joi, 22 decembrie 2011

The Best of 2011 - Posts & People Who Rocked Our World

The Best of 2011 - Posts & People Who Rocked Our World


The Best of 2011 - Posts & People Who Rocked Our World

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 03:25 PM PST

Posted by jennita

What's better than unicorns and kittens happily leaping over rainbows with gold at the end? The Moz community, that's what!

At the end of every year we like to take a look back, not only at which posts made an impact, but which people made an impact on the community as well.

This year we're taking a peek at the top content on the blog based on thumbs up, visits, root domains, tweets and comments. Plus we have the added bonus of looking at community members who left the most comments, and those whose comments were the most thumbed up. If you've missed any of these posts over the past year, I invite you to grab a cup of coffee and start reading. I look forward to hearing about your favorite posts, plus your thoughts on why these posts did so well this year.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, I wanted to again remember GoodnewsCowboy, a long time community member whom we lost to cancer earlier this year. GNC was an amazing man and is sorely missed around here.

For quick reference, check out the Top Posts of 2011 by:
Thumbs Up
Unique Visits
Linking Root Domains
Tweets
Total Number of Comments

And the community members who rocked our world:
Top Comments of 2011 by Thumbs Up
Top Users of 2011 By Total Comments

A few notes about the data: 1. I'm no scientist, I did my best putting this together and I apologize now if I've screwed anything up. 2. All data was pulled in the past 24 hours, so some of the numbers may have changed slightly. 3. I'm not a scientist. :) Plus, I need to send a huge thank you to Casey Henry who helped me gather quite a bit of this data. Thank you Casey!

Top Posts of 2011 By Thumbs Up

Let's get this party started. First things first, I wanted to note that last year there were three posts with 100 or more thumbs up. This year, there were 41 posts with over 100 thumbs up. FORTY ONE. That's just crazy pants (as Joanna Lord would say). This of course made me want to figure out if the thumbs up was just a general inflation, better content, more traffic, what. I think you'll see it's a generous helping of all of that combined. For the first time the blog schedule was pretty well organized (ehem.. I may be the one who organizes this ;), we specifically reached out to get great guest bloggers, we added more amazing Associates to write for the blog and our traffic was through the roof (more on that later). But enough of my mumblings, let's get to the good stuff.

jennita

Thumbs Up: Help Raise Money for New Zealand
March 3rd, 2011 - Posted by jennita
This post is actually the top post in every single category listed below. But in order to show off more great content, I pulled it from the other lists since it dominated them all. :) I wanted to call it out here and again thank everyone for all their donations to the New Zealand Red Cross after the horrible earthquakes earlier this year. It was absolutely amazing to see the community come together so quickly.

Aaron Wheeler

1. How Google's Panda Update Changed SEO Best Practices Forever - Whiteboard Friday
June 23rd, 2011 - Posted by Aaron Wheeler
Panda. As the title says, Google Panda changed SEO forever and everyone wanted to watch the video about it. Number one Yo!

Dr. Pete

2. Duplicate Content in a Post-Panda World
November 16th, 2011 - Posted by Dr. Pete
Panda... again. Pete knocks this one out of the ball park and inbound marketers across the globe liked this puppy. In fact people liked it so much they asked for him to make a PDF version that they could print out for themselves and others. Sweet.

randfish

3. The Responsibilities of SEO Have Been Upgraded
July 12th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
So, an SEO isn't just an SEO anymore, we've become so much more. Inbound Marketing anyone?

invseo

4. How Organized Spam is Taking Control of Google's Search Results
January 28th, 2011 - Posted by invseo
Whee! This awesome posted started out in YouMoz and very quickly got promoted to the main blog. It really got people riled up as we headed into the new year.

randfish

5. 4 Graphics to Help Illustrate On-Page SEO
November 8th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
In grand Rand fashion, he put together these great images that will help us to demonstrate a bit easier what on-page SEO really is. You know for that boss or client who just doesn't get it. ;)

jamesagate

6. Which Type of Link Anchor Text is the Most Effective? [An Experiment]
October 11th, 2011 - Posted by jamesagate
Another top post that started off in YouMoz (YAY YouMoz!!) and won the hearts of the community. James ran an experiment and walked us through what seemed to work best!

Oli Gardner

7. The Noob Guide to Online Marketing (With Giant INFOGRAPHIC)
February 9th, 2011 - Posted by Oli Gardner
I'm not quite sure this one even needs any introduction. If you're reading this post, I'm sure you've already seen the Noob Guide (as we call it around the office). Once again Oli hits the top 10 list with an infographic (he was on it last year too #goOli!).

iPullRank

8. Just How Smart Are Search Robots?
November 29th, 2011 - Posted by iPullRank
They are smarter than you think, and Mike King explains it all, Pacman style!

randfish

9. Quantifying the Impact of Google's Keyword Referral Data Shutdown
November 14th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Whoa, whoa, whoa! What's up with this (not provided) bs?

Justin Briggs

10. Better Understanding Link-based Spam Analysis Techniques
July 31st, 2011 - Posted by Justin Briggs
Justin gets into the mind of a search engine to help us understand link-based spam detection. Sounds geektastical, doesn't it?!

Top Posts of 2011 By Unique Visits

Great, we've seen the posts that got the most thumbs up, but are they the same as the ones that got the most traffic? I'll give you a hint, only two of the top thumbed, are the same as the most trafficked. Which means eight of them are different. The question is, does this mean these posts got a lot of traffic from new users that didn't create accounts in order to thumb up the posts? Sadly we may never know. I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments though. Now let's look a the traffic!

Oli Gardner

1. The Noob Guide to Online Marketing (With Giant INFOGRAPHIC)
February 9th, 2011 - Posted by Oli Gardner
Yep, you'll notice a trend here... the Noob Guide is on ALL OF THE LISTS. :) #goOli

Aaron Wheeler

2. How Google's Panda Update Changed SEO Best Practices Forever - Whiteboard Friday
June 23rd, 2011 - Posted by Aaron Wheeler
Pppppppppanda!

randfish

3. White Hat SEO: It F@$#ing Works
April 10th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
This was in response to a post claiming that White hat SEO is a joke, which Rand easily proved otherwise.

caseyhen

4. The New Google Social Network - Google+
June 30th, 2011 - Posted by caseyhen
z0mg! Google created a social network that doesn't suck! Everyone go get your account noooowwwwwwww.

Cyrus Shepard

5. 10 Ugly SEO Tools that Actually Rock
September 5th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
Apparently people like ugly. Kidding, kidding. What this really says is that people love tools and especially ones that kick booty.

randfish

6. Facebook + Twitter's Influence on Google's Search Rankings
April 19th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Rand takes a look at some early correlation data on social influence in Google SERPs. You'll notice a trend this year and that's social, social, social.

Aaron Wheeler

7. An SEO Checklist for New Sites - Whiteboard Friday
September 22nd, 2011 - Posted by Aaron
And the crowd went wild! Seriously though, everyone knows someone who has a new website, and they came to watch this one in droves.

Cyrus Shepard

8. Blog Design for Killer SEO - Infographic
July 12th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
These days everyone tries their hand at Infographics. But Cyrus (and his wife who designed it) put the "fogra" back in Infographics. It's a great visual on blog design with SEO in mind.

Cyrus Shepard

9. Beating Google's Panda Update - 5 Deadly Content Sins
August 16th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
Everyone wanted to learn how to make sure they didn't get hit by Panda, or pull themselves out of the Panda abyss.

randfish

10. New Edition of the Ranking Factors for 2011 is Now Live!
June 6th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Can I get a w00t w00t!

Top Posts of 2011 by Linking Root Domains

Well we're SEOs aren't we? Then we must take a look at the posts that have received the most backlinks! The best way to do this is to look at the number of linking root domains instead of total number of backlinks. As with everything else, you'll notice that last year there were three posts with over 100 linking root domains. However this year, there were twelve posts with over 100. SEO really does work?! What?!

randfish

1. Facebook + Twitter's Influence on Google's Search Rankings
April 19th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Everyone who wrote a post about how Facebook & Twitter are now helping with rankings, must have linked to this post. Love!

Aaron Wheeler

2. How Google's Panda Update Changed SEO Best Practices Forever - Whiteboard Friday
June 23rd, 2011 - Posted by Aaron Wheeler
Poor little photos of pandas all across the web being used in posts about Google Panda. All the while linking to this highly informative Whiteboard Friday.

jennita

3. A Tweet's Effect On Rankings - An Unexpected Case Study
February 15th, 2011 - Posted by jennita
Well lookie there, I MADE IT TO THE LIST. I don't need no stinking thumbs or traffic, I'm down with the backlinks! :) (ok... I'll move on now)

Oli Gardner

4. The Noob Guide to Online Marketing (With Giant INFOGRAPHIC)
February 9th, 2011 - Posted by Oli Gardner
Noob. Guide. 'Nuf. Said.

randfish

5. Google's Farmer/Panda Update: Analysis of Winners vs. Losers
March 3rd, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Oooh everyone wants to know who made out well with Panda and who got crushed.

Tom Critchlow

6. Google +1 And The Rise of Social SEO
March 30th, 2011 - Posted by Tom Critchlow
Remember when Google +1 came out before Google+? Yea, that was odd. Anyway... Tom wrote a great post on how it changed SEO!

Cyrus Shepard

7. Blog Design for Killer SEO - Infographic
July 12th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
Infographics = links.

Cyrus Shepard

8. Experiments on Google+ and Twitter Influencing Search Rankings
July 5th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
Hmm more talk of this social thing helping SEO, we might be on to something here.

randfish

9. White Hat SEO: It F@$#ing Works
April 10th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
And if you haven't read this post yet, go F@$#ing read it! (sorry for the bad language, but Rand started it)

randfish

10. Social Annotations in Search: Now Your Social Network = Rankings
June 22nd, 2011 - Posted by randfish
If your aunt Betsy shares a post about gluten free brownies, you might see that in your SERPS. Wait. What?!

Top Posts of 2011 by Tweets

Ya'll have been tweeting your little fingers off this year. In 2010 there were only two posts with over 1,000 tweets, but in 2011 there were 55. This may very well be the reason for all that traffic above. :) I need to give a huge thanks to Dr. Pete for gathering this data for me at the last minute (that's how I role). Now let's see what people like to tweet about. I should probably note that five of the 10 top tweeted posts ARE ABOUT TWITTER. heh. I know what I'm going to be writing about more in 2012.

Oli Gardner

1. The Noob Guide to Online Marketing (With Giant INFOGRAPHIC)
February 9th, 2011 - Posted by Oli Gardner
Holy tweets batman.

caseyhen

2. Yes, You Really Can Build Links With Twitter - Whiteboard Friday
September 1st, 2011 - Posted by caseyhen
You can build links with Twitter? OMG I have to tweet this!

randfish

3. Facebook + Twitter's Influence on Google's Search Rankings
April 19th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
This is starting to be like deja vu. :)

Cyrus Shepard

4. 10 Ugly SEO Tools that Actually Rock
September 5th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
Any time I see a post being tweeted that has the word "ugly" in it, I totally click. Cyrus is a tweetbait master, who knew?!

Aaron Wheeler

5. How Google's Panda Update Changed SEO Best Practices Forever - Whiteboard Friday
June 23rd, 2011 - Posted by Aaron Wheeler
Panda. SEO. Changed. Forever.

jennita

6. A Tweet's Effect On Rankings - An Unexpected Case Study
February 15th, 2011 - Posted by jennita
Ooh Ooh Ooh! That's me again. (Every post from here on forward shall be about Twitter)

Cyrus Shepard

7. Experiments on Google+ and Twitter Influencing Search Rankings
July 5th, 2011 - Posted by Cyrus Shepard
Google+. Twitter. Rankings. Tweet it.

dohertyjf

8. The Tweet Effect: How Twitter Affects Rankings
June 1st, 2011 - Posted by dohertyjf
Hehehe this is just getting funny the number of top tweeted posts talking about twitter. It's so meta I might cry. But really, John's post rocked the twitters.

randfish

9. Tracking the KPIs of Social Media
September 7th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Love, love, love this post. I may have even tweeted it 20 times or so from various accounts. I mean... wait... you can't prove anything!

randfish

10. White Hat SEO: It F@$#ing Works
April 10th, 2011 - Posted by randfish
Don't make me tell you again.

Top Posts of 2011 by Total Number of Comments

Here's the thing, mozzers comment a lot. It's really quite amazing how many comments a post will get, even the mediocre ones. There are tons of exceptional industry blogs out there, but I've never seen one get this many comments to every post. I absolutely love that the community is so generous! Below we'll take a look at the top commenters, but for now let's see which posts caused the most disucssion. Oh! Most of these have been mentioned above, so I left out my comments (since you're probably getting tired of them anyway).

Aaron Wheeler

1. How Google's Panda Update Changed SEO Best Practices Forever - Whiteboard Friday
June 23rd, 2011 - Posted by Aaron Wheeler

Lindsay

2. 32 SEO Tactics to Avoid in 2011
January 18th, 2011 - Posted by Lindsay

randfish

3. White Hat SEO: It F@$#ing Works
April 10th, 2011 - Posted by randfish

Oli Gardner

4. The Noob Guide to Online Marketing (With Giant INFOGRAPHIC)
February 9th, 2011 - Posted by Oli Gardner

Aaron Wheeler

5. Article Marketing: Mostly A Scam - Whiteboard Friday
August 25th, 2011 - Posted by Aaron Wheeler

Dr. Pete

6. Duplicate Content in a Post-Panda World
November 16th, 2011 - Posted by Dr. Pete

randfish

7. Quantifying the Impact of Google's Keyword Referral Data Shutdown
November 14th, 2011 - Posted by randfish

Tom Anthony

8. Competitive Analysis in Under 60 Seconds Using Google Docs
May 15th, 2011 - Posted by Tom Anthony

randfish

9. The Responsibilities of SEO Have Been Upgraded
July 12th, 2011 - Posted by randfish

Tom Critchlow

10. Google +1 And The Rise of Social SEO
March 30th, 2011 - Posted by Tom Critchlow

Top Comments of 2011 by Thumbs Up

Yay! Now we get to take a look at some of the people making "waves" in the community. This list shows the top 10 comments based on the number of thumbs up it received. Some of them are cooky and fun, while others are direct and to-the-point. Take a peek:

SandroM

1. SandroM | January 19th, 2011
32 SEO Tactics to Avoid in 2011

2. Jonathon Colman | September 24th, 2011
Crawl Outage - An Update and What We're Doing

randfish

3. randfish | September 2nd, 2011
Yes, You Really Can Build Links With Twitter - Whiteboard Friday

russvirante

4. russvirante | September 26th, 2011
Crawl Outage - An Update and What We're Doing

iulian lita

5. iulian lita | January 18th, 2011
32 SEO Tactics to Avoid in 2011

Liza Shulyayeva

6. Liza Shulyayeva | July 12th, 2011
The Responsibilities of SEO Have Been Upgraded

Dan Deceuster

7. Dan Deceuster | September 15th, 2011
5 Reasons Why Copying Links is Bad for You

Frederik Hyldig

8. Frederik Hyldig | August 26th, 2011
Article Marketing: Mostly A Scam - Whiteboard Friday

gfiorelli1

9. gfiorelli1 | July 12th, 2011
The Responsibilities of SEO Have Been Upgraded

randfish

10. randfish | July 6th, 2011
Experiments on Google+ and Twitter Influencing Search Rankings

Top Users of 2011 By Total Comments

So who commented the most you ask? Well if you're around the blog much you probably already know that Gianluca is the king of comments. I wanted to also note that our friend GoodnewsCowboy (who I mentioned above) was the top commenter last year. This year he fell to the 15th spot, and that's only with having comments through March 16th.

One note about the top users, all Associates and staff have been removed from this list (There were five that would have made the list: Rand, Dr. Pete, Cyrus, myself & iPullRank). So who are our chatty Kathy's?

1. gfiorelli1
mozPoints: 5578 | Rank: 3

2. James Norquay
mozPoints: 1692 | Rank: 16

3. Jenni Brown
mozPoints: 583 | Rank: 71

4. Moosa Hemani
mozPoints: 535 | Rank: 82

5. algogmbh_petra
mozPoints: 1179 | Rank: 26

6. Dubs
mozPoints: 284 | Rank: 162

7. webpagefxseo
mozPoints: 210 | Rank: 269

8. joshuahedlund
mozPoints: 330 | Rank: 136

9. SEOTakeaways
mozPoints: 1088 | Rank: 31

10. Stephen
mozPoints: 1724 | Rank: 15

Are you as enamored as I am with this post? I sure hope so! It was a ton of fun to put together (even though you may have heard me grumbling on twitter about it). I always love taking a look back at the past year's posts and realizing how much has really happened in a year! This year the obvious themes were the convergence of search and social, plus the Panda update. I hope you'll bookmark this post and read through the ones you may have missed throughout the year. What was your favorite post this year?


Spectacularly awesome image of unicorns, kitttens and rainbows from Sarcastic Monday.


Do you like this post? Yes No

How I Got The Attention of One of the Top SEO Bloggers With Diet Coke

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 02:01 AM PST

Posted by Sparkplug Digital

We've all heard stories about companies who do remarkable things for their customers that results in people talking about them. These examples include the Nordstrom's employee who accepted a return for tires, Zappos providing surprise overnight shipping, or Gary Vaynerchuk sending a Mark Sanchez jersey to a customer, even though he sells wine. Delighting customers with unexpected acts of kindness doesn't have a directly measurable ROI, but often times it leads to loyal customers and evangelists who spread a story.

I recently learned that doing remarkable and unexpected things can also get the attention of the linkerati and lead to social media mentions and even a link on one of the most popular internet marketing blogs. And all it took was Twitter and Diet Coke.

It was 9am on a Tuesday and I was getting settled into work when I decided to check Twitter. I noticed the following Tweet from one of my favorite internet marketing bloggers:



"Hmmm." I thought. "Wouldn't it be funny if someone actually delivered some Diet Coke to Ian". After a few moments of wondering how something like that would be received, I decided to do it and find out. I have been a fan of Ian Lurie's Conversation Marketing blog for years and thought it would be fun and unexpected.

I drove to the grocery store, picked up two 12 packs of Diet Coke, and went to the Portent Interactive office which happened to be 15 minutes away from my location. I walked into their entrance and was suddenly in front of several desks of Portent employees. I walked up to the first desk and told an employee that I noticed on Twitter that they were out of Diet Coke. Fortunately they pretty quickly realized it was for Ian and accepted the boxes.

I drove off laughing because I thought this was probably one of the most random things I have ever done. Within minutes I saw Ian Lurie's Tweet.



When I got back to my desk I read an email from Ian stating that I had definitely earned a link and it was one of the most brilliant displays of social media marketing he had ever seen. Later that night Ian published a post titled How Social Media Works on Conversation Marketing. I had just earned a link to my company's website from one of the most popular marketing blogs which has a domain authority of 70 and links from 1,674 domains according to SEOMoz.

Soon people I admire in the SEO community like Dr. Pete from User Effect were Tweeting about it and even Rand Fishkin noticed.

Wow!

I never expected all of this to happen simply from helping someone on Twitter, but it makes perfect sense. I must have subconsciously channeled years of reading books like Seth Godin's Purple Cow about the importance of being remarkable. It really does work, in both off-line and online marketing if executed well. Here are some of my top takeaways from the experience.

Help Others Without Expectation of Reciprocation

When you help others with no expectation of receiving something back in return, good things tend to happen. People are naturally compelled to reciprocate when they have been helped, like telling their friends why they should do business with you or linking to your site. Even if you don't get a link at least you will be happier. According to a studies, people get a stronger boost in happiness from helping others rather than helping themselves.

Keep An Eye Out for Opportunities to Be Helpful in Social Media

If someone talks about a problem they are having in social media, look for ways that you can help. People frequently talk about things they need help with or problems they are having. If you are proactive and go out of your way to help them, it will almost always be appreciated. I use Tweetdeck to organize people into lists to focus on Tweets from the most relevant people.

Do Something Totally Unexpected

One secret to delighting customers is to do something nice for them that they don't expect. This makes it remarkable and worth talking about. This requires some creativity but there are several good examples for inspiration like the Southwest rapping flight attendant or Kimpton Hotels' response to a customer's request for a bed full of puppies and bathtub full of Reese's Pieces.

Keep your eyes open for opportunities to do remarkable and generous things for your customers, community, and linkerati and you might give them a story worth sharing.


Do you like this post? Yes No

Seth's Blog : Unexpected turbulence

Unexpected turbulence

Is there really any other kind?

If we see turbulence coming, we tend to avoid it. The art is in knowing that turbulence might come and looking forward to it, bracing for it and embracing it at the same time.

If your plan will only succeed if there is no turbulence at any time, it's probably not a very good plan (either that or you're not going anywhere interesting.)

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




 


Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

miercuri, 21 decembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Hungary Downgraded to Junk; Expect Defaults on Public and Private Debt, Especially Mortgages

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 04:52 PM PST

A few days ago I saw a report that the IMF was breaking off negotiations with Hungary regarding a debt package. I knew what was next: a weakening currency and more downgrades. The downgrades came in spades.

Bloomberg reports Hungary Hit by Second Debt Downgrade to Junk on Orban's Policies
Hungary lost its investment-grade rating at Standard & Poor's, the second such downgrade in a month, increasing pressure on Premier Viktor Orban to obtain an International Monetary Fund backstop and reverse policies.

The country's long- and short-term foreign- and local- currency sovereign credit ratings were cut one step to BB+ from BBB-, the company said yesterday in a statement.

The IMF and the European Union suspended talks over an aid package to Hungary, citing concerns about the government's plans for a central bank law they say may curb monetary-policy independence. Hungary will have the highest debt level and slowest economic growth among the EU's eastern members next year, the European Commission forecast on Nov. 10. IMF backing would bolster policy credibility, S&P said.

The forint weakened to 307.01 per euro as of 11:21 p.m. in Budapest yesterday from 300.74 on Dec. 20. It has lost 13 percent since June 30, the worst performance among more than 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Hungary's five-year credit-default swaps, which measure the cost of insuring government debt against non-payment, traded at 572 basis points yesterday, the ninth-highest in the world, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers.

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 7 percent on Dec. 20 from 6.5 percent, which was already the EU's highest. Policy makers said they may boost borrowing costs further if risk perception and the inflation outlook deteriorate "substantially."

Orban shunned IMF aid after taking office to protect what his government called "unorthodox" measures from oversight, including the effective nationalization of $13 billion of private pension-fund assets and extraordinary industry taxes to control the budget, which had a deficit of 182 percent of the Cabinet's full-year target at the end of November.
Hungarian Forint vs. the Swiss Franc and the Euro

Please consider the following chart of the Hungarian Forint vs. the Swiss Franc and the Euro.



click on chart for sharper image

Forint Falls After Downgrades

The Wall Street Journal reports Hungarian Forint Falls After S&P Downgrades Rating To Junk
The Hungarian forint tumbled sharply against the euro, dollar and Swiss franc Wednesday after Standard & Poor's cut Hungary's rating into junk territory.

Hungary's currency slid to a one-week low against the euro, though in very thin trading, following the announcement. The euro rose to HUF306.42, from the HUF303 area before the ratings downgrade, according to CQG. The euro later steadied itself around the HUF305.50 level. The dollar, meanwhile, jumped 1.8% on the day against the forint, and the Swiss franc advanced 1.4%.

Investors have largely avoided Hungary's currency, as the country grapples with high levels of foreign currency debt, and has yet to obtain financial assistance from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The IMF and EU halted preliminary talks on back-up financing to Hungary last week, after a new central bank bill raised concerns about the central bank's independence.

The Hungarian government recently proposed the central bank bill, which would merge the central bank with Hungary's financial markets regulator, and would also designate a third deputy governor and raise the number of members in the Monetary Policy Council.
Expect Defaults on Public Debt

A junk rating on public debt by the S&P does not come easily. You have to really try to get it. Moreover, you have to really try hard to get the IMF to walk away from debt deals.

Bear in mind it is most always correct to refuse money from the IMF. Iceland is a classic example. However, the policies of Hungary are extremely questionable to say the least.

Hungary had plans to join the Euro in 2007 or 2008. The target date is now 2020. Will the Euro even be in existence then?

Expect Defaults on Private Debt

Given massive amounts of private loans, primarily mortgage loans, I see little hope for those loans to be paid back, except for the small percent capable of refinancing on agreed upon discounts, right here right now.

Who would be dumb enough to take out loans in Swiss Francs on Hungarian properties? Good question. The answer, amusingly enough includes economics professors, based on their models.

Please consider "Decision was rational. I put it into a model" says Hungarian Economics Professor who took Mortgage in Swiss Francs, then Clobbered on 40% Currency Move

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Investigating the NAR's Seemingly Incredulous Statement on the Accuracy of Local Housing Data; Discussion with Calculated Risk on "Where to From Here"

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 11:14 AM PST

A statement by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors as listed in a report on existing home sales caught my eye today.

"From a consumer's perspective, only the local market information matters and there are no changes to local multiple listing service data or local supply-and-demand balance, or to local home prices" said Yun.

On the surface, the statement seems incredulous. How can the national data be completely screwed up, in need of major revisions, if the local data is accurate?

I had a chat with Calculated Risk today regarding that statement by the NAR. Calculated Risk explains various ways the national data can be messed up even if the local data is accurate. It has to do with procedural errors in NAR methodology, extrapolating local data to national trends.

Major Procedural Errors

  • Sampling Error - Not all local data was used to estimate national numbers
  • Size Error - Local areas changed in size over time. If the size of a local office changed, that affected extrapolated results
  • Benchmark Error - Population figures were based on the 2000 census. 10 years between census reports is a lot of time.
  • FSBO Changes - The NAR had difficulty extrapolating trends given huge changes over time in "For Sale by Owner" homes going off then back on NAR listings.

Calculated Risk covers the revisions (with a nice set of charts), but not the discussion above in his post Existing Home Sales Revisions

When Did Housing Peak?

In our discussion, CR thinks as do I the Summer of 2006 top as shown by Case-Shiller is inaccurate because of Case-Shiller misses incentives such as "free" garages, pools, landscaping, and other upgrades and incentives that started in summer or Autumn of 2005. Moreover, Case-Shiller does not include condo sales, and condo prices started crashing summer of 2005.

I have the peak Summer of 2005, CR has the peak somewhere between summer of 2005 and Spring of 2006. We both agree it was a rolling peak that started slowly, then spread like wildfire mid-2006.

ECRI's Recession Call and Track Record

I also chatted a bit with Calculated Risk on the ECRI's recession call. CR brought the subject up, not me, and he is in general agreement with my interpretation in A Look at ECRI's Recession Predicting Track Record

In regards to a double-dip or back-to-back recession ideas, so far CR has been correct. He did not see a recession in 2011 and one of the reasons was investment in real estate is at or near the bottom and will no longer be a subtraction to GDP.

Indeed housing was a net addition to GDP this year, primarily because of multi-family.

Where to From Here?

In regards to how long this will play out, I think a decade. CR is a bit more optimistic but shadow-inventory (REOs and foreclosures not yet listed) places downward pressure on home prices now. As prices bottom and start to rise, those hoping to get out at higher prices will add to further supply down the road.

Once housing prices bottom, it will not be a mad dash to new highs. "Someone who bought a house for $1 Million who can now only get $500,000 will likely not get back to even in our lifetimes" says CR , adding with a presumed grin, "it certainly depends on how old someone is now".

Let's just call it decades, admitting "local conditions can vary" and leave it at that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List