miercuri, 24 august 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Content Marketing for the Talent-Impaired

Posted: 23 Aug 2011 12:27 PM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

There’s a reason people balk at content marketing – it’s hard. Not only do we have to be marketers, but now we’re supposed to be subject-matter experts, writers, and designers? Sure, we can hire it out, and sometimes we should, but there’s something to be said for crafting a piece of content entirely on your own. It’s not just ego – it’s your vision and only you really understand what you want in the finished product.

For me, the gap is often in the design and illustration. I’m assuming you’re a subject-matter expert in something and can write about it competently (it’s ok if you’re not a poet). If you’re like me, and your expectations are bigger than your talents, I’d like to offer a few shortcuts I’ve learned for designing your own content.

1. Liven Up Text

It’s amazing what you can do with a few words and a splash of color. For example, I started a recent post by writing out how much money Google made last year:

With just one font and strategic use of color, I was able to not only emphasize that $29B is a lot of money, but I tied it to Google’s identity. Best of all, it only took a few minutes.

I have to come clean and admit that I learned this trick (a couple of these tricks, actually) from Rand. Here’s another example, from his recent post on the responsibilities of a modern SEO:

The image looks great, and it really livened up Rand’s post, but what is it, really? It’s just well-placed text with a splash of color. I’m not picking on Rand – my point is that these small touches can make a huge difference.


2. Keep It Simple

Even if you go beyond text, you don’t have to be an artist to create a simple illustration that effectively communicates an idea. Justin Briggs had a great post here recently on how Google might detect spam, and it included images like this one:

Practically speaking, it’s just some circles and arrows, but these images really helped illustrate the complex ideas in Justin’s post. It wasn’t the complexity of the design that mattered, but the depth of the ideas behind the design.

Let’s pick on Rand again. Here’s an image he did for a recent post on inbound marketing:

I’ll let you in on a little secret – boxes and arrows are one of Rand’s favorite tricks. It’s hard to argue, because this image is a lot more compelling than a bulleted list. I hope you’re also seeing a pattern here – it’s the quality of the thought behind the image that really matters.

I admit that I’m trying to keep this post to mostly SEOmoz examples – not to pat ourselves on the back, but to show that we practice what I’m preaching. Here’s an outside example I really like, though, a Minimalist Muppet poster created by Eric Slager:

Obviously, this one is a bit more complex than my previous examples, but the actual design elements are pretty simple. The concept is genius, but the graphic itself really is minimalist. The minimalist meme has been going around – here’s another example with superhero posters (via ScreenRant.com):

My minimalist Roger Mozbot illustration should make a bit more sense now. The moral of this story: you can do a lot with some basic skills, if the core concept is strong enough. Clearly, this is the work of talented designers, but you don’t have to be an Adobe Illustrator guru to create something similar. You just have to start with great ideas.


3. Plagiarize Yourself

It’s not stealing if you take your own stuff – good content creators learn when and how to re-use their own content. That doesn’t necessarily mean using the same image over and over (although there are times when even that can be very effective). It means learning how to re-use elements of your own illustrations, sometimes even within the same post. Recently, I did a post on marketing ethics, and I illustrated the post with whiteboard-style drawings like this one:

It won’t hang in a museum anytime soon, but I think the series of illustrations helped simplify a difficult topic. If you look at the 5 illustrations, you’ll see each of them have some variation on the same 5 elements:

You don’t have to be a connoisseur of the fine arts to realize that element #2 is just the same guy with a bowtie and element #5 is the blue car “painted” red. Take away the brick wall in the 1st image and the gray box, and I essentially created 5 illustrations with 3 main elements.

Last year, Rand did a great piece illustrating indexation issues. Some of the illustrations were pretty complex, like this one:

Before the days of Roger Mozbot (or, as we call it, the Time of Despair), Rand used to frequently create illustrations that were essentially Googlebot + Page icons + Arrows + Text. Again, I’m not picking on him – the finished products were great. Break them down, though (and pay attention over years of content), and you’ll see that Rand was re-using a lot of work he’d already done. That’s one of the reasons he can pound out an amazing blog post between 2-4am on a trans-Atlantic flight.

Re-use starts with being a curator of your own content. Eventually, you may even build some custom illustration libraries. Here’s an example – back in 2008, I wrote an e-book on CRO that started with an illustrated guide to conversion metrics. It included images like this one:

If you read my recent post on duplicate content and Panda, this may seem oddly familiar. That post used a number of similar web-page images, including:

In that post, I easily converted this basic template into 8 different illustrations. Condensed, those illustrations look something like this:

I don’t want to beat you to death with this point, but I think it’s often easy to miss how elements can build on each other. This kind of approach not only saves time, but it gives your content a consistent look and feel and can make your work look more professional.

You can also see how easy it would be to split these web-page templates into a basic library of layers (I actually have multiple Photoshop files, but the core concept is the same):

As you develop these design libraries over time, especially with an image as flexible as a basic web-page, you find more and more creative ways to use them. Best of all, the quality of your illustrations improves even as they take less time to create. You may even find yourself earning a reputation for your distinctive talent-impaired style.


So, Get to Work

Stop saying you’re “not a designer” and design something. It doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be based on a good idea. Over time, you’ll get better, even if you can only put in 10-15 minutes a day. If you find yourself staring at the computer screen for an hour, pick a new medium. A few months ago, I got up, walked to Office Depot, and bought a box of Crayola markers. It was one of the best creative decisions I’ve made in a long time. Whatever it takes, get started.


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How to Choose Keywords for Your Blog Graywolf's SEO Blog

How to Choose Keywords for Your Blog Graywolf's SEO Blog


How to Choose Keywords for Your Blog

Posted: 24 Aug 2011 10:04 AM PDT

Post image for How to Choose Keywords for Your Blog

How to choose keywords for your blog? If you’ve ever seen me at a conference, giving a presentation, or ranting on any of the social media  hangouts, chances are good that you’ve heard me pick on bloggers for not choosing their keywords properly when writing their posts. In this article, I’ll explain what I see as the real problem, why it persists, and what you can do to fix it.

You need to understand that you can’t have flowery, creative language and be keyword focused. The two are mutually exclusive goals… 
IMHO bloggers who fancy themselves as writers are their own worst enemies. Maybe they think they are modern day novelists or maybe they think they will eventually turn their blogs into books by pulling a miraculous Julia & Julia move. Whatever the reason, they think of their words on the blog as a lovingly crafted piece of artwork instead of as a tool designed to do a job and do it well. When they sit down to write something, they strive to make it as interesting and noteworthy as possible. Keyword focus, using common language, and being easy to read and comprehend are lesser goals, if they are even considered at all.

As a case in point, consider this recent article from the Lonely Planet: Rio de Janeiro on a shoestring

Rio de Janeiro on a Shoestring

Even if you have a only a cursory knowledge of the travel space, chances are good that Lonely Planet is a brand name you recognize. If you take the time to read the article, you will see it has useful information. So where’s the problem? We need to discuss how someone discovers that the document exists.

If you are someone who enjoys reading travel blogs, you will come across this article and read it. If visiting Rio is on your bucket list, you might even bookmark it or send it to a friend. However, people who are searching for information on “how to plan a trip to Rio de Janeiro” or “how to save money on a trip to Rio de Janeiro” are unlikely to ever come across this article. Why? Because the author chose to go with a clever title instead of one with common language or keyword search volume. As humans, we can make the leap from ” shoestring” to “cheap” or “budget,” but the search algorithms can’t do it yet.

This is the point where bloggers moan and throw up their hands in disgust at the mere idea of being so pedestrian as to dumb down their artful language for the great unwashed masses, the common folk–or, worse yet, having to write for machine or search engine algorithm. If you are writing for yourself or for enjoyment, go ahead write about whatever you want and use what ever language and title you like. But if you want to make blogging an income source, yes, you will have to write using common language and for machines and search engines. Many many moons ago, Andy Hagans taught me a lesson: the value and monetization of your blog comes from your archives. Not all your posts will be winners but, when you’ve done your homework, found the right keywords, and kept the post interesting, you are sitting on the goose that laid the golden egg (in other words, passive income from an ATM machine) for years to come. If you’re willing to swallow your pride, put your ego in check, and write using keywords that people are searching for, your blog could become your car payment, mortgage payment, kid’s college fund, retirement fund, or even the key to a bathrobe lifestyle at your very own beach house.

So let’s talk about how to go from your flowery, poetic prose to getting posts that rank, drive traffic, and make money. You need to understand that you can’t have flowery, creative language and be keyword focused. The two are mutually exclusive goals. You can, however, be interesting, useable, and have a keyword focused post if you’re willing to try. First, sit down and write the post you want. Get it to the point where you are happy with it. Bask in its artistic glow. Then reach for the battle axe and get ready to hack it apart. Hopefully your post has a key concept that people are looking for and you just obfuscated it from search engines with artsy prose. Here’s an example:

Your title:
My weekend visit to Sin City for less than 50 sheckels

Now compare it to these with greater keyword focus:
How to Plan a Weekend in Las Vegas for less than 50 dollars
How to Plan a Cheap Vacation to Las Vegas for under $50

If you think someone will go to Google and type in “visit sin city for less than 50 scheckles” or something equally obscure and witty, close the laptop and step away from the keyboard. There’s nothing I can do to help you. However, if you agree that my suggested titles are much more likely to match terms users will actually type into a search engine, read on.

Sometimes you give up a little focus for text that reads better and makes more sense. But I said sometimes, not all the time…
 There are lots of tools to help you do keyword research like Google Adwords Tool, Wordstream, Wordtracker, SEMRush, and many others. Some are free, some are paid. Unless you happen to use a really crappy free one with data from Lycos and Hotbot, it’s pretty hard to completely screw this step up. Will the paid tools give you better data? Probably, but we need to start somewhere, and the goal of this post is to get you thinking about choosing keywords as a first step, not fine tuning for maximum value.

Once you have the keyword(s) concept, go back and start hacking up your original post, editing it for emphasis without making it sound too awkward. Striving for keyword focus is a bit art and science. Sometimes you give up a little focus for text that reads better and makes more sense. But I said sometimes, not all the time. You can use lots of tools to do this. My favorite is Scribe. Let’s get all the cards on the table: Scribe is a paid product (see my Scribe review) and, if you sign up from my link, I get a commission. That said, it’s a product I’ve been using for over a year. By helping me focus the keywords in my posts, I have made more money–far more money than it costs to use.

I use it much more heavily on my commercial blogs and as not as much here because my audience here is more well-established. However, sometimes I want that archive traffic to generate income, so I’ll turn it on. For example, when I wrote a post on how to get more followers for Twitter, Scribe showed the focus was on the term “follower raid,”, not “how to get more followers.” I had become my own worst enemy. I got attached to the jargon in my head. The phrase “follower raid” had that black hat barbarian appeal that resonated with me. However, I swallowed my pride, did the research, realized the core concept people were most likely to be searching for was “how to get more followers on Twitter,” and off I went. Using Scribe, I was able to get the keywordd focus where I wanted it without sacrificing too much of the post.

Scribe Keyword Focuse

Is the post as interesting as some of the other posts on Twitter about getting more Twitter followers? Probably not, but it is easier to understand and (more importantly) absolutely ranks, drives traffic, and makes income via adsense. The key lesson here is that, unless you were born rich, we all have to make artistic compromises to make our products commercially viable. Call it selling out, call it buying in–I call it putting a roof over my family’s head and food on the table. The question that you need to ask is whether choosing a title like “Rio de Janerio on a shoestring” and being artistic is more important and satisfying than compromising, being a common man, and going with “how to plan a cheap vacation to Rio de Janiero,” which will draw dramatically more income. Only you can make that choice.

If you are on a limited budget, go ahead and use free tools for choosing keywords and analyzing your posts. For me, the ability to do that work in WordPress without opening 2-3 tabs and bouncing back and forth is worth it, especially over multiple blogs, where the time saved is compounded.

To be clear, I am a paying customer of Scribe. I don’t get it free or comped. But I can justify the expense: it is more than paying for itself every month. If you would like to give Scribe a try and see how it works for you, you’ve got nothing to lose. They offer a 30 day free trial. So what are you waiting for? Get started today. I bet you’ll be making more money and less shekels …

photo credit: Photospin

tla starter kit

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How to Choose Keywords for Your Blog

Presidential Pets Photo Gallery: Puppies, cats, ponies and raccoons?

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
 

Photo Gallery: Pets in the White House

Check out our photo gallery to learn more about the pets who have called 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue home over the years. You'll also find a bonus gallery featuring Bo, the current resident of the White House dog house.

 

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Quake in D.C. Serves As Reminder To Get Prepared
The earthquake is a great reminder that emergencies can strike anywhere and often happen without warning. Watch a video message from FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate and get tips on what to do during and after an earthquake. 

Entrepreneur All-Stars Join the Startup America Partnership
To help increase the success of young companies, the White House-led Startup America Initiative has rolled out new policies in tandem with the independent Startup America Partnership, which has been hard at work mobilizing the private sector to "raise the entrepreneurial game of the United States."

Hurricane Irene: National Resources in Case of Emergency
While the future path of Irene is uncertain, it's important that those along the East Coast take steps to get prepared and stay informed.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

2:00 AM: Vice President Biden delivers remarks to U.S. service members and their families at Yokota Air Base, headquarters of U.S. Forces Japan

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Seth's Blog : Mark Zuckerberg isn't Mark Zuckerberg

Mark Zuckerberg isn't Mark Zuckerberg

"Mark Zuckerberg" has become a codeword for the truly gifted exception, the wunderkind freak of nature for whom traditional rules don't apply.

Well, sure, Mark Zuckerberg can drop out of Harvard, but you're not Mark Zuckerberg...

Here's the thing: Even Mark isn't Mark Zuckerberg.

This notion that there's a one in a billion alignment of DNA and experience that magically creates an exception is just total nonsense. Mark is successful because of a million small choices, not because he, and he alone, has some magical properties.

Mostly, the best way to be the next Mark Zuckerberg is to make difficult choices.

 

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marți, 23 august 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Moody's Warns Against Collateral Proposal; In Response, Finnish PM Warns Finland will Not Sign Second Greek Bailout Without Collateral; Merkel Madness

Posted: 23 Aug 2011 03:45 PM PDT

The battle over Greek collateral for additional loans to Greece has heated up on multiple fronts in five countries. Let's start with a look at a warning from Moody's.

FX Street notes Moody's warns that Greek bailout might be delayed
Moody's rating agency warned on Monday that EU countries which demand collateral agreements with Greece might delay the payment of the next 8 billion euro tranche of the rescue fund for Athens, push it into default and hamper the fight against the crisis in the Eurozone.

Last week Finland negotiated a bilateral deal with Greece; soon Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia demanded similar guarantees. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos asked the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF for help with solving possible further disputes with countries demanding collateral agreements.

Moody's considers the Greek-Finnish agreement a sign that some Eurozone countries and politicians are not capable of implementing measures necessary to maintain stability in the region. It adds additional pressure on France and Germany to take an even stronger position and present a clearer plan than the one agreed on last week. Germany has already expressed its objection towards the pact with Finland, pointing out that such agreements should be consulted with and approved by all of the Eurozone members.

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy held a meeting last week and announced a battery of new measures to have a new, powerful and "true European economic government". Both leaders rejected the idea of euro bonds, which disappointed investors. They proposed to establish a common economic government for EU for 2½ years that would help strengthen national fiscal solvency and asked that the 17 euro zone countries must have a public debt ceiling rule in their constitutions. They suggested a tax on financial transactions in September and more powers to the European Commission.
Merkel Madness

Pray tell what "new, powerful and true European economic government" is on the horizon without common fiscal policy of common bonds?

Is this Merkel Madness or is she playing the Jean-Claude Juncker card "You have to lie when it gets serious"?

Regardless, it is Finland who has the cards given the stance of Finnish Prime Minister Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen.

Finland will Not Sign Second Greek Bailout Without Collateral

The Euro Observer reports Finland puts Greek bailout package under pressure
The US-based ratings agency in a note on Monday (22 August) predicted other eurozone countries will reject a deal between Finland and Greece for Athens to put around €600 million in an escrow account in case it is unable to pay back Helsinki's part of its second bailout.

"A proliferation of collateral agreements would ... imply that the some euro-area countries would bear disproportionately large shares of the risk associated with the provision of financial support ," it said. "We expect other euro-area members to ultimately reject the Finland-Greece deal ... but the message sent by the calls for such agreements confirms that Europe is conflicted over the very decision to provide financial support to its members, not just the amount of support."

Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen has warned that if the collateral deal is thrown out, Finland will not sign up to the second Greek bailout.

Katainen's position, which has already seen Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia explore possibilities for their own collateral arrangements with Greece, attracted criticism from Dutch finance minister Jan Kees de Jager on Monday.

"The Netherlands is no supporter of this proposal ... It is not compatible with the principle of equal treatment of all euro countries," de Jager said in an open letter to the Dutch parliament.

The potential proliferation of collateral requests is not the only emerging risk to the EU's self-imposed deadline to get the new bailout arrangements ratified by all 17 eurozone countries by the end of September.

The German central bank in its latest monthly report indicated that the eurozone deal, which also involves provisions for the EU bailout fund, the EFSF, to buy bonds from struggling euro economies, might breach German law by marking a new surrender of sovereign fiscal powers to Brussels.

"Far-reaching extra risks will be shifted to those countries providing help and to their taxpayers, and entail a large step towards a pooling of risks from particular EMU [European Monetary Union] states with unsound public finances," the Bundesbank said.

"Unless there is a fundamental change of regime involving a far-reaching surrender of national fiscal sovereignty, it is imperative that the 'no bail-out' rule – still enshrined in the treaties - should be strengthened by market discipline, rather than fatally weakened."

The bank's statement lends weight to a legal challenge to the bailout deal filed in Germany's constitutional court ahead of the judge's verdict, due in the coming weeks.
So not only might Finland, Austria, Slovakia, and the Netherlands tell the EU, the ECB, and the IMF to "go to hell", a correct constitutional ruling in Germany might end the discussion once and for all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


2-Year Treasuries at Record Low .21% Yield; LIBOR Exceeds 2-Year Yield; Is this Crazy?

Posted: 23 Aug 2011 11:58 AM PDT

Nearly the entire treasury yield curve is at or near record low yields as Bloomberg notes in Treasury Auctions Two-Year Notes at a Record Low Yield on Refuge Demand
The Treasury sold $35 billion of two-year notes at a record low yield of 0.22 percent as investors continue to seek the world's safest securities as a refuge from financial market turmoil and a slowing economy.

Record Lows

The 10-year note yields dropped on Aug. 18 to the historical low of 1.97 percent. Yields on five- and seven-year notes fell that day to records of 0.79 percent and 1.31 percent.

Two-year note yields reached a record low of 0.1568 percent on Aug. 9.

The two-year note auction yield was less than the previous record low of 0.395 percent on June 27 and compared with the average forecast of 0.221 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of eight of the Fed's primary dealers.

Bid Pattern

Indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, purchased 31.6 percent of the notes, compared with 27.7 percent at the July 26 offering and an average of 31.1 percent for the past 10 auctions.

Direct bidders, non-primary dealer investors that place their bids directly with the Treasury, bought 15.9 percent of the notes, versus 20 percent last month and an average of 15.1 percent at the last 10 auctions.
So much for the potty notion that foreign governments were about to dump US treasuries. Not to fear, I am sure that silly notion will be revived next week if not tomorrow.

Treasuries Invert With LIBOR

If you were waiting for the yield curve to invert before you were willing to admit the likelihood of recession, you have in inversion of sorts, not with treasury yields bur rater treasury yields to LIBOR (the rate at which banks lend to each other).

Overnight, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year LIBOR rates exceed yield on 2-year treasuries.



The above from Bloomberg Key Rates.

Current LIBOR is .31% and that is a higher yield that treasuries all the way through 2-year, and nearly matches 3-year treasuries at .36%.

Flashback March 10, 2011: Pimco Dumps All Remaining Treasuries in Total Return Fund; Six Reasons to Fade Bill Gross
Pimco's Bill Gross has been dumping US government debt in favor of other alternatives including emerging-market opportunities. Looking ahead, I think it's more likely to be a bullish setup for treasuries than not.

First, please consider the news.

Bloomberg reports Pimco's Gross Eliminates Government Debt From Total Return Fund

Six Reasons to Fade Pimco

I view this setup as favorable for US Government bonds. For starters there is no Pimco selling pressure, only potential buying pressure when Gross changes his mind.

Second, everyone seems to think the end of QE II will be the death of treasuries. While that could be the case, sentiment is so one-sided that I rather doubt it, especially is the global recovery stalls.

Third, the US dollar is towards the bottom of a broad range and any bounce could easily wipe out gains in higher yielding emerging-market debt.

Fourth, the global macro picture is weakening considerably with overheating in China, state government austerity measures in the US, and a renewed sovereign debt crisis in Europe on top of a supply shock in oil. Emerging markets are unlikely the place to be in such a setup.

Fifth, chasing yield means chasing risk, and that is on top of currency risk. Chasing risk is highly likely to fail again at some point, the only question is when.

Sixth, several interest rate hikes are priced in by the ECB this year. Will all those hikes come? I rather doubt it, and if the ECB doesn't hike, look for the US dollar to rally, perhaps significantly.
Nearly everyone but economist Dave Rosenberg dismissed US recession talk in March, few do so now and investors are no longer looking for gains, but rather simply a safe place to not lose money.

The US dollar did not rally yet as I had expected but the rest of what I said was spot on. Bear in mind I see no value in US treasuries now, and there was little value even then.

So are 2-year yields at .21% crazy?

Hardly.

It's the search for safe, liquid hiding places that has compressed US yields. Risk in equities heading into a recession, with Europe already in recession and Asia slowing rapidly, is enormous.

Moreover, that 1 month LIBOR is .31% while 1-month Treasuries sit at 0% is not crazy either, except perhaps in reverse (the spread is not high enough). Distrust between banks is high and rising and for good reason. Even on this nearly 3% up day in the markets, Bank of America is trading down nearly 3% and at one point touched as low as $6.01, down about 6.5%.

The risk trade is off and it may be off for longer than most think. For reasons, please see Another "Lost Decade" Coming Up; Boomer Retirement Headwinds; P/E Expansion and Contraction Demographic Model; Negative Returns for a Decade Revisited

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Another "Lost Decade" Coming Up; Boomer Retirement Headwinds; P/E Expansion and Contraction Demographic Model; Negative Returns for a Decade Revisited

Posted: 23 Aug 2011 03:03 AM PDT

Inquiring minds are digging into a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report that models equity prices and P/E ratios based on demographics. The outlook is not promising to say the least.

Interestingly, the report matches articles I wrote earlier this year based on cycles, not demographics.

First let's take a look at the Fed report, then another look at my previous articles on P/E expansion and contraction followed by a new chart that suggests another "lost decade" is in progress right now.

Please consider Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?
Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.

Demographic trends and stock prices: Some evidence

To examine the historical relationship between demographic trends and stock prices, we consider a statistical model in which the equity price/earnings (P/E) ratio depends on a measure of age distribution.

We construct the P/E ratio based on the year-end level of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index adjusted for inflation and average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 12 months. We measure age distribution using the ratio of the middle-age cohort, age 40–49, to the old-age cohort, age 60–69. We call this the M/O ratio.

Figure 1 displays the P/E and M/O ratios from 1954 to 2010. The two series appear to be highly correlated. [Circles added by Mish for later reference]



Between 1981 and 2000, as baby boomers reached their peak working and saving ages, the M/O ratio increased from about 0.18 to about 0.74. During the same period, the P/E ratio tripled from about 8 to 24. In the 2000s, as the baby boom generation started aging and the baby bust generation started to reach prime working and saving ages, the M/O and P/E ratios both declined substantially. Statistical analysis confirms this correlation. In our model, we obtain a statistically and economically significant estimate of the relationship between the P/E and M/O ratios. We estimate that the M/O ratio explains about 61% of the movements in the P/E ratio during the sample period. In other words, the M/O ratio predicts long-run trends in the P/E ratio well.

Demographic headwinds for U.S. stock prices

This evidence suggests that U.S. equity values are closely related to the age distribution of the population. Since demographic trends are largely predictable, we can forecast the path that the P/E ratio is likely to follow in the next few decades based on the predicted M/O ratio. Figure 2 compares the actual and model-implied P/E ratios for the sample period ending in 2010. We calculate the path for the model-implied P/E during the sample period by feeding in actual M/O ratios. We call the long-run path of the P/E ratio predicted by the model the "potential P/E ratio" and designate it P/E*. Figure 2 shows that the P/E* (red dashed line) is highly correlated with actual P/E during the sample period.



To generate a forecast for actual P/E from 2011 to 2030, we must first project P/E* for that period. To obtain this future P/E* path, we calculate the projected M/O ratio from 2011 to 2030 by feeding Census Bureau projected population data into the estimated model. Figure 2 shows that P/E* should decline persistently from about 15 in 2010 to about 8.4 in 2025, before recovering to 9.14 in 2030.

We are also interested in forecasting the potential path for stock prices. Since we have forecast a path for the P/E ratio, predicting stock prices is straightforward if we can project earnings, the E part of the ratio. For this purpose, we assume that, in the next decade, real earnings will grow steadily at the same average 3.42% annual rate by which they grew from 1954 to 2010. To obtain real earnings, we deflate nominal earnings by the consumer price index.

The model-generated path for real stock prices implied by demographic trends is quite bearish. Real stock prices follow a downward trend until 2021, cumulatively declining about 13% relative to 2010. The subsequent recovery is quite slow. Indeed, real stock prices are not expected to return to their 2010 level until 2027. On the brighter side, as the M/O ratio rebounds in 2025, we should expect a strong stock price recovery. By 2030, our calculations suggest that the real value of equities will be about 20% higher than in 2010.
P/E Expansion and Contraction Drive Share Prices Not Earnings

Figure 2 above ought to scare the daylights out of long-term buy-and-hold types because it is expansion and contraction of P/Es that most determines share prices, not earnings.

I covered that idea in depth in Negative Annualized Stock Market Returns for the Next 10 Years or Longer? It's Far More Likely Than You Think.
I used Crestmont's matrix S&P 500 Nominal Returns + Dividends as the starting point for the following tables and analysis.

The table below shows a sampling of years (some high valuation years and some low) along with annualized returns for two decades.

Annualized Rates of Return for Select Years



Click on any table to see a sharper image

Note how much the starting PE valuation matters. Someone who started investing in 1929 received an annualized rate-of-return of 0% for two full decades, even if they religiously reinvested dividends every year.

However, someone investing in 1982 received an excellent annualized rate-of-return for two full decades (12% for the first decade and 9% annualized for 20 years).

Note year 2000. Starting valuations were the highest in history. It should not have been a surprise to discover that 10 years later, the annualized rate-of-return was -2%.

Bear in mind, the Case-Shiller normalized PE for the year ending 2010 is 23. Does that bode well for the next decade?

Of course no one knows what this year or next year will bring.

Take a look at 1996 in the above table. In spite of several years of huge stock market gains, the annualized rate-of-return to date sits at 3.

Cycles of PE Compression and Expansion



Over long periods of time PE ratios tend to compress and expand. Unless "it's different this time", history says that we are in a secular downtrend in PEs. From 1983 until 2000, investors had the tailwinds PE expansion at their back. Since 2000, PEs fluctuated but the stock market never returned to valuations that typically mark a bear market bottom.

Moreover, demographically speaking, the current decade not only starts with very rich valuations, but also comes at a time when peak earnings of boomers have passed. Those boomers are now heading into retirement and will need to draw down savings, not accumulate large houses and more toys.
There is much more in the above article including a look at fundamental reasons why valuations are currently stretched far beyond what analysts tell you. Please take a look if you have not done so already.

PE Compression and Expansion 1965 - Present

Also take a good look at that P/E Compression Expansion Chart 1965 to Present and compare to the charts by the San Francisco Fed.

The P/E ratios will not exactly match because I use normalized earnings but the time periods match and the overall trends match as well.

Starting in 1965 there was P/E compression for 18 years. Staring in 1983 there was P/E expansion for 17 years. That marked capped the biggest bull market in history.

Now What?

My model suggests 17-18 years of P/E compression. The Fed article suggests even longer! If so, where are stock prices headed?



Bear in mind, I do not subscribe to the San Francisco Fed idea "real earnings will grow steadily at the same average 3.42% annual rate by which they grew from 1954 to 2010".

We are in the midst of a massive debt-deflation cycle similar to the one that has plagued Japan for over two decades. There is no reason to expect earnings growth to match prior averages.

Value Traps

Not only will we be in a lengthy period of P/E compression, debt-deflation and related issues suggest earnings will compress as well.

This compounds greatly the "Value Trap" problem I have mentioned several times recently, notably Value Traps Galore (Including Financials and Berkshire); Dead Money for a Decade.

Here is the conclusion of "Negative Annualized Stock Market Returns for the Next 10 Years or Longer? It's Far More Likely Than You Think"
Where to From Here?

Hopefully you now realize that expectations of rising earnings being tremendous for the stock market is a fallacious construct. Such talk ignores high valuations, the long-term trend in valuations, and demographics. Moreover, it's debatable if earnings are likely to rise in the first place.

With that in mind, people chasing this market as well as those fully invested do not realize how lucky they have been.

Last week I received an email from someone who fears being out the market. I heard the same thing in 2007. I suggest people ought to fear being fully invested with no hedges. The same applies to pension funds. Note that most pension plan assumptions are on the order of 8% annualized rates-of return, and pension funds are typically 100% invested, 100% of the time.

However, I do not know where the market is headed this year, nor does anyone else. 2011 may turn out like 1998 or it may turn out like 2008.

Either way, history strongly suggests that 10-year and 20-year returns looking ahead are likely to be low, if not negative.

Investing, like life, is a marathon not a sprint. Sometimes the prudent thing to do is sit on the sidelines waiting for better opportunities, even if it means enduring cat-calls and taunts from those who do not have any understanding of risk or history.
That was written in February 2011. At the time, and for the next couple months I received many emails from people who feared being out of the market.

Given valuations, demographics, and trends in P/E compression, the fear should be about being in this market unhedged, not being out of it.

As noted by me previously, and now by the San Francisco Fed, this sorry state of affairs could last for years. Alternatively, stocks might crash once again to get to more reasonable valuations.

Either way, the picture is not pretty for those following buy-hold-and-forget-about-it strategies. Someone retiring now does not have until 2027 (the Fed's prediction), to get back to even.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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