sâmbătă, 26 februarie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


I Disagree with Fred; Marketing is for Companies that Have Great Products

Posted: 26 Feb 2011 06:49 AM PST

Posted by randfish

One of the people I admire and respect most in the technology, startup world is Union Square Ventures' Fred Wilson. A little more than a year ago, I had the opportunity to sit down and chat with Fred in his New York offices, just as SEOmoz was ending a failed fund raising attempt. The writer I'd come to know and love through his blog and tweets shone through - he's affable, humble, smart and considerate. And his firm employed (at that time anyway) an analyst with professional SEO experience, who also sat in on the meeting.

Today, Fred wrote a post on his blog titled "Marketing."

Marketing Post from AVC

I strongly disagree with the statement "marketing is what you do when your product or service sucks," and I mostly disagree that it only pays to use marketing when profit margins are insanely high. As I read it, part of me wondered , "Isn't the goal of venture capital to help a company scale faster than it could without funding?"

To be fair to Fred, what he calls "marketing" is what I believe many of us in the startup/tech space would call "advertising" or "paid customer acquisition channels." Later in the post, he says:

Marketing Rule

I disagree less with this point. For some startups, "free" customer acquisition in early stages certainly makes sense as the primary channel, though I'd question whether the right amount to spend is always $0.00. That strikes me as both extreme and rarely correct. At the very least, startups should be experimenting with paid acquisition channels that look compelling - ignoring them simply because they aren't free could really hurt your growth potential.

My Perspective on Startup Marketing

I've helped a lot of startups in various stages with marketing - through SEOmoz's old consulting business, through lots of personal relationships, through our Q+A and through events and conferences. Last year, YCombinator's Paul Graham invited me down to their Silion Valley offices for a pizza party where I talked about SEO for startups. I gave a similar talk at Seattle's Techstars a few months ago and a brand new one that I presented at Twiistup in Los Angeles just a couple weeks ago. I've embedded that presentation below:

 

I'm a huge believer in inbound marketing, which includes social media, content marketing (blogging, whitepapers, research, infographics, etc.), SEO, video, Q+A and comment marketing and loads of other free (or mostly free) channels. Inbound marketing is a powerful way to make consumers aware of your business and your products, and in my opinion, it's one in which people don't invest nearly enough. I'm worried that Fred's post will re-inforce a harmful stereotype that I see a lot in the tech startup world.

"Product is All That Matters?"

For the first few years that I was in the "web world," 1997-2001, there was a dangerous and obvious bias in startups toward sales and marketing - and branding in particular. But, in the past few years, that pendulum has swung to the equally dangerous paradigm that product is everything.

Pendulum of Product/Marketing Focus

Don't get me wrong - I think a product-bias in a startup is an extremely healthy thing to have. SEOmoz's focus is ~65% product, 35% everything else, and that ratio is likely to be more product-biased in the future. But I see so many great startups who need, more than anything, to GET THE WORD OUT.

Let's look in Union Square's Ventures portfolio:

  • Zemanta - one of USV's companies that everyone who reads this blog should probably know about, yet I'd guess that <10% do. Certainly, Zemanta has cool product opportunities that it can and should execute, but they also seriously need to better reach the search marketing community. I've seen them doing so somewhat actively - sponsoring and speaking at events, some content marketing and outreach, case studies and networking (and that's just what I've personally observed).
  • Clickable - another USV-backed venture that's in the marketing space; Clickable helps advertisers manage all their account on Google, Bing, Facebook and more in one place (which is awesome). Again, I think a 70/30 product/marketing balance makes sense, but there's no way they shouldn't be using the power of inbound marketing to build awareness and bring their market to their site. No offense intended, but the Clickable blog, with its anonymous icons and erroneous Facebook integration (note that the same number of people "like" every post) could use some marketing TLC.
  • Etsy - back in 2009, when SEOmoz had a small consulting arm, we helped Etsy on some SEO and community outreach features. From what I've heard and seen, that effort paid off. Here's some Google Trends data (which, granted, is far from perfect):
    Etsy SEO Love

Some of USV's companies -  Twitter, Foursquare, Meetup and, to a slightly lesser extent, Stackoverflow - may indeed have product built around natural marketing. The very act of using the services creates an incentive to share, to participate and to discover. But, quite honestly, this is not the reality for most startups, especially those who are B2B focused.

In fact, there are a ton of great startups that need at least as much marketing as they do product growth. For example:

  • Trunk.ly - already a phenomenally useful and addictive product. My understanding is they're seeking investment to help grow/scale and, more than anything, they need a few dozen to hundred more evangelists and articles extolling their virtues. I think even Fred would agree that marketing is a "must."
  • Namesake - a very cool conversation and opportunity platform, Namesake is another example of a startup that could benefit from significantly more brand-awareness and participation. Whatever dirt Quora has on TechCrunch's editors - yeah, they should get some of that.
  • The Resumator - following several years of successful operation and growth, Resumator has a lot of customer feedback and a fairly mature product that's truly useful and powerful. Awareness among HR professionals and SMBs who struggle with the inefficiencies of hiring, however, is low. It's possible some unique product features would skyrocket Resumator to the moon, but I'd guess that marketing (both inbound and through paid channels) is one of the best investments they can make.
  • Markup.io - this seriously slick and useful app could certainly benefit from additional features and product maturity, but it's already solving a big pain for web workers of all stripes. More people who have this pain need to know about Markup - marketing is the answer (at least, to that problem).

I'm not a believer that a market will simply flock to a great product. Many great products have died due to obscurity; only a few great products have succeeded in spite of rejecting marketing. Fred uses the examples of Twitter and FourSquare; Google could be another reasonable example. Those are outliers, and while they might be the types of companies Fred is seeking to invest in, they're the exception, not the rule, and thus I worry that the advice and perspective will have the wrong impact.

An Update from Fred

As I was writing this post, Fred published an update he called "The Bug Report." Unfortunately, in my opinion, there's still a lot of bad advice.

Marketing Bug Post

Ack! Fred is, whether intentionally or not, one of the startup world's most influential marketers and that carries over to the companies he invests in as well. When Zemanta's team reached out to talk to me, they had only to mention Fred's backing to get my attention. When Fred first started writing about Disqus, using their plug-in on his site and evangelizing their value, he became one of their biggest marketing channels.

Fred Wilson is, undeniably, a powerhouse of an inbound marketer. When I saw that he was writing about marketing, I hoped to hear his perspective on the incredible channels he's built through content and social media. I wanted to know how he helped to bring legitimacy and media attention to New York as an emerging startup epicenter. I was curious about how he built a following on his blog, how he picked topics to write about, how he coached his companies to build their own inbound marketing. I was hoping for the same transparency on his clearly strategic and well-planned marketing campaigns (e.g. the startup visa) that he offers with his MBA Monday series.

And reading his posts, I felt let down. Perhaps I've just been so impressed with the rest of his written work that my standards are too high.

The final point of contention between us is Fred's view on marketing professionals:

Marketing Professionals

Being not only a marketing professional, but someone who's done work to help Fred's portfolio companies with marketing, it's hard not to take personal offense. I don't know if he'd loop in the consulting efforts we provided to Etsy or the small amounts of pro bono assistance I've given to Zemanta in that group, but I know that any attack on marketing professionals of this magnitude is going to cause ripple effects.

So, instead of engaging directly, let me just point out some examples of amazing marketing professionals who've had dramatic, positive impacts on our businesses and others:

  • Probably no one is more famous for startup marketing than Sean Ellis, who's helped companies like Dropbox, Xobni, LogMeIn, Eventbrite and many more with early stage, inbound marketing. I've spoken to founders from several of those companies and they've raved about him.
  • The team at Unbounce has built a great product in a somewhat crowded space, and while their engineering differentiation is quite remarkable, it's been the efforts of Oli Gardner, Director of Inbound Marketing, who's gotten them onto the radar of the web marketing community (at least, from my perspective).
  • UK-based Conversion Rate Experts has showcased a lot of their incredible work, which needs little introduction here. They helped SEOmoz scale from a business that focused almost entirely on product to one that finally took some pride in its conversion funnel and ability to sell. I rave about them every chance I get.
  • SEOmoz's own marketing team, under the direction of Jamie Steven, has accelerated the business in a way that can't be underestimated. Yes - we've got a fantastic engineering team, we built some uniquely useful products in Linkscape, Open Site Explorer, the Web App and the mozBar, but without our marketing efforts, we'd probably be a much smaller, more niche company and the amazing efforts of our product and engineering teams could impact only a fraction of the customers we serve today.

There's many, many more examples I can and should showcase, but reflecting on it, I don't need to. I think this is a great opportunity to use the comments to showcase what you - as inbound marketers - have been able to accomplish. Let's take Fred's assertion that "marketing professionals do a lot of damage" and prove it wrong, example by example.

I can't wait to read what you've got to share, and as an added incentive, the moz team will send a nice care package to the comment (or comments) exemplifying the power of inbound marketing with the most thumbs up.


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Your Weekly Address: Traveling the Country, Winning the Future

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, Feb. 26, 2011
 

Your Weekly Address: Traveling the Country, Winning the Future

The President discusses his recent travels and the examples he’s seen of how America can win the future. He urges Congress to heed these examples in the coming budget debate and to tighten our belts without eliminating investments in innovation, education and infrastructure.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

Small Business Forum: President Obama travels to Cleveland, Ohio, to visit the Winning the Future Forum on Small Business. He met with dozens of small business leaders, and even stopped by a live online chat with Austan Goolsbee to answer your questions. Also, SBA Administrator Karen Mills chaired a breakout session on entrepreneurship.

Behind-the-Scenes Video: President Obama hosts a screening of Thurgood at the White House movie theater -- an HBO film about the life and career of Thurgood Marshall, the remarkable Civil Rights lawyer and the first African-American Supreme Court Justice. Watch the video.

Turmoil in Libya: President Obama says the violence in Libya is "outrageous" and "unacceptable," and that his Administration is looking at the "full range of options we have to respond to this crisis." Watch the video.

The Energy of Entrepreneurs: Energy Secretary Steven Chu was also in Cleveland for the Small Business Forum, and met with innovators who are on the cutting edge of clean energy technology.

Council on Jobs and Competitiveness: The President attended the first meeting of his Council on Jobs and Competitiveness. Read about the meeting, and how the President is working with leaders from across all sectors of the economy to create jobs and improve American prosperity.

West Wing Week: "Don't Bump My Atoms".

The Commencement Challenge: The deadline for schools to apply has been extended to March 11th, 2011. Tell us how your school is preparing students for the economy of the future, and you could have President Obama speak at your commencement.

A New Facebook Page: Kalpen Modi announces a new Facebook page to help young adults find insurance coverage.

Black History Month: WhiteHouse.gov celebrates Black History Month with a series of blog posts highlighting the contributions of African Americans whose work is helping to achieve the President's goals for winning the future.

More Visitors Records Online: The White House releases visitor records that were created in November 2010 or requested in January 2011 -- more than 1,000,000 records released to date.

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London SES: Overview of Day 1

Posted: 25 Feb 2011 05:54 AM PST

On Tuesday I was at SES London. I was also at SES for a day last year and I thought that this year was much better in terms of the quality of the presentations and speakers. Hats off to the organising team for making these improvements.

The Keynote

The keynote was by Jeff Hayzlett, the former CMO of Kodak. He was an amazing speaker. In fact he was so good that he could have been talking rubbish and I would have sat there amazed. If Jeff had said “what organisations need to do these days is throw money down a big hole”, I would have been thinking “have we got room in the office for a money pit?”.

I think the content was pretty good but, as I’ve said, I was so overawed that I’m not really in a position to judge.

Session 1: Basic Analytics

I thought this would be a waste of time for me (I’m arrogant enough to assume I don’t need basic Analytics training), but I’m ashamed to say I did come away with a few things to think about. John Marshall gave a good presentation from which I made the following notes:

  • KPIs need to be understood by the C-level. This mostly means they need to have a $ sign in them somewhere.
  • John really loves AOV as a metric. He prefers it to conversion rate. I disagree here. Having done conversion rate work on sites where they changed their prices midway through the experiment, I’d say that the link between AOV and conversion rate is too important, so it is a bad idea to look at either in isolation.
  • He also says that bounce rate is a great metric. I’m not so sure on this. Think about it this way: What is the bounce rate for Wikipedia? Would it be good if that increased or decreased?
  • The main point for me was how important segmentation is. This is something that I know how to do and that I use regularly, but I need to be much more proactive about pushing this at clients.
  • Surveys are also something that I’m going to attach more importance to now.

Session 2: A Powerful New Choice in Search

I was disappointed by this session. Somehow I had got it into my head that it would have been more of an open forum, with Binghoo asking the room “How can we improve our advertising” and us agency guys yelling back “Give us an MCC!” Instead it was a presentation about how the transition will take place and how once it is done the world will be full of sunshine and rainbows for all who have to work with them.

  • Yahoo and Bing use quite military language. I made a note of “join forces”, “alliance” and “retreat”. I might be reading too much into this, or it could be that they are on a serious war footing internally.
  • They talked a lot about improving ROI for advertisers, which is a personal hate for me. What about profit?
  • They estimate that the time saving caused by the merger will be around 20%. I need to get a job working solely on Panama/AdCenter accounts before the merger is complete so that after it is done I can take Friday off work.
  • Jon Myers talked about some advertisers getting a “great increase in CPA”. I assumed this was a blooper.
  • Another message that was used throughout the presentation was “efficiency”. Which makes it ironic that they’re reducing market efficiency by forcing advertisers to bid the same on Yahoo and Bing.
  • One of the advantages of the search alliance is “bringing two businesses together to innovate faster”. I thought the general opinion was that smaller unites were better for fast innovation.

Session 3: Meaningful SEO Metrics

Pete Young gave an excellent presentation on SEO forecasting. Unfortunately (for you), the main point I got from this is that I will have to look at his presentation and take my time going through it. I think the rest of the audience felt the same because, given the interesting topic, there were very few questions for Pete afterwards.

Matthew Bailey’s presentation was on some of the methods his company uses when doing Analytics. Some of what he said was, in my opinion, fundamentally flawed. He talked about dragging in as many data points as possible and then looking for patterns. Unfortunately people are very good at spotting patterns where no pattern exists. He didn’t really have a good answer on how to prevent this happening, apart from that any conclusion you make should be immediately obvious from that data.

If I study the moon for long enough then I see a face. Excluding the hypothesis that the moon is a face and not a lump of rock I have to conclude that the face was made by aliens because I know it wasn’t made by us. Therefore aliens exist.

Going too deep in the data has dangers.

Session 4: The Ultimate Search Marketing Battle

I am a PPC guy. Nothing that was said here was ever going to change my mind, but the session was fun. I probably should have gone to the Analytics Deep Dive instead; that might have been more productive in terms of learning new and interesting things.

As I mentioned in the introduction, I was impressed with the quality of the conference compared to last year. The speakers were excellent and there was enough interesting content to make the day worthwhile for me.

© SEOptimise – Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. London SES: Overview of Day 1

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vineri, 25 februarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Interactive Map of Case Shiller Home Price Drop from Peak; Reflections on Flying Monkeys

Posted: 25 Feb 2011 04:46 PM PST

Tim Ellis at the Seattle Bubble blog sent me an email along with an interesting map of data on Case Shiller 20 metropolitan housing market index in Tableau form. Please give the table a few seconds to load.



Hover over any of the 20 cities to see decline from peak. For Tim's post Friday Flashback: Case-Shiller Home Price Losses Mapped

Tim pointed out one amusing post by Greg Swan at BloodHoundBlog. I am going to post a larger snip. Please consider 21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market written July 21, 2006.
HousingPanic, a particularly vitriolic BubbleBlog — which is saying something — asks: Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?

Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings. Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.

That's all one. I don't care. The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them. The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish. You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along. But as long as you don't hold your breath waiting for that contrite admission of error, you should be fine.

Here's where I do start to care. Whenever the subject of Phoenix comes up in a BubbleBlog, the assembled Brown Shirts pile on, for whatever reason. ...

Which brings me back to HousingPanic's question. We keep our own home sales price statistics, so we have no doubt that values are down from their high in December. How much? Right now, about 4%. Could they go lower? Certainly. Will they drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely.

What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year's buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth — historically 6% a year. The reason this should happen is very simple: Population growth. ...
Greg Swan, super Phoenix bull drones on with 21 preposterous reasons why Phoenix will not crash. All of his reasons were rebutted at the time and in detail by myself and others so many times and in so many places, I could fill up pages listing them.

To name a single name, Professor Piggington was among the first with a complete analysis, not of Phoenix per se, but a thorough, and sound analysis why the population argument did not hold up.

I posted my own chart of where the bubble was on March 26, 2005 in It's a Totally New Paradigm





San Diego Home Prices (with thanks to piggington)
The first chart above is mine. I added the annotations on the second chart, created by Professor Piggington.

Here is my favorite quote at the time.

Gregory J. Heym, the chief economist at Brown Harris Stevens, is not sold on the inevitability of a downturn. He bases his confidence in the market on things like continuing low mortgage rates, high Wall Street bonuses and the tax benefits of home ownership. "It is a new paradigm" he said.

I have updated that chart many times over the years, including Collapse Of The "Ownership Society" August 16, 2009.

I need to move the arrow another notch.

We now have the truth. It was not a "new paradigm". Price-to-rent and price-to-wage matters.

Doug Swan "Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde. ... Right now, [prices are about 4% lower]. Could they go lower? Certainly. Will they drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely."

Who's the Flying Monkey?



It was Greg Swan's idiotic self-serving economic analysis and hype that helped lure dumb speculators into "can't lose" Phoenix. Prices are now 54.7% off the peak in June 2006.

Greg Swan called housing bears "flying monkeys" right as his area peaked. I believe congratulations are in order. It's not easy to be that boldly inept.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


FDIC Conducting Stress Test Exams - "Shock Testing 400 Basis Points Up and Nothing Down"

Posted: 25 Feb 2011 10:26 AM PST

In response to The Next Borrow-Short Lend-Long Guaranteed to Blow Up Bank Lending Scheme; Citigroup, Chase, Bank of America CD Ripoff I received an interesting Email from "ABO" a Bank Owner and CEO regarding new FDIC shock testing exams.

ABO writes ...
Hello Mish

You nailed it on the CDs. I just got done with an FDIC exam and they requested shock testing 400 basis points up and nothing down. Hard to go below zero.

In terms of 5 to 7 year CDs a 15 year GNMA is probably a better way to go. Don't buy them at a premium and look at average life of 4 to 5 years. They are zero risk based as well.

Anyway nice job I could not agree with you more.
Here is a snip from my post regarding new borrow-short lend long schemes. Refer to the link at the top for a discussion of absurdly low CD rates offered by Bank of America and Citigroup, or for the full discussion about the duration mismatch problem banks are getting themselves into.
The Next Borrow-Short Lend-Long Guaranteed to Blow Scheme

.... With the discussion about duration mismatch out in the open, please consider Banks Go Straight to Public Borrowers
Banks are setting aside billions of dollars to do something that until now was rarely heard of: making big loans to cities, states, schools and other public borrowers that otherwise might have turned to the bond market.

When Riverside, Calif., was ironing out a bond offering recently to expand its performing-arts center, several banks pitched a radical idea: Why not take out a loan instead? The city scrapped the bond plan and borrowed $25 million from City National Bank in Los Angeles.

"This was a method we'd never even heard of before," says Scott Catlett, the city's assistant finance director. He says Riverside now intends to seek a bank loan for a conference center that it had planned to build with bonds.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is devoting billions of dollars to direct loans this year to both refinance deals and for new projects, according to a bank official. Last year, the bank made a few hundred million dollars of direct loans to municipalities. Now, the bank would consider making a single loan for hundreds of millions of dollars, the official said. It also is dispatching teams to explain the concept to wary public borrowers.

Citibank also is courting municipal borrowers with direct loans, according to several bond issuers. A spokesman for the Citigroup Inc. unit declined to comment.

"This used to be unheard of," says Eric Friedland, managing director of public finance at Fitch Ratings, noting that in the past, banks would occasionally loan a municipality less than $1 million to finance projects too small for a bond offering. For bigger loans, they would form a syndicate with other lenders.

It remains to be seen what land mines may be lurking for lenders and borrowers. Some municipalities are going through significant struggles, raising questions about whether they will prove good credits. And direct loans are less liquid, meaning banks can't sell them as easily as bonds.

For banks, this is a potentially lucrative business at a time when they are sitting on cash that isn't earning huge interest and are reluctant to make loans for mortgages and other areas they see as risky.

In the event of a bankruptcy, analysts say, it is unlikely that a bank extending a direct loan would be given priority over bondholders.

The city saved hundreds of thousands of dollars in issuance costs, says Mr. Catlett, the assistant finance director. Plus, he says, the interest rate is 3.85% versus at least 5% if it had floated a public offering. The term is slightly lower—21 years versus perhaps 30 years in the bond market.

"This was all new to us," he says. "I don't know now when we'll go back to the bond market. This is easier."
Fed or FDIC Should Stop this Fraudulent Scheme Now

The Fed or FDIC should step in right now. There is no way banks can secure cost of funds for 21 years for 3.85%. Moreover, the risk of default is hardly zero, and banks will not be first in line should default happen.

I think borrowing-short and lending-long is fraudulent. How can you lend something for 21 years when you only have the right to use it for 3, 5, or 7?

Want to know what those banks thinking? This is what ....

  • They are too big too fail
  • The Fed will bail them out
  • Cities won't default but who cares anyway because the Fed will bail them out
  • They have a hot pile of cash the Fed crammed down their throats at 0% and they want to put it to use
  • They got burnt badly on mortgages and home equity loans so they need to find something new
  • One idiot bank made an absurdly risky deal so like sheep they all want to do it

Right now they are all thinking there is nothing to lose from this. The Fed or Congress will bail them out at taxpayer expense if they get in trouble.

Then, when this does get out of control and blows sky high, they will all scream, "no one could possibly have seen it coming".
For a follow-up post with further discussion including an email from a reader about someone being taken advantage of by B of A, please see Bank of America Preys on Elderly Depositors; Culture of Greed, Arrogance, Incompetence.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


World's Largest Pension Fund Needs to Sell Japanese Bonds; Japan's Demographic Time Bomb Officially Goes Off

Posted: 25 Feb 2011 01:58 AM PST

I's now official. Japan's demographic time bomb has gone off. However, don't look for a big crater, at least just yet, because this has started off with a whimper and not a bang.

Inquiring minds note the World's Biggest Pension Fund May Sell Japan Bonds.
Japan's public pension fund, the world's largest, said it may become a net seller of bonds to cover payments in the world's most rapidly aging society.

The Government Pension Investment Fund, which oversees 117.6 trillion yen ($1.4 trillion), in September forecast that it would sell 4 trillion yen in assets in the business year ending March 31 to fund payouts. Sales may be less than that in the year starting April as bonds reach maturity, said Takahiro Mitani, president of the fund, known as GPIF.

"We will likely be a net seller in the market," Mitani, a former executive director at the Bank of Japan, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. "We certainly have to come up with an adequate amount" to pay pensions, he said, declining to elaborate on the amount.

Sales by the fund, which helps oversee public pension funds for Japan's 37 million retirees, come as the first of Japan's baby boomers is set to turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments.

The GPIF, historically one of the biggest buyers of Japanese debt, held 82.4 trillion yen in domestic bonds, or 70 percent of its assets, as of September, according to the fund's latest quarterly financial statement. That compares with 12.6 trillion yen in Japanese stocks, or 10.7 percent, 9.6 trillion yen, or 8.2 percent, in foreign bonds and 11.5 trillion yen, or 9.7 percent, in overseas stocks, the report shows.

GPIF doesn't plan to start investing in so-called alternative assets such as commodities, real estate, infrastructure, private equity or hedge funds because the risks don't suit its strategy, Mitani said.
'Too Early'

"It's too early to get into alternative investments now," Mitani said. "Japanese investors are conservative and it's hard to justify to the public investing in asset classes such as commodities, real estate and hedge funds."

Japan's 10-year bond yield is the lowest in the world, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Japan's gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said on Feb. 14, and China's economy overtook Japan's as the world's second largest for 2010.

People aged 65 or older will account for 29 percent of the country's population in 2020 and almost 40 percent in 2050, according to the statistics bureau. They accounted for 23 percent population at the end of 2010, the highest among the Group of Seven countries, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with 12 percent in 1990.

Japanese pension funds posted the lowest annualized growth among 12 countries between 2004 and 2009, at 2 percent in U.S. dollar terms and unchanged in yen terms, according to the survey. Brazil reported the highest growth, 24 percent in dollars, the report showed.
Thoughts and Implications

There is not going to be a huge exodus of Japanese bonds anytime soon. However, the world's largest fund has gone from being a buyer of bonds to a seller of bonds. The amount is not trivial.

82.4 trillion yen in domestic bonds is about 1 trillion in US dollars. That is a lot of pent-up supply, especially when the government is running an annual deficit of of about $240 billion with no external buyers at all.

Those factors put huge long-term upward pressures on interest rates.

Deflation Irony

The irony in this madness is that all the Japanese people want is their money back. They are not looking for appreciation. They do not have absurd pension plan assumptions like the 8% expected returns we see in the US. They do not want stocks, or real estate. They just want cash, and they want it to be worth something.

Yet, the Japanese government was hell-bent for two decades attempting to generate inflation which would have weakened the value of those bonds.

Recently, those bond holdings have been rising with a strengthening yen. However, lingering debt from preposterous deflation fighting efforts of building bridges to nowhere must be paid back.

Horns of a Dilemma

Japan choices are to default on its debt, print money to fund interest on the debt, raise taxes effectively robbing savers of their money, or undertake huge spending cuts.

The dilemma stems from years of Keynesian and Monetarist stupidity.

Japan Plans Tax Hikes

The Wall Street Journal reports Japan Issues Budget Deficit Plan
Japan's government pledged to balance the nation's main budget over the coming decade under its first fiscal-overhaul plan, approved Tuesday, laying the groundwork for the daunting task of tackling the country's massive debt.

Highlighting the challenge of such an undertaking, the government estimated that if growth remains modest, it may have to fill an annual budgetary gap of about 22 trillion Japanese yen (US$242 billion) by the fiscal year ending March 2021. If Tokyo were to raise that amount only by increasing the 5% consumption tax—one gauge being used—it would need to increase the tax nearly threefold.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan's government will kick off the fiscal-reform campaign by capping annual spending for the next three fiscal years and keeping new government bond issuance below 44.3 trillion yen next fiscal year. The debt amount is estimated the same as in the current fiscal year that started in April. Tokyo also promised to make "utmost efforts" to lower the amount in the following years.

The budgetary blueprints represent the first fiscal-reform plans adopted by the Democratic Party of Japan since it swept to power about nine months ago. They offer the clearest picture yet of how Mr. Kan's economic team intends to lower the nation's public-debt level, which at nearly twice Japan's yearly economic output is the worst among advanced economies.

Japanese government bonds rose as investors welcomed the plan. Lead September JGB futures finished the day up 0.34 at 140.82, while the 10-year JGB yield fell to 1.185%, its lowest level since January 2009.

But questions linger about feasibility of the framework. Absent from the blueprint are detailed spending-cut plans, such as how much to scale back individual budget categories like defense and education. There also aren't timetables for specific tax increases despite Mr. Kan's calls for doubling Japan's consumption tax in the coming years.

"The government has yet to provide details of how it can achieve the goal," said Masashi Shimominami, a bond-market analyst at Mizuho Securities. Some investors also remain skeptical over whether Mr. Kan will rally enough political support for heavier taxes on consumption, Mr. Shimominami said.

The release of the plan comes as Japanese officials shift their policy focus to fixing budgetary woes after receiving a wake-up call from Europe's deepening debt crisis. "We must make sure we avoid a situation where we lose trust in the government bond markets just like Greece and, as a result, interest rates rise sharply, putting our finances in a state of default," the guidelines said.
No Political Will For Budget Cuts

As in the US, there is no political will for budget cuts. The best the government could come up with was a plan to freeze spending for 3-years. Whoop-to-do. Bear in mind that an aging demographic will require more health care.

Will growth be sufficient to make a long-term dent in Japan's debt? I scoff at the notion. Moreover, rising energy prices will take a big bite of of Japan's trade surplus.

By the way, in case you missed it, Japan's trade surplus went negative last month. Supposedly it's a one-time thing.

Japan posts first trade deficit in almost two years

Please consider Japan posts first trade deficit in almost two years
Weaker exports to key markets gave Japan its first trade deficit in 22 months, Ministry of Finance data has shown.

The trade deficit was 471.42bn yen ($5.7bn; £3.52bn) in January, with exports up 1.4%. Analysts had expected export growth to be closer to 7%.

Japan has struggled to boost exports as a stronger yen dents demand.

It recently lost its position as the world's second-largest economy to China.
Changing scenario?

However, analysts said they expect exports to rebound.

That should help drive economic growth in Japan, albeit at a pace that is slower than many experts may have predicted.

One of the main reasons for the slower growth was weaker demand from China, where the government is battling inflation and signs that its economy may be overheating.
Japan is counting on increased sales to China when China is clearly overheating and will have to cut back. How do you think that fantasy is going to work out?

So, it's back to tax hikes. To do it all with tax hikes, Japan would need to hike the VAT by 200%, from 5% to 15%. Is that going to fly with the voters?

Nonetheless, let's assume Japan does hike taxes. Those tax hikes would strengthen the yen, which in turn would hurt Japan's export growth and corporate profits.

My suspicion is Japan will print money, cheapening the yen, as the most convenient way out. Printing money will make matters worse in the long haul of course, but it will put off making any tough choices now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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