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miercuri, 12 ianuarie 2011

Remembering the Victims in Tucson

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2011

Remembering the Victims in Tucson

Today the President and the First Lady will travel to Tucson, Arizona to attend a memorial service for the victims of the tragic mass shooting last Saturday. President will deliver remarks in support and remembrance of the victims and those still fighting for their lives. You can listen to the memorial service on WhiteHouse.gov/live starting at 8 p.m. EST.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama talks on the phone with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia during a call in the Oval Office, Jan. 11, 2011. John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, is at right. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

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How to get ready for Christmas NOW

Posted: 11 Jan 2011 07:36 AM PST

Christmas gift
Image credit: Flickr

Despite a tough economic backdrop and widespread fears over delivery times, this was another season of growth for UK online retail. It may seem a little early to be thinking about Christmas again already, but given that careful planning is often hailed as the key to success, what can you start doing now to prepare for next Christmas?

In another bumper year for web businesses, more Britons spent more online than ever before. In fact, a study commissioned by Tealeaf showed that 44% of the country's web-enabled adults did some of their Christmas shopping online. And if recession and a looming year of cuts weren't enough to dampen online Christmas shopping growth, then next year is also likely to break a few records.

This means that all consumer-facing online retailers need to ensure that their websites are ready in time for the busy festive season.

The need for a streamline buying process was highlighted by the Tealeaf research, which showed that as many as 45% of respondents said they'd encountered difficulties with their shopping. Almost half said they wouldn't return to a shop where they'd had problems, and one in 10 said they had criticised retailers on social networks.

With that in mind, how can you ensure next Christmas goes without a hitch?

Start planning your festive marketing straight away

If you're starting to wonder about your Christmas marketing in November, you've left it too late to do a good job.

Fantastic festive viral campaigns, targeted advertising and meticulously executed email marketing drops aren't thrown together in a few days or even a few weeks.

Start brainstorming your approach now and have a firm idea in place by summer. You then have months to plan it and stage it well. On top of that, you'll save yourself a horrendous rush in the final few months, and you'll cut down on hours of expensive overtime.

Protect your Christmas budget

Just as every family is urged to save a little each month to ensure they don't run into debt in December, your business should be spending a little less each month to make sure it has extra marketing budget to spare at Christmas.

That way you can really work platforms like paid search advertising and drive more festive business to your online shop.

Delivering a reliable and efficient service at Christmas can win you long-term customers, so it's well worth it.

Offer Christmas discounts throughout the year

Rewarding customers for their loyalty is always a good idea, and pledging to give them a Christmas discount for their shopping earlier in the year can be great.

Not only will you give your customer that warm feeling they get when they know they're being rewarded, but it will also boost your festive sales.

You can even email the shopper closer to the time to remind them of the discount available, putting your online store at the forefront of their minds.

Start building a gift finder

If you consider yourself to be rubbish at Christmas shopping, the online gift finder is your friend. But an effective gift-finding tool takes time to build and test.

Start planning and budgeting for it now, so that you can have it up and running by October. That should allow you to set it live just as the earlybirds start Christmas shopping.

Examine your customer journey

This is good advice generally, but it will help your Christmas shopping figures.

Comb through your customer journey to check for barriers to sale and to ensure your clients enjoy an easy shopping experience.

Rid your site of unnecessary clicks; each one is a barrier to purchase, increasing your chances of shopping cart abandonment. Ensure your search functions are performing as expected.

One of the best ways to improve your customer journey is to ask your customers, perhaps offering a prize draw as an incentive to complete a survey. Very often a website's designers can be simply too close to the project to view it objectively.

Customers will have no qualms about putting you right!

Keep sales in mind too

It used to be that the sales began on Boxing Day, but for the online retailer, the sales begin as soon as it's too late to deliver in time for Christmas.

For most businesses that's December 23rd or even earlier. With that in mind, when planning your Christmas campaign, don't forget to give some thought to the sales frenzy that follows it.

You'll need to work on your marketing campaign for that in advance too.

Have staff working Christmas Day

It's a pain and no one wants to ask their staff to work over Christmas, but you need to have someone behind the scenes just in case.

According to eDigital Research, 86% of UK consumers went online over Christmas Day and Boxing Day in 2010, and many of them did so to take early advantage of the sales.

Put plans in place now to have your IT teams working over those days, to ensure your website runs smoothly no matter what traffic you face.

Larger stores may also want to have a skeleton customer services team on call, just in case there are any problems. Having a ready response to an issue can turn a negative customer experience into a positive one.

Start making plans now and your staff may be more willing to work the bank holidays. You could even offer them some extra holiday over the year to make up for losing a few hours on Christmas Day.

Seth's Blog : Obedience and the GPS

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Obedience and the GPS

My Garmin gave me a route to the airport, but I had a hunch it was mistaken. So I went my way.

As I turned left instead of right, I heard her voice hectoring me, beseeching me to go right.

And I confess, I felt terrible. I was disobeying. Not following instructions.

If it's gotten to the point where we are uncomfortable disobeying a 3 inch by 4 inch touchscreen, then you know we've been brainwashed. It's actually okay (in fact, quite possibly productive) to call out the Garmins, the bosses and the influencers in your life, and ignore them all you like.

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marți, 11 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Looking Beyond Portugal; Bundesbank President Says "Optimism Seems Premature"; Polish 10-Year Yields Hit 6.18%, Highest in 16 Months
Budgetary Delusions: Federal Deficit Charts from CBO Budget Projections
"World Comes Together to Save the Euro"; Japan Officially Joins the Battle

Looking Beyond Portugal; Bundesbank President Says "Optimism Seems Premature"; Polish 10-Year Yields Hit 6.18%, Highest in 16 Months

Posted: 11 Jan 2011 05:54 PM PST

Portugal is the recent flashpoint, but Spain and Belgium are on deck. Note too that sovereign spreads in Ireland and Greece are at record highs in spite of the alleged bailouts.

In response to the clearly not-contained crisis, Germany is considering expanding the bailout fund from 750 billion-euro ($966 billion) by as much as 25%. Meanwhile, it's time to look beyond Portugal to Belgium and Italy, and of course Spain.

Why stop there? Interest rates are soaring in European countries outside the Eurozone, notably Poland.

Looking Beyond Portugal

The Financial Times says Europe must look beyond Portugal.

Like the rival warring sides on a battlefield, European policymakers and financial markets left each other alone over the Christmas holiday. The new year, sadly, holds little prospect that peace will soon break out in Europe's sovereign debt crisis. Eurozone leaders must ensure that 2011 does not become a repeat – only worse – of 2010.

The imminent flashpoint is Portugal. Long mentioned in the same breath as Greece and Ireland – which have both accepted rescue packages from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund – Portugal has now taken their place as the most exposed eurozone state still reliant on market funding. The yield on 10-year Portuguese sovereign debt remains near euro-era highs, above 7 per cent. There are rumours of German pressure – denied by Berlin and Lisbon alike – for Portugal to take money from the European financial stability facility.

Portugal's problem is similar to Spain's. Stagnant productivity alleviated with excessive private sector borrowing resulted in a decade of huge current account deficits that were squandered instead of assisting reforms to increase growth. But private debts quickly turn into public ones when the alternative is a depression brought on by a private funding drought.

The costs of the financial crisis are being born by everyone from citizens to shareholders – with one exception: senior creditors to private banks, treated as sacrosanct. The sovereign crisis will not end until this false religion is unmasked. That means Europe's leaders must open a new front. If they want financial peace, they must prepare for war.

Bundesbank President Says "Optimism Seems Premature"

Please consider Weber Says 'Premature' to Be Optimistic on Containing Crisis

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said it's too soon to assume Europe's debt crisis has been contained as the ECB steps up its purchases of government bonds to ease market tensions.

"The optimism of some observers seems premature to me," Weber, who heads Germany's Bundesbank, said in a speech in Frankfurt late yesterday. "There are several good reasons to look into 2011 with cautious optimism, not least the economic outlook. At the same time there remain -- also in Germany -- important challenges in terms of cleaning up the financial system and getting state finances in order."

Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds rose yesterday as traders said the ECB bought the assets of the euro region's most indebted nations amid mounting concern Portugal will be forced to seek a bailout. Portugal auctions 2014 and 2020 bonds today. The turmoil has prompted calls for Germany to soften its opposition to expanding the region's 750 billion-euro ($966 billion) rescue facility.

"The outlook for 2011 depends on the extent to which the right lessons are drawn from the crisis," Weber said. "The responsibility for the debt crisis in the euro area lies primarily with fiscal policy, not with the financial markets. The affected countries must themselves restore the confidence that's been lost."

The ECB purchased Portuguese debt yesterday, said two traders with knowledge of the transactions, who asked not to be identified because the deals are confidential. A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment. Portuguese 10-year yields fell 12 basis points to 7.08 percent.

Polish 10-Year Yields Hit 6.18%, Highest in 16 Months

Bloomberg reports Poland Faces Highest Yields in 16 Months on Cuts to Pensions

The Finance Ministry faces yields of at least 6.18 percent on 10-year bonds, the most since an auction in May 2009, according to analysts at PKO Bank Polski SA, ING Bank Slaski SA, Bank Handlowy SA and data compiled by Bloomberg. Twenty-year debt may yield the most since an auction in September 2009.

Yields on 10-year Polish bonds climbed 17 basis points to 6.227 percent this month after the government said on Dec. 30 it plans to lower contributions to private pension funds, which as of November were the third-biggest holders of government debt, according to Finance Ministry data. The auction comes the same day as an offering of 10-year bonds from Portugal, the first from any of the euro region's most indebted countries this year.

"Market sentiment has worsened as there is a lot of uncertainty whether Portugal will get a bailout," Rafal Benecki, an economist at ING Bank Slaski, said by phone from Warsaw. "The long-end is risky because that's where the pension funds were calling the shots and we don't know what the market will look like after the reform takes effect."

The extra yield investors demand to hold Polish 10-year debt in zloty over German bunds rose to 335 basis points this week, the highest since Nov. 30. The cost of insuring European sovereign debt climbed to a record on concern backstopping the region's banks will overwhelm government finances. Portugal's Prime Minister Jose Socrates said yesterday his country doesn't need a bailout from the European Union and its 2010 budget deficit will be lower than forecast.

Crisis Will Escalate Until Haircuts Taken

This is not a matter of looking beyond Portugal, but rather of looking at the reason for the crisis itself: debts that cannot possibly be paid back. The market understands Greece and Ireland will default, otherwise yields and credit default swaps would not be at or near record levels.

Attempts to bailout country after country is itself destabilizing. Every increase in the bailout fund and every purchase by the ECB brings the crisis closer to the core - France and Germany. This is why Axel Weber is correct in voting against ECB bond purchases and Trichet is wrong.

Sovereign debt purchases do nothing but mask over the problem while loading up the ECB's balance sheet with garbage. In the end, what cannot be paid back won't.

In the meantime, Trichet has gone against everything he has ever stood for. His short-term effort to "save the euro" are the very things that may cause the Eurozone to break apart or the Euro to collapse long-term.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Budgetary Delusions: Federal Deficit Charts from CBO Budget Projections

Posted: 11 Jan 2011 09:06 AM PST

Can the budget deficit be solved by cutting earmarks? How about cutting 100% of all federal non-defense discretionary expenditures?

That is the question reader "David" asked and answered in the following email.

Hello Mish

Here is a chart I created using budget projections from the CBO. The main point is from now until 2020, we could eliminate 100% of all federal non-defense discretionary expenditures and still run a deficit.

I went back to the data after getting into one too many arguments with people who claim that we can solve our budgetary problems by eliminating government "waste" - the programs that study the sex lives of jellyfish and that sort of thing - without real cuts in entitlement programs.

Unless the Budget Fairy waves her magic wand, it's not going to happen.

David

US Federal Revenues and Expenditures 2000-2020

click on chart for sharper image

Data for the projections in the above chart is from a link found at the bottom right hand corner of the CBO Report Analysis of the President's 2011 Budget. The header says Additional Info "Budget Projections". Click on the link that says "data" to download an Excel spreadsheet.

Data for 2009 and before came from the CBO report Budget and Economic Information. There is a link on the right about halfway down that says "Monthly Reviews and Historical Data." Click on the "Excel" link to download a spreadsheet.

Entitlement Spending Growth

click on chart for sharper image

Both charts are from David who posts on the No Money No Worries blog.

Inquiring minds may wish to check it out.

Thanks David.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

"World Comes Together to Save the Euro"; Japan Officially Joins the Battle

Posted: 11 Jan 2011 12:08 AM PST

At long last, and after decades of trying, Japan may have found a way to weaken its currency: buy European bonds. The irony is that is not Japan's intent. The non-plan to weaken the Yen could conceivably "work" if done in size, although I rather doubt Japan commits that much. Regardless, it sure won't do a damn thing to "Save the Euro".

Please consider Japan Joins China in Assisting Debt-Crisis-Hit Europe

Japan plans to buy bonds issued by Europe's financial-aid funds, its finance minister said, joining China in assisting the region as it battles against a debt crisis that prompted bailouts of Ireland and Greece.

"There is a plan for the euro zone to jointly issue a large amount of bonds late this month to raise funds to assist Ireland," Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said at a news conference in Tokyo today. "It's appropriate for Japan to make a contribution as a leading nation to increase trust in the deal. We want to buy more than 20 percent."

The euro gained against the yen as the statements of support showed that the country with the world's second-largest foreign-exchange reserves, after China, may help stem the risk of the crisis spreading. Portugal's borrowing costs jumped last week as concern deepened that nation may be unable to avoid tapping the European Union's rescue fund.

"This signals that the world is coming together" to save Europe, said Noriaki Matsuoka, an economist at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. "But it's unlikely the euro will maintain its current strength. It's unclear whether the market will be able absorb all the bonds being issued by the problematic euro-zone nations."

Japan will use its foreign-exchange reserves to buy more than a fifth of bonds to be issued later in January by the European Financial Stability Facility, Noda said. Japan's reserves total $1.096 trillion, the government said today. That compared with China's $2.648 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"I think we cannot rule out the possibility that the Japanese government" may need to shift part of its reserves to euros from U.S. dollars to buy the bonds, Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan rates and foreign exchange research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, said in a note to clients today.

"Japan's finally contributing to the stabilization of the global financial system," said Hiroshi Miyazaki, chief economist at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. "This is good news for the euro and it's good news for the global financial system. Since Japan has a current-account surplus, in some ways it has a responsibility to help those with a capital shortage."

A "Come Together" Tribute

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Sarah Jones and me

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Sarah Jones and me

Just announced: Tony award winner Sarah Jones and her many invented friends are going to interview (for lack of a better term) me on-stage at the Nuyorican in New York City on January 18th. There are just a few tickets available.

Sarah is a genius and an artist and a hero of mine. I'm thrilled to be asked. It'll certainly not be what you expect.

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SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

What's the Future of Mobile Search and SEO?

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 04:29 PM PST

Posted by randfish

There's no doubt that mobile and, by extension, local search is hot. Technology pundits have been declaring every year since 2005 "The Year of Mobile" - that magical moment when everyone suddenly starts using their mobile device for more than just playing games, texting, calling friends, checking email, downloading/using apps and occasionally browsing the web and... I don't know... browses the web more?

If I sound a bit cynical on the topic of mobile it's not out of a disbelief in the power of mobile devices or the acceleration of their influence on our technological connectedness. It's because I think we're, to a large extent, already there. The smartphone has won our hearts and minds, and this year, it will finally be more popular than the feature phone:

Smartphone Penetration Rate

Nearly half of us already have iPhones, Blackberries, Androids or similar in our pockets when we're on the proverbial "go." But search - the process, the intent, the results - just isn't that different on mobile devices vs. laptops and desktops.

Yes, mobile searchers are more likely to perform local searches than other varieties, but I actually believe this trend may be overblown. A substantive portion of searches performed from a laptop/desktop have local intent as well. As the mobile experience gets ever closer to mimicing that of the laptop/desktop, I suspect we'll be searching on our mobiles in a remarkably similar fashion to how we search everywhere else. In fact, the top mobile searches of 2010 are similar (and surprisingly non-local) to the top general searches of the year.

Increased speed, functionality, screen size, resolution, readability, battery life, multimedia capacity, etc. don't sound like features that make the mobile experience unique; they strike me as moving toward feature parity.

Mobile vs. Computer CTRs

Research from Doubleclick, comparing search on mobile devices w/ full browsers vs. computers strongly suggests that we're moving towards search parity, too. Queries are similar, clicks are similar, click-through-rate is similar, even conversion rate is getting close (though mobile is still a much more research-based experience, with a tough-to-measure influence of offline conversions).

This doesn't mean you can or should ignore mobile/local as a powerful organic marketing channel, but it does mean that you don't need to be building separate mobile sites or separate mobile experiences. Unless your site/content is seriously challenging for mobile users, even those with fast, impressive devices, you should worry more about other marketing avenues.

The big trends I see in mobile search are:

A lot more queries - mobile search is growing faster than traditional search and that bodes well for search marketers.
A single set of SERPs - I searched for a good 20 minutes on my laptop and Android phone without finding a query where the web results are in a different order (both are location-aware to "Seattle, WA")
A chance to make your mobile-focus known - Yelp does a great job with their overlay on mobile devices encouraging searchers to download their app (though some have complained it gets annoying having to say "no" every time if you don't want it).
Little need for a separate mobile site - Mobile copies of websites seem to me to be more likely to cause duplicate content issues, technical challenges, waste engineering resources and draw away attention from real mobile opportunities than to earn slightly higher rankings in mobile searches. Until/unless things change dramatically, I can't, in good conscience, recommend this practice (unless your regular site is absolutely unusable on a mobile device).
Definite need for a separate mobile ad strategy - Unlike SEO, the paid search results can and do differ dramatically on mobile devices. CPC is generally lower, as are conversion rates, though the latter may be on an upward trend (especially if I'm right about device convergence)
Apps are still beloved - I don't know if the long term future of mobile will continue to focus on apps, but for now, it's a huge part of what differentiates the device. It's certainly a great way to "contain" users in your brand and provide a more tailored experience, and for those who can make it work effectively, the effect can be great.
Geography matters - mobile and traditional search are both getting more and more biased by geography. My opinion is that Google currently sucks at this (I have yet to find a search I like better with location-biasing than without, maps/places not withstanding), but they certainly won't be giving up. As a result, if you can tailor your content and your marketing to effectively serve and be seen as local, you can seriously benefit.

Looking forward to your thoughts about mobile search and the future of mobile SEO. I continually get the sense that I'm an anomaly in how I view the mobile web and its impact on search, so I'm always interested to hear what others think on the topic.

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miercuri, 12 ianuarie 2011

Remembering the Victims in Tucson

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Seth's Blog : Obedience and the GPS

Obedience and the GPS

More Recent Articles

marți, 11 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Sarah Jones and me

Sarah Jones and me

More Recent Articles

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

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miercuri, 12 ianuarie 2011

More Recent Articles

marți, 11 ianuarie 2011

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