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One way for a candidate to change the conversation around her candidacy: have her followers pelt the opposition with waffles at every public appearance. Eggos in particular are lightweight and their shape makes them easy to toss.
Particularly in primaries, simplicity and certainty are rewarded. The waffling candidate, the one who hesitates to give a clear yes or no answer to every question is seen as weak.
(Worth noting that the word "waffling" didn't start appearing in books much until after the 1960 elections).
Of course, this post isn't about politics at all. Customers and employees and vendors and regulators almost always prefer simplicity and certainty.
There are two ways to begin an answer to most questions we face in organizations:
"It's simple" and
"It's complicated."
Both are usually true. At 10,000 feet, most challenges are simple. But actually making something work is quite complicated.
Nuance is the sign of an intelligent observer. Nuance shows restaint and maturity and an understanding of the underlying mechanics of whatever problem we're wrestling with. After all, if the solution was simple, we would have solved it already.
On the other hand, resorting to nuance early and often can also be a sign of fear, of an unwillingness to go out on a limb and make a difference. Hence the reactions of boards hiring consultants and CEOs, or of passionate primary voters. "Don't tell me it's complicated. Just show me the guts to make something happen."
My vote: your goals and your strategy must be simple. You must have passion and certainty in order to make a difference as a leader. Your tactics, on the other hand, should be layered, multi-dimensional and reflect the patience of someone who cares about reaching a goal.
When Howard Schultz talks about coffee or Jill Greenberg talks about lighting or Cory Booker talks about education, they can impatiently demand clear and simple results. At the same time, successful leaders see the nuance they'll need in executing to get there.
The paradox is that the simplicity we often seek in search of solutions rarely leads to the patient leadership we need to get them.
The irony is not lost on me... the decision on when to be bold is a nuanced one.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet; Another Trillion (or Two) Euro LTRO Coming Next Month Posted: 30 Jan 2012 03:57 PM PST Last month, European banks tapped the ECB for €489bn in a long-term refinance operation dubbed LTRO. On February 29, another round of LTRO is coming up and expect banks to go for the gusto. Banks like cheap money to speculate and that is exactly what they will do. The Financial Times reports Banks set to double crisis loans from ECB European banks are preparing to tap the European Central Bank's emergency funding scheme for up to twice as much as the ECB supplied in its debut €489bn auction last month, providing further evidence of the sector's liquidity squeeze.Unlimited Money for Three Years at One Percent The ECB is offering unlimited money to banks for three years, at one percent. Banks are salivating because the first round went well. The money is supposed to go for bank lending but it won't. Why should banks lend? They have a guaranteed profit by speculating in Spanish or Italian bonds, assuming of course Spain and Italy do not need bailouts coupled with a writedown on government debt. However, that's quite a risk, and in my opinion Spain will need such a writedown. If so, Germany will be on the hook once again. For a discussion about how futile this is, please see Premature Dollar Obituaries and Mainstream Economists' Monetary Insanity; Keynes-Inspired Great Depression; Lessons Not Learned Money Supply Will Soar, Lending Won't Don't expect the next LTRO to make it into the real economy. It won't. Rather the LTRO will fuel more bank speculation and more leverage in government bonds. Money supply will soar, lending won't and this rates to be good for gold. In the meantime, please sing along with Bachman Turner Overdrive (and the ECB). Link if video does not play: Bachman Turner Overdrive - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet . Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 30 Jan 2012 01:01 PM PST Inquiring minds are watching Portuguese government bonds soar into the stratosphere, with record-high bond yields across the entire yield curve. In all the images below, the numbers are accurate but the charts reflect yesterday. I have mentioned this to Bloomberg a number of times to no avail. Portugal 2-year Government Bonds Portugal 3-year Government Bonds Portugal 5-year Government Bonds Portugal 10-year Government Bonds Notice the opens and the lows in the charts above. Bloomberg reports "The Frankfurt-based ECB bought Portuguese government bonds today, according to three people with knowledge of the transactions, who declined to be identified because the deals are confidential. A spokesman for the ECB declined to comment when contacted by phone." My take is the ECB foolishly attempted to manipulate Portugal's bond market at the open, then was blown out of the water in the process. The ECB recklessly bought Greek bond and learned nothing from it. Portugal's Debt Will Be Restructured Adrian Miller, a fixed-income strategist at GMP Securities LLC, talks about the outlook for the European debt crisis. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness with Margaret Brennan." Link if video does not play: Portugal's Debt Will Be Restructured CDS at Record High, 72% Chance of Default Bloomberg reports Credit default swaps implied a 72 percent chance Portugal will default within five years. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 30 Jan 2012 11:23 AM PST The Financial Times reports Brussels hit by strike as EU leaders meet. A general strike brought widespread disruption to Belgium on Monday, as European Union leaders arrived for a summit in Brussels with a focus on boosting employment across the region. Trains, shipping, air travel and public transport were all hit by the trade union action, called in response to reforms enacted hastily by the new government of Elio Di Rupo.Voter distress and open dissent is no where close to peaking. Spain to Miss Deficit Reduction Goals Courtesy of Google Translate, please consider Spain deficit to Hit 6.8% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, according to IMF 6.8% is far from the 4.4% that the European Commission has imposedFrance Halved 2012 Growth Forecast to 0.5 Percent Yahoo! Finance reports EU leaders struggle to reconcile austerity, growth European leaders struggled to reconcile austerity with growth on Monday at a summit that approved a permanent rescue fund for the euro zone and was trying to put finishing touches to a German-driven pact for stricter budget discipline.Bickering Continues It is quite rare, if not unprecedented, for the head of the European Parliament to criticize what Merkel and Sarkozy hailed as "progress", yet that is exactly what happened. European Parliament President Martin Schulz told the leaders the new fiscal treaty was unnecessary and unbalanced, because it failed to combine budget rigor with necessary investment in public works to create jobs.Ten Things to Expect in Europe
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 30 Jan 2012 09:26 AM PST Rumors that a deal will be reached "soon" have gone on for weeks. Indeed announcements of an expected agreement today have already hit new snags. For the sake of argument, let's assume a deal does go through, then crunch the latest numbers to see what the situation looks like from the point of view of Greece (and the lenders as well) before and after the deal. The place to start is the current projection for the size of the next needed bailout. Please consider Greece Needs EU145 Billion in Second Aid Package Greece requires 145 billion euros ($192 billion) as part of a second aid package for the cash- strapped country, 15 billion euros more than was agreed in October 2011, Der Spiegel reported, citing an unidentified official from the so-called troika of European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.Bigger Bailout Needed So, presuming a deal goes through, Greece is going to take on another 145 billion euros of debt, up from 130 billion last week. Let's now turn our attention to the latest deal rumors. Private Investors Near Deal on Greek Debt Bloomberg reports Private Investors Near Deal on Greek Debt Let's assume for the moment that "near" really means "near" and not five weeks from now when undoubtedly Greek conditions will have deteriorated further, requiring of course a bigger bailout. Here are the pertinent ideas from the article to consider.
Three Essential Facts
This is supposed to work? The reduced interest rate to 3.6% will of course help Greece. But what is the interest rate on new debt? Regardless, given Greece's deteriorating financial condition, exactly how long will it take before the EU and IMF realize once again that Greece cannot possibly pay back the new 145 billion? In whose best interest is this deal? I fail to see how it benefits anyone. Merkel Faces Backlash Over Deal The Financial Times reports Merkel faces backlash over EU pact Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is facing growing political pressure at home to demand stricter fiscal discipline from her eurozone partners at an extraordinary European Union summit in Brussels on Monday.Political Zugzwang Zugzwang is a term in chess. A player has to make a move but every move weakens the position. Pass is not an option. Merkel is in such a no-win position. Everything she does will put her under attack by someone. Doing nothing, is an option in politics but not chess. However, doing nothing also exposes Merkel to attack. Attacks Fly Check out this nonsense from former European Commission chief Jacques Delors who says Resistance to eurozone bailout boost 'scandalous' Former European Commission chief Jacques Delors on Sunday blasted the reluctance of eurozone countries like Germany to boost the size of the Greek bailout and create a system of eurobonds to facilitate lending.Delors' Self-Serving Pomp What's scandalous if for political hacks like Delors to assume the Eurozone is worth saving, then tell everyone else how to go about it without taking into consideration any restraints others may have. I suggest the euro is not worth saving. For the sake of argument, however, let's assume the eurozone is worth saving, and start with a look at Merkel's options. Merkel's Predicament
That my friends is political zugzwang and that is precisely why she called for Greece to Cede Sovereignty to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner". Her proposal elevated the ire of Greeks as well as the likes of political hacks like Delors. Yet, that option is the one that made the most sense. It was her least-worst option, that also bought her and the eurozone the most time. It is the only option that has any chance of working. By making those demands, she has a chance of keeping her coalition together. Indeed, if her demand are met or if Greece exits the eurozone in response, she might even be viewed as a hero! Simply put, she is doing everything she can to keep the eurozone together. For doing the best she possibly can under the circumstances, she gets nothing but grief. I think the best thing for the Eurozone would be for Germany to exit. The irony is that would likely happen if Merkel embarked down the path demanded by eurofools like Jacques Delors. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 30 Jan 2012 12:57 AM PST There is massive theoretical as well as actual real life evidence that financial transaction taxes will backfire, but that never stops politicians hell-bent on plowing ahead with "it's different this time" horrendous ideas. Via Google Translate from Les Echos, please consider Sarkozy's stock exchange tax as of August 1 The 0.1% tax on financial transactions will apply from 1 August. In addition to equities, derivatives and high frequency trading are also covered.Sarkozy Wants to "Provoke a Shock" Bloomberg provides more details in Sarkozy Says France to Tax Financial Transactions From August France plans to unilaterally impose a 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions starting in August, President Nicolas Sarkozy said, brushing aside opposition from the nation's banks.Sweden's Experience with the Tobin Tax The Peterson Institute for International Economics presents Sweden's Experience with the Tobin Tax The Swedish Social Democratic government enacted a transaction tax on stocks, bonds, options, and some other securities in 1983. The tax, named after the economist James Tobin, was abolished by the new nonsocialist government in 1991.Sarkozy's Pledge of Going it Alone That discussion is all one should need to read to determine France would be acting very foolishly to implement such a tax. Sarkozy thinks Germany would "soon" follow. As we have seen in the Eurozone, political decisions seldom if ever happen soon. Moreover, why would Germany act instead of watching France for a while? Ironically, as soon as Germany saw the results in France (which likely would be soon), there is little chance they would implement such a foolish thing ever. But what if all the European countries agreed to do it? We already know the UK opted out, but for the sake of argument, let's assume even the UK agreed. The first that that would happen would be a mad scramble to execute transactions in the US, Switzerland, or Hong Kong. Nonetheless, let's assume the long arm of the law still managed to tax those transactions. What then? Expect Increased Volatility, Decreased Trading Volumes, Lower Share Prices The Adam Smith Institute offers a Comparative Study of the Potential Effects of a UK Tobin Tax. Here are some snips. Sweden's Experience with the Tobin taxCapital Flight The experience of Sweden is one of capital flight. Odds are it would happen again. The ATM Effect The Adam Smith article contained an interesting analogy regarding ATM usage. When fees were zero, people would think nothing of doing an ATM transaction for $20. With fees of $2, you have to be pretty desperate to do an ATM transaction for $20. Instead, you would do one for your maximum limit. Some only use an ATM in an emergency and keep a pile of cash in their house instead. In a falling market short-term traders provide liquidity (so do those shorting). Yet, Robin Hood proponents will drive those short-term traders away. "In thinner markets, each trade would have a larger impact on price; resulting in less fluidity within the currency inventories of broker-dealers, the 'liquidity providers' of the market." I fail to see how reduced liquidity and increased volatility will not be the result. Four Reasons Tobin Tax is a Bad Idea
The results in Sweden are conclusive. A 'low' 0.003% tax levied on 5-year bonds caused trading volumes dropped by 85% in the first week after implementation. Five-year US treasuries now yield .74%. Three-month treasuries yield .05%. Corporate bond yields are pathetic. How much of that do you want to take away? Excluding bonds is not the answer. Liquidity and capital flight arguments suggests this idea should never get off the ground for any transactions. By the way, buyers of CDS are often hedgers. Tax them heavily and there will be less interest in the underlying bonds. I would also point out that the speculators Sarkozy want to drive out of the market just happen to provide liquidity. Short sellers eventually cover, and provide fuel for rallies. Day traders will step into falling markets when others won't. Sarkozy will "provoke a shock" alright, and it may crash the markets when he does. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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