Central Perk

joi, 31 martie 2011

Gas Prices

Good afternoon,

Surprised at how much it cost last time you filled up your gas tank? You're not alone. Millions of families and businesses across the country are feeling the pinch of rising gas prices.

Here's the thing: as long as our economy relies on oil and as demand in countries like China and India continues to grow, we'll be subject to these kinds of spikes in gas prices.

We've been down this road before -- just three years ago, gas prices rose to their highest level ever. There was no quick fix to lower prices then, just as there isn't one now.

For decades, politicians here in Washington have talked a lot about the dangers of our dependence on foreign oil, but this talk hasn't always been met with action. And today, Americans pay a price for that inaction every time they fill up their tanks.

Yesterday, we unveiled a Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future that sets a goal of reducing our imports of foreign oil. By 2025 -- a little more than a decade from now -- we will have cut that reliance by one-third.

Learn more about the Blueprint and watch President Obama's speech on energy security:

In his speech yesterday, President Obama outlined his plan to secure our energy future by developing and securing America's energy resources, bringing energy costs down for consumers, and innovating our way to a clean energy future.

Increase domestic energy production. Last year, American oil production reached its highest level since 2003. And, because we can't just drill our way out of this crisis, we're reducing our dependence on oil by increasing fuel efficiency and increasing our production of natural gas and biofuels.
Reduce demand for oil. Transportation is responsible for 70 percent of our petroleum consumption, so one of the quickest and easiest ways to reduce our dependence on foreign oil is to make transportation more efficient. That's why, in April of last year, the Obama Administration established a groundbreaking national fuel efficiency standard for cars and trucks that will save us 1.8 billion barrels of oil and save consumers thousands of dollars. We're also making investments in electric vehicles and the advanced batteries that power them to ensure that high-quality, fuel-efficient cars and trucks are built right here in America.
Increase production of clean energy. In his State of the Union address, President Obama set a goal that by 2035, 80 percent of our electricity should come from clean energy sources including renewables like wind and solar, nuclear energy, efficient natural gas, and clean coal.

The concepts are straightforward, but the execution will be challenging. In order to make this happen, Republicans and Democrats in Congress must find common ground for a responsible and effective energy policy.

But no matter your views on this issue, I think we can all agree that the United States simply can't afford to leave this challenge for future generations to solve.

Sincerely,

David Plouffe
Senior Advisor to the President

P.S. Check out our new Advise the Advisor video featuring Secretary of Energy Steven Chu and give us your feedback on how we can meet the President's goal of reducing imports of oil by one-third in a little over a decade:

http://www.WhiteHouse.gov/Advise

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Advise the Advisor: Secretary Chu on Energy Policy

Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, March 31, 2011

Advise the Advisor: Secretary Chu on Energy Policy

In the latest installment of Advise the Advisor, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu asks for your feedback on meeting President Obama’s goal of reducing our oil imports by one-third in a little over a decade.

Tell us what you think.

Facebook vs Twitter: Which is More Valuable? Graywolf's SEO Blog

Facebook vs Twitter: Which is More Valuable?

Posted: 31 Mar 2011 07:42 AM PDT

Recently there has been a lot of talk about Facebook versus Twitter and which is more valuable to web publishers. If you’re looking for the short answer, IMHO it’s Facebook; but, to understand why, you need to have deeper understanding of how each system works.

One of the key aspects of Twitter’s meteoric rise was a very low barrier to entry: basically all you needed was a working email address. This is also one of Twitter’s drawbacks, making it extremely easy for one person to create and manage more than one Twitter account. If you’ve ever gotten a robo-tweet from an egg account after mentioning the word “iPad”, “iPhone” or the word “dating,” you known what I mean.

The second issue with Twitter lies with how it’s used by the power users and social media experts. The Twitter maven drank the kook-aid about being Malcom Gladwell style connectors and mavens. Their misguided belief that their style of curation and expertise was some how unique–enough to be a value add–shows how truly delusional they are. If you’re unfamiliar with the term “connector” and “maven”, I strongly suggest reading Malcolm Gladwell’s book the Tipping Point. It contains essential lessons every marketer should know.

Next we need to look at Facebook. While the barrier to entry is still low (requiring just an email), there is an element of social proof built into it. It’s not hard to get 50 people to friend/follow you on Twitter. It’s a lot harder to get 50 people to be your friend on Facebook. There will always be friend whores in Facebook, but there are a lot less of them (percentage wise) compared to Twitter.

Another key difference is that a large part of the Twitter population, especially the darlings of the media, is nothing more than a marketer or social media guru looking for a retweet or click. They are not looking for a quality lead or conversion. Social media for many people is still about traffic and eyeballs, not sales and conversions. If you’re trying to build a follower base, these type of users are practically useless. They may retweet your message, but only to other digital con men. They simply are never going to fill out your lead gen form or pull out a credit card. To be honest, when you’re looking for followers who are going to turn into prospects or customers, traditional social media metrics like klout are useless. You should be much more interested in the person with a 12 klout score with 50 friends and followers who’s generally (or genuinely!) interested in your product, service, or area of operation. One person who is interested in what you’re selling is much more valuable than 500 people who will simply retweet your message to 500 other social media parrots.

However, it’s important to note that, like nature, spam will adapt and find a way in. Since Facebook consolidated its social equity into the “like button“, it has become an attractive target for marketers, so much so that it’s even got a name: “like -gate“. Basically the “like” action is being corrupted and incentivized the same way links were on Google. Some companies are even having a bit of fun being irreverent in acknowledging the insincerity of the like action (screen shot credit MarketingPilgrim)

Mio Advertisement

As a marketer, what should you do? Right now Facebook isn’t prepared to deal with the incentivized likes, so it’s in your best interest to take advantage of that before the gap is closed. I’m not saying go out and buy as may likes as you can, I’m saying buy as many qualified likes as you can while it’s still cheap and easy. Remember Facebook traffic and Twitter traffic have different values and should be treated differently and given different priorities and resources within your overall marketing plan.

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Facebook vs Twitter: Which is More Valuable?

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Improve Your Client Reporting with APIs

Posted: 30 Mar 2011 03:00 AM PDT

Search marketing agencies need to report to clients regularly and keep them up to date with what is happening with their site. There are already tools out there that will automate your reporting, but each client has individual needs for their reporting. Different metrics are important for different clients. Your reporting software won’t always have the option to track your clearly defined KPIs. Some tools do allow a high level of customisation with your reports, such as Raven tools, but often the only way to produce the right result for your client will be with bespoke reports.

So Build A Custom Report For Each Client?

Although this may seem as though it will take a long time, it is important to get your reports right. Remember, for many employees in your client's companies this may the only communication they see from your agency, so it needs to be done right.

So you've decided what your client's needs are, but how are you going to collect the relevant data? You could collect the data manually, running rank checkers, pulling the data from Google Analytics web interface etc. But we all know our time could be better spent.

What's the alternative to this? Automation!

So How Can We Automate?

Lots of the tools you use manually may have an API available to extract the data, which means you can write a script to pull all the data you need automatically, rather than wasting a whole morning collecting the data. One of the most useful APIs you'll come across is the Google Analytics API, which is free to use and gives you access to a large quantity of useful data that you may want to include in your report. But other tools provide API that may prove useful, such as Raven ranking API to get your keyword rankings, or the SEOmoz API to obtain metrics such as page authority and domain authority. There are others available too, but which ones you use will be defined by your client's needs.

So once you've identified which APIs you'll need, you will need to get the hard bit: the coding. Some people like coding, but most people don't. So choose someone in the office with a little experience in coding if possible, otherwise it may be a bit daunting for a first timer. However, if you haven't any previous experience, don't be completely put off – you have to start somewhere!

Now that you've chosen your victim, here's an example of how the API could be used to track a particular metric and how it will help save you time.

Example: Tracking Rankings and Non-brand Search Visits

So let's say for an imaginary client, two of the most important metrics for them are ranking and visits to the site from search queries that don't include the brand name.

The first of these metrics can be taken from Raven tools if your agency uses it. An explanation of how to use the API is available on the Raven site.

For the search visits, this data is available from Google Analytics with an advanced segment. You can set up an advanced segment easily in the web interface and then you can use this when making use of the Google Analytics Data Export API, which luckily is free to use.

The analytics API is available through a number of client libraries, so choose your language of choice and have a look through the examples that Google provides.

Personally I quite like PHP, so I tend to opt for a third party PHP library called GAPI, which makes calling the API very easy.

Once you've got a script set up to pull your numbers out, then you want to present these in a readable way for your client. One way to do this is with the Google Chart API, which allows you create a range of static graphs and charts with your data.

Once I have all the figures and charts that I need for my report, I like to make use of a couple of other useful PHP libraries, namely PHPExcel and PHPWord. This allows me to save my data in a nicely formatted Excel or Word document that I can send across to the client. So for this example, I could create a Word document with a table of the keyword rankings and a chart showing the non-brand search queries visits over the last month, all in a nicely branded document with space to add some human analysis on the data collected.

So if you combine all this into a script that can be run every time a report is due, you will be saving yourself a lot of time. But why wait for the script to run? Set up a cron job to run at scheduled times, such as every week/month, and you can have that document ready for you when you reach the office in the morning!

Why Not Take It A Step Further?

Keeping a client up to date on how their site is performing is important, so why should they have to wait until reporting day to see how their metrics are faring? If the client wants to check on their metrics more often, then these APIs could be used to create a dashboard with the latest figures. A useful tool for this may be the Google Visualisation API, which allows you to create impressive looking charts and graphs which are both aesthetically pleasing and an efficient way of showing data. Having a dashboard like this will also help you as an agency, as it provides an easy way for you to keep track of what's happening and avoid unpleasant surprises on reporting day.

However, don't let these replace your reports. Your input as an SEO to explain the figures is very important to avoid them being misinterpreted, and that can't be replaced with an API!

Seth's Blog : Compared to perfect: the price/value mismatch in content

Compared to perfect: the price/value mismatch in content

"How's the wine?"

You really can't answer that question out of context. Compared to what? Compared to a hundred dollar bottle? Not so good. Compared to any other $12 bottle... great!

"How was the hotel?"

"How's the service at the post office?"

In just about all the decisions we make, we consider the price. A shipper doesn't expect the same level of service quality from a first class letter delivery than it does from an overnight international courier service. Of course not.

And yet...

A quick analysis of the top 100 titles on Amazon (movies, books, music, doesn't matter what) shows zero correlation between the price and the reviews. (I didn't do the math, but you're welcome to... might be a good science fair entry). Try to imagine a similar disconnect if the subject was cars or clothing...

For any other good or service, the value of a free alternative that was any good would be infinite--free airplane tickets, free dinners at the cafe... When it comes to content, though, we rarely compare the experience other content at a similar price. We compare it to perfect.

People walking out of the afternoon bargain matinee at the movies don't cut the film any slack because it was half price. Critics piling on to a music video on YouTube never mention the fact that HEY IT WAS FREE. There is no thrift store for content. Sure, we can get an old movie for ninety-nine cents, but if we hate it, it doesn't matter how cheap it was. If we're going to spend time, apparently, it better be perfect, the best there ever was, regardless of price.

This isn't true for cars, potato chips, air travel, worker's comp insurance...

Consider people walking out of a concert where tickets might be being scalped for as much as $1,000. That's $40 or more for each song played--are they considering the price when they're evaluating the experience? There's a lot of nuance here... I'm certainly not arguing that expensive is always better.

In fact, I do think it's probably true that a low price increases the negative feedback. That's because a low price exposes the work to individuals that might not be raving fans.

Free is a valid marketing strategy. In fact it's almost impossible for an idea to have mass impact without some sort of free (TV, radio, webpages, online videos... they're all free). At the same time, it's not clear to me that cheaper content outperforms expensive in many areas. As the marginal cost of delivering content drops to zero (all digital content meets this definition), I think there are valid marketing reasons to do the opposite of what economists expect.

Free gets you mass. Free, though, isn't always the price that will help you achieve your goals.

Price is often a signalling mechanism, and perhaps nowhere more than in the area of content. Free enables your idea to spread, price, on the other hand, signals individuals and often ends up putting your idea in the right place. Mass shouldn't always be the goal. Impact may matter more.

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miercuri, 30 martie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Window for More Idiocy is Always Open

Posted: 30 Mar 2011 05:45 PM PDT

The Window for Idiocy is open. Then again, it always is. No matter how how many times a piss poor policy has been tried and failed, nutcases want to try it bigger and bigger, expecting different results.

Proposals to "fix" what ails Japan provide the perfect example. Please consider Japan Urged to 'Seize This Moment' or Face Another Lost Decade.

Japan begins forging a road map for recovery from its worst postwar disaster next month, a process that may determine whether it sheds the legacy of the 1980s bubble or has a third "lost decade" of stagnation and deflation.

Key to the result: whether the nation's companies end an aversion to borrowing, taking on debt to propel domestic investment and wage gains, and whether policy makers embrace a stimulus financed by Bank of Japan money creation, analysts said.

"The only time you can get things done is in moments of genuine crisis and catastrophes -- there's a small opportunity to do an extraordinary amount," Malcolm Gladwell, author of "The Tipping Point," who writes for New Yorker magazine, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "Japan -- a country whose politics were in deadlock and sluggish for many, many years -- I hope they can seize this moment and accomplish a lot."

"The window is not likely to be open for more than a few months" to set a "bold" course of action that changes the economy's direction, said Robert Feldman, head of Japan economic research at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. Feldman's bold scenario envisages 40 trillion yen of total new spending, with no tax increases and 50 percent financing by the BOJ.

Because Japan is already in deflation, the risk of monetizing the debt is low, according to some analysts. Consumer prices, excluding fresh food, haven't sustained a 1 percent increase in sequential years since the early 1990s. BOJ board members identify stable prices as an inflation rate of around 1 percent.

Borrowing as a percentage of assets slid to an average of 43.7 percent last decade from 69 percent in the 1990s as companies de-leveraged. The figure stood at 42 percent at the end of March 2010, the most recent BOJ data available. Willingness to borrow again may help propel growth, said Richard Koo at the Nomura Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo.

"There's been a debt-rejection syndrome, and we needed a shock to get out of it -- this may actually do it," said Koo, chief economist at the research arm of Japan's biggest brokerage. "Companies will have to borrow money because they've got to get themselves back in production."

"The instincts of the DPJ are on the cautious side; however, the DPJ is also practical, and realizes that it must support the economy and economic revival," said Feldman, who has analyzed Japan's economy since the 1980s bubble years. "After an initial period of caution, I expect a swing toward the bold scenario."

"The window is not likely to be open for more than a few months" says Robert Feldman. Ironically, his proposal is clear proof the window for idiotic ideas is always open.

For 20 years Japan was on a fool's mission to produce stimulus via Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus. The only thing those policies ever accomplished was to increase nation debt. Yet, Feldman wants to try again, hoping to spur inflation. When it does come, it will come in spades.

Analysts says that "Because Japan is already in deflation, the risk of monetizing the debt is low".

That is as silly as believing that home prices always go up.

The situation in Japan is so dire that if interest rates were to rise to a mere 3%, interest on the national debt would consume all revenues. That sure seems like a lot of risk to me.

At some point debt matters. I do not know when it matters, but to believe otherwise as Richard Koo, Robert Feldman, and Malcolm Gladwell proves that they have not learned a thing from history. It's really quite pathetic.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

How the CRA Fueled the Housing Bubble

Posted: 30 Mar 2011 09:47 AM PDT

President Obama wants to expand the Community Reinvestment Act. Thus it should be no surprise that a self-serving report by the Obama Administration concludes that CRA "greenlining" (forcing banks to lend to low-income neighborhoods) did not contribute to the housing bubble or the financial crisis.

Investor's Business Daily takes apart ACORN and the CRA in an editorial Community Reinvestment Act: Separating Fact From Fiction

In light of the Obama administration's stated goal of expanding the CRA, separating fact from fiction regarding this issue is of towering importance — to set the historic record straight and to prevent another financial calamity.

FICTION: Because the CRA was passed in 1977, long before the subprime crisis, it couldn't have caused the recent explosion in bad loans.

FACT: The toothless 1977 regulations fully expired in July 1997, when President Clinton rewrote them to toughen CRA enforcement as part of a crusade to close the "mortgage gap" between blacks and whites.

For the first time, banks were required to show results. One of the five performance criteria in the "lending test" — the most heavily weighted component of the CRA exam — was adopting "flexible lending practices" to address the credit needs of poor borrowers in "predominantly minority neighborhoods." Banks that didn't bend their underwriting rules risked flunking the exam.

Ex-Federal Reserve Board Gov. Lawrence Lindsey, a staunch CRA defender, acknowledges that the changes "did contribute to a downgrading of credit standards."

FICTION: "Many of these (CRA) loans were not very risky," the FCIC report claims.

FACT: Studies show that CRA loans have higher delinquencies and defaults and act as a major drag on bank earnings. In 2008, CRA loans accounted for just 7% of Bank of America's total mortgage lending, but 29% of its losses on home loans. Also, banks with the highest CRA ratings tend to have the lowest safety and soundness ratings.

FICTION: Only 6% of subprime loans were originated by banks subject to the CRA, so the vast majority of risky lending was not tied to the law.

FACT: Among other things, the figure does not count the trillions of dollars in CRA "commitments" that WaMu, BofA, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo and other large banks pledged to radical inner-city groups like Acorn, Greenlining and Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America (NACA) after they used the public comment process to protest bank merger applications on CRA grounds.

All told, they shook down banks for $4.6 trillion in such commitments before the crisis, boasts a report by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, or NCRC, the nation's top CRA lobbyist (which conveniently removed the report from its website during the FCIC hearings).

FICTION: "These loans performed well," the FCIC report maintained.

FACT: Brookings found that the loan commitments were set aside for low-income minorities with "marginal credit scores" and posed a higher risk. They were even riskier than regular CRA loans, because the banks delegated underwriting authority to the nonprofit shakedown groups, which had no experience judging credit risk.

NACA thinks traditional underwriting standards are "patronizing and racist." It advertises that anyone — "regardless of how bad your credit is" — can qualify for the mortgages it's arranged through special deals with banks. Not surprisingly, one study found that its delinquency rates were eight times higher than the national average.

Banks reported delinquency rates ranging from 5% to 50% on loans made pursuant to their merger-related commitments.

Yet the FCIC refused to investigate the more than 300 CRA agreements that banks and community organizers entered into before the subprime bubble burst.

Despite repeated requests by Commissioner Peter Wallison, the panel never examined the performance of the trillions in loan commitments.

Why would Chairman Angelides steer blame away from the CRA? Because he's a big fan of the CRA. And as California state treasurer, from 1999 to 2007, he steered billions in state funds into unsafe CRA mortgages securitized by Freddie Mac.

At the time, Greenlining advised Angelides on where to invest California state funds, even providing him with its own CRA report card on "good" and "bad" banks. He has also personally benefited from CRA projects brokered by his real estate development firms, according to "The Great American Bank Robbery."

As part of the CRA racket, Angelides should have been a witness in the crisis investigation, not its chief inquisitor. With the cover-up complete, he now hopes that CRA critics will go away.

"The debate about the role of the CRA should now be over as evidence presented in the commission's report is clear," Angelides declared earlier this month.

Sorry, sir, but the debate will end when the public has all the facts, not just your cooked report.

The CRA certainly did not cause the financial crisis. However, it did contribute to it.

Ironically, the very same people who insisted money be lent to people who could not afford houses are the very same people now bitching about those same "predatory loans".

Forcing banks to lend money is a piss poor idea. Piss poor loans help neither the lender nor the borrower. Yet, those who added fuel to the housing bubble have now whitewashed their role in the affair and beg for still more funds.

President Obama want to expand the CRA. Instead it should be added to the scrap heap of history along with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, HAMP, and thousands of affordable home programs all of which did anything but make homes affordable.

Now that home prices are falling, one might think the affordable home advocates would be happy. They are not. The hypocrites now want to prop up home prices on the belief that falling home prices hurt neighborhoods.

When dealing with misguided activists and self-serving fools you simply cannot win.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

joi, 31 martie 2011

Gas Prices

Advise the Advisor: Secretary Chu on Energy Policy

Facebook vs Twitter: Which is More Valuable? Graywolf's SEO Blog

Facebook vs Twitter: Which is More Valuable? Graywolf's SEO Blog

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Seth's Blog : Compared to perfect: the price/value mismatch in content

Compared to perfect: the price/value mismatch in content

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miercuri, 30 martie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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