marți, 21 iunie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


6 Essential PPC Landing Page Optimizations

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 03:28 AM PDT

Posted by salario

Your landing pages aren't converting. Sadly, this is not your customer's fault. It's your job to tell your customers why your product is awesome and you have fewer than five seconds to tell that story.

Regardless of whether you're a rookie or veteran marketer, we've assembled the following checklist to help you avoid some of the common pitfalls we see all too often with pay-per-click landing pages. The hope being that you can take some of the recommendations into consideration before you go live with AdWords campaigns of your own.

1) Pre-Populate Cursor – Does your landing page have a form field you want customers to fill out? If it does, a great way to reduce friction, and increase conversion rate, is to pre-populate the cursor into the first field. This might sound like a nit, but in all the tests I've seen run, this seemingly slight difference has had a significant impact on conversion rates. A great example of this in the wild is what eHouseOffers does with their sign up page.

2) Eye Contact – You're driving northbound on I-5 (or whatever interstate you drive in your hometown) and there's an accident in the southbound HOV lane. What do you do? You probably turn your head and look at what everyone else is looking at. This seemingly obvious piece of human behavior is something you shouldn't forget to talk to your designer about on your landing pages.

What do I mean? Well, the concept is simple. Think of it as the "Look at what other people are looking at" principle, but essentially what it means is that people will tend to look where the subjects in your hero graphic look, not necessarily at your ad creative.


http://usableworld.com.au/2009/03/16/you-look-where-they-look/

As the above heatmap shows, landing pages are no different from highway accidents: you look where other people are looking. So, if you have a landing page creative with people in them, why not take a page out of what PayPal does with their landing pages and have your subjects look in the directions of your call to action?

3) Testimonials – Another tactic that is incredibly effective is including customer testimonials on your landing page. There's really no better way to build trust with prospective customers than to have existing customers sing your praises. And though you don't necessarily have to do what Sono Bello Body Contouring does and include the testimonial in the header of your site, you should include testimonials somewhere on your landing page - possibly in the sidebar.

4) Point of Action Assurances – It'd be impossible to create a landing page checklist without referencing Bryan Eisenberg, who was truly one of the first real conversion rate gurus. One of the best tips Eisenberg gives in his book Always be Testing is around the importance of putting trust icons, or "point of action assurances" as he calls them, next to your call-to-action buttons. Put another way, if you put trust icons next to your submit buttons more people will click on them. One of many examples of this principle in action is what Provent Therapy does on their sleep apnea treatment landing pages.

And bizarre as it sounds, it is important that these trust icons, which can vary from McAfee Secure logos, to Visa logos, to industry awards, are as close to your call-to-action buttons as possible. Why? Well, because customers will notice these symbols and feel at ease. Strange as it sounds these logos will in fact reinforce trust and increase conversion rates.

5) Match Headline with Intent – Not to be forgotten when considering landing page optimization is Google AdWords quality score. Having a high quality score will not only decrease your cost-per-click, it will also help reduce overall acquisition costs

And though quality score is comprised of many parts - including keyword relevance and ad copy - you should always make sure you're getting the most from the headline of your landing page. Specifically, once visitors get to your landing pages, you should make sure you remind them that the site they've landing on is in fact exactly what they a) searched for and b) clicked on in your ad.

One startup out of San Francisco who really gets this, and who has seen some early wins from creating targeted landing pages is Red Beacon, which is a site who recently won the TechCrunch 50 that's dedicated to connecting consumers with service professionals.

6) Drive a Single Call-to-Action – One of the most common mistakes we see is people trying to do too much with their landing pages. If you ask visitors to do 55 things, odds are they'll bounce instantaneously. However, if you focus on driving a single action, you're likely to get people to take the action you want.

And even though from hosted exchange to great SEO books there's no shortage of sites who implement great simple landing pages, the concept is not to be forgotten. Pick something simple and drive people to take that single action. With landing pages the old adage is incredibly true: less really is more.

Ultimately, there is no one size fits all landing page. There are many approaches you can take and some useful gallery sites to get design ideas from, but there's no substitute for understanding the principles of conversion rate optimization and working with a talented designer to give you exactly what you're looking for.

And though this is not an exhaustive landing page checklist, hopefully the above examples provide a useful overview of some of the key principles you can apply to your landing pages before you throw too much ad spend at sub-optimal, poorly converting creatives.


Do you like this post? Yes No

Google's Un-Personalized Search. Tools to Hack the Code.

Posted: 20 Jun 2011 03:49 PM PDT

Posted by Cyrus Shepard

Google’s personalized search means nearly every result returned within a browser is altered one way or another. It’s rare that two different people on Earth ever see the exact same set of search results.

And Google made sure it’s darned hard to turn off.

The rise of personalization has created both winners and losers in the Internet world.

  • Netflix recommends movies that it predicts I will like. They claim 85% accuracy within half a star. My experience suggests lower.
  • Amazon does a great job of suggesting books for me based on what others have purchased.
  • Facebook updates our News Feeds only with friends they think we want to interact with. Result: I miss my old friends.

The ubiquitous nature of Google creates a real risk of limiting our worldview. Every new search result starts to look like the search before. Our ideas become isolated and homogenized, like exclusively watching only Fox News or MSNBC, while refusing to consider CNN.

As a search marketer, this is particularly vexing when explaining the situation to clients, who often don’t realize that Google personalizes their results. An exchange about rankings often goes like this:

Personalized Search Results

Created with Stripgenerator

There are times when personalization and localization work well, such as when I’m looking for a pizza restaurant in Seattle. The maddening part is, what if I want to turn it off? There are times when I want unbiased results not based on:

  • My past search history
  • My location
  • What my social circle has shared

I can’t imagine Google founder Larry Page surfing the web all day with personalized search on. Otherwise, he’d never understand how his own search engine performs.

Hey Google, where is the off button?

1. The Google Solution

Forget the Google solution. It requires too much effort and renders other Google services useless.

To un-personalize results, Google’s outdated instructions require you to perform a inane combination of tasks including:

  • Logging out of your account
  • Deleting your search history and/or
  • Clearing your cookies

Using this method, you can’t use other services like Gmail or Calendar without logging back in first. The alternative is no better. Who wants to delete their entire search history? Even then, Google auto-detects your location and serves up localized results. Oh, and you can’t turn this off. More on this later.

The “simple” Google solution is to type &pws=0 at the end of your search query, which turns off personalization. This method has the disadvantage of being time consuming and, for beginners, difficult to remember.

2. Yoast Search Plugins

Perhaps the most elegant and simple of solutions, the Yoast collection of search plugins works in both Firefox and Internet Explorer. Installation is a snap and each plugin adds “&pws=0” to the end of each Google search query URL automatically.

Yoast Plugin

Yoast offers a variety of search options, including plugins for different countries and ones that return results for the past 24 hours.

3. SEOmoz MozBar

Yes, it's our own creation. The free SEOmoz toolbar for Firefox does a bang-up job of showing non-personalized results. The extra cool thing about this toolbar is how you can create multiple custom search profiles that target country, region or city level searches.

Mozbar Serp OverlayMozbar

 

If you’re interested in the other 101 functions the MozBar can perform, watch a quick video and download it here.

4. Google Global

This quick and easy extension/add-on for Firefox and Chrome de-personalizes search results while creating custom profiles as hyper-local as zip codes and IP addresses! (Go 90120) Download it here.

Google Global

5. Roll Your Own

If you don’t like what you see here so far, both Chrome and Firefox make it easy to build your own search profile. To be fair, Chrome makes it a lot easier. Rob Oubsey wrote an excellent post on how to set this up. His instructions are clear and useful.

I spent part of a weekend evening learning how to make search plugins for Firefox. The fun here is adding your own name and image.

Search Bar

6. Bonus Points: Dealing with Localization

In truth, you can’t remove localization from Google’s search results. But you can make your local area very, very large.

Google allows you to set your search area as large as a country. By default, I set mine for the United States to remove any local bias that creeps into my results. The results help me see the broader picture.

Pizza in United States

My only wish is that Google allowed us to set our local setting to “Earth.”

It’s coming, my friends. Mark my words.


Do you like this post? Yes No

LEDs in North Carolina, Solar Panels in California

The White House Tuesday, June 21, 2011
 


Last week, the President traveled to Durham, NC to meet with his Jobs and Competitiveness Council at the corporate and U.S. manufacturing headquarters of Cree, a leading manufacturer of energy efficient LED lighting. The President toured Cree’s manufacturing facility and highlighted Cree as an example of leading the clean energy revolution as well as the comeback in American manufacturing.

And on Friday, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, California Governor Jerry Brown and Bureau of Land Management Director Bob Abbey participated in a groundbreaking ceremony for the Blythe Solar Power Project, the world’s largest solar energy project to be built on public lands.



President Barack Obama tours the manufacturing facilities at Cree, Inc., a leading manufacturer of energy efficient LED lighting, in Durham, N.C. June 13, 2011. With the Presient are: Chuck Swoboda, Chairman and CEO of Cree, Inc., left, and Matthew Rose, Chairman and CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, right. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

White House Highlights

Manufacturing Our Nation's Clean Energy Future
June 20, 2010
CEQ Chair Nancy Sutley travels to the Brooklyn Navy Yard to visit IceStone, a small manufacturer that creates countertops and surfaces from 100 percent recycled glass, diverting hundreds of tons of glass from landfills each year.

From General Mechanics to General Motors: Lynn Gantt's EcoCAR Experience
June 17, 2011
EcoCar Challenge helps bring innovative talent like Lynn Gantt and his team, the Hybrid Electric Vehicle Team of Virginia Tech, to the forefront of the clean energy jobs movement.

Investing in America’s New Energy Frontier
June 17, 2011
Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar honors the world's largest solar project based in California, which both creates jobs and harnesses green technology, as a historic moment in America's renewable energy frontier.

There Ought to Be An Environmental App for That!
June 17, 2011
EPA is launching an effort called the Apps for the Environment Challenge that encourages private software developers to make smart phone Apps that use EPA’s data to help people and communities make decisions that affect their lives.

National Transportation Week in Pictures
June 17, 2011
Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood travels to Tennessee, Nevada, and California to check out innovative projects that will make Americans safer, create good jobs for U.S. workers, and help people get where they need to go without suffering at the gas pump.

Partnership for Sustainable Communities Marks Two Trailblazing Years
June 16, 2011
The Partnership for Sustainable Communities, a collaboration between the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Department of Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency works to revitalize neighborhoods with convenient, affordable transit and clean energy.

White House Event Amps Up Grid Modernization Efforts
June 15, 2011
On Monday, the White House brought together a range of stakeholders from throughout the energy sector — including utility executives, state regulators, federal agencies, consumer advocates, technology leaders and entrepreneurs  to discuss along with Administration officials the most effective ways of upgrading our country’s electric grid.

Can Energy Efficiency Help You Get a Job?
June 14, 2011
Developing the market for building energy upgrades will attract the investment and create the jobs that will put America’s building industry to work, making American businesses more efficient and competitive.

Energy for the War Fighter: The Department of Defense Operational Energy Strategy
June 14, 2011
The Department of Defense releases the very first Operational Energy Strategy, an energy innovation plan that will decrease the demand for fuel in the U.S. military to save taxpayer dollars and safeguard the lives of our forces.

Investing in Our Communities and Creating Jobs
June 6, 2011
In Lansing, Michigan, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson announced $76 million in clean-up grants for projects to restore hundreds of abandoned and polluted sites across the country. EPA’s brownfields program has created nearly 70,000 American jobs since it started less than a decade ago.

Ocean Stewardship Built By You, For You
June 8, 2011
As part of National Oceans Month, Nancy Sutley, Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, joined Senator Harry Reid in Providence, Rhode Island to better understand the needs of our nation’s coastal communities. A diverse group of participants, including state and tribal authorities and Senator Whitehouse, spoke with Sutley about ways in which the new National Ocean Policy can help Rhode Island continue its successful ocean planning efforts.

Get Updates

Sign up for the Weekly Energy and Climate Agenda


Stay Connected

 

 
 
This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Photostream: Behind the scenes at the White House in May

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
 

Photostream: Behind the scenes at the White House in May 

The White House Photo Office just released their latest batch of behind-the-scenes photos from the last two weeks of May to our flickr photostream.

This batch includes the President and First Lady meeting the new Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, Academy Award winner Colin Firth, and the First Lady dancing with a flash mob.

Don’t miss the full photostream.



President Barack Obama and Queen Elizabeth II greet guests, including actor Colin Firth, at a dinner in honor of the Queen at Winfield House in London, England, May 25, 2011. Firth received an 2010 Academy Award for his portrayal of the Queen's father, King George VI, in The King's Speech. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

As We Start Our Journey
Tina Tchen, Chief of Staff to the First Lady, invites you to follow the First Lady's trip to Africa to engage with young African leaders.

Not a Prediction
Under the Affordable Care Act, employers will continue to offer health insurance to their workers.

Champions of Change: Honoring Fatherhood
Joshua DuBois, Executive Director of the Office of Faith-based and Neighborhood Partnerships and Co-Coordinator of the President's Fatherhood Initiative, honors the sacred role of being a dad and the impact fathers have in their own lives and in their communities.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

9:30 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:10 PM: The President meets with senior advisors

1:00 PM: The Vice President holds the next meeting of the bipartisan, bicameral group of Members of Congress to continue work on a legislative framework for comprehensive deficit reduction

1:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:00 PM: The President meets with Secretary of the Treasury Geithner

4:30 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Defense Gates

7:15 PM: The Vice President delivers remarks at the 2011 CURE Chicago Event


WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.Gov/Live


Get Updates 

Sign Up for the Daily Snapshot 

Stay Connected     

  

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111 
    
 

 

Seth's Blog : Adopt vs. adapt

Adopt vs. adapt

An early adopter seeks out new ideas and makes them work.

An adapter, on the other hand, puts up with what he has to, begrudgingly.

One is offense, the other is defense. One requires the spark of curiousity, the other is associated with fear, or at least hassle.

Hint: it's not so easy to sell to the adapt community.

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

luni, 20 iunie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Value Traps Galore (Including Financials and Berkshire); Dead Money for a Decade

Posted: 20 Jun 2011 05:33 PM PDT

"Smart Money" sees A Bargain in Berkshire Shares

A 52-week low, a long track record, and a modest valuation -- even Buffett would buy, writes Dave Kansas ...Berkshire shares look remarkably cheap.
Berkshire hit $109,925 on Wednesday, its lowest level since June 2010. They have since recovered a bit to trade above $112,000, but the shares are still down about 14% since a Feb. 28 high of $131,300. Berkshire's shares haven't traded below $100,000 since January 2010. Berkshire's B shares, which trade at about $75, have performed in similar fashion.

At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire had a book value of $97,081 a share. That means Berkshire is trading about 1.15 times book value. According to Barclays, Berkshire's historical median valuation is about 1.7 times book value, and 1.1 times book value is about as cheap as Berkshire has gotten in past decade. Its historical price/book multiple since 2000 has been about 1.6. That would be about $155,000 a share based on first-quarter book value.
Buffet Already Bought

Of course Buffett would buy. He already did.

The mistake is thinking that "values" of the past decade constitute real value that the market will recognize anytime soon.

Take a look at Citigroup. Yahoo Finance reports Citigroup Trades at Price/Book of .64

Lovely. Had you bought at price to book of 1.0 (a tremendous "value" to many) you would be 36 percent in the hole.

Take a look Bank of America. Yahoo Finance reports Bank of America Trades at Price/Book of .50

Had you bought Bank of America at "book value" you would be down 50%.

Had you bought Citigroup near its peak you would be down 90% or more with a 0% chance of ever getting even.

Value Trap

Does "book value" constitutes real value? How much of the book value of Citigroup and Bank of America is based on nonsensical not marked-to-market holdings?

Ask the same of Berkshire.

Even if you conclude Berkshire constitutes real "value", what if the market does not recognize that "value" for a decade or even two?

That question may sound silly but it is not.

Many stocks in the Japanese Nikkei index trade at or below book value and have for years. Please consider the following chart of the Nikkei.

Nikkei Chart Since 1989



click on chart for sharper image

The Nikkei peaked above 38,000 in 1989. Two decades later it sits below 10,000.

Like the results?

Of course you don't.

Yet, I would rather place my bets on companies following a 20-year washout than on financial, insurance, or reinsurance businesses (or other value traps) that the market might not recognize for decades, if indeed ever.

Sentiment Matters

Based on "value", Japanese stocks were cheap in 1995, cheaper in 1999, even cheaper in 2005, and preposterously cheap now.

On a similar basis, Berkshire shares may be "cheap" now but why should anyone care if the market may not recognize that for another decade?

The first problem is finding something that is genuinely cheap. Citigroup and Bank of America looked "cheap" all the way down.

The second problem is book values may be overstated. Does anyone really believe the book value of Citigroup or Bank of America? On the same basis, why should anyone believe the book value of Berkshire?

The third problem is timing what is genuinely cheap. The third problem pertains to PE compression cycles. What was "normal" for the past decade has nothing to do with "normal" at all. PE ratios expanded to enormous heights and now we are in a period of PE contraction.

Thus, assuming one does believe Berkshire is undervalued (I don't) , is there any reason to suspect the market will recognize that "value" anytime soon?

Negative Results For Another Decade

If you think Berkshire is a scorching buy, please consider the following:



Count me in the group that says earnings estimates are horrendously overstated and unsustainable.

However, let's assume I am wrong about earnings.

Assume Berkshire is a "screaming buy" based on earnings or other metrics. What difference does it make if it takes the market 10 years to recognize that point of view?

Reversion to the Mean

My point is that not only will earnings revert to the mean, but so will P/E valuations. That is a double whammy to stocks in general and applies to Berkshire as well.

If "either" earnings or valuations revert to the mean, it spells problems for equities at current valuations.

Berkshire, Bank of America, and Citigroup are all dead money "value traps" and may be for a decade just as Intel and Cisco were after the dotcom bust.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


S&P Reconfirms Greek Debt Restructuring Likely a Default; Forget About "Voluntary Restructuring"

Posted: 20 Jun 2011 01:46 PM PDT

Unless this is a planned setup of some sort, forget about this mad dash by EU officials and the ECB to come up with a "Voluntary Restructuring" plan that will not constitute a default.

For the nth time, the S&P has reconfirmed Greek debt restructuring likely a default
"Past experiences show that restructuring the debt of a country, whose creditworthiness is rated at CCC like Greece is currently, tend not to be voluntary and investors must sustain losses," Moritz Kraemer told Die Welt in an article due to be published on Tuesday.

Euro zone officials have told Reuters a second bailout plan for Greece is expected to fund Athens into late 2014 and feature up to 30 billion euros in aid from a voluntary private sector participation on the basis of the so-called "Vienna Initiative." S&P's Kraeemer said whether extending a bond's maturity voluntarily or not is of lesser importance.

"What's decisive is how does it compare to what was promised to creditors when they first invested their money," he said.
From the point of view of default, it may not matter what agreement anyone pulls out of their hat at the last second.

Before a ruling by the S&P would even matter, Greek Prime minister George Papandreou must first survive a vote of confidence. Second, the Greek parliament must agree to conditions set by the IMF and EU.

However, whether or not Papandreou survives a vote of confidence likely does matter. If Papandreou does not survive, the odds of an very disorderly event in the near-term go way up.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


When was the Housing Peak and How Far to the Bottom?

Posted: 20 Jun 2011 10:32 AM PDT

Have housing prices bottomed? If not, when will they?

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture Blog has recently chimed in on that question, and in response Calculated Risk chimed in.

Barry posted this projection in Case Shiller 100 Year Chart



click on chart for sharper image

Based on the Upward Slope of Real House Prices Calculated Risk does not think home prices will fall as Barry suggests.
I've argued that "In many areas - if the population is increasing - house prices increase slightly faster than inflation over time, so there is an upward slope for real prices."



Sure - house prices could overshoot to the downside. But the projection on the first graph of close to 25% in further real price declines is probably excessive. Right now the real CoreLogic HPI is less than 5% above the trend line (it could overshoot), and the Case-Shiller national index will probably decline sharply in Q1 too and not be far above the trend line.
Japan Nationwide Land Prices

I have been following a different kind of model.

Flashback March 26, 2005: It's a Totally New Paradigm



Here are some excerpts from that post.

  • Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors says that "South Florida is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." He predicts that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners will prolong the boom indefinitely.

  • "I just don't think we have what it takes to prick the bubble," said Diane C. Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, who was an optimist during the 90's. "I don't think prices are going to fall, and I don't think they're even going to be flat."

  • Gregory J. Heym, the chief economist at Brown Harris Stevens, is not sold on the inevitability of a downturn. He bases his confidence in the market on things like continuing low mortgage rates, high Wall Street bonuses and the tax benefits of home ownership. "It is a new paradigm" he said.

I called the top of the housing bubble in summer of 2005 based on the Time Magazine Cover "Why We're Going Gaga Over Real Estate" and have been updating the chart ever since, in real time.

When was the US Housing Peak?

Case-Shiller has the peak in summer of 2006. I have it in summer of 2005.

Case-Shiller is a lagging indicator. It uses a three-month moving average published with a two month lag. Moreover, Case-Shiller only looks at home resales, not condos.

Resales did not catch the action in cash back schemes, incentives, and fraud.

In summer of 2005 the condo market bit the dust in many places. Also home builders started discounting heavily. Those discounts did not show up in prices for many months, but rather in incentives such as "free" three-car garages, free granite counter-tops, free cars, etc.

Finally, there were massive fraudulent schemes starting in 2005 that overstated home prices, notably cash back to buyers at closing.

Thus, contract prices did not reflect real costs to buyers for numerous reasons, and Case-Shiller did not pick up on that immediately.

Where Are We Now?



I think housing in some areas is very close to a bottom. Others areas have more to drop.

Based on inventory, shadow inventory, and boomer demographics, home prices are not going up significantly for a long time yet, perhaps a decade, even if they have already bottomed.

There is certainly no reason to rush. Finally, anyone with any uncertainties regarding their employment has no business even thinking about buying now.

Flashback October 27, 2007: When Will Housing Bottom?
The following charts are from a friend who goes by the name "BC".



click on chart for a much sharper image

Housing Starts 1959 - Present



click on chart for a much sharper image

Those looking for a housing bottom anytime soon are likely to be disappointed.

Note that the current boom has lasted well over twice as long as any other. If the bust lasts twice as long as any other, 2012 just might be a rather optimistic target for a bottom.
Please compare the above projections with recent charts by Calculated Risk.

New Home Sales



Housing Starts



Humorous Look at 2008 Bottom Calls

While searching for my housing bottom link from 2007, I stumbled across Rebuttal To SmartMoney Housing Bottom Call from May 2008.
Donald Luskin at SmartMoney is making a case that Housing Prices Near or at Bottom
Today home prices have fallen so much, mortgage rates are so low, and personal income is so high — that homes are more affordable today than at any other time, ever — with mortgage payments on the average home eating up about 40% of income.

With houses more affordable than ever before, why should we expect prices to fall much further from here?

Let's put it in concrete terms — jobs. Since the housing market started coming apart two years ago, jobs in the housing sector — broadly construed, to include everything from bricklayers to mortgage brokers — have already declined by over 1.5 million. That's about 1% of the whole national labor force, and it takes housing employment back to where it was in 2000 before the so-called "housing bubble" even got started. Which begs the question: How many more jobs are there to lose in this sector?
Click on above link for my rebuttal.

When I proposed 2012 as a possible bottom way back in 2007, many people thought I was out of my mind. Certainly Luskin must have felt that way.

Well, here we are, six months away, prices falling fast, and the economy likely headed for another recession.

2012 may still be an optimistic target for a bottom but we are certainly closer to the bottom now than we were than we were in 2007 or 2008.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List