miercuri, 21 martie 2012

Going Viral on Pinterest: Driving Big Traffic and Making Pinterest a Real Marketing Solution

Going Viral on Pinterest: Driving Big Traffic and Making Pinterest a Real Marketing Solution


Going Viral on Pinterest: Driving Big Traffic and Making Pinterest a Real Marketing Solution

Posted: 20 Mar 2012 02:04 PM PDT

Posted by Colby Almond

When I was first introduced to Digg in 2007 I didn’t leave the computer until I absorbed every piece of information that Kevin Rose made available to me. When I switched over to Reddit in 2008, I found the content even more enthralling and gave out upvotes until my fingers bled on nearly ever subreddit. A little over two months ago my girlfriend, Alaina was on her laptop on the couch totally enchanted by some type of site I had never seen before. However, I knew the passion and attention she was giving the site was all too familiar. There she was pinning and repinning content onto her boards like it was her job. As a marketer of nearly seven years, I absolutely knew this “Pinterest” thing was going to be huge. I never would have expected, however, that it would change the world of viral marketing so quickly.

It was during that month of January that Pinterest exploded from a casual social network to an absolute powerhouse of over 10 million users. By this point, it was driving more referral traffic than Google+, Youtube, and LinkedIn. For a social network remaining under the radar for the marketing industry, these are numbers that can’t be ignored.

The Power behind Pinterest

The best way to understand the power behind Pinterest is to compare it to the last ruler of viral traffic: The Front Page of Digg. We all remember the stunning days of 2007-2008 when reaching the front page of Digg was considered a milestone in your career. When developing content specifically for Digg was fun and actually reaching the front page was cause for celebration . . . and panic as your servers soon overloaded with traffic and eventually crashed. Those were fun times, indeed, and I have missed them ever since Digg’s mishap that resulted in a mass migration to other social networks.

I still remember my first Digg front page in 2008; I even printed it out and thought about framing it at that point in my career. Below is the actual data from my first three “Front Pagers” and what I thought would be the best traffic that I could ever drive to a website in a 24 hour time-frame.

Digg Front Page

In 2008 on a good day the front page of Digg could drive around 30-50 thousand visitors in a 24 hour time span. After the content was off the front page, it often disappeared into oblivion to never be seen again. That was the life of viral marketing back then and a lot of people have said since Digg’s demise that it would never be possible to reach those levels again.

However, I’m here to tell you that in the past two months I have not only reached those levels again, I have completely obliterated the old “Digg Effect”.

Below are the analytics from a single piece of content created for my personal site nearly over two weeks ago geared specifically towards Pinterest. As you can see, there’s a HUGE difference between the two.

Pinterest Marketing

Not only did this one piece of content nearly triple the traffic that was produced by the old Digg, but the average time spent on site is nearly 2 minutes and 43 seconds. This is exponentially better than the 12-13 seconds regular content is awarded from going viral on other social networks. The best part about going viral on Pinterest, however, is that once it hits its peak the traffic simply doesn’t stop. With the site’s growth in unique users and ability to “repin” and share, viral content will continue to bring in thousands of daily visitors for up to 3-4 weeks.

Pinterst Marketing

So how did I go about getting 46 thousand repins from one piece of content on my personal site? It’s all about the content, baby.

Understanding the Pinterest Community

Pinterest Maerkting Colby AlmondWhen I started researching how to better understand the Pinterest community and its users I was met with some criticism. Being told “I’m revoking your man-card” or “you’re wasting your time” were the most frequent. However, as I soon began seeing results my peers began to ask me if I was casting some type of voodoo magic over the Pinterest users. I have played D&D before and I do have a set of dice, however, I am no magic user when it comes to Pinterest.It's not about knowing what women want, it's about knowing what the community wants.

The real secret to understanding the Pinterest community is this: IT’S JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER SOCIAL NETWORK. Just like Digg, Reddit, Facebook, and Twitter . . . pictures of cute animals and memes run rampant. While there are some exceptions to this rule, there isn’t a day that goes by that I don’t see something from Reddit hit the popular page of Pinterest. Yes it’s true that throwing up a picture of Ryan Reynolds shirtless or of Ryan Gosling “Hey Girl-ing” a kitten will probably get you thousands of repins, it will never result in any traffic through to your site. The most important thing to remember is that the users of Pinterest are looking to share and repin creative ideas and advice.

There are thousands of infographics being submitted to Pinterest on a daily basis. However, I can count on my hand how many infographics I’ve ever seen make it to the popular page of Pinterest. When it comes to going viral, making the popular page is an absolute necessity in the effectiveness of your content. While infographics might work on every other social network, they just aren’t what the Pinterest users are looking to share. The whole point of infographics is to visually interpret data in a way that’s appealing to the users. While information and knowledge is extremely convenient, it just doesn’t fit in well with the ideals of Pinterest. Every few years there is a change in the trends associated with the design of content for social sites. While infographics have been a hot item for years, they just aren't working at the level I've seen with other content on Pinterest.

That’s why the team at 97th Floor and I are proud to share with you what we believe is the first of a new type of visual content: Instructographics.

Instructographics for Pinterest:

Pinterest Marketing Colby Almond

Since the term of “instructographics” has never been used before, I guess I should provide a formal definition. Instructographics are a vertical representation of creative ideas or steps that guides the user to a specific deliverable. It doesn’t matter if it’s a recipe, hairstyle, do-it-yourself project . . . instructographics work on nearly any level. Why do these graphics work better than infographics on Pinterest? It’s simply because the instructographic walks the user through a series of instructions that will result in something useful in real life.

Pinterest is all about the sharing of ideas and the instructographic is the perfect type of content for doing such.

So how does one go about constructing an instructographic? At 97th Floor we use the following methods when setting up one of our many Pinterest marketing campaigns:

Step 1: Find an Idea

For this step it’s pretty simple, just find an idea of a cool concept or creation that you think would go over well in the Pinterest community. The possibilities are endless; however, make sure the idea is something that you’ve never seen before.

Do you have an idea that is just so brilliant that it’s never been seen before? Good, that’s what you’ll need. After you’ve determined exactly what you want to share with the community, get your team together and start brainstorming the processes you’ll need to take to get to a final product. While you could probably make a monster instructographic outlining every single detail, I believe in K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple, Stupid).

Step 2: Begin the Design

After you’ve determined exactly what content your instructographic will contain, begin designing a basic step by step vertical guide. It is important to remember to keep the title of your instructographic as visible as possible as it will be the first thing viewed by the users of Pinterest.

Step 3: Upload to your Client Site

Unlike other social networks that give major notice to the URL that the image is uploaded on, Pinterest gives very little attention to this element. As long as the content is remotely similar to the site and looks like it fits it will be just find with Pinterest.

Step 4: Size it Correctly

What’s the difference between 40 visitors to your site from an instructographic and 40,000? The size of your content. As long as your content is longer than 2,500 pixels it will be unreadable by the Pinterest users. Anything smaller and Pinterest will magnify the image so that it's readable on the site (meaning there's no reason to click through to your page). This forces them to click on your submission, through to your page to view the content. If it’s something that’s worth reading and creative, this is a necessity. If it’s longer than 5,000 pixels, then create a simple 300x300 pixel button outlining your graphic. The reason for this is because the “like” and “repin” buttons are at the top of the submission. If they have to scroll too far town to view the entire piece, chances are they aren’t going to scroll up to click on those buttons. For me the ideal image is 600x3000 pixels.

Step 5: Submit and Pin!

When your instructographic is ready to be shared, there are several important elements that you should keep in mind before submitting to Pinterest.

If you're still having troubles understanding the intricacies of the instructographic below is one 97th Floor recently designed for a client which received 14,000+ repins:

The Pinterest Popularity Algorithm

Like every other social network in the realm of the internets, there is a science behind going popular on Pinterest. This is no way considered gaming the Pinterest site, however, it will give your content the best chance possible to make it to the popular board.

Once every piece of content is submitted it is placed onto the top of the specific category pages. Getting to the top of these pages is essential to going viral on Pinterest. Consider these category pages your springboard to the popular page. You do not need an established or aged account to get to the top, however, there are some elements that will block your attempts. Every piece of content is placed onto the top of the category pages barring it doesn’t break any of the following guidelines:

  • You’ve submitted within the past hour
    • It seems that in an effort to combat spam, Pinterest has limited every user account to ONE piece of content on the category pages per hour. We tell all our clients to hold off on the pinning up to three hours before we’re ready for a content push.
  • You’ve hosted your content on Imgur
    • I have no idea why Pinterest has done so, but any piece of content hosted on Imgur will not make it to the top of the category pages. I’m guessing this is a maneuver to differentiate themselves from Reddit, however, no one has explained the reasoning quite yet. Just beware if you plan on rehosting content on your site.

Timing the Submission

As with every social network, there is a specific time that you can submit that will give you the best chance of reaching the front or popular pages. Pinterest is no different as their users tend to be more active during different points of the day. The goal as a content creator is to get your content onto the site when it is least competitive yet most effective. With Pinterest this time tends to be between 5-7AM and 5-7PM EST. The reason for this is because the majority of users are either waking up or getting off work to check their Pinterest boards. Since this is the case, you want to submit your content at least one hour beforehand to ensure that it will be visible to the most people at the right time.

Pinterest Marketing Colby Almond

Monitoring Your Content

After your content has been submitted to Pinterest and gone viral, it is important that you check the popular boards routinely to see if your content has been rehosted on any different sites or blogs. As the creators of the content you are entitled to every visitor that it receives. Unfortunately sites such as 9Gag have included the “Pin It” button allowing the users to direct 100% of the traffic to their site. I have found that if you ask the user that pinned your content from a site like this to nicely to change the URL, they will abide. While it might seem tedious and time consuming, this is essentially thousands of visitors that your client will be missing out on if you do not follow through.

Conclusion

Pinterest is here to stay and if it’s not in your marketing plans yet, it very well should be. I expect Pinterest to double in size and traffic potential in the coming months. It’s important to remember that while the majority of Pinterest users are women, more men are starting to migrate over due to its easy usability and creative content. Don’t be one of those companies kicking themselves in a few months because you didn’t get in on the trend. They said Facebook would never take over Myspace and Twitter would be useless to social marketing. Experts are saying the same thing about Pinterest right now. I’m here to tell you they’re wrong.


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Announcing #MozCon 2012: Our Best Yet!

Posted: 20 Mar 2012 04:12 AM PDT

Posted by Erica McGillivray

It's MozCon time! At SEOmoz, we're proud to announce that tickets for this year's MozCon are on sale now, and our planning is going full-steam ahead. You'll want to put this event on your calendar now.
 
Join us for a three day deep-dive into advanced search engine optimization, social media, conversion rate optimization, content marketing, analytics, and more.  
 

MozCon 2012 July 25th - July 27th, 2012 at the Westin in Seattle

$899 $699 PRO Members
$1,499 $1,299 Non-PRO
Register for MozCon Today!
 

Amazing Content from Industry Leaders

Want to learn something that will blow your mind with awesome? MozCon is the place for you. 
"MozCon is like Disneyland for SEOs, jampacked with super-geeky SEO Magic Tricks, and great chances to meet and say hello to others in the search industry." -- Pete Campbell
Richard Baxter at MozCon 2011
 

Actionable Tips and Deep Insights

"MozCon is the best online marketing conference I have ever attended. The content is well-rounded and advanced." -- Bekka Palmer, Thunder SEO
Wil Reynolds and the audience at MozCon 2011
 
We're working hard with our speakers to craft incredible talks just for you. Some of the topics we've been bouncing around, include:
  • SEO and Google+
  • Community as an Inbound Marketing Channel
  • Cutting Edge Web Spam Research
  • New Forms of Conversion Rate Optimization
  • Link Analysis through APIs
  • SEO Project Management
Roger Mozbot's busy making the schedule and checking it twice. We'll have our full agenda up soon, and you'll find it here.
 

Three Days and One Amazing Experience

"MozCon 2011 in Seattle was excellent! The new knowledge was plentiful, the planning was primo, and the food was incredible – tons of vegetarian options and lots of snack times! Frequent breaks were necessary to refresh our brains every few hours so we could cram more giant piles of information in." -- Heather Physioc
Besides our programming, MozCon 2012 will give you the chance to meet face-to-face all the Mozzers you've been chatting with in the comments on this blog, in the answers on q&a, by email, customer service questions, or over Twitter. 
 
Grab an engineer and get a hint at a new SEOmoz product. Rickroll Jen in person, or ask Shelly about why someone drew her riding a unicorn on a whiteboard. 
 
And don't forget to hug Roger!
 
Roger makes friends!Roger and Rand high-five
Roger loves HillariRoger smiles
Roger's only set to Hugs
 
For those of you wondering about the food, have no fear! We'll provide you with breakfast and lunch all three days, appetizers/light meal Wednesday night, and food and drinks at our Thursday night party. Plus, plenty of snackage. You won't go hungry or have to fret about a meal budget.

Celebrate, Moz-Style

After a day of digesting knowledge, put down your laptop and enjoy being in the fabulous city of Seattle and getting to know those who share your passion for organic marketing. We'll be hosting a casual meet-up Wednesday night and a full-on party at the Garage Thursday night. Make some new friends and show off your bowling or pool skills.
 
Casey and Chris at MozCon 2011
 

Relax at the Westin Hotel in Downtown Seattle

MozCon goers get a discount for the Westin Hotel. And wow, do I have some awesome news for you, the Westin did a big remodel this past winter just for us! (Kidding about that last part.) All their rooms have been refreshed and upgraded. Swanky.
 
 
Plus, if you're coming from the airport, the Westin is an easy-peasy 30 minute LinkLight Rail ride away. Learn more and ditch that rental car.
 
What's also amazing is that you're within walking distance of Seattle's legendary Pike Place Market, Elliot Bay Waterfront, and... the Mozplex!
"I've been passionately involved in SEO/SEM for nearly a decade, and I can honestly say that MozCon was the most educational 3 days that I've ever experienced in that amount of time. There was a wealth of tangible information and insight that I'm going to be able to utilize in all aspects of SEO. MozCon was simply inspiring." -- Greg Bebezas, OpenText Corporation

Don't Delay as the Early Bird Gets the Best Priced Worm

We listened to your feedback. This year, we're selling early bird priced tickets for 30 days. (Until Wednesday, April 20th at 11:59pm PDT.) 
 
Our early bird pricing will be the largest discount on any ticket to MozCon 2012. If you're looking to save a dime or $200, in this case, purchase your ticket now.
 
Register for MozCon Today!
 
But you don't have to take my word for it...
 
Would your recommend MozCon? Overwhelmingly, YES.
"I walked into MozCon a great SEO and walked out a thought leader." -- Mike King, iPullRank

Photos by Rudy Lopez


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2.5 Million Young Adults

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
 

2.5 Million Young Adults

Under the Affordable Care Act, parents can now add or keep their children on their health insurance plans until they turn 26 years old. Since that part of President Obama’s health reform law went into effect in September 2010, more that 2.5 million young adults have gained coverage.

Find out why the health care law matters for young adults.

By the Numbers 2.5 Million

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

White House Tweetup: United Kingdom Arrival Ceremony Engages Online and In-Person
Over 140 "tweeps" from across the country welcomed Prime Minister David Cameron, and then met with Administration officials to talk about opening the government through online engagement.

President Obama meets with Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny
The leaders discuss a range of issues, including trade and the global economy.

Facilitating Internet Freedom in Iran
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control today issued guidance and licensing information to further support the free flow of information to citizens of Iran – a freedom the Iranian regime has consistently denied to its people.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

9:25 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

9:55 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Las Vegas, Nevada 

2:40 PM: The President arrives Las Vegas, Nevada

4:10 PM: The President tours Copper Mountain Solar 1 Facility

4:20 PM: The President delivers remarks at Copper Mountain Solar 1 Facility on his Administration’s focus on diversifying our energy portfolio WhiteHouse.gov/live

5:50 PM: The President departs Las Vegas, Nevada en route Roswell, New Mexico

7:00 PM: The Vice President delivers remarks at the Bipartisan Policy Center WhiteHouse.gov/live

7:20 PM: The President arrives Roswell, New Mexico 

8:15 PM: The President delivers remarks on the Administration’s commitment to expanding domestic oil and gas production WhiteHouse.gov/live

9:35 PM: The President departs Roswell, New Mexico en route Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

10:50 PM: The President arrives Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : Getting confused about causation and correlation

Getting confused about causation and correlation

Have you noticed that in most cities, every time there are lots of umbrellas, it's raining?

From this analysis, the obvious way to make it rain is to be sure that everyone has an umbrella, preferably a black one, since that seems to be the kind that's most visible during big storms.

The trappings of successful marketing (or successful anything for that matter) aren't always the causes. Sometimes they are the caused. Just because Apple did something doesn't mean that it was responsible for Apple's success. It may be that they were successful despite some of the things they did, not because of them.

 

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marți, 20 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Mitt Romney Proposes $8 Trillion Welfare Program for Defense Contractors; Prepare for Two Wars if Romney Wins

Posted: 20 Mar 2012 10:57 PM PDT

I sit back in amazement and watch Republicans self-destruct with ridiculous proposal after ridiculous proposal.

Let's ponder two plans, neither of which is going anywhere, and one of them may very well cost Mitt Romney the election should he win the nomination.

Ryan Plan Revives Deficit Duel

The Wall Street Journal reports Ryan Plan Revives Deficit Duel
Rep. Paul Ryan's budget instantly became the centerpiece of an election-year debate over the size of government on Tuesday, thrusting back into the spotlight a topic—the deficit—that has been largely overlooked by the presidential candidates.

Mr. Ryan (R., Wis.), who heads the House Budget Committee, said his plan would put the U.S. on a sound economic path by spending $5.3 trillion less than Mr. Obama recommends over 10 years, resulting in a budget deficit that would be $3.3 trillion narrower.
Let's pause right there for a second. The deficit is about $1.4 trillion. If the US lapses back into a recession at any time, (something I think is highly likely) it will worsen. Cutting $5.3 trillion over 10 years, is $530 billion a year, still leaving deficit spending at $900 billion a year, not counting the odds of a recession.

Let's continue with a few more snips ...
Congressional budgets by nature lack specifics—those are provided in spending bills that come later—and this one was no different. Still, Mr. Ryan made some things clear. Most dramatically, he proposed repealing Mr. Obama's health law.

The plan also would cut the top tax rates for corporations and individuals to 25% from 35%, creating just two brackets for individuals, 10% and 25%.

Mr. Ryan angered Democrats, and privately frustrated some Republicans, by proposing a $1.028 trillion cap on discretionary spending for next year, a figure that excludes formula-based programs such as Social Security and Medicare. The two parties, after weeks of negotiation, had agreed on a level of $1.047 trillion in a deal in August.

Mr. Ryan said he was taking into account another section of that deal, which requires across-the-board cuts of $97 billion beginning in January, $55 billion of that in defense. Party leaders are planning to negotiate a way to restructure those cuts, probably after the election. Mr. Ryan's plan instead directs six House committees to come up with cuts by May that total a similar amount.
Ryan Reneges on Defense Cuts

Notice that Ryan cannot even stand for a measly $55 billion cut in defense spending instead wanting to cut entitlements. Yes, entitlements should be cut, but so should defense spending.


This proposal is doomed from the get-go. It is both pointless, and weak. All Ryan has proven is that he is a deficit-cutting wimp.

Ron Paul alone wants to balance the budget. 

Searching for Sings of Intelligent Thought

The only possible conclusions for Ryan's proposals are: He is brain-dead. He does not want a deal for political reasons.

Although it's frequently hard to see signs of intelligent life from either party in Congress, I will give Ryan the benefit of the doubt, suggesting that he purposely wants to antagonize Democrats for political reasons.

No Deal Coming

A USA Today Editorial states GOP budget hurts prospects for deficit deal.
If anything is obvious from the past several years of budget wrangling, it's that meaningful progress on the federal deficit will require a grand, bipartisan deal of the kind that President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner were negotiating last summer before their talks collapsed.

Democrats will have to give ground on the entitlement programs that are swallowing the federal budget. Republicans will have to compromise on tax revenue.

If that is too tall an order during a presidential election year, the two parties should at least avoid fanning flames that will make future deals harder to achieve.

What's most galling, however, is that the plan would violate the terms of the stopgap budget deal worked out last summer. It would breach the cap on defense spending and take money from other areas. It is hard to imagine a better way to undermine prospects for a broad long-term deficit deal than for one side to go back on its word.

As for Democrats, they need to get their heads out of the sand. The argument that they can simply "protect" Medicare against marauding Republicans does not square with reality. While prudent tax hikes can buy some time, and cuts in other spending might be in order, the biggest threats to the nation's solvency by far are health care and retirement entitlements.

The Democrats' response to Ryan's latest plan was both predictable and troubling. Even before the plan was out, they launched a Medi-scare campaign of letter-writing and robocalls targeting 41 vulnerable Republican incumbents.

But, in an era in which both parties try to pawn off partisanship as patriotism, why let the facts get in the way of a good attack ad? Perhaps after this year's election, when big spending cuts and tax hikes are slated to take effect, the two sides will seriously address the long-term fiscal problems the nation faces. After all, notwithstanding the fantasies of party leaders, a sweeping deficit reduction package enacted on a party-line basis is not going to happen.
Mitt Romney Proposes $8 Trillion Welfare Program for Defense Contractors

As noted above, Ryan's proposal is seriously misguided at best. Unfortunately, Romney's plan is far worse.

Please consider A Lesson in Republican Math: Throwing Money at the Pentagon
If you've been fretting about faltering math education and falling test scores here in the United States, you should be worried based on this campaign season of Republican math. When it comes to the American military, the leading Republican presidential candidates evidently only learned to add and multiply, never subtract or divide.

Despite current Pentagon budgets that have hovered at the highest levels since World War II and 13 years of steady growth, the administration's latest plans would only reduce spending at the Department of Defense by 1.6% in inflation-adjusted dollars over the next five years.

Still, compared to his main Republican opponents, Obama is a T. rex of budget slashers.

After all, despite their stated commitment to reducing the deficit (while cutting taxes on the rich yet more), the Republican contenders are intent on raising Pentagon spending dramatically. Mitt Romney has staked out the "high ground" in the latest round of Republican math with a proposal to set Pentagon spending at 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That would, in fact add up to an astonishing $8.3 trillion dollars over the next decade, one-third more than current, already bloated Pentagon plans.

Nathan Hodge of the Wall Street Journal engaged in polite understatement when he described the Romney plan as "the most optimistic forecast U.S. defense manufacturers have heard in months."

In fact, Romney's proposal implies that the Pentagon is essentially an entitlement program that should receive a set share of our total economic resources regardless of what's happening here at home or elsewhere on the planet. In Romney World, the Pentagon's only role would be to engorge itself. If the GDP were to drop, it's unlikely that, as president, he would reduce Pentagon spending accordingly.

Rick Santorum has spent far less time describing his military spending plans, but a remark at a Republican presidential debate in Arizona suggests that he is at least on the same page with Romney.

Mitt Romney at Sea

But let's stick with the Republican frontrunner (or stumbler). What exactly would Romney spend all this money on?

For starters, he's a humongous fan of building big ships, generally the most expensive items in the Pentagon budget. He has pledged to up Navy ship purchases from 9 to 15 per year, a rise of 50%.

Romney is also a major supporter of missile defense — and not just the current $9-$10 billion a year enterprise being funded by the Obama administration, primarily designed to blunt an attack by long-range North Korean missiles that don't exist. Romney wants a "full, multi-layered" system.

That sounds suspiciously like the Ronald Reagan-style fantasy of an "impermeable shield" over the United States against massive nuclear attack that was abandoned in the late 1980s because of its staggering expense and essential impracticality.

If the development of Romney's high-priced version of a missile shield were again on the American agenda, it would be a godsend for big weapons-makers like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon, but would add nothing to the defense of this country. In fact, it stands a reasonable chance of making things worse. Given the overkill represented by the thousands of nuclear warheads in the American arsenal, the prospect of a nuclear missile attack on the United States is essentially nil.

Ensuring a Cost-Overrun Presidency

If you were hoping that, with an eye to fighting yet more disastrous wars in the Greater Middle East like the $3 trillion fiasco in Iraq, the U.S. would raise ever larger armies, then Mitt's your man.
Prepare for Two Wars if Romney Wins

Should Mitt Romney win election this November, prepare for two wars.

  1. War with Iran
  2. Trade War with China

Both would be stupid and both will cost trillions of dollars.

Actually, the sane thing to do is prepare for two wars regardless of who wins. The odds may be lower under Obama, but that is the best one can say.

Republican Self-Destruction

The self-destruction of Republicans is very painful to watch because I am not a Democrat and do not like President Obama in the least.

Unfortunately, some Republican proposals are so out of whack with what needs to happen that independents are highly likely to make a lesser-of-two-evils choice of Obama over whoever the Republican nominee is.

Given the strong likelihood Republicans manage to hold the House, a divided Congress and a divided executive-legislative split might easily be the best we can hope for.

I am writing in Ron Paul. The chips will fall, how they fall.

Hopefully Republicans get their act together in 2016 because this was a pathetic performance.

 Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Saudi Arabia Aims to Deliver "Wall of Oil" to US; Oil Minister Says "High Oil Prices Unjustified" ; Highest March Price in History; Republicans Say Obama Not Doing Enough

Posted: 20 Mar 2012 11:47 AM PDT

Wall of Supertankers Heads For US

Brent crude at $125, US Crude at $110, and soaring gasoline prices everywhere have caused quite a stir. See Highest Price Ever of Gasoline in March; State-by-State Gas Price and Gas Tax Comparison for a discussion.

In response to high prices, Saudi Arabia has a plan to send a wall of supertankers to the U.S. to knock down prices and Republicans have attacked President Obama for not doing enough.

Please consider The price that launched a wall of ships
In a matter of days, Saudi Arabia has hired the largest number of super-tankers in years. When the tankers load their cargo in Ras Tanura, the world's largest oil terminal, in the next couple of weeks and start a 40-day voyage towards the US Gulf coast, they will deliver a wall of oil with a single aim: to bring prices down.

"This is the first time in several years for [Saudi Arabia] to hit the market with such volume – and in such a short time frame," says Omar Nokta, a shipping expert at specialist investment bank Dalham Rose & Co.

Last week, Vela, the shipping arm of Saudi Aramco, hired over a few days 11 so-called very large crude oil carriers, each capable of shipping 2m barrels, to deliver to US-based refiners. "In 2011, Vela fixed one VLCC to the US every other month," Mr Nokta says.

The hiring spree was the most public move by the kingdom in a series of efforts aimed at bringing down oil prices from $125 a barrel towards $100. "They want to bring prices down. That is it," says a former Western oil official.
Saudi Oil Minister Says "High Oil Prices Unjustified"

Please consider Naimi calls high oil prices 'unjustified'
Saudi Arabia's powerful oil minister Ali Naimi sought to cool overheating oil markets on Tuesday, saying high oil prices were "unjustified" and that the kingdom could boost its output by as much as 25 per cent if necessary.

Supply was much more robust than it had been in 2008 when crude rose to $147 a barrel, he said.

As the west's nuclear stand-off with Iran escalates, oil prices have rallied this month to a post-2008 peak of $128 a barrel with markets bracing for European Union sanctions on Iranian crude that could knock out a chunk of global supply. Jitters have been fuelled by supply outages in Syria, Yemen and South Sudan.
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Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said on Tuesday that rising energy prices had now overtaken Europe's sovereign debt crisis as the biggest worry for the global economy. Speaking in New Delhi, she said that while the world financial system had strengthened over the past three months, volatile oil prices would have "serious consequences".

But Mr Naimi insisted that supply was "much more firm today than in 2008", the time of the last big oil increase. Saudi Arabia had 2.5m b/d of additional production capacity, which it could bring online if necessary.

Saudi Arabia is likely to be producing about 9.9m b/d of oil in April and exporting roughly 7.5m-8m b/d of that, he said. Asked if the kingdom could ease prices by exporting more oil, he said customers were not asking for additional crude. "We are ready and willing to put more oil on the market, but you need a buyer," he said.
Republicans Say Obama Not Doing Enough

MarketWatch reports Republicans launch new attacks on Obama, Chu over gas prices
Republicans launched fresh attacks on the Obama administration on Tuesday over the soaring price of gasoline, ripping the White House in an election-year bid for the upper hand with consumers.

Testifying before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Energy Secretary Steven Chu was peppered with questions about what the administration has done to bring down gasoline prices, which are now averaging $3.85 a gallon versus $3.55 a gallon a year ago.

Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have called for Chu to be fired as gasoline prices climb. On Tuesday, Gingrich released an ad highlighting Chu's September 2008 statement (retracted since he became head of the Energy Department) that he'd like to see gasoline prices at similar levels to Europe's and his support for the Chevrolet Volt.

Gingrich — who competes against Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul on Tuesday in the Illinois Republican primary — has touted a plan to bring gasoline prices down to $2.50 a gallon if elected president. The White House has criticized that plan as unrealistic.

Obama has said that there's little that can be done from Washington in the short term to lower gasoline prices and that there's no "silver bullet" to bring them down in a global market.

Warmongering Fools

Obama is essentially correct when he says "no silver bullet" on energy prices. Moreover, Gingrich is a fool if he really believes he can bring prices down that low without other devastating consequences such as a massive recession and 13% unemployment.

Finally, the leading Republican warmongers are angling for war with Iran, something sure to send oil prices to new highs should it happen. With $trillion deficits as far as the eye can see, the last thing the US needs to do is start another idiotic war, one likely to cause a supply shock sending gasoline prices over $5 if not much higher.

If you want a good reason for high gas prices, you can blame six things

  1. Fed policies - The Fed and its supporters in both political parties are to blame
  2. Fractional Reserve Lending - The Fed is to blame
  3. US Policy in the Mideast - Republicans other than Ron Paul will make matters worse
  4. Deficit spending - both political parties are to blame
  5. Warmongering - both political parties are to blame
  6. Peak Oil

Drill Baby Drill is an inane response to those fundamental problems.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Highest Price Ever of Gasoline in March; State-by-State Gas Price and Gas Tax Comparison

Posted: 20 Mar 2012 10:28 AM PDT

Highest Gas Price Recorded in March

An ABC consumer report shows Highest Gas Price Recorded in March
The average price of a gallon of regular is now $3.87, the highest recorded price in March. The average price is up nearly 4 cents from a week ago, and over 30 cents from a year ago, according to the Department of Energy, as more drivers face gas prices of $4 a gallon or more across the country.

Last week, the average gas price was $3.83 a gallon, the previous record according to data going back to 1990.

The West Coast was once again the most expensive region with an average gas price of $4.23, up almost 2 cents from last week, with an increase of over 37 cents from a year ago.

The least expensive was the Rocky Mountain region with $3.62 a gallon. That region had the highest increase from last week, 14 cents, while the average price there climbed almost 24 cents from a year ago.

State-by-State Gas Price Comparison

The AAA Fuel Gage Report by the American Automobile Association tracks gasoline national averages including state-by state comparisons.



Site is updated daily. Map above shows prices as of March 20, 2012.

Gasoline Taxes State-by-State



Diesel Fuel Taxes State-by-State



The above maps by the American Petroleum Institute.

In what should be no surprise, the highest gas price states are in general the states with the highest gasoline taxes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


IMF and ECB Bailouts "Created" Huge Bondholder Losses; More Haircuts Coming Up

Posted: 20 Mar 2012 12:59 AM PDT

It's hard to have too much sympathy for those buying Greek bonds. Then again, one should always want a fair market, not a rigged one in which certain players can never lose.

Please consider the question How much did the IMF, ECB and EU bailouts harm Greek bondholders?
The Greek CDS auction results are in, and the implied recovery rate on the Greek bond swap is 21.5 percent – so a 78.5 percent loss. What isn't widely appreciated is that most of this loss was created by the bailouts. That is of course true in the sense that the Greek bailouts have delayed the process of adjustment in Greece, so it continued on an unsustainable path for longer meaning its eventual defaults are larger.

And no one thinks the new situation is really sustainable – new Greek bonds are pricing in of order a 75 per cent further write-down. But that's not what I'm referring to here. I mean something much simpler: because Greece was bailed out with loans from the IMF, ECB and EU that have been treated as senior to the bonds of the private sector (i.e. any losses were to be experienced first by the private sector – all loans to the IMF, ECB and EU were to be repaid with a higher priority than loans to the private sector), that meant that the losses to those Greek private sector bondholders that ended up taking losses were much greater.

The bailouts mean that those bondholders that eventually take losses take a 75 per cent loss rather than a 33 per cent loss – they are badly harmed by the bailout process. Anyone with bonds in another eurozone state in receipt of bailouts had better beware. Portugal, anyone?
More Haircuts Coming Up

The market is already predicting another 75% collapse in Greek bonds. Ultimately any fools that threw money at Greece (without CDS protection) will lose every cent, except of course the idiots who insisted on the bailouts in the first place: the ECB and IMF.

Portugal is now in the batter's box and Spain is on deck. Both will fail, just as Greece did. The only thing that remains to be seen is how much money the ECB throws at those problems before both blow up in the ECB's face.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List