Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Will Le Pen Be on the Ballot Against Sarkozy and Hollande? Does it Matter?
- Bernanke Finally Says Something That Seems to Make Sense "8.3% Unemployment Understates Labor Weakness"; Critique of Bernanke's 2014 Pledge; Perfectly Useless Projections
- Spotlight China: Electricity Consumption Drops Sharply; Central Bank Vows Housing Support; Oil Imports From Iran Fall Again; Asia Real-Estate Bull Turns Bearish
Will Le Pen Be on the Ballot Against Sarkozy and Hollande? Does it Matter? Posted: 08 Feb 2012 04:30 PM PST Not many people realize this but in spite of polling anywhere between 16% and 22% in recent election polls, Marine Le Pen might not be included on the French presidential ballot. The reason is Le Pen needs 500 signatures by elected official supporting her campaign. Le Pen says she only has 350. I had been aware of this for some time but figured she could scrape up 500 signatures from a pool of 47,000 or so bureaucrats eligible to sign. Perhaps not. Please consider Le Pen attacks all sides over 'pathetic' poll Far-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen slammed a poll in a Sunday newspaper that asked people how they would vote if she was not on the ballot paper.Does it Matter? The answer is not straight forward. It depends on the meaning of "matter". Le Pen was not going to win. If she is off the ballot, More first-round votes will go to Nicolas Sarkozy than François Hollande. However, in the second round of voting (recall French elections are two-stage with the top two candidates competing in a runoff), Polls show Hollande beating Sarkozy by 58% to 42% margin. Even if she bumped off Sarkozy, she would not win. Nor will Sarkozy win. Thus from a candidate point of view, one might say it does not matter. However, the process is certainly a defeat of democracy. Nothing is served by a process of keeping her off the ballot. Indeed, if she is as bad as Sarkozy claims, then voters should recognize that as well. The 36,000 mayors and 11,000 other bureaucrats eligible to vote have to do so publicly. Le Pen has a challenge into the French Supreme Court on the secret ballot issue. That case will be heard on February 22 as noted by Reuters in French far right say big parties muzzling democracy. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 08 Feb 2012 10:19 AM PST I nearly always disagree with Bernanke on monetary and fiscal policy. Specifically, the Fed ought not have a monetary policy for the simple reason the Fed should not exist. Indeed, the Bernanke Fed and the Greenspan Fed have both proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they do not know what they are doing, where the economy is headed, or anything else of relevance in setting monetary policy. However, on rare occasions, Bernanke can say a few snippets that seem to make complete sense. For example, Bernanke Says 8.3% Unemployment Understates Labor Weakness. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the 8.3 percent rate of unemployment in January understates weakness in the U.S. labor market.Disagreements Already I agree with most of the above analysis, but the more Bernanke or the Fed talks, the quicker a disagreement is bound to arise. The problem above is the Fed's growth projection. The Fed could be right, I just highly doubt it. Let's put it this way, Bernanke has been seriously wrong so many times on economic projections that perhaps by accident he finally gets one correct. "8.3% Unemployment Understates Labor Weakness" Some things are so obvious even Bernanke seems to understand. His labor weakness statement is one of them. I said similar things on Monday, with far more details and reasons, in Fewer Nonfarm Employees Now Than December 2000; Unemployment Rate: Some Things Still Don't Add Up; Obamanomics? Please click on link for a series of charts showing just how weak the recovery has been and just how understated the unemployment rate is. Critique of Bernanke's Pledge to Hold Rates to Zero Through 2014 The strange thing here is that although Bernanke seems to understand the likeliness of further economic weakness, most analysts and writers are tooting the horns of an economic recovery, while chastising Bernanke for promising to hold rates low until 2014, as if the decline in unemployment rate is meaningful. I disagree with the Fed's rate decision for a different fundamental reason: a bunch of academics chasing their tails cannot effectively set interest rates (only the market can). That simple fact has been proven is spades. Analysis of Bernanke's "Labor Weakness" Statements Unfortunately, Bernanke's statements offer surprising little economic insight. For example, please consider the Fed's estimate that the "unemployment rate will average 8.2 percent to 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter". Perfectly Useless Projection Let's assume Bernanke is correct. Is that a meaningful projection? The short answer is the projection, even if totally accurate, is perfectly useless. Let's analyze "why? in light of Bernanke's estimate that it takes 125,000 jobs a month to keep up with demographics (birthrate plus immigration). Three Cases In Which Unemployment Rate Stays Flat
It would be more useful (assuming there is any use to Bernanke's statements which is certainly debatable) to know just what he is thinking because those three scenarios are vastly different in terms of economic significance, even though they all project the same 8.2 percent to 8.5 percent unemployment rate prediction. In other words, the Fed's projection, even if accurate, is totally useless, not that anyone should be paying any attention to what he says in the first place. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 08 Feb 2012 12:54 AM PST Inquiring minds are tired of the spotlight on Greece (believe me I am as sick as anyone of Groundhog Day). Given the world will not end when Greece defaults, whether in March of this year or next, let's turn our attention to a country far more significant. Chinese Electricity Consumption Fell Massively In January Business Insider reports Chinese Electricity Consumption Fell Massively In January, And The Chinese New Year Doesn't Explain It Ultra-brief note here from Nomura's Zhiwei Zhang :China Pressures Iran On Oil Prices China has stepped up the pressure on Iran in the face of Europe's oil embargo. Business World reports China's Oil Imports From Iran Reduced Again China will reduce its crude oil imports from Iran for a third month, sources said today, as the two remain divided over payment and price terms, although they plan to meet again for talks as early as this week.China Central Bank Vows Housing Support In a sure sign that property prices in China are crashing faster than the Chinese government wants, China Central Bank Vows Housing Support China's central bank pledged support for first-home buyers as a crackdown on real-estate speculation threatens to trigger a property slump in the world's second- biggest economy.Too Late to Prevent a Hard Landing Given the massive size of China's property bubble, it's far too late to prevent a crash landing. The only way to prevent crashes is to not let bubbles get so big in the first place. Asia Real-Estate Bull Turns Bearish MarketWatch reports Asia Real-Estate Bull Turns Bearish Asia's gradually cooling property markets aren't the great buys they once were, according to one expert in the region, who says better bargains can be found in the depressed markets in the West.Infomercial for Property-Advisory Firm IP Global As much as I agree with the headline message, I have to comment the same message could have and should have been said years ago. Given the illiquid nature of real estate, one cannot sell on a dime when the market turns. "We see what's happening as a great chance for Asians to buy overseas at the moment," Murphy said, adding that in December he opened an office in Shanghai to tap the growing interest among China's newly wealthy for overseas homes. Given the entire two-page article was about Murphy and his firm, I have to ask "Was that an news story by MarketWatch or an infomercial for Tim Murphy?" Regardless, anyone who bought in China in the last couple years and has not sold yet is now likely trapped. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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