Central Perk

vineri, 13 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Massive Jump in Bank of Spain Borrowing from ECB: Bank of Spain Balance Sheet Shows Spain Deep in Trouble, LTRO is Essentially Useless

Posted: 13 Apr 2012 11:13 AM PDT

CDS rates to protect against default by Spain rose to an all-time high today as Investors brace for more pain in Spain.

Spain was firmly back in the spotlight on Friday, after news of a sharp rise in borrowing by the region's banks from the European Central Bank triggered losses across European stocks, but especially for the IBEX 35 index XX:IBEX -3.58% , which fell more than 3% to a three-year low.

The yield on the 10-year government bond in Spain ES:10YR_ESP +0.0004% , which had appeared to get some relief in the latter half of the week, resumed a climb upward, rising 15 basis points to around 5.93%.

The cost of insuring Spanish government debt against default using credit-default swaps, or CDS, rose to an all-time high. The five-year Spanish CDS spread widened to 505 basis points from 476 basis points on Thursday, according to data provider Markit.

That means it would now cost $505,000 annually to insure $10 million of Spanish government debt against default for five years.

Data released by the Bank of Spain showed gross borrowing from the central bank hit 316.3 billion euros ($416.7 billion) in March, up from €169.86 billion in February.

Massive Jump in Bank of Spain Borrowing from ECB

Inquiring minds are digging into Consolidated Balance Sheet of the ECB and by the Bank of Spain, searching for clues about the LTRO program for the entire Eurozone and also for Spain in isolation.

Consolidated Balance Sheet of Eurosystem
Net Lending to Credit Institutions

click on chart for sharper image

During March alone, the LTRO expanded by 433.236 billion but main refinance operations shrank by 87.821 billion. In March alone, 301.424 billion was parked right back with the ECB.

Please consider Spain.

Consolidated Balance Sheet of Banco De Espana

click on chart for sharper image

ECB system-wide lending in March went up by 39.690 billion euros.
ECB lending to Bank of Spain alone jumped by 75.168 billion euros.

Thus, lending shrank by 35.478 billion euros elsewhere. What did Spanish banks do with the money? They parked it in sovereign bonds are now underwater on the purchases.

If you were looking for specific details as to why CDS rates for Spain hit an all-time high, there you have it.

Will There Be A 'Corralito' in Spain?

In response to Black Market in Spain: Cash Transactions Exceeding 2,500 Euros Now Banned, Gonzalo Lira pinged me with Will There Be A 'Corralito' in Spain?

The "corralito" ("little bullpen") was when the Argentine government limited weekly transactions to AR$250 a week back in 2001.

In my piece, I argue that a "corralito" would be part of a Spanish withdrawal from the eurozone—and on cue, Rajoy is on the road to implementing it.

There is no solution to the Spanish problem except EMU exit and devaluation.

Lira's target date for Spain exit from Eurozone this year is certainly debatable, but economically-speaking it is bound to happen as the current setup is extremely unstable and worsening every day.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Closer Look at Unemployment Claims, Covered Employees, Labor Force

Posted: 13 Apr 2012 02:09 AM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace supplied an interesting set of graphs and comments on unemployment claims, the labor force, and employees covered by unemployment insurance.

Unemployment Claims Not Seasonally Adjusted

click on any chart for sharper image

Data for the above chart: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp

Unemployment Benefits

The above chart shows the number of employees that are covered by unemployment benefits. The implication is 11 years of lost jobs almost all of it in the last three years.

The next chart shows that we need to add 17,598,279 to the work force with unemployment benefits coverage just to get back to equivalent coverage of 2001!

Civilian Working Age Population

Data for the above chart: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm

This chart straight from the BLS shows that the number of people of of working age continues to grow. Working age population grew by 28 million since 2001 and 9.4 million since 2008 alone. However, the number of people eligible for benefits is actually 911,000 lower than in 2001.

Percentage of Labor Force Covered by Benefits

The above chart divides the number of people in benefits producing jobs as shown by the Department of Labor report by the number of people in the age appropriate to labor from the BLS report and returns a percentage of people actually participating in a benefits producing job out of that potential labor pool.

From a peak of 59.4% in 2001 we have plummeted down to 52.2% right now in April 2012. And the number is lower than last year, significantly lower than 2010, far lower than 2009, etc. This does not imply an improving labor market but rather clearly demonstrates the continued deterioration of workforce in the USA and probable pressure on those working to provide even greater amounts of their income to those not working.

This 52.2% is a very scary number. It says 47.8% of those of working age are either not working or they are self-employed with no benefits.

The above charts and commentary from Tim Wallace. Thanks Tim!

Given the volatility of weekly claims data, I asked Tim to produce a 6-week moving average of claims vs. the same six week in prior years at the end of the month.

Six weeks should be sufficient to smooth out Easter or Thanksgiving effects, and if not, we can just add another week at such times to cover it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

The Kony Kraze [Infographic]
Inside Foxconn Factory: Exclusive look at how an iPad is Made
French Hotel Lets You Live Like a Hamster

The Kony Kraze [Infographic]

Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:49 PM PDT

KONY 2012 is a film created by Invisible Children, Inc. to promote the organization's mission to bring attention to Ugandan war criminal Joseph Kony's alleged crimes. Invisible Children, Inc. hopes that by spreading the story of victims of Kony, he will be captured and punished for his actions. While Kony is still considered the head of the LRA, a guerilla group in Uganda, and was indicted for war crimes at the Hague, he has evaded capture. Some are unsure if he's even still alive. The KONY 2012 film was released March 5, 2012, with an initial goal of 500,000 shares. Nobody could have imagined the reaction and backlash the film created.

Click image to see a larger version.

Via: Onlineschools

Inside Foxconn Factory: Exclusive look at how an iPad is Made

Posted: 12 Apr 2012 09:12 PM PDT

Marketplace Shanghai Bureau Chief Rob Schmitz is the second reporter to go inside Foxconn the Apple's Chinese producer. In this exclusive video, see highlights from his tour of the assembly line and the Foxconn campus and facilities to see what living and working conditions are like for the hundreds of thousands of workers there.

Schmitz revealed, that there are 240,000 people working inside the Foxconn factory. "Nearly 50,000 of them live on campus in shared dorm rooms," he wrote.

French Hotel Lets You Live Like a Hamster

Posted: 12 Apr 2012 07:33 PM PDT

For 99 euros ($148) a night, a guest can stay in the "Hamster Villa," in Nantes, France, where they can sleep like a hamster drink like a hamster, eat grains like a hamster and a wheel to run in. The owner who was dressed as a hamster for the interview says "often, the adults who come here have hamsters when they were small."

Overcoming Your Winter of Dis-Content - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 12 Apr 2012 02:03 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Are you and your content suffering from the blues after this long Winter? Well have no fear, warmer weather is here and it's time to overcome that winter of dis-"content". Today we will be talking about 5 ways to overcome the content fatigue you may be experiencing. After watching the videos, please share the ways you help keep your content fresh, unique, and successful.

Video Transcription

Howdy, SEOmoz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we are trying to help you overcome the winter of your discontent, meaning, well, really the winter of your dis-content. You see, I hear a lot of people talking in the industry about the challenge of successful content marketing and I understand. Producing content is hard. If you don't produce great, fantastic, amazing content, it tends to do this: launch, reach some people, fall flat on its face. This is sad, this is tragic, this is frustrating. It makes you not want to invest in content anymore. I understand that, and I want to give you some strategies, some specific strategies that will help you overcome this problem.

My top five are, number one, precede your shares, whether that's links, whether that's people talking about it in social media, whether that's people e-mailing it and sharing it, whatever it is, by including the people that you want to share in the process itself. This sounds complex. It's not that hard.

Here's what I mean. Imagine doing this. These are the people I want to share this. I'm going to send them a survey. I'm not even going to send them a survey. I'm going to send them an e-mail. That e-mail is going to say, "Hey, we'd love your help with a blog post I'm going to write or an article I'm going to write or an infographic I'm launching. Which of the following five appeals the most to you?" Guess what? Not only do you get from them the response that says, "Oh, yeah, this one, that's the one that I really am interested in. That's the one that I think is the best idea of the bunch that you've got," but once you get that feedback, that person has now bought in.

So when you launch it, you can e-mail them again and say, "Hey, remember that thing you helped me with? Really appreciate it. You rock, dude, and by the way, we made it. Here it is. Can you check it out? Give me any feedback." Then once you launch it, you can ask them for their help in sharing. By involving these people, and it doesn't have to be just a survey. It can be something where you actually get data from them, where you interview them, where you're featuring them in videos, or you're featuring their content in some way or whatever it is, but involving the people that you want to share in the process or the content itself means that you're going to get them helping you. This works tremendously well. This will help you get over that problem.

Number two, try to appeal to an influential or underserved or marginalized or politically, culturally, cohesive and connected group. Here's what I mean by this. What I mean is that there are a lot of times on the Web when we're trying to find a group of individuals who are going to share something. If you can find a group that already feels passionate about a topic, for example, in this case, I've got these guys, right, and they really care about the open source movement. You can find someone who cares about a political issue, an issue like taxes or gay marriage or fashion or whatever it is, but they have to be passionate and they have to be united and unified around that, and you're essentially going to leverage the unified power of that existing community and produce content that appeals directly to them.

For a ton of people who are in B2C and B2B, there are a lot of opportunities to do this even if you think you're in a boring industry, because supporting a cause, making a large donation, essentially running a promotion that helps something can get that group behind you and can get that group sharing. That's why so many companies support things like breast cancer awareness or a multiple sclerosis run or whatever it is, because it's powerful in and of itself. It helps create great branding, and it means that you're going to get things shared. When you can do this content-
wise on the Web for an event, for a promotion, for whatever it is, this can really go a long way.

Number three, turn things that are interesting, data in particular that's interesting but poorly formatted data, so what I mean by this is something that's hidden in a PDF somewhere, something that's just literally a list of bullet points that exists in a slide show on Slideshare, something that's merely a few data things that someone shared in a blog post but hasn't turned visual yet, and make it exciting and interesting. So make that beautiful and useful through whatever sort of graphic system or visual system you can, and then go and reach out to the people who made it and get their review, their buy-in, their approval, because when you do that, you not only make sure that you're protected against any legal problems, but you also get their community and themselves behind that. Of course, you can share with them and give that to them and they'll promote it. They'll help you promote it because, of course, you're citing them and you're saying that they're the source and you're helping them to look good. So of course they're going to help you to look good. This is a great way to build up some industry credentials, some respect in your sphere, as well as to get a better content piece to launch.

Number four, popular conversations and discussions are happening all the time in whatever industry you're in. I guarantee they are. If you're in the startup world, Hacker News has all sorts of discussions all the time. If you're in the meme space, there are all sorts of things going on, on Reddit. If you're in the political world, there are all sorts of things going on in political forums and blogs and the news and that kind of stuff. No matter your sphere, there's almost always interesting conversations. If you're having trouble finding these, I highly recommend going and searching on Topsy.com. Just take a look at that website, and you'll be able to find a ton of opportunities. Just search for your keywords. Broad industry keywords are best. I wouldn't go for very highly specific things, but you'll find a lot of content.

Then jump in. Essentially, I want you to jump into those conversations and continue them. Add to them, and by the way, please, by all means, ping the people. Send an e-mail over to the person who wrote it and say that you did. Go find their profile of whoever it is through Follower Wonk and tweet back at them. Go find your connections on LinkedIn. Go talk to the people who are already engaged in the conversation. Make them aware of the content that you've produced. Then they will be likely to check it out and also to share it. It really, really helps when you're looking to join a new industry or become a voice inside an industry, gain some thought leadership and get that content out there.

Number five, my last and final one, is just too easy. Rank stuff. I'm serious. Rank anything. Rank people. Rank social media profiles. Rank blogs. Rank content. Rank companies. Rank investment bankers. I don't care what you rank. If you rank things, then people who are high in those rankings will want to share that information, and people who are in the industry will look to that as a leadership board. The more beautiful and creative you make this and the better job you do with real data, so gathering data that people would actually think is influential and should be in the rankings, this works tremendously well and it works every single time. I'm constantly amazed that more people in more industries don't take it upon themselves to rank interesting people, interesting blogs, interesting websites, interesting companies, whatever it is, in their sphere because this is just an easy, easy win in the content sphere.

All right, everyone, I hope that you're over your winter of discontent. I hope to see some great content from you in the future. Take care, and we'll see you again for another edition of Whiteboard Friday.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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A Small Success Story Inspired by SEOmoz and its Contributors

Posted: 12 Apr 2012 05:20 AM PDT

Posted by Aran Smithson

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

I’m the e-commerce manager for an online retailer specialising in Coat Hangers, yeah you heard right, coat hangers; and you thought your niche was tough?

We don’t have thousands of inbound links from a myriad of high PR sites, yet we are catching up to the big players in our niche. In December we were no where to be found on the majority of our search terms. Our traffic mainly came from brand searches, which we liked as we pride ourselves on our superb levels of customer service (honestly when I joined I was astonished we could turn a profit with the amount of customer service going on), thus we get a lot of returning customers.

Producing link worthy content for the site has been an uphill struggle, gaining ground in the social sphere is like chewing through leather and guest posting and the like are tough. No one is interested in Clothes Hangers. Granted we have produced guest posts on a few blogs relating to fashion, clothing and even a few ‘moms blogs’. However we quickly exhausted that avenue and needed to look somewhere new.

A meme, a meme, my kingdom for a meme

One day I had a rush of inspiration whilst reading a SEOmoz article on producing an infographic to generate inbound links. There aren’t many interesting stats and facts relating to hangers, thus I decided to go down the meme route.

I jumped on the “Keep Calm and Don’t Panic” band wagon that’s been rolling through the UK/USA in recent months. It’s a saying from a Public Safety poster campaign from the UK in WW2. It sprung a meme with lots of alternative sayings (I’m sure your have seen them for yourself).

My unique twist was to change the saying to “Keep Calm and Hang On”. I also replaced the crown on the poster with an outline of a hanger. See what I did? (see right)

You simply cannot teach that kind of wit. “Hang on”, we sell hangers! (wow tough crowd).

I began my social campaign which involved the following steps;

Pinned to Pinterest with a solid description, tweeted the pin to my twitter followers.
Shared the graphic with my 20 or so Facebook friends, of whom 10 shared it with their friends.
Waited several hours then tweeted the link to my blog page and asked for an RT. Also hash tagged with some relevant tags.
Posted the image to our Tumbler blog.
Added it to our Flickr gallery, and several related Flickr groups.
Posted to reddit, stumble etc.
I also ensured that our blog had the means for users to social bookmark and share the page themselves.

The results

It’s been almost a week since I posted the blog entry and shared it with my social sphere and I’m happy with the results.

My website had circa an additional 300 visitors over the week, not a great deal but around about 5% of my weekly traffic for nothing!
Out of my additional visitors I found that 9 had actually bought something (3% conversion rate from a random untargeted graphic!!)
My Tumblr post was re-tagged 7 times. (that’s like 7 do follow links!)
My tweet was retweeted 4 times.
My Pinterest pin was re-pinned once (so far)
I got 2 Facebook likes and a few shares
Very little activity came from Flickr, but still I made sure I added a link in the image description.

Conclusion

Not a great amount of social coverage and certainly not viral, but all this literally took me 30 mins. If I make 1 hour a week to do something cool like this, over the weeks I’m building up plenty of natural links, no spam and no black hat in sight.

The lasting effect from this is I gained;

A few extra customers (whom I hope will come back and shop again)
300 extra website visitors who may return one day
My brand was exposed to many many more people.
7 links from relatively good Tumblr pages.
6 links from Pinterest
A little bit of Facebook love and 3 links

vineri, 13 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Overcoming Your Winter of Dis-Content - Whiteboard Friday

Overcoming Your Winter of Dis-Content - Whiteboard Friday

Video Transcription

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

vineri, 13 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Overcoming Your Winter of Dis-Content - Whiteboard Friday

Overcoming Your Winter of Dis-Content - Whiteboard Friday

Video Transcription

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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