marți, 28 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Illinois Governor Wants to Borrow $15 Billion to "Balance" the Budget; Illinois Total Unfunded Liabilities Exceed $200 Billion Already

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 06:15 PM PST

The state of Illinois elected a Keynesian nutcase of epic magnitude in Governor Quinn. Quinn's latest brainstorm is to borrow $15 billion to "stabilize things".

Quinn has not said how he will pay back the loans. Then again, he does want to raise taxes like mad and probably will do so. Regardless of what he does, Quinn is so beholden to unions, Illinois will need to borrow again 12 months from now.

Please consider Quinn Weighs $15 Billion Illinois Borrowing 'Option'
Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is considering borrowing $15 billion to pay overdue bills and balance the biggest budget deficit in the state's history.

Illinois faces a budget shortfall of at least $13 billion because of declining tax revenue. The state Senate in November didn't have the votes to approve the borrowing of $3.7 billion to cover pension-fund contributions for the fiscal year that ends June 30.

Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan declined through spokesmen to say if the bond sale would draw enough support to pass.

The Senate Republican leader, Christine Radogno, criticized the proposal as lacking specifics about how the money would be paid back.

Other ideas under consideration include a 2 percentage- point increase in the state income tax that the Senate approved in 2009. The current rate is 3 percent. The House didn't take the measure up for a vote.

Quinn's new borrowing proposal, which the Chicago Tribune reported today, drew criticism from one municipal-bond investor. Matt Dalton, chief executive officer of Belle Haven Investments Inc., in White Plains, New York, questioned the wisdom of borrowing.

"He's trying to sign up for another credit card," said Dalton. "That's going to put a lot of pressure on Illinois."

The cost of insuring Illinois's bonds against default rose to the highest level in five months as the state headed for the new year without a plan to finance the pension-fund contributions.
Illinois Needs Over $200 Billion Not $15 Billion

Illinois current budget deficit is $13 billion. However, Illinois debt including pension underfunding is $130 billion for fiscal year 2009.

I talked about this 10 months ago in Illinois Pension Fund $61 Billion Underwater; State Borrows Money For 2010 Contribution; California $20 Billion in the Hole Again
Illinois's pension fund is deep in the hole and getting deeper every year.

The state's reaction never changes: borrow money and hope the returns beat the cost of borrowing. Former governor Rod Blagojevich tried that to the tune of $10 billion and it worked out less than spectacularly to say the least. Nonetheless Illinois is back at it for 2010.

Illinois Is Broke

Inquiring minds are looking at Illinois Is Broke, a website mentioned in the above article.
By July, Illinois will be $130,000,000,000 in debt. This crushing load hampers the state's ability to fund public schools and universities, health care, and other essential public services. Most of that money is owed to the state's pension funds and retiree health care plans. And YOUR SHARE of that debt is $25,000 per household.

How did this happen? Basically, Illinois spends $3 for every $2 it takes in. Only in Springfield is this kind of math possible. The state accomplishes this by borrowing or by simply ignoring its unpaid bills. And it has been doing so for years.
Here are a couple charts from the site. Click on either charts to see a sharper image.

Illinois Budget Gap


Illinois Needs Over $200 Billion Not $15 Billion

Flash forward to fiscal year 2010 and take a look at Illinois pension liabilities as shown in Interactive Map of Public Pension Plans; How Badly Underfunded are the Plans in Your State?



Illinois pensions alone are $208 billion underfunded using realistic measures. The overall level of funding is 29%, the worst in the nation.

Click on the above link to see how your state fares.

Governor Quinn's Crazy Borrowing Plan Makes State's Problem Worse

Please consider this email from John Tillman at the Illinois Policy Institute.
Governor Quinn's Crazy Borrowing Plan Makes State's Problem Worse

CHICAGO – Governor Quinn's borrowing plan will worsen the state's fiscal health, not improve it, notes the nonpartisan Illinois Policy Institute. The independent think tank points out that while borrowing now might give the state some temporary breathing room, the funding of core government services will be threatened in the future as the cost of debt service mounts.

"Governor Quinn's borrowing will hit the working class, poor, and disadvantaged of Illinois the hardest," said John Tillman, CEO of the Illinois Policy Institute. "Borrowing costs, combined with annual increases in the expected pension contribution, will crowd out basic government functions in the near future. Our past borrowing is already catching up to us. Illinois would have had an extra $1.6 billion in available revenues this year if not for the debt service costs of previous years' borrowing."

The Institute urges lawmakers to face up to the unsustainable structural overspending that is driving the deficits year after year. The Institute's Budget Solutions 2011 alternative budget showed how Illinois could balance the FY2011 budget, make the pension payment, and have money left over to begin paying down past-due debt—all without a tax increase or borrowing. Had Governor Quinn followed that roadmap, the Institute argues, Illinois would be in far better shape today. Instead, Governor Quinn has put his focus on borrowing and tax hikes in order to avoid taking on the public employee unions, Medicaid reforms, and other reforms offered by the Institute and others.

"It's worth remembering that Governor Quinn only found one program—out of thousands—to veto outright when he signed this year's spending bill in July. Had he taken a closer look at structural spending reforms and not agreed to politically motivated "no layoff and closure" deals with public employee unions, we could be on the path back to recovery instead of being stuck in ever-mounting debt," noted Tillman.

Governor Quinn wants to pair the unprecedented borrowing with tax hikes on those who can least afford it. Under one revenue plan calling for a 66 percent income tax hike, a firefighter and a preschool teacher with two kids earning a combined $80,000 would have to pay $1,440 more in state taxes. This is more than double the expected savings from the federal tax cuts recently signed by President Obama. Struggling families shouldn't have to bear the brunt of the state's ill-advised spend-and-borrow habits.

The Illinois Policy Institute recently released a study, How to Lose Jobs and Alienate People, providing statewide and county-by-county income and job loss estimates associated with plans to increase the state income tax. The study, along with a tax calculator to see how the tax increase would impact individual taxpayers, is available at What You Need to Know: Tax Hike Research and Resources.
Quite literally Illinois is insolvent and Governor Quinn thinks borrowing another $15 billion will help.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


LPS Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Inventory Rising for 5th Straight Month, Nearly 2.2 Million Loans are 90 days+ Delinquent Not Yet in Foreclosure

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 03:13 PM PST

A press release from LPS' Mortgage Monitor Report shows Foreclosure Inventory Rising for 5th Straight Month
The November Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS) shows that the volume of loans moving to REO continued to drop as moratoria further delayed foreclosure sales. While the 90+ delinquency category has steadily declined, the number of loans moving to seriously delinquent status beyond 90 days far outpaced the number of foreclosure starts. Nearly 2.2 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.

Foreclosure inventories also continued to rise for the fifth straight month as delinquent accounts are referred for foreclosure, but the sale of foreclosure properties continued to decline. When compared to January 2008 levels, the foreclosure inventory of Jumbo Prime loans is nearly seven times higher; the inventory of Agency Prime loans is nearly six times higher; and the foreclosure inventory of Option ARM loans is approaching five times the inventory in January 2008.

The report also shows that one-third of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent have not made a payment in a year; however, the number of new problem loans declined nearly 5.4 percent from October, which is opposite of the seasonality trend that typically impacts new delinquencies this time of year. Self-cures for loans one to two months delinquent increased in November to a six-month high.

In the month of November, 261,153 loans were referred to foreclosure, which represents a 0.7% month-over-month decline. The total number of delinquent loans is nearly 2.1 times historical averages - and foreclosure inventory is currently at 7.7 times historical averages.

As reported in LPS' First Look release, other key results from LPS' latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

  • Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 9.02 percent
  • Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: 4.08 percent
  • Total U.S. non-current* loan rate: 13.10 percent
  • States with most non-current* loans: Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, Georgia, New Jersey
  • States with fewest non-current* loans: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Montana
Charts From The Report

The report is 34 pages long. Inquiring minds may wish to give it a closer look. Here are a few select charts.

click on any chart for sharper image

Delinquent and Foreclosure Rates by Month



Total Delinquency Percent Excluding Foreclosures



Total Foreclosure Percent By Product



Foreclosure Increase Compared to January 2008



Loan Cures



Serious Delinquencies



Foreclosure Starts vs. Serious Delinquencies




While there are some welcome trends in direction, actual foreclosures are lagging. The pent-up need to foreclose is huge.

Moreover, mortgage rates have rising nearly a full percentage point in the last 45 days. This will put a damper on already depressed home sales, making it harder to unload inventory.

Look for months of inventory to soar in the upcoming months with continued declines in home prices. Contrary to what most think, falling prices are a good thing. Home prices need to fall to a point low enough where genuine demand kicks in.

Foreclosure moratoriums are counterproductive and exacerbate existing problems.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


China, ECB Gov't Bond Auctions Fail; Chinese Interbank Lending Rate Hits 5.67% vs. 3.68% Gov't Bills; ECB Monetizes Bond Purchases; Gold, Silver Soar

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 09:51 AM PST

Gold and silver are up sharply with bank auction failures in China and Europe today. Interbank lending rates in China doubled in a week and hit a three-year high of 5.67% vs. the failed auction on 91-day securities yielding 3.68%. This was the Second China Failure This Month To Complete Bill Sale.
China's government failed to draw enough demand at a bill sale for the second time in a month as seasonal demand for funds and higher reserve-requirement ratios left banks with less cash.

The finance ministry sold 16.76 billion yuan ($2.53 billion) of 91-day securities, falling short of the planned 20 billion yuan target, according to a statement on the website of Chinabond, the nation's biggest debt-clearing house. The average winning yield was 3.68 percent, higher than the 3.22 percent rate for similar-maturity debt in the secondary market yesterday.

"Banks are badly short of cash," said Qu Qing, a bond analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai. "Given the cash squeeze, the central bank probably won't announce any tightening measure by the end of this year."

The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures lending costs between banks, has more than doubled in the past two weeks and yesterday reached a three-year high of 5.67 percent, according to daily fixings published at 11 a.m. by the National Interbank Funding Center.

"The market is desperate for cash," said Chen Liang, a bond analyst at Guohai Securities Co. in Shenzhen. "It's too costly to park money with debt at such a price given the seven- day repo rate has risen above 5 percent."

"Some banks may be buying the local currency in the foreign-exchange market because it's hard to borrow money in the fixed income," said Li Tao, a foreign exchange trader at Shenzhen Development Bank Co. in Shenzhen. "There is also concern the appreciation may get quicker before President Hu's visit."
The auction was for 20 billion Yuan which is a mere 3.2 billion US dollars and it could not find bidders for that paltry amount. Is this a "year-end" thing or the start of a cash crunch? Regardless, watch what happens when China's property bubble takes a big nosedive.

ECB Monetizes Bond Purchases

Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB fails to fully offset government bond buys, thereby monetizing 13.5 billion euros in government bond purchases.
The European Central Bank failed to attract the 73.5 billion euros from banks on Tuesday needed to offset its seven-month run of euro zone government bond purchases, instead managing to draw just over 60 billion.

"It has happened before but I wouldn't make too much of a big deal out of it," said ING economist Martin Van Vliet.

"The end of year is typically a quiet period and banks books are closed so it shouldn't be seen as a sign that tensions are returning to interbank markets."
Once again we ponder the question "Is this a year-end phenomenon or the start of something more significant?" Right now I suggest China is the real deal. I do not know about the ECB failure but it sure does not look pretty, regardless of the reason.

$SSEC - Shanghai Index Drops 1.74%



click on chart for sharper image

The Shanghai Stock Index is where it was in June 2009. The rally that fueled US equities (Bernanke's printing press), did not do the same for the $SSEC in spite of rampant price inflation and a massive expansion of credit and money supply in China.

Metals



The entire metals futures market is up today, with gold up nearly $22 to $1405 and silver up nearly a buck to $30.20. Copper futures hit a new all-time high of $4.30 a pound. In contrast, oil is nearly flat, up 38 cents to $91.38.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


5 Creative Solutions to Tough SEO Challenges

Posted: 27 Dec 2010 02:40 PM PST

Posted by randfish

December has been a surprisingly busy month for my email inbox, with questions on nearly every SEO subject imaginable. In answering many of these quandries, a common theme emerged - that many marketers engage in SEO challenges with a singular focus on the most common / best practice techniques and don't stray into a creative, imaginative mindset to find alternatives.

Here, then, are six examples of problems I've seen where creativity might prevail over standard techniques.

#1 - High Budget Reputation Management Issues

Several SEOs I know are currently involved in high-budget reputation management, where a company, product or person is attempting to assert control of the search results for their name/brand. Most of the standard techniques involve linking to and/or creating positive or neutral content about the target to push down the negative content.

A creative, alternate methodology might be to create diversity by introducing multiple brands/people with the same or similar names. For example, if a Mr. Thomas Thompson is attempting to push down negative results for his name, you might seek to boost up the profiles/rankings of other Thomas Thompsons and generating buzz about them to make the engines consider applying diversity algorithms to the results. Similarly, you could create fictional profiles (pseudonyms) or characters for the same effect. Hollywood movies, TV shows, short films, authors and actors can even be persuaded through funding or other means to name characters or products a certain way. 

#2 - Problems Getting Large E-Commerce Sites Indexed

A number of large e-commerce site marketers have experienced considerable challenges getting deep content indexed. The common solutions include optimizing XML Sitemaps, carefully crafting internal navigation and working to drive more links to deep pages, all of which are certainly recommended techniques, but eventually reach a point of exhaustion.

My recommendations are often to try a few alternatives, including:

  • Eliminating a large number of pages, particularly faceted forms of navigation (making them accessible only to logged-in or cookied human users and employing rel=canonical), but also products that have very low search volume, no inventory, low margins or frustrating availability. By limiting your product catalog online, you can then achieve full indexation and build upon it.
  • Creating product feeds, product category blogs and even category/product Twitter accounts to help send indexing signals to the engines. A blog about each of your main categories featuring posts about a few products each day via something like a Tumblr blog can, with a small amount of editorial effort, enable indexing of a few new URLs each day. Over the course of 12-18 months, this can add substantively to the bottom line and be reproduced. Ditto for Twitter and product feeds, though both will need to provide real value to subscribers/consumers (perhaps "deal of the day" type content) to earn subscribers/followers and show the engines they're not just empty scrapers.
  • Rewriting or adding to the written content on a few hundred sample pages that aren't being indexed. I'm frequently seeing that what appears to be a lack of PageRank/link juice to earn indexing is actually a case of "not enough unique content." If the site is seeing regular crawling to pages that don't make their way to the index, this is often a worthwhile exercise.

#3 - Generating Unique Content for Large Numbers of Pages

When you reach the tens or hundreds of thousands of pages and all need to be separately indexed, the resulting need for more "unique content" on each page can seem an overwhelming task. The common approaches are to either hire/contract/find in-house editorial writers or leverage user-generated content to help boost the content uniqueness, but other approaches are also available.

  • Human labor using sources like Mechanical Turk or similar services, which I've written about extensively in the past
  • Building content the Google way - by aggregating the popular words, phrases and sentences others use to describe it (with citation of course). As an example, see how Urbanspoon quotes restaurant reviews or Rotten Tomatoes aggregates critics' reviews. You could even add multimedia content with YouTube, Flickr or other sources. Just be aware that editorial content and review is still critical to make sure these pages are adding value rather than just automatically scraping and re-purposing.
  • Prioritizing. Many site owners seem to feel that a unique-content project means that every page deserves equal attention, when in fact, it's likely that giving 80% of the effort to 20% of the pages is a much smarter play. Determine the pages that add real value, add your content efforts there, and see the impact before moving on to the long tail.

#4 - Overcoming a Competitor with a Much Stronger Link Profile

I see marketers banging their heads and their link building efforts against a wall, trying to outearn a competitor with a strong lead for a particular keyphrase (or a small handful).

Instead of trying to beat them at their own game, why not work around the system?

  • Try alternative keywords that could get at the same audience before they're conducting that specific, high-converting search
  • Consider video content on the major platforms and your own site (using the Video XML Sitemaps protocol) to earn video rankings on the same page (which often draw as many clicks/visits as the first few results)
  • Create news, blog posts and tweets to help trigger the QDF algorithm and get alternate content types you own in front of searchers and ahead of the first "organic" result
  • Win the social, branding and "mention" battle, which will often turn to links and recommendations over time, eventually earning you top rankings.
  • Influence search queries and content on the web through branding, news, social media, content creation, etc. to make Google's Suggest/Instant feature recommend more targeted queries that you own in the rankings.

#5 - Earning Natural, Editorial Links with Optimized Anchor Text

Perhaps the most comment complaint I see in the white hat v. black hat back-and-forth is that white hat link building never earns ideal anchor text. Bollocks!

  • Profile and biographical paragraphs are one of the best ways to earn the anchor text you want. My professional/event bio has made its way to dozens of sites, all of whom link back in the manner I've requested. These are 100% editorially given, white hat links, often from powerful media or event sites.
  • Press releases that get picked up by news media sites will often leave the link anchor text you've 
  • Guest writing / guest blogging for a relevant publication often allows for a link back to your site. If you're creative about the formation of that link, you can insure the anchor text is ideal (or close to ideal).
  • Widgets, badges and embeddable content have fully controllable link anchor text at the time of production - so long as you're not manipulative or appear spammy, the links will point back in the way you've chosen/created.
  • Titling products, pages, posts and essays with the keywords you're seeking means that those who reference the work will be much more likely to use those terms/phrases in the links others create.
  • Requiring specific anchor text via citation when giving away or licensing content is another way to insure you're building optimal link text.
  • Finding friends, family, employees, co-workers, etc. who link to you and reaching out directly to have anchor text modified can result in substantive quantities of optimized anchors.

And, for posterity, I'm going out on a limb here and predicting that exact match anchor text for commercial terms is likely to get considerably increased scrutiny in the next year from Google (see my prior post on how this might be done).


It's true that many times, the basic best practices are the right way to start, and may even be the right solution. However, more organic marketers need to be thinking outside the box, as classic SEO becomes more competitive and dominated by entrenched players.

Please feel free to share your own creative solutions in the comments!


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The Gingerbread White House

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, Dec. 28,  2010
 

The Gingerbread White House

Each year, the White House Pastry Team comes together with other members of the White House staff to work on a favorite holiday tradition: The White House Gingerbread House. Special features of the gingerbread house include a shadow box view of the State Dining Room and marzipan renderings of the vegetable garden and our favorite four-pawed friend, Bo.

Watch the video.

Gingerbread White House

In Case You Missed It

Photos: The Obamas & the Bidens with the Troops on Christmas
See photos of the President and First Lady at Marine Corps Base Hawaii in Kailua and the Vice President along with Dr. Biden at Walter Reed on Christmas.

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Seth's Blog : Folk wisdom and proofiness

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Folk wisdom and proofiness

"Is it feed a cold, starve a fever, or the other way around, I can never remember?"

Does it matter if you get the rhyme wrong? A folk remedy that doesn't work doesn't work whether or not you say it right.

Zig Ziglar used to tell a story about a baseball team on a losing streak. On the road for a doubleheader, the team visited a town that was home to a famous faith healer. While the guys were warming up, the manager disappeared. He came back an hour later with a big handful of bats. "Guys, these bats were blessed and healed by the guru. Our problems are over."

According to the story, the team snapped out of their streak and won a bunch of games. Some people wonder, "did the faith healer really touch the bats, or was the manager making it up?" Huh? Does it matter?

Mass marketers have traditionally abhorred measurement, preferring rules of thumb, casting calls and alchohol instead. Yet, there's no real correlation between how the ad was made and how well it works.

As the number of apparently significant digits in the data available to us goes up (traffic was up .1% yesterday!) we continually seek causation, even if we're looking in the wrong places. As the amount of data we get continues to increase, we need people who can help us turn that data into information.

It's important, I think, to understand when a placebo is helpful and when it's not. We shouldn't look to politicians to tell us whether or not the world is getting warmer (and what's causing it). They're not qualified or motivated to turn the data into information. We also shouldn't look to a fortune teller on the corner to read our x-rays or our blood tests.

Proofiness is a tricky thing. Data is not information, and confusing numbers with truth can help you make some bad decisions.

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luni, 27 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Indiana Bill Would Allow Cities to Declare Bankruptcy; Gary, Lake Station, Georgetown Likely Candidates; Hands Tied in Rhode Island

Posted: 27 Dec 2010 09:01 PM PST

A bill in the Indiana legislature would allow local governments to declare bankruptcy. Given Governor Mitch Daniels is backing this plan, I expect it to pass. Best of all, the bill gives an emergency manager the ability to renegotiate labor contracts, and approve or veto contracts, expenses, loans and hiring.

Please consider Bill would allow Indiana cities to declare bankruptcy
A plan backed by Gov. Mitch Daniels would allow local governments in Indiana to ask for a state takeover and declare bankruptcy if necessary. Daniels says he hopes there won't be many local governments that seek bankruptcy, but says the state needs to have the law clarified and on standby in case it happens.

Republican state Sen. Ed Charbonneau of Valparaiso is sponsoring a bill to outline the procedure. His bill would allow a local government in financial trouble to ask the Indiana Distressed Unit Appeals Board to appoint an "emergency manager" to run the government.

The emergency manager would have the power to cut the budget, renegotiate labor contracts, and approve or veto contracts, expenses, loans and hiring.

The bill states that if the emergency manager can't turn around the local government's finances, the unit would be allowed to seek federal bankruptcy protection.

The State Board of Accounts in recent audits has questioned the abilities of the city governments in Gary and Lake Station to "continue as a going concern" because of continued high city spending despite significantly reduced city revenues because of statewide property tax caps.
I salute this bill and look forward to the bankruptcy of a handful of Indiana cities. Gary has a population of around 100,000 and is Indiana's fifth largest city. Lake Station has a population of about 14,000.

Georgetown, Indiana Headed for Bankruptcy

The Indiana Law Blog reports Southern Indiana town may file for bankruptcy protection
Monday, July 27, 2009
Facing a debt of $1.45 million over a long-delayed sewage plant project, the Floyd County town of Georgetown has taken the first step toward what would be an unprecedented move for an Indiana municipality — filing for bankruptcy protection.

Whether Georgetown could do that, however, is in dispute. State officials say Indiana law doesn't authorize a town to declare bankruptcy.

Georgetown's leaders "have no authority" to declare the town bankrupt, said Brian Bailey, general counsel for the Indiana Department of Local Government Finance.

Bailey cited a 1994 update to the federal bankruptcy code that says a municipality "must be specifically authorized" by state law to be a debtor, and no Indiana law does that. (Kentucky law authorizes its local governments to file for bankruptcy, but none have ever done so.)

Georgetown Town Council President Billy Stewart said there may be no other option.

"There's no way for Georgetown to pay" its debts, he said. "We don't have it."
Look for Georgetown, Indiana population approximately 3,000 to see bankruptcy protection if allowed.

Details of the Bankruptcy Bill

Inquiring minds are reading Law would let cities declare bankruptcy for details about the bill.
State Sen. Ed Charbonneau, R-Valparaiso, is sponsoring Senate Bill 105, which would repurpose the Indiana Distressed Unit Appeals Board from providing property tax cap relief to supervising direct management of a local government.

Gary twice has won DUAB permission to charge the highest property tax rates in the state to bring its city budget into balance.

Under Charbonneau's bill to restructure DUAB, the council and executive of a local government could jointly seek to be designated a "distressed unit" if it meets one of eight financial criteria. Or, a coalition of a government's creditors owed more than 30 percent of the unit's anticipated annual revenue could ask DUAB to declare a local government distressed.

If DUAB agreed the local government were distressed, DUAB would appoint an "emergency manager" with the powers of both the council and executive, who could slash the budget; renegotiate labor contracts; review salaries; approve or veto contracts, expenses, loans and hiring; and audit the books -- all independently of the government's elected officials.

The emergency manager would not be allowed to raise taxes and would be required to work with elected officials to develop a financial plan for the future, according to the legislation.
Hallelujah! Raising taxes to meet untenable union wages and pension benefits has to stop.

Criteria for "distressed" designation (one of eight needed):

  • 1) Default in payment of principal or interest on bonds or notes
  • 2) More than 30 days late on payroll or two consecutive payrolls missed
  • 3) Failed to pay judgment creditors more than 30 days after judgment
  • 4) More than 30 days late any of the following: sending taxes withheld from employees, sending employer or employee contributions to Social Security or Medicare, depositing minimum obligation payment to a pension fund
  • 5) Accumulated a deficit in total government funds of more than 5 percent of current year revenues
  • 6) Seeks renegotiation of payments owed that are more than 30 percent of annual revenues and more than 90 days overdue
  • 7) The state is intercepting local government funds to make required payments
  • 8) Uses interfund loans to support the same fund for two years in a row


Tax Free Does Not Mean Worry Free


The Financial Sense article Muni Bonds: Tax Free Doesn't Mean Worry Free has a list of 26 states (up from 21 in 2007) that currently do not allow bankruptcy.

AlaskaNew Hampshire
DelawareNew Mexico
GeorgiaNorth Dakota
HawaiiOregon
IllinoisRhode Island
IndianaSouth Dakota
IowaTennessee
KansasUtah
MaineVermont
MarylandVirginia
MassachusettsWest Virginia
MississippiWisconsin
NevadaWyoming

The most recent addition to the above list is Rhode Island which just passed a law outlawing bankruptcy after the City of Central Falls disclosed it would seek bankruptcy.

Do the governors that signed such legislation really think problem will go away if the one possible solution is removed? Sheeesh?

Look for Indiana and Michigan to come off the list. In addition, Wisconsin governor-elect has proposed decertification of public unions, so I believe he would be agreeable to local bankruptcies if such a bill was presented to him.

Please see Hardball in Wisconsin; Massive Defeat for Unions in Lame-Duck Session for more about Wisconsin, governor-elect Scott Walker's showdown with state union employees.

Central Falls Prohibited From Bankruptcy

The only thing that makes any sense for Central Fall is bankruptcy, but that option is currently missing. Please consider Receiver to city: Financial ruin near
CENTRAL FALLS — The city's financial problems are so profound that the only way to solve them is through a merger with Pawtucket or a regionalization of city services, the state-appointed receiver said in a report Thursday to the Carcieri administration.

"Central Falls, in my judgment, cannot remain a stand-alone community as it presently is, unless the state wants to subsidize this into the future," said retired Superior Court judge Mark A. Pfeiffer, the man appointed by the state Department of Administration in July to run the city, with elected government officials in advisory roles, after those officials had earlier declared the city insolvent.

The underlying, built-in problems in the city's finances — with sizable operating budget deficits projected well into the future — require significantly changing how municipal employee contracts and retirement benefits are handled under state law, he said.

Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed said underfunded municipal pensions have been the subject of a special Senate study commission, and Central Falls — with a $48-million unfunded pension liability, according to Pfeiffer — would put even more focus on that work.

"This will be a priority for the Senate in the upcoming legislative session," she said. "TheSenate agrees that there is a need for swift but prudent action by the state."

The state is already heavily involved in the city. It took over financing the local school system in the last big state fiscal intervention in 1991 and has spent $604 million on the city's schools since then. Despite that effort, improvement has been difficult: this year, the city's high school was rated one of the six worst-performing ones in the state.

In the short term, Pfeiffer said the city will need about $2.1 million in some form of state support authorized by the General Assembly, a grant or some kind of bond guarantee, to close a deficit in the current budget. Beyond that, he said more substantial changes were needed.

The major problem is the city, with an annual operating budget of about $16 million, is facing about $32 million in promised after-retirement health-insurance costs in addition to the $48 million in pension obligations.

"That's $80 million for a city that has 19,000 citizens, approximately," he said. "That's a huge problem."
No city would merge with Central Falls in a foolish attempt to save it. It would mean their own financial ruin. Furthermore, why should Rhode Island taxpayers in general have to fund Central Fall's pension obligation?

Massive Teacher Absenteeism at Central Falls High School

Check out the morally corrupt Central Falls Teachers union: Central Falls teacher absences still on the rise
Since the school year started Sept. 1, there has not been a single day when all of the 88 teachers at Central Falls High School have shown up for work.

On that first day, two teachers called in sick and a third took a personal day.

And there have been only five days — all in September — when administrators were able to replace all the missing teachers with substitutes.

Last week alone, there were at least 19 teachers out every day, 10 to 13 of whom called in sick each day.

The severity of the problem came to light last week when The Journal reported that more than half of the high school's 840 students didn't receive a grade in one or more classes for the first quarter.

The school's leaders, Deputy Supt. Victor Capellan and co-principals Evelyn Cosme-Jones and Sonn Sam, said 453 students did not receive solid instruction in several classes, and therefore no grade could be given.

Since Nov. 12, there have been at least 20 teachers missing or absent at the high school each Friday. Starting Oct. 21, there were 14 to 19 teachers absent daily for seven straight days. And 453 of the 840 students at Central Falls High School didn't receive enough instruction this fall to earn a grade in at least one class.
Like Detroit, Central Falls is fiscally, morally, and educationally bankrupt. The one and only thing that makes any sense for Central Falls is to declare bankruptcy.

Please see Detroit Mayor Plans to Halt Garbage Pickup, Police Patrols in 20% of City; Expect Bankruptcy, Massive Municipal Bond Turmoil in 2011 for the problems Detroit faces.

I expect Governor Snyder to do the right thing and allow Detroit to file. If it takes legislation, he will get it if he asks. The pending legislation in Indiana appears to be a good model for both Michigan and Rhode Island.

Let's hope Rhode Island governor-elect Lincoln D. Chaffee, an independent, has his head screwed on straight and asks the legislature to allow municipal bankruptcies. It is the only hope for Central Falls.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Unemployment Situation in Pictures; Manufacturing, State and Local, Temporary-Help

Posted: 27 Dec 2010 12:25 PM PST

Inquiring minds are looking at charts of state and local employment, manufacturing, temporary help, and other items in the BLS Current Statistics report.

Please click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Note how local governments were still expanding mid-recession, all the way up till July of 2008. A year later, starting June of 2009, local governments finally got religion and started cutting jobs. Look for this trend to continue into 2011.




In spite of all the whining by states, they have not yet made any significant cuts in employment.



For all the brouhaha about the manufacturing recovery, employment in the manufacturing sector has dropped four consecutive months.



Total nonfarm employment shows the nature of the jobless recovery. Jobs are expanding barely enough to hold the unemployment rate constant, and it has taken a declining participation rate to do that.



Total nonfarm employment picked up nicely early-to-mid 2010 but most of that was part-time work for census data gathering. The net effect is employment growth was overstated through May, then understated the next few months as those workers were let go.



Total private employment has been growing at a reasonable clip, but not in comparison to previous recoveries that averaged 200,000 jobs a month.




26% of Jobs growth in 2010 has been from temporary help services.




Net Private Nonfarm Jobs vs. Temporary Jobs
MonthPrivateTemporaryNet
Total +1,171,000 +307,000+864,000
Average +106,500 +27,900+78,500
November +50,000 +39,500+10,500
October +160,000 +34,700+125,300
September +112,000 +27,300+84,700
August +143,000 +22,500+120,500
July +117,000 -6,700+123,700
June +61,000 +18,600+42,400
May +51,000 +30,400+20,600
April +241,000 +23,300+217,700
March +158,000 +32,300+125,700
February +62,000 +35,900 +26,100
January+16,000+49,200-33,200


The total number of private jobs added in 2010 is 1.17 million. 307,000 of them are from temporary help services. Even including those temporary jobs, the average number of private sector jobs has only been 106,500 a month, not enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

The Federal government continues to expand jobs even as local cutbacks pick up. Overall, government jobs are in contraction as local cutbacks exceed federal hiring.



The above graph is from the October report. Previous graphs from the November report. I still see no driver for jobs. Retail spending for clothes is not a sustainable driver. State and local cutbacks are coming, but that is a very good thing long-term.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Food, Fuel Inflation Hits India; Primary Price Index Up 15%, Credit Expansion Up 23%

Posted: 27 Dec 2010 10:15 AM PST

China is not the only Asian economy that is overheating. Inflation in India is running at a double digit pace as is credit expansion. Please consider Food, fuel prices drive inflation worries
Rising prices in India of fuel and food are reviving worries about inflation and sent swap rates to 26-month highs as expectations grew for more rate increases in Asia's third-largest economy.

India's embattled government is expected to decide next week whether to increase state-set fuel prices as international crude oil hovered near two-year highs, a move that would have a broader inflationary impact than a decision earlier this month by state-run fuel retailers to lift the price of petrol.

In the year to Dec. 11, India's food price index rose 12.13 percent, with the price of onions -- the country's most widely-eaten vegetable -- of especial concern, while the fuel price index climbed 10.74 percent. This compared with 9.46 percent and 10.67 percent respectively in the previous week.

"Inflation is becoming a problem now. We expect the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) to hike rates sooner rather than later. Now we expect 50-75 basis points of rate hike in the next year, most of which should happen in the first half," said Manish Wadhawan, director and head of rates trading at HSBC in Mumbai.

Inflation worries are spreading in Asia, with Singapore on Thursday posting November inflation near a two-year high and Chinese consumer inflation for November at a 28-month high.

"We will certainly do whatever is required to bring down prices of onions," Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar said.

India's primary articles price index was up 15.35 percent in the latest week compared with an annual rise of 13.25 percent a week earlier, data on Thursday showed.

Last week, retailers raised petrol prices -- which were deregulated in June -- by nearly 6 percent.

Any rise above 2 rupees (4.4 cents) a litre in diesel must be approved by a ministerial panel, India's oil secretary told CNBC TV on Thursday.
Whatever It Takes

I have to laugh at statements like this: "We will certainly do whatever is required to bring down prices of onions."

What it takes is a slowing economy including a slowing of credit expansion.

Two or three quarter-point rate hikes will not do it. Nor will price controls. Yet, India's President Pratibha Patil is confident the economy will grow at about 9 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 2011 and would be on a sustained growth path of about 9 to 10 percent in FY12.

India Credit Expansion Up 23%

Please consider Credit-deposit growth gap behind liquidity crunch
The faster growth in bank credit than deposits is behind the present cash crunch, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said. Year-on-year credit growth was 23 per cent till December 3, while deposit growth was only 15 per cent, as compared to RBI's projection of 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, for 2010-11.

The liquidity deficit, indicated by banks' borrowing from the repo tender of RBI, has been over Rs 1 lakh crore on an average since November.

Low government spending, coupled with slack deposit growth and advance tax outflows, has resulted in the crunch.

On Wednesday, banks borrowed a record Rs 1.7 lakh crore from RBI.
Indian Bank targets up to 28% credit growth

Inquiring minds are reading Indian Bank targets up to 28% credit growth
According to a top official working with the Indian Bank, the bank has the plans to target the credit growth to around 28 per cent during the current fiscal year as the demand for the credit this year seems to have risen quite a bit.

"We expect a credit growth of 27-28 per cent this year," the Chennai-based bank's Chairman and Managing Director, T M Bhasin, said.

"RBI has always been judicious and its decision to decrease the statutory liquidity ratio by 1 per cent will definitely infuse more liquidity in the system," he said.
The sustained growth assumptions of India and China at about 10% each are simply not going to happen. Both countries are overheating and there is a not so little constraint called peak oil that will get in the way. Should India maintain its rate of growth, do not expect to see any containment in price inflation. The same holds true for China.

For more on China, please see China Hikes Rates, Ponders Capital Controls to Halt Currency Inflows; Eight Reasons China Faces Hard Landing

India and China are going to overheat and crash, or their economic growth is going to slow dramatically, quite possibly both.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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China Hikes Rates, Ponders Capital Controls to Halt Currency Inflows; Eight Reasons China Faces Hard Landing

Posted: 26 Dec 2010 11:32 PM PST

Inflation is running at a reported 5.1% in China, a figure most believe is on the low side. Nonetheless, China has been loath to hike rates out of fear of more "hot money" flowing in. Something had to give, and it did. The markets forced China's hand.

Please consider China Increases Rates to Counter Highest Inflation in Two Years
China raised interest rates for the second time since mid-October to counter the fastest inflation in more than two years and more moves may follow.

The benchmark one-year lending rate will rise by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and the one-year deposit rate will climb by the same amount to 2.75 percent, effective today, the People's Bank of China said in a one-sentence statement on its website late yesterday.

Premier Wen Jiabao is seeking to slow gains in property values and consumer prices that are making it harder for families to buy homes and pay for food. Bank lending and a wider-than-forecast November trade surplus have pumped more cash into an economy already awash with money.

China is tightening after a record expansion of credit to counter the effects of the world financial crisis. The broadest measure of money supply, M2, has surged by 55 percent over the past two years and outstanding yuan-denominated loans have climbed 60 percent to 47.4 trillion.

Residence-related costs, including charges for water, electricity and rent, jumped 5.8 percent last month from a year earlier, the most in more than two years, and consumer goods prices rose 5.9 percent, the biggest gain since August 2008, according to statistics bureau data.

Policy makers are concerned that raising interest rates could "encourage hot money inflows," Paul Cavey, a Hong Kong- based economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. said. "Raising interest rates has far more implications" than ordering lenders to set aside more of their deposits as reserves, as it may affect the ability of local governments and companies to pay their debts.

State Council researcher Ba Shusong told state television yesterday that the government will step up regulation of capital inflows, without specifying measures that will be taken.

The Ministry of Commerce is stepping up supervision of foreign investment in real estate to crack down on speculation after a 48 percent jump in overseas fund inflows to the industry in the first 11 months of the year, spokesman Yao Jian said on Dec. 15. Policy makers may also allow faster gains in the yuan to help curb inflation from higher prices of imported commodities, according to analysts' forecasts.
China Overheating

China was number 5 on my list of Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011
5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes Coming

China, everyone's favorite promised land, has a hard landing. China will grow at perhaps 5-6% but that is nowhere near as much as China wants, or the world expects. Tightening in China will crack its property bubble and more importantly pressure commodities. The longer China holds off in tightening, the harder the landing.
Capital Controls Coming

Initially, rate hikes will encourage more "hot money" inflows into China. In hopes of preventing those inflows, China has announced more capital controls. It will be interesting to see precisely what those controls will look like.

Currency Sterilization Needed

One thing China should do is sterilize speculative hot money and balance of trade inflows via domestic government bond issuance, hoping to curb money supply growth.

However, it is not as simple as that, because in a fractional-reserve credit system, a net increase in lending itself increases money supply.

Clearly the Chinese central bank is behind the curve. Will China simply restrict lending? Would it even work?

I do not know about the former, but the latter would eventually force a hard landing if China gets serious enough. Actually, there are so many problems that I think a hard landing is coming regardless, and the longer China dallies, the harder it will be.

In the meantime, these paltry rate hikes by China of .25 points each pale in comparison to increases in reported consumer price increases.

Enormous Property Bubbles Including Vacant Cities

It is not "consumer price inflation" that is the big problem. Asset inflation, especially property speculation is rampant.

In case you missed it please consider The ghost towns of China: Amazing satellite images show cities meant to be home to millions lying deserted

Speculation will continue until China gets serious or until the pool of greater fools buying property at absurd prices dries up.

China's Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs

Exacerbating China's myriad of problems, an Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs
In 1998, when Jiang Zemin, then the president, announced plans to bolster higher education, Chinese universities and colleges produced 830,000 graduates a year. Last May, that number was more than six million and rising.

It is a remarkable achievement, yet for a government fixated on stability such figures are also a cause for concern. The economy, despite its robust growth, does not generate enough good professional jobs to absorb the influx of highly educated young adults. And many of them bear the inflated expectations of their parents, who emptied their bank accounts to buy them the good life that a higher education is presumed to guarantee.

"College essentially provided them with nothing," said Zhang Ming, a political scientist and vocal critic of China's education system. "For many young graduates, it's all about survival. If there was ever an economic crisis, they could be a source of instability."

In a kind of cruel reversal, China's old migrant class — uneducated villagers who flocked to factory towns to make goods for export — are now in high demand, with spot labor shortages and tighter government oversight driving up blue-collar wages.

But the supply of those trained in accounting, finance and computer programming now seems limitless, and their value has plunged. Between 2003 and 2009, the average starting salary for migrant laborers grew by nearly 80 percent; during the same period, starting pay for college graduates stayed the same, although their wages actually decreased if inflation is taken into account.

Chinese sociologists have come up with a new term for educated young people who move in search of work like Ms. Liu: the ant tribe. It is a reference to their immense numbers — at least 100,000 in Beijing alone — and to the fact that they often settle into crowded neighborhoods, toiling for wages that would give even low-paid factory workers pause.

"Like ants, they gather in colonies, sometimes underground in basements, and work long and hard," said Zhou Xiaozheng, a sociology professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
Odds for social unrest will mount if China's growth slows. Yet, because of short-term overheating concerns on top of long-term peak oil issues there is no way China can keep growing at the current pace.

Eight Problems Facing China

  • Hot money inflows
  • Huge property bubble
  • Massive increases in money supply, much of it property speculation and building of unneeded capacity
  • Currency manipulation charges from the US and potential trade wars
  • Unsterilized trade imbalances fuel inflation
  • Slowing Europe
  • Dearth of Jobs for new graduates
  • Potential social unrest

Case For Hard Landing

Risks are enormously skewed to the downside, so much so that the odds China avoids a hard landing are not good. China is far more exposed to a slowdown in Europe than the US and the popping of China's property bubble will extract a huge toll.

Those plowing into commodities, foreign currencies, and equities (especially foreign equities), fail to consider those risks.

Moreover, given that much of China's growth is overheating and malinvestment, it is not even clear the Renminbi is undervalued.

For a look at India, please consider Food, Fuel Inflation Hits India; Primary Price Index Up 15%, Credit Expansion Up 23%

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List