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[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Every project (product, play, event, company, venture, non profit) has a million tasks that need to be done, thousands of decisions, predictions, bits of effort, conversations and plans.
Got that.
But what's the hard part?
The CEO spends ten minutes discussing the layout of the office with the office manager. Why? Was that a difficult task that could only be done by her? Unlikely.
The founder of a restaurant spends hours at the cash register, taking orders and hurrying the line along... important, vital, emotional, but hard? Not if we think of hard as the chasm, the dividing line between success and failure. No, the hard part is raising two million dollars to build more stores. Hard is hiring someone better than you to do this part of the job.
Hard is not about sweat or time, hard is about finishing the rare, valuable, risky task that few complete.
Don't tell me you want to launch a line of spices but don't want to make sales calls to supermarket buyers. That's the hard part.
Don't tell me you are a great chef but can't deal with cranky customers. That's the hard part.
Don't tell me you have a good heart but don't want to raise money. That's the hard part.
Identifying which part of your project is hard is, paradoxically, not so easy, because we work to hide the hard parts. They frighten us.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 18 Nov 2010 09:42 PM PST In speeches before a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt, Ben Bernanke went on an unprecedented attack, accusing China of throwing a monkey wrench into the global recovery, blaming China for slow global growth and a potential "End to the Tepid U.S. Recovery". He also said "The current international monetary has a structural flaw" calling on the "global community, over time, to devise an international monetary system that more consistently aligns the interests of individual countries with the interests of the global economy as a whole." Finally, he put up a misguided defense of Quantitative Easing that is sure to not go over well in the global community. If Bernanke was trying to spook the markets, provoke China, cause a currency war, and get Congress to launch an extremely foolish set of tariffs, he would have been hard pressed to deliver a more powerful speech. Please consider Bernanke turns up heat on China currency policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke put aside traditional central bank niceties and launched a direct attack on the slow pace of China's steps to strengthen its currency.Rebalancing the Global Recovery The text of one speech in Frankfort is on the Federal Reserve Website Emerging from the Crisis: Where Do We Stand? It's not worth a read as it contains none of the above fireworks. His speech Rebalancing the Global Recovery is the one to read. Here are a few snips. In my view, the use of the term "quantitative easing" to refer to the Federal Reserve's policies is inappropriate. Quantitative easing typically refers to policies that seek to have effects by changing the quantity of bank reserves, a channel which seems relatively weak, at least in the U.S. context. In contrast, securities purchases work by affecting the yields on the acquired securities and, via substitution effects in investors' portfolios, on a wider range of assets.Preaching to the World Bernanke is a man who could not find his ass with both hands and a roadmap when it comes to spotting the housing bubble, the recession, and levels of unemployment, yet he preaches to the world as if he has all the answers. He is so hellbent on preventing deflation that he cannot see anything else. It would help if he even understood what it was. It sure would help if he could understand that rising prices without rising wages will crucify the average citizen. But he is as blind, stubborn, academic wonk with no real world experience or common sense. I would love to debate him any day of the week. The one thing I agree with Bernanke on is in regards to the term Quantitative Easing. We should simply call "Printing Money" or "Monetizing the National Debt". The former has the advantage in that most of the population would have a chance at understanding the term. In regards to China, it bears repeating that what China is doing is no more manipulative that what the Fed is doing. In fact, a good case could be made that China's buildup of excess reserves has its origins in the housing bubble the Greenspan and Bernanke Fed blew. His defense of 2% inflation targeting is beyond idiotic. The last thing 14 million unemployed people need is rising prices. The other thing I agree with Bernanke on is the need for a "new" monetary system. The thing is, what's needed is not entirely new. We need a gold standard and the end of fractional reserve banking. In his speech, Bernanke blamed gold for causing the great depression. Nothing could be further than the truth. It was a runup in excessive credit accompanied by micromanagement of interest rates by the Fed that kicked off the Great Depression. Inciting Congress Wittingly or unwittingly, Bernanke may have just incited Congress in two ways. The first way is Congress is unlikely to back down on how it sees QE. The second, more serious way is Bernanke may have just incited Congress to label China a "Currency Manipulator" and enact a bunch of horrendously foolish tariffs. Heaven help us all if that is the result. It will not matter one bit whether or not that was his intention. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Newark Police Protest Union Treatment of Junior Officers Posted: 18 Nov 2010 05:44 PM PST I have been waiting for unions members to start bitching about how the union cannibalizes new members in contract negotiations. Today it happened. Please consider Facing layoffs, newer Newark police officers protest union's favorable treatment of senior officers Even as Newark's police officers facing layoffs publicly voiced their frustration with their union leadership, a state appellate court issued a ruling that could end their jobs as early as Friday.The Union Lie "Union officials say they are doing all they can to prevent the layoffs". All it would take to save those jobs is a small cutback in wages or benefits. Fire Them All The problem is doing this in piecemeal. The city should fire 100% of them. That would get the unions attention. That likely sounds impractical, but it's rather easy. Newark should consider one of two things, most likely both. 1. Declaring Bankruptcy 2. Outsourcing all police duties to a Sheriff's Association. The former is the real solution. Then the officers can see what benefits they can get in bankruptcy court. By doing the latter, Newark could get more officers for a reduced rate. It is high time cities play hardball with public unions. Taxpayers have had enough of paying more and more and more for fewer services. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 18 Nov 2010 11:51 AM PST Market participants are giddy today on the great news that Ireland will go deeper in debt in a foolish attempt to bail out the German and UK bondholders who were in turn foolish enough to lend ridiculous amounts of money to Irish banks in various real estate schemes. The Irish government was of course foolish enough to guarantee all of this foolishness which means that Irish citizens many of whom were sucked into buying property at foolish prices are now on the hook to bail out the bondholders, rubbing salt into the wounds of Irish taxpayers, not all of whom were foolish enough to freely participate in the general foolishness. Got that? Here is a short video from the Wall Street Journal that explains why the bailout will not work. Ireland Nears Bailout Now let's consider details of this foolishness in greater detail, starting with Crude Oil Rises From Four-Week Low as Ireland Nears Bailout Crude oil increased from a four-week low as Ireland moved closer to a European Union-led financial bailout, strengthening the euro and boosting commodities.Fairy Tale Nonsense Check out that fairy tale silliness from Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, then answer this question: What are the odds that a "substantial contingency capital funding" would not be drawn down? If you answered zero percent you are a winner, which makes the Irish taxpayer a loser. Allied Irish Bonds Have Face Value Bid of 45 Percent Bloomberg reports Allied Irish Bonds Fall on Concern IMF 'Bad Guy' to Impose Loss. Allied Irish Banks Plc's 12.5 percent subordinated bonds due 2019 were quoted at a bid price of about 45 percent of face value, according to Jefferies International in London, down from 100 percent in September. Credit-default swaps insuring 10 million euros ($13.6 million) of the debt cost 5.9 million euros in advance and 500,000 euros annually, according to CMA.UK Wants to "Help" Ireland Please consider Ireland May Be Next Greece as Europe's Economic Superstar Fades "Ireland is our closest neighbor, and it's in Britain's national interest that the Irish economy is successful and we have a stable banking system," says George Osborne, the U.K. chancellor. "So Britain stands ready to support Ireland in the steps that it needs to take to bring about that stability."New Buzzword "Namatized" NAMA stands for National Asset Management Agency, Ireland's "bad bank." Bloomberg notes that NAMA was created by the Irish government in 2009 to help stanch a crisis within the Irish banking system that has pushed the country to the edge of insolvency. NAMA clearly did not work. I am saddened to report Irish citizens have been "Namatized", a fitting tribute to the fools in Irish government that authorized the nonsensical guarantee of Irish bank debts. How Bankers Ruined Ireland Please consider Why the Irish Crisis is Going Global for a nice synopsis of how bankers ruined a once thriving Ireland. On the surface, it's reminiscent of the problem Greece had with its unmanageable federal debt early this year, which shook world markets, ended a global rally in stocks and ultimately led to a $146 billion bailout by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Greece spent more money than it took in for years, papered over the gap, and essentially became insolvent when it could no longer borrow the money needed to finance its debt.Rat's Ass Perspective on "Help" from UK, EU, and IMF Finally, I would like to repeat something I said in European Banks have $650 billion Exposure to Ireland; Germany's Economy Minister says "EU Cannot Throw Money from Helicopters" Rat's Ass PerspectivePostponed is Not Solved Bailout "help" will do nothing but overburden Ireland while making its problems worse down the road. Resentment will build up and hopefully Irish voters will do the same thing Icelandic voters did: throw the bums out and tear up the agreement. Meanwhile, Spain is waiting in the on-deck circle. The proverbial s* hits the fan when Spain comes up to bat. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Bear Flattener in Treasuries Continues; Mortgage Rates Climb Posted: 18 Nov 2010 10:07 AM PST Curve Watchers Anonymous has a quick update on US Treasuries. click on chart for sharper image The yield curve is flattening, in a bearish way. A Bull flattener would be when yields are dropping across the board with yields on the long end dropping more than the short end. In this case, 5-year and 10-year yields are up about 45-50 basis points from the low just after QE II started, while yields on 30-year treasuries are up only about 30 basis point. Daily Snapshot You can see this easily in a daily snapshot from Bloomberg. click on chart for sharper image As I have pointed out before, this action is not at all usual. It is an artifact of everyone front-running the Fed's announcement of Quantitative Easing purchases, then selling the news. Yields are higher across the board than in August when the Fed first hinted at another round of QE. Mortgage Rates Climb Curve Watchers Anonymous also points out that mortgage rates are on the rise Mortgage rates are a quarter point higher than a month ago and back to where they were three months ago, even as housing slips further into the gutter. Please see Bernanke Claims QE II will Create 700,000 to 1 Million Jobs; Where? Mexico, Peru, China for more on mortgage applications and mortgage rates. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Bernanke Claims QE II will Create 700,000 to 1 Million Jobs; Where? Mexico, Peru, China Posted: 18 Nov 2010 12:40 AM PST In the truth is stranger than fiction category, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke tells US Senators that Quantitative Easing will create 700,000 to 1 Million Jobs. Please consider Bernanke Defends Fed Stimulus in Closed-Door Talk With Senators Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke met with U.S. senators today to defend his expansion of record monetary stimulus, saying it would aid job growth and the central bank would control any inflation.Curiouser and Curiouser Inquiring minds are asking, if that's all it took, why didn't he do so in 2008 when the unemployment rate started soaring? Why not double it and create 1.4 to 2 million jobs? That last paragraph in the Bloomberg snip above has me wondering if Bernanke went down the rabbit hole. Allegedly Bernanke wants help from Congress to set Economic Policy?! Really? What about that big battle Bernanke had with Congress over that very same issue? Failure of QE Round One Round one of QE was supposed to stimulate housing. Did it? Lee Adler at the The Wall Street Examiner has a nice report on housing this month that touches on this very issue. Here are a few snips from a 19 page (subscription) PDF. Housing Report – Wednesday, November 17, 2010Anyone who refinanced at cheap rates has more money to spend each month, but that is the only conceivable point of success for QE I. The cost side of the equation is increased taxpayer exposure to Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA. QE II like Using Shotgun to Kill Mosquitoes The first and foremost problem in arbitrarily cranking up the printing presses is the Fed has no control of where the the money goes, or indeed if it goes anywhere at all. QE I at least had a definitive target, mortgages (not that it helped much, as noted above). QE II is more like trying to kill mosquitoes with a shotgun. Not many (if indeed any) pellets will hit the intended target. Cheap Money Creates Jobs in Mexico, Peru, China Bloomberg reports Bernanke's 'Cheap Money' Spurs Corporate Investment Outside U.S. Southern Copper Corp., a Phoenix- based mining company that boasts some of the industry's largest copper reserves, plans to invest $800 million this year in projects such as a new smelter and a more efficient natural-gas furnace.There are many more examples in the article. Yet somehow we are supposed to believe this shotgun blast will create 700,000 to 1 Million Jobs. Bernanke is out of his mind if he believes that. So is Bernanke out of his mind or is he purposely lying to Congress to shut them up? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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November Linkscape Index Update Live (and new Linkscape Wordpress Plugin) Posted: 17 Nov 2010 02:25 PM PST Posted by randfish Tonight, our 33rd Linkscape update launched. You'll find new link data in OpenSiteExplorer, the mozBar, Linkscape classic, the Link Intersect Tool and the SEOmoz API.
This update represents data crawled from the middle of October to the start of November - processing was unfortunately delayed by Amazon (weirdly, EC2 didn't have machines available due to a "pre-holiday rush"). We're aware of these issues and will be taking precautions to make sure December's index update goes smoothly. Stats for this index:
I'm also excited to say we've got the nascent beginnings of a Wordpress Plugin powered by Linkscape now available. There's just a few features today, but we'd like your help to tell us what would be valuable, useful and interesting to have in the Wordpress tool.
The plugin was built using just the FREE SEOmoz API. This is a very early version, and there may be some bugs, still, but if you have suggestions or feature ideas, please leave them in the comments! |
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