Central Perk

luni, 5 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Gold Hits New High of $1920; Miners Should Follow
Trichet Warns Heads of States; Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"; IMF Warns again on Bank Capitalization; Mish Warns Trichet
CAM Bank, Taken-Over by Bank of Spain, Reports €1.1 Billion Loss, 19% Non-Performing Loans
Deutsche Bank CEO says "It's Obvious Many Banks Will Not Survive if Forced to Value Sovereign Debt at Market Prices"
European Equities Hammered; German DAX Down 5%; US Futures Down 2%; Italy 10-Year Yield Sharply Higher at 5.56%; Gold Hits 1900 Again

Gold Hits New High of $1920; Miners Should Follow

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 11:25 PM PDT

It only took 7 sessions to take back a sharp $200 plunge about a week ago.

click on chart for sharper image

In 2008, gold sold off with everything else but treasuries. Miners were crushed. This time I expect gold and miners to do much better in a big market decline, perhaps even rise.

Other Currencies Look Sick

The Euro, the US dollar, the Yen, and the Yuan all look sick for differing reasons. The Eurozone may break apart, Bernanke is likely to double up on QE and the US deficit is out of control, Japan has a horrendous debt problem, and inflation is out of control in china as is China's infrastructure spending and housing bubble.

The one thing the Euro, the US dollar, the Yen, and the Yuan all have in common is competitive currency debasement by central bankers hoping to increase export to everyone else. Mathematically that is impossible.

Once currency stands out (and it's not the Swiss Franc). It's gold.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Trichet Warns Heads of States; Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"; IMF Warns again on Bank Capitalization; Mish Warns Trichet

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 05:12 PM PDT

The warnings are flying today so let's take a look at a few of them, including a couple of my own.

Trichet Warns Heads of States

The New York Times reports Euro Zone Leaders Get Warning From Central Bankers

With stock and bond markets on a roller-coaster ride reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, Jean-Claude Trichet and Mario Draghi, the current and incoming chiefs of the European Central Bank, had a pointed message for European leaders Monday: Get your act together.

Europe's top central bankers couched their admonishment in diplomatic terms during speeches in Paris focusing on the world three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But the warning was clear: politicians are still not moving quickly enough to ensure that the euro zone's debt crisis does not become seriously worse.

Europe needs to "make a quantum step up in economic and political integration," Mr. Draghi said as the bond yields of Greece, Italy and other countries with weak finances jumped Monday amid investor fears that such efforts might be unraveling.

Mr. Draghi's call goes to the heart of what politicians now acknowledge is a root cause of Europe's crisis, but that few seem ready to change: the lack of a federal fiscal union that would make the euro zone look more like the United States. The idea is something that Germany and others are wary of because it could undermine their national authority.

"All this reminds one of the fall of 2008," Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, said in Frankfurt, Bloomberg News reported.

Mr. Trichet, who turns over the E.C.B. presidency to Mr. Draghi at the end of October, renewed calls for a federal European government, with a federal finance ministry. Those institutions would have the power to "impose decisions on countries" whose own policies threaten the rest of the euro union, Mr. Trichet said at the Paris conference, sponsored by the Institute Montaigne, a research group.

In Brussels, meanwhile, an unusual gathering of former European leaders, academics and industrialists urged politicians to recognize that part of the answer to Europe's ills was to relinquish some sovereignty to keep the euro alive.

"It has become clear that a monetary union without some form of fiscal federalism and coordinated economic policy will not work," the group said in a statement. Its members include a former German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder; a former Finnish prime minister, Matti Vanhanen; and Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economist.

Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"

Italy's president is nothing more than a figurehead with little power. Nonetheless, his message comes through loud and clear.

Reuters reports Italian President warns on "alarming" debt signals

Italian President Giorgio Napolitano urged swift action to strengthen planned austerity measures on Monday, saying a severe market selloff was a clear warning that markets had lost confidence in Italy.

"No one can underestimate the alarming signal from today's surge in the differential between the prices of Italian public debt instruments and those of Germany," Napolitano said in a statement.

"It is a sign of the persistent difficulty in regaining trust as is urgently and indispensably required," he said, adding that he urged all parties not to block measures needed to restore credibility.

ECB Warns its Willingness to Buy Bonds "should not be taken for granted"

Here is a pair of bonus warning from the Reuters article.

The ECB has also stepped up its warnings, with Mario Draghi, who takes over as head of the central bank in November, delivering a pointed warning on Monday that its willingness to continue buying bonds "should not be taken for granted."

The CGIL, Italy's largest union, has called a general strike on Tuesday to protest the austerity measures, which have also been condemned as "weak and ineffective" by the country's main employers federation, Confindustria.

A poll published by the left-leaning daily La Repubblica on Monday showed support for Berlusconi's government has crumbled, falling to 22 percent in September, from 27 percent in June and 29 percent in February this year.

The Prime Minister's approval rating falling to 22% is a huge warning sign as is the strike by CGIL. Voters have had enough austerity programs.

In Germany, voters warn Merkel thay have had enough of her.

IMF Renews Warning on Bank Capitalization

France 24 reports IMF head warns again about Europe bank capitalisation

The head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde insisted that European banks needed extra capital, in a magazine interview on Monday.

"We believe that overall it is necessary to recapitalise European banks so that they are strong enough to withstand the risks linked to the debt crisis and weak growth," Lagarde told the weekly magazine Der Spiegel.

Recapitalisation was needed "to avert contagion" of the problems, she said.

German banking shares fell heavily in initial trading on Monday.

Shares in Deutsche Bank were showing a fall of 5.34 percent to 24.63 euros and Commerzbank shares fell by 4.37 percent to 1.84 euros on renewed concern about the eurozone debt crisis owing to new strains over the Greek programme to reform public finances.

Hello Trichet, Draghi How about a Little Realism?

This is my warning to Trichet:

Hello Mr. Trichet.

The odds 17 sovereign states "get their act together" quickly regarding a fiscal union is zero.

There is no agreement on Eurobonds even from Germany and France, so how are 17 countries supposed to quickly agree on that?

Finland and Austria want collateral, and pray tell why shouldn't they? Is every country supposed to do exactly what you want?

Greece is going to default and you and your big ego made matters worse by refusing to accept that fact, so much so that you and the ECB failed to plan for it.

You want 17 countries to get their act together. How about one central bank, the ECB, led by you, get its act together and admit your policies have failed? How about the ECB coming up with a legitimate plan for dealing with it this crisis instead of illegally making demands on sovereign nations?

The market gave you fair warning on Greece and you refused to see it. Now the market has said "time's up".

Face the facts Mr. Trichet "The Euro has failed."

Mr. Trichet, you better come up with a plan to deal with the aftermath, because odds of a Eurozone breakup are large and growing.

Given Trichet was one of the key architects of the now-failed Euro experiment, much of what is happening now is his fault.

General Market Warning

I repeat my general market warning made on August 4: Crashes Happen When "Oversold"

Last evening in an interview with Chris Martenson I said "This is not a prediction Chris, but markets does not crash on overbought conditions, they crash on oversold conditions."

This is not a crash yet, but it could very well be the start of one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

CAM Bank, Taken-Over by Bank of Spain, Reports €1.1 Billion Loss, 19% Non-Performing Loans

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 04:01 PM PDT

On July 25, the Wall Street Journal reported Bank of Spain to Take Over CAM

Spain's central bank said Friday it decided to take over Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo as the country's plans to clean up its ailing savings banks enter their final phase.

Spain's Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, or FROB—which is controlled by the central bank—will take over the management of CAM, inject €2.8 billion ($4 billion) of new capital and prepare to sell it on to another institution. It will also give CAM a €3 billion credit line to ensure it has sufficient liquidity to meet all its obligations.

"As a result, creditors and depositors can be completely at ease," the Bank of Spain said in a statement.

CAM had already requested €2.8 billion in new capital to meet new minimum solvency requirements the Spanish government set earlier this year, which meant that the FROB would have a large stake in the bank. But the Bank of Spain's decision to take over the institution and prepare it for sale signals it believes CAM is no longer a viable stand-alone entity.

CAM Lost €1.1 billion in Recent Announcement

Please consider CAM lost 1.136 billion, delinquencies reached 19%

It do not take long for CAM to blow much of that €2.8 billion injection.

CAM informed the National Securities Market of a loss of 1,136 million euros in the first six months of the year.
The non-performing-loan ratio was 19% as of June 30, 2011 compared to of 9.1% in December 2010.

CAM is tiny relative to all the other European bank issues. However, the important point is to expect to see more Spanish bank implosions because they are coming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Deutsche Bank CEO says "It's Obvious Many Banks Will Not Survive if Forced to Value Sovereign Debt at Market Prices"

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 09:39 AM PDT

Josef Ackermann, CEO of Deutsche Bank admitted the obvious today with statements recognizing that many organizations will fail at mark-to-market pricing. To show you the Fantasyland world these bankers live in, Ackermann also believes European banks are now much better capitalized and less dependent on short-term financing.

Courtesy of Google Translate please consider Many banks will not survive if forced to value sovereign debt at market prices

The chairman of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, today highlighted another obstacle to resolving the debt crisis that crosses the euro zone.

"It is obvious that many organizations will not survive in the event of having to reassess their portfolios of sovereign debt at market prices," Ackerman said in his speech at a banking conference held in Frankfurt.

These comments came after the controversy arose Christine Lagarde, managing director of IMF, which has called for an urgent recapitalization of European banking. According to the institution, the shortage could reach 200,000 million euros, resulting from exposure to sovereign debt.

Ackerman believes that the turmoil facing the financial sector is reminiscent of the crisis suffered in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but also believes that European banks are now much better capitalized and less dependent on short-term financing term.

However, the president of Germany's biggest bank predicted a long period of difficulties for entities to still "have not provided convincing answers to the crisis," while the prospects for revenue growth are "limited to some extent ".

Somehow we are supposed to believe banks do not need to raise capital, even though banks cannot survive mark-to-market pricing, and even though a very biased head of the IMF states that European banks need to raise capital.

Only in the fantasyland world where there are no sovereign debt defaults can banks remotely be considered adequately capitalized. The stress-free tests came to the same conclusion as Ackermann by the same ridiculous measure (assuming no losses on sovereign debt).

Europe rejects IMF call for more bank capital

Reuters reports Europe rejects IMF call for more bank capital

European politicians on Thursday rejected an International Monetary Fund call for banks to raise up to 200 billion euros ($290 billion) in new capital, adding to fears that policymakers may be underestimating the severity of the debt crisis.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde's call on Saturday for mandatory capitalization of European banks to prevent a world recession has reignited a debate over whether they have raised sufficient capital to withstand a severe downturn.

The IMF, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and bank analysts have voiced concerns about a capital shortfall, while European regulators, politicians and banking associations argue that banks have a sufficient cushion to cope with market turbulence and worries over sovereign debt after several rounds of capital raising across the continent.

A European source told Reuters on Wednesday that the IMF had estimated European banks could face a capital shortfall of 200 billion euros, a figure rejected by European bankers and policymakers.

The IMF figure is much higher than European Union estimates of banks' capital needs following stress tests in July which showed banks needed to raise 2.5 billion euros ($3.6 billion), less than had been expected before the tests.

DAX Down 30% from Year's High, Bank Stocks Hammered Again

Bloomberg reports German Stocks Drop to Two-Year Low as Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank Decline

German stocks retreated to their lowest level since August 2009 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party suffered its fifth election loss this year and European services and manufacturing growth weakened in August.

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) fell to its lowest price since March 2009 as the lender is among 17 sued by the U.S. for $196 billion.

The benchmark DAX Index (DAX) slumped 5.3 percent to 5,246.18 at the 5:30 p.m. close in Frankfurt, its third straight decline. The gauge has retreated 30 percent from this year's high on May 2 as reports in Europe and the U.S. spurred concern that the economic recovery is stalling. The drop has left the DAX trading at 8 times the estimated earnings of its companies, the lowest valuation since Bloomberg began collecting the data in 2006. The broader HDAX Index declined 5.2 percent today.

Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, plummeted 8.9 percent to 23.72 euros, its lowest price in more than two years, as it was among 17 banks to be sued by the U.S. to recoup money spent on mortgage-backed securities bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Frankfurt-based lender declined to comment on a Financial Times report that the U.K. Serious Fraud Office is examining Deutsche Bank's packaged securities deals for signs of wrongdoing. The SFO hasn't started an official investigation and is at the stage of gathering evidence, the FT said.

US and European Banks Had Ample Opportunity to Recapitalize

US and European banks had ample opportunity to recapitalize in late 2009 and all of 2010 in the wake of global reflation tactics by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and central bankers in general. They failed to do so.

It's crystal clear to everyone but bankers and brain-dead analysts that banks need to recapitalize, except now it will happen after share prices have collapsed.

Bank of America is now trading at $7.25 (and barring a miracle it will be lower tomorrow). It could have and should have raised capital when shares were close to $20 in April 2010. Of course Bank of America should never have purchased Countrywide Financial or Merrill Lynch in the first place, so one has to wonder what the hell these CEOs do for the enormous salary and benefits compensation they receive.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

European Equities Hammered; German DAX Down 5%; US Futures Down 2%; Italy 10-Year Yield Sharply Higher at 5.56%; Gold Hits 1900 Again

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 08:41 AM PDT

European Indices

Click here to refresh Yahoo!Finance Major World Indices

Asia-Pacific Indices

Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Last month the ECB stepped in to "support" Italian bonds. What is it going to do, buy all of them?

Metals

Much-to-do was made over the recent sharp plunge in gold. The pullback lasted precisely three days and now gold is flirting with all-time highs once again.

In bull markets, sharp pullbacks need to be bought, and in bear markets sharp rallies sold. The only trick is catching the turning point, and that is frequently not easy.

However, given the Eurozone crisis, and the likelihood that central banks and governments everywhere will attempt more fiscal and monetary stimulus, it is foolish to call a top in gold as many have done all year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Before and After Hurricane Irene Pictures

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 12:01 PM PDT

The Hurricane Irene swept through a handful of states, doing a lot of damage to some areas. These before and after pictures illustrate how powerful Irene was, and the destruction it wreaked on some communities.

North Carolina

Manville, New Jersey

Cohoes, New York

Scoharie, New York

Westchester, New York

Quechee, Vermont

Scotia, New York

Connecticut River

Bartonsville, Vermont

Newark, Deleware

Vermont

Brandon, Vermont

Newport, Rhode Island

Hatteras, North Carolina

Margaretville, New York

Labor Day 2011 [infographic]

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 11:29 AM PDT

As a tribute to all of the hard working Americans out there, we have compiled some interesting facts and figures about the U.S. work force just in time for Labor Day.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Source: creditdonkey

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

How to Find Link-Worthy Data

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 01:42 PM PDT

Posted by MarkJohnstone

You might be a little tired of hearing 'content is king'. And it's increasingly difficult to make content stand out online. But a few sites are leading the way with their innovative use of data. There's the Guardian Datablog, Information is Beautiful and the ubiquitous OK Trends to name but a few.

But sites like these are still in the minority. So there's ample opportunity to turn data into links. But first you need to know...

How To Get Your Hands On Some Tasty Data

There's data practically everywhere. There are tonnes of different sources you can use.

APIs and Scraping

If you’ve got some developer resource available, you can pull data from a shed-load of APIs all over the web. Mining Twitter and Facebook are obviously popular, but there are lots of other opportunities.

Programmable Web has a massive list of APIs you can tap into. Speaking at a recent Distilled conference (Boston ProSEO), Dharmesh Shah suggested signing up to the RSS feed from Programmable Web – not because you need to know everything that’s coming out, but for the ideas it will trigger as you go along. It can save you bucket-loads of time if you’re able to pluck out an idea from a while back that 'll work perfectly for a new project.

If there’s no API, scraping is always an option. And even if the API is available, scraping can be preferable for doing things on the fly, and for the less technically-able (like me). There are a couple of great resources that have already been written on this - check out the following:

And if you’re really getting into scraping, you should also check out ScraperWiki. You can find out more about ScraperWiki here and here - especially for those who don't code.

Surveys

This is a pretty simple one really. You can create surveys using Mechanical Turk in the same way as Will’s Panda questionnaire.

If you’re using Mechanical Turk, there are some challenges you should be aware of with regards to statistical significance, i.e. are the people doing work via Mechanical Turk really representative of the intended population? But these kinds of objections can often be worked around by being upfront about where your data has come from. Don’t try to bury your sources – if people can’t find them, they won’t trust you. And if they have to seriously dig to get them, somebody will oust you. Put them up front. Be very transparent.

The beauty of using survey data is you can ask exactly what you want to ask. There can be nothing more frustrating than having a great idea, and searching for hours to find a dataset to support it, only to abandon the project.

Open Data

This is a huge one. Open data is a very hot topic, with more and more governments succumbing to pressure to open up their data. As an example of how you can use open data, the following graphic by 97th Floor was created using a publicly available data source. And Open Site Explorer shows 203 root domains linking to the page on which it appears (!).

Rather than searching through various government datasets, the Guardian Datablog have a search engine that allows you to search all of the open data sources from around the world. And they're continually adding to it as more and more countries open up their data.

For other publicly available datasets, the following sites have some fairly extensive lists:

Academic Papers

In a similar vein to open data, academic papers and journals can be a great source of valuable information. The problem with academic papers is they aren’t written for the public. They’re buried in the depths of the web and barely anyone outside academia reads them. They tend to be very dry and completely inaccessible. But they often contain really valuable content. You just need to turn them into something appealing and easy to understand.

You’re not necessarily being rewarded for being the source of the information, but for digging it out and turning it into a much more consumable and enjoyable format. If might take a bit of effort, but that’s where you’re adding the value.

Another great thing about these papers and journals is they've been properly researched in an academic fashion. And you're quoting very respected sources, which will give your content added weight. Nothing like quoting a few .edus to add some gravitas.

To find academic journals, try Google Scholar or SpringerLink.

Google

One massively overlooked data source – especially by SEOs – is our old friend Google. As well as providing lots of tools to process data, they're a useful source as well. For starters, they have this list of data sources you can explore. But there's also the headsmackingly obvious - Google Insights and Google Keyword Tool.

Yes, I'm serious. Although we're in a niche where everybody knows about them, the majority of the public still have no idea you can see behind Google and find out what everyone’s searching for and what the trends are. When I first showed it to some of my friends, they were genuinely amazed.

There could be some really easy wins you could make without much effort at all. For examples of simple things you could do, check out these 2 posts by David McCandless. You could easily do a quick and dirty press release on online trends that could get some decent coverage.

Client Data

Client data is ideal but there can be a few difficulties. The advantage of using client data is you can announce something genuinely new - that wasn't previously in the public domain. However, there are a number of things to be aware of when using internal data:

Some companies will be reluctant to give you access, mostly due to concerns about competitive intelligence
There may be delays in getting the data to you, which can impede your ability to deliver on time
The data will often have missing entries and errors, and may even be completely unusable
The dataset may be too small to be reliable (especially when you start segmenting)

It's worth raising the above when you first discuss the possibility of using internal data, so you manage expectations. If you do end up using the data, you have to be careful you don't over-state your findings. As mentioned previously, you should clearly state how you sourced your data, so as not to be misleading. As long as you do this, you can still create something worthwhile. It’s still a story - or at least it should be if you're planning on putting it out there.

Anything I've Missed?

So there you have it - you need never be short of data again. But if there are any major sources of data you think I've missed, be sure to add them to the comments below.

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