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luni, 9 aprilie 2012

Watch Live: Easter Egg Roll

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, April 9, 2012

Watch Live: Easter Egg Roll

Today, the First Family is hosting the 134th annual White House Easter Egg Roll. Throughout the day, more than 30,000 people will gather on the South Lawn for games, snacks, music and, of course, the Egg Roll.

Catch all the fun as it happens on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host a Passover Seder Dinner for family, staff and friends, in the Old Family Dining Room of the White House, April 6, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Watch a Passover message from President Obama

Seth's Blog : Is everyone entitled to their opinion?

Is everyone entitled to their opinion?

Perhaps, but that doesn't mean we need to pay the slightest bit of attention.

There are two things that disqualify someone from being listened to:

1. Lack of Standing. If you are not a customer, a stakeholder or someone with significant leverage in spreading the word, we will ignore you. And we should.

When you walk up to an artist and tell her you don't like her painting style, you should probably be ignored. If you've never purchased expensive original art, don't own a gallery and don't write an influential column in ArtNews, then by all means, you must be ignored.

If you're working in Accounts Payable and you hate the company's new logo, the people who created it should and must ignore your opinion. It just doesn't matter to anyone but you.

I'm being deliberately harsh here for a reason. If we're going to do great work, it means that some people aren't going to like it. And if the people who don't like it don't have an impact on what happens to the work after it's complete, the only recourse of someone doing great work is to ignore their opinion.

2. No Credibility. An opinion needs to be based on experience and expertise. I know you don't like cilantro, but whether or not you like it is not extensible to the population at large. On the other hand, if you have a track record of matching the taste sensibility of my target market, then I very much want to hear what you think.

People with a history of bad judgment, people who are quick to jump to conclusions or believe in unicorns or who have limited experience in the market--these people are entitled to opinions, but it's not clear that the creator of the work needs to hear them. They've disqualified themselves because the method they use for forming opinions about how the market will respond is suspect. The scientific method works, and if you're willing to suspend it at will and just go with your angry gut, we don't need to hear from you.

If these two standards sound like precisely the opposite of what gets you on talk radio or active in anonymous chat rooms, you're right. Running your business or your campaign or your non-profit or your sports team based on what you hear on talk radio is nuts.

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duminică, 8 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Gas Price Psychology Under Bush vs. Gas Price Psychology Under Obama; Three Reasons Gas Prices are High; Caroline Baum on "Obama the Omniscient"

Posted: 08 Apr 2012 08:35 PM PDT

The blatant hypocrisy and arrogance of president Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary Clinton in the following video is simple stunning.

Link if video does not play: Hypocrisy Over Oil

Caroline Baum on "Obama the Omniscient"

Inquiring minds are reading Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum's article President Scapegoat Can't Stop Picking on Big Oil

Barack Obama isn't the first U.S. president to conjure up scapegoats to serve his political ends. The Roosevelts, both Teddy and Franklin, were masters at the game. TR decided the trusts were an enemy of the people and busted the likes of Standard Oil and Northern Securities, which controlled the railroads in the northwest. FDR demonized just about anyone who had money.

Harry Truman seized the steel companies to avert a nationwide strike, noting that "the steel industry has never been so profitable as it is today." When U.S. Steel and other large steel producers raised prices, John F. Kennedy chided them for pursuing "private power and profit" at the expense of 185 million Americans.

Sound familiar? Substitute Obama for Truman, and oil for steel, and the tactics are quite similar.

Obama has elevated scapegoating to a new level. He has his usual suspects -- the "millionaires and billionaires" who serve as foils at campaign events -- as well as temporary targets that come and go as the situation warrants.

Listen to Give 'em Hell Harry in 1952: "Steel industry profits are now running at the rate of about $2.5 billion a year. The steel companies are now making a profit of about $19.50 on every ton of steel they produce. They don't need this," Truman said of a $3-a-ton price increase.

I agree with Obama that oil companies don't "need" subsidies, some of which have been in place since 1916. But the reason isn't their profitability. It's that preferential treatment creates its own incentives, distortions and economic inefficiencies.

Does Obama understand that one reason profits are so big is that the companies are big? Other better measures, such as profit margins (net income divided by sales), show energy producers underperforming other kinds of companies. For example, the average profit margin for the six largest U.S. integrated oil and gas companies was about 11 percent last year, compared with almost 14 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies.

There are lots of other industries and special-interest groups that don't "need" subsidies and/or tax breaks. But they have them because of mutual back-scratching by members of Congress, who are much better at catering to their corporate clients than to their constituents.

I would venture to say that if a business isn't viable on its own, it isn't viable.

Obama the Omniscient

"Instead of taxpayer giveaways to an industry that's never been more profitable, we should be using that money to double- down on investments in clean energy technologies that have never been more promising -- investments in wind power and solar power and biofuels; investments in fuel-efficient cars and trucks, and energy-efficient homes and buildings," Obama said. "That's the future."

He knows this.

Singling out oil and gas companies for punishment may solidify his populist credentials, but Obama knows that repealing $4 billion of deductions is a drop in the bucket compared with an annual $1 trillion of tax breaks and loopholes in the federal budget.

Besides, with Obama it's never really about the cost savings. If it comes down to a choice between good economics and sound policy on the one hand and "fairness" -- fairness as defined by Obama -- on the other, we know which one our president will choose.

Singling out specific industries as scapegoats for his political purposes doesn't strike me as particularly fair. I guess it depends on what the meaning of fairness is.

Why Are Oil Prices High?

President Obama should look in a mirror and blame his inept Mideast policy. Of course President Bush could do the same. Mitt Romney promises to be worse than either of them.
The second reason gas prices are high is inept policy by central bankers around the globe, in particular the Fed. Liquidity did not go where central bankers are desperate for it to go (housing), instead it went into food, energy, and the stock market. The president and members of Congress blame speculators.
The third reason gas prices are so high is the US is in a constant state of war for 10 years. Iraq, Afghanistan, and next up Iran. The amount of jet fuel wasted in these endeavors is staggering, so is the amount of gasoline and diesel transporting troops to 140 countries around the globe.

Obama does not want to admit any of the above, so instead he blames the energy companies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

US Offers to "Negotiate" if Iran Surrenders; Thoughts on Negotiation Tactics; Obama Threatens War

Posted: 08 Apr 2012 11:09 AM PDT

President Obama has stepped up the rhetoric against Iran with an offer to "negotiate". His offer is no offer at all, it is a demand to surrender. There will be nothing left to "negotiate" if Iran accepts the offer. This is what Obama demands before "negotiation" begins.

Immediately close and dismantle a recently completed nuclear facility deep under a mountain
Give up and ship out of the country its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent purity
Halt all enrichment even though enrichment to 5 percent does not pose a risk
Allow inspectors full access to all Iranian sites
Allow inspectors access to key nuclear scientists even though many Iranian scientists have been killed

The New York Times reports U.S. Defines Its Demands for New Round of Talks With Iran

The Obama administration and its European allies plan to open new negotiations with Iran by demanding the immediate closing and ultimate dismantling of a recently completed nuclear facility deep under a mountain, according to American and European diplomats.

They are also calling for a halt in the production of uranium fuel that is considered just a few steps from bomb grade, and the shipment of existing stockpiles of that fuel out of the country, the diplomats said.

That negotiating position will be the opening move in what President Obama has called Iran's "last chance" to resolve its nuclear confrontation with the United Nations and the West diplomatically. The hard-line approach would require the country's military leadership to give up the Fordo enrichment plant outside the holy city of Qum, and with it a huge investment in the one facility that is most hardened against airstrikes.

There is disagreement among the Western allies about whether Iran's leaders have made a political decision to pursue a nuclear weapon. American intelligence agencies have stuck to a 2007 intelligence assessment, which found that Iran suspended research on nuclear weapons technology in 2003 and has not decided to take the final steps needed to build a bomb. But Britain and Israel in particular, looking at essentially the same evidence, say that they believe a decision has been made to move to a nuclear-weapons capability, if not to a weapon itself.

Some American officials say they have considerable confidence that if Iran moves to build a weapon, they will detect the signs in time to take military action, though others — notably former Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates — have been more skeptical. American and Israeli officials say they have been more successful in the past few years in intelligence gathering in Iran, both from human sources and drone aircraft, like the stealth RQ-170 Sentinel that was lost over Iran late last year.

Iran's Right to Produce Non-Weapons Grade Nuclear Fuel

Iran has as much right as anyone else to produce non-weapons grade nuclear fuel.

Moreover, having watched the US destroy Iraq for absolutely no reason, one should put itself in Iranian shoes and understand the need for Iran to want to defend itself.

Thoughts on "Negotiation" Tactics

It is common practice in negotiation proceedings to reach for the sky with extreme positions on both sides. It is not common practice to tell the other side we will not even sit down to negotiate if you do not surrender in advance.

Cooler heads might prevail if there was actually something to "negotiate" over.

Obama Threatens War

President Obama made no offer to "negotiate" anything. Rather Obama "Last Chance" message can only be construed as a thinly veiled threat to wage war.

No doubt, the warmongers in Congress and the defense department are angling for just that. However, the US cannot afford and the world does not need another nonsensical war, one that could easily cause the price of gasoline to double or more.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Twitch

Twitch

If you're scouting for a first baseman, you should keep your eyes open for someone with good twitch skills. Insanely fast reflexes, the ability to snatch a ball out of the air, someone who might not be able to run a marathon but is insanely quick with no notice.

Twitch skills used to be rarely needed in the business world. There were certainly people on trading desks or in air traffic control towers who had to have the ability to shoot first and ask questions later, but generally, we rewarded those that could find and stick to the long line.

Not sure if you've noticed, but in the last twelve months, the social internet is emphasizing twitch more than ever before. All that smart phone checking and checking in and name checking and instant rejoindering is amplifying the work of those that are just a little quicker than everyone else.

Twitch is very satisfying. You can go home knowing that you volleyed everything there was to volley that day, that you played the digital cards you were dealt beautifully, that you gained a few followers and a little respect. Twitch is a constant adrenaline rush, during which you have to plan very little and take responsibility for less. Turn inbound into outbound...

Here's the thing: While twitch may pay off in any ten minute cycle, I'm not sure if it gets you very far in the long run, where the long run might be as short as two weeks.

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sâmbătă, 7 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Illinois Admits $83 Billion in Pension Liabilities, $54 Billion in Retiree Health Liabilities, $9 Billion in Current Unpaid Bills; Who is to Blame?
U.S. Local Governments Cut Payrolls to Lowest Level Since 2006
Over 20% of All Real Estate Loans in Spain are Delinquent; Construction Firm Delinquencies Ended 2011 at 17.65%; Late Payment on All Loans Ended 2011 at 7.61%

Illinois Admits $83 Billion in Pension Liabilities, $54 Billion in Retiree Health Liabilities, $9 Billion in Current Unpaid Bills; Who is to Blame?

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 10:43 PM PDT

Illinois has combined $137 billion in pension and healthcare liabilities on top of $9 billion in current unpaid bills. Yet, Illinois legislators will not even ask 6-figure pensioners to pick up a portion of their health premiums.

The Chicago Tribune reports Surprise! You owe another $54 billion

If Springfield won't ask six-figure pension beneficiaries to pick up a portion of their health premiums, what are the odds that state legislators will confront their pension monster?

The state of Illinois admits to $83 billion in pension underfunding, a staggering weight on today's and tomorrow's taxpayers. Add to that the as yet uncalculated billions in unfunded pension obligations for city, county and other local governments.

A second, often overlooked time bomb merrily ticking for governments nationwide is the cost of health insurance for all those retirees. That number, too, is hard to gauge, because health care costs — like future investment returns — are unknowable. Yet governments typically don't put aside money for future health care, as they do for future pensions. The culture is to pay-as-you-go.

In Illinois, that means pay-as-you-go-even-more-broke. The Illinois Policy Institute, a right-leaning think tank, now is releasing 133 pages of frightening data. Beyond that $83 billion in unfunded pensions, state government alone faces an unfunded liability of more than $54 billion in retiree health liabilities over the next 30 years.

During the 2011 deliberations, two groups helped block retiree health reform: lawmakers of both parties who have state institutions (and thus state retirees) in their districts, and well-paid lobbyists whose prior careers in government entitle them to, yes, fat public pensions. If that happens this year, we want to read names.

By the last of the IPI's 133 pages, we conjured one question, then a follow-up:

How could Illinois pols do this to taxpayers?

And come November, will voters finally exact some consequences?

Who is to blame for this mess?

Public unions
Politicians in bed with public unions
Voters who vote for politicians who are in bed with public unions

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

U.S. Local Governments Cut Payrolls to Lowest Level Since 2006

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 10:37 AM PDT

In a much needed development U.S. Local Governments Cut Payrolls to Lowest Level Since 2006

U.S. local-government payrolls fell to the lowest level in more than six years in a sign that municipalities still face fiscal strains almost three years after the end of the recession.

Employment by local governments, adjusted for seasonal hiring swings, dropped by 3,000 in March to 14.1 million, the lowest since February 2006, the U.S. Labor Department reported today. State payrolls helped offset the loss, showing a third straight month of gains, rising 2,000 to 5.1 million. It's the longest streak of job increases at that level since 2008.

Municipalities, which depend largely on property taxes, are probably cutting jobs because the housing market is still rebounding and homeowners are pressing for lower assessments, said Alan Schankel, a managing director at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. State governments, which depend more on income and sales taxes, have also cut local aid to balance budgets in the wake of the recession that ended in June 2009.

State and local-government tax collections grew at the slowest pace in a year in the final quarter of 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau said last month. Revenue rose 2.1 percent from a year earlier to $387.2 billion. While it was the ninth straight advance, it was the smallest jump since the end of 2010. Property taxes rose 0.2 percent from a year before.

States and local governments have cut about 640,000 jobs combined since public-sector employment peaked in 2008.

Not Even Half The Battle

Unfortunately, firing useless bureaucrats is not even half the battle. Accrued pension benefits is the big problem for cities and states. Except in a handful of bankruptcies, little overall progress has been made.

Needed Steps

End collective bargaining of public unions
National right-to-work laws
Scrap defined benefit pension plans for public employees
Pension reform
Privatize services

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Over 20% of All Real Estate Loans in Spain are Delinquent; Construction Firm Delinquencies Ended 2011 at 17.65%; Late Payment on All Loans Ended 2011 at 7.61%

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 12:10 AM PDT

Some rather shocking delinquency numbers (to mainstream media readers but not readers of Mish, Acting Man, Zero Hedge, Max Keiser, the Slog etc.) have surfaced in Spain.

Courtesy of Google Translate please consider The default property is multiplied by ten since 2008.

Upfront Notes:

The following translation is somewhat choppy, and I present it as is.
Recall that decimal points "." in Euroland are the equivalent of commas "," in the US. Thus "62.366 million" should read as 62,366 million or 62.366 billion euros.
Many of the following just released numbers are as of the end of 2011. Rest assured numbers as of the end of the first quarter of 2012 are much worse.

With those notes out of the way, please consider the following translation.

Since the crisis began in 2008, the Spanish financial sector accounts have been seriously damaged by late payment of real estate companies, which rose from 1.98% in the first quarter of this year to 20.9% it closed 2011.

According to recent data published by the Bank of Spain of 298.267 million euros to the Spanish financial institutions were granted at the end of last year to real estate companies were delinquent 62.366 million, a figure that grew by 4.789 million in one quarter. In fact, between July and September 2011, the delinquent real estate companies stood at 18.97%, as there were 57.577 million euros a portfolio outstanding of 303,506,000.

As for the interannual evolution, real estate delinquencies rose seven basis points from 13.98% recorded in the last quarter of 2010 to 20.9% one year later, for a real estate loan portfolio totaled 315.782 million then , which fell in that period 17.605 million.

The Bank of Spain data also reflect strong growth in the delinquency of construction firms, and ended the year with 17.65% of outstanding claims, well above the 12.12% they had in December 2010. Compared to the previous quarter, the difference was just over one and a half points, as it stood at 16.09%.

The real estate and construction activity has gone from being the main driver of the Spanish economy its biggest drag in just four years, as has happened with the accounts of banks, which carry a much lower overall arrears of these depressed sectors .

In particular, late payment of credit extended by banks, savings banks, cooperatives and credit institutions closed 2011 at 7.61%, its highest level of the previous 17 years, particularly since November 1994 when it stood at 8%. This rise in defaults is a result of increased bad debts, which in December 2011 reached the EUR 135 838 000 134 227 000 compared to November, according to Bank of Spain.

Of that amount, the questionable real estate and construction touched the 80,000 million euros, standing at 79.759 million, which means that 58.7% of defaults across the Spanish financial sector came from this sector. But the situation was much worse a year ago, as the unpaid real estate accounted for 73% of total bank dubious, almost three quarters of the portfolio outstanding.

Meanwhile, the total credit portfolio of banks, savings banks, cooperatives and credit institutions fell to 1.782 billion euros in December, from 1.785 billion that were awarded in November.

Most mainstream media is woefully late in reporting this kind of news even though it is generally available with a bit less of a lag in Spain.

More importantly, some of us have predicted this catastrophe far in advance. Thus, what is shocking to many Johnny-come-lately analysts is simply a realization of what had to happen.

A few of us insisted from the get-go that Greece, Spain, and Portugal would all blow sky high, and that process is clearly underway now. The party is not over yet because those countries, and perhaps even Italy are destined to leave the Eurozone (or extract equivalent punishment out of Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and France).

Mathematically this must happen, so it will. Delays and bailouts will increase the costs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

luni, 9 aprilie 2012

Watch Live: Easter Egg Roll

Seth's Blog : Is everyone entitled to their opinion?

Is everyone entitled to their opinion?

More Recent Articles

duminică, 8 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Twitch

Twitch

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sâmbătă, 7 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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luni, 9 aprilie 2012

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duminică, 8 aprilie 2012

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sâmbătă, 7 aprilie 2012

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