miercuri, 13 iulie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


What Small Business Clients Need to Know About Keywords and SEO

Posted: 13 Jul 2011 04:22 AM PDT

Posted by Austadpro

OK, so I've worked-on or managed well over 100 SEO campaigns over the last few years and a common trend I've noticed is that many small business clients don't really understand how choosing the right keywords affects and defines an SEO campaign and what it takes to deliver results.

Let us start off with an example. Say you're a landscaping company in Central Jersey where the bulk of your business comes from Landscape Construction (walls, patios, driveways, etc). What keywords do you want to rank for?

Landscaping can cover many things: Landscaping, Landscaper, Landscapers, Landscape Design, Landscape Construction, Landscape Maintenance, Lawn Care, Plantings (Bushes/Shrub/Trees/Flowers), Nurseries, Hardscapes (Patios/Pool Decks/Driveways/Walkways/Stairs/Walls), Water Features/Fountains, Recreation (Golf green/tee/Bocce/Horseshoes/etc), Drainage, and on and on and on.

Now, unless you have a huge budget and a team of people working for you, it's unlikely that you can try to rank for all of these terms. And just because your company can do all them, doesn't mean you need to rank for all of them if you specialize in a particular area. Since each of these words are not geo-targeted with a location (such as New Jersey Landscaper) it means you are searching nationally. Doing a search in Google for Landscapers brought back 11,000,000 search results. That's 11 million web pages you have to compete with.

Google Search Results for Landscapers

Can it be done? Yes, but there are factors you have to consider if you expect your SEO to deliver this.

  • There are 11 million web pages to compete with.
  • It's likely that the top ranking sites are optimizing their sites in some way or another.
  • The sites that are already ranking probably have had a website for a long time now.
  • They've probably started optimizing long before you did, so they have a head start.
  • They are likely known brands in the industry and will get preference in national searches.
  • You're competing verse more than just landscaping companies. This may include How-To sites, manufacturers, wholesalers, suppliers, landscape architects, home goods companies, and more.
  • They probably have tons of natural links. That means people are linking to them without being asked.
  • A ton of natural links means they have great link diversity.
  • These sites are usually very large with a ton of content. Optimized or not, it still counts.
  • They may be trusted sources, or have gained links from trusted sources (such as CNN, Wikipedia, and the Library of Congress).

So, before you even choose your keyword term, you should decide on your target area. It can be a town, city, county, region, state, or another geographic name. By geo-targeting your keyword term with a location you narrow down your customer base to who is likely to buy from you and decrease the number of competitors to deal with. This ultimately means faster results and lower costs.

Keyword Research

Let's look at some keyword research to get an idea of what we're in for. Right now I just want to show how different keywords terms and different locations affect the difficulty of the SEO campaign. Google provides the first three columns of results. The SEOmoz Keyword Difficulty Tool provides the difficulty percentages.

 

NOTE: Google Search Results gives the total search results, intitle and inanchor gives the search results with keywords in the titles and anchor text and shows your likely competition. SEOmoz Keyword Difficulty Score shows the competitiveness of the keyword.

You can see by this information that Landscapers get more search results and is more competitive than Landscape Construction. Even though landscape construction gets fewer search results, it would likely provide better traffic results and conversion rates since it is more specific to what our example company does, which is landscape construction.

Once you add on "NJ" you really cut down on 'search noise' and have a better idea of who your audience is. It also decreases the difficulty by a good amount. If you swap "NJ" for "Somerset County" in NJ, you lower the difficulty again. Each time you narrow down your focus you can expect faster results and lower costs.

A keyword difficulty percentage of 26-50 means it's moderately competitive. A keyword difficulty percentage over 50 means it's highly competitive. The higher the percentage and more competitive the keyword, the more it is going to cost and will take to achieve results. Although they can provide a lot of traffic to your website when you rank high for those keywords, getting there is a challenge and will take some time. You will have to wait much longer before you see a return on investment (ROI). Many small businesses don't really have time to wait for large SEO campaigns to develop. It's a better strategy start with a smaller SEO campaign and upgrade as you go.

It's a good idea to choose one competitive keyword and then try to rank well for less competitive keywords related to that category and geography.

The Benefits of Starting Small

It's not uncommon for a client to say, "I don't want to limit my business to a specific area." SEO people understand this and try to accommodate where possible, but it's not always practical. Here are issues you have to deal with if you choose too large an area:

  • It will take longer to see results
  • It will take longer for the client to get a return on investment (ROI)
  • You'll have less overall web visibility

You will see better results if you start by ranking locally and then expand to more competitive markets. Begin by ranking well for your town, then County, then Central Jersey. Once you rank well for Central Jersey it's much easier to gain rankings for NJ than if you started with NJ initially. This enables you to keep your strong search results for your less competitive (and more localized) keywords providing you more reach and web visibility.

If you choose to start statewide first you won't rank as well (or at all) for all those local searches. And if most people who search for your product or service are searching on a local level, such as they do with landscaping, you may be missing out on high quality leads.

The same goes for the keyword term itself. By optimizing for less competitive, but similar terms (landscape stone wall construction, landscape construction water drainage, etc), you make it easier to rank for the more difficult term landscape construction.

Consider this analogy: SEO is like preparing for a marathon. You need to compete in shorter races before you can compete in the marathon. It takes time to build these campaigns. It may take months; it may take years.

Switching Keyword Terms

When you start an SEO campaign, it's important that you know what you want to rank for. Choose a keyword term that is specific to your business. If you start an SEO campaign with one keyword term in mind, and then change your term to something different, you may be wasting all the effort and money that was spent on your campaign already.

Take our landscape construction company. If, in six months, they tell you that they mostly do landscape maintenance rather than landscape construction and want to change the focus of the campaign, it will have wasted much of your previous efforts. Here's why:

  • The set of keywords will be different, so your SEO person will have to do all new keyword research.
  • Your website has been optimized for "landscape construction" when it should have been optimized for "landscape maintenance".
  • Any content written for landscape construction may be useless. All new content will have to reordered and rewritten.
  • Site architecture and hierarchy may have to be changed.
  • All the internal and external links that were built are using the wrong anchors.
  • Website analytics and traffic data may be meaningless.

Each of these is time consuming and costly. Whatever results you achieved in those six months will likely take another six months to achieve with the new set of keywords, if their difficultly is equivalent. For keywords that are more competitive it will take even longer to see similar results. Looking at the numbers below, that is exactly the case for landscaping company. Landscape maintenance is much more competitive on the state and national level than landscape construction.

SEOmoz Keyword Difficulty Tool Competitiveness Range

NOTE: Google Search Results gives the total search results, intitle and inanchor gives the search results with keywords in the titles and anchor text and shows your likely competition. SEOmoz Keyword Difficulty Score shows the competitiveness of the keyword.

Changing Geography

Any affects changing your keyword terms might have is basically the same affects you can expect if you changed your geography qualifier. The affects will be even more dramatic if the new geography is more difficult.

If you choose a less competitive (and a more localized) geography, the issues are easier to overcome, depending on how the SEO campaign was being executed. Changing NJ to Somerset County NJ will take the work you've already did for NJ and it count towards Somerset County NJ. From that point on it shouldn't take long to see good results because there has already been work done that is relative to the first campaign (although not exactly the same) and it is less competitive. The biggest downfall to this is that you waited six months before you got on track, so your return on investment (ROI) has been delayed.

If you change from NJ to NY, it could be considered a whole different campaign, especially if the new geography is more difficult to rank for. Remember, changing your geography is the same as changing your keyword term.

The only time you should really change your set of keywords is if you realized that you chose the wrong keywords from the start. It makes no sense staying with something because the rankings and traffic are good, but it doesn't provide you with any increased business or it brings the wrong type of customer to your website. Only you can tell your SEO person what your business does specifically and what your goals are. Once they have that information they can research the right keywords and work on your campaign. This is why knowing what your business does and what you want to get out of SEO is so important; it will help you choose the correct keywords and geography at the start. Don't waste time and money trying to figure it out.

Adding another Keyword Term or Geography

Ok, so you've had an SEO campaign running for about a year and it's showing results for Landscape Construction NJ and other terms like Landscape Contractor NJ,and showing up in local search results as well. Now that that's done, you can move onto other words. Wait... What? DONE? No, it's not done.

Without continuing an active SEO campaign you allow your competitors to catch up and overtake your search results. This, along with a drop off of relative links being indexed by search engines can work against you. Adding a different set of keyword terms to your list without upgrading and spending more for SEO means that you're splitting the attention of your SEO person.

A new set of keywords means new research, re-optimizing your website to include the new keywords, new content and new pages, and many more links. If the new keywords are different enough, it could take longer to see the same type of results you saw earlier, especially if the difficultly is equivalent. This is because you've divided up your SEO person's time between the old set of keywords and the new set of keywords.

The proper way to accomplish this is to upgrade your plan to include the new set of keywords. This way your SEO person can increase the amount of time spent working on your campaign. They can spend the proper amount of time researching, strategizing, and executing your new set of keywords while increasing your reach and web visibility for your initial set of keywords.

Conclusion

Make sure you have the right expectations of what SEO can provide for you. There is no doubt that SEO is a long-term investment that will pay for itself and more over its lifetime. Don't waste time or money SEOing for the wrong keywords; know you business and what your goals are. Be realistic about the geographies you are trying to rank for. Popular areas will be more competitive; expect to pay higher prices for these competitive SEO campaigns. It shouldn't take longer than a month to see improvements, but SEO takes time. The harder the campaign it, the longer it will be before you get a return on your investment.


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Blog Design for Killer SEO - Infographic

Posted: 12 Jul 2011 03:17 PM PDT

Posted by Cyrus Shepard

Before SEOmoz was a business, it was a blog. In fact, blogging is at the heart of everything this company stands for. A blog is so much more than a pageview generator. It speaks in your voice, provides a gateway to your community, acts as your moral center and facilitates communication with the rest of the world.

And done right, it's an unbeatable marketing tool.

As Blogpulse reports over 165 million identified blogs on the internet, it's safe to say that very few are "done right." I asked my wife, a terrific graphic designer, if she would create an infographic combining SEO and blog design. You probably know someone with a blog who can benefit from this information. Bookmark it and use it as a reference. It presents classic fundamentals as well as tips based on cutting edge research.

Blog Design for Killer SEO Infographic

 Embed this image:

1. Beauty Counts

With all due respect to Arngren.net, the overall design of your site is the first thing visitors see and it significantly influences bounce rate, pageviews and conversions. People who get scared by the idea of professional design often pay the price with a fast, cheap and mass-produced layout.

Professional design doesn’t have to include the word expensive. For a "trifecta" of quality inexpensive design, I often use the following:

Whatever design resource you choose, the goal is to set yourself apart while enticing your visitors to stay.


2. Search Box

It should go without saying that every site needs a prominent search box. Not only does it provide a better experience for your visitors, but you can also mine the data for keyword discovery and user behavior.

Your search box can be the most valuable element of your layout.

Most blogging platforms come pre-equipped with a search box function. Google Custom Search is a stellar option used by SEOmoz.


RSS is Alive

3. RSS is Alive

Every time a major website kills off its RSS feed, the blogosphere writes its obituary. In truth, adoption of RSS feeds has expanded every year, as shown by these surprising statistics from BuiltWith.com.

RSS feeds not only encourage repeat visits, but the visitors are likely your best converters, brand evangelists, and self-motivated link builders.


4. Breadcrumbs

Maybe because we call them “crumbs,” people forget how important they are. Breadcrumbs perform several essential functions including:

  • Helping users to navigate
  • Helping Search Engines to Categorize Content
  • Increasing Crawling and Indexation

When I'm stuck for creative breadcrumb ideas, I pull out this fantastic guide from Smashing Magazine.


5. Navigation

Many development meetings and major wars have been fought over the “right” way to structure a website’s information architecture through navigation. Solve the problem by keeping it simple with these two basic rules for useful and optimized navigation.

  • Strive for a flat site architecture by minimizing the number of “clicks” it takes to reach your content.
  • Remember that almost any dropdown or flyout navigation requiring JavaScript or other complex programming can be substituted with a simple CSS substitution. Check out Stu Nicholls huge list of CSS navigation menus for inspiration.

Although Google has gotten better at crawling Javascript links, classic HTML/CSS links work most consistently for both users and passing link juice. 


6. Images

One of the things I’ve noticed about the recent Google Panda updates is that many of the sites hardest hit contain tons of auto-generated content that lack unique images. Think EzineArticles or consider this screenshot from wiseGeek about Red Pandas. 

Optimize Your Images

The stock image on the left appears on several other pages across the site, isn’t contained within the main body of text, isn’t topical and contains no alt text.

Danny Dover made a great video worth checking out about optimizing images. The best thing you can do is include rich media every chance you get.


7. Keep It Above the Fold

StatCounter Global Stats reports that the average browser height is 768 pixels. By placing your best content above this line, you ensure visitors see it without scrolling and increase the chance that search engines will crawl both your content and links. We’ve seen evidence that Google places less emphasis on content further down the page and sometimes seems to ignore it altogether.

Google Labs 768 Pixels

Test whether content falls above the 768 pixel height using this this tool from Google Labs.


8. Link to Your Best Content

Link To Your Best Content

Take a look at any given page on Wikipedia. Although I wouldn’t recommend going to this extreme, Wikipedia is master of internal linking. Too often people write brilliant blog posts, then fail to ever link to it again. Eventually the post falls out of visibility as it becomes lost in a backlog of archives.

The best practice is to place links within the body of your text when it is relevant and helpful to the reader. Other, somewhat less effective ways to link to your best content include:

  • Popular Posts Widgets
  • Tag Clouds
  • Category Pages

9. Don’t Overdo Links

Links may be good, but too many dilute link juice and may cause crawling issues. Without sufficient PageRank, Google only crawls so many links per page. How many is too many? It varies, but 100 is a good rule of thumb as explained here by Dr. Pete.

If you do have a lot of links, place your important ones in the body of text. These carry more weight, and search engines may devalue links found in the header, sidebar and footer.


10. Watch Your Ad Space

One of the most interesting findings from the 2011 Ranking Factors was the negative correlation between rankings and Google AdSense metrics. This in itself isn’t proof that ad spaces hurt your rankings, but couple this with the fact that a large number of sites hit by the recent Google Panda updates contained a large number of prominent ads above the fold, and you begin to see the damaging potential if overdone.

Adsense

Including ads on your blog is fine and even encouraged as the most legitimate way to monetize your content. Regardless, don’t let ads overshadow your original content in either placement or raw pixel area.


11. Encourage Comments

At SEOmoz, we love comments! They provide one of the best, most prolific forms of UGC (User Generated Content) that we know of. Content generated by comments not only helps you to rank for long tail keyword traffic, but websites with lots of user interaction tend to perform better with search engines.

A blog without comments is just plain lonely and sad.


12. Sharing for Everyone

The statistics are staggering. Mark Zuckerberg recently announced that Facebook users share 4 billion pieces of digital content everyday on Facebook. This includes photos, videos, blog posts and news stories.

Facebook Sharing

Sharing now produces 10% of all Internet traffic. While way behind search, this number continues to grow. New services like Google+ only add to the mix. Test different locations on your blog to find where sharing buttons make the most sense. Don’t neglect them as the landscape changes fast.


13. Test for Speed

There’s nothing worse than a blog that loads agonizingly slow. A recent study by Geoff Kenyon showed average page load speed to be 2.9 seconds and his findings appear right on the money. Page load times not only affect user experience, but slow sites can see a rankings dip as well.

Watch this video to see how Wikipedia loads compared to Amazon. Can your site beat these times?

Created by Webpagetest.org 

Unless you have the Domain Authority of Amazon, take steps to optimize your site for speed.


14. Crawl and Validate

Once your site is built, you’ll be amazed at how many errors lurk unseen beneath the surface.

“No matter how perfect you or your developers are, there’s always problems at launch – broken links, improper redirects, missing titles, pages lacking rel=canonical tags… files blocked by robots.txt, etc.”
                                          -Rand Fishkin from Launching a New Website

Use free tools like Xenu’s Link Sleuth or paid applications like the SEOmoz Web App to check for common SEO problems. Be sure to test your site in different browsers using services such as the Adobe Browser Lab or Browser Shots.


Powerhouse blogging15. Pick a Powerhouse Platform

You’ll find a lot of these tips will be a lot easier to implement by choosing the blogging software and platform most appropriate to your needs. While services such as Blogger and Blogspot have fallen out of fashion, other platforms are constantly innovating. Some of our most reliable and recommended include:

The infographic above contains a complete list of recommended platforms, along with the domain authority of each one.


Nothing in the world beats the satisfaction of a successful blog. These are only a few of the more important ways to optimize your platform and experience. Feel free to share your best tips in the comments below and let’s get blogging!


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Video: Our Heroes Are All Around Us

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
 

Our Heroes Are All Around Us

Yesterday President Obama awarded Sergeant First Class Leroy Petry the Medal of Honor. The Medal of Honor is the highest military decoration awarded by the United States government. Sergeant Petry received the award for his gallantry while on tour in Afghanistan in 2008.

Click here to see the full video of the ceremony.
 


Photo of the Day




President Barack Obama hugs Bertha Petry, the grandmother of Sergeant First Class Leroy Arthur Petry, U.S. Army, in the Blue Room of the White House, July 12, 2011. The President later awarded SFC Petry, left, the Medal of Honor for his courageous actions during combat operations against an armed enemy in Paktya, Afghanistan, in May 2008. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Our Heroes Are All Around Us
The President awards the Medal of Honor to Sergeant First Class Leroy Petry for his heroism in Afghanistan.  

Young Leaders Taking Charge in Environmental Sustainability
Ashley Baia, Associate Director of the Office of Public Engagement, honors a group of young people taking initiative to help green their schools and to inform others about the importance of sustainability and clean energy.

Help Consumers Save Money by Saving Energy
At a time when families are struggling to pay their energy bills, leaders in the House are pushing to roll back common sense standards for residential lighting that save families money by saving energy.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

9:45 AM: The President and The Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:30 AM: The President meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

11:00 AM: The President meets with members of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board

11:15 AM: The Vice President hosts a Cabinet-level meeting to discuss the Administration's ongoing efforts to address sexual assault and dating violence

12:05 PM: The President meets with senior advisors

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

12:30 PM: The President and The Vice President meet for lunch

2:30 PM:
The Vice President meets with General President of the International Association of Fire Fighters Harold Schaitberger

4:00 PM: The President and The Vice President meet with Congressional Leadership

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.Gov/Live

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How to Create a Local Twitter Account Graywolf's SEO Blog

How to Create a Local Twitter Account Graywolf's SEO Blog


How to Create a Local Twitter Account

Posted: 12 Jul 2011 10:03 AM PDT

Post image for How to Create a Local Twitter Account

Most of the the tutorials on the web dealing with growing your Twitter followers, don’t pay any attention to location, and are more concerned with raw numbers. I recently started a local travel website and wanted to focus on gaining local followers from that city and surrounding areas. While I can’t reveal the profile, this tutorial will walk you through how I did it.

First the background: this was a travel related website in one of the top 20 metros in the United States. The goal of the account was to build brand recognition by being a curator and online guide that answered people’s questions. The account extended some good will by retweeting the tweets of other non competing hospitality related accounts or other local focused stories. The account would be used once every 1-2 weeks to push out a linkbait, social media, lead gen, or sales tweet.

Next I decided what sort of activity level I want for the account. In this case I aimed for 3-6 informational or news based tweets per day (non self serving tweets). These tweets would usually happen between 12-5pm in the prime timezone of the account. Using in account lists, I aimed for 2-4 retweets per day. I started with a list of 12 terms that would be checked 2-3 times per day to see if we could answer any questions people had. The account had one tweet per day if there was a new post, and the posting schedule was 2-3 posts per week. The account also had an 18 hour archive tweet rotation (I use tweet old posts to accomplish this). While this may seem pretty mechanical, I’m a big fan of letting humans use tools and automation to be more efficient and get more done (aka nap time by the pool on a sunny afternoon).

… you still can’t get a good haircut over the web, and it’s unlikely people hundreds of miles away will ever come to your hair salon… 
With my Twitter posting goals in place, I started out tweeting at about half of my desired rate, for the simple reason that no one was following me yet. I wanted new followers to see a history when they decided if I was worth following or not (I’ve been doing this for too long and am far too jaded to be objective about what non marketers really look at when deciding to follow you on Twitter or not).

I started out with a list of social media gurus who were running automated accounts that follow everyone who follows them. I knew I was never going to get their attention, but I was interested in the social proof of having some followers and not being seen as a spammer. Once you have about 50 of these, you should have the basics covered.

Next I made 4 lists for hotels, restaurants, nightclubs, and other travel/hospitality businesses and their web addresses. I sent this list to oDesk to have someone find the Twitter and Facebook profiles for each of the businesses. If you are bootstrapping, you could do this yourself. You can use the information a second time down the road for a who’s who in social media in the area ego link bait post.

A few days later, when the work came back completed, I followed all of the accounts and created separate lists on Twitter for each of the categories (this made retweeting others easier).

After the base accounts were followed, I started mining the followers (see How to get more followers on twitter). This is where it becomes more an art than a science. Look for people who are important in the space. You should follow them even though they probably won’t follow you back. Second, look for conversationalists who tweet back and forth about your niche topic often. Third, look for people who are “promoters” or who have an “agenda” but are likely to retweet you if you have retweeted them. Lastly, look for real people who live in the area you are targeting. These are people who will probably never retweet or link to you, but they will click your link, read your page, fill out a lead gen form, or buy something from you.

Adding new followers is a bit of a game. You follow them, wait a few days, and unfollow the people who didn’t follow you back. If you’re used to playing in a social media friendly space you can build up 2,000 followers in a matter of days. In the normal world, you’ll have to go a lot slower. You can follow up to 2,000 more people than are following you, but I recommend never getting that far ahead. I recommend never following more than 200-300 more people than are following you because it just makes you look spammy. I used managefilter and check all in Firefox to speed up the unfollow process.

When you are adding followers, one of the things you want to look at is the number of followers. You want to have an idea where the high bar is and where the average is. In this particular case, most of the accounts had between 500-1000 followers. Some of the accounts with a high brand recognition factor had 2,000 followers. The account with the highest number of followers was just over 6,000 followers.

Here’s a graph of my progress from Raven Tools:

 

Graph of Twitter Followers on raven

You can see the startpoint of 50, followed by the initial surge, then the purge. Every few days the number of accounts I was following would jump, followed by a purge a few days later. You’ll also need to manually unfollow a few people who are excessively chatty, self promotional, or spammy. I ended up adding a few more in account lists because everyone didn’t fit into neat little boxes.

Once your account is up and running and you’ve got followers, it doesn’t mean your work is over. You’ll need to keep working on growing your followers, but you can do it more slowly. I’d suggest going on a follower growth campaign every 2 weeks. Depending on how good you are at making the account interesting, you may not have to be as aggressive in pursuing new followers.

The key message of this post is to be strategic in who you are following and trying to get to follow you. Don’t obsess over getting a high number of followers. Be more concerned with getting qualified followers. If you are a local business and can’t provide a service over the web, having 500,000 followers who can never visit your store or make a purchase doesn’t have much value. As an example, you still can’t get a good haircut over the web, and it’s unlikely people hundreds of miles away will ever come to your hair salon. Instead, look for people who are interested in what you are publishing or selling and have a high likelihood of actually becoming one of your customers.

tla starter kit

Related posts:

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  3. How to Get More Followers on Twitter Getting more Twitter followers is one of the first hurdles...
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How to Create a Local Twitter Account

Seth's Blog : Articulating your preferred use case (what's it for?)

Articulating your preferred use case (what's it for?)

It's possible to open a can of paint with a $500 Kramer knife. Not likely, and certainly not a market segment that's going to help Kramer's business flourish.

At many suburban libraries, the majority of patrons do nothing but 'rent' popular movies on DVD. This isn't an efficient use of the space or the staff, but that doesn't make it any less common.

Some non-profit organizations are organized to get donations in dollars and dimes, and while they won't turn away a $50,000 bequest, it's not something they're focused on.

Every organization starts with a (usually unarticulated) use case. The founders imagine the best use of their product or service, the situation that they're organized around. It can involve answers to the following questions:

  • How does someone find out about what you do?
  • How much do they pay for it?
  • When they're engaging with you in the very best way, what happens? What's accomplished?
  • What do they do after they use it?
  • How often do they return?

If you put a fancy restaurant on a fancy street, your use case doesn't involve nannies with a few kids coming in for just a cup of coffee. On the other hand, that might be exactly what a cafe down the street is hoping for.

If your blog is designed for regular readers and a thoughtful dialogue over time, then generating traffic with linkbait, while possible, isn't going to make the blog work better.

There are two reasons to articulate your use case. First, it helps your staff, your designers, your marketers and your sales force get on the same page about what they're building and growing. And second, it might be unrealistic. You might be hoping for a market that's far bigger than it is, or to solve a problem that's too easy (or too difficult).

When Apple designs a hardware device or a singer records an album, the question must be asked, "What's this for?" Sure, people can run an accounting business with an iPad, or play one particular song on the album at a party, but is that what it's for?

Many organizations will take any customer, any time, and bend and writhe to accomodate money in whatever form it arrives. Other, happier organizations understand the benefit of optimizing for a certain kind of interaction, and they have the guts to decline the part of the market that doesn't want to use their tool/organization the way it was intended

You'll often be wrong about what the market is and what it wants. When that happens, time to either shift your use case (and the way you're organized around it) or stick it out but be prepared for a long, tough slog.

 

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marți, 12 iulie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


University of California Economist Bradford DeLong is Blind: "I Don’t See Any Argument Against QE3"

Posted: 12 Jul 2011 04:06 PM PDT

Bloomberg reports Federal Reserve Needs QE3 to Boost Economic Growth, Berkeley's DeLong Says
The Federal Reserve should engage in another round of quantitative easing as growth in the U.S. economy remains slow and inflation concern remains low, according to Bradford DeLong of the University of California at Berkeley.

"I don't see any argument against QE3," Delong said during an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday" with Tom Keene. "The worry is always that it will destabilize inflation expectations, that they'll lose their anchor, and yet when you look out as far as you can at the prices of the TIPS and of the 30-year Treasuries, you see no sign at all that there's been any loss of confidence that the Fed will keep inflation under control."
DeLong is Blind

The only way you cannot see any arguments against QE3 is if you are blind.

For starters, people on fixed income have been getting hammered. Food prices are up and so are energy bills and gasoline. Reported "inflation" is not up because the Fed does discounts food and energy prices.

I am not a big proponent of the rampant food inflation theory. However, for the first time in a long time, sale prices on food I buy is increasing.

Does Delong want gasoline prices at $6? We might see that on another round of QE. This view comes from a staunch deflationist (except I must point out I view inflation and deflation as a function of money supply and credit, not prices).

Regardless, 0% interest on CDs and savings accounts is hurting a lot of people. DeLong needs to read Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"

One must also ask what good did QE2 do?

Banks did not increase lending, nor did businesses hire, nor did the housing market recover, nor did long-term interest rates drop. Those were the stated goals of QE2. I see 4 strikes. Delong cannot see that because he is blind.

What Delong suggests is so preposterous that it is hard for me to be polite. But polite I will be. The only way you cannot see any arguments against QE3 is if you are totally and completely blind.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


EU Pledges to Support Banks Failing Stress Tests, Rumored to Have Purchased Italian Government Bonds

Posted: 12 Jul 2011 10:17 AM PDT

The ECB bought Greek bonds in belief it would show the market it meant business. The market smashed that pitch to high heavens.

Nonetheless, Bloomberg reports Italian Bonds Snap Six-Day Drop on Speculation ECB Bought Country's Debt
Italian and Spanish bonds rose on speculation the European Central Bank bought the debt of the euro region's most-indebted nations to stabilize markets amid concern that the debt crisis is worsening.

Greek 10-year yields fell the most in almost two weeks while equivalent-maturity Spanish yields retreated from a euro- era record reached earlier. Italian bonds rose, with yields below 6 percent after breaching the level for the first time since 1997. The 27 European Union finance ministers continued meetings today after euro-region officials said late yesterday that they may revive bond buybacks to ease Greece's debt woes. An ECB press officer declined to comment on whether it bought so-called peripheral euro-region bonds today.

"The suspicion has to be that there has been some unofficial central bank activity this morning, be that the ECB, or Asian central banks or a combination of the two," said John Davies, a fixed-income strategist at WestLB AG in London. "The hurdles of the T-bill auctions from Italy, Greece and, to a lesser degree, Belgium, were overcome successfully."

Yields on 10-year Italian bonds declined for the first time in seven days, falling 12 basis points to 5.56 percent as of 4:33 p.m. in London. The yields climbed as high as 6.02 percent, widening the spread over German bunds to 318 basis points, a euro-era record. Spanish 10-year yields were 18 basis points lower at 5.85 percent, after surging to 6.31 percent, the most since 1997.

"Speculation of central bank involvement encouraged short positions in peripherals to be closed," said Peter Chatwell, a strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. "If the ECB were to announce an intention to buy, then it would have the same effect: shorts would scuttle to cover their positions."

Credit-default swaps on Greece surged 150 basis points to 2,453, signaling an 88 percent probability of default within five years, according to CMA prices in London, before settling at 2,324, up 21 basis points from yesterday.

Swaps on Ireland slid 15 basis points to 1,000 after reaching 1,086, Italy slipped 16 to 286 after rising to 343. Portugal dropped 89 basis points to 1,048 after rising to 1,187 and Spain reached 380 basis points before falling 29 to 320, according to CMA data.
EU Will Support Banks Failing Stress Tests

Market "support" does not end with government bond purchases. The Wall Street Journal reports EU Will Support Banks Failing Stress Tests
European Union governments committed at a meeting Tuesday to backstop banks that fail stress tests.

Ahead of the publication of financial-sector stress test results on Friday, officials said all vulnerable banks must recapitalize themselves, be recapitalized by their governments or restructure.

"These measures privilege private-sector solutions but also include a solid framework for the provision of government support in case of need, in line with state aid rules," according to a statement from the economic bloc's 27 finance ministers.

At the meeting, ministers said their governments either have action plans ready or would have them in time for publication of the test results, said Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski. However, he added: "It's not the case that everything has to be in place ... although in the majority of countries most things are in place."

The EU Commission's internal market commissioner also put rating agencies on warning in comments following the meeting, saying that a proposal to increase regulatory oversight would come this November.

"I want to have transparency concerning their methods, particularly when they're rating countries," said Commissioner Michel Barnier. "You don't rate a country the same way you rate a business or a product."
Questions of the Day

  1. Is support for banks and bond buying unlimited?

  2. Buying government bonds failed before, and spectacularly at that, so why would it work now other than for a day or two as weak shorts get pushed out of the market?

  3. For now, these actions have calmed the bond an equity markets. How long will that last?

For more on Commissioner Michel Barnier's preposterous rating plan to prohibit rating agencies from rating the debt of countries in rescue programs please see Cardiac Arrest; Italy and Spain Close to the Abyss; EU Commissioner Seeks to Prohibit Agencies from Rating Debt of Countries in Rescue Programs

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Cardiac Arrest; Italy and Spain Close to the Abyss; EU Commissioner Seeks to Prohibit Agencies from Rating Debt of Countries in Rescue Programs

Posted: 12 Jul 2011 12:31 AM PDT

In yet another step deeper into the theater of the politically absurd, Euro Intelligence reports EU competition commissioner Michel Barnier wants to prohibit rating debt of countries in EFSF rescue programs.
The degree of confusion and desperation among eurozone policymakers is reaching new heights. EU competition commissioner Michel Barnier wants to prohibit ratings for countries which are part of an EFSF rescue program, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports. In a speech in Paris he argued that they enjoyed European solidarity and that they were under the watch of the EU and the IMF.

Barnier asked the Polish EU presidency to put the topic on the agenda of the next finance minister's meeting. All economists interrogated by the paper thought Barnier's proposal was absurd.
Cardiac Arrest

The actual lead to that Euro Intelligence report is "Hallo, anybody there? Eurozone about to suffer a cardiac arrest"
In the absence of a policy response, the eurozone's financial system may implode within a few days.

El Pais' front page story ran with the headline that Europe was close to the abyss. The paper writes in an editorial that Germany, the Netherland, Finland and Austria stood in the way towards a solution of the crisis, and accused politicians in these countries to react hysterically.
The translated El Pais article Italy and Spain are close to the abyss does not say anything you have not seen elsewhere. However, it is interesting to see mainstream newspapers discussing "the abyss".

For a recap of Monday's panic, please see


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List