joi, 23 decembrie 2010

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Linkscape is Faster, Link Analysis is Improved & Other Goodies

Posted: 23 Dec 2010 05:02 AM PST

Posted by jennita


Yea.. Kinda like this.

Over the past few months our dev and product teams have been busy little bees working on some pretty exciting new enhancements and upgrades to the web app. Since it's the holiday season... we might even liken them to Santa's little elves building toys for all the good little SEOs around the world.

We've been rolling out quite a few updates each week. Some you've probably noticed, like the Linkscape index being updated faster and faster (Three cheers to Chas and Bryce for that!), while others may have gone unnoticed like fixing some pagination issues. I wanted to take this time to talk about a few of the bigger items we've released recently (even today!) and a few features you should watch for in the future.

Faster Linkscape Updates

As I mentioned above we're all in a tizzy over here about getting the Linkscape index updated quicker. Bryce and Chas on the dev team have made some major improvements to speed, so be sure to thank them for your fresh new data. :)

We just had the latest Linkscape update yesterday, check out the stats for index 35:

  • 38,807,464,322 (38.8 Billion) Pages
  • 360,354,116 (360 Million) Subdomains
  • 107,159,213 (107 Million) Root Domains
  • 393,701,245,290 (393 Billion) Links
  • 2.11% of All Links are Nofollowed (up 1.4% since early December)
    • 57.01% are internal (down from 57.66% in early December)
    • 42.99% are external (down from 43.34% in early December)
  • 6.51% of pages have rel=canonical
  • 62.02 links/page on average

Link Analysis Domain Report

Remember when you used to click on the Link Analysis tab and it would look like this:

Well today we're launching some amazing updates that will help you see in an instant how you're doing against your competitors. As an example, I have a campaign set up for my husband's photography site. Here's what the new Link Analysis tab looks like:

Screenshot of new Link Analysis tab in web app

You can visually see that the Photography for Real Estate site is obviously the larger domain of the 4 and clearly has more domain authority, mozTrust, etc. The interesting thing to note is that in local markets it doesn't always rank first. :) So, beyond this quick information about your site and each of the competitors, you can also do deeper analysis into the links:

Screenshot of New Link Analysis Competitive Comparison

In this view I'm looking at the Linking Root Domains, similar to what you find in Open Site Explorer. But you can also see followed backlinks, top pages and anchor text information as well. I have only showed my site and one competitor in the screenshot but on the page you'll see all the competitors. You can quickly take a peek into all your competitor's backlinks on this one page!

Plus, you can easily download a PDF report and/or export up to 10,000 links (or top pages, linking domains, anchor text) into a CSV file, all with the click of a button. Whee... Data FTW!

Note: This is being launched today... so if you don't see it quite yet, don't get discouraged! Take a break, then come back and try again. :D

Another Note: The top linking root domain to my husband's site is from seomoz.org because I linked to it from my profile. :)

New Keyword Ranking Emails

If you're using the web app, you've probably already received one of these sexy new Keyword Ranking Report emails. Now, you can quickly assess how well your keywords have been doing over the past week. Check out a sample email below:

Now if that email doesn't send you into automatic geek email heaven... then heck I don't know what would. :D

mozPoints Update

You may have noticed... or have even been alarmed to see that your mozPoints are no longer showing up in the right nav of the blog. Plus the Top User page has been a bit, shall we say, vacant lately. Well please don't worry! Your mozPoints have not gone away, and they are still showing up properly on your profile page. We are making some enhancements to the mozPoint system which will make more sense when we release our new profiles early next year. We apologize that we didn't let everyone know ahead of time before we made the changes! We received quite a few tweets, DMs, PMs, emails and support tickets asking where their mozPoints, rankings and Top User information went.

The bad news, you'll have to wait a couple weeks to see that information again on the right nav, but the good news is that there are exciting improvements coming soon! I know, I know, you all are going to ask to get more information about these improvements... I promise, all in good time. :) We have to keep some surprises around here!

About Us!

This is a super fun one. We've recently created a whole new About Us section that includes more information on how to contact us, more mozzers and our TAGFEE tenets, SEOmoz job openings, cool press and awards we've received, and upcoming SEOmoz events (where we're speaking + meetups and such).

A Few Other Recently Released Nuggets of Awesomeness

  • Firefox and Chrome toolbar update, with some fixes and position numbers added to the SERP overlay
  • Improvement to the rankings overview/history to display previous ranking data during retrieval of new rankings
  • New holiday Roger on the home page (can I get a w00t w00t!)
  • Manual selection of URLs for On-Page reports
  • Better canonicalization check at setup – will check for redirects as well as missing redirects
  • Repaired the ailing Juicy Link Finder

Stay On Top of What's New & Coming Soon

Plus, we've recently added the PRO Feature Change Log which you can access at any time to stay up-to-date on what's coming up next, or what changes have been recently implemented. Plus we've added a "request a feature" button to this page and hope that you'll utilize it! This is the best way to get that feature you've been dying to see in the web app.

Starting in January we have so many amazing new developments we're bursting at the seams over here! We hope you all have a very happy holiday season and can't wait to get the ball rolling in 2011. Be there or be square. 


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7 Predictions for SEO in 2011

Posted: 22 Dec 2010 04:56 PM PST

Posted by randfish

It's that magical time of year when all of us who foolishly assumed the mantle of clairvoyance last December check up on our abilities and repeat our arrogant presumption again. Not surprisingly, something compels me to try again, despite the odds, but I am feeling a bit whimsical tonight, so let's make a game out of the prediction practice. 

For each prediction (mine and others), we can grade using the following points system:

  • Spot On (+2) - when a prediction hits the nail on the head and the primary criteria are fulfilled
  • Partially Accurate (+1) - predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
  • Not Completely Wrong (-1) - those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
  • Off the Mark (-2) - guesses which didn't come close

The rule is - if the score is lower than +1, the blogger/industry leader/author isn't allowed to make predictions for the coming year.

So let's mark up my 8 predictions from last year and see whether new predictions are permitted:

  1. This Real Time Search Thing is Outta Here (+1) - technically, it's still around, though far less prevalent. I said "In 2010, I think this fades away. Perhaps not entirely, but we won't be seeing it for nearly as many queries with the prevalence we do today," which, on the scoring scale, probably deserves a "partially accurate."
  2. Twitter's Link Graph is the Real Deal (+2) - my guess seems oddly prescient when compared to Google + Bing's interview a few weeks back. "Google's not going to just take raw number of tweets or re-tweets. I think we're already seeing the relevance and reputation calculations in their decisions of which tweets and sources to show in the real-time results, and I expect that algorithms/metrics like PageRank, TrustRank, etc. will find their way into how Google uses the real-time data." I wonder if my luck can last.
  3. Personalized Search is Here to Stay (-1) - The title of this guess would make you think I'd got it right, but the substance is lacking. I noted that "If it's proven that you can get organic benefits by attracting PPC clickthrough, this may be the new "paid inclusion" for 2010, and could drive bid prices up massively as companies compete not only for paid listing clicks, but for the chance to earn "organic" positioning as well." Personalization bias didn't go towards brand exposure, and it actually hasn't got much stronger (apart from the localization element, which I didn't predict). Technically, it's still around, but it didn't become the juggernaut I thought it would.
  4. It's Going to Be a Two-Engine 80/20 World (+2) - Google's market share of web searches sending external traffic is likely very close to this (although Comscore reports only 66%, those numbers are heavily biased due to non-web-search "search" activity counted in the figures). A far better source would be something like StatCounter's referral data from the 15 billion pageviews/month on 3 million+ websites, which reports 81.88% for Google, and ~18% for Bing/Yahoo!. Given that Ask.com, Cuil and Yahoo! all folded their search operations this year, and Facebook/Twitter/Somebody Else Big hasn't entered the field, I'm giving this a "Spot On."
  5. Site Explorer and Linkdomain Will Disappear (+1) - Linkdomain is gone (at least in the US, and soon in most other countries), but it appears we'll still have until 2012(ish) with Site Explorer, so I'm giving this a (possibly slightly generous) rating of "partially accurate."
  6. SEO Spending Will Rise Dramatically (-1) - This one depends on the meaning of "dramatically." SEMPO's data suggests that 43% of marketers "expect" to spend more on SEO, but this is down 2% from 2009's survey. SEOmoz's own survey unfortunately doesn't compare apples to apples (we haven't asked the same question multiple years in a row and thus can't compare well). As of now, no new sources have come forward with data we're aware of (Forrester + eMarketer being the usual suspects). Thus, I'll give a "not completely wrong," since we really don't know.
  7. 2010 is the Year of Conversion Rate Optimization (-1) - Again, I'm going to say this was "not completely wrong" but it's also very tough to measure. We've had more speakers on CRO at search and marketing events of all varieties. Anecdotal reports would indicate CRO is becoming a more common and popular practice for organic marketers, but without solid numbers, it's hard to know. We can presume, however, that if there aren't lots of studies and data reports touting it, this probably wasn't "the year."
  8. More Queries Will Send Less Traffic (-1) - Given the launch of Google Instant, the personalization and localization of results, increased ranking inconsistency and more universal/vertical results in the SERPs, I'm going to say this is possibly near the mark, but not definitively correct. Google Instant, in particular, appears not to have moved the needle much on search demand and queries sending traffic. In fact, the only reason this is "not completely wrong" is due to my clever non-prediction of how many queries would send how much less traffic. :-)

Tallying the numbers, I'm seeing +6 and -4, for a total of +2, which means new predictions for 2011. I also invite you to analyze some of the many lists of predictions for this past year here. If my calculations are correct, Mashable and TechCrunch are out of the predictions business (the latter just barely) while the New York Times' Bits Blog should continue (though, like me, they made some pretty pansy predictions).

Without further ado, my predictions for SEO in 2011:

#1: Someone Proves (or a Search Engine Confirms) that Clicks/Visits Influence Rankings

I'm taking a chance on this one, but I've been hearing from more and more SEOs that there's some correlation between earning clicks and moving up in the rankings. In 2011, we'll get confirmation, either through testing or an admission from an engine that click-through-rate from the SERPs, visit count outside of search (or diversity of sources), or other usage-based data is in the ranking algorithm (or a method they use to help ID spam).

Clicks/Visits Matter

#2: Google Local/Maps Adds Filters and Sorting

The big reason Yelp is so much better than Google Maps/Local for finding a good local "place" isn't just the reviews (which Google aggregates from Yelp anyway). It's the filters that let me sort by features/pricing/proximity/open status/etc. Google's been playing the silly game of forcing users to choose search queries to enable rough, imperfect filtering, but 2011 is going to see the search engine shift to a model that allows at least some important filters/feature-selection.

Local Filters in Yelp

#3: Social Search Will Rise

There's power in social media search, and Google/Bing's efforts to date have been lackluster at best. I suspect in 2011, we'll see the nascent beginning of search that leverages Twitter/Facebook/LinkedIn connections to find results from your friends. It's possible this will start niche-based only (search articles your friends have shared, ala Trunk.ly), but it could also be broader - possibly something from Facebook or Twitter themselves.

#4: Rank Tracking Will Be Possibly Through the Referral String

Google's been slowly growing the percent of queries that contain the numeric position of the result in the referral data. Given how much this information means to marketers (even those who realize it's frequently not telling the whole story), and how much automated scraping/requests goes through each day, I'd venture to guess that Google will increase this further and maybe even add some support for it in GA (why force your engine to work harder and your impressions counts to suffer unnecessarily?)

#5: Mobile Will Have a Negligible Effect on Search/SEO

For years, I've heard the prognostication that SEO and search are going to be flipped on their heads once mobile query usage takes off. I'll boldly predict that not only will mobile usage of search NOT skyrocket in 2011 on the long-awaited J-curve, but that the mobile and normal web browsing experiences will continue to merge toward a single experience, thus negating much of the need for mobile-specific sites and SEO. They'll always be mobile-related marketing opportunities in games and local (though these are hardly limited to mobile devices), but  mobile SEO will pretty much just be "SEO."

Mobile SERPs
_

#6: Software Will Become an SEO Standard

For the decade I've been in SEO, software and tools have always been a "nice-to-have" and not a "must-have" (with the possible exception of web analytics). In 2011, I see several SEO software companies growing to critical mass based on the market's demand, possibly including: Raven Tools, Conductor's Searchlight, Brightedge, SearchMetricsRankAbove, DIYSEO and/or GinzaMetrics. Hubspot, while more of a CMS/holistic marketing tool, will also likely fit in this group as their SEO offerings get stronger. Oh, and SEOmoz's Web App could do pretty well, too :-)

#7: We'll Start to Move Away from the Title "SEO" to Something More All-Inclusive

For years, I've prided myself being an SEO and embraced the title, the community, the positives and the negatives that come with it. But with the search engines expanding so far afield in the signals they consider and the verticals/media types they include, I have to face facts - SEO today calls for much more of a talented generalist than a pointed specialist. We need to be savvy about and good at so many facets of organic web marketing that to call us "SEOs" is less empowering and more limiting than in the past.

SEO Skills
 


Now I'd love to hear some of your predictions for 2011 and see who's earned scores predicting 2010 that gives them the right to guess about 2011.

p.s. I didn't take the obvious "Google's going to crack down on more link spam" or "Social's going to be even more important" prediction gimmes, because I just don't think I'd respect myself tomorrow morning.


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Happy Holidays from the White House


The White House, Washington


Good morning,

The holiday season is one of my favorite times of year at the White House.

The White House truly feels like the “People’s House,” as folks of all ages from across the country pass through the halls enjoying the beautiful décor and celebrating the history here at every turn.

More than 100,000 visitors will come to the White House this holiday season, and we wanted to give everyone a chance to share in the magic of the White House during the holidays.

That’s why one of my favorite decorations this year is the Military Appreciation Tree where visitors can leave their holiday messages for our troops and their families, many of whom will spend this holiday season far away from their loved ones. You can send your own season’s greetings to our men and women in uniform and our military families, as well as see all the holiday decorations and watch behind-the-scenes videos, on WhiteHouse.gov. 

This year’s White House theme, Simple Gifts, is a celebration of the simple things that bring joy during the holidays, like spending time with family and friends and serving those in need in our communities.  And it’s a reminder to us all, particularly in these trying times, that some of the greatest gifts in our lives are those that don’t cost a thing. 

On behalf of Barack, Malia, Sasha, and Bo, I wish you and your family a very happy and healthy holiday season. 

Sincerely,

Michelle Obama
First Lady of the United States 

P.S. If you are looking for ways to give back to your community this holiday season, visit Serve.gov or check out the Toys for Tots program.


Visit WhiteHouse.gov




 
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Repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, Dec. 23,  2010
 

Photo of the Day

Photo of the Day

People in the audience listen as President Barack Obama speaks before signing the Don't Ask, Don't Tell Repeal Act of 2010 during a ceremony at the Interior Department in Washington, D.C. December 22, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza).

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

The President Signs Repeal of "Don't Ask Don't Tell": "Out of Many, We Are One"
The President puts in motion the end of a policy that has hurt our military as a whole, that has forced thousands of those who serve to do so under a cloud of anxiety and isolation, and that has stood as a symbol of the barriers to unity and equality in our country.

Repealing DADT: "History Making"
On the morning of December 22, hundreds of people came together to watch as the President signed the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell into law. Throughout the week, media outlets across the country have called the repeal a significant moment in civil rights history.

The President's Press Conference: "The Most Productive Post-Election Period We’ve Had in Decades"
In a press conference as this session of Congress draws to a close, the President reflects on the flurry of productivity for the American people during the final stretch.

Get Updates

 

 

 
 
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Seth's Blog : Three ways TV changed everything (and what's next)

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Three ways TV changed everything (and what's next)

TV changes everyone it touches.

TV brings mass. For fifty years, TV meant that programmers and advertisers had a very good chance to reach everyone, or almost everyone, at the same time. TV integrates a culture, because there's instant common touchstones being generated daily. (When I say, "yadda yadda yadda" or "where's the beef," you know what I mean, right?)

TV brings pluralism and diversity. This seems to contradict the first, but it doesn't. Once TV has opened a channel to the brain, it can bring in whatever it chooses, without clearing it with you first. So, the viewer can discover that people-who-don't-look-like-us aren't so different, or that women might be good cops, or that a member of the [insert oppressed group] might also be a person too.

and finally, TV brings dissatisfaction. Advertising needs to make you dissatisfied to work. And picture perfect sitcom families have more money and less trouble than most folks (because they're not real).

Now, of course, TV isn't what it used to be. No more three-channel universe. That means that the cable/internet virus changes everyone in a very different way. Call it the million channel world (mcw).

The mcw brings addressability. There is no mass any more. You can't reach everyone. Mad Men is a hit and yet it has only been seen by 2% of the people in the USA.

The mcw bring silos, angry tribes and insularity. Fox News makes a fortune by pitting people against one another. Talkingpointsmemo is custom tailored for people who are sure that the other side is wrong. You can spend your entire day consuming media and never encounter a thought you don't agree with, don't like or don't want to see.

And finally, I have no idea if the mcw is making us happy. Surely, a substantial use is time wasting social network polishing, and that's not really building anyone's long-term happiness. And the mcw makes it easier to get angry, to waste time (there's never 'nothing on') or become isolated. Without a doubt, the short-term impact of mcw is that it makes it easy to spread terror and harder to settle on the truth. At the same time, there's no doubt that more people are connected to more people, belong to more tribes, have more friends, and engage more often than they did before it got here. We got rid of some gatekeepers, but there's a race for some new ones. In the meantime, a lot of smart people are fending for themselves, which isn't so bad.

One thing we learned from the TV age that's still true: more media is not always better, particularly when we abdicate our power to filter and choose.

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miercuri, 22 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Miami-Dade Mayor Faces Recall Over Tax Hikes; Recalls Pending in Chattanooga and Omaha

Posted: 22 Dec 2010 08:35 PM PST

Finally! Taxpayers in Miami-Dade have had enough. A petition to recall Mayor Carlos Alvarez has gathered double the number of signatures required.

I wholeheartedly endorse this move by taxpayers and encourage other such efforts in every city where the law allows recall efforts.

Please consider Florida: Miami Mayor Faces Recall
Mayor Carlos Alvarez of Miami-Dade County faces a recall after opponents gathered enough signatures to force an election. The drive came after the county raised the property-tax rate to balance its budget. The county commission must call an election in 45 to 90 days, Harvey Ruvin, clerk of courts, said Tuesday. Recalls are also being sought in Chattanooga, Tenn., and Omaha after proposed tax increases.
Please check out the Recall Mayor Alvarez initiative.

Under Mayor Alvarez's watch, Miami-Dade's unemployment rate rose to 14.4 percent – almost 5 percent higher than the national average. At the same time, the Mayor's proposed budget calls for "hiking property tax rates 14 percent." Voters need to regain control. Mayor Alvarez needs to be RECALLED!



Mayor Alvarez May Challenge Recall Effort

Inquiring minds note Mayor Alvarez May Challenge Recall Effort
The math for Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez is stark. A recall effort aimed at him has certified nearly twice the number of voter petition signatures needed to force a countywide recall election by next spring. Alvarez said Wednesday, "I believe the voters have a right to vote on this issue. However I will not give up my right to challenge something that is wrong."

He says his legal team has found discrepancies with notary stamps and signatures but concedes it is not likely enough to derail a recall election. At the heart of that effort, organized by auto tycoon Norman Braman, is anger over the property tax rate hike recommended by Alvarez, and approved by county commissioners three months ago.

Alvarez defended his position. He said Wednesday, "I have preserved the fire department, number one, the police department, number two, the parks department and social services. If people are upset because some of them got tax notices and their taxes went up slightly so be it. But at the end of the day I have to live with myself."
Stop The Tax Increase

Miami is bankrupt and Florida is ground zero for the property bubble bust. But that does not stop Mayor Carlos Alvarez from sucking every last drop of blood from taxpayers. As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, not a single police of fire department job need be lost. All it takes is concessions from unions, not tax hikes to support those who get wages and benefits the average private sector worker can only dream of.

I heard of this success a few moments ago from reader "RM" who writes ...
Dear Mish,

I really enjoyed your Ten Themes for 2011. Good thought provoking stuff.

On Monday it was announced that billionaire Braman got enough signatures to have a special recall election to vote out Miami-Dade (County) Mayor Carlos Alvarez, who is more responsible than Miami (City) Mayor Regalado for the public union raises and tax hikes (inc. property tax hikes that hurt me). I am sure that your article(s) awhile back helped spark this little voter reaction here.

Best,

RM
Indeed I have blasted corruption and fraud in Miami and backed this recall effort. However, 100% of the credit for this recall campaign goes to the citizens of Miami-Dade led by Norman Braman, for this worthwhile effort.

I have no doubt the police, fire departments, and probably the teachers' unions as well will come out with massive fearmongering campaigns against the recall. Please do what you can to help.

The recall effort was a preliminary success but far more work needs to be done. Please Join the Recall Mayor Alvarez Campaign . I suggest a pledge of time, money, printing, or advertising.

Let's turn this first-round victory into a final knockout!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011

Posted: 22 Dec 2010 10:06 AM PST

1. US Municipal Bankruptcies Head to Center Stage

Look for Detroit and at least one other city in Michigan to go bankrupt. Also look for increasing discussions regarding bankruptcy from Los Angeles, Miami, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. Those cities are definitely bankrupt, they just have not admitted it yet. The first major city to go bankrupt will cause a huge stir in the municipal bond market. Best to avoid Munis completely.

2. Sovereign Debt Crisis Hits Europe

The ECB and EU are hoping things return to normal and they can deal with things more calmly in 2013. The markets will not wait. Expect a new Parliament in Ireland to want to renegotiate whatever horrendous deal Prime Minister Brian Cowen agrees to. Portugal and Spain will need bailouts. The surprise play in Europe will be Italy, a country not on anyone's front burner. Italy will come under intense credit market pressure, and when it does the whole Eurozone comes unglued. Europe's banks are insolvent and ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will have a choice, haircuts or massive printing.

3. Cutbacks in US Cities and States

With Republican governors holding a majority of governorships, with Republicans holding a majority in the House, and with a far more conservative Senate, there is going to be little enthusiasm for increasing aid to states. There will be some aid to states of course, but nowhere near as much as needed to prevent cutbacks. Expect to see a huge number of layoffs and/or cutbacks in services. Cutbacks in cities and states will be a good thing, but that will counteract other gains in employment. The unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high.

4. Public Unions Under Intense Attack

Public unions will face increasing hostility, not only in the US but also the Eurozone and UK. Look for Congress to consider legislation to kill collective bargaining. If it passes, the president would veto it. The problem however will not go away. Cities and states in distress will increasingly outsource every contract they can.

5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes Coming

China, everyone's favorite promised land, has a hard landing. China will grow at perhaps 5-6% but that is nowhere near as much as China wants, or the world expects. Tightening in China will crack its property bubble and more importantly pressure commodities. The longer China holds off in tightening, the harder the landing.

6. Property Bubble Bursts Wide Open in Australia and Canada

Australia, having largely avoided the global recession runs out of luck this time around. Look for the Australian economy to fall into outright recession. Look for Canada to slow dramatically as its property bubble pops. The US property bubble is much further progressed, by years, than Australia, Canada, and China. This matters immensely.

7. US Avoids Double Dip

The tax cut extensions and the payroll tax decrease will keep the US out of recession. However, growth estimates are still too high. The tax cut extensions do nothing more than maintain the status quo while the payroll tax deduction is just for a year. Most will use it to pay down bills. Look for GDP at 2.0-2.5%. That is the stall rate.

8. Year That Something Matters

For the global equity markets, this will be the year that something matters. Certainly nothing mattered in 2010, and optimism for equities is at extreme levels. I have no targets other than a suggestion this is an extremely poor time to invest in darn near anything.

9. Decoupling in Reverse

I do not think any countries decouple in 2011, including China. However, on a relative basis, the US could. Europe is a basket case, China is overheating, Australia is headed for recession, the UK is going nowhere, and 2.0-2.5% growth in the US just might look damn good compared to anything else. Bear in mind far more than 2.0-2.5% US growth is priced in, but on a relative basis that is likely to smash the performance of the Eurozone, Australia, and Canada. China may grow 5.0-6.0% but with 10% priced in, overweight China, the emerging markets and the commodity producing countries is a serious mistake. Actually, equities are a mistake in general and so are commodities. Finally, falling commodity prices would be US dollar supportive and supportive of a decreasing US trade deficit as well, especially if grain prices stay high while oil sinks. Should grains stay firm while other commodities sink, it would help boost US GDP.

10. US Dollar to Strengthen

Look for the US dollar to strengthen because of the net effect of all the above issues.

Relative Performance Examples

On a relative but not absolute basis I like the US. On a currency adjusted basis I especially like Japan. Here is a hypothetical example: Should foreign equities drop 20% and the US dollar strengthen 10% the loss to US investors would be 30%. Should Foreign investors buy US equities and face a loss of 20% and a 10% rise in the dollar, they would see a 10% loss. US investors of course would see the full 20% loss. Japan looks attractive in nominal terms but strengthening of the dollar compared to the Yen could negate some if not all of that. Equities in general, with the possible exception of Japan do not look attractive.

Miscellaneous Issues

The order in which the above themes play out could be important. If a muni crisis hits the US before a sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China, the dollar may not initially perform as expected. Similarly, if the US strengthens more than expected in the first quarter while Europe and China stagnate, another leg down in treasuries may be in store with the US dollar quickly blasting higher.

I have no firm conviction for gold, silver, or US treasuries other than gold is likely to hold its own and then some should the ECB decide to print its way out of this mess.

US treasuries are now in no-man's-land dependent on the order of things and the reactions of foreign central banks as the crisis plays out. Seasonally, treasuries are generally weak until June (think tax purposes). However, there are so many factors now, including Fed purchases, it is hard to estimate.

2010 was a lull in the global economic crisis. Don't expect 2011 to be the same. Something, indeed many things, are likely to matter in 2011.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Local SEO Experiment - Google's Change Location

Posted: 21 Dec 2010 10:00 AM PST

Posted by Dr. Pete

Special thanks to Joanna Lord, Michael Cottam, and Lindsay Wassell for helping me collect data. Also, thanks to Danny Dover for explaining to me how all my initial ideas were wrong ;)

Back in October, Google added the ability to easily change the location from where you search. It's located just under the search verticals – click on "Change Location," and you'll see something like the screen below (lower-left):

Screenshot of Change Location

Obviously, this is of tremendous value to anyone doing local SEO, but given Google’s uneven support for opting out of personalization, I had to wonder whether the location feature was really accurate. If I set my location to another city, would I really see what my clients and prospects were seeing?

Obligatory Disclaimers

What I'm about to describe isn't the most scientific experiment; it's just an initial exploration of whether Google's "Change Location" feature matched up across different cities for different users. Your results may vary. If your experiences differ, we'd love to hear your comments.

The Basic Experiment

I grabbed 3 of the finest minds in SEO (or, at least, that's what I told them so they'd volunteer) from 3 US cities other than mine (we kept this domestic to avoid any complications from ccTLDs). I’m in Chicago, Joanna is at Moz HQ in Seattle, Michael is in Portland, and Lindsay is in Tampa.

For each city, we picked a one-word query that had a distinct local flavor (suggested by the respective localite). We kept it to the realm of food and drink, because who doesn’t like to eat and drink? The final queries were:

  1. Chicago - "pizza"
  2. Seattle - "coffee"
  3. Portland - "pubs"
  4. Tampa - "seafood"

Each of us started with our own city, ran the query, and recorded two things: (1) where the local search results began, and (2) the URLs for the local search results. If there were 3 organic results prior to the first local result, they started at position 4, for example. The new, integrated results are a bit tricky, but we counted any results with a letter (A)-(G) as a local result, whether it was specifically a "Places" result or not. We repeated the process for each of the 4 cities/queries.

Prior to running searches, we each logged out of our Google accounts. We tested adding the &pws=0 parameter to remove personalization, but there was no case where this had any impact on our results. City order was rotated across the 4 participants.

The Basic Results

I was all set to develop some really complicated math to determine how 2 sets of queries matched each other, but the real results ended up being so black-and-white, that I've just created a grid of how the 4 participants' results matched up. If I had Site X in position (D) and someone else did, too, that's a match, plain and simple:

Local Results Table

The table shows how each person’s results match up to the local user's results (represented by the city name). The diagonal (grayed-out) is always a 100% match, since that person is the local user. For these searches (being fairly popular), all local results were 7-packs. Chicago, Portland, and Tampa local results started after 3 organic listings (position #4). Seattle local listings started in the #1 position (more on that below).

The short takeaway - Florida is trouble. Our results matched completely, except for Tampa, where each of our results were completely different from Lindsay's (although our 3 sets of non-local Tampa results all matched). Digging deeper, it turns out that Lindsay is out in the burbs a bit, and her results tended to be more local to her area. The rest of us are located closer to the city centers.

Local SEO Implications

If you're a city dweller, the results were fairly promising. It seems that Google is taking the location setting at face value and not adding much personalization into the mix. Even though we had logged out, anecdotal evidence suggested that logged in results were similar. The good news is that the "Change Location" feature should be a useful tool for SEOs who do a lot of local work with clients in other cities. Of course, it never hurts to sanity-check your results in any given situation.

One Last Oddity

The latest Google SERPs seem to be integrating organic and local results in some cases, and I suspect that a domain's overall authority could be impacting the placement of their local result. In our mini-experiment, the Seattle/"coffee" results exhibited an odd behavior, as shown in the screenshot below:

Starbucks Search Result

The Starbucks "local" listing appears in the #1 spot, even though the second local listing isn't until #4. This seems to be a factor of Starbucks’ overall authority. If I change my location back to Chicago, Starbucks is still #1, but I see a local Starbucks address.

It's clear that a lot is changing in local search, and I think we can expect to see more integration of the overall organic and local algorithms (while local retains some unique factors, like citations and reviews). Whatever happens, though, the new "Change Location" tool seems to be a real window into the local algorithm and should be a welcome addition for local SEOs.


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