
Remove negative options like “delete”

Forms

In case you have read the influential book “Web Design for ROI” you know that forms are the most important element on a website, not the homepage. Forms are not means of excessive data collection but ways for your users or customers to interact with you. Act accordingly simplifying and streamlining forms.

don’t make people register or log in to buy or otherwise convert, make it optional
highlight the active form input
don’t use conventional captchas with garbled letters and numbers for spam protection
don’t ask for sensitive data like gender or birth date unless you really need it for the conversion
in case you offer options to select be it with buttons or drop-downs always add and else input for options not listed

Copy

Copy as in copy writing still gets associated with sales copy. On the Web copywriting does not mean to overwhelm the reader with mindless corporate hogwash or keyword stuffed SEO content. It needs to be useful and support the visitor at whatever task s/he seeks to accomplish.

quit using “marketese” with all the blown up adjectives like “revolutionary, leading, biggest”, be matter of fact and try staying neutral
don’t say “we”, say “you”, focus on the customer’s point of view not your own
keep it short and highlight the options available for quick navigation inside the copy itself
be consistent throughout your landing page, don’t use different modes of speech (formal/informal, matter of fact/funny)
use natural language with synonyms instead of keyword stuffing (repeating the same phrase over and over)

Shopping carts

Shopping cart abandonment reaches often catastrophic levels. Sometimes two thirds or more of potential customers abandon your cart during the checkout process. There are several common reasons for this situation you can easily fix.

display badges of industry associations, trusted third party entities (press, government, NGOs) and security certificates
show shipping costs up front, otherwise people wil star the check out process to find out
show available payments methods up front and display the respective logos (PayPal, Moneybookers, Amex, Visa etc.)
email people who have stopped in the middle of the check out process after adding their personal data, they may have experienced technical issues and not even remember the URL they were on
remove hidden fees/charges and “small print” conditions, nobody likes to get fooled

Typography

While web designers often tend to use typography to beautify websites in SEO and usability we focus on readability to convert visitors.

use web safe fonts not fancy ones, some of the new fuzzy “anti-aliased” fonts are barely readable, font replacement techniques often are buggy (flicker before loading)
make fonts large enough to read and small enough to read, the eye can’t see tiny letters but huge letters will be out of focus
add more overall white space on your page for the eyes to rest beside the text
display text in a one column layout without distracting sidebars or other items
make sure your line-height, letter-spacing plus margin and padding are appropriate and the text doesn’t conflict with other site elements like images and graphics

Metrics

Sometimes you can’t improve conversion because you don’t measure them correctly or at all. There are many ways to define a conversion in the first place so that you can actually notice when a site goal has been been reached. It doesn’t have to be a sale.

track “micro conversions” like comments, returning visitors, high engagement visits (10 pageviews +), Twitter retweets or Facebook likes
divide your check out process into several small conversions, for instance , “adding email address”, “choosing payment method”, “accepting TOS” would be three conversions. This way you also see easily where in the check out process people refuse to go on.
“make love” to your direct traffic aka type in, returning visitors and subscribers, don’t just focus on first time visitors from search, social media and other referrers
don’t solely rely on Google Analytics which can’t measure several factors like canceled items after a sale
track the questions people ask to reach your site and answer them on your site if you haven’t already

Most of the improvement suggestions combine usability and CRO advice found elsewhere and my own attempts of advanced onsite optimization. So I may err in some cases. Feel free to question my techniques where your experiences differ from mine. Also add more simple ways to optimize for conversions if you like.

To test your new buttons, forms, copy etc. you need to use A/B split testing tools.

© SEOptimise – Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. 30 Quick & Clean Conversion Optimization Techniques for Buttons, Forms, Copy, Shopping Carts etc.

It Gets Better

Good morning,

As a mother, I can only imagine how devastating it would be to lose a child. So I was shocked and saddened when I heard that several young people had taken their own lives recently after being bullied for being gay -- or because people thought they were gay.

No one should ever feel so hopeless or tormented that they take their own life. Bullying of any kind, for any reason, is unacceptable. As adults, it's our responsibility to create a safe environment for our children. That includes setting an example of respect for one another -- no matter our differences.

That's why I’m writing to you today. In the wake of these terrible tragedies, thousands of Americans have come together to share messages of encouragement and hope with LGBT youth across our country who might be having a hard time in school or in their communities. And I wanted to share with you the video that Barack recorded to join his voice with all those who have told their own personal stories:

Middle school and high school can be tough for any kid. But it can be especially wrenching if you’re taunted or harassed by your peers, if you are made to feel worthless or alone because you don’t look or act like everybody else. And if you’re in that situation, it can be hard to imagine that things will ever change. But they will.

If you've been bullied, you need to know that this is not your fault. There are adults -- whether in your family, your school or your community -- who can help. Most importantly, you need to know how special and valuable your life is not just to your family and friends but to the entire country. You truly have a bright future ahead of you.

If you’re a parent worried about your child being bullied, or a young person who’s being bullied by their peers and aren't sure where to turn, you can learn more here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/ItGetsBetter

Please take care of yourselves and of one another.

Sincerely,

Michelle Obama
First Lady of the United States

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Seth's Blog : Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

Catherine Casey shared this picture (click to enlarge) of a medicine sold in Nigeria, where counterfeit drugs are a huge issue. Each packet comes with a scratch-off number. Use your cell phone and SMS the number to the company, and the company will text back whether the packet is legit. I'm sure clever counterfeiters will try to game the system, but it's not that hard to make it work.

It's easy to imagine ways that this could be used to increase after-sale connection (offers, insight, instructions, coupons) for all sorts of items, particularly in parts of the world where SMS is cheap and ubiquitous.

• Email to a friend •

•

vineri, 22 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Cash Cow: "Who has the Cash?" Followup
California Pension Promises Exceed 550% of State Tax Revenue by 2012; A Look at Solutions
Cash Cow: Who has the Cash, Who has the Debt, by Sector and Company

Cash Cow: "Who has the Cash?" Followup

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 12:16 PM PDT

In response to Cash Cow: Who has the Cash, Who has the Debt, by Sector and Company I received the following email from Erico who says the cash situation is even worse than I presented it.

Erico Writes ...

Mish – I believe you overstated the amount of cash in your analysis. A lot of that cash for the banks is collateralized. Plus GS is certainly NOT a cash cow. I would invite you analyzing their cash flow statements over the last 10 years, so you can really see how much of a ponzi finance Wall Street has become. In the latest 10Q available, they "only" generated $2bn from operations.

Otherwise, keep up the great work!

Best
Erico

In case you missed that top link, please give it a look. It contains an nice interactive graphic about cash levels, using Tableau software.

Corporate "Cash" - Cheering the Asset and Ignoring the Liability

Erico is correct but actually I was aware of it.

Here is an analysis from Hussman that I meant to include last night but did not. This is one of the things that happen when you finish a post at 5:30AM.

Please consider Corporate "Cash" - Cheering the Asset and Ignoring the Liability

Four years ago, in There's No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines, I observed:
"Investors should not believe that the "cash on the balance sheets" of corporations might suddenly be used, in aggregate, for new investments and capital spending. That cash on their balance sheets has already been deployed as loans to the Federal government and to other companies. Now, yes, if the government runs a surplus and retires its debt, in aggregate, or the other companies that borrowed the money generate new earnings and then pay off their debt, in aggregate, then those new savings that retire the T-bills and commercial paper then make it possible for the recipients to finance new investment, in aggregate. So as usual, savings equals investment, and new savings can finance new investment. But what investors often point to and call "cash on the sidelines" is really saving that has already been deployed and used either to offset the dissavings of government or to finance investments made by other companies. Once those savings have been spent, you can't, in aggregate, use the IOUs (in the form of money market securities) to do it again."

Now, as then, analysts are pointing to an apparent pile of corporate "cash on the sidelines" as if these holdings of debt securities somehow make new corporate spending more likely. In order to evaluate this argument, it's necessary to understand that what is being called cash is actually a stack of IOUs for money that has generally already been spent by other companies or by the government.

Don't get me wrong. At an individual company level, it's obvious that if DuPont has a bunch of marketable securities on its balance sheet, it is free to sell those securities and spend the money on new equipment and so forth. The issue is that somebody else has to buy those securities. At the end of the day, there is no less "cash on the sidelines" after that change of ownership than there was before.

Put simply, there is a lot of apparent "cash on the sidelines" because the government and many corporations have issued enormous quantities of new debt, often with short maturities, while other corporations have purchased it. It is an equilibrium. The assets that are held in the right hand represent debt that is owed by the left. You cannot call that pile of short-term marketable securities an asset without calling it a liability. The cash on the sidelines is evidence of debt incurred to fund economic activity that is already in the past. It will remain "on the sidelines" until the debt is retired. The government debt has been issued to finance deficit spending. At the same time, a great deal of corporate debt has been issued over the past year apparently as a pre-emptive measure against the possibility of the capital markets freezing up again.

Raising Cash While They Can

I have previously address some of these issues myself. For example please consider my August 12, 2010 article Are Corporations Sitting on Piles of Cash?

The Wall Street Journal claims U.S. Firms Build Up Record Cash Piles

U.S. companies are holding more cash in the bank than at any point on record, underscoring persistent worries about financial markets and about the sustainability of the economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that nonfinancial companies had socked away $1.84 trillion in cash and other liquid assets as of the end of March, up 26% from a year earlier and the largest-ever increase in records going back to 1952. Cash made up about 7% of all company assets, including factories and financial investments, the highest level since 1963.

"Stockholders don't want them to keep sitting on cash at a zero return," said Paul Kasriel, an economist at Northern Trust. "They're going to use it," either to increase hiring and investment or to make payouts to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks, he said.
Sideline Cash = Corporate and Government Debt

That corporations are sitting in piles might be dandy if it were true, but unfortunately it is not an accurate representation, at least in an aggregate sense.

John Hussman mentioned the corporate cash situation in Cheering the Asset and Ignoring the Liability. ....

Corporate Cash Lie

The article Hussman referred to is one I have been meaning to link to for several days.

Please consider The biggest lie about U.S. companies
Or you heard it from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, who recently said companies were "hoarding cash" but were afraid to start investing. Or on CNBC, where experts have been debating what these corporations are going to do with all their surplus loot. Will they raise dividends? Buy back shares? Launch a new wave of mergers and acquisitions?

It all sounds wonderful for investors and the U.S. economy. There's just one problem: It's a crock.

A look at the facts shows that companies only have "record amounts of cash" in the way that Subprime Suzy was flush with cash after that big refi back in 2005. So long as you don't look at the liabilities, the picture looks great. Hey, why not buy a Jacuzzi?

According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms borrowed another $289 billion in the first quarter, taking their total domestic debts to $7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. That's up by $1.1 trillion since the first quarter of 2007; it's twice the level seen in the late 1990s.

Note that I even referenced that Hussman post way back on August 12.

So as you can see, I am very aware of these issues. I concluded the above piece with my own thoughts ....

So, in spite of what most are saying, corporations are not really holding tons of cash, ready at any moment to go on an investment or hiring spree.

Instead, corporations burnt by inability to raise cash during the 2008 credit bust are simply taking advantage of market conditions to raise cash levels now, at attractive rates, while they can.

Corporations raise cash in two instances

1. When they can
2. When they have to

After the corporate bond blowup in 2008, companies are wisely focusing on #1, while they still can. How much longer the market is willing to allow debt financing at favorable rates remains to be seen. When it stops, equities are likely to get clobbered.

The closer one scrutinizes corporate cash, the less there is of it to see.

In short, except for a handful of companies, there is almost no cash that can be used for purposes mainstream media says.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

California Pension Promises Exceed 550% of State Tax Revenue by 2012; A Look at Solutions

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 11:20 AM PDT

To put a little perspective on the pension crisis, please consider the Bloomberg article California Pension Promises May Top Taxes Fivefold

To keep their promises to retirees, the California Public Employees Retirement System, the biggest plan, the California State Teachers Retirement System, the second-largest, and the University of California Retirement System may have combined liabilities of more than 5.5 times the state's annual tax revenue by fiscal 2012, according to the study released today by the Milken Institute. Levies are forecast to reach about $89 billion in the year that began July 1.

Debts to government retirees including those in California, the biggest state by population, have grown into a national crisis as pension plans strive to meet obligations to more than 19 million active and retired firefighters, police officers, teachers and other state workers. Fewer than half the plans had assets to cover 80 percent of promised benefits in fiscal 2009, according to data compiled for last month's Cities and Debt Briefing hosted by Bloomberg Link.

"California simply lacks the fiscal capacity to guarantee public-pension payments, particularly given the wave of state employees set to retire" in future years, said researchers Perry Wong and I-Ling Shen in the Milken report. "Structural shifts, coupled with the financial design and the accounting practices of state pension funds, all point to the fact that reform is imperative."

Addressing California's Pension Shortfalls

The study the above article referred to is Addressing California's Pension Shortfalls: The Role of Demographics in Designing Solutions from the Milken Institute.

Concurrently raising the retirement age and increasing employee contributions is only the first step in addressing California's looming public pension liabilities, according to a new report, Addressing California's Pension Shortfalls: The Role of Demographics in Designing Solutions from the Milken Institute. The situation will eventually call for even bolder action, such as shifting to hybrid plans with only a partial defined-benefit component.
Some of the key findings in the report include:

By around 2012 or 2013, the three major state pensions' obligations will be more than five times as large as total state tax revenue.
Not only will California's growing senior population depend on Medi-Cal and other state services, but public school enrollment is likely to rise in the coming years. The state can ill afford to fund pensions by cutting back on these services.
In 2009, the pension liability came out to $3,000 per working-age adult in the state. By 2014, it will triple to over $10,000 per working-age Californian.
Raising employee contributions alone will be less effective over time as the ratio of actively contributing members to benefit recipients continues to decrease.
Currently, the average state employee contributes to the system for 25 years, but will receive benefits for 26 years — and the number of benefit-receiving years is increasing as longevity improves.

Milken's Proposed Solutions

The Milken report recommends raising the retirement age and increasing employee contributions.

It also wants as shift from defined benefit plans to a hybrid plan with partial guarantees and a partial 401K type coverage.

I agree with the first set of proposals on retirement age and employee contributions. However, I strongly disagree with any guarantees.

The private sector has no guarantees. Pray tell why should taxpayers guarantee any benefit levels for public bureaucrats, most of whom are grossly overpaid in the first place.

Moreover, we need to get rid of public unions, privatizing every needed service, and killing all of the unneeded ones. The study fails to mention that as part of the solution.

Finally, I believe states should explore the legality of taxing all public sector pension benefits above some set amount, say $75K annual, at a very high penalty rate, say 90%. If legal, that would take care of the mess in one easy step.

Here is the Milken Slide Show on Addressing California's Pension Shortfalls.

It's worth a look to understand the magnitude of the crisis even if the proposed solutions are lacking.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Cash Cow: Who has the Cash, Who has the Debt, by Sector and Company

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 03:33 AM PDT

There are a lot of claims by mainstream media regarding cash on the sidelines and corporate cash levels.

Except for a handful of isolated companies, predominantly technology, claims are far-fetched. This interactive script showing the top 50 companies in the US by market cap is proof.

Please give the script time to load. It may take 10 seconds or more.

Thanks to Ellie Fields and Ross Perez at Tableau Software for help with the display!

As you can see, the total cash (in green) for the top 50 companies is $3.71 trillion, which sure sounds like a hell of a lot of cash, and it would be were it not for the debt (in red) totaling $4.45 trillion.

The data for this sheet is from Yahoo!Finance. Scroll over any of the bars (not the company name) to see more details. For example ...

Bank of America

Goldman Sachs

Apple

Goldman Sachs (GS), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC) and Qualcom (QCOM) are genuine cash cows, but JPMorgan (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) are charlatans. As for Citigroup, how much of that cash is needed for losses?

Relatively speaking, the tech sector has quite a few cash cows but it also has some real turkeys like AT&T (T), Comcast (CMCSA), Verizon (VZ), and IBM.

Google and Apple have the distinction of holding buckets of cash and no debt.

An award of sorts goes to General Electric (GE) with a monstrous net cash level of negative $415.9 billion.

It's fair to point out that a handful of tech companies could go on a buying spree, but in aggregate, if one factors in debt, a negative $749.6 billion is sitting on the sidelines. That's a far cry from the purported $trillions of sideline cash ready to come pouring into the stock market at a moment's notice.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

sâmbătă, 23 octombrie 2010

Daily Snapshot: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

It Gets Better

Seth's Blog : Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

More Recent Articles

vineri, 22 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

sâmbătă, 23 octombrie 2010

More Recent Articles

vineri, 22 octombrie 2010

Pagini

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Arhivă blog

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