luni, 5 martie 2012

How to Leverage Content Communities to Expand Your Brand Reach

How to Leverage Content Communities to Expand Your Brand Reach


How to Leverage Content Communities to Expand Your Brand Reach

Posted: 04 Mar 2012 12:37 PM PST

Posted by Julianne Staino

“Content is King!”

Ah, the wonderfully overused statement that makes me want to throw my monitor at the wall and then hang my head in shame because it’s actually true. I feel like I can safely assume that we can all agree on the increasing importance of awesome content. Recently, it seems like everyone is championing for companies to evolve the way in which they approach creating content. (Ie. Coca-Cola’s 2020 content strategy. If you haven’t watched these videos, I’d highly recommend investing 20 minutes in order to see how big brands are changing the way they think about a cohesive marketing strategy) Here in the Distilled NYC office, I’m surrounded by Tom Critchlow and John Doherty who are single handedly pushing companies to have inspired content and changing marketers mindsets.

This is great and all, and ‘imma let you boys finish, but shifting a companies’ mindset and creating inspiring pieces is tough!

Note: I am in no way suggesting we don’t strive to achieve this, we should always try to effect change and produce content that strikes a nerve within. I’m just pointing out the obvious fact that these content strategies are a longer-term play.

Besides the obvious SEO benefits to having unique content, engaging materials also help your customers remember your brand. So by having things people find interesting on your site, the more likely it is for them to come back. However, what if you’re not Coke and don’t have a huge fan/customer base to rely on along with a marketing budget that has a lot of zeros? All this amazing content you’re producing is falling on deaf ears. Of course you’ll most likely push the content through all the various social channels to hopefully gain some traction, but again this will mainly reach people that already know about your brand.

So how do you create excellent pieces of content that attracts a new audience and spreads your brand reach?

Well, if you are a company that doesn’t have time or resources to invest heavily into outreach you can create content for specific content niche communities. Typically, before I begin working on a creative piece or kick-off linkbuilding or produce any form of content for a client, I think:

“Who would want to read/watch/listen to this?”

and

“What 5 sites would link to this?”

By doing this, I’m ensuring that I have a clear understanding of why I’m producing this content.  So, by creating content specifically for certain communities you are targeting a new audience that has an interest in a specific form.

Below I will outline some content communities where you should be targeting to either create content for or place pre-existing awe-inspiring content!

Why I Chose These Communities

Note: this is not a comprehensive list – my goal was to put together a list of actionable platforms that you can actually get your content placed on.

I did not try and form a comprehensive list for each specific niche. I did however, choose platforms where YOU can upload your own unique content*. By doing this, I tried to cut down on some outreach time while still allowing you to gain brand exposure.

So what are you waiting for, read on and get your content on :)

*excluding Longreads

Video

Video content is like the new “sliced bread”. Where were we before it? Video content is becoming increasingly more important through blended searches and allows brands to break up walls of text. However, when I refer to video content I’m not referring to basic Q&A video content or testimonials. I’m suggesting you create non-promotional video content that is aesthetically creative *gasp* The key to video communities (and why most fail) is that they’re too self-serving and brand boosting. RESIST THE URGE!

WHO DOES IT WELL: The Desperados Experience

Vimeo

Dailymotion

Youtube I couldn’t talk about video communities without including Youtube! If you have any type of videos, make sure you create a brand channel and upload all of your videos.

Data Visualization

Although infographics are great when you have a story to tell, (that’s key! Actually have something to say, if not your infographic will be crap.) I’ll be focusing on data visualization. If you have market/customer data at your disposal, turn it into something! Whether it’s static, animated or interactive, you should put all that research to good use and get it in front of a data-loving audience.

WHO DOES IT WELL: Uber

Visual.ly

Visualizing.org

Images

Big high-res images are all the rage and I have to say, I’m a fan! I’ve been seeing ecommerce sites  and blogs transitioning from regular thumbnail images to huge images taking up some prime above-the fold real-estate. If you‘re looking to get people talking, linking, and sharing your images, invest in some photography.

WHO DOES IT WELL: Fab

Pinterest 

Tumblr

Long-form

What happened to the good ‘ole days when you’d sit down with the paper and read (from beginning to end) a multi-page piece? Although those instances are becoming few and far between, the resurgence of long-form content is on the rise. People may like getting to the point quickly, but if a story warrants a deep dive don’t be afraid to go there and go all in.

WHO DOES IT WELL: The New Yorker 

Longreads 

Longform

Main Takeaways

Find a specific audience for your content, outside of your site.

By looking to target different audiences for a certain type of content, you are actively pushing your brands exposure and not resting on what you already have. In order to gain new customers you have to be thinking about new opportunities and how you can penetrate different markets. To do this, creating content specific materials is key.  

Create content that provides value for that content community.

Once you identify a new market, (like all forms of linkbuilding) you have to create something of value. If your materials offer little value to your new community you will be burning your new found bridge. Pro tip: produce something people will actually care about.

Have fun with it!

Not everything should (or needs to be) a sales pitch. Make sure your content falls in line with the tone & feel of previously posted content. If your content sticks out like a sore thumb, you most likely won’t get any traction. Although you might get the urge, or internal pressure, to plaster your company’s name everywhere - don’t. Branding too much will appear as if you’re trying to get something out it (not received well).

Don’t half a** it.

 If your content stinks and you put it out to a community who is passionate for long-form, they’ll call you out and you don’t want that sort of attention.  Like everything your produce, you should be confident and proud with what you’re putting out. If you’re not, go back and try harder.

Don’t rest on your brands laurels.

Push your content outside of your company’s Twitter and Facebook accounts and don’t rely on them to do all the work. If you want to grow your audience and your brand than move outside of what you normally do. Your brand is only as strong as you make it.


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Photo: POTUS and Bo Have an Oval Office Meeting

The White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, March 5, 2012

 

Photo: POTUS and Bo Have an Oval Office Meeting

During the month of January, official White House photographers captured some incredible moments -- from giving the State of the Union Address, to leading "First Dog," Bo, into the Oval Office.

Interested in seeing more adorable behind-the-scenes photos from the White House? Check out our Flickr photostream.

030512 Bo

President Barack Obama looks back as Bo, the Obama family dog, follows him into the Oval Office, Jan. 27, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

New Data: The Affordable Care Act in Your State
The Obama Administration releases a new source of data, Health Reform: Results in Your State, to show how the Affordable Care Act's benefits and protections are helping Americans across the country.

President Obama Speaks at the AIPAC Policy Conference
President Obama reaffirms the strength of our nation’s special bond with Israel at the AIPAC Policy Conference in Washington, D.C.

Weekly Address: Taking Control of Our Energy Future
President Obama talks about how the American auto industry is back and creating cars that are better than ever -- and says we need to fight for a clean energy future that is within our reach.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

9:30 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

10:45 AM: The President meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu

12:00 PM: The President attends an expanded lunch meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu

12:00 PM: The Vice President holds a bilateral meeting with Mexican President Felipe Calderón

2:45 PM: The Vice President meets with Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Party of the Democratic Revolution presidential candidate

3:45 PM: The President meets with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner

3:45 PM: The Vice President meets with Enrique Peña Nieto, the Institutional Revolutionary Party presidential candidate

4:45 PM: The President meets with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

4:45 PM: The Vice President meets with Josefina Vázquez Mota, the National Action Party presidential candidate

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : Fear, scarcity and value

Fear, scarcity and value

The things we fear are probably feared by others, and when we avoid them, we're doing what others are doing as well.

Which is why there's a scarcity of whatever work it is we're avoiding.

And of course, scarcity often creates value.

The shortcut is simple: if you're afraid of something, of putting yourself out there, of creating a kind of connection or a promise, that's a clue that you're on the right track. Go, do that.

 

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duminică, 4 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Australia Services Index Plunges to Significant Contraction; Bleakest of Views From Retail Shops; Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up

Posted: 04 Mar 2012 05:54 PM PST

Two more signs surfaced today that suggest Australia is headed for if not in recession.

Australia Services Index Plunges, Now in Contraction

Bloomberg reports Australian February Services Fall to Lowest in Almost a Year
Australia's services industry declined in February to the lowest level in almost a year, driven by a drop in new orders as the gap between resources and other industries widens, a private survey showed.

The performance of services index sank to 46.7 last month from 51.9 in January, the weakest reading since March last year, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australian Industry Group said in Sydney today. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Today's report, based on a poll of about 200 companies, is similar to the U.S. non-manufacturing ISM index.
Australia Service Index Components
  • Index sank to 46.7 from 51.9
  • Selling prices fell to 44.2 from 46.9
  • Employment measure slid to 47.5 from 51.2
  • Sales declined to 47.5 from 49.4
  • New orders plunged to 45.6 from 54.1
  • Wages indicator dipped to 57.7 from 57.8

This is nothing short of an absolute disaster. That wages have held up is not good news either. Think retailers or any other service industries will be hiring? If so, think again.

Bleakest of Views From Retail Shops

The Herald Sun comments on the Bleakest of views from the shopfronts.
THE Australian retail sector is in trouble like it's never been before. Not even in the dark days of the 1990 recession.

That should have been made blindingly clear when Woolworths, our biggest and most successful retail group, unveiled on Thursday its first drop in profit in nearly 20 years.

Yes, Woolies is getting out of electronics because it stuffed up with Dick Smith.

This story is repeated, with varying degrees of intensity, across all retail.

The casualty list is long and growing. From women's fashions - one of the mainstays of shopping - to housewares and home furnishings, to the big department stores.

Sales are struggling, profits are plunging, jobs are being slashed and names are disappearing from high streets and shopping centres.
The article concludes with complete economic drivel...
The numbers from the big listed retailers, such as Harvey Norman and David Jones, are ominous enough. We are not really seeing the havoc wreaked across small mum-and-dad retailing.

Lower interest rates would help, leaving more money in consumers' pockets.

That's why it's not wise to rule out further rate cuts, just because of the continued boom in the resources sector.

The jobs and spending from the boom, at least, put some floor under retail. But for the foreseeable future it's going to be good for shoppers.

Not so good for shopkeepers. Or the broader economy.
Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up

There is so much misguided drivel in the article that I hardly know where to start.

Here is some nonsense about a shopper's sweet spot: "For shoppers, it's something of a sweet spot. They've never had it so good. The $100 you spend in a supermarket buys you about 5 per cent more in goods than it did a year ago."

Retail prices in Australia are absurd. A 5% reduction in prices is hardly a bargain. As for the notion mining will carry the economy, forget about it. Commodity prices are going to plunge, and besides, commodities are not a big driver of jobs anyway.

There is no "floor" under retail. The bottom is going to fall out, and unemployment is going to soar. In turn, rising unemployment will clobber Australia's already deep-in-trouble housing sector.

As for small shops, they are completely doomed. Store owners with little leeway on wages will not get the income they need to pay taxes, interest, utilities, and rent.

Expect an across the board retail and housing bloodbath because one is coming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Ron Paul on Face the Nation Blasts Rush Limbaugh's Insincere Apology, Santorum's Fake Conservatism, Government Mandates; Rooting for Santorum; 10 Things That Should Be Clear

Posted: 04 Mar 2012 03:27 PM PST

Ron Paul was on Face the Nation today discussing Rush Limbaugh, Rick Santorum, and Government Mandates.



CBS News reports Paul: Limbaugh apologized for personal gain.
Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul said an apology by conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh to Georgetown Law student Sandra Fluke for calling her a "slut" and a "prostitute" was not sincere, and was made only because it best served Limbaugh.

"He's doing it because some people were taking their advertisements off of his program. It was his bottom line he was concerned about," Paul said.

Paul referred to three companies that pulled advertisements from Limbaugh's show following incendiary remarks Limbaugh made about Fluke for testifying before a mock Congressional committee in favor of free contraception insurance coverage at Georgetown, a Jesuit university. [One company's spokesman said that Limbaugh's comments "do not align [with] our values." Another pulled out "Due to continued inflammatory comments - along with valuable feedback from clients and team members" about the remarks.]

Although Paul disagreed with Limbaugh's remarks and called them "over the top," he said the government should not mandate that insurance companies provide contraception coverage.

"This is philosophically and politically important because, does the government have a mandate to tell insurance (companies) what to give?" Paul asked, and then responded to his own question: "So they're saying that the insurance companies should give everybody free birth control pill, that strikes me as rather odd."

Paul was specific in his attack against former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and his support (as Senator) for Planned Parenthood dollars in a government funding bill.

"He pretends to be the champion of social values," Paul told Schieffer. "That to me is rather bizarre, and that's why I call him a fake conservative."
Attack by Limbaugh Awakens a 'Stop Rush' Campaign

The New York Times reports Attack by Limbaugh Awakens a 'Stop Rush' Campaign
Some of the same activists that persuaded advertisers to boycott Glenn Beck's television show on Fox News in 2009 are now mobilizing against Rush Limbaugh in the wake of his verbal attacks on a Georgetown University law school student this week.

Actually, they are remobilizing. A Twitter account, "Stop Rush," which has been dormant since late 2010, woke up on Wednesday, when Mr. Limbaugh first called the student, Sandra Fluke, a "slut."

On Friday, as complaints from "Stop Rush" and others about Mr. Limbaugh's comments mounted, a handful of companies said that they had halted their advertising on "The Rush Limbaugh Show," at least temporarily.

One of the companies, Quicken Loans, wrote on Twitter, "Due to continued inflammatory comments — along with valuable feedback from clients and team members — QL has suspended ads on Rush Limbaugh program."

Two mattress companies, Sleep Train and Sleep Number, made similar statements on Friday. A representative of Sleep Number wrote on Twitter, "Recent comments by Rush Limbaugh do not align w/ our values, so we made decision to immediately suspend all advertising on that program."
Limbaugh the Epitome of Everything Wrong With Republican Party

Rush Limbaugh and his ilk are the epitome of everything wrong with the Republican party. Limbaugh is a chickenhawk, a sexist, was fired from sports broadcasting for being a racist, was arrested on drug charges, and was addicted to pain killers.

Yet the blazing hypocrite stated "Drug use, some might say, is destroying this country. And we have laws against selling drugs, pushing drugs, using drugs, importing drugs. ... And so if people are violating the law by doing drugs, they ought to be accused and they ought to be convicted and they ought to be sent up."

Asinine talk might appeal to the far right, but the far right is not going to carry the day. Republicans need to be seeking the middle ground and independents. Divisive attacks on abortion, birth control pills, and refusal to consider military cuts are not going to win over independents.

Rooting for Santorum

New York Times columnist Joe Nocera says he is Rooting for Santorum.
I'm rooting for Rick Santorum to win the Republican nomination. Seriously.

You probably think that is because it would be the best possible outcome for President Obama. No doubt it would be. If Santorum were the Republican nominee for president, the independents disenchanted with Obama would come flocking back; their fear of Santorum's unyielding brand of social conservatism would far outweigh their reservations about the incumbent president. A Santorum nomination would likely lead to an epic defeat, ranking with Richard Nixon's 49-to-1 state landslide victory over George McGovern in 1972, or Ronald Reagan's 49-to-1 state whipping of Walter Mondale 12 years later.

But it's not the Democrats I'm really concerned with. It's the Republicans. For more than a decade now, moderate Republicans have been an endangered species, either losing elections or choosing to retire in the face of a hard-line challenger.

During the McGovern-Mondale era, the Democrats were exactly where the Republicans are now: the party had been taken over by its most extreme liberal faction, and it had lost touch with the core concerns of the middle class, just as the Republicans have now.

One person who was drummed out is Lincoln Chafee, the governor of Rhode Island, a Republican turned independent. "I care about deficits," he told me, "but, on social issues, I believe that people should have the right to make their own decisions." As a result, he said, "I realized that there wasn't any room in the Republican Party for me."

When I asked him what it would take to change the Republican Party, he had a quick answer: "What it usually takes is a good drubbing at election time."

If Mitt Romney takes the nomination and then loses to Obama, the extremists who've taken over the party will surely say the problem was Romney's lack of ideological purity. If, however, Santorum is the nominee — and then loses in a landslide — the party will no longer be able to delude itself about where its ideological rigidity has taken it.

An alcoholic doesn't stop drinking until he hits bottom. The Republican Party won't change until it hits bottom. Only Santorum offers that possibility.
The Republican party needs to get rid of the extreme right-wingers like Limbaugh and Santorum, the phonies like Mitt Romney, and the war-mongers like McCain. If they did, they could hold the center for decades (assuming there was anything left of the party).

10 Things That Should Be Clear

  1. It should be clear by now that cutting taxes and spending more money will not shrink the budget.
  2. It should be clear by now the US cannot afford to have troops in 140 countries 
  3. It should be clear by now that wars are expensive and we cannot afford more of them
  4. It should be clear by now that some bargaining is needed to bring the deficit under control
  5. It should be clear by now that some tax hikes coupled with genuine structural reforms to rein in collective bargaining of public unions would be a good idea
  6. It should be clear by now that republicans need independents and the center to win
  7. It should be clear by now that the war on drugs cannot be won, should not be fought, and US prisons are overloaded at great expense as a result
  8. It should be clear we need less government on social issues, on drugs, on war-mongering, on taxes, on education, on spending, on everything, not just half of everything along party lines.
  9. It should be clear that Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Rush Limbaugh are not the future of the Republican party
  10. It should be clear Republicans risk losing to a very weak, unpopular Democrat president in the midst of economic uncertainty and miserably high unemployment rates

Those things should be clear but obviously they are not. Perhaps a Democrat landslide is what it takes to make the case clear.

 Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Super Tuesday Delegate Rules and Preview; Brokered Convention Revised Math

Posted: 04 Mar 2012 01:55 AM PST

On Monday February 27, I laid out the Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention. Since then, Michigan, Wyoming, and Washington have posted results. The table below reflects those results.

I made additional changes to my super Tuesday estimates based on new information regarding delegate rules. For example, many states have minimum percentages to receive any delegates and this favors Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum except in Georgia where rules heavily favor Gingrich.

Finally, the LA times and Krem have posted different explanations for how the Idaho caucus works. There are now three possible scenarios for Idaho in play (depending on which explanation is correct).

Totals through March 3 in the table below are from Real Clear Politics 2012 Republican Delegates.

March 6 Super Tuesday numbers are my estimates.

StatePrimaryCountRomneySantorumGingrichPaul
Total to Date-374166723329
IowaJan 3286700
New HampshireJan 1012*7003
South CarolinaJan 212520230
FloridaJan 3150*50000
NevadaFeb 42814365
Minnesota **Feb 74021714
Colorado **Feb 73691721
Maine **Feb 11249307
MichiganFeb 2830*161400
ArizonaFeb 282929000
Wyoming **Feb 292910816
Washington **Mar 34312303
GeorgiaMar 676246460
OhioMar 666363000
TennesseeMar 658203800
VirginiaMar 64949000
OklahomaMar 6431221100
MassachusettsMar 64138300
Idaho **Mar 632180014
North DakotaMar 6288767
AlaskaMar 627101133
VermontMar 61715200
Super Tuesday EstMar 681139619013153

* States penalized half of their delegates.
** Not all delegates assigned, or assigned to candidates who have dropped out
*** Idaho Rules are in Question. See explanation below.

Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Splits)
Romney: 396
Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 374
Other:  41

Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Goes to Paul)
Romney: 378
Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 392
Other:  41

Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Goes to Romney)
Romney: 410
Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 360
Other:  41

As you can see there is a decent-sized swing in play for Idaho, depending on the exact caucus rules. Even assuming Romney wins 100% of the Idaho delegates, he would still have barely over 50% of the delegates to date. However, that would probably, but not necessarily be enough as he would pick up some of those 41 and he rates to do reasonably well in California.

Nonetheless, even if Romney does as outlined above, the possibility for a brokered convention still exists. If Romney does worse than expected on Super Tuesday, it's a whole new ball game. It would also be a whole new ballgame if Romney were to do poorly in California, or split the delegates three ways here on out.

Super Tuesday Delegate Rules, Preview, Estimates

The rules for each primary are from the LA Times article Super Tuesday 2012: What's at stake and who's in the lead

Except where noted, polls are from Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday Poll.

GEORGIA PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 76
How it works: 34 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. The winner in each of the state's 14 congressional districts will earn another two delegates, and the second-place finisher will win one, unless one candidate wins more than 50% in a district.



Georgia Predictions
Gingrich wins all 14 districts for 28
Romney comes in second in all 14 districts for 14
Gingrich gets 52% of 34 for 18
Romney gets 28% of 34 for 10
Santorum gets 20% of 34 for 6

Totals
Gingrich: 46
Romney: 24
Santorum: 6
Paul: 0

OHIO PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 66
How it works: 15 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If a candidate has more than 50%, though, he wins all 15. Another three delegates will be awarded to the winner in each of the state's 16 congressional districts.
In both cases, voters are electing delegates who have pledged to vote for a presidential nominee. Santorum, it should be noted, did not file delegate lists in all of the congressional districts.
The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.



Santorum is not on the ballot in 3 of 13 districts.
See Family of three GOP delegates gets Santorum on ballot in an Ohio district for an explanation.

Ohio Predictions
Of the 15 at-large

Romney: 7
Santorum: 8

Of 16 Districts
Romney wins 3 by default and 6 contested for 27 delegates
Santorum wins 7 contested for 21 delegates

State Party Leaders give Romney 2, Santorum 1

Totals
Romney: 36
Santorum: 30

TENNESSEE PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 58
How it works: 28 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If one candidate has more than 66% of the vote, he wins all 28. In the nine congressional districts, a candidate will win all three delegates if he wins 66% of the vote. If the winner and runner-up both have between 20% and 66% of the vote, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up gets one. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.



A more recent MTSU Poll show those percentages are holding.

Tennessee Predictions
Of the 28 at-large Santorum wins 18
Of the 28 at-large Romney wins 10

In the 9 Congressional Districts Santorum wins all 9 for 18
Romney come in second in all 9 for 9

State party leaders give 2 to Santorum, 1 to Romney

Totals
Romney: 20
Santorum: 38

VIRGINIA PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 49
How it works: 13 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving 15% of the vote. But because there are only two candidates on the ballot -- Romney and Paul -- it will likely be winner-take-all. Three delegates will also be awarded to the winner in each of the 11 congressional districts.

Prediction
Romney wins all 49

OKLAHOMA PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 43
How it works: 25 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate has more than 50%, in which case he wins all 25. In each of the state's five congressional districts, three delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates with 15% of the vote, unless, again, one had more than 50% of the vote in that district. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.



Oklahoma Predictions
Santorum wins 48% of 25 for 12
Romney wins 28% of 25 for 7
Gingrich wins 24% of 25 for 6

15 district Delegates
Santorum wins 7
Romney wins 4
Gingrich wins 4

Santorum wins 2 party leader votes, Romney 1

Totals
Romney: 12
Santorum: 21
Gingrich: 10

MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 41
How it works: 11 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote. Another three delegates will be awarded based on the vote in each of the state's nine congressional districts, again proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the vote. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.



Based on the rules it appears Santorum will be lucky to win even a handful.
Totals
Romney 38
Santorum 3

IDAHO CAUCUSES
Delegates at stake: 32
How it works: According to the Idaho Republican Party, a secret vote will be held at each county caucus, lasting several rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated until one reaches 50%. County results will then be tabulated statewide, with 29 delegates awarded proportionally based on the final tallies. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

Note: That description from the LA Times differs considerably from this
Idaho Caucus Explanation:
Voters will go to locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.

In each round the candidate with the fewest votes or anyone with less than 15% is out of the race. The voting ends at the county level when there is a final vote for two candidates or one has more than 50% of the vote for that county.

The delegates assigned for that county will then represent the winning candidate. Counties will report their winner to the state office in Boise. If one candidate has more than 50% of the vote for all of Idaho, they get all 32 delegates. Otherwise, the candidates split delegates they won in each county
Predictions
Assuming the LA Times is correct, the delegate totals will be split between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Otherwise Paul or Romney will win them all.

Scenario 1: Mitt Romney: 18 Ron Paul: 14
Scenario 2: Mitt Romney 32
Scenario 3: Ron Paul 32

NORTH DAKOTA CAUCUSES
Delegates at stake: 28
How it works: The caucuses will begin the process of allocating delegates to the national convention, but all 28 will remain unbound, meaning they can ultimately vote for whichever candidate they choose.

Predictions
This is somewhat of a crapshoot but no one is likely to dominate and Paul's organization in caucus states should help.

Romney: 8
Santorum: 7
Paul: 7
Gingrich: 6

ALASKA DISTRICT CONVENTIONS
Delegates at stake: 27
How it works: 24 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to candidates, based on the statewide vote, at individual district conventions. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

Predictions
This is another crapshoot but one that favors Santorum and Romney
Totals
Romney: 10
Santorum: 11
Paul: 3
Gingrich: 3

VERMONT PRIMARY
Delegates at stake: 17
How they're awarded: 11 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate received a majority. Another three delegates will be allocated to the overall statewide winner. The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

Rules are such that Romney will walk away with the lion's share
Predictions
Romney: 15
Santorum: 2

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Seth's Blog : Why lie?

Why lie?

"We've decided to hire someone with totally different skills than yours..." and then they hire someone just like you, but more expensive and not as good.

"We're not going to buy a car this month, my husband wants to wait..." and then you see them driving a new car from that other dealer, the one with the lousy reputation.

"I'm just not interested..." and then you see the new RFP, one you could have helped them write to get a more profitable and productive outcome.

People lie to salesmen all the time. We do it because salespeople have trained us to, and because we're afraid.

Prospects (people like us) lie in many situations, because when we announce that we''ve made the decision to hire someone else, or when we tell the pitching entrepreneur we don't like her business model, or when we clearly articulate why we're not going to do business, the salesperson responds by questioning the judgment of the prospect.

In exchange for telling the truth, the prospect is disrespected.

Of course we don't tell the truth--if we do, we're often bullied or berated or made to feel dumb.

Is it any surprise that it's easier to just avoid the conflict altogether? Of course, there's an alternative, but it requires confidence and patience on the part of the seller and marketer.

Someone who chooses not to buy from you isn't stupid. They're not unable to process ideas logically, nor are they unethical or manipulated by others. No, it's simpler than that:

Given what they know and what they believe, the prospect is making exactly the right decision.

We always make our decision based on what we know and believe. That's a tautology, based on the definition... a decision is the path you take based on what you know and believe, right?

The challenge, then, it seems to me, is to realize that perhaps the prospect knows something you don't, or, just as likely, doesn't believe what you believe. Your job as a marketer is to figure out what your prospect's biases and worldview and fears and beliefs are, and as a salesperson, your job is to help them know what you know.

If you keep questioning our judgment, we're going to keep lying to you.

 

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