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[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
That's one of the most important decisions you'll make today.
How much time and effort should be spent on intake, on inbound messages, on absorbing data...
and how much time and effort should be invested in output, in creating something new.
There used to be a significant limit on available intake. Once you read all the books in the college library on your topic, it was time to start writing.
Now that the availability of opinions, expertise and email is infinite, I think the last part of that sentence is the most important:
Time to start writing.
Or whatever it is you're not doing, merely planning on doing.
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Posted: 30 Jan 2011 08:46 PM PST Business in Egypt has ground to a halt. Food and consumer goods stack up in ports. Gas stations have not had deliveries for days and supplies dwindle. Simple economic theory suggests prices will soar and they have. After an initial lukewarm reception when he first returned to Egypt, Nobel laureate and opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei has picked up some much-needed support from the Muslim Brotherhood. That support creates a somewhat united secular-religious opposition to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. An emboldened ElBaradei is now openly critical of the Obama administration. "It's better for President Obama not to appear that he is the last one to say to President Mubarak, it's time for you to go," Dr. ElBaradei said. ElBaradei Begins to Unify Opposition The New York Times reports Opposition Rallies to ElBaradei as Military Reinforces in Cairo Egypt's powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the secular opposition banded together Sunday around a prominent government critic to negotiate for forces seeking the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, as the army struggled to hold a capital seized by fears of chaos and buoyed by euphoria that three decades of Mr. Mubarak's rule may be coming to an end.Ports Shut Down, Food Prices Soar, Business Grinds to a Halt The internet is shut down, so are cell phones, and so are ports. Goods stack up at docks, and supplies of fuel are at critical levels. After six days of riots, the Political Crisis Now Has Serious Economic Repercussions. For four days now, containers arriving on ships have been stacking up at Egypt's largest port, shipping company employees and truck drivers here said. With distribution networks barely functioning and the Internet down since Thursday night, much of business in Egypt has nearly ground to a halt.Potential Runs on Banks Banks are now shut down as is the stock market. However, Egypt's Banks Risk Deposit Run when they do open. Egypt's banks may risk a surge in customer withdrawals when they open for business, placing them among companies worst hit by the nationwide uprising against President Hosni Mubarak.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 30 Jan 2011 05:22 PM PST Egypt is flying apart, China and India are both overheating, and there has been no financial reform that will accomplish anything; nonetheless, it's party time in Davos. One analyst with not enough clearance to party had a different message, so did Bloomberg columnist Simon Johnson. Otherwise it was party on dudes. Please consider Lonely Analyst Warns of 2015 Bank Crisis Amid 'Upbeat' Davos As politicians, executives and financiers networked at parties and panels last week in Davos, Switzerland, Barrie Wilkinson was in a nearby hotel, warning that a 2015 financial catastrophe may be looming.Bloomberg Columnist Terrified "I came into this dinner somewhat pessimistic and worried about the assignment we are here to discuss," Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management and a Bloomberg News columnist, said halfway through the evening. "I am now terrified. There is an incipient sovereign crisis here mixed in with the bank crisis."It's Party Time So much for pessimism, let's consider some party goers. Financiers at Davos this year weren't talking much about future returns on equity or potential bubbles. Instead they were holding parties and meeting clients. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, 54, hosted guests including Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and Dell Inc. founder Michael Dell, 45, at a reception one night. He was out late the next night with hedge- fund manager Louis Bacon, 54, and other guests at a party hosted by Google Inc.Put me in the party pooper column with Barrie Wilkinson and Simon Johnson. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
U.S. to Evacuate Americans From Egypt Posted: 30 Jan 2011 09:50 AM PST Many US citizens have been trapped in Egypt hoping to get to any other country for connecting flights. Unfortunately, flights out of Egypt have ground to a halt. In response, the New York Times reports U.S. to Evacuate Americans The Egyptian military reinforced parts of the capital on Sunday with tanks, jets and helicopters as tens of thousands of protesters flooded central Cairo for the sixth day, defying yet again government orders of a nationwide curfew.Note: The NYT headline of "U.S. to Evacuate Americans From Egypt" does not match the story. It appears, the story will follow. Here is a link to the latest New York Times Headlines. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Oil ETF Call Trades Soar to Record, Crude Futures Back Near Highs; What Will Next Week Bring? Posted: 30 Jan 2011 12:03 AM PST In light of firebombings, riots, and anarchy in Egypt, coupled with social unrest in Yemen, Jordan, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia, call options of those betting on higher oil prices soared to seven times normal activity on Friday. This weekend we saw the closing of Egyptian banks and the announced closing of Egyptian stock markets on Monday. However, it is hard to know what will happen next week. To help understanding the possibilities, please consider this analysis of Friday's crude action. Bloomberg reports Oil ETF Call Trades Soar to Record Amid Egypt Unrest Trading of bullish options on an exchange-traded fund tracking crude futures soared to a record as oil surged the most since September 2009 after unrest in Egypt raised concern that protests would spread to major oil- producing parts of the Middle East.Crude 15 Minute Chart click on chart for sharper image Hedging Plays Push Crude Prices Higher I was watching crude futures Friday morning (3:00AM Central) and the futures were essentially flat. Friday morning, however, as oil future call buying began, followed by equity call buying on OIL ETFs, oil shot up nearly $4. What happened is options sellers (the market makers on the other side of those trades), cannot risk being naked short those oil calls and had to hedge by buying futures. To hedge those short calls, the market makers bought crude futures. This delta hedging activity drove up the price of oil this morning as everyone plowed into the "oil might go to the moon" trade. No one wanted to be naked short over the weekend. (In a similar fashion, I do not believe JPM is naked short silver futures either, but I wish they would come out and prove it). If nothing happens over the weekend (which so far appears to be a disproved idea already), oil futures could easily sink next week as the trade unwinds. On the other hand, should unrest spring up in Iran or expand in Saudi Arabia crude prices could soar. Given that a collapse of the Egyptian government seems likely, and unrest in other areas picking up, if crude prices cannot break north here, then look out below. A short or intermediate-term top is likely in. For more on the crisis in Egypt, please see ... Egyptian Police Disappear in Widespread Chaos, Vigilantes Defend Homes; Egypt Video With a Message "We Will Never be Silenced!" Egypt Closes Banks, Stock Market; Protests Spread to Saudi Arabia, Jordan; Saudi King Backs Mubarak; Reflections on Misguided US Policy Mubarak's Acts of Cowardice; Obama Calls Mubarak for 30-Minutes; Cell Service, Internet Total Shutdown; Anarchy in Cairo; How Long can Mubarak Last? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Yes, you shouldn't text while driving, or talk on the cell phone, or argue with your dog or drive blindfolded. It's an idiot move, one that often leads to death (yours or someone else's).
I don't think you should text while working, either. Or use social networking software of any kind for that matter. And you probably shouldn't eat crunchy chips, either.
I don't think there's anything wrong with doing all that at work (in moderation). But not while you're working. Not if working is that the act that leads to the scarce output, the hard stuff, the creative uniqueness they actually pay you for.
You're competing against people in a state of flow, people who are truly committed, people who care deeply about the outcome. You can't merely wing it and expect to keep up with them. Setting aside all the safety valves and pleasant distractions is the first way to send yourself the message that you're playing for keeps. After all, if you sit for an hour and do exactly nothing, not one thing, you'll be ashamed of yourself. But if you waste that hour updating, pinging, being pinged and crunching, well, hey, at least you stayed in touch.
Raise the stakes.
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Posted: 29 Jan 2011 08:14 PM PST Here is another video to consider, with video credit to Tamer Shaaban. It has close to 400,000 views when I saw it. I like one protester's message in the video ... "We will not be silenced. Whether you are a Christian, whether you are a Muslim, whether you are an atheist, you will demand your goddamn rights, and we will have our rights one way or the other! We will never be silenced! If the embed above does not play, here is a link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvBJMzmSZI&sns=fb Egyptian Police Disappear in Widespread Chaos, Looting Spreads,Vigilantes Defend Homes Please consider Egypt vigilantes defend homes as police disappear Egyptians armed with guns, sticks, and blades have formed vigilante groups to defend their homes from looters after police disappeared from the streets following days of violent protests.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 29 Jan 2011 02:42 PM PST One sure way to get people fired up is to shut down the stock market and all the banks, thereby denying citizens access to their money. Yet, that is exactly the desperate course of action chosen by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Protests have now spread to Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. So far however, the protests in Saudi Arabia are of a peaceful nature, mostly related to government response to flooding. Recent history suggests that may change at any moment into something far more significant. In a move that can easily backfire, the Saudi king defended Mubarak and offered support. Meanwhile, in Jordan, the pace of protests have now picked up as opposition supporters have held rallies in Amman and called for the resignation of Jordan's prime minister. Egyptian Bourse, Banks to Close Bloomberg reports Egyptian Bourse, Banks to Close Tomorrow on Unrest The Egyptian bourse will be closed tomorrow after thousands of protestors congregated in central Cairo for a fifth day and President Hosni Mubarak ignored demands to resign. Banks will also be shut, State TV said.Domino Effect Bloomberg reports Saudi Stocks Decline Most Since May as Egyptians Defy Curfew Saudi Arabian shares retreated the most since May on concern political unrest could spread in the Middle East after Egyptian protesters clashed with police and the North African country's president refused to resign.Mubarak appoints leaders as protests rage MarketWatch reports Mubarak appoints leaders as protests rage Mubarak appointed his intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, vice president and named former civil aviation minister Ahmed Shafik prime minister. Shafik was charged with setting up a new government.Protests Call for Ouster of Jordanian Prime Minister Anti-government action in Jordan picked up and Jordanian Protesters Say Prime Minister Must Go Taking their cue from Tunisia and Egypt, an estimated 3,000 Jordanians marched through the streets after Friday prayers, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai and calling for political and economic reforms.Peaceful Protests in Saudi Arabia In Saudi Arabia, Dozens of protesters arrested in Jeddah Dozens of protesters have been arrested in Saudi Arabia's second biggest city after they protested against the weaknesses of infrastructure of Jeddah.Given infrastructure is this bad, I have a simple question: What the hell is Saudi Arabia doing with all the oil money it receives? I also have an answer: It is going into the pockets of billionaire sheiks who have more money than they possibly know what to do with. The same could be said for multi-billionaires everywhere. Saudi Protest Video Saudi king vows support for Mubarak Inquiring minds are likely pondering the wisdom of this action: Saudi king vows support for Mubarak Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah ensures Mohamed Hosni Mubarak of his support amid nationwide protests against the Egyptian president's three-decade-long rule.There is widespread approval among Arabs for the ouster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Offering support to someone who is clearly despised does not seem like a prudent move to me. Reflections on Decades of Misguided US Policy President Obama is attempting to play this from both sides as best he can. For more details on his phone conversations with Mubarak, please consider
It's important to note that I am not talking about mistakes in current US policy but rather misguided policy decisions over the decades.
Contrast that that with our actions in Tunisia. We did not spend a dime, nor did our intelligence efforts even see it coming. Yet, in Tunisia, a protest by the people overthrew overthrew Tunisian strongman Zine el Abidine ben Ali. Wall of Fear Comes Down The La Times reports Fearless protesters challenge regimes around Middle East Reporting from Tunis, Tunisia — A wall of fear has come down.War of the Future How much money did the US spend on misguided missile programs and misguided missile defense systems, only to be defeated by a group of hijackers with razor blades? Is there more of a threat from a suitcase bomb or a missile? How much money do we waste keeping troops in 140 countries where they are mostly not wanted? Please remember Bin Laden's primary objection to the US was that US troops were on sacred Arab soil. So why do we do it? What has it brought us but misery? We have caused countless trillions of dollars of destruction in Iraq, and in Afghanistan. Sadly, the war in Afghanistan is no more winnable than the War in Vietnam. Quiet revolutions by the people are the war of the future, and the only kind of war that makes any sense. Please note that Tunisia did not cost US taxpayers a dime. We should not have wasted a dime to get rid of Hussein either. Iraq was not a threat to the US. Simply put, it was a matter for the Iraqi people to settle, not us. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Creative Art of Bullish Excuses: Stock Market Still "Good to Go"; Hook Has Been Set Posted: 29 Jan 2011 11:06 AM PST While reading more on the Egyptian riots in a Bloomberg article, I found this nice quip on global equity prices. European stocks retreated this week as escalating protests in Egypt and an unexpected drop in the U.K.'s gross domestic product offset accelerating U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter.Creative Art of Bullish Excuses That statement from Simon Maughan is just the kind of "BS" I talked about in Market Participants "Learn the Wrong Lesson" from Bernanke; Conflicts of Interest in "Stay the Course" Advice. It is more than a stretch to suggest global equities will be fine on the basis of the US economy alone, especially when there should be huge concerns about the imbalanced, stimulus-fed US economy and the unbalanced global economy in general, especially overheating in India and China, and property bubbles in the UK, China, and Australia. Moreover, Maughan did not mention valuation, or risks. He was simply looking for any excuse to say "buy stocks". I do not know whether the stock market goes up or down from here, but his statement is absurd from many angles, especially valuation. Hook Has Been Set If stocks do head down now, a hook has been set. That "hook" is blaming this all on Egypt, with a message "buy the dip". One of these "quick, little dips" will be neither quick, nor little. Whether this is the one, remains to be seen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 29 Jan 2011 01:23 AM PST The situation in Egypt has gone from bad to worse. Cairo is in a state of near-anarchy and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's cowardly disruptions to the internet and cell phones have made things worse. Egyptian citizens unable to get news on the internet or cell phones have only one place to get it now, the street. President Obama called Mubarak in a 30-minute phone call. Obama's message was "Ultimately, the future of Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian people." If that was a hint, Mubarak did not get it. Instead, Cairo is in flames as protesters have turned more defiant. Mubarak Orders Crackdown, With Revolt Sweeping Egypt The New York Times reports Mubarak Orders Crackdown, With Revolt Sweeping Egypt With police stations and the governing party's headquarters in flames, and much of this crucial Middle Eastern nation in open revolt, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt deployed the nation's military and imposed a near-total blackout on communications to save his authoritarian government of nearly 30 years.Cairo in Near-Anarchy The Washington Post reports Cairo in near-anarchy as protesters push to oust president The Egyptian capital descended into near anarchy Friday night, as the government sent riot police, and then the army, to quell protests by tens of thousands of demonstrators determined to push President Hosni Mubarak from office.The Washington Post has a stunning set of 57 Egypt Riot Images, some of the best I have seen yet. Here are a few of them. Jan. 29, 2011 In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, demonstrators climb up armored vehicles at Square Tahrir in Cairo, Egypt early Saturday. Cai Yang / AP A protester burns a picture of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak during clashes in Cairo on Jan. 28, 2011. Amr Abdallah Dalsh / Reuters Egyptian protesters face anti-riot policemen in Cairo on Friday, Jan. 28, 2011. The riots escalated throughout the day. Victoria Hazou / AP Army tanks line up in Tahrir Square in Cairo. Peter Macdiarmid / Getty Images Thousands of protesters gather in Tahrir Square despite a curfew. Peter Macdiarmid / Getty Images Egypt Cuts Off Most Internet and Cell Service The New York Times reports Egypt Cuts Off Most Internet and Cell Service Autocratic governments often limit phone and Internet access in tense times. But the Internet has never faced anything like what happened in Egypt on Friday, when the government of a country with 80 million people and a modernizing economy cut off nearly all access to the network and shut down cellphone service.Obama Calls Mubarak, Talks 30-Minutes Bloomberg reports Obama Tells Mubarak He Must Stick to Pledge of Egyptian Reforms President Barack Obama told Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last night he must live up to promises he made about political, social and economic reforms following the fourth day of anti-government demonstrations across Egypt.Mubarak's Acts of Cowardice Shutting down the internet is an act of cowardice. Firing all your ministers while pledging reform is an act of cowardice. So is ordering Vodafone to shut down cell phone usage. Sending tanks into the street is certainly an act of cowardice. Not only are those acts of cowardice, they have backfired. People are in open defiance of curfews. After all, they have no way to get the news but see it themselves in the streets. By the way what is a tank supposed to do anyway? Is it really going to fire on the people? Check out that first image again. Protesters are crawling all over those tanks and armored vehicles. As I see it, the only thing tanks can possibly do is get people stirred up. Yet, the only thing holding Mubarak's corrupt regime together is the military. Mubarak came up from the military so there is some loyalty there. However, the military has some genuine support from the people (unlike the despised state police), and I doubt the military will want to lose that support. How long the military will support Mubarak is the key question at this point. I suspect not long if these riots continue. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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