Two weeks ago today, Google released “Ripples” for Google+ and most of the world went on with their daily activities. Personally I thought it was just another one of those features that was interesting but nothing I could really use. That was until this Whiteboard+ video which I filmed with Rand. Both Rand and I were blown away at the amount of data a Ripple gives you and what you can do with it.
What is a Ripple
The definition of a “ripple effect” is: a spreading effect or series of consequences caused by a single action or event. When it comes to Google+ a Ripple is an interactive diagram that shows how a Google+ post spreads as it’s shared by users. You can find the Ripple of any public post using the dropdown to the right of the post.
You can quickly see who the top sharers of your content are, the timeline for which it was shared and other statistics. A quick look at this post shared by the Dalai Lama shows that there have been 1,414 recent public shares of this post. You can zoom into each circle and see the sharing within different circles.
At the bottom of the page, Google shows you the top Influencers, stats about how the post spread and the different Languages of the sharers. We’re going to dig into how to use the Influencer information to help you get your content shared by the right influencers, not only on Google+ but on other social sites as well.
Make That Ripple Effect Happen
Sometimes getting an influencer to share your content can be very difficult, if not impossible. Ripples provides an easy way for you to investigate who are the influencers of the influencers. Let me give you an example of how this might work in a real world situation. Let’s say I write a blog post on Google Analytics and am hoping to get Avinash Kaushik to share it, since he is a leader in the Analytics area. However, I don’t have a direct relationship with Avinash, so I need to find someone approachable who does.
Step 1 - Find an influencer
Look at Avinash’s Google+ page and see what type of content he is sharing with his circles. Find a post that he shared that has quite a few shares and view that Ripple. Look for a Ripple where the original poster has an account that is in a reasonable amount of Circles. Below is a Ripple I found that is perfect since it was originally shared by user with a small but strong following.
Since Avinash shared Michael’s content, there is some form of trust between Avinash and Michael. Even if it’s a fluke, there is a good chance that Michael may be an influencer on a different social network and could still be worth contacting.
Step 2 - Make a connection
Reach out to Michael and make a connection. All of his contact methods are displayed in his profile on Google+. Most users have linked their Google+ account to their Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn accounts which gives you plenty of ways to reach out and make a connection. Establish some sort of “relationship” before asking him to share your content. I suggest that you provide something of value first or other comment on something he has posted as the first point of interaction.
Once a connection is made, share your content with him via Google+ and ask him to share. With luck he will share your content and it will catch the eye of Avinash and he will re-share it exposing it to thousands of more people than you had before. Even if Avinash doesn’t re-share it, you did get Michael to share your content and expose it to another group of people outside of your norm. Plus there is a chance that he will expose your content on other social networks which he may have more visibility on.
Step 3 - Rinse and repeat
Obviously you don’t want to put all your eggs in one basket with Michael. Continue to see who Avinash is re-sharing and reach out to those people as well. Soon you will have contacted a large number of people who Avinash trusts and the chances of him seeing your post are much higher.
Another Ripple Effect Example
Below is a Ripple of a post recently shared by Cyrus Shepard. His post was re-shared by Jason Morrison which then John Muller of Google shared. Now even though only one person in John’s circles re-shared it, it was still put in front of a much wider audience thanks to John’s share.
Future Ripple Uses
If Google+ continues to create things like Ripples that share large amounts of data on how users are interacting with your posts, I could see Facebook stepping up their game with the current version of Insights. Think about if you could see how your Tweets were shared and what effect power users have on sharing your content.
Lastly, Ripples is “very experimental” according to Google which means that their is no clear vision where this is going. There have been no rumors of this ever making it to an API version or anything beyond what the current Ripple version does. Do you have any plans to use Ripples and how do you plan to use it?
I want to introduce you to a few federal employees who are serving our country every day, and who are thinking about ways to make sure your tax dollars aren't wasted.
Yesterday, President Obama announced the four finalists for the 2011 SAVE Award, an annual contest for federal employees to submit their ideas for cutting costs by making government more effective and efficient.
We need your help to determine this year's winner – help us choose who gets to discuss their idea with President Obama.
This year, nearly 20,000 ideas were submitted from federal employees across the country. There were a lot of great ideas, but in the end, these four really stood out:
Matthew Ritsko, NASA: At Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA employees purchase specialized tools and ground support equipment for developing and building flight projects. Many of the tools are not tracked once projects are complete, and as a result funds are wasted on duplicative purchases. In order to cut down on repeat purchases, Matthew suggests creating a centralized tool repository – or "lending library" – where these tools can be stored, catalogued, and checked in and out by NASA employees.
Eileen Hearty, Department of Housing and Urban Development: All across the country, HUD contractors and staff conduct annual Management and Occupancy Reviews of multifamily properties (i.e. apartments) that are privately-owned and subsidized by HUD. Many of these properties receive high marks year after year and consistently provide excellent service. Eileen proposes a reduction in the frequency of reviews for high-performing properties – a change that would reward superior properties for their excellent work and reduce the travel costs, staff time, and fees paid by HUD for these reviews.
Kevin Korzeniewski, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency: When Kevin began working as an attorney in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, he automatically received a new set of U.S. Code books that get updated and reordered every year. Because the information in these books is now available online through LexisNexis, Westlaw, and free sources – where it is also updated in real time – Kevin suggests that his agency stop automatically ordering these books.
Faith Stanfield, Social Security Administration: Every quarter, the Social Security Administration (SSA) produces and mails OASIS, a 25-plus-page, glossy magazine to 88,000 SSA employees all across the country and more than 1,000 retired SSA employees. The OASIS magazine has been around for decades; however, as more and more SSA communications shift online, Faith suggests that the magazine be released only in an online format to save money on printing and shipping that could be put to better use elsewhere.
The SAVE Award is just one of many ways we're working to ensure that none of your hard-earned tax dollars go to waste. Yesterday, President Obama signed an Executive Order instructing federal agencies to reduce spending by 20 percent on things like travel, cell phones, laptops and other devices that can be issued to employees, printing documents that can be posted online, and unnecessary plaques, mugs, water bottles, and other frivolous swag.
For three years now, federal employees from across the government have submitted their ideas to help streamline and modernize their departments and agencies. These are the folks who know the system best, people who have a genuine understanding of the nitty-gritty details.
All their ideas help to save taxpayers money and make sure the government better serves the American people. And this is a chance to make sure that each of them is recognized for their foresight and creativity.
But only one of them will get a chance to sit down with the President and present their proposal. And it's up to you to choose who that is.
Last week Google released yet another algorithm update, and although it wasn't Panda 2.6 or Panda 2.5.2, it has affected up to 35% of searches. The newly-named ‘freshness update’ is built on the Caffeine update that was launched last year, allowing Google to provide the very latest content.
Google's Amit Singhal states that
"Given the incredibly fast pace at which information moves in today's world, the most recent information can be from the last week, day or even minute, and depending on the search terms, the algorithm needs to be able to figure out if a result from a week ago about a TV show is recent, or if a result from a week ago about breaking news is too old."
This seems to be a very timely release, especially in the UK, with lots of hot topics currently trending on the web and on social media, including Frankie Cocozza being kicked off the X Factor, the England poppy fiasco and Carlos Tevez leaving Manchester. With all these topics trending across the web, the freshness update has provided us with the very latest information on the subject from the last day, hour or even minute. There has been a lot of information around about the freshness update and here is Google's official announcement.
So we know that the algorithm will do the following:
Shows the lasted information on hot topics, trending stories and breaking news.
Provides the latest information on regular and upcoming events including concerts, Olympics, General Elections, etc.
Identify the very latest information on product releases, product reviews and information.
So what does this all mean for large brands?
Brands
For the majority of brands I don't see this having a significant effect on their current rankings, especially those that are targeting very generic terms such as "car insurance" or "tents". These terms are not generally in the news or terms that would be considered hot topics, but more research queries.
The issue will be where brands target key phrases that are constantly having new content produced, such as product reviews and releases. As a user you will want to see the very latest information on new products and the most up to date reviews. This would mean that the brand needs to devise a content strategy around specific product keywords to ensure that the very latest information is available to the user.
In theory, brands could use the algorithm to their advantage. Staying with the topic of Carlos Tevez leaving Manchester without consent, a sports brand could potentially write some great content about the story and rank well for a short period of time, generating a spike in traffic but also increasing brand exposure to a different audience. The traffic generated might also provide links to help the page sustain some rankings in the future, whilst also creating an increase in revenue from new visitors. All this at the moment is theory, but could it be potentially used as a short term tactic?
What are your thoughts on the latest freshness update? How do you think it will affect large brands? Could brands use this to their advantage by creating content around a hot topic or event to generate a short-term traffic boost? I look forward to hearing your comments below and of course on Twitter @danielbianchini.
We've all heard the parable of the kid throwing back the starfish, even though there are a million on the beach. "It makes a difference to that one!"
The Long Tail argues that if you can aggregate enough choices, people will make a choice and you'll do fine. Netflix, superstores, eBay--these are all long tail businesses. They might not sell that thing, but you can bet they're going to sell something.
Long tail businesses excel at selling anything, but they're not so good at selling one thing.
Which is fine, unless you're a starfish.
In a world of endless choice, it's mathematically obvious that something's going to get picked, but you, you the creator, the marketer, the one with something at stake--you're not at all concerned about something. You're concerned about you and your product.
If you're a starfish, then, don't sign up with the long tail guys. Build your own universe, your own permission asset. Find a tribe, lead it, connect with it, become the short head, the one and only, the one that we'd miss if you were gone.
The long tail is for organizations that own warehouses.
A federal judge today blasted 40 years of slap-on-the-wrist, no-admission-of guilt deals the SEC has reached with Citigroup.
In the latest deal, with no admission of guilt, the SEC fined Citigroup for $160 million in illicit profits, even though regulators claim Citigroup profited by $700 million.
A federal judge sharply questioned the Securities and Exchange Commission about why it didn't force Citigroup Inc. to admit to "what the facts are" before the agency agreed to settle a mortgage-bond case for $285 million.
During an hour-long hearing Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Jed S. Rakoff, an outspoken critic of the SEC's approach to securities-fraud settlements, challenged the SEC on why the regulator allowed Citigroup to settle the case using boilerplate language in which it neither admits or denies wrongdoing.
"Why does that make any sense in this context?" the judge said.
Judge Rakoff didn't issue a decision on the Citi settlement Wednesday, saying he wants to think about the case and issue an opinion later. He also expressed other concerns.
He questioned why the SEC only sought $160 million in alleged illicit profits—the regulator claims Citigroup profited from the deal—when investors may have lost more than $700 million in the deal.
"They're out something like $600 million, so the net effect of this is, you're only returning a small fraction of what the plaintiff's lost, yes?" the judge asked.
The judge also asked Citigroup lawyer Brad Karp if the company admitted to the allegations. He said the company didn't. "If it's any consolation, we don't deny them either," Mr. Karp said.
No Lessons Learned, Citi Still Too Big to Exist
As long as the rules of the game are such there is no chance of being fined more than illegal profits are made, banks will ignore rules and go for illegal profits.
The SEC has learned nothing from these deals, but the financial sector has. Banks have learned they will profit more from illegal activities than they will be fined if they are caught. The added bonus is they are unlikely to get caught in the first place.
Realization the Eurozone is no longer tenable is at long last at hand. In fact, "intense discussions" have been underway for months but are just now admitted to by senior EU officials.
U.S. stocks extended declines following a report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party wants to make it possible for European nations to exit the euro area.
Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party wants to make it possible for European Union members to exit the euro area, Handelsblatt reported in a preview of an article to be published tomorrow, citing unnamed participants in the discussion.
A commission within the party, that is crafting a framework to be presented at a party meeting, has proposed allowing a euro member who doesn't want to or isn't able to comply with the common currency rules to leave the euro region without losing membership in the EU, the newspaper said.
France and Germany have "Intense Consultations" on Smaller Eurozone
"France and Germany have had intense consultations on this issue over the last months, at all levels," a senior EU official in Brussels told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
"We need to move very cautiously, but the truth is that we need to establish exactly the list of those who don't want to be part of the club and those who simply cannot be part," the official said.
The change has been discussed on an "intellectual" level but had not moved to operational or technical discussions, the EU official said.
A French finance ministry spokesman denied there was any project in the works to reduce the currency bloc's membership.
"There have been no conversations between French and German authorities at any level on decreasing the size of the euro zone," the spokesman said .
A radical overhaul of the European Union would be opposed by many members.
"This will unravel everything our forebears have painstakingly built up and repudiate all that they stood for in the past sixty years," one EU diplomat told Reuters."This will redraw the map geopolitically and give rise to new tensions. It could truly be the end of Europe as we know it."
Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied
We now have an official denial from France that breakup conversations are taking place. This contradicts an admission by others that such discussion are taking place.
According to the 1980's British sitcom Yes Minister, "The first rule of politics," Sir Humphrey, the wily civil servant in the show, insists is: "never believe anything until it is officially denied." Eurozone Breakup Inevitable, But How?
The Eurozone is a failed experiment. A breakup is inevitable just as it has been from the beginning. Structural flaws were too great, built up over the years. No currency union in history has ever survived unless there was also a fiscal union.
It would be best for all involved if Germany left the Eurozone and went back to the Deutschmark. Germany would have an immediately credible currency. Should Greece or Spain leave first, those countries might experience hyperinflation or massive inflation.
It's important to remember that Germany suffers regardless. As long as the Eurozone stays intact (it can't and won't over the long haul) German taxpayers have to keep acting bailing out foreign countries, foreign banks, and their own banks.
On the other hand, were Germany to leave, the debts to German banks will not be paid back in Deutschmarks but rather deflated Euros.
On the whole, Germany exiting the Eurozone would be less disruptive, than massive inflation scenarios in Greece, Portugal, and Spain.
If France wants to stay in the Euro, let them. They can have the ECB as well. Then the ECB will print money to bail out the French banks (just as French president Sarkozy wants).
Sarkozy may not want a collapse of the Euro, but it would happen. The message here is simple: If you are in Euros, get the hell out.
Regulators have said European banks need to come up with additional capital. The amounts vary from 8 to 413 billion Euros.
Anything less than 200 billion Euros (the IMF's proposed number) is preposterous. Given the rout in Italian bonds today and the gloomy outlook for Spain and Portugal, even 400 billion Euros is far too low.
One Trillion Euros would not be surprising.
The number that Merkel and Sarkozy hammered out with banks is a lousy 106 billion Euros. However, more stories are out today showing the intent of banks is to raise 0 billion in additional capital (because they don't need to!)
Banks in Europe are undercutting regulators' demands that they boost capital by declaring assets they hold less risky today than they were yesterday.
Banco Santander SA, Spain's largest lender, and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, the second-biggest, say they can go halfway to adding 13.6 billion euros ($18.8 billion) of capital by changing how they calculate risk-weightings, the probability of default lenders assign to loans, mortgages and derivatives. The practice, known as "risk-weighted asset optimization," allows banks to boost capital ratios without cutting lending, selling assets or tapping shareholders.
Regulators in Europe, seeking to stem the region's sovereign-debt crisis, ordered banks last month to increase core capital to 9 percent of risk-weighted assets by the end of June. Lenders, facing a 106 billion-euro shortfall, are reluctant to plug the gap by cutting dividends or bonuses and are struggling to sell assets or raise cash in rights offerings. Politicians are trying to stop banks from the alternative, cutting back lending, because it could trigger a recession.
"By allowing sophisticated banks to do their own modeling, we are allowing the poacher to participate in being the game- keeper," said Adrian Blundell-Wignall, deputy director of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's financial and enterprise affairs division in Paris. "That risks making core capital ratios useless."
Commerzbank, Lloyds
Spanish banks aren't alone in using the practice. Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA, Italy's fourth-biggest bank, said it will change its risk-weighting model instead of turning to investors for the 1.5 billion euros regulators say it needs. Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender, said it will do the same. Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, and HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's largest bank, both said they cut risk-weighted assets by changing the model.
The IMF recapitalization need is 200 billion Euros, a figure I think is exceptionally low because it ignores writedowns on Portuguese, Spanish, and Irish debt (and of course Italian debt as well). It also presumes Greek losses will be pegged at 50% when losses are likely to be in the 70-90% range.
Nonetheless, the agreement worked out by Merkel reduced that 200 billion euro figure down to 106 billion.
However, appearances may be deceiving because month-over-month comparisons are easy and the three-month moving average is still falling.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 1.1 percent in October after three consecutive negative months: -1.0 in September, -1.4 percent in August and -0.2 percent in July.
The October data offers a welcome relief from the double-dip fears that were rampant a month ago, but one month does not mean a new trend. Until we get a series of positive months, it remains a she-loves-me, she-lovesme- not economy with bad news followed by good followed by bad.
Moreover, the positive month-on-month news in October is relative to a very disappointing September result. Though the growth in October offsets the September decline, it doesn't offset the cumulative decline including August and July. The average of the last three months has declined compared with the previous three months at an annualized rate of 5.8 percent, and the PCI remains lower than it was during most of the first half of 2011.
About Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers.
Year-Over-Year Growth of PCI
Retail Sales and the PCI: Inventories in Motion
Ceridian reports ....
The growth in real GDP is to a large extent driven by growth in consumer spending. In the above figure, both the PCI and the real retail sales have been normalized by their maximum value, making it easy to see that both declined from their peak values by 13 or 14 percent.
Last year the disconnect between the PCI and real retail sales was resolved with a burst in trucking activity, which seems most likely this year although some commentaries suggest retail sales are falling short of expectations.
US retail sales rose in October but growth decelerated and fell below market expectations as retailers head into a holiday shopping season of fragile sentiment and fierce competition.
In spite of a weak economy, sales increased 3.8 per cent from a year ago to rack up a 26th successive monthly rise, according to Retail Metrics. But they fell below analyst forecasts of 4.4 per cent growth and below the 5 per cent-plus increases of the previous three months.
Fifty four per cent of the retailers that report monthly sales fell short of expectations, among them both those that reported overall increases and declines.
In September, half of the retail sales gains were in autos. Yet, Auto sales are counted when cars are shipped to dealers, not when they are sold to consumers.
Chrysler Group LLC's October U.S. auto sales rose 27% while General Motors Co. climbed just 1.7% amid a mixed picture for the largest U.S. auto makers.
GM suffered declines in all its brands except Chevrolet, the Detroit auto maker said on Tuesday. Its dealer inventory was up 15% from a year ago and up 6.1% from September.
The auto maker reported total sales for the month of 186,895 vehicles. Its Chevrolet sales rose 6% while Cadillac sales fell 11.9%, Buick declined 7% and GMC sales dropped 4.6%. Overall, GM's retail sales were up 2.6% ...
Sales down and dealer inventory up 15% at GM.
The key takeaway from last months "good" GM sales report is it was largely based on channel stuffing. "Sales" get reported when cars are shipped to the dealer and cars are stacking up at GM dealers.
I do not think sales, especially auto sales, were as robust as reported. Even if they were, there is no reasonable expectation the increase in sales should continue.
Italy has a debt rollover needs and the market just shut off efficient funding across the entire yield curve. There is no place to hide while waiting for the long-end of the curve to calm down.
Italian government debt yields are above 7% from 2-year bonds all the way to 10-year bonds, with an inversion in 3-year and 5-year yields vs. 10-year yields. Moreover the 2-year yield is very close to inversion as well.
Sovereign Debt Table Italy vs. Germany
Duration
Germany
Italy
Spread
2-Year
0.36
7.18
6.82
3-Year
0.49
7.55
7.06
5-Year
0.89
7.59
6.70
10-Year
1.73
7.25
5.52
Note that the spread between German and Italian 3-year bonds exceeds 7%.
This capture is at about 10:45 Central, after the market calmed down a bit. Here is a chart to show the "calming".
Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Yields are well below the highs of the day, yet still up significantly.
Expect emergency meetings at the ECB, IMF, EMU, EU, and Italian Government to start anytime. Actually they are probably underway right now.
The so-called deposit factor charged for Italian bonds due in seven-to-10 years will be raised to 11.65 percent, LCH Clearnet SA said in a document on its website dated yesterday. That compares with a charge of 6.65 percent announced in an Oct. 7 document. The additional charges will be applied from close- of-day positions today, LCH said.
Roman Empire Under Pressure
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, pinged me with these comments.
Major investment banks calculate the "margin call" to be around 4-5 billion EUR as of tomorrow.
The Italian situation is very complicated – on one hand Berlusconi has promised to step down, on the other there are no alternatives to him in the opposition, there is no real hope for majority for "someone else".
Berlusconi has a long history of comebacks, and being 75 years old he has little to lose. The main issue remains whether Italy truly moves forward with austerity and reforms. One without the other has no value for market and for building a fire-wall around Italy.
The facts are simple: No one but Italy itself can save Italy under present conditions.
ECB intervening is merely delaying the inevitable. Italy needs to move forward.
Only two countries has had lower growth than Italy since 2000 – Haiti and Zimbabwe!
This is the present outlook for 2011 and 2012:
Conclusions
A bureaucrat government in Greece and potentially Italy will not solve anything. What's needed in both countries are:
A government elected to deal with crisis
A plan for creating growth and reforms
An austerity plan underwritten by politicians, labor unions and employers.
That does not seem likely for now, in either country.
At a bare minimum we will have another month of uncertainty. A concerning trivia remains in place: When a country passes 6.5% in 10 year yield – the call for help from the IMF has only been 14 days behind. Italy is different, but the timeline is running out.
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