Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Sarkozy Breaks Campaign Pledge, Says Treaty Too Complicated For A Vote
- Capital Flight From Italy, Greece, Portugal Accelerates; Two Trillion Fantasy; Merkel Weaker Every Week; Crude and Geopolitical Risks
- Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention; How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign
Sarkozy Breaks Campaign Pledge, Says Treaty Too Complicated For A Vote Posted: 27 Feb 2012 09:53 PM PST French president Nicolas Sarkozy is campaigning on a pledge to consult people directly on "significant issues". However, despite trailing in polls, Sarkozy refuses to agree to referendum on EU fiscal treaty. Mr Sarkozy, who is trailing the socialist François Hollande in opinion polls seven weeks before the presidential election, came under pressure to promise a referendum on the pact after he pledged to consult the people directly on significant issues if re-elected.Too Complicated To Form a Clear Question? Sarkozy says "I can't see how you'd formulate a clear question." Mish Attempt to Formulate Clear Question For Voters
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 27 Feb 2012 08:49 AM PST Via Email, here is a nice summary of European events from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo Bank in Denmark. Topics include the G20 Summit, Extend-and-Pretend Dogma, Capital Flight , and Geopolitical Risks. Steen Writes ... Two Trillion FantasyMike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 27 Feb 2012 12:33 AM PST There are 2,286 republican delegates. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the Republication nomination. With four candidates remaining, many are wondering about the likelihood of a brokered convention where no candidate wins in the first round. Conventional wisdom suggests there will not be a brokered convention. From where I sit, one is increasingly likely. Following is a table of delegates won so far (totals from Real Clear Politics Delegate Count), plus my projections of all primaries and caucuses through Super-Tuesday on March 6 (based on recent polls).
* States penalized half of their delegates. Thru Super-Tuesday Scenarios Romney 359 Others 423 (Romney wins Idaho) Romney 327 Others 455 (Romney loses Idaho) Notes
Michigan Prediction 30 Delegates Percent: Romney-40% Santorum-35% Gingrich-8% Paul-12% Delegates: Romney-13 Santorum-11 Gingrich-2 Paul-4 Real Clear Politics Michigan Primary Poll Arizona Prediction 29 Delegates Arizona is "Winner Take All" Romney wins all 29 Delegates Real Clear Politics Arizona Primary Poll Washington Prediction 43 Delegates Percent: Romney-30% Santorum-38% Gingrich-12% Paul-17% Delegates: Romney-13 Santorum-17 Gingrich-5 Paul-8 Real Clear Politics Washington Caucus Poll Georgia Prediction 76 Delegates Percent: Romney-24% Santorum-26% Gingrich-33% Paul-10% Delegates: Romney-19 Santorum-22 Gingrich-27 Paul-8 Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday Poll (Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Vermont) Ohio Prediction 66 Delegates Percent: Romney-26% Santorum-38% Gingrich-19% Paul-10% Delegates: Romney-19 Santorum-27 Gingrich-13 Paul-7 Tennessee Prediction 58 Delegates Percent: Romney-26% Santorum-40% Gingrich-12% Paul-16% Delegates: Romney-16 Santorum-25 Gingrich-7 Paul-10 Vanderbilt University Tennessee Primary Survey Virginia Prediction 49 Delegates Romney wins all 49 Virginia delegates. Virginia has a proportional allocation with a twist. Should any candidate take 50% in a district, the candidate will all votes in the district. In a display of complete ineptitude, Santorum and Gingrich failed to collect and turn in enough signatures on time and are not on the ballot. Romney is currently polling about 53% and Paul 23%, but Paul can only win delegates if he outright wins a district. Oklahoma Prediction 43 Delegates Percent: Romney-23% Santorum-42% Gingrich-20% Paul-9% Delegates: Romney-11 Santorum-18 Gingrich-9 Paul-5 Massachusetts Prediction 41 Delegates Percent: Romney-64% Santorum-16% Gingrich-6% Paul-8% Delegates: Romney-28 Santorum-8 Gingrich-2 Paul-3 Idaho Prediction 32 Delegates Romney wins all 32 Idaho delegates January Straw Poll Results Romney-34% Santorum-10% Gingrich-12% Paul-43% February Straw Poll Results Romney-45.4% Paul 42.7% A third straw poll will be held March 1-3 and my answer may change based on the results of that poll. Ron Paul or Mitt Romney will likely take all of the delegates based on the explanation below. Whether or not Paul or Romney takes all the votes depends entirely on whether or not Gingrich or Santorum can win any counties which at this time looks doubtful. Idaho Caucus Explanation: Voters will go to locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.I cannot find any recent polls for North Dakota, Alaska, or Vermont. Romney should do extremely well in Vermont and fair at best in North Dakota and Alaska. North Dakota Prediction 28 Delegates Percent: Romney-35% Santorum-40% Gingrich-10% Paul-10% Delegates: Romney-10 Santorum-12 Gingrich-3 Paul-3 Alaska Prediction 27 Delegates Percent: Romney-35% Santorum-40% Gingrich-10% Paul-10% Delegates: Romney-10 Santorum-11 Gingrich-3 Paul-3 Vermont Prediction 17 Delegates Percent: Romney-64% Santorum-16% Gingrich-6% Paul-8% Delegates: Romney-11 Santorum-4 Gingrich-1 Paul-1 How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign I purposely bumped up Romney's percentages to see if a brokered convention would still be possible. I also awarded Romney all 32 delegates in Idaho even though that race is a statistical dead-heat with Ron Paul. If Ron Paul wins Idaho, and the rest of my numbers above are close, the odds of a brokered convention are well above 50 percent in my estimation. There may be a brokered convention anyway, provided Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich stay in to the end. Fuzzy Math The New York Times discusses The G.O.P.'s Fuzzy Delegate Math. There are 2,286 delegates to the Republican National Convention, of which 1,144 are required to clinch a majority. The Web site TheGreenPapers.com, which has extensive information on delegate-selection procedures in each state, divides them into two broad categories, what it calls "hard" and "soft." Hard delegates are formally bound to a candidate on at least the first ballot at the convention, while soft delegates are not.Legal Challenges on the Way I did not take any of the bound, unbound, super-delegate counts into consideration. However, I was rather generous to Romney in other ways. Moreover, there are legal challenges pending in Arizona and Florida. Winner-Take-All primaries are a violation of Republican National Committee rules if held before April 1. As it stands, Romney 50 Florida delegates and 29 Arizona delegates that could dramatically change the totals. Should Romney loses those challenges and also lose Idaho, a brokered convention would be all but certain. If Wishes Were Fishes If wishes (mine) were fishes, then Ron Paul would win the nomination outright. A more realistic wish is for a brokered convention because Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich are all likely to lose to Obama. I believe Paul would defeat Obama although polls don't currently support that idea. Republicans Need to Face the Facts Of the four candidates, only Ron Paul balances the budget, only Ron Paul wants to stop the war-mongering, only Ron Paul does not alienate the majority of women, only Ron Paul can ignite a fire in independents, and independents (not the radical right), are the key to this election. Republicans are not going to vote for Obama so appealing to the far right makes little sense in terms of an overall strategy. Moreover, independents are likely horrified by the war-mongering and misguided statements on religious and social issues of all the candidates but Paul. If Republicans lose this election, it will be because they all outdid each other in foolish attempts to appeal to the far right on issues where a huge majority of the population of the US is in the middle. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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