marți, 10 ianuarie 2012

Testing the Accuracy of Visitor Data from Alexa, Compete, Google Trends, Doubleclick & Quantcast

Testing the Accuracy of Visitor Data from Alexa, Compete, Google Trends, Doubleclick & Quantcast


Testing the Accuracy of Visitor Data from Alexa, Compete, Google Trends, Doubleclick & Quantcast

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 03:28 PM PST

Posted by randfish

SEOmoz.org had 13.8mm visits from 6.25mm unique visitors last year (2011). Those numbers are pretty exciting, but what's not exciting is the external perception created by third-parties like Compete, Alexa, Quantcast, Doubleclick and Google Trends for Websites. These sites report massively lower and wrongly trending data - and SEOmoz isn't alone in experiencing this frustration. We're among dozens of sites I've talked to who've gotten emails and comments lamenting our poor growth or crummy year thanks to these horrifically inaccurate services.

Here's a screenshot of our actual traffic from Google Analytics:

SEOmoz Visitors Overview

Now let's look at the comparison to each of those services:

Alexa

Above is Alexa's estimate of SEOmoz's web traffic for the past few months. It's hard to tell how accurate they are, because they're not showing any exact numbers, only "percent" of "reach." They do correctly note that traffic was down in December (the last two weeks of the year were very slow for us due to the holidays, which is a good thing - even SEOs deserve a break) :-)

Historically, Alexa showed a much longer timespan and much more inaccurate data, at one point estimating that our traffic had dropped year-over-year since 2009. I've had well respected VC funds reach out and ask why we were struggling and whether we felt the SEO market was drying up because of those charts... Now, Alexa's ranking us as the 472nd most popular site in the world, which is definitely way, way off.

Compete

Next up is Compete.com's estimate of SEOmoz's traffic. They're much more specific, but tragically, way off the mark. For a time, I'd hoped Compete would be a much better competitor to Alexa, but those hopes died a few years back. This chart isn't just wrong, it's directionally backward (we grew when they showed us shrinking and shrunk where they show us spiking at year-end) and off by almost two full orders of magnitude (our daily traffic is about 2X what they estimate our monthly traffic to be).

How anyone can trust that data is beyond me, since you can easily compare many site who publish their traffic details (as we do) against Compete and see this discrepency. To be fair, I've heard that for the top 1-2,000 most popular sites on the web, they're not bad, though I can't personally confirm this.

Quantcast

Quantcast's estimate of traffic looks equally terrible to Compete. It's directionally wrong and off by multiple orders of magnitude as well. Quantcast's saving grace is their "Quantified" program, which shows actual, truly accurate and measured numbers for sites that opt-in. I wish they'd stick to that model exclusively rather than providing these random guesses on sites they've not included in the program, though. I'm also really struggling to understand how 17,671 unique people could create only 11,005 visits... That's a brain teaser.

Google Trends for Websites

Google's my last, best hope, and since they capture such a large percentage of sites' traffic in Google Analytics, I'd expect they have a pretty excellent data-modeling system to work off. Apparently, that belief is mistaken. Google's by no means as bad as Compete or Quantcast (and possibly better than Alexa), but it's still way off. The directional data is sort-of close, but the daily unique visitors count shows at ~200K in December. Our analytics says it's ~47K daily or 722K for that month.

Doubleclick

Since Trends and Doubleclick are both under Google's operating umbrella, you might be tempted to think they use the same data... In fact, Doubleclick Ad Planner's estimate of Moz traffic and Google Trends for Websites appear to have at least slightly different numbers (hard to tell for sure based on GG Trends' incomplete graphs). One thing I can tell for sure - neither is accurate, nor even directionally correct.

The over-time charts don't quite match each other (though they're close-ish); it looks like Doubleclick is showing higher traffic to SEOmoz generally than Trends for Websites. The closest data point is their estimated time on site, but I'm not sure I can give them credit for that. If you put on a blindfold and throw enough darts, one of them will probably get close to the board. It's hard not to feel that way about these numbers, too.


Now here's the rub:

Recently, Ani López wrote about Comparing Google Trends for Websites vs. Google Analytics Data and showed a few examples that suggested greater accuracy than what we see with SEOmoz (and OpenSiteExplorer, too FYI). Thus, I'm asking for two favors from you to help get a better sense for the relative usefulness of these tools.

The first is to take the quick survey linked-to below:

Take Our Traffic Comparison Survey
please take me! (opens in a new window)

The second is to, if possible, take screenshots of your own analytics vs. Trends/DoubleClick/Compete/Quantcast/Alexa and share them in the comments below. For anyone who puts together a compelling side-by-side, I'll happily include links in this blog post to your site and to the images showing your traffic vs. what these third parties report. Hopefully, that incentive can help spur transparency from those of you willing and able to share some broad site stats.

Thanks as always for your help - looking forward to getting a broader view of these tools' performance. For now, I'd remain highly skeptical, but we might revisit the topic if we get very compelling data in the survey and the in the comments (otherwise, I'll just update this post at the end of the week with the survey results, and since they're anonymous, provide full data).


Do you like this post? Yes No

10 Extraordinary Examples of Effective Link Bait

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 02:04 AM PST

Posted by jrcooper

Despite what most SEOs will tell you, it’s not easy to create outstanding content that people will want to link to. So many “SEOs” make it seem like there’s a key on your keyboard that magically turns what you just wrote into something link worthy. In reality, it’s never that simple.

I'm not one to keep throwing mud at the wall until it sticks. You can continuously tell someone to go create exceptional content, or you can actually show them an example. Because, being the sensible person I am, I'd rather choose the second option, here are 10 fantastic examples of link bait and what makes them so spectacular.

Note: PA stands for Page Authority, LRD stands for linking root domains, and TL stands for total links. Also, I didn't include .gov, .edu, or any other pieces of link bait from SEOmoz besides the first one below. The same goes for .edu and .gov sites.

 

1. SEOmoz’s Search Ranking Factors – PA: 91. LRD: 2,727. TL: 17,750.

What is it?

This is an article on the different search ranking factors by your very own SEOmoz. With yearly updates, 132 contributors, and roughly 20 pages of content on one URL, this gives information on what search engines are measuring in order to rank websites. If you call yourself an SEO and you haven't read this, then I suggest you quietly open this up, read it twice, and hope no one noticed.

Why was it so successful?

This link bait was highly successful because of the visualizations, depth of content, the trust of the contributors involved, and the website it was hosted on (SEOmoz is very influential in the SEO community). While the content is great, there's also a far greater reason for all of the links: SEOmoz didn’t do the promotion; the contributors did. In the future, this should be your go to example for creating a collaborative study.

 

2. Xkcd's Radiation Dose Chart - PA: 88. LRD: 988. TL: 5,863.

What is it?

This is a chart about the radiation a person absorbs from various sources. This is a great way to visualize how much radiation poisoning you can get from things like airplane flights, x-rays, and CT scans.

Why was it successful?

Being able to visualize something that's hard to grasp is one of your best friends when creating link bait. By using tiny blocks to put together just how many "siverts" are in these different sources of radiation, this chart makes this concept very easy to understand. The key takeaway here is that if you can get people to understand your content, and actually read it all, the likelihood of them sharing and linking to it increases dramatically.

 

3. Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Seafood Watch – PA: 86. LRD: 631. TL: 9,149.

What is it?

If you ever need a guide on what seafood to choose based on where you live or travel, this is your go to place. You can choose to download eight different regional guides, with two of them also available in Spanish.

Why was it so successful?

The main reason this was so successful was because of the outright awesome information these guides provide. They’re updated regularly (most recently July 2011) and they’re free for anyone that wants them. It also doesn’t hurt to have a top notch interactive map to help you choose the guide best for you.

 

4. SEOBook’s 101 Link Popularity Tips – PA: 84. LRD: 723. TL: 2,843.

What is it?

Created by Aaron Wall & Andy Hagans, this is a list of 101 different link building strategies, and even though it’s over five years old, it still provides some of the best link building tips on the Web. To add a little humor, the last 30 tips are bad ways to build links.

Why was it successful?

Everyone loves lists. It’s that simple. It got traction in the right community, it’s easy to read, and it’s on a subject that people want to know about.

 

5. Mark Nottingham’s RSS Tutorial - PA: 83. LRD: 540. TL: 7,033.

What is it?

Published in 2005, this was and still is the go to resource to find out more about why your blog should be utilizing an RSS feed. It gives detailed analysis and can be translated to Brazilian and Portuguese (see links at the bottom).

Why was it successful?

When this was published, the post gave in-depth information on a relatively unexplored subject that people wanted to know about. It also provides ready-to-go snippets of code, making the content very actionable. On another note, one reason for its success that you might have noticed is the design of the website. There's no clutter and it's very easy to read.

 

6. OKCupid's Politics Test - PA: 82. LRD: 456. TL: 1,274.

What is it?

OKCupid, a free online dating site, put together a test on what your political views are based on what your answers are to each question. This is one of many tests featured on OKCupid's site.

Why was it successful?

People like personalized content, such as tests and quizzes. In this case, people like to see how they scored, and they want to compare their score with their friends (thus, they link to it asking others to do it and share their results). There's also a bit of controversy involved with politics (just a bit?), which never hurts in terms of link juice.

7. Yoast's Wordpress SEO Guide - PA: 81. LRD: 701. TL: 2,642.

What is it?

This is an extensive guide to implementing SEO on the Wordpress CMS created by Joost de Valk.

Why was it successful?

It's the go-to resource because it has the best information on this subject all in one place. It's as simple as that. The information is instructional and easy to understand, and it's helpful in areas that people want to know about. With a resource like this, people will often cite information in it, and with each citation comes yet another link.

8. SEJ's Social Media Infographic - PA: 81. LRD: 282. TL: 876.

What is it?

This is an infographic by Search Engine Journal on the growth of social media. This is a great visualization on the progress social media has made and what lies in the future according to statistical data.

Why was it successful?

In a nutshell, it's visually appealing. Putting such a great amount of raw data into an easy, understandable visualization is something I'd go out of my way to share. It also helps when it's initially displayed to a large audience (SEJ is a fairly popular SEO site if you didn't already know).

I'd also like to point out that although it may not have the sheer number of links some of the other pieces of link bait have, it's the quality of the links that count. This link bait got links from the Huffington Post, Reuters, and The Next Web.

9. WUIW's Water Conservation Tips - PA: 77. LRD: 347. TL: 1,536.

What is it?

This is a list of 112 different ways to conserve water. The tips are very short and provide quick, actionable information.

Why was it successful?

The first reason is because of each item's brevity. This list is quite easy to read and scan because each tip isn't a paragraph, it's a sentence. Another cool thing they did was highlight one specific tip out of every 10 or so. They enlarged the number, added a picture, and bolded the text. This puts emphasis on the specific item highlighted, and it's a great way to segment the list into something readable. Also, the post is listed in the website's navigation bar, making it easy to locate.

10. Thomson's Evolution of Music - PA: 77. LRD: 80. TL: 955.

What is it?

This is a visualization of how music has traveled over the past 200 years. As you play the timeline, new genres pop up around the world and you can see how they've moved and connected throughout the world.

Why was it successful?

Hmm. How wasn't it? If you aren't blown away, I'm sorry, because if this won't impress you, nothing will. The two main reasons it was successful are the quality of the visualization and the social share buttons on the page. Making it easy to share gets the page in front of more eyes, and more eyes means more links.

Yes, the link metrics show that it's not as successful as some of the ones above, but this is only because of how new this piece of content is.

 

Conclusion

So, what can we conclude about link bait from these 10 examples?

  1. Get influencers involved.
  2. Make it easy to understand.
  3. Give away free stuff.
  4. People love lists.
  5. Choose a highly desired topic.
  6. People like personalized content.
  7. Establish it as the go-to resource.
  8. Make it visually appealing.
  9. Segment large lists to make them readable.
  10. Use social share buttons.

 

Thanks for reading! Make sure you give this post a thumbs up if you enjoyed it! If you want to find out more about me, check out my link building blog and make sure you follow me on twitter.


Do you like this post? Yes No

A New Chief of Staff

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
 

A New Chief of Staff

Yesterday, President Obama announced that Jack Lew -- the Director of the Office of Management and Budget -- will replace Bill Daley as Chief of Staff.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama talks with Chief of Staff Bill Daley and Jack Lew, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, before making a statement to the press in the State Dining Room of the White House, Jan. 9, 2012. The President announced Daley's resignation and that Lew will serve as his next chief of staff. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Resurgence of the American Auto Industry
Since Chrysler and GM emerged from bankruptcy in June of 2009, the auto industry has added back more than 170,000 jobs, the best period of job growth in more than a decade.

Super Duper Space Toolbox
2011 SAVE Award winner Matthew Ritsko visits the White House to discuss his cost-cutting idea with President Obama.

Lowering Health Care Cost Growth to Get More Value for Consumers
Newly released statistics show that health care spending growth in 2009 and 2010 decreased to record lows

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

7:45 AM: The Vice President hosts a breakfast with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

10:30 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

11:00 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

1:15 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:45 PM: The President joins Administrator Lisa Jackson at an EPA event and makes brief remarks thanking the agency’s staff WhiteHouse.gov/live

3:30 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of Defense Panetta

8:15 PM: The Vice President participates in a video teleconference with campaign supporters in New Hampshire

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Get Updates

Sign up for the Daily Snapshot

Stay Connected

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Click here to unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

 

Seth's Blog : One option is to struggle to be heard whenever you're in the room...

One option is to struggle to be heard whenever you're in the room...

Another is to be the sort of person who is missed when you're not.

The first involves making noise. The second involves making a difference.

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




 
Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

luni, 9 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


US Defense Secretary Admits "Iran Not Trying to Develop Nuclear Weapon"

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 08:24 PM PST

All the tin hats that disputed Ron Paul's position that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons can now hear the same thing from US Secretary of Defense. Please consider Panetta admits Iran not developing nukes.
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta let slip on Sunday the big open secret that Washington war hawks don't want widely known: Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Appearing on CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday, Panetta admitted that despite all the rhetoric, Iran is not pursuing the ability to split atoms with weapons, saying it is instead pursuing "a nuclear capability."

That "capability" falls in line with what Iran has said for years: that it is developing nuclear energy facilities, not nuclear weapons.

"I think the pressure of the sanctions, the diplomatic pressures from everywhere, Europe, the United States, elsewhere, it's working to put pressure on them," Panetta explained on Sunday. "To make them understand that they cannot continue to do what they're doing. Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they're trying to develop a nuclear capability, and that's what concerns us. And our red line to Iran is, do not develop a nuclear weapon. That's a red line for us."
Face the Nation Video


Link if video does not play: Iran Not Developing Nuclear Weapons

That admission by Defense Secretary Panetta proves just how preposterous the US position is. Hopefully Europe has second thoughts over the absurd embargo it is considering later this month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Ethanol Subsidies Ended January 1, 2012. Will that Raise or Lower Gasoline Prices at the Pump?

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 01:50 PM PST

A major part of the United States' misguided policy on ethanol usage came to an end as the $6 billion-a-year ethanol subsidy dies
America's corn farmers have been benefiting from annual federal subsidies of around $6 billion in recent years, all in the name of ethanol used as an additive for the nation's vehicles.

That ends on Jan. 1, when the companies making ethanol will lose a tax credit of 46 cents per gallon, and even the ethanol industry is OK with it -- thanks in part to high oil prices that make ethanol competitive.

Subsidized since 1979 as a homegrown fuel cleaner than gasoline, corn ethanol had plenty of opponents, environmentalists among them.

Environmentalists question the cleaner energy premise -- adding factors like tractor diesel emissions and fertilizer runoff make it dirtier, they say.

"Corn ethanol is extremely dirty," Michal Rosenoer, biofuels manager for Friends of the Earth, said in heralding the tax credit's demise. "It leads to more climate pollution than conventional gasoline, and it causes deforestation as well as agricultural runoff that pollutes our water."

Opponents also see corn ethanol, which now takes a larger share of the U.S. corn crop than cattle, hogs and poultry, as a factor in driving food prices higher.

"The end of this giant subsidy for dirty corn ethanol is a win for taxpayers, the environment and people struggling to put food on their tables," Rosenoer added.

But there's a nearer-term battle brewing over corn-based ethanol. A 2005 law requires that 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuel be produced by 2012 -- 6.25 billion gallons were produced in 2011. A 2007 revision gradually increases that to 36 billion gallons by 2022.
AAA Predicts 4 Cent Rise in Gasoline Prices

Please consider End of ethanol subsidy expected to bring higher gas prices
In January, the federal government is stopping a 45-cent-a-gallon subsidy to ethanol producers, who will pass that extra expense to drivers who buy ethanol-supplemented gas, said AAA Carolinas spokesman Tom Crosby. Extra costs at the pump will amount to about 4 cents, he said.
Not So Fast

The Brazilian Sugar Cane Association reports Congressional recess means the end of three decades of US tariffs on imported ethanol
For the first time in more than three decades of generous US government subsidies for the domestic ethanol industry, coupled with a steep tariff on imports, the United States market will be open to imported ethanol as of January 1st, 2012, without protectionist measures. Today's adjournment of the 112th Congress means both the US$0,54 per gallon tax on imported ethanol and a corresponding tax credit of US$0,45 per gallon for blenders, the VEETC (Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit), will expire as expected on December 31st.

"With Congress in recess, there are no opportunities for further attempts to prolong the tax credit or the tariff, so we can confidently say these support mechanisms will be gone at the end of 2011," said the Washington Representative for the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA), Leticia Phillips. This means that in 2012, the world's largest fuel consuming market will be open to imports of less costly and more efficient ethanol, including sugarcane ethanol produced in Brazil, recognized since 2010 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as an advanced biofuel because of its verified reduction of up to 90% in greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline.

If attempts in Congress to prolong the tax credit had been successful, the subsidy package now about to expire would continue to cost American taxpayers about US$6 billion per year. As for the tariff, meant primarily to keep Brazilian sugarcane ethanol out of the US market, its demise should reinforce fact-based assessments about the various feedstocks used around the world to produce ethanol, according to UNICA President Marcos Jank.
45 Cent Subsidy Ends, So Does 54 Cent Tariff

With the tariff ending, price of imported ethanol should drop by 54 cents per gallon. The net effect of the end of expiring bill, all thing being equal (which they won't be), should be a 9 cent drop in price of ethanol.

Federal and State Ethanol and Biodiesel Requirements

Please consider Federal and State Ethanol and Biodiesel Requirements
Minnesota, a major producer of ethanol, has required all gasoline to contain at least 7.7 percent ethanol since 1997. Hawaii requires 85 percent of its gasoline to contain 10 percent ethanol, effective on April 2, 2006. The intention of the law is to spur local production of ethanol from sugar, but the ethanol could also come from the U.S. mainland or from Brazil.

Minnesota was also the first State to require biodiesel blending into diesel fuel, at 2 percent by volume. The requirement became effective in mid-2005, when two new biodiesel plants, each with 30 million gallons per year capacity, began operation in the State. The law was waived several times because of quality problems with the biodiesel, but it is again in effect.

Washington requires 2 percent ethanol in gasoline and 2 percent biodiesel in diesel fuel no later than November 30, 2008. The requirement will increase to 5 percent once the State can produce biodiesel equal to 3 percent of its diesel demand.

Louisiana enacted a requirement for 2 percent ethanol in gasoline and 2 percent biodiesel in diesel fuel, once sufficient capacity is built in-State. Assuming that Louisiana's 2-percent and Washington's 5-percent requirements are triggered, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Washington will require 102 million gallons of biodiesel in 2012 and 146 million gallons in 2030.

State Mandated Ethanol Usage

As noted above, some states mandate its usage, others don't. Mandating various blends adds to the price, due to inefficiencies. Moreover, given that ethanol from corn makes no environmental sense, promoting the idea is absurd.

The California Energy Commission Consumer Energy Center states
Most ethanol used for fuel is being blended into gasoline at concentrations of 5 to 10 percent. In California, ethanol has replaced methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) as a gasoline component. More than 95 percent of the gasoline supplied in the state today contains 6 percent ethanol. There is a small but growing market for E85 fuel (85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline) for use in flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), several million of which have been produced by U.S. automakers. But E85 is primarily found in the Midwest in corn-producing states. Ethanol is also being used to formulate a blend with diesel fuel, known as "E-Diesel", and as a replacement for leaded aviation gasoline in small aircraft.

All gasoline vehicles in use in the U.S. today can accept gasoline blended with up to 10 percent ethanol (sometimes called gasohol). Flexible Fuel Vehicles (VVFs) are cars and trucks that can use any level of ethanol up to 85 percent. They're built with special fuel system components designed to be compatible with higher ethanol concentrations.
Calculating the Savings

For California then, assuming Brazil supplies the ethanol 9 cents cheaper, and the ethanol content of gasoline is 6%, California prices might drop about a half-cent per gallon. In states where the ethanol content is 10%, the price should drop nine-tenths of a cent per gallon.

However, this assumes Brazil supplies 100% of US ethanol and that is not a realistic assumption even if it makes good environmental and economic sense.

More than likely costs go up a couple pennies rather than the 4 cents calculated by the AAA. However, any price hikes on gasoline would be more than made up for by the drop in corn prices which in turn will pass through to grain-fed beef, corn flakes, etc.

Regardless of what happens to prices, ending all tariffs and letting the free market set prices is a very good thing in and of itself. Unfortunately, inane state rules and still intact federal rules mandating ever-increasing amounts of biofuels in gasoline formulations are still in control even though the subsidies ended.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Help Wanted, Precisely One Opening; Maintain a Single Chair; Salary $38,500; Travel Required

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 11:04 AM PST

Are you able and willing to maintain a chair for 25,000 British pounds per year (approximately $38,500). Not just any chair. Specifically this one-person chair (as shown from the back).



Inquiring minds may be asking "whose chair is it?" That's a good question too.

The chair belongs to Stephen Hawking, the world's greatest physicist.

Hawking is known for his contributions to the fields of cosmology and quantum gravity, especially in the context of black holes.

He has a motor neurone disease that is related to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a condition that has progressed over the years and has left him almost completely paralysed since 1974.

ALS is commonly known in the United States as Lou Gehrig's disease.

Stephen William Hawking
8 January 1942 (age 69)
Oxford, England

At left: Stephen Hawking at NASA, 1980s

Hawking's illness is markedly different from typical ALS because if confirmed Hawking's case would make for the most protracted case ever documented. A survival for more than ten years after diagnosis is uncommon for ALS; the longest documented durations, other than Hawking's, are 32 and 39 years and these cases were termed benign because of the lack of the typical progressive course.

Image and above text from Wikipedia. Please click on the above link. There is much more to the story, and it's fascinating.

Could You be the Hawking's Next Technical Assistant?

An ad on Hawking's website asks Could You be the Hawking's Next Technical Assistant?
The post is more accurately described by the title "Technical Assistant to Stephen Hawking." It is not a PhD or Post-Doc position for academics looking to study physics, but a purely technical post to allow Prof. Hawking to function within the physics community and as a public speaker.

The original purpose of this position was "to aid Professor Hawking in those areas which he has difficulty due to his disability." The job has since expanded and now includes:

  • Managing national and international travel for Prof. Hawking and his care team. Expect to spend around 3 months per year abroad!
  • Development and maintenance of Professor Hawking's communication and speech systems
  • Procurement and maintenance of his wheelchairs and accessible van
  • Preparation of lecture graphics and public speaking
  • Dealing with the media and press
  • Answering inquiries from the public and maintaining the website

The post requires a wide range of skills, most importantly:

  • Ability to work under pressure
  • Maintenance of "black box" systems with no instruction manual or technical support
  • Computer literacy
  • Electronics knowledge
  • Ability to speak to a large audience
  • Ability to show others how to use complex systems

The role of 'Graduate Assistant to Professor Hawking' is funded as a research post at the University of Cambridge. Normally it has been under a 12 month contract, although recent graduate assistants have stayed on for several years.
Stephen Hawking seeks help to make voice heard

Yahoo!Finance reports Stephen Hawking seeks help to make voice heard
Can you help make Stephen Hawking's voice heard?

The famed British physicist is seeking an assistant to help develop and maintain the electronic speech system that allows him to communicate his vision of the universe. An informal job ad posted to the famed physicist's website said the assistant should be computer literate, ready to travel, and able to repair electronic devices "with no instruction manual or technical support."

Hawking has long struggled against amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, a disease which left him almost completely paralyzed.

He lost his real voice in a tracheotomy in 1985, but a wheelchair-mounted computer helps synthesize speech by interpreting the twitches of his face. The synthesizer's robotic monotone has become nearly as famous as Hawking himself, but the computer — powered by batteries fastened to the back of Hawking's wheelchair — isn't just for speaking.

Hawking's website says that the job's salary is expected to be about 25,000 pounds ($38,500) a year.
Media Appearances,  Movies, Music

Wikipedia reports ...
In Hawking's many media appearances, he appears to speak fluently through his synthesiser, but in reality, it is a tedious drawn-out process. Hawking's setup uses a predictive text entry system, which requires only the first few characters in order to auto-complete the word, but as he is only able to use his cheek for data entry, constructing complete sentences takes time. His speeches are prepared in advance, but having a live conversation with him provides insight as to the complexity and work involved. During a TED Conference talk, it took him seven minutes to answer a question.

Hawking has played himself on numerous television shows and has been portrayed in many more. He has played himself on a Red Dwarf anniversary special, played a hologram of himself on the episode "Descent" of Star Trek: The Next Generation, appeared in a skit on Late Night with Conan O'Brien, and appeared on the Discovery Channel special Alien Planet. He has also played himself in several episodes of The Simpsons and Futurama, and has had an action figure made of his Simpsons likeness. In 2008, Hawking was the subject of and featured in the documentary series Stephen Hawking, Master of the Universe for Channel 4. In September 2008, Hawking presided over the unveiling of the 'Chronophage' (time-eating) Corpus Clock at Corpus Christi College Cambridge. His actual synthesiser voice was used on parts of the Pink Floyd song "Keep Talking" from the 1994 album The Division Bell, as well as on Turbonegro's "Intro: The Party Zone" on their 2005 album Party Animals, Wolfsheim's "Kein Zurück (Oliver Pinelli Mix)". When he was portrayed on episodes of Family Guy, the voice was actually done by a speech synthesiser on a Macintosh computer, according to DVD commentary. He was portrayed in an episode of the Dilbert cartoon. In The Fairly OddParents, it is mentioned that he was Denzel Crocker's college roommate. As well as being fictionalised as nerdcore hip hop artist MC Hawking, he was impersonated in duet with Richard Cheese on a cover of "The Girl Is Mine". He was also portrayed in the movie Superhero Movie by Robert Joy. In the TV series Dark Angel Logan's technology savvy colleague Sebastian is characterised with many similarities to the actual physicist.
Here is an interesting update on Geekologie showing an image of  Stephen Hawking weightless.
The link to the official opening is down, but I cannot find news an assistant was found. Perhaps they have closed the application process even if the slot is not filled.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


What If We Could Turn Back the Hands of Time and Make One Simple Change?

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 08:51 AM PST

What if we could turn back the clock to the year 2000 and elect a different president for 8 years? What if we elected Ron Paul?

  1. There would be no Fed and we would have sound money.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have been dismantled.
  3. The big three rating agencies (Moody's, Fitch, and S&P) would not be officially government recognized and rating agencies in general  would have been paid on the basis of how well they do their job, not on volume generated by being "officially recognized".
  4. There would have been no housing bubble (or one much smaller).
  5. Ron Paul certainly would not have signed the Medicare bill Bush signed or the Healthcare bill Obama signed..
  6. The US would not have wasted over a trillion dollars in Iraq.
  7. The US would not have had troops stationed in Saudi Arabia and since that was Bin Laden's biggest gripe, there may not have been a 911 attack in the first place.
  8. Davis Bacon and prevailing wage laws would have been scrapped lowering costs to cities and states to provide services. 
  9. Cities and states would not be in such bad financial position.
  10. Ron Paul would have ended collective bargaining of public unions 
  11. The public union pension crisis would not be as big.
  12. We would actually have smaller government instead of lip service from other Republicans on providing smaller government
  13. People would have lower taxes and more of their own money to spend.
  14. The insane war on drugs would be over and our prisons would not be overflowing at enormous expense to taxpayers
  15. The US would be defending its borders instead of being the world's policeman 

I can go on and on.  It's amazing how much attention has been focused on things Ron Paul did not even say, instead of things he has consistently stood for. He is the only Republican candidate (actually the only candidate from any party) that has a high level of consistency on critical issues.

I have been thinking about this for days actually, and decided to write it up in response to this must see video by Judge Andrew Napolitano on Fox News.



Link If Video Does Not Play: What If "They" Are Lying to Us about Ron Paul?

President Obama and Mitt Romney are Nearly One and the Same

Interesting, Judge Napolitano makes the same suggestion that I have made several times: President Obama and Mitt Romney are Nearly One and the Same!

Except on fringe issues there is no practical difference between Obama and Mitt Romney. The health care act Obama crammed down everyone's throat was based on ideas Romney put in place as governor.

Moreover, there is little difference between George Bush and President Obama on wars, on trade, on sanctions, on tariffs, on bailouts, on banks, on drugs, on education, on jobs, and on spending.There is a difference on abortion (a fringe issue), and on public unions.

Except for an exceptionally hard stance on abortion, there is even less difference between Rick Santorum and President Obama as noted by the Cato Institute in Santorum's Big-Government Conservatism.
There is no doubt that Santorum is deeply conservative on social issues. He is ardently anti-abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, and no one takes a stronger stand against gay rights. In fact, with his comparison of gay sex to "man on dog" relationships, Santorum seldom even makes a pretense of tolerance. While that sort of rhetoric may play well in Iowa pulpits, it will be far less well received elsewhere in the nation.

Santorum's voting record shows that he embraced George Bush–style "big-government conservatism." For example, he supported the Medicare prescription-drug benefit and No Child Left Behind.

He never met an earmark that he didn't like. In fact, it wasn't just earmarks for his own state that he favored, which might be forgiven as pure electoral pragmatism, but earmarks for everyone, including the notorious "Bridge to Nowhere." The quintessential Washington insider, he worked closely with Tom DeLay to set up the "K Street Project," linking lobbyists with the GOP leadership.

He voted against NAFTA and has long opposed free trade. He backed higher tariffs on everything from steel to honey. He still supports an industrial policy with the government tilting the playing field toward manufacturing industries and picking winners and losers.

In fact, Santorum might be viewed as the mirror image of Ron Paul. If Ron Paul's campaign has been based on the concept of simply having government leave us alone, Santorum rejects that entire concept. True liberty, he writes, is not "the freedom to be left alone," but "the freedom to attend to one's duties to God, to family, and to neighbors." And he seems fully prepared to use the power of government to support his interpretation of those duties.
Fake Conservatives

Ron Paul is the true constitutional conservative. Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum are fakes. I will not vote for Mitt Romney if nominated, nor Rick Santorum.. Nor will I vote for Newt Gingrich. What did Gingrich accomplish as Speaker of the House?

I would vote for Ron Paul or Jon Huntsman if nominated. Otherwise, if Republicans keep nominating fake conservatives and war-mongers that pay lip service to small government, I will keep writing in Ron Paul as I did in the last two presidential elections.

Some may say writing in Ron Paul will only serve to reelect President Obama. I say so what?

In spite of all the talk (and a few differences on social issues), there is no practical difference on major economic matters, foreign policy, war-mongering, or big government between the Republican candidates (except Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman), and President Obama.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Fundamental and Mathematical Case for Structurally High Unemployment for a Decade; Shrinking Job Opportunities and the Jobs Gap; The Real Employment Situation

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 12:59 AM PST

Since 2008 I have been stating the US would have "Structurally High Unemployment for a Decade".

Indeed, based on historical trends in labor force growth, the expected unemployment rate for the number of jobs created during the recovery would be well north of 11%. Yet, the unemployment rate is currently an artificially "low" 8.5% (not that 8.5% is anything to brag about).

To show how difficult it will be to bring that rate down, let's take a look at job growth (or losses), for the last three decades (numbers in thousands).

1970's Job Growth

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvg
1970-64126151-105-226-9427-12317-430-110381 -38
197176-61541782106635225222202264 110
1972337207293218304293-51428131404293305 264
197335039726917019024025255115324304126 230
19746914942891635532-15-513-368-602 -32
1975-360-378-270-186160-10424938678303144338 30
1976489311232244186517015818813332211 203
1977244295404339359399348238458262379235 330
1978187353513702346442254276137336437283 356
1979137243426-6237231810682271579495 166
Decade Annual Avg162

1980's Job Growth

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvg
198013179112-145-431-320-263260113280256195 22
198195671047410196112-36-87-100-209-278 -4
1982-327-6-129-281-45-243-343-158-181-277-124-14 -177
1983225-78173276277378418-3081114271352356 288
1984447479275363308379312241311286349127 323
1985266124346195274145189193204187209168 208
198612310793188125-93318113346187186204 158
1987171232249338227171346170229492231294 263
198894452276245227363223121340268339289 270
1989262258192173118117394724911127795 162
Decade Annual Average151

1990's Job Growth

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvg
19903422452154014917-42-208-82-161-144-60 26
1991-119-306-160-211-12887-47153512-5823 -71
199249-6650158126607114135177140211 96
1993310242-51309265173295161241277261308 233
1994268201462353331315363300354207423274 321
1995321209222162-1623179271245147148131 179
1996-19434263161323278232196220243296167 233
1997230301312291256253283-18508339303299 280
1998270189144277401212119352218193284342 250
1999121410106376213266291192202408294294 264
Decade Annual Avg180

2000's Job Losses!

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvg
2000249121472286225-461633122-11231138 163
2001-1661-30-281-44-128-125-160-244-325-292-178 -147
2002-132-147-24-85-745-97-16-551268-156 -45
200383-158-212-49-6-225-4210320318124 7
200415043338250310814712116035164132 171
20051362401423601692463691956384334158 208
20062813172871821180202185156-8205180 173
2007203882187914167-49-26699112784 91
200813-83-72-185-233-178-231-267-434-509-802-619 -300
2009-820-726-796-660-386-502-300-231-236-221-55-130 -422
Decade Annual Avg-10

2010's Job Growth

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvg
2010-39-35192277458-192-49-59-2917193152 78
2011682351942175320127104210112100*200* 136
* : preliminary108

Bear in mind those tables are from the BLS establishment survey data while the unemployment rate is based off a phone survey. Nonetheless, with sufficient time (and BLS revisions), the results merge.

According to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke (and I believe he is correct on this point) it currently takes about 125,000 jobs a month to hold the unemployment rate steady, down from about 150,000 in 2000. I expect that number to drop for a few more years due to boomer demographics, but the key point is the number is positive not negative.

The only reason unemployment rate has dropped recently is because BLS surveys say the number is negative (a shrinking labor force).

Based on historical data and Bernanke's estimates, one would have expected the unemployment rate to have risen during 2010 and peaked mid-2011. Instead, the unemployment rate fell from 10 to 8.5.


The Real Employment Situation

With that backdrop on historical job trends, please consider an excellent article by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live: The Real Employment Situation Report For December 2011
If you take a look at the actual number of those "counted" as employed, that number has risen from the recessionary trough. However, in reality, employment is still far below the long term historical trend. Currently, the deviation from the long term trend is the widest on record and has made very little improvement.



In order for the country to return to the long-term trend of employment by 2020, we will need to be creating nearly 250,000 jobs each month. This, of course, is a far cry from 200,000 that we saw this month. With the employment-to-population ratio remaining at levels not seen since 1984, the real pressure on the economy remains focused on the consumer.

There are two very negative ramifications of this large and "available" labor pool. The first is that the longer an individual remains unemployed, the more the degradation in job skills weighs on future employment potential and income. The second, and most importantly, is that, with a high level of competition for existing jobs, wages remain under significant downward pressure.

Business owners are highly aware of the employment and business climate, and regardless of the ranting and raving about the "cash on the sidelines", businesses are not operated as charities. Business owners are milking the current employment climate for all it is worth in order to maintain profitability. With high competition levels for existing jobs, and the impeding threat of job loss for those working, employers can work employees longer hours at less pay. This is great for profit margins, and workers won't complain because there are plenty of individuals that will be happy to take their job and do it for less pay.



This impact on wages, as other inflationary pressures rise, hits the consumer where it hurts the most. We have discussed the fact that recent declines in wages and salaries combined with the rising costs of food and energy are consuming more of the household income. This bleed on incomes has led to significant slides in the personal savings rate and the ability for the consumer to continue to spend outside of the main necessities to meet their basic standard of living. This pattern is unsustainable, and sharp decreases in personal savings rates have historically been precursors to the onset of recessions.
Employment Trends Since 1955

In Employment Trends Since 1955 I posted a chart from reader Tim Wallace that conveys the same idea in a different way.

Employment Trends



click on chart for sharper image

Wallace writes ....
Hello Mish

On today's labor report: Note how the labor force has flat lined for four years even though population growth has averaged 1.5 million for the past 55 years. From 1993 to 2007 population growth was 1.7 million per year!

Thus, the labor force should not suddenly turn flat since retirements do not even come close to explaining the chart. Yet, suddenly the work force has just been frozen in time although the population continues on the same upward trend.

The work force is literally one million smaller than during Bush's last year in office. This is statistically impossible, at least judging from historic trends.

We also are still 5.6 million people below the employment number of the peak year in 2007. So, practically speaking we have approximately 11.6 million more people unemployed than in 2007.

If we add the additional 6 million that should be counted as available for the labor force, the unemployment number at the U-3 level surges past 11% as you have said numerous times.

Tim
Shrinking Job Opportunities and the Jobs Gap

Let's look at the same data still one more way.

Please consider Shrinking Job Opportunities: The Challenge of Putting Americans Back to Work
The December Jobs Gap

As of December, our nation continues to face a "jobs gap" of 12.1 million jobs, down by 67,000 jobs from November.

The chart below shows how the jobs gap has evolved since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, and how long it will take to close under different assumptions for job growth. The solid line shows the net number of jobs lost since the Great Recession began. The broken lines track how long it will take to close the jobs gap under alternative assumptions about the rate of job creation going forward.



If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until March 2024—over 12 years—to close the jobs gap. Given a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by February 2017—not for another five years.
Statistically Impossible IFs.

Based on the data tables from the BLS that I posted at the top of this article, each of those dashed line in the above chart represents a statistically impossible IF.

The economy is certainly not going to average 472,000 jobs per month for two years. Nor will it add 321,000 jobs a month for six straight years. Finally, the economy is not going to add 208,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 12 years.

Indeed, one cannot find any 10-year period in which the economy added that number of jobs. The best 10-year period I can find is 195,000 jobs per month from 1991-2000, overlapping decades by 1 year (during the internet boom with hugely falling interest rates and Greenspan's foot on the gas pedal nearly every step of the way).

Fundamental Case for Structurally High Unemployment

  • At the height of the internet bubble with a nonsensical Y2K scare on top of that, the economy managed to gain 264,000 jobs a month.
  • At the height of the housing bubble in 2005, the economy added 208,000 jobs a month.
  • At the height of the commercial real estate bubble with massive store expansion, the economy added somewhere between 91,000 and 173,000 jobs per month depending on where you mark the peak.

Neither the housing boom, nor the commercial real estate boom is coming back. Nor is there going to be another internet revolution.

Moreover, debt levels are high and millions are trapped in their homes, unable to move. Boomers in retirement or headed for retirement have insufficient savings so one cannot expect a spending boom of any kind. Instead, one can expect boomers to draw down on their savings (assuming that have any savings).

In conclusion, the only way the unemployment rate can substantially decline from here is if millions more drop out of the labor force, thereby creating an even bigger "gap" between reality and the BLS's alleged unemployment rate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List