vineri, 15 aprilie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


How to Make SEO Happen - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 14 Apr 2011 02:09 PM PDT

Posted by Aaron Wheeler

 Sure, you know SEO like you know the back of your hand. You know how to linkbuild, and you know how to do keyword research. Of course you've got a lot of SEO knowledge - you've been watching these Whiteboard Fridays every week, right? =P Well, now it's time to get crackin'! Unfortunately, it feels like you never have enough time to get done all the things you know you should do. Maybe the people in charge aren't willing to do the things you know they need to do to get positive results, or maybe you can't implement all the changes you'd like to in the short time you have because you're too busy building an encyclopaedic report for your client. There's a lot of ways to make SEO not happen for your client's site, but this week, Tom Critchlow from Distilled will show you how to avoid stagnation and keep the SEO ball rolling!

 

Video Transcription

Howdy, SEOmoz fans. Welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. I'm Tom Critchlow. I'm currently here in Seattle helping SEOmoz with a few various bits and pieces, and today I'm going to be talking about how to make SEO happen.

So, very common in the SEO industry, and actually across all kinds of consulting, I hear a common complaint, which is I know what to do, I know what the SEO technique is, I know maybe I need more links, maybe I need to change something on the site. Figuring out the problem and solution is not the hard part. The hard part is getting stuff done. Today I am going to talk through a few tips about how to actually translate from knowing the answer to actually making the answer a reality. So, let's start straight in.

Number one, no more reports. This is my biggest bugbear with SEO consulting. I see this all the time from other agencies, lone SEOs, in-house SEOs. I see it all the time. Big, lengthy, you know 50 to 100 page reports. I'm really not a big fan.

Here at Distilled we try really hard to keep all of our reports really, really short. That is something that I really try to instigate in everyone that I teach within Distilled, because a long report isn't getting things done. Right? Like, you'll send across a report. It will be 100 pages, and you'll think, yes, this is a great report. You send it through to your client. They're probably not going to read it. Reports don't actually help get stuff done. So, instead of sending a lengthy report, consider the two primary functions in my eyes for what a report does.

There are two things. A report needs to convince somebody to do something, and it needs to tell them how to actually get it done. In my eyes, when you send a report through that is 50 pages or 100 pages, you are very often confusing the two. So, really, to convince somebody to make change happen, you only need one page or maybe you need a phone call or maybe you need a meeting. Let's say it is a whole bunch of on-page changes and you say I'm going to need a huge amount of developer time to get all these changes done. You go to the marketing director or the marketing boss or whoever it is that you report to, and you go, "I need to get this stuff done." And they go, "Why?" So, you need to answer that question. But you don't need 100-page report to answer that question. So, make sure that you convince whoever the stakeholder is, independently of the report, that this change needs to happen, and then as a secondary function, you need to actually make that change happen. But that change is often, like, go work with the developer team or go and have lunch with the guy who runs the developer team or actually go in and do the change yourself on the site.

Whatever it might be that it takes to get it done, focus on that separately from the big report. Sometimes, yes, you do need to spec things out. You need to go in and you need to say, "Well, actually, all these pages need these keywords changing, or the information architecture needs to look like this." There are things that you need to put down in writing, particularly for developers when you need a tight spec, but don't confuse that with what a lot of consultants will do, which is sending through a big report that has both some justification in it and some nitty-gritty technical details. Try to divorce those two things so you have the convincing separately to the doing. Just generally, write less reports. Just make stuff happen.

Secondly, processes. I see this a lot again in reports that people send out and in consulting and SEO recommendations, even in blog posts. I see people saying, well, you should do X. But there is very little explanation as to how a particular company or a particular website will actually go about doing X. For example, guest posting. Let's say that you put in a report, "Guest posting would be a great way of building links for your niche." I have seen this kind of thing in plenty of reports. But that is not actionable. How does the client actually take that recommendation, and how do they turn that into actually doing guest posting?

Well, the key lies in processes. When you're doing consulting, when you're trying to get things done, processes are at the heart of everything a business does. If you want to make something happen that isn't already happening, you need a new process, or if there is an existing process, you might need to modify that process to make it SEO friendly or make it happen in a particular way.

The key to coming up with processes and improving processes is to understand what the existing processes are. So, if you go into a business or you're consulting for a website or maybe even if you are in-house, understand how things work currently. If you don't understand how things are working, how on earth can you go in and recommend changes or say you should be doing this or you should be doing that. If you don't understand how things are working, you're going to fail.

When you are putting forth your recommendation, try not to frame things as, "Go and do guest posting." That's not an actionable thing. Instead, try to frame things as, "Here is a process for guest posting that is tailored for you." That might involve understanding who is going to do it. Do they have the staff? Do they need to hire more staff? Are there existing people who could take on the task within their existing roles? How are they going to do it? Are the people who are going to do it trained? Do they have the skills? Do they have the tools? Is other tracking in place? How much? Should there be five people doing this all day long? Should it be part of one person's job? So, understanding these three things will really help you get closer to getting things done. Okay. Now switch over here now.

Number three, pre-deliver. So, when you are doing consulting or when you are trying to get SEO changes to happen, there's a big tendency I think to, you want to go away. You want to work in a dark room for days or weeks or months, and then you want to come back and you want to go, "Tada!" I've just made this amazing thing or I have just built this big report for you, and here's what needs to happen. The problem is if the person you are presenting it to, they're seeing it fresh for the first time, then it's a surprise to them, and surprises don't equal getting things done. So, instead, consider pre-delivering what you're going to be recommending. So say, "I need some time to figure out exactly what the information architecture looks like, but you can be sure that there are going to be some information architecture improvements or changes." That will give the person that you are reporting to, or the person that you need to convince to make change happen, that will give them the time to prepare. They'll be like, "Okay, great. Well, we've got a new version of the website going live in three months. We'll need the spec from you by the end of this month." Great. So, now you have a time frame. Now you have a framework within which to work.

There is a very natural tendency, I think, with human beings to want to kind of make things absolutely crystal right before you release it, before you let your baby be seen by other people. But actually, in reality, in the business world, you want to pre-deliver. You want to overcommunicate with people and say, "This is what I am thinking of changing. Is that okay? Does that fit with you? Are you able to make that change?" Again, understanding either the client or internal resources. Understanding how much developer time they have will be a great framework for your recommendations.

Number four, communication. So, I have written a quote on here which is that, "Change happens when people like you," which is a fantastic quote that I got from a management consultant who came in and helped do some training for Distilled. It is so true. You think of businesses as these cold, hard, rational entities, and they're just not. Businesses are run by people like you and me. Well, maybe not like me or you. But anyway, businesses are run by people, okay. So, if you want to make change happen, you have to make people like you. So, take people out for lunch. Be nice to them. Socialize with people. Pick up the phone to people. Speak to them. E-mails are a very cold form of communication. Instead, try and build a rapport with people. Again, whether in-house or in agency, just make people like you. Make people understand where you're coming from, understand why you're doing what you're doing. If people don't value or understand why you're doing something, they are far less likely to actually make that change happen.

So, make people like you, and face-to-face meetings are crucial to this. I think, again, whether you are in-house or agency side, face-to-face meetings and beers and lunch, all of that will actually make change happen, because when people meet you face to face, they are so much nicer, they are so much warmer, and you're so much more able to actually convince them that what you are recommending or what you are working on is important to them.

There is a favorite saying within Distilled, which is that communication solves all problems. So, if you are ever stuck with the question of how to make SEO happen, think about communicating with somebody. Whether it is somebody on your team, whether it's your boss, whether it's the client, whoever it is, communicate with somebody, and that's how change will get done. Don't write a 50-page report.

All right. Thanks guys.

Video transcription by SpeechPad.com


Do you like this post? Yes No

Your Taxpayer Receipt


The White House, Washington


Good afternoon,

Have you ever wondered how much of your own tax dollars actually go to support foreign aid? To support education? Well, now you can find out – and you might be surprised.

In his State of the Union Address, President Obama promised that this year, for the first time, American taxpayers would be able to go online and see exactly how their federal tax dollars are spent.

So today, we’re announcing the first-ever federal taxpayer receipt. Check it out:

Just enter a few pieces of information about your taxes, and the taxpayer receipt will give you a breakdown of how your tax dollars are spent on priorities like education, veteran’s benefits, or health care.

Sincerely,

David Plouffe
Senior Advisor to the President

P.S. In case you missed it, be sure to check out President Obama’s speech laying out his plan to reduce our deficit by $4 trillion over the next twelve years:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/fiscal-framework

 




 
This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com.
Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

 

 

How to Make Your Website Look More Legitimate Graywolf's SEO Blog

How to Make Your Website Look More Legitimate Graywolf's SEO Blog


How to Make Your Website Look More Legitimate

Posted: 14 Apr 2011 08:26 AM PDT

Post image for How to Make Your Website Look More Legitimate

In the most recent 12 months, Google has taken steps to reward websites that are brands, or at least give signals that they algorithmically look like brands. If you’re not national, regional, or local brand, here are some steps you can do to look more brand-like.

Get a Real Address

… if you’re going to put your eggs in one basket, it better be one you’re holding–not Facebook…
I’ve written about Google giving a bonus to websites that had a matching real world address on their website and Whois information. While the example mentioned in that article doesn’t rank as well as it did, it does still rank in the top 50 without any geotargeted inbound anchor text. IMHO having and using a real world address is still an important signal. A post office box isn’t going to cut it: you’ll need a real world street address. If you work out of your home, I understand not wanting to publish that. In that case, investigate using a UPS Store, Regus Business Center, or other local mailbox rental service. I’ve seen them charge as low as $50 a year in some places and as high as $1,000 in others, so shop around. Make sure there is some way for the mail to reach you if anything important gets delivered. Most places will “process” the mail for you for an additional fee. For bonus points, get a local phone number.

Website Boiler Plate Pages

Does your website have pages for about us, contact us, privacy, terms of service, disclaimer and other boiler plate pages? People look to see that that they are there and may glance at them to see if you are legit. They don’t want to see the page say “paste your privacy policy here“. If you’ve got a budget, having those pages custom written is never going to hurt you. If you are bootstrapping, use one of the online privacy policy or terms of service generators. Uniquify them by adding your company name, website name, and physical address in them. Personally I keep those pages out of the index with robots “follow,noindex” and the noindex protocol in my robots page, but that’s ’cause I’m anal and OCD about indexing, not because I’m trying to control the flow of pagerank or do any link sculpting.

Press Releases, Press and Media Kits

Hopefully your website is doing press worthy things on a regular basis. Hopefully you’re issuing press releases about those activities as well. Don’t worry about which press release services pass the most link juice, just be concerned about the citation and the secondary links that come from you actually doing something link worthy. Make sure you include that real world address and phone number too.

Do you have a press page and media kit? Wendy Piersall, aka eMom, recently tweeted about a really good press kit she came across. I agree that was a nice press kit. But, while it’s not something you need to launch a website, you should have one soon after launch. Chances are good that it will be a PDF, so make sure it has active links and that real world address and phone number matches your information.

Logo and Design

Having a professional logo and design go a long way toward instilling trust in your website visitors. I’m a big fan of thesis (see thesis theme review) and there are lots of thesis designers who can take an out of the box thesis framework and give it a unique, non-thesis look. Again these may not be day 1 expenses, but they are 6-12 month must haves.

Getting a professionally designed logo can run several hundred to thousands of dollars. If it’s in the budget, you might consider it. If your budget is a bit tighter, try a service like 99designs. You can run contests or choose from a wide variety of readily available logos that can be customized for a nominal fee. If you really love the design, you can pay more to get exclusive use of the logo. That’s your call. Personally I choose a design that has a square element that can be easily converted into a favicon. Make sure you make a transparent version of your logo available for people who want to use when they write about you. I’d also have a series of images optimized for your product, images, or location (see building links with creative commons images).

Social Media Profiles

If you still think social media is only a fad, you need to get your head out of the sand and step into reality. At the bare minimum, you should have an active presence on Twitter and Facebook and update them regularly. I’m not saying that you should let Facebook replace your company’s official website. If you’re going to put your eggs in one basket, it better be one you’re holding–not Facebook. Use them as satellite programs as part of your outbound marketing campaign. If you have the resources, and it’s a good match, use LinkedIn and YouTube as well. I also suggest using a service like KnowEm to protect your intellectual properties and trademarks across hundreds of platforms.

8th Grade Teacher Test

Hopefully you had your own Sister Miriam in your life who challenged you to be the best you that you could be…
I went to Catholic School. I know–that explains a lot. My math teacher had been around as teacher for a while. In fact, she was actually one of my friend’s mom’s teachers when she was in school. Sister Miriam was a tough cookie to please. If you were REALLY trying, she would cut you some slack. However, if you were a slacker trying to pull one over on her and trying to take advantage of her kindness, she was merciless. She had been around a while, and she had seen every scam that students ever tried to pull to get out of doing work and not live up to their potential. Let’s just say I spent a lot of time in “detention,” and Sister Miriam took an interest in me. She had figured out quite correctly that I was a smart kid who was able to get by without really trying, and that just didn’t sit well with her. Her message didn’t get through then, but I do admire her for trying to get me to actually give a damn about making something out of myself. It may have taken a few years but I learned the lesson and appreciate the effort she took trying to straighten out an angry, mixed up, know it all punk kid. Hopefully you had your own Sister Miriam in your life who challenged you to be the best you that you could be. If Sister Miriam saw your website, would she believe you were legit? Or would she look down at you over a wrinkled nose and bifocals, knowing you took short cuts and tried to pull a fast one over on her? Does your website pass the sniff test? Would you give your credit card number to the site and be reasonably confident it wouldn’t come back to bite you in the butt? If your child was sick, would you trust the information on this website enough to use it?

So what are the takeaways from this post:

  • Get yourself a real world address and phone number, then use it everywhere.
  • Get yourself the boiler plate privacy, about us, and other associated pages.
  • Make sure you are doing press worthy activities and issuing regular press releases.
  • Get a media kit, make it look really professional and embed links to web content.
  • Get a professional looking logo, then use it consistently in your favicon and social media profiles.
  • Secure your social media profiles and support as many as you can. Do one thing well instead of four things half-heartedly.
  • Make it easy for others to use and share your logo.
  • Make sure your website passes the sniff test and instills a sense of confidence and trust, not just an I-showed-up-but-I’m-napping-in-the-back-of-class feeling.
tla starter kit

Related posts:

  1. Website Informational Pages Now that I’ve covered long term content and short term...
  2. How To Silo Your Website: The Masthead One of the more powerful tools an SEO can use...
  3. How To Get Customer Reviews on Your Website While UGC and Reviews can often be a mixed blessing,...
  4. How To Silo Your Website: The Breadcrumb Trail In Part 1 we looked at How To Silo Your...
  5. How To Silo Your Website:The Sidebar The following post is part of a series on How...

Advertisers:

  1. Text Link Ads - New customers can get $100 in free text links.
  2. BOTW.org - Get a premier listing in the internet's oldest directory.
  3. Ezilon.com Regional Directory - Check to see if your website is listed!
  4. Directory Journal - Get permanent deep links in a search engine friendly directory
  5. Glass Whiteboards - For a professional durable white board with no ghosting, streaking or marker stains, see my Glass Whiteboard Review
  6. Need an SEO Audit for your website, look at my SEO Consulting Services
  7. Link Building- Backlink Build offers 45 PR5+ Backlinks for $295
  8. KnowEm - Protect your brand, product or company name with a continually growing list of social media sites.
  9. Links From PR9 Sites - - Get In Top 3 Google ASAP
  10. Scribe SEO Review find out how to better optimize your wordpress posts.
  11. TigerTech - Great Web Hosting service at a great price.
  12. What Motivates You - what makes you want to get up and be successful

This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis Wordpress Theme review.

How to Make Your Website Look More Legitimate

West Wing Week: "Open for Business"

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, April 15, 2011
 

West Wing Week: "Open for Business"

West Wing Week is your guide to everything that's happening at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. This week, with the threat of a government shutdown averted, President Obama focused on fiscal responsibility and balancing the need to cut spending and the deficit while continuing to support education, clean energy, and other investments needed to win the future. The Amir of Qatar also visited the White House.

Watch the video.

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Your Taxpayer Receipt
The White House announces the first-ever federal taxpayer receipt. Find out how your tax dollars are spent.

Remarks by the President before Meeting with Fiscal Commission Chairmen
President Obama delivers brief remarks before meeting with fiscal commission chairs Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson.

Repealing the 1099 Reporting Requirement: A Big Win for Small Business
Karen Mills, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, discusses the benefits of the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s 1099 reporting requirements that President Obama signed into law.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

12:55 PM: The President departs Chicago, Illinois en route Andrews Air Force Base

1:00 PM: The Vice President meets with Director of the Office of Management and Budget Jacob Lew, Director of the National Economic Council Gene Sperling, and senior advisors to discuss fiscal policy

2:35 PM: The Vice President meets with Director of the Office of Management and Budget Jacob Lew, Director of the National Economic Council Gene Sperling, and senior advisors to discuss fiscal policy

2:50 PM: The President arrives at the White House

3:20 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with leadership of the National Conference of State Legislators

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates events that will be live streamed on White House.com/Live

Get Updates

Sign Up for the Daily Snapshot 

Stay Connected 

This email was sent to Email Address
Manage Subscriptions for Email Address
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe Email Address | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111 
    
 

 

 
  

 

Seth's Blog : Buying an education or buying a brand?

Buying an education or buying a brand?

It's reported that student debt in the USA is approaching a trillion dollars, five times what it was ten years ago.

Are those in debt buying more education or are they seeking better branding in the form of coveted diplomas?

Does a $40,000 a year education that comes with an elite degree deliver ten times the education of a cheaper but no less rigorous self-generated approach assembled from less famous institutions and free or inexpensive resources?

If not, then the money is actually being spent on the value of the degree, on the doors it will open and the jobs it will snag. If this marketing strategy works big, it pays for itself in no time.

A marketing tactic might move the dial, but that doesn't mean it's always worth the money.

The question is whether a trillion dollars is the right amount for individuals to spend marketing themselves. What would happen if people spent it building up a work history instead? On becoming smarter, more flexible, more self-sufficient and yes, able to take more risk because they owe less money...

There's no doubt that we need smarter and more motivated people in our organizations. I'm not sure we need them to be better labeled or more accredited.

 
Email to a friend

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.


Click here to safely unsubscribe now from "Seth's Blog" or change your subscription, view mailing archives or subscribe

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

joi, 14 aprilie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Appalling Suggestions by California Teachers' Association Would Make Students Political Pawns for Union's Greedy Coercion Efforts; "Brain Dead" CTA

Posted: 14 Apr 2011 03:54 PM PDT

Leave it to the California Teachers' Association to prove without a doubt they will do anything to get their greedy ways. CTA suggested tactics include making students political and personal pawns of teachers' by handing out assignments for kids to draw on photos of state legislature members.

Please consider Calif. Teachers Union Gives Shocking Protest Instructions: Harass Legislators, Shut Down Roads, Co-Opt Fire Drills
The California Teachers Association is planning a week's worth of Wisconsin-style protests and rallies, from May 9-13, to "force legislature to pass tax extensions."

That's the short term objective of the "State of Emergency" protests, according to the website for the rallies. The longterm objective is to, "educate and convince communities to change tax structure and achieve tax fairness in order to achieve adequate, stable and ongoing funding for public education and essential public services."
Please see the article for more details. Inquiring minds may also be interested in seeing the 10-page State of Emergency Action Items by the California Teachers' Association.

Galling Proposals

  • Take ½ photo of Assembly members and have kids draw the other half with a message stating what they want for their teachers.
  • Moment of silence for every teacher RIF'd
  • Encourage college students to wear gray for the entire week – especially during finals week to mark the slow death of higher education
  • Student Video Contest: Have contest for youth to create a video about what education costs would mean to them


State of Emergency

Yes there is a "state of emergency". The emergency is the California Teachers' Association is brain dead, uncaring, and greedy beyond belief. You have to be brain dead or greedy to make kids political pawns in an effort to coerce money out of taxpayers.

Time and time again teachers' unions step up to the plate an hit balls out of the park when it comes to proving how greedy they are and how little they care for the kids.

One additional proposal was "Work to the Contract" everyone would do ONLY what they are supposed to do according to the contract.

Brilliant!

Teachers feel kids are short-changed so they want to guarantee it stays that way. This is additional proof (not that any is needed) union recommendations are entirely about the self-serving desires of teachers, and not about the kids at all.

Teachers should teach, not get kids involved in their own personal, political, and self-serving pet peeves.

Any teacher who tries any of the actions I mentioned above should be fired on the spot.

Unfortunately it is impossible to fire any teacher over this. In fact, it is impossible to fire teachers for blatant incompetence and it is even impossible to fire teachers for sexual misconduct. Union rules prohibit it.

Strong actions are needed to remedy this otherwise hopeless situation.

Strong Actions Needed

  • Pass national right-to-work laws
  • Scrap Davis-Bacon and other prevailing wage laws
  • Remove all collective bargaining powers of public unions

By that score, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker fell far short of what needs to happen. Nonetheless, I commend Walker for taking a huge step forward. Senator Rand Paul and Congressman Ron Paul need to carry forward with national right-to-work laws and the scrapping of Davis-Bacon.

Note that under the above proposals, unions could still exist, but cities and states would not have to bargain with them.

Collective Bargaining is Slavery

Forced collective bargaining is nothing more than slavery. I have made the case and will continue to repeat the case until it sinks in.

For details please see


One thing we have going for us is that asininity proposed by the California Teachers' Association is bound to upset a lot of people who do not want their kids politically brainwashed by greedy teachers for the self-serving agenda of the teachers' unions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Greek 10-Year Government Bond Yield Exceeds 13% First Time, Portuguese Yield Approaches 9%; Credit Default Swaps US vs. Europe

Posted: 14 Apr 2011 10:53 AM PDT

Greek and Portuguese Euro-based sovereign debt yields hit new highs today with the Greek 10-Year sovereign bond yield topping 13% for the first time in the history of the Euro.

Greece 10-Year Yield 13.27%



Portugal 10-Year Yield 8.88%



5-Year Credit Default Swaps US vs. Europe

Here is an interesting chart from Chris Puplava at PFS Group (Financial Sense) comparing default risk in the US vs Europe.



click on chart for sharper image

Note that government default risk is higher than corporate risk in Europe. The opposite is true in the US.

The market clearly believes there is risk of default on Portuguese and Greek government bonds and so do I.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Recession by End of Year?

Posted: 14 Apr 2011 01:03 AM PDT

John Taylor, CEO of FX Concepts, a currency trading firm with $8 billion under management says "We'll be in a recession by the end of the year. Three reasons: QE2 will end, Republicans are running the House, and the price of gas is heading up."

Video



Taylor also takes a look at global currency programs in foreign exchanges and he also discusses the problems facing the ECB.

Here is a link to the Taylor video if the above frame does not play.

Eurozone Interest Rates

Taylor thinks interest rates should be 5% in Germany and 0% in Greece but that is impossible. I don't know where they should be because rates should be set by the free market not a bunch of central planners. Moreover, it was government bureaucrats not the free market that created an EU currency union with no fiscal controls on individual countries..

I believe there is no correct solution as to where rates should be. Some countries will be on the short end of the stick regardless of what the ECB does.

Recession Odds Depend on Definition

If one defines a recession as measured by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP it is possible but highly unlikely. Taylor does think we see two consecutive quarters of negative growth. On that I disagree.

However, the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, does not define recessions that way. The NBER looks at a range of factors and pegged the last recession as starting in November 2007, well before there were two quarters of negative growth.

Regardless, I think a significant global slowdown is coming and a reasonable chance we see a recession in 2012 heading smack into the next presidential election.

Those waiting for a fully inverted yield curve signal or even a 2-year treasury inversion with the 10-year treasury will not get a signal because the Fed has the short-end of the curve artificially pegged at zero percent while the long-end of the curve is pressured by huge budget deficits.

However, we could see inversion on parts of the curve. For example 2-year treasuries could invert with 3-year treasuries, 5-year treasuries with 7-year treasuries, or 7-year treasuries with 10-year treasuries. The current spreads are 53 basis points, 32 basis points, and 61 basis points respectively. The one to watch closely is the 5-year to 7-year spread.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List